Trump has to "win" the war in Iran before midterms

If the war with Iran is still going on by the midterm elections in November, Donald Trump could be a big loser. The Republicans could lose the House of Representatives and maybe even the Senate. So the president has less than six months to find a solution which he would be able to describe as a victory. Iran is not going to help him. In fact with this setting up of the so-called Persian Gulf Strait Authority which Tehran intends to use as a way of charging all ships fees for passing through the chokepoint (possibly sharing the funds with Oman across the water), it means the Islamic revolutionary rulers in Iran will become the Mafia bosses of the strait. It's protection money - "you pay a fee or else we attack you and burn your ship". Trump could never describe that as a victory. Likewise, if the nuclear issue is not reolved that will also prevent Trump from ending the war satisfactorily. One way or another, those 440.9 kilos of 60-per-cent-enriched uranium, lying buried under damaged nuclear plants, has to be uncovered and sent out of Iran. If not, it will remain a permanent worry for the White House and for the Middle East, and for all of us. So, what can Trump do in the next six months to save Congress from being handed to the Democrats in November? Restart widescale bombing of military targets might look good but what will it actually achieve? Giving in to Iran's Strait of Hormuz blackmail would be a political disaster. So there is only one option for Trump. He must tell Tehran that he plans to redouble the blockade of all Iranian ports for an indefinite period unless Iran stops interfering in the Strait of Hormuz. And as an added warning, Trump should tell Tehran that if it fails to back away from the strait, he will order the Pentagon to bomb every nuclear site for a period of two weeks until they are totally destroyed. Then see what the mullahs do!

Iran tries to make control of the Strait of Hormuz official

Iran is getting more confident about taking over the Strait of Hormuz. It has formed a special authority to be in charge of the key part of the chokepoint in order to dictate who can go through and who can't and to charge a fee. It's outrageous but the regime in Tehran has geography on its side and it's going to be a huge challenge for Donald Trump and the whole shipping world. What in practical terms can Trump do to prevent Iran absorbing the strait under its control? It doesn't seem to matter how many aircraft carriers the US Navy sends to the Gulf or how many guided-missile destroyers. The fact is, the Iranians are sitting pretty on their land overlooking the strait and they have most of the cards in their hands. Unless, of course, Trump authorises a massive military operation to seize a chunk of Iranian coastline and put troops everywhere to make sure ships get through without being interfered with or charged. Just bombing everything won't make a difference. It has to be troops on the ground. But Iran knows for sure Trump doesn't want to do that. So before the US/Israeli strikes began on February 28, tankers and other vessels were passing through the strait without any interference from Iran. Now it has totally changed. So the war has made things worse, not better. As for the nuclear issues, that is still in limbo. So, where are we, nearly twelve weeks into the war? We've gone backwards, everything is worse than it was before February 28.Someone very clever has to sort this out once and for all. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER. WATERSTONES, ROWANVALE BOOKS, AMAZON.

UK government hits a storm over lifting of Russian oil ban

It couldn't have come at a worse time. The Labour government in UK has eased the ban on Russian oil imports because of the crisis over supply. It's not crude oil but refined oil for jet fuel and diesel and it's refined in India and Turkey. But it's still Russian oil. So, great news for Putin and his war effort in Ukraine and bad news for the UK which is supposed to be one of the leading nations helping Ukraine to fight off the Russians. It's also bad timing because in a few weeks there is to be a by-election up in Makerfield when Labour leader contender Andy Burnham hopes to become an MP and stand against Keir Starmer. The Labour government decision to buy Russian oil will play badly for Burnham. Perhaps that's why Starmer made the announcement! The Conservatives and Reform party will focus on this decision at the by-election and, who knows, Burnham might well lose. The reality is that every country is now faced with having to make huge decisions about energy supplies because of the war in Iran. The Strait of Hormuz is closed, so none of the refined oil coming out of the Gulf states which the UK previously relied on, is getting through which is why Labour has had to turn to India and Turkey for jet fuel and diesel. But it started off as Russian oil. So it looks really really bad. The US did the same but not for themselves. Washington just said Russian fuel that was already on its way to be refined for countries that desperately needed it could go ahead. All in all, the war in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has played into Putin's hands very nicely. This guy really does get away with everything. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER. YOU WILL LOVE IT. AMAZON, WATERSTONES, ROWANVALE BOOKS.

Putin is losing the war in Ukraine

I never thought I would say it but Putin has effectively lost the war in Ukraine. He may still occupy 20 per cent of the territory but his troops haven't gained an inch in extra land in the Donbas region for months, and the Ukrainian military's amazing development of counter-drone interceptors, costing a mere $1,000 each, has transformed the battlefield, making it almost impossible for the Russians to carry out successful drone raids. Ukraine, on the other hand, has launched hundreds of long-range drones into Russia, getting as far as the outskirts of Moscow and have hit oil terminals, airbases and power plants. The war is now as much in Russia as it is in Ukraine. This is a staggering achievement by Ukraine, backed now by Europe instead of the US. Everything has gone wrong for Putin. The Russian people are at last waking up to the realisation that their leader is waging a war that is destroying their stability, wrecking the economy and killing hundreds of thousands of their menfolk. The Ukraine fight back has gone through various stages. There was a moment two years ago when it looked as if Russia would grab much more territory and Ukraine would be begging for mercy. But that didn't last long. Ukraine kept going and now the Russian troops must be disillusioned, terrified and desperate to go home. The Ukrainian warfighting industry is the best in the world, everyone wants to learn from them. Sometime this year, Putin will sue for peace, I predict.

Bomb (sorry clock) is ticking for Iran

Donald Trump is preparing to bomb Iran again. He said the clock is ticking but he meant the bomb is ticking, and he has added the extra titbit that if Tehran doesn't sign a peace deal, the US will effectively destroy Iran, by which I assume he means he will annihilate the country's energy infrastructure. I very much doubt he will go ahead and do this. The world would accuse him of an international war crime if he deliberately targets and destroys every power station and oil terminal and gas field. And that wouldn't solve the world's oil crisis anyway and it wouldn't open up the Strait of Hormuz because facing ruin and disaster, the hardline rulers of Iran will fight back and keep the strait shut for ever. Trump's best option is to do everything he and the military can to force open the strait and forget about bombing Iran's energy plants. But that will mean troops on the ground. If Tehran refuses to play ball, then it may be the only thing left for Trump to do. Boots on the ground and the casaulties that will inevitably follow would, however, make Trump's popularity rating, already historically low, take a deep dive, and the mid-term elections in November will end the Republicans' chances of retaining control of the Senate and House of Representatives. It's tricky being prsident of the United States.

The UK in political shambles

This poor country has had so many political upheavals in recent years it is hardly surprising everything seems so depressing and down-at-heel and pessimistic and dreary. All political leaders promise to change things and make everyone happy but invariably fail. In fact most of the time they achieve the opposite. This is the case with the government of Keir Starmer. All the promises have fallen by the wayside. Growth in the economy is minimal, everyone is over-taxed, borrowing by the gobernment is sky-high which means having to pay billions of pounds in interest - what a waste - young people can't get jobs and can't afford housing, and millions upon millions of people are living off benefits. It's a dire situation. Amidst all of this bad news, the Labour government which won a huge majority at the last election is disintegrating. Keir Starmer is surviving as prime minister by his fingertips and probably for not much longer, and eager contenders for the top job are queuing up and stabbing everyone in the back in the process. Everyone seems to think that Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester, will be the great Labour hope, provided he wins a by-election to become an MP again. But what has he really done in his political career so far to give us voters any sense of excitement that he will be The One. The same for the other contenders, Wes Streeting who speaks like a robot, Ed Milliband, who led the Labour party in opposition and was ineffectual, and Angela Rayner, a character no qiestion but a political liability, backed by the unions which means some pretty daft socialist ideas in her head. So whoever steals the premiership from Starmer is going to have to start all over again and instil some sense and intelligence and bravery into the whole political system. Will any of these candidates for Number 10 have a real clue how to go about it? WHAT YOU NEED IS SOME ENTERTAINMENT. SO BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY SPY THRILLER. AMAZON, WATERSTONES, ROWANVALE BOOKS.

Trump tells Taiwan not to go for self-determination

There have been two comments from Donald Trump since he left Beijing which will alarm Taiwan. First he gave no promise that he would authorise the $14 billion in arms package which Congress has presented to the White House, and, second, he warned Taiwan not to go for self-determination. Well, first of all, the US has been supplying arms to Taiwan for ever to help them defend against a possible attack from China, and it would be an extraordinary move if he stopped the weapons sales, although it would be greeted with hurrays by Beijing if he did. Second of all, Taiwan already sees itself as an independent country, separated both geographically and politically from what is always called mainland China. It has a flourishing economy and is the world's largest producer of micro-chips. Taiwan does not want to become another Hong Kong, independent to a degree but still governed and controlled by Beijing. But of course Hong Kong was in a different situation. It was a British colony with a leae that ran out in the 1990s and Britain had no choice but to hand it back to China. Taiwan, formerly known as Formosa, became a republic when it broke away from Beijing after the Chinese civil war in 1949. So, there is no expiring lease as with Hong Kong. But for Trump to tell Taiwan that it should not go for self-determination is a bit rich when the Taiwanese consider themselves to be a totally separate and self-governing republic. These words will have pleased Beijing no end. Trump also said he didn't want to have to travel 9,500 miles to fight a war with China. What does that tell Taiwan, and what does it tell Beijing? PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER. AMAZON, WATERSTONES, ROWANVALE BOOKS.

Donald Trump and Xi Zinping best mates

They certainly made every effort to show that they wanted to be friends, or at least partners in strategic stability, as the Chinese president preferred to put it. The Chinese leader is always full of these sort of homilies. He loves the big language, the elegant phrases, to sum up relationships with other countries. Trump is more direct, he just likes to tell everyone how well they got on. But the big summit in China between Trump and Xi got off to a tricky start when the Chinese president insisted that Taiwan was at the forefront of the relationship he woud have with Trump. In other words, he was telling Trump to leave Taiwan well alone because it was a matter for Beijing to sort out and had nothing to do with Washington. Not once did Trump mention how he might help Taiwan if China tried to take it by force. So, unless something else was said in private to give Xi concerns about how Trump would respond to an attack on Taiwan, the Chinese leader will no doubt be satisfied that he got his message across nice and early. The rest of the summit was all about trade and AI and the need for a fair and just partnership on the global stage. Trump came away with claims of huge success and big deals. But I suspect Xi was also very satisfied with the way things had gone. Over the next few days we will probably get different versions of the summit. But at least there were no diplomatic hiccups.

Trump's dilemma over Strait of Hormuz

With its control of the Strait of Hormuz, the hardline regime in Tehran is holding “a gun to our head”, a former American intelligence and defence chief has warned. CIA director and then defence secretary in the Obama administration, Leon Panetta has a sombre assessment of President Trump’s chances of ending the war in Iran with a satisfactory settlement. “My sense is that it’s very likely this war which was supposed to end after six to eight weeks, is probably going to continue for a number of months,” he told The Times. “This is because we have not found the key to how we achieve, not just a continuing ceasefire, but a resolution to some of the crucial issues which will then allow us to end the war. The president, frankly, has very few options,” he said. Trump has rejected as “garbage” Tehran’s latest response to the White House one-page memorandum of understanding which laid down the principles for a settlement that would be acceptable to the president, including the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, the ending of all uranium-enrichment and the disavowal of any ambition to build a nuclear weapon. Trump has met with military leaders to discuss possible options for a new phase of attacks on Iran, aimed at forcing Tehran to come round to Trump’s way of thinking. But Panetta sees little point in resorting to more bombing. “I question whether additional military action is going to produce any real change in the regime. They’ve been able to withstand a great deal, and from our own intelligence the indication is that they can continue to withstand that kind of impact. So I’m not sure military action provides a key to trying to apply leverage right now,” he said. “The president is going to have to decide: does he continue to seek some kind of quick end to the war? If so, that means he’s got to deal with the Strait of Hormuz, and, at the very least, he has to provide a negotiating mechanism for the nuclear issue. But that process is not there right now,” he said. As CIA director between 2009 and 2011, Panetta was in overall charge of the agency's successful tracking of Osama bin Laden to a compound in Abbottabad in Pakistan. The al-Qaeda leader was shot dead by Seal Team Six special operations troops on May 2, 2011. Panetta served as US defence secretary from 2011 to 2013 during which he lifted the ban on women serving in combat roles and was responsible for implementing President Obama’s decision to pivot more naval power to the Asia-Pacific region to counter China’s rapidly growing military presence. Could Trump, despite his proclaimed reluctance, send troops into Iran to sort out both the reopening of the strait and recover the 400 kilos of highly-enriched uranium buried under at least two sites that were bombed in last June’s Operation Midnight Hammer mission carried out by US and Israeli bombers? “The only justification for putting boots on the ground is if you want to make sure that Iran never controls the Strait of Hormuz,” Panetta said. “When I was secretary of defence, [we concluded] you’ve got to have enough troops to cover 50 miles on each side of the Strait of Hormuz and 100 miles further in to control that entire area. There will be casualties as a result of that kind of effort.” He said there was no support in the US for a mission of that kind - which could require around 200,000 troops - either in Congress or among American people. “The only other way to approach this is to recognise that Iran will have some control, but that the main passage will be operated by an allied coalition which will guarantee free movement of ships without fees. I think that’s a preferable approach. But at this moment in time, Iran has a gun to our head with the closure of the strait. Somehow, we’ve got to find a way to make sure that that gun is not there.” “The reality is, we always knew that Iran would ultimately close the Strait of Hormuz, and we should have had a plan,” he said. “We missed that opportunity. As long as the strait remains closed, as long as they continue to put tremendous pressure on the US and the world economy, we’re not going to get anywhere because they have the leverage.” Reopening the Strait of Hormuz should be the priority for the moment, he said. The nuclear issue could only be resolved with long negotiations, involving experts on both sides who specialised in the subject. Panetta said he wasn’t impressed by Trump’s two negotiators, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law. “They are just two business guys from New York,” he said. “If Iran refuses to deal with the nuclear issue, we always know what the ultimate option is, and in many ways, it’s the gun we have [vis a vis] Iran. They have got to negotiate some kind of approach here, or they will continue to face attacks with regards to their nuclear capability. So, each side is in this situation where they’re waiting for the other side to blink. In many ways, they both consider the other side to be a paper tiger.” He emphasised that both sides’ priority should be to end the war. “rather than continue with this hit and miss approach to the ceasefire, this hit and miss approach to the Strait of Hormuz, and have this thing just continue to ultimately become another permanent Middle East war.” “My biggest concern is that we cannot trust the regime. It’s a hardline regime. We have to wake up to the fact that the IRGC [Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps] and the military basically run that country right now. I can’t trust them and I don’t think the United States can trust them,” Panetta said. “I think they’re also in a position where they wonder if they can trust Donald Trump as president, to stand by whatever agreement is made. My greatest fear is that within another four to five years, no matter if we arrive at any kind of agreement, that ultimately the United States and Israel will be back at war,” he said. Apart from rocketing energy prices around the world as a result of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the other negative repercussions of the war in Iran has been the deterioration in the Transatlantic alliance after European leaders largely refused to back Trump’s war. “[It’s] a period where the United States is increasingly acting alone in terms of whatever objective it’s trying to achieve, and the experience in my 50 years of public life is that the US, if it wants to protect our security, cannot afford to just act on its own.” BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER. AMAZON, WATERSTONES, ROWANVALE BOOKS

Trump's Golden Dome missile shield will cost more than expected!!!

What surprises me is that anyone in Washington should be surprised that a congressional report claims Donald Trump's Golden Dome space-based anti-missile interceptor programme is going to cost, wait for it, $1.2 trillion instead of $175 billion. There is no such thing as an affordable missile shield aimed at preventing any or all missiles fired at your country from wherever. Ronald Reagan discovered that when he came up with his famous Star Wars project in the 1980s. He envisioned a total shield consisting of lasers and particle beams and goodness knows what sitting on platforms in space but it just ran ran ran out of money and was largely abandoned, although all the work done then will no doubt help the Trump Golden Dome concept. But it still won't be affordable. And the truth is that no system will be fullproof, so the word 'shield' is over-egging it. I'm sure Trump will pursue it and get Pete Hegseth to try and deliver the goods. But if at the end of the day the programme really will cost $1.2 trillion or possibly a lot more, then Congress might just dismiss it out of hand. The Pentagon has put forward a defence spending plan for next year of $1.5 trillion, a 40 per cent increase on last year's request. That's a seriously huge increase. But how much of that wil go towards the Golden Dome? I haven't managed to spot the answer yet. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER. AMAZON, WATERSTONES, ROWANVALE BOOKS.

Trump will find it hard to outsmart Xi Zinping

Trump will want to come away from his trip to Beijing with a long list of successes. But if all he gets is a pledge by the Chinese leader Xi Zinping to buy more soya beans from American farmers - one of the things on his to-do list - then that will be a very small diplomatic achievement. Basically, what he wants is for Xi to say he will intervene with the Iranians to open the Strait of Hormuz, probably with the quid pro quo that the US lifts its blockade of Iranian ports. That would be good news indeed. In fact such an arrangement would make a lot of sense. The trouble is, Iran has geography on its side, and once the US warships have gone home, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps will still be there and they can interfere with the Strait whenever they want. But if China backs the deal, then there might be a reasonable chance of it sticking, at least for the forseeable future. The Strait of Hormuz is the absolute key to this crisis. Trump hasn't got the combat manpower in the region to force open the strait, so a deal via Beijing will have to do. But Xi will want a lot in return, like a new arrangement for getting hold of US technology, a lifting of trade tariffs and, best of all, a softer line on Taiwan. Will Trump be prepared to offer such concessions in return for a guaranteed agreement over the strait? He will be tempted.

When Taiwan is raised Trump must remember to stick to the script

The question of Taiwan and Beijing's insistence that the the breakaway republic must be brought back into the Chinese fold has caused problems for previous US presidents. Sticking to the strict format of words to emphasis the American diplomatic approach towards Taiwan has been the crucial factor in developing relations with Beijing. The approach is called strategic ambiguity. In other words, the US agrees not to support Taiwan's battle for independence from Beijing but also does not back China's ambitions to reabsorb the island under its wing. President Joe Biden on four occasions forgot about the carefully drafted words and told questioning reporters that if China invaded Taiwan, the US military would rush to defend the Taiwanese. Each time officials had to clarify his response to point out that the US policy on Taiwan had not changed. Now Donald Trump is heading for Beijing for a two-day meeting with President Xi Zinping, and there are officials in Washington who are keeping their fingers crossed that the president doesn't change the wording of the script and say something that will give hope to Beijing that the US policy has altered. Like, for example, instead of saying that the US does not support Taiwanese independence he might tell Xi he, Trump, opposes Taiwan's independence. Only one word difference but it would be huge for Beijing. No one knows for sure what Trump might say. But there is a possibility he might think he could persuade Xi to urge Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in return for a change in the language over Taiwan. He probably won't but Trump has proved on numerous occasions that he is unpredictable, which is why US officials are so anxious about this summit between Trump and Xi.

Trump and Xi Zinping, two Big Guys

Iran has given its response to the latest US proposal to end the war but we don't yet know what it consists of. But will it give the one thing Donald Trump is desperate to hear: that Iran will not interfere in the Strait of Hormux and will allow international shipping to use the waterway free of charge? If so, then Trump will fly off to Beijing this coming week with a big smile on his face. He needs to be able to tell President Xi Zinping that the oil crisis is over. But I fear that Iran will have responded im a very different way which means Trump's crucial meeting with the Chinese leader on May 14 and 15 will go ahead on a bad footing for the American president. Trump needs to demonstrate to his Chinese counterpart that he has the power to control events and that the war with Iran is effectively over. Instead, he will have to admit to Xi that he hasn't yet found the solution to ending the war. This is likely to have an impact on the two days of talks which Trump would prefer to focus on trade and Taiwan and artificial intelligence. Trump had postponed the meeting with XI in order to have more time to sort out Iran. But Iran and the replaced regime have proved more resilient than expected, and now there is a very real possibility that the war could go on for many more months.

UFOs are back in the news

Amidst all the news about the war in Iran, the continued fighting in Ukraine, the cruise ship with some ghastly rat virus on board and everything else going wrong in this world, it is a relief to read more reports of UFOs courtesy of the Pentagon. Donald Trump has ordered the Pentagon and intelligence services to make public all the decades of classified reports on Unidentified Flying Objects. Many reports have been published over the years, but this time Trump wants everything released to put paid to the con[piracy theory that the US government has been hiding aliens and has been concealing evidence of real alien spaceships. Judging by the latest report today there is nothing new to say. Lots of fun stuff but no confirmation that the objects spotted are being driven by little green or blue aliens. As one wonderful American astronomer said on an American TV news channel, if there are aliens around why are they just visiting the US, why aren't they going to other interesting countries, "like Bulgaria". UFOs are fun but generally there's some sort of explanation for these sightings. However, Barack Obama said the other day that he believed there probably were aliens on another planet but he had seen no evidence, and he was the president of the US for eight years.But let's have a look at whatever else the Pentagon has locked away. You just never know!

Can Iran ever be trusted?

Even if a deal is signed and sealed and the war is over, can Iran be trusted to abide by the agreement? Under its revolutionary regime, there is little incentive for the Iranian rulers to abide by anything agreed with the hated United States. One of the items being discussed apparently as part of a settlement is a promise by Iran not to build any more underground bunkers for uranium-enrichment production. But Iran is doing just that right now with its so-called Pickaxe Mountain facility south of the nuclear plant at Natanz. At this new complex which is still under construction, the bunkers are buried 2,000ft under granite, beyond even the biggest of America's bombs to reach. US satellites have spotted Iranian workers piling in concrete to make it the most invulnerable nuclear bunker they have ever built. Will this be dismantled under a deal with the US? If not, it will provide Iran with the perfect underground plant to continue enriching uranium to bomb-grade level. The nuclear issue, the mnost important one to address, is nowhere near being resolved. The talk at present is for a moratorium on enriching uranium beyond the acceptable 3.67 per cent which can be used for medical purposes. The deal will also have Iran agreeing in writing not to develop nuclear weapons. But they have already done the hard graft and are closer than they have ever been to producing a bomb. Obviously at present, with the US firepower in the region ready to strike, there has been no evidence of Iran trying to recover the 440 kilos of 60 per cent-enriched uranium lying buried in canisters at Isfahan and Natanz. If there is a peace deal, the contingency plan for US special forces to attempt to grab the uranium is off the books. That means, Iran's ambition to possess a nuclear bomb will never go away.

Peace is breaking out or is it?

One moment it's all over and the next it's back to the familiar threats about hitting Iran harder than ever. I don't believe for a minute that Donald Trump wants to start bombing Iran all over again. He is desperate - and more desperate than Iran - to find a settlement that he can sell as a victory. But there really isn't much of a smell of victory in the air. The best he can hope for is a mini deal leading to a bigger settlement at a later stage. This is now what appears to be happening. The leaked report to Axios that a one-page memorandum is close to being drawn up which states the main agreements so far, with a 30-day period to conclude the rest of the details, had everyone thinking there was at at last an agreement. But almost as soon as this memo was revealed, there was a warning from Tehran that nothing had been decided and that the so-called memo was just a wish list by the White House. This can't be the case. Trump wouldn't have stopped the operation to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz if he thought Iran wasn't interested in a deal. So, there is clearly something going on behind the scenes, with Pakistan acting as mediator. But now we're back to threats from Trump to Iran to sign or else. I hope the war has come to an end. But will it really be good news for Trump, something optimistic he can take to Beijing next week when he is due to meet with Xi Zinping? By the end of this week, we should know the answer.

Trump has only one option for Iran

Iran is getting cockier by the way. They think they are winning, that they have Trump over an (oil) barrel and that if they keep obstructing the Strait of Hormuz, Trump will be forced to back down. So what options does Trump have? It still seems amazing that after more than nine weeks of war with a sort of ceasefire thrown in, the US still cannot say: Iran has been defeated, all of its missiles and drone factories have been busted and their navy of fast-attack boats has been cremated. This is what Trump should be able to claim, but Iran is nowhere near being defeated because they still have hundreds of these fast-attack boats armed with mines and missiles, they still have production lines pouring out drones and they have enough missiles left to target not just the US Navy but also the Gulf states' energy installations. What happened? Why has Iran still got all these warfighting assets? Why hasn't the US onliterated the coastlne hideaways from where these fast boats are emerging every day. This is the only option for the moment for Trump: keep the naval blockade going. keep escorting commercial vessels through the Strait, but at the same time, blast everything in sight along that coastline. The big navy may be destroyed - ie what frigates and patrol craft they had - but the small navy with the huge stock of attack boats, is still functioning very well. Trump loves the word 'obliterate'. So why hasn't he obliterated this deadly small-scale navy, so they cvan no longer threaten the Strait?

US Navy overworked in Gulf

The US Navy hasn't been so busy for a long time. First, two carrier strike groups and guided-missile destroyers were heasvily involved in Operation Epic Fury, hitting targets in Iran, then Donald Trump wanted a naval blockade, so off went the destroyers to block all Iranian ports along the Gulf waterway, and now, as from today, the same destroyers are starting to escort and protect hundreds of commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. How can there be enough destroyers in the area to carry out all these tasks? I rechon there can't be more than a dozen guided-missile destroyers available for these missions, unless the Pentagon finds a lot more and redeploys them to the region. Iran has said that escorting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz which they claim for their own, is an act of war and will break the ceasefire. But Trump has called it an act of humanity which it pretty much is. These ships and their crews have been stuck for weeks and they are running out of food. So, Trump is right. But Iran could well start to attack US warships who dare to go through the strait. Then it's all back to war. Trump won't stand for that and he will probably declare an end to the ceasefire and restart bombing of any targets still left untouched. Either way, the shooting is bound to start once again. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER PAPERBACK, SEQUEL TO SHADOW LIVES.

Ukraine's lesson-learning warfighting skills

The war in Ukraine has been going on for so long - four years and two and a bit months - that the rest of the world, with the exception of Russia, may have become disinterested and ignorant about what the Ukrainian armed forces have amazingly achieved. They are fighting a neighbour with everything from nuclear weapons and hypersonic missiles to long-range cruise missiles but have not just survived (ok, no nukes used yet thank God), they have shown the US and Nato how to confront Russia. They have developed brilliant ways to counter the threat posed by the Iran-supplied Shahed drones, they have designed long-range drones of their own to target Russian airbases, navy and energy plants and they have forced the mighty Russian army to a halt. Ukrainian soldiers must be exhausted but they have saved their country by adapting fantastically to modern warfare. Russia kills Ukrainians most days but Kyiv's drones and missiles are causing devastating destruction and killing so many Russian troops that Putin is running out of a male labour force to keep things going back at home. The Russian leader always looks cocky on television when he is seen greeting some visiting politician or dignitary. But deep down, he must now be scared that Ukraine is actually going to defeat him. Putin may have to beg for a peace settlement that will be more in Kyiv's favour than Moscow's. How amazing would that be? Watch this space. Please buy Agent Redruth, my new spy thriller paperback. Amazon, Rowanvale Books, Waterstones

Chancellor Mertz should apologise

Why on earth Chancellor Mertz thought it was wise, necessary or justified to declare that the US has been humiliated by Iran is a matter for him. But his statement has brought relations between Washington and Berlin to a new low. And now, in retaliation, Donald Trump is to pull 5,000 American troops out of Germany to punish Mertz for his indiscretion. It strikes me that European leaders are suddenly feeling more confident about criticising Trump, never mind the consequences. But this is bad diplomacy, bad leadership and very bad for the Nato alliance which, of course, is still led by the US. What does Mertz want? Does he want to split the alliance? Does he think the alliance should become a Germany-led organisation and kick out the Americans? If so, no one is going to thank him, least of all the rest of the European members of the alliance. Yes, Europe should spend more on defence, but the Nato alliance is based on the Washington Treaty. The Washington Treaty! With the US at its head. And that's the way it must remain while Russia is becoming more and more aggressive. Mertz and his fellow European leaders must bite their tongues before they come out in public and make imprudent remarks. Mertz should apologise to Trump and make up.

Asymmetry wins wars - think David and Goliath

In case all the world's leaders have not yet got the message. Asymmetry versus might is what lets the little ones get one over the big ones. David got the idea when he faced Goliath. Paul Newman did it right when he faced the huge rival who wanted to take over his gang in Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid. He stepped forward to shake his hand before the fight to the death began and then kicked him hard between the legs. Fight over. The Taliban defeated the US-led coalition in Afghanistan with AK47s, roadside bombs and rocket-propelled grenades. Ukraine stopped the Russian invasion seizing the whole country with shoulder-launched anti-tank missiles and drones. Now Iran has halted the US in its tracks by seizing control of the Strait of Hormuz, causing chaos in the oil business and world trade. It's the Iranian version of Paul Newman's kick in the balls. Asymmetry works. It's clever, it's cheap and it's massively frustrating for a military power which has every armament in the books at its disposal. So, what to do? The US is not going to win this war unless Trump send hundreds of thousands of troops into Iran to topple the regime and seize all of its enriched uranium. And we know he is not going to do that. Tehran and the clerics know he's not going to do that. So there is no alternative but a deal. And the way things are going it's not going to be a win win deal for the US. Just a deal which Trump can attempt to sell to the American people and to the world as a victory. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER. AMAZON, WATERSTONES, ROWANVALE BOOKS.

Trump and Putin have a war each to chat about

Amidst all the turmoil of the wars in Ukraine and Iran, President Donald Trump and President Vladimir Putin had time - quite a lot of time by the sound of it - to compare warlike notes and offer each other help and advice. It's bizarre. The two leaders get on well but they can't trust each other. The evidence of that is that they never do deals together. Putin has ignored Trump's efforts to end the war in Ukraine, and Trump has rejected Putin's offer of taking possession of Iran's enriched uranium. Trump wants that stuff in HIS hands, or at least in the ownership of the United States, so that it can be destroyed. Nevertheless, the two leaders had a long chat and I guess that is good, even though it didn't get anywhere. Putin and Trump have nowe spoken on the phone about a dozen times. Has the world got safer as a result? Difficult to tell. But the one thing these chats haven't done is bring a peaceful solution to either of the wars currently affecting the whole world. Trump, in his usual optimistic way, tells reporters after the latest talk with Putin that he thinks the war in Ukraine will come to an end soon, just like he has always said the war in Iran is nearly over. But But Ukraine is not going to end the war on Putin's terms, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps is not going to concede to Trump's demands. So, there is no end on sight for either of these wars.

UK ambassador to Washington betrayed by sixth-form visitor

Sir Christian Turner, Britain's ambassador to Washington, is the latest victim of a breach of confidence. He gave up his valuable time to see a bunch of sixth-formers for a session at the embassy and spoke to them privately about some of his views. This took place in February but now, timed to perfection, as King Charles and Camilla carry out a state visit to the United States, one of the sixth-formers or their parents or whoever, has leaked the contens of the ambassador's address to them to the Financial Times. He is now in odour with his bosses at the Foreign Office because his remarks are perceived to be embarrassing to HM Government. Actually, he didn't say anything very controversial. He said America's real special relationship was not with Britain but with Israel. Correct. Then he expressed amazement that no senior figure in the US, unlike in the UK, had been investigated or pilloried for being connected to Jeffry Epstein, the late and unlamented sex trafficker. True. And then he predicted that Sir Keir Starmer probably won't survive as prime minister over the Peter Mandelson scandal. Sir Christian Turner succeeded Mandelson after he was fired as UK ambassador to Washington. He's probably right. But, of course, when this all comes out of the mouth of the ambassador at a time when relations - except with the king - are so poor between Britain and Trumpland, it has been blown up into another example of a top diplomnat being terribly indiscreet. I feel sorry for the guy. It just shows you can't trust anyone these days. Why did someone in the party privileged to chat with the ambassador in a specially-arranged visit to the embassy, feel it was ok to betray the confidence and blurt it all out to a newspaper? Whoever it was, they should be ashamed. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER. AMAZON, WATERSTONES, ROWANVALE BOOKS.

Russian superyacht gets a free pass through the Strait of Hormuz

This is the way it's going to be for ever. Iran, or in reality the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, will pick and choose who to let through the Strait of Hormuz. Us warships? No way. A western-flagged oil tanker? No chance. A Russian superyacht, owned by a billionaire and pal of Vladimir Putin? Be our guest. Before the war against Iran started, more than 130 ships were going through the strait without interference from the IRGC and without any toll system. Now the IRGC is totally in charge, and nothing is getting through except with its permission. Thus, the Russian superyacht. The Iranian foreign minister had talks in Moscow the other day and I assume the superyacht request must have been raised. It's both ironic and ominous that it has become so easy for the IRGC to do what the hell it likes in the strait and the US with all of its naval power seems to be able to do very little about it, other than impose a blockade of the Iranian blockade. If the US naval blockade is maintained and the Iranians can't use any of their ports for importing and exporting, then it should on the face of it drive Iran into penury pretty quickly. But it seems Iran has the ability to absorb terrible punishment and yet just carry on. At some point there will have to be a point of no return for the Iranian economy and the IRGC will come begging for a deal. But they are showing no sign of backing down right now or in the foreseeable future. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER. AMAZON, WATERSTONES, ROWANVALE BOOKS.

Iran tries to take the upper hand

Iran has made its first move to try and push Washington into a deal which will favour the Tehran regime. It won't work but it demonstrates how the generals of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps are thinking. Their idea is that the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened and any talks about Iran's uranium-enrichment programme should be suapended for a future time. It looks tempting, especially for a US president who must be getting uneasy about how the war in Iran is going to affect the Republicans' chances in the mid-term elections in November. If he loses control of the Senate and the House of Representatives, his final two and a half years are going to be obstructed and stymied by a rampant Democratic party. But the Iranians have been clever. When they promise to reopen the Strait of Hormuz they are not suggesting Tehran will give up all control of the waterway. They just say they will agree to reopen it. So that can't be acceptable. As for the nuke programme, this is the biggest bugbear for Trump. He has to be the president who gets this huge issue resolved for good, but the IRGC which runs the nuclear programme are not going to give up this potential capability. So Trump will have to reject the latest move. But could it lead to something more workable? Let us hope so.

Could Trump's hopes for a deal rest with a wounded ayatollah?

With the generals in charge in Tehran there is no hope of a deal with the US. The military, at least in the form of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard, don't understand or seek compromise and just want revenge. So is it the case that if there is to be any kind of settlement everything will rest on whether the new supreme leader, the severely wounded and incapacitated Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, recovers sufficiently to make a huge decision to go for peace? He has a history of alliance with the IRGC, so the chances are slim. The problem at the moment is that he can't speak because of facial injuries and by all accounts is waiting for a prosthetic for his amputated leg. So he is in no position to make such a decision, and even if he did, would the generals listen? There is absolutely no evidence that the latest supreme leader is a reformist or a moderate thinker. But when all the economic facts are put before him about Iran's current dire state, could he begin to think that a continuing war is not in his country's interest. The generals don't seem to care. There is no division in Tehran right now because the generals are united and they don't have to worry about the supreme leader disagreeing with them. But if Trump is going to get a deal, the White House must be praying that the injured leader comes to his senses, in every meaning of the words.

The new proposed talks in Pakistan were pointless

It's hardly suprising that Donald Trump has cancelled the proposed second round of talks in Islamabad. It would have been a pointless exercise. The Iranians aren't interested in a deal which will mean they will lose face, and Trump isn't interested in having talks that lead to nowhere. So why send your two envoys on an 18-hour flight to Islamabad? And anyway, the Iranian foreign minister who had flown to Pakistan for talks with Pakistani officials had already left. So Steve Whitkoff and Jared Kushner, Trump's envoys, were told to stay at home. This is not a breakdown, it's just a non-event. Talks have to be meaningful, otherwise it's a waste of everyone's time. I think Trump has realised that Tehran is not going to play ball. By that I mean, they are not going to give up strangling the Strait of Hormuz and they are never going to surrender their highly-enriched uranium to anyone. The 60 per cent enriched material may be buried under a pile of earth and concrete but it's going to stay there as far as the generals in charge of Tehran are concerned. So "peace" talks are going nowhere. I think Trump will go ahead now and do a further round of bombing once he calls off the ceasefire, and he probably will target Iran's energy infrastructure in the hope that that will persuade the generals that if they don't do a deal of some sort the country is going to be destroyed beyond repair. Trump says he is not in a rush to end the war. I have no doubt that means more bombing is on the way. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER. AMAZON

The Iranian military want to defeat Trump

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is holding out for a defeat of Donald Trump and the mighty US Navy. The generals now running the regime in Tehran are not interested in a peace settlement, they don't care about their own popularity, they don't care about the country's economy going down the tubes, all they want is to prove to the world that they can beat, or at least, obstruct the US president for as long as it takes for them to declare they have forced the world's only military superpower to back down. Right now, they are heading in that direction quite fast, even with the arrival of a third US aircraft carrier strike group in the region. This is a dangerous moment for the White House. Trump has to be able to declare victory, otherwise his personal ratings will fall beyond hope and the Republicans will be annihilated in the November mid-term elections. This presents the IRGC generals with another leverage card to play against Trump. Something totally decisive for the Americans is going to have to be achieved very soon. Otherwise the IRGC will just play for time until Trump becomes so desperate for a deal, he will concede something he has vowed never to concede, such as Iran's uranium-enrichment programme or future Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz. With the current impasse over the Strait of Hormuz, Trump may be forced to go down the route he really wants to avoid - putting thousands of boots on the ground in Iran. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER. AMAZON, WATERSTONES, ROWANVALE BOOKS.

The war in the Strait of Hormuz ignores the ceasefire

There may be a ceasefire in Iran but there's a big war still going on in the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding seas. Donald Trump has now given orders to the US Navy to fire on and destroy any Iranian gunboat or mine-laying vessels posing a threat to the waterway, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (Navy) is targeting cargo ships and anything it can spot worth hitting. It's chaos in other words and all the talk of a negotiated peace looks like finished for good, or at least for the moment, while the two sides try and outdo the other in the battla of the Hormuz Strait. It sounds like the US Navy is expected to do what it has been doing for months in the Caribbean Sea, knocking off Venezuelan drug boats and killing all the crews. I have lost count of the number hit but it has got to be around 30, and probably more. Now we're going to see IRGC speed boats knocked off one by one. It could take a long time, because the revolutionary guards have hundeds of them hidden away along the coastline. But if it happens on a daily basis, then we might as well forget about the ceasefire because Trump will want to get on with the war proper. He is now admitting there is no end in sight. So the world will have to get used to the idea of a Trump for-ever war, something he always vowed never to contemplate. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER PAPERBACK. AMAZON, WATERSTONES, ROWANVALE BOOKS.

Who will be the big losers when Iran war ends?

Basically everyone loses when the war in Iran is over: the US will have expended billions and billions of dollars in used-up missiles, interceptors and fuel costs from the myriad of aircraft and warships used in Operation Epic Fury, and there still won't be a really satisfactory outcome. Iran will lose because they are facing years of recuperation after the onslaught by the US and Israel. The Strait of Hormuz and global shipping will lose because there will still be uncertainty over the safe passage of ships through the choke point. The world economy will lose because of the huge impact of wayward energy prices. Europe will lose, especially the UK, France, and Spain for refusing to help Trump in his war, thus putting at risk future relations with Washington, and above all, the Iranian people will lose because they will have gained nothing from the war except more misery and the knowledge that despite all the bombs, the wretched Islamic revolutionary regime will still be in power, ready to suppress any effort to bring democracy to the nation. All in all, the whole world will be worse off for a long time. Perhaps the only winner will be Israel which has waged two wars at once, Iran and Hezbollah in Lebanon, and has seen the world forget about Gaza which suits Tel Aviv very nicely, or I should say suits Benjamin Netanyahu who is happy to keep control of his chunk of Gaza, create a buffer zone in southern Lebanon and approve more settlements on the West Bank, driving out Palestinian families and farmers. Yes, Netanyahu will be very pleased with the way things have gone. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER. AMAZON, WATERSTONES, ROWANVALE BOOKS.

Back to bombing or will there be peace?

The odds are that by the end of this week, if not sooner, the US will be back to bombing Iran, and this time, targeting infrastructure all over the country. Donald Trump has said he is not interested in extending the two-week ceasefire which runs out tomorrow. So unless the second round of talks in Islamabad produces something slightly more encouraging than the last time, the poor Iranian people will once again spend their days and nights cowering under explosions. This will be a punishment war rather than a war to make life better, if there is such a thing as improving people's lives after a war. Basically, the Iranians are going to suffer for years, even if the bombing doesn't restart because so much has been destroyed already. But Epic Fury Part II is likely to be even more destructive. And to what end? An acceptance by the Tehran regime and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps that they have lost and will from now on be nice, friendly leaders? That isn't going to happen. So will the second round of bombing be pointless? The danger is it will be destruction for destruction's sake. No real objective. Just war, war, war. That would be bad for everyone on this planet. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER. AMAZON, WATERSTONES, ROWANVALE BOOKS.

Trump has to get nuke and Strait of Hormuz issues sorted

If a deal between Iran and the US fails to sort out the nukes situation and control over the Strait of Hormuz, it will be no deal at all, and the war will have been waged for no reason. Yet it seems increasingly unlikely that Iran will ever agree to either of these Big Topics. So, if the second round of talks does go ahead in Islambad tomorrow, they will break down once again, like they did in the first round. Trump's war against Iran has caused immense damage but bombs are not going to solve these questions. Iran will continue to be able to hold the Strait to ransom and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps will find ways of enriching uranium to bomb-grade levels. No bombs will breach the underground bunkers that were built under Pixeaxe Mountain. The nuclear plant is nt yet finished but the bunkers where uranium-enrichment could take place are so far down, not even the Massive Ordnance Penetrator bomb dropped by B-2 stealth bombers could get to them. Only a tactical nuclear bomb could do that, and Trump cannot even contemplate using this sort of weapon! So one wonders what JD Vance, the vice president, and his fellow negotiators could come away with from the new talks that would satisfy anyone, let alone everyone. The war can be won because militarily the US is vastly superior to Iran. But the main objectives of the war - regime-change, an end to uranium-enrichment and a Strait of Hormuz without any form of interference by the IRGC, would seem to be beyond the US president. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER PAPERBACK. AMAZON, ROWANVALE BOOKS, WATERSTONES

A decent deal with Iran will be a miracle

The way things are going, a real deal, ie one that really brings longlasting peace in the Middle East, is about as far away as it has ever been. Donald Trump keeps saying a deal is close but then he is once again threatening to destroy Iran's energy infrastructure and every single bridge. According to the Pentagon, the US military is locked and loaded to do just that if the president gives the order. On the other side, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps which is effectively running the show in Iran at the moment has made it clear that it will control the Strait of Hormuz for ever. It never wants to give up control of the best and biggest trump card it has to keep Trump at bay. Where is the peace deal in all of this? If Trump doesn't get what he wants by Wednesday when the two-week ceasefire comes to an end, I believe he will give the order to the Pentagon to smash everything to bits in Iran. Iran's economy will be totally destroyed. Even now, with the naval blockade preventing Iranian ships from leaving seven ports in the Gulf waterway, Tehran is losing an estimated $340 million a day in exports. That's $2.3 billion a week in lost revenue. How long can the country survive with that sort of punishment? But the IRGC still has its stranglehold of the Strait of Hormuz. Trump may not care that much because the US doesn't need its ships to go through the chokepoint with oil and gas. The US has all the oil and gas it needs, thank you very much. In fact a lot of foreign-flagged oil tankers are now offloading in Texas which suits the US economy. But this sort of brinkmanship cannot go on for ever, and Iran definitely can't afford to have every power plant destroyed by bombing. So someone has to give in. Who is it going to be? I think it will have to be Iran and, if so, the IRGC will need to be overruled by whichever ayatollah is still capable of making decisions. It will be a miracle if Trump gets his way. BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER PAPERBACK. AMAZON, WATERSTONES, ROWANVALE BOOKS.

Was Keir Starmer really kept in the dark over Mandelson's failed security vetting?

It is beyond all credibility that the prime minister was not informed that Lord Mandelson had failed his security vetting prior to his appointment as ambassador to the United States. Keir Starmer says he wasn't told until Tuesday this week. It is both incredible and unbelievable. This is simply not the way Whitehall works. Number Ten is involved in everything to do with national security and intelligence. Either there has been a conspiracy against tfhe prime minister at the heart of the Foreign Office which supposedly kept Starmer in the dark about Mandelson's vetting failure or the leader of the government was so busy with world affairs issues that he failed to read or comprehend the document that lay before him on his desk in Number Ten that revealed the pieve of devastating news: that his chosen individual for the ambassador's job in Washington was considered a national security risk and, thus, shouldn't be appointed. There HAS to be a document spelling this out, and, incidentally, there would have been copies circulated, for example, to the Chief of the Secret Intelligence Service and to the director-general of MI5. and the head of the Foreign Office's Senior Appointments Committee etc etc. This document will be sitting in a lot of filing cabinets throughout Whitehall. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SYP THRILLER PAPERBACK. AMAZON, ROWANVALE BOOKS, WATERSTONES.

US naval blockade is working

It has only been going for three days but so far the US naval blockade of Iranian ports in the Gulf waterway seems to be working pretty well. At least a dozen warships are involved and they are cluttering up the outgoing end of the Strait of Hormuz. Only friendly ships are getting through. If this continues, Iran's economy is going to tank very quickly. It's already stretched thin by sanctions and war. But a successful blockade could finish off the economy. Inflation will go mad, the cost of living will rocket and the poor Iranian people are going to suffer. But the crucial thing, will this massive economic pressure bring down the hateful Islamic regime or will it survive whatever the strain? So far there has been no real hint of a collapse in determination to hold off the US. The country is effectively being held topgether by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and it's very much in their interest that the keep the regime going against all the odds. So this means they will let the Iranian people suffer for as long as it takes to force the Trump administration to agree concessions. Donald Trump won't be looking at it this way. His objective is to destroy the Iranian economy beyond help and force the Tehran clerics and military leaders to give in to all of his demands. The next week or so will show whether Trump or the IRGC are going to win this war. It still could go either way, although the naval blockade could well prove to be the president's best trump card. BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER PAPERBACK. AMAZON, ROWANVALE BOOKS, WATERSTONES.

Will Europe regret the anti-Trump line?

Until now the position adopted by most members of the European Union and European outsiders such as Britain has been slowly becoming more and more anti-Trump. Rachel Reeves, the UK Chancellor now in Washington, has described Trump's war with Iran as a "folly". That sure won't go down well when she meets with US officials. Trump won't see her, that's for sure. Keir Starmer began his relations with Trump by being over-flattering and then switched to distancing himself from everything Trump said and did. President Macron has gone down the same route, and previous supporters such as Georgia Meloni, the Italian prime minister, has attacked Trump for being rude about the Pope. As for the Spanish prime minister, Pedro Sanchez, he is in a league of his own, coming out from the very beginning as anti-Trump once the war with Iran began. The German chancellor Friedrich Mertz has tried to be statesmanlike but has effectively denied Trump the support he was after over Iran. But will all these leaders come to regret their opposition? They have let the US and Israel take on one of the biggest threats facing world security, a nuclear-armed Iran. They may say it's Trump's war of choice but the fact is, Iran poses a threat to everyone and if the military action eventually gets the result Trump wants - a free and fair democratic Iran with no uranium-enrichment, no bomb and no state terrorism - then he will not be thanking Europe. He will be disdainful of Euorpe's lack of foresight. I know it is highly unlikely Trump will get everything he wants but if it turns out that Iran drops being a revolutionary pain in the neck and allows its people to enjoy a better future, the Trump will get all the kudos. New talks being planned for later this week suggest there may be a deal upcoming which just might end the war and bring peace for the Iranian people which they deserve. If that happens, Starmer and co are going to look pretty spiteful and humbled. It may not happen but if it does there are going to be a lot of humiliated faces in European capitals. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER IN PAPERBACK. AMAZON, WATERSTONES, ROWANVALE BOOKS.

Nuclear impasse between the US and Iran

It has come down to Iran's nuclear programme. All the other objectives declared by Donald Trump have either been sort of achieved or are in the process of being achieved. The US Epic Fury attacks, backed by Israel, have destroyed a good proportion of Iran's ballistic missile launchers and missiles, and missile-production plants, air defence systems, most of the navy and air force and command and control infrastructure. But the nukes question is unresolved, although of course the US and Israel together have set back the enriched-uranium programme by at least a year if not more after persistent strikes on the main nuclear sites at Isfahan, Fordow and Natanz. But the 440 kilos of 60-per-cent-enriched uranium is still in Tehran's hands, albeit buried under the targeted plants. Trump is still talking about sending in special operations troops to grab this near-bomb-grade material, but right now he is hoping Tehran will just hand it over. That seems highly unlikely. The talks in Islambad broke down because of this issue and because of US demands that all uranium-enrichment be suspended for 20 years. Iran has come back with "ok, but only for five years". Trump will mever agree to that. But I can see a situation in which a compromise is made and Iran agrees to suspend most of its enrichment for 15 years. If that happens, then it will be exacty the same deal reached by Obama in 2015 through diplomatic rather than military force means. Surely Trump could not go with that! PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER PAPERBACK. AMAZON, WATERSTONES, ROWANVALE BOOKS.

Trump gives the go ahead for a naval blockade of Iranian ports

Donald Trump has now announced he WILL launch a navl blockade of all Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz. Yesterday aAfter noting the suggestion of a blockade by two of his favourite military analysts, General Jack Keane, former vice chief of staff of the US Army, and Rebecca Grant of the Lexington Institute think-tank, Trump posted on Truth Social that it would “begin shortly”. Following the failure of the talks in Islamabad to find a solution to end the war, the notion of a blockade to outsmart the IRGC has already begun to take shape. On Saturday, two American guided-missile destroyers, USS Frank E Petersen and USS Michael Murphy, briefly entered the Strait of Hormuz from the Gulf of Oman to begin “setting conditions for clearing mines,” US Central Command said. The short, uninhibited excursion into the Gulf waterway was not a precursor to the imminent arrival of a blockading convoy of warships. But it underlined the threats that will confront the US Navy if Trump has given the go-ahead for such an operation. It’s not just mines, some of which, it is feared, have been dropped indiscriminately, but the IRGC’s surviving stocks of suicide airborne drones, anti-ship cruise missiles and sea drones packed with explosives, all of which could target oil tankers and other commercial ships as well as US Navy vessels protecting them. “Convoy operations will entail having active optical and electronic surveillance overhead, with an immediate response capability, covering potential mobile launcher firing points along at least 250 miles of Iranian coastline and its hinterland, from Abu Musa in the West to Jask in the East.,” said the Maritime Executive, the shipping industry’s leading information source. Such a challenge would require a heavy concentration of firepower in the Gulf waterway for months on end, a commitment which would have repercussions for Central Command’s main Epic Fury operation against Iran which, if Trump orders a second phase of bombing, could include the seizure of Kharg Island, location of 90 per cent of stored and exportable Iranian oil. Could the US mount a full naval blockade at the same time as relaunching Epic Fury? Both Jack Keane and Rebecca Grant indicated it was feasible and necessary. The current US naval presence consists of around 26 warships and submarines, including two aircraft carriers, USS Abraham Lincoln and USS Gerald R Ford, now returned after repairs in Croatia following a fire on board, and 16 guided-missile destroyers. A third carrier, USS George HW Bush, is on the way from jts home port in Norfolk, Virginia. However, there is a serious shortage of US minesweeping vessels in the region. Four left the Gulf before the war started. Two are currently in Malaysia for repair and modernisation. Will Trump call on his much-maligned Nato partners to provide mine-clearance capabilities and tanker escorts? During his recent trip to the Gulf region, Sir Keir Starmer emphasised the importance of reopening the Strait of Hormuz. But a US naval blockade would likely be defined by the prime minister’s lawyers as an act of war. He has made a point of pledging not to involve the UK in Trump’s war. President Macron of France has already said French warships would not escort vessels through the Strait of Hormuz while the war was on. Tne former top Pentagon official warned that the idea of a naval blockade was premature because of the continuing threat posed by IRGC coastal missiles and drones. “I think we are still several weeks away from degrading the Iranian capabilities sufficiently and bringing in our limited mine counter measure vessels,” said Eric Edelman who was the Pentagon’s defence policy chief for four years in President George W Bush’s administration. “The seizure of Kharg Island could be a part of efforts to clear the Strait since it would provide a chokehold on Iran's export capabilities and give the US a bargaining chip to trade with the Iranians,” he said. About 3,000 paratroopers from the 82nd Airborne Division and two marine expeditionary units, 4,400-strong, as well as hundreds of special operations troops are in the region, ready for a land-grab operation. “A separate matter would be to blockade and presumably seize Iranian ghost fleet tankers coming out of the Strait. That is something I think the US Navy could do but the administration would have to weigh the disruptions that might cause to the international oil market and the fact that much of that oil is headed to China where Trump is supposed to be meeting Xi Jinping in May,” Edelman said. This raises a potential challenging scenario. What if China were to send its own warships to protect oil tankers bound for Chinese ports? Would the US Navy be under orders to let them through the blockade? “The US Navy could have seized the handful of tankers that have left the Strait over the past few weeks but it appears the administration was not willing to do so then, perhaps they are willing now,” Edelman said. Naval blockades have a mixed history. Trump has leapt at the idea for the Gulf because of the perceived success of the operation against Venezuela. An armada of US warships blocked oil tankers from leaving Venezuelan ports, but the naval siege was not leak-proof., and there was no war underway. To guarantee safe passage for ships in the Strait of Hormuz and stop Iranian oil tankers from getting through, the US Navy will have an embittered enemy across the other side of the chokepoint. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER. AMAZON, WATERSTONES, ROWANVALE BOOKS.

A US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on the way

The US military under Donald Trump is certainly getting action, action, action. For a president who doesn't like wars, his second term has been almost nothing else. After the huge success of the Venezuela op in January and the bombing mission against three Iranian nuclear (bombmaking) plants in June last year, Epic Fury, the ultimate Tehran-bashing war, has now taken another turn. After the talks headed by Vice President JD Vance, failed to deliver anything worth mentioning in Islamabad (no surprise there), Trump has turned his attention to launching a naval blockade of the Gulf to prevent any Iranian oil tankers from heading down the waterway. It could involve dozens of ships and take months. Will this calm the oil market or make it go even wilder, upwards? And will Trump's so-called but no longer respected European allies offer to chip in with the odd warship to help protect the non-Iranian countries' tankers from using the Strait? It seems highly unlikely. The UK, for example, doesn't really have any available ships to join a convoy mission and even if the government did decide to deploy something, lawyers would point out that a naval blockade against shipping breaks international law which could make it tricky. Perhaps the naval blockade threat is just bluster to scare Tehran. But it has to be said, the clerics don't seem to have revealed the sort of fear they were supposed to have shown when the bombs started falling and their leaders kept dying. So, a blockade might not go the way Trump wants it to go. The ceasefire has another week and a few days to go. So, let's see what happens in that time. Perhaps Tehran will say, "hey let's have another talk". I expect that's what Trump is hoping because a naval blockade would be a mammoth and very expensive task. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER. AMAZON, WATERSTONES, ROWANVALE BOOKS.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps doesn't want peace with the US

Donald Trump's worst enemies in the Middle East are the leaders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps and they denifitely don't want peace with the man they refer to as the Satan. They don't want any deal unless it favours their longevity, their ability to maintain dominance across the Middle East with terror, threats and arming of proxy militias and no doubt the continuing ability to develop a nuclear bomb, however long it takes. So, with that understanding, JD Vance and his two supporters, Steve Witkoff and the ever-present Trump son-in-law Jared Kushner, have a thankless task ahead of them as the negotations, allegedly for peace, beginning today in Islamabad. Some in the Tehran regime might just want the war to come to an end properly and for good, so that they can remuster, get the people back on their side and, with the lifting of sanctions, get the economy sorted, and plan for a much stronger military-style regime. That would be good for the IRGC as well, but the mere thought of doing business with the US and coming to some sort of compromise arrangement will never satisfy them. They want the US and all its forces out of the Middle East, and they are not going to get that. So the IRGC will remain a hostile presence at the talks, reminding the clerics in Tehran that they are the ones who keep the Islamic revolution going, never mind who the supreme leader is. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER. yOU'LL LOVE IT. AMAZON, WATERSTONES, ROWANVALE BOOKS

The CIA's Ghost Murmur hearbeat-detection system: fact or fiction?

The colonel, one of a two-man crew of an F-15E Strike Eagle shot down by an Iranian shoulder-launched missile, had spent two days trying to conceal his location from enemy search parties, while letting his would-be rescuers know where he was. Apart from intermittent radio contact, all he had was his personal “come-and-get-me” beacon signal. And he dared switch that on only occasionally, for the Iranians would surely be monitoring the conventional means of rescuing him. What ultimately led to salvation, however, was far from conventional. One of the most intriguing secrets of Operation Epic Fury is how, using an “exquisite” piece of classified technology, the CIA succeeded in finding the injured airman in Iran by detecting his heartbeat, the tiniest evidence of human life concealed in a narrow crevice up a 7,000ft mountain ridge. The technology that led to the airman’s rescue by Seal Team Six commandos has now been outed as a CIA “tool” called Ghost Murmur. But is it fact or cleverly-woven fantasy? It was reportedly developed as a highly classified “blue skies” invention by Lockheed Martin’s Skunk Works, the famous laboratory where young, brilliant scientists and engineers devote their time to finding solutions to impossible concepts. Hunting for a heartbeat to confirm the airman’s location, CIA “human assets” inside Iran are said to have relied on Ghost Murmur to select out all other environmental noises across the barren landscape to pinpoint the position of the weapons systems officer, the colonel, call-signed DUDE44 Bravo. John Ratcliffe, the CIA director, hinted at the new technology in a press conference this week. “We deployed both human assets and exquisite technologies that no other intelligence service in the world possess to a daunting challenge, comparable to hunting for a single grain of sand in the middle of a desert,” Ratcliffe said. The US intelligence community is keeping quiet about the revelations. One American intelligence source said: “If we’ve done something in secret, it’s for a good reason.” On the face of it, a futuristic magnetic sensing device — Ghost Murmur in simplistic terms — pinpointed the missing colonel’s heartbeat across a 40-mile stretch of land. Such a system defies the laws of known physics. However, when Trump was contacted about the CIA’s exotic heartbeat detection system by the New York Post, which first broke the story on Ghost Murmur, he appeared to confirm the accuracy of the extraordinary achievement. “It was very important, the CIA was fantastic. Nobody even knows what it is. Nobody ever heard about it before. We have equipment, the likes of which nobody has ever even thought about,” he told the newspaper. The CIA is now more than ever linked up to private industry to benefit from technological breakthroughs. But Ghost Murmur, as described, would appear to push the boundaries of physics beyond even the most exceptional human brain or computer. Intelligence sources would not confirm or deny the existence of Ghost Murmur. But reportedly the “CIA tool” relies on what is called quantum magnetometry, which can find signals of human hearts, aided by artificial intelligence to separate out all the other noises getting in the way. On the night of the rescue operation, there would have been multiple heartbeats because the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) was out in force in the same region searching for the downed airman. “Ghost Murmur finds no support in decades of peer-reviewed physics, even with the help of AI,” says Scientific American, a magazine that specialises in advances in science and technology. “Quantum magnetometers are real, they are ultra-precise in detecting heart arrhythmias by measuring magnetic fields produced by the cardiac muscle. But the heart’s magnetic field is weak,” it reports. “At the surface of the chest, where you’re about ten centimetres away from the source, the magnetic field is just barely detectable,” John Wikswo, a professor of biomedical engineering and physics at Vanderbilt University, said. In other words, the further away, the heartbeat signal becomes progressively weaker, so detection of the missing colonel’s heartbeat from 40 miles away would seem to be a scientific stretch too far. Yet the CIA director’s “single grain of sand in a desert” image would appear to back it up. When the missing colonel finally stood up on the mountainside, which was covered in bushes and trees, as the rescuers got closer, his heartbeat was revealed in technicolour. The hint of movement 40 miles away was enough for Seal Team Six to board AH-6 Little Bird special forces helicopters and head for the spot. The commandos were strapped to outer benches attached to the helicopters for quick disembarkation. It was not the CIA’s only breakthrough achievement. The agency launched an elaborate deception plot to fool the IRGC into thinking the missing colonel had already been rescued and was being taken to safety in a road convoy for exfiltration by sea. No details of the deception mission have been released. But it is believed the CIA used Pegasus spyware developed by an Israeli company to hack into multiple Tehran leadership and IRGC command mobile phones to spread reports that the airman had been found. Pegasus, widely used by US intelligence services and special forces, was developed for eavesdropping on mobile phones and harvesting data without detection. But it can also be used for spreading false information, sending out apparently genuine messages via WhatsApp and Signal under the name of the phone account holder. In the end, the operation to save the missing colonel involved more than 150 fixed-wing aircraft and helicopters and hundreds of special operations troops. However, it was secret technology and CIA spookery that made it all possible. PLESE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER. AMAZON, WATERSTONES, ROWANVALE BOOKS.

Prepare for Epic Fury Part II

It could be the shortest negotiations in history. The United States and Iran, with their respective peace plans, are so far apart it is difficult to imagine how their differences can ever be squared. A two-week ceasefire, which has already been broken, brought relief after five weeks of war and steadied the oil and stock markets. But the agreed ceasefire is looking fragile, as US Vice President JD Vance admitted. If there is any hope of a permanent deal, both Washington and Tehran are going to have make significant concessions. Judging by the 15-point plan presented by President Trump and the ten-point counter proposal delivered by the Iranian regime, neither side has even hinted at compromise. Trump has stated that Iran’s ten points might form the basis of a workable settlement. But only last week he effectively dismissed the Iranian demands, saying the package of peace proposals was “not good enough”. It’s not hard to see why. Tehran wants an acceptance of Iran’s nuclear-enrichment programme, the withdrawal of US combat forces from all bases in the region, full reparation for the billions of dollars of damage caused by the five weeks of US and Israeli bombing, Iranian military control of the Strait of Hormuz, and the lifting of all sanctions. In his 15-pointer, Trump demands an end to all uranium-enrichment, including for civilian purposes, the handover of the 440.9 kilos of uranium enriched to 60 per cent grade (30 per cent away from fissile fuel for a nuclear bomb), the decommissioning of nuclear facilities at Isfahan, Fordow and Natanz, and a halt to Tehran’s arming of proxy militia forces, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthi rebels in Yemen. Key to both peace-settlement packages is the future of the Strait of Hormuz, with Trump wanting free and safe passage for all ships through the choke point, and Tehran insisting on having a supervisory role and, furthermore, introducing tolls for every vessel to the tune of at least $1 million-a-go. The cash flow, potentially up to $100 million a day would be used to cover the costs of rebuilding everything demolished in the war., although half the toll money would go to Oman, sitting on the other side of the channel. If Trump were to accept this toll system, it would undercut one of the principle reasons why he decided to go to war with Iran. Could he even consider allowing the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to hold sway over the Strait? What would shipping companies, let alone insurance brokers covering the trips down the waterway, think of such an arrangement? Pakistan which will mediate the first round of negotiations in Islamabad on Friday, has put forward its own five-point plan, and its wording for the Strait of Hormuz matches Trump’s, not Tehran’s vision for shipping in the Gulf waterway: It calls for the restoration of “normal passage through the Strait as soon as possible”. In other words, no IRGC checkpoints and no tolls. Most of Iran’s ten points cannot be acceptable to a US administration which went to war in order to remove for ever the possibility of the cleric-run regime possessing nuclear weapons and to bring about regime-change through a combination of mass bomb strikes and leadership assassinations. Trump claims he has achieved both these objectives: the 60-per-cent enriched uranium is buried beneath the rubble caused by last June’s bombing and the five-week war’s retargeting of nuclear sites; and the regime is not the same as it was on February 28 when Operation Epic Fury began. However, Iran is effectively beginning the peace negotiations by ignoring the realities of what Trump has achieved in the last five weeks with the bombing campaign. If Iran maintains this position in Islamabad, it is difficult to see how the two sides can even agree a framework for a peace deal, let alone get down to actual negotiations. It took two years for President Obama and a team of brilliant nuclear experts led by US Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz to construct a deal under which Iran agreed to limit its uranium-enrichment to only 3.67 per cent and reduce its stockpile by 98 per cent. The 2015 deal was signed by Iran, the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council, plus Germany and the European Union. Trump, on the other hand, is a broad-brush negotiator, not a detail man. He is not sending nuclear experts to Islamabad. He has given the job to Vance. along with Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner. This means he will expect Iran to cave in to his demands, particularly on its uranium-enrichment programme. If he doesn’t get what he wants, Trump will return to Operation Epic Fury Part Two. Pete Hegseth, the Defence (War) Secretary, has already indicated the president night still authorise sending invasion troops into Iran to dig out the highly-enriched uranium. So, there is little room for optimism that the ceasefire will survive beyond two weeks. PLEASE BUY AND ENJOY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER. AMAZON, WATERSTONES, ROWANVALE BOOKS.

Can the ceasefire last?

Two weeks will be over so quickly. If the talks due to start in Islamabad on Friday to find a peace settlement to end the war in Iran get anywhere it will be a miracle. The Iranian negotiators will arrive in an angry mood after the five weeks of bombing and assassinations of leaders, and are unlikely to want to make any concessions to the main US negotiator, Vice President JD Vance. However, the agreement to hold a two-week ceasefire was a surprise. So maybe the Tehran regime might want a deal more than they are currently saying. But the signs are not good. We don't know how good a negotiator Vance is. He's an unknown. He will have a script written by Trump and won'thave any leeway. So the Islamabad talks could end pretty quickly. The trouble is, the whole world is so relieved about the ceaefire that if it all goes wrong, and the war takes up again, much of the blame could fall on Trump, rather than on the Iranian regime. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER. AMAZON, WATERSTONES, ROWANVALE BOOKS.

Trump says he can obliterate Iran in four hours

The rhetoric has become more and more belligerent and apocalyptic. Now Donald Trump is warning he can destroy every bridge and power station in Iran in four hours if the Tehran regime - what's left of it - doesn't reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Will the surviving leaders in Iran give in, facing such a massive blow to the whole country's existence or will they bluff it out, suspecting the US president will do no such thing. The brinkmanship game being played out from the White House means that no one knows what will happen. Has Trump actually ordered the US military to destroy every bridge and power station? Is it even legal to carry out such an operation? As far as we know, the main leaders in Iran right now are the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the speaker of the Iranian parliament and possibly the head of the Basij police militia force. The new supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei is lying unconscious in a hospital in Qom, according to The Times today. So who is going to make the decision whether to give in to Trump or suffer the consequences by retaining control of the Strait of Hormuz? This is a critical moment for Iran and for the war. If Trump does give the order, will he also authorise a ground war while Iran suffers the biggest blackout in history? We may or may not know the answer this week. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER. AMAZON, WATERSTONES, ROWANVALE BOOKS.

Diplomacy or hell?

There are so many conflicting and contradictory signals being sent at the moment it is difficult to make any sense of it. The war in Iran will end in two weeks, the war will carry on, diplomacy will bring a ceasefire, Iran is to be hit into the Stone Ages. Which one of these various scenarios is going to be the accurate one? Does anyone know? Does Donald Trump know? The Iranian people, the ordinary folk who hate their cleric-run regime, must be in constant panic mode. They want the Americans to succeed but the Islamic Rebolutionary Guard is holding on. Tomorrow is the latest of Trump's deadlines: open the Strait of Hormuz or face hell. By that he means he will authorise the bombing of oil and gas plants and electricity-supply stations and cripple the whole country. But Trump promised the Iranian people that he would come and help them after the security forces killed thousands of protestors when they dared to demonstrate in the streets against the regime. Turning the lights out won't help them. It will just make their lives more miserable. So, hopefully, this is all empty threats. Yet Israel has today bombed an Iranian petro-chemical plant. So it may actually happen from tomorrow night. This will escalte the war beyond any hope of redemption. Tehran will retaliate by sending drones and missiles against every energy facility in the Gulf states, and there will be fiery bedlam everywhere. By the end of this week we will have a diplomatic plan under genuine discussion or a cataclysmic energy war. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER. AMAZON, WATERSTONES, ROWANVALE BOOKS

An incredible military operation to save pilot

When the US military pulls out all the stops there is no country on the planet which can match them. The rescue of the second crew member of the downed F-15E Strike Eagle over southern Iran was an amazing achievement, carried out with unbelievable expertise, tehnology and bravery. By the sound of it, the Iranian military were pretty close to finding the American first, but US special operations troops, in their hundreds, outsmarted them and provided a wall of firepower to keep them at bay while tbe combat search and rescue helicopters, Jolly Greens and Combat Kings, focused on the rescue. Overhead there were dozens of bombers, ground-attack A-10 gunships, surveillance planes, air-refuelling tankers, Apache helicopters and electronic-jamming aircraft to protect the whole mission. If it had gone wrong it would have been a calamity, and Donald Trump would have faced an outcry. But it went spectacularly right, no Americans were injured, apart from the rescued crew member, hurt when he ejected from his fighter jet, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps troops, leading the hunt for the crew member, a weapons specialist. were blasted to hell. Such a huge relief and a massive boost for the US military who have been given a near-impossible taks, ie, to effect regime-change in Tehran, dig out the 400 kilos of enriched uranium and destroy Iran's ballistic missiles. The saving of one life (well, two, because the F-15 pilot was rescued earlier) will help to give Trump the leeway he needs to try and finish the job. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER. AMAZON, ROWANAVLE BOOKS, WATERSTONES.

The missing US pilot HAS to be rescued to stop a nightmare scenario

Suddenly the whole US military apparatus is focusing on one thing, the rescue of the missing crew member of the downed F-15E Strike Eagle over Iran. The legendary Combat Search and Rescue Teams who are trained for this eventuality, will find him if anyone can. But they have to do it before some wandering Iranian comes across the pilot and contacts the security authorities. The worst possible sceanrio is for the crew member to be detained, ill-treated and put on state television so that the Tehran regime can gloat. His survival chances would be minimal. We have had this terrible scenario before. Saddah Mussein held people, including children, hostage and flaunted their suffering on television. And of course, Gary Powers, the U2 spy pilot shot down in 1960 by the Soviet Union on a secret CIA surveillance mission, was paraded before the cameras when he was picked up and brutally treated. Why the missing American crew member has not been found is a mystery. Fighter aircraft crews always have personal radio beacons to pinpoint their position if shot down, and undergo intense training for what action to take if parachuting unharmed into hostile territory. The missing American will be hiding somewhere and he may be worried that his personal radio beacon could be spotted by the enemy and might have switched it off. If so, that will make the task of his rescuers much more difficult. But he HAS to be found. Iran would be granted huge leverage over Donald Trump if the airman is captured. With the Strait of Hormuz card already in their pocket, a captured airman would raise hopes among the regime that Trump can be defeated. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER. AMAZON, ROWANVALE BOOKS, WATERSTONES

What happens when the war in Iran is over?

Despite all the predictions that the war in Iran would only run for four to six weeks, or will be over in another two or three weeks, or has nearly been completed, etc etc, there is actually no sign yet of a slowing down of the strikes by the US and Israel, and no sign of Iran stopping retaliating. It could go on for weeks or months with mnore and more destruction throughout Iran and in the Middle East countries targeted by Tehran. However, when it does all come to a halt, what if anything will Donald Trump do to repair the massively damaged relationship between Washington and the whole of Europe? Or will he wait for Europe to make the first move? Right now, Trump is angry about Europe's attitude and wants to leave Nato, and Europe is angry at the way Trump has been treating all European governments, berating them for daring to go against him and preventing the US military from using European bases for offensive strikes on Iran. Actually, Britain is effectively allowing its RAF bases to be used as a transit point for bombers and ground-attack aircraft flying in from the US, and Keir Starmer's condition that they only be used for "defensive" operations is looking pretty woolly. Nevertheless, Europe has not welcomed Trump's war and relations now are so bad that whenever he speaks about his European partners he has nothing but insults for them. When the war is over, this will all have to stop. For everyone's sake. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER. AMAZON, ROWANVALE BOOKS, WATERSTOMES.

The toll of damage at US bases in the Middle East

Pentagon boss Pete Hegseth admitted at the start of the war that some Iranian missiles and drones would get through the layers of air defences spread out in the Middle East. What he did not acknowledge was that the US has appeared unprepared for the mass of long-range Shahed-136 killer drones launched by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) against US bases in the region. Now into the fifth week of the war, the IRGC has succeeded in causing extensive damage to many of the 13 US bases, despite the pre-war deployment of some of America’s most expensive defensive systems capable of intercepting every type of ballistic and cruise missile. The cost of the destruction after the first month is now estimated to be nearly $1.5 billion and the injury toll is more than 300 US service personnel. In addition, 13 have been killed, although six died when two RC-135 air reuelling takers collided in midair over western Iraq. Much of the destruction has been caused by long-range drones; and even though the rate of drone attacks has dropped, the threat they still pose has become increasingly clear. The US is struggling to stop them coming. The IRGC’s principal UAV (unmanned aerial vehicle) is the 11.5ft long kamikaze Shahed-136, each carrying a 50-kilo explosive warhead. They fly low and fast and have too often beaten the sophisticated US anti-missile systems on land, on warships and on fighter aircraft. To add to the American military’s challenges, Russia has been supplying the IRGC with US base location coordinates, and more specifically the daily position of aircraft out in the open, as opposed to in hardened shelters; and is now providing its own variant of the Shahed, the Geran-1 and Geran-2 which are armed with a 90-kilo warhead. Iran launched nearly 4,000 of these one-way attack drones in the first few weeks of the war, and about a dozen US bases in the Middle East have been hit. With Russia’s help the IRGC still seems to have sufficient stocks of these “suicide” bombs. “The failure of the department of defence [Pentagon] adequately to incorporate the lessons of the war in Ukraine, as opposed to just studying them, particularly counter-drone warfare, is a bipartisan failing across two administrations [Presidents Biden and Trump],” a former top US defence official told The Times. The audit of destruction at US bases or sites where America has a military presence is sombre reading for the Pentagon. *Prince Sultan airbase, 60 miles south of Riyadh in Saudi Arabia: On March 27, the base was targeted by 29 drones and six ballistic missiles. An E-3 Sentry AWACS aircraft suffered a direct hit and was demolished. Several KC-135 tankers were also damaged. Fifteen American soldiers were wounded, five seriously. The AWACS was one of six in the region, each costing about $300 million. March 13, five KC-135 tankers were damaged by a drone attack. March 1, a US serviceman was killed by a drone strike. *Al Udeid airbase in Qatar, forward headquarters for US Central Command, with 100 aircraft and 10,000 troops: A long-range radar located at Umm Dahal, in the vicinity of Al-Udeid, was hit and damaged on March 7. The radar cost more than $1 billion. *Bahrain, home to the US Navy’s Fifth Fleet., headquartered at Manama: February 28, the base was hit by drones, causing damage to radar and communications equipment, estimated in a report by the Pentagon to Congress to be around $200 million. *Camp Arifjan in Kuwait, a US Army base and logistics hub: On March 1, six US soldiers were killed at a logistics operations centre in Shuaiba port, ten miles from the US Army base, after it was hit by a drone. *Ali Al Salem airbase and Camp Buehring base in Kuwait. Both were hit by drones, on March 1 and March 5 respectively, causing significant damage to communications systems and buildings. *Al-Dhafra airbase in United Arab Emirates: The base, hosting F-22 Raptor stealth aircraft and MQ-9 Reaper surveillance drones, has been targeted on multiple occasions. Nine Reapers are reported to have been destroyed in separate incidents, although most of them while flying over Iran from the UAE base. A Reaper costs about $30 million. *Muwaffaq al Salti airbase in northwest Jordan: The base was targeted on March 4, causing extensive damage to an air defence radar system. A radar of this type costs around $500 million. *Erbil airbase in northern Iraq: The base where US and British special forces are operating, has been regularly hit by drones. Most have been shot down, although some damage has been caused. *Al-Assad airbase in western Iraq: Targeted by drones and missiles, the damage has not been revealed. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER. AMAZON, ROWANVALE BOOKS, WATERSTONES.

Trump wants out of Nato!

Donald Trump has many times warned that he might take the United States out of Nato because, apart from the US, the rest of the alliance had failed to spend enough on defence. It kind of worked because everyone rushed to promise to spend more. Most of the other members of the alliance have committed to more and more spending over the next few years. We will see if that happens. But now the US president is so mightily angry with every member of the alliance for failing to join him in the war against Iran that he is seriously considering exiting Nato to punish all the allies for being ungrateful, cowardly, weak and a whole lot of other things. Europe, as far as he is concerned, qan go hang and can look after themselves, no longer with the US umbrella over them. He might just mean it and might just do it this time. His argument, I guess, which is not actually an unfair one, is that Iran with nukes and long-range ballistic missiles posed a real threat, not just to the Middle East, but eventually to the whole world. So, in other words, it wasn't just a problem for the US and Israel to confront but was a threat tp the whole alliance. But that argument has been given the cold shoulder by the alliance. They all said it wasn't their war. Theoretically, they are right because this was a war chosen by Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu, it wasn't a Nato war as such. The trouble is, because of the squeamishness of all of America's Nato allies, we are now in a position where Trump will for ever regard Nato as as a weak organisation that can't be trusted to help out when called upon. So, why, he will be thinking, bother with the organisation? It could happen, the US cold-shopuldering Nato. That would be a serious moment for the rest of the alliance. Very very serious, which is why a lot of phone calls need to be made to persuade Trump to drop the idea. Otherwise it will be a triumph for Putin! PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER. AMAZON, ROWANVALE BOOKS, WATERSTONES.

Should King Charles go to Washington?

It has been confirmed that King Charles and Queen Camilla WILL be going to Washington for a State visit next month. Confirmation came on the day when Donald Trump had another go at the UK government, tell Starmer and co that if they needed oil from the Gulf region they should go and get it themselves. It's a bizarre juxtaposition but not necessarily unusual when it comes to relations between Washington and London right now. There is little love lost between Trump and Starmer because of the prime minister's reluctance to go the whole hog and give the US military total access to whichever base they need in Britain to fly off and bomb Iran to obliteration. However, in the great scheme of things, it still seems right for the king and queen to continue with the long-planned return State Visit. Trump loves the British monarchy and it won't do any harm to the king's humble servants, which include Starmer, to feel a bit of warmth from the White House for a change. So, Charles and Camilla, go and do your diplomatic best to repair relations and persuade Trump to be less antagonistic towards the country with which the US shares a very special, historic relationship. Long may it last in these turbulent times. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER. AMAZON, ROWANVALE BOOKS, WATERSTONES.

Have the negotiations with Iran got anywhere?

The latest Iranian interlocutor vis a vis talks with third parties to bring the war against Iran to an end appears to be the Speaker of the Parliamemt, Mohamad Bagher Ghalibaf. That doesn't mean he won't be bumped off by the Israeli air force or Mossad but right now he's the main man. But has he yet shown any interest in making a deal? In public it's all belligerent rhetoric but as the days go by and more bombs fall, destroying military infrastructure, surely someone in the regime must be saying "enough". The real problem is that there is no one really in charge in Iran. The Speaker of the Parliament has always been a powerful position but he is not The Decision Maker. The Supreme Leader is the key figure, but Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei is an elusive individual who may or may not be injured. Donald Trump doesn't help by one minute being terrifically optimistic about a deal any day and then warning he's going to hit Iran bigger than ever or destroy their power plants to make them all live in the dark. If this is a negotiating tactic it doesn't seem to be impressing the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps which is carrying on firing missiles like it has an inexaustible supply and the IRGC leaders want revenge, not peace. Is this going to go on for ever or there something in the wind which will suddenly bring back the smile to everyone's face?