Tuesday 17 September 2019

Trump stuck between war and diplomacy with Iran

The US is rapidly gathering evidence to try and prove that it was Iran and not Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen who fired armed drones and cruise missiles at the two Saudi oil plants at the weekend. One US official is already being quoted on CBS as saying they have pinpointed the location of the base fron where the drones and missiles were launched. In southern Iran. We shall see. Pinpointng the launch of a ballistic missile is relatively straightforward but plotting the course of a low-flying cruise missile or drone is not nearly so easy. But if this US official is authoritatively saying a southern Iranian base was where it had all started from, then the world will need to see the evidence. If it's 100 per cent true and the international community, including Russia and China, believe it to be accurate, then watch out Iran. There will be retaliation of some sort. The trouble for Trump is that he has this yearning to do a Kim Jong-un with Hassan Rouhani. In other words hold a love-in summit somewhere nice with the Iranian president and talk man-to-man about how important it is for Iran to be loved and respected as part of this planet and to stop being horrible and malevolent and violent and odious and domineering. Such a wonderful idea!! But if Trump is told by his national security advisers that for the sake of world stability and America's reputation and the future of those nice Saudis, a military strike of some significance should be launched on the drone and cruise missile base in southern Iraq, then what does he do? Because sure as hell if the US gets involved in a bombing operation against Iran, he can give up for ever having his longed-for summit with Rouhani. It was a pretty long shot anyway but Trump truly believes in his skills to woo the most awful people back to sanity. So bomb Iran or stick to diplomacy? If it's to be bombing then there is no question the proof of Iran's guilt for the Saudi oil plant attacks has to be copper-bottomed. Will Russia and China give their support? I seriously doubt it. And bombing always has unintended consequences. Oh dear, thank goodness I'm not president of the United States!

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