Monday, 30 September 2019

The Alice in Wonderland political solution to Trump and Boris

I have commented before how the United States and United Kingdom are going through the same sort of political breakdown, particularly at the top. Trump and Boris are both fighting for their political lives and the two countries are veering towards catastrophe. I have predicted nevertheless, that Trump will survive and will probably win a second term in 2020, and Boris will scrape through the Brexit and leadership crises and emerge the other side still as prime minister. But let's take a look at an extreme scenario in which neither of these predictions bear fruit. Here is the most radical outcome and you could say an Alice in Wonderland situation that could materialise even though it seems highly unlikely. But not impossible. Let's take the US first. The Democrat impeachment drumbeat gets louder and louder and more revelations emerge about secret and devastatingly embarrasssing conversations between Trump and other foreign leaders. The Ukraine phone chat had been archived into a very secret storage site with special codes, and it seems that Trump calls to Putin and to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, that nice gentleman from Saudi Arabia, are also put into this top secret treasure trove. Putin is so alarmed that his talks with Trump might come to light that the Kremlin has already made it clear that they must remain secret. Ooooh, there must be some lively stuff there I guarantee. And heaven knows what sort of promises Trump made to his friend, the Crown Prince. Could Trump have ever said on his secret phone, "Don't worry about the Khashoggi bloke. I hate the media too." The Democrat-run House committees investigating impeachment allegations would love to get their hands on these transcripts I have no doubt. Anyway under the Alice in Wonderland scenario, the cry for impeachment becomes so overwhelming that when the House sends it on to the Senate, a dozen or so Republican senators decide to jump ship and support the Democrats. And somewhere along the line Vice President Mike Pence gets caught in the murky discoveries and his chance of replacing Trump as president for the rest of the four-year term is scuppered. The Senate trial votes for impeachment by a small majority and Donald Trump is marched from office. Mike Pence goes with him, disgraced in some way or other. All hail President Nancy Pelosi, third in line to the throne as Speaker of the House under the dear old US constitution. President Pelosi rules until January 19 2021 and then hands over to president-designate Elizabeth Warren. Right that's the US done. Now I turn to the UK. Boris struggles as more and more controversies, not least his private life, get thrust onto the front pages. He fails to get a Brexit deal in time for the October 31 deadline and after a revolt within his cabinet he is ousted as prime minister by an opposition plot. As part of the plot, for the few weeks before a general election can be held, former deputy leader of the Labour Party, Harriet Harman, agrees to become caretaker prime minister of a national unity government. The day she moves into Number 10, Harriet Harman gets a phone call from President Nancy Pelosi. "Hya, Harriet, how you doing? Nancy here. We girls must stick together."

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