Sunday 15 September 2019

Could there be a Northern Ireland solution to the Brexit impasse?

There has been much talk about a watering down of the infamous Irish backstop clause in the three-times-rejected Theresa May withdrawal agreement for the UK to leave the EU. The main obstacle has been Arlene Foster and her nine other Democratic Unionist party of Northern Ireland colleagues who have refused point blank ever to consider anything which might mean their province is somehow more attached to the EU than any other part of the United Kingdom. Absolutely point blank. No No No!! Theresa May got round this huge obstruction by agreeing to allow the whole of the United Kingdom to remain in the EU's customs union so that there was never any question of imposing border checks between north and south of the island of Ireland. At the time it seemed the only way out. But of course parliament hated it because it meant the UK, after leaving the EU, would still be stuck like a Kafka novel scenario inside the EU for ever. Well, inside its customs union, and as a result the UK would be unable to go seeking wonderful trade deals outside the EU, such as the United States, because we would still be governed by EU trade regulations. Ever since then we've been back to square one and whenever any politician, especially Boris Johnson, hints that the Irish backstop should go go go, Arlene Foster with her implacable face turns up on TV to denounce any such move, whether it be removing the backstop or watering it down or rephrasing it. Yet here we are now focusing on this very issue again and, apparently Boris is revisiting the idea of having a Northern Ireland-only arrangement while the rest of the UK remains totally outside the EU customs union. The EU has responded with cautious enthusiasm that this could break the deadlock and lead to a deal after all. Boris keeps on coming out and saying he's hopeful of getting a deal and it's largely based on this idea of a special arrangement for Northern Ireland. The Times newspaper even reported that the DUP was now moving slowly towards supporting such an idea and that this meant the Big Breakthrough could be upon us. But lo and behold up pops Ms Foster and says, for the millionth time, No No No. No watering down, no special arrangement. No border checks on the Irish Sea. No nothing. Northern Ireland HAD to be treated the same as every other region in the UK. Behind the scenes I'm sure Ms Foster is engaged in all kinds of deal-making. Perhaps in exchange for a huge amount of money for Northern Ireland she might contemplate something other than No No No. I have no idea whether this is true but I do recall that Theresa May agreed for the Treasury to dish out £1 billion to Northern Ireland in exchange for the DUP's guarantee to support her minute-majority government. That was pretty blatant bribery. This is very different now because the DUP is adamant it won't allow the province to have anything to do with the EU's regulations once the UK has left the union. But there HAS to be a watering down of the Irish backstop if Boris is going to get his deal and stop Jeremy Corbyn from ousting him from power. Ms Foster knows that more than anyone, so could there be a fudge in the making? All the whispers from within the government and the EU suggest this is exactly what is happening. Hmmmm, we'll see.

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