Chancellor Mertz should apologise

Why on earth Chancellor Mertz thought it was wise, necessary or justified to declare that the US has been humiliated by Iran is a matter for him. But his statement has brought relations between Washington and Berlin to a new low. And now, in retaliation, Donald Trump is to pull 5,000 American troops out of Germany to punish Mertz for his indiscretion. It strikes me that European leaders are suddenly feeling more confident about criticising Trump, never mind the consequences. But this is bad diplomacy, bad leadership and very bad for the Nato alliance which, of course, is still led by the US. What does Mertz want? Does he want to split the alliance? Does he think the alliance should become a Germany-led organisation and kick out the Americans? If so, no one is going to thank him, least of all the rest of the European members of the alliance. Yes, Europe should spend more on defence, but the Nato alliance is based on the Washington Treaty. The Washington Treaty! With the US at its head. And that's the way it must remain while Russia is becoming more and more aggressive. Mertz and his fellow European leaders must bite their tongues before they come out in public and make imprudent remarks. Mertz should apologise to Trump and make up.

Asymmetry wins wars - think David and Goliath

In case all the world's leaders have not yet got the message. Asymmetry versus might is what lets the little ones get one over the big ones. David got the idea when he faced Goliath. Paul Newman did it right when he faced the huge rival who wanted to take over his gang in Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid. He stepped forward to shake his hand before the fight to the death began and then kicked him hard between the legs. Fight over. The Taliban defeated the US-led coalition in Afghanistan with AK47s, roadside bombs and rocket-propelled grenades. Ukraine stopped the Russian invasion seizing the whole country with shoulder-launched anti-tank missiles and drones. Now Iran has halted the US in its tracks by seizing control of the Strait of Hormuz, causing chaos in the oil business and world trade. It's the Iranian version of Paul Newman's kick in the balls. Asymmetry works. It's clever, it's cheap and it's massively frustrating for a military power which has every armament in the books at its disposal. So, what to do? The US is not going to win this war unless Trump send hundreds of thousands of troops into Iran to topple the regime and seize all of its enriched uranium. And we know he is not going to do that. Tehran and the clerics know he's not going to do that. So there is no alternative but a deal. And the way things are going it's not going to be a win win deal for the US. Just a deal which Trump can attempt to sell to the American people and to the world as a victory. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER. AMAZON, WATERSTONES, ROWANVALE BOOKS.

Trump and Putin have a war each to chat about

Amidst all the turmoil of the wars in Ukraine and Iran, President Donald Trump and President Vladimir Putin had time - quite a lot of time by the sound of it - to compare warlike notes and offer each other help and advice. It's bizarre. The two leaders get on well but they can't trust each other. The evidence of that is that they never do deals together. Putin has ignored Trump's efforts to end the war in Ukraine, and Trump has rejected Putin's offer of taking possession of Iran's enriched uranium. Trump wants that stuff in HIS hands, or at least in the ownership of the United States, so that it can be destroyed. Nevertheless, the two leaders had a long chat and I guess that is good, even though it didn't get anywhere. Putin and Trump have nowe spoken on the phone about a dozen times. Has the world got safer as a result? Difficult to tell. But the one thing these chats haven't done is bring a peaceful solution to either of the wars currently affecting the whole world. Trump, in his usual optimistic way, tells reporters after the latest talk with Putin that he thinks the war in Ukraine will come to an end soon, just like he has always said the war in Iran is nearly over. But But Ukraine is not going to end the war on Putin's terms, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps is not going to concede to Trump's demands. So, there is no end on sight for either of these wars.

UK ambassador to Washington betrayed by sixth-form visitor

Sir Christian Turner, Britain's ambassador to Washington, is the latest victim of a breach of confidence. He gave up his valuable time to see a bunch of sixth-formers for a session at the embassy and spoke to them privately about some of his views. This took place in February but now, timed to perfection, as King Charles and Camilla carry out a state visit to the United States, one of the sixth-formers or their parents or whoever, has leaked the contens of the ambassador's address to them to the Financial Times. He is now in odour with his bosses at the Foreign Office because his remarks are perceived to be embarrassing to HM Government. Actually, he didn't say anything very controversial. He said America's real special relationship was not with Britain but with Israel. Correct. Then he expressed amazement that no senior figure in the US, unlike in the UK, had been investigated or pilloried for being connected to Jeffry Epstein, the late and unlamented sex trafficker. True. And then he predicted that Sir Keir Starmer probably won't survive as prime minister over the Peter Mandelson scandal. Sir Christian Turner succeeded Mandelson after he was fired as UK ambassador to Washington. He's probably right. But, of course, when this all comes out of the mouth of the ambassador at a time when relations - except with the king - are so poor between Britain and Trumpland, it has been blown up into another example of a top diplomnat being terribly indiscreet. I feel sorry for the guy. It just shows you can't trust anyone these days. Why did someone in the party privileged to chat with the ambassador in a specially-arranged visit to the embassy, feel it was ok to betray the confidence and blurt it all out to a newspaper? Whoever it was, they should be ashamed. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER. AMAZON, WATERSTONES, ROWANVALE BOOKS.

Russian superyacht gets a free pass through the Strait of Hormuz

This is the way it's going to be for ever. Iran, or in reality the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, will pick and choose who to let through the Strait of Hormuz. Us warships? No way. A western-flagged oil tanker? No chance. A Russian superyacht, owned by a billionaire and pal of Vladimir Putin? Be our guest. Before the war against Iran started, more than 130 ships were going through the strait without interference from the IRGC and without any toll system. Now the IRGC is totally in charge, and nothing is getting through except with its permission. Thus, the Russian superyacht. The Iranian foreign minister had talks in Moscow the other day and I assume the superyacht request must have been raised. It's both ironic and ominous that it has become so easy for the IRGC to do what the hell it likes in the strait and the US with all of its naval power seems to be able to do very little about it, other than impose a blockade of the Iranian blockade. If the US naval blockade is maintained and the Iranians can't use any of their ports for importing and exporting, then it should on the face of it drive Iran into penury pretty quickly. But it seems Iran has the ability to absorb terrible punishment and yet just carry on. At some point there will have to be a point of no return for the Iranian economy and the IRGC will come begging for a deal. But they are showing no sign of backing down right now or in the foreseeable future. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER. AMAZON, WATERSTONES, ROWANVALE BOOKS.

Iran tries to take the upper hand

Iran has made its first move to try and push Washington into a deal which will favour the Tehran regime. It won't work but it demonstrates how the generals of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps are thinking. Their idea is that the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened and any talks about Iran's uranium-enrichment programme should be suapended for a future time. It looks tempting, especially for a US president who must be getting uneasy about how the war in Iran is going to affect the Republicans' chances in the mid-term elections in November. If he loses control of the Senate and the House of Representatives, his final two and a half years are going to be obstructed and stymied by a rampant Democratic party. But the Iranians have been clever. When they promise to reopen the Strait of Hormuz they are not suggesting Tehran will give up all control of the waterway. They just say they will agree to reopen it. So that can't be acceptable. As for the nuke programme, this is the biggest bugbear for Trump. He has to be the president who gets this huge issue resolved for good, but the IRGC which runs the nuclear programme are not going to give up this potential capability. So Trump will have to reject the latest move. But could it lead to something more workable? Let us hope so.

Could Trump's hopes for a deal rest with a wounded ayatollah?

With the generals in charge in Tehran there is no hope of a deal with the US. The military, at least in the form of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard, don't understand or seek compromise and just want revenge. So is it the case that if there is to be any kind of settlement everything will rest on whether the new supreme leader, the severely wounded and incapacitated Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, recovers sufficiently to make a huge decision to go for peace? He has a history of alliance with the IRGC, so the chances are slim. The problem at the moment is that he can't speak because of facial injuries and by all accounts is waiting for a prosthetic for his amputated leg. So he is in no position to make such a decision, and even if he did, would the generals listen? There is absolutely no evidence that the latest supreme leader is a reformist or a moderate thinker. But when all the economic facts are put before him about Iran's current dire state, could he begin to think that a continuing war is not in his country's interest. The generals don't seem to care. There is no division in Tehran right now because the generals are united and they don't have to worry about the supreme leader disagreeing with them. But if Trump is going to get a deal, the White House must be praying that the injured leader comes to his senses, in every meaning of the words.

The new proposed talks in Pakistan were pointless

It's hardly suprising that Donald Trump has cancelled the proposed second round of talks in Islamabad. It would have been a pointless exercise. The Iranians aren't interested in a deal which will mean they will lose face, and Trump isn't interested in having talks that lead to nowhere. So why send your two envoys on an 18-hour flight to Islamabad? And anyway, the Iranian foreign minister who had flown to Pakistan for talks with Pakistani officials had already left. So Steve Whitkoff and Jared Kushner, Trump's envoys, were told to stay at home. This is not a breakdown, it's just a non-event. Talks have to be meaningful, otherwise it's a waste of everyone's time. I think Trump has realised that Tehran is not going to play ball. By that I mean, they are not going to give up strangling the Strait of Hormuz and they are never going to surrender their highly-enriched uranium to anyone. The 60 per cent enriched material may be buried under a pile of earth and concrete but it's going to stay there as far as the generals in charge of Tehran are concerned. So "peace" talks are going nowhere. I think Trump will go ahead now and do a further round of bombing once he calls off the ceasefire, and he probably will target Iran's energy infrastructure in the hope that that will persuade the generals that if they don't do a deal of some sort the country is going to be destroyed beyond repair. Trump says he is not in a rush to end the war. I have no doubt that means more bombing is on the way. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER. AMAZON

The Iranian military want to defeat Trump

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is holding out for a defeat of Donald Trump and the mighty US Navy. The generals now running the regime in Tehran are not interested in a peace settlement, they don't care about their own popularity, they don't care about the country's economy going down the tubes, all they want is to prove to the world that they can beat, or at least, obstruct the US president for as long as it takes for them to declare they have forced the world's only military superpower to back down. Right now, they are heading in that direction quite fast, even with the arrival of a third US aircraft carrier strike group in the region. This is a dangerous moment for the White House. Trump has to be able to declare victory, otherwise his personal ratings will fall beyond hope and the Republicans will be annihilated in the November mid-term elections. This presents the IRGC generals with another leverage card to play against Trump. Something totally decisive for the Americans is going to have to be achieved very soon. Otherwise the IRGC will just play for time until Trump becomes so desperate for a deal, he will concede something he has vowed never to concede, such as Iran's uranium-enrichment programme or future Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz. With the current impasse over the Strait of Hormuz, Trump may be forced to go down the route he really wants to avoid - putting thousands of boots on the ground in Iran. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER. AMAZON, WATERSTONES, ROWANVALE BOOKS.

The war in the Strait of Hormuz ignores the ceasefire

There may be a ceasefire in Iran but there's a big war still going on in the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding seas. Donald Trump has now given orders to the US Navy to fire on and destroy any Iranian gunboat or mine-laying vessels posing a threat to the waterway, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (Navy) is targeting cargo ships and anything it can spot worth hitting. It's chaos in other words and all the talk of a negotiated peace looks like finished for good, or at least for the moment, while the two sides try and outdo the other in the battla of the Hormuz Strait. It sounds like the US Navy is expected to do what it has been doing for months in the Caribbean Sea, knocking off Venezuelan drug boats and killing all the crews. I have lost count of the number hit but it has got to be around 30, and probably more. Now we're going to see IRGC speed boats knocked off one by one. It could take a long time, because the revolutionary guards have hundeds of them hidden away along the coastline. But if it happens on a daily basis, then we might as well forget about the ceasefire because Trump will want to get on with the war proper. He is now admitting there is no end in sight. So the world will have to get used to the idea of a Trump for-ever war, something he always vowed never to contemplate. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER PAPERBACK. AMAZON, WATERSTONES, ROWANVALE BOOKS.

Who will be the big losers when Iran war ends?

Basically everyone loses when the war in Iran is over: the US will have expended billions and billions of dollars in used-up missiles, interceptors and fuel costs from the myriad of aircraft and warships used in Operation Epic Fury, and there still won't be a really satisfactory outcome. Iran will lose because they are facing years of recuperation after the onslaught by the US and Israel. The Strait of Hormuz and global shipping will lose because there will still be uncertainty over the safe passage of ships through the choke point. The world economy will lose because of the huge impact of wayward energy prices. Europe will lose, especially the UK, France, and Spain for refusing to help Trump in his war, thus putting at risk future relations with Washington, and above all, the Iranian people will lose because they will have gained nothing from the war except more misery and the knowledge that despite all the bombs, the wretched Islamic revolutionary regime will still be in power, ready to suppress any effort to bring democracy to the nation. All in all, the whole world will be worse off for a long time. Perhaps the only winner will be Israel which has waged two wars at once, Iran and Hezbollah in Lebanon, and has seen the world forget about Gaza which suits Tel Aviv very nicely, or I should say suits Benjamin Netanyahu who is happy to keep control of his chunk of Gaza, create a buffer zone in southern Lebanon and approve more settlements on the West Bank, driving out Palestinian families and farmers. Yes, Netanyahu will be very pleased with the way things have gone. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER. AMAZON, WATERSTONES, ROWANVALE BOOKS.

Back to bombing or will there be peace?

The odds are that by the end of this week, if not sooner, the US will be back to bombing Iran, and this time, targeting infrastructure all over the country. Donald Trump has said he is not interested in extending the two-week ceasefire which runs out tomorrow. So unless the second round of talks in Islamabad produces something slightly more encouraging than the last time, the poor Iranian people will once again spend their days and nights cowering under explosions. This will be a punishment war rather than a war to make life better, if there is such a thing as improving people's lives after a war. Basically, the Iranians are going to suffer for years, even if the bombing doesn't restart because so much has been destroyed already. But Epic Fury Part II is likely to be even more destructive. And to what end? An acceptance by the Tehran regime and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps that they have lost and will from now on be nice, friendly leaders? That isn't going to happen. So will the second round of bombing be pointless? The danger is it will be destruction for destruction's sake. No real objective. Just war, war, war. That would be bad for everyone on this planet. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER. AMAZON, WATERSTONES, ROWANVALE BOOKS.

Trump has to get nuke and Strait of Hormuz issues sorted

If a deal between Iran and the US fails to sort out the nukes situation and control over the Strait of Hormuz, it will be no deal at all, and the war will have been waged for no reason. Yet it seems increasingly unlikely that Iran will ever agree to either of these Big Topics. So, if the second round of talks does go ahead in Islambad tomorrow, they will break down once again, like they did in the first round. Trump's war against Iran has caused immense damage but bombs are not going to solve these questions. Iran will continue to be able to hold the Strait to ransom and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps will find ways of enriching uranium to bomb-grade levels. No bombs will breach the underground bunkers that were built under Pixeaxe Mountain. The nuclear plant is nt yet finished but the bunkers where uranium-enrichment could take place are so far down, not even the Massive Ordnance Penetrator bomb dropped by B-2 stealth bombers could get to them. Only a tactical nuclear bomb could do that, and Trump cannot even contemplate using this sort of weapon! So one wonders what JD Vance, the vice president, and his fellow negotiators could come away with from the new talks that would satisfy anyone, let alone everyone. The war can be won because militarily the US is vastly superior to Iran. But the main objectives of the war - regime-change, an end to uranium-enrichment and a Strait of Hormuz without any form of interference by the IRGC, would seem to be beyond the US president. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER PAPERBACK. AMAZON, ROWANVALE BOOKS, WATERSTONES

A decent deal with Iran will be a miracle

The way things are going, a real deal, ie one that really brings longlasting peace in the Middle East, is about as far away as it has ever been. Donald Trump keeps saying a deal is close but then he is once again threatening to destroy Iran's energy infrastructure and every single bridge. According to the Pentagon, the US military is locked and loaded to do just that if the president gives the order. On the other side, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps which is effectively running the show in Iran at the moment has made it clear that it will control the Strait of Hormuz for ever. It never wants to give up control of the best and biggest trump card it has to keep Trump at bay. Where is the peace deal in all of this? If Trump doesn't get what he wants by Wednesday when the two-week ceasefire comes to an end, I believe he will give the order to the Pentagon to smash everything to bits in Iran. Iran's economy will be totally destroyed. Even now, with the naval blockade preventing Iranian ships from leaving seven ports in the Gulf waterway, Tehran is losing an estimated $340 million a day in exports. That's $2.3 billion a week in lost revenue. How long can the country survive with that sort of punishment? But the IRGC still has its stranglehold of the Strait of Hormuz. Trump may not care that much because the US doesn't need its ships to go through the chokepoint with oil and gas. The US has all the oil and gas it needs, thank you very much. In fact a lot of foreign-flagged oil tankers are now offloading in Texas which suits the US economy. But this sort of brinkmanship cannot go on for ever, and Iran definitely can't afford to have every power plant destroyed by bombing. So someone has to give in. Who is it going to be? I think it will have to be Iran and, if so, the IRGC will need to be overruled by whichever ayatollah is still capable of making decisions. It will be a miracle if Trump gets his way. BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER PAPERBACK. AMAZON, WATERSTONES, ROWANVALE BOOKS.

Was Keir Starmer really kept in the dark over Mandelson's failed security vetting?

It is beyond all credibility that the prime minister was not informed that Lord Mandelson had failed his security vetting prior to his appointment as ambassador to the United States. Keir Starmer says he wasn't told until Tuesday this week. It is both incredible and unbelievable. This is simply not the way Whitehall works. Number Ten is involved in everything to do with national security and intelligence. Either there has been a conspiracy against tfhe prime minister at the heart of the Foreign Office which supposedly kept Starmer in the dark about Mandelson's vetting failure or the leader of the government was so busy with world affairs issues that he failed to read or comprehend the document that lay before him on his desk in Number Ten that revealed the pieve of devastating news: that his chosen individual for the ambassador's job in Washington was considered a national security risk and, thus, shouldn't be appointed. There HAS to be a document spelling this out, and, incidentally, there would have been copies circulated, for example, to the Chief of the Secret Intelligence Service and to the director-general of MI5. and the head of the Foreign Office's Senior Appointments Committee etc etc. This document will be sitting in a lot of filing cabinets throughout Whitehall. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SYP THRILLER PAPERBACK. AMAZON, ROWANVALE BOOKS, WATERSTONES.

US naval blockade is working

It has only been going for three days but so far the US naval blockade of Iranian ports in the Gulf waterway seems to be working pretty well. At least a dozen warships are involved and they are cluttering up the outgoing end of the Strait of Hormuz. Only friendly ships are getting through. If this continues, Iran's economy is going to tank very quickly. It's already stretched thin by sanctions and war. But a successful blockade could finish off the economy. Inflation will go mad, the cost of living will rocket and the poor Iranian people are going to suffer. But the crucial thing, will this massive economic pressure bring down the hateful Islamic regime or will it survive whatever the strain? So far there has been no real hint of a collapse in determination to hold off the US. The country is effectively being held topgether by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and it's very much in their interest that the keep the regime going against all the odds. So this means they will let the Iranian people suffer for as long as it takes to force the Trump administration to agree concessions. Donald Trump won't be looking at it this way. His objective is to destroy the Iranian economy beyond help and force the Tehran clerics and military leaders to give in to all of his demands. The next week or so will show whether Trump or the IRGC are going to win this war. It still could go either way, although the naval blockade could well prove to be the president's best trump card. BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER PAPERBACK. AMAZON, ROWANVALE BOOKS, WATERSTONES.

Will Europe regret the anti-Trump line?

Until now the position adopted by most members of the European Union and European outsiders such as Britain has been slowly becoming more and more anti-Trump. Rachel Reeves, the UK Chancellor now in Washington, has described Trump's war with Iran as a "folly". That sure won't go down well when she meets with US officials. Trump won't see her, that's for sure. Keir Starmer began his relations with Trump by being over-flattering and then switched to distancing himself from everything Trump said and did. President Macron has gone down the same route, and previous supporters such as Georgia Meloni, the Italian prime minister, has attacked Trump for being rude about the Pope. As for the Spanish prime minister, Pedro Sanchez, he is in a league of his own, coming out from the very beginning as anti-Trump once the war with Iran began. The German chancellor Friedrich Mertz has tried to be statesmanlike but has effectively denied Trump the support he was after over Iran. But will all these leaders come to regret their opposition? They have let the US and Israel take on one of the biggest threats facing world security, a nuclear-armed Iran. They may say it's Trump's war of choice but the fact is, Iran poses a threat to everyone and if the military action eventually gets the result Trump wants - a free and fair democratic Iran with no uranium-enrichment, no bomb and no state terrorism - then he will not be thanking Europe. He will be disdainful of Euorpe's lack of foresight. I know it is highly unlikely Trump will get everything he wants but if it turns out that Iran drops being a revolutionary pain in the neck and allows its people to enjoy a better future, the Trump will get all the kudos. New talks being planned for later this week suggest there may be a deal upcoming which just might end the war and bring peace for the Iranian people which they deserve. If that happens, Starmer and co are going to look pretty spiteful and humbled. It may not happen but if it does there are going to be a lot of humiliated faces in European capitals. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER IN PAPERBACK. AMAZON, WATERSTONES, ROWANVALE BOOKS.

Nuclear impasse between the US and Iran

It has come down to Iran's nuclear programme. All the other objectives declared by Donald Trump have either been sort of achieved or are in the process of being achieved. The US Epic Fury attacks, backed by Israel, have destroyed a good proportion of Iran's ballistic missile launchers and missiles, and missile-production plants, air defence systems, most of the navy and air force and command and control infrastructure. But the nukes question is unresolved, although of course the US and Israel together have set back the enriched-uranium programme by at least a year if not more after persistent strikes on the main nuclear sites at Isfahan, Fordow and Natanz. But the 440 kilos of 60-per-cent-enriched uranium is still in Tehran's hands, albeit buried under the targeted plants. Trump is still talking about sending in special operations troops to grab this near-bomb-grade material, but right now he is hoping Tehran will just hand it over. That seems highly unlikely. The talks in Islambad broke down because of this issue and because of US demands that all uranium-enrichment be suspended for 20 years. Iran has come back with "ok, but only for five years". Trump will mever agree to that. But I can see a situation in which a compromise is made and Iran agrees to suspend most of its enrichment for 15 years. If that happens, then it will be exacty the same deal reached by Obama in 2015 through diplomatic rather than military force means. Surely Trump could not go with that! PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER PAPERBACK. AMAZON, WATERSTONES, ROWANVALE BOOKS.

Trump gives the go ahead for a naval blockade of Iranian ports

Donald Trump has now announced he WILL launch a navl blockade of all Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz. Yesterday aAfter noting the suggestion of a blockade by two of his favourite military analysts, General Jack Keane, former vice chief of staff of the US Army, and Rebecca Grant of the Lexington Institute think-tank, Trump posted on Truth Social that it would “begin shortly”. Following the failure of the talks in Islamabad to find a solution to end the war, the notion of a blockade to outsmart the IRGC has already begun to take shape. On Saturday, two American guided-missile destroyers, USS Frank E Petersen and USS Michael Murphy, briefly entered the Strait of Hormuz from the Gulf of Oman to begin “setting conditions for clearing mines,” US Central Command said. The short, uninhibited excursion into the Gulf waterway was not a precursor to the imminent arrival of a blockading convoy of warships. But it underlined the threats that will confront the US Navy if Trump has given the go-ahead for such an operation. It’s not just mines, some of which, it is feared, have been dropped indiscriminately, but the IRGC’s surviving stocks of suicide airborne drones, anti-ship cruise missiles and sea drones packed with explosives, all of which could target oil tankers and other commercial ships as well as US Navy vessels protecting them. “Convoy operations will entail having active optical and electronic surveillance overhead, with an immediate response capability, covering potential mobile launcher firing points along at least 250 miles of Iranian coastline and its hinterland, from Abu Musa in the West to Jask in the East.,” said the Maritime Executive, the shipping industry’s leading information source. Such a challenge would require a heavy concentration of firepower in the Gulf waterway for months on end, a commitment which would have repercussions for Central Command’s main Epic Fury operation against Iran which, if Trump orders a second phase of bombing, could include the seizure of Kharg Island, location of 90 per cent of stored and exportable Iranian oil. Could the US mount a full naval blockade at the same time as relaunching Epic Fury? Both Jack Keane and Rebecca Grant indicated it was feasible and necessary. The current US naval presence consists of around 26 warships and submarines, including two aircraft carriers, USS Abraham Lincoln and USS Gerald R Ford, now returned after repairs in Croatia following a fire on board, and 16 guided-missile destroyers. A third carrier, USS George HW Bush, is on the way from jts home port in Norfolk, Virginia. However, there is a serious shortage of US minesweeping vessels in the region. Four left the Gulf before the war started. Two are currently in Malaysia for repair and modernisation. Will Trump call on his much-maligned Nato partners to provide mine-clearance capabilities and tanker escorts? During his recent trip to the Gulf region, Sir Keir Starmer emphasised the importance of reopening the Strait of Hormuz. But a US naval blockade would likely be defined by the prime minister’s lawyers as an act of war. He has made a point of pledging not to involve the UK in Trump’s war. President Macron of France has already said French warships would not escort vessels through the Strait of Hormuz while the war was on. Tne former top Pentagon official warned that the idea of a naval blockade was premature because of the continuing threat posed by IRGC coastal missiles and drones. “I think we are still several weeks away from degrading the Iranian capabilities sufficiently and bringing in our limited mine counter measure vessels,” said Eric Edelman who was the Pentagon’s defence policy chief for four years in President George W Bush’s administration. “The seizure of Kharg Island could be a part of efforts to clear the Strait since it would provide a chokehold on Iran's export capabilities and give the US a bargaining chip to trade with the Iranians,” he said. About 3,000 paratroopers from the 82nd Airborne Division and two marine expeditionary units, 4,400-strong, as well as hundreds of special operations troops are in the region, ready for a land-grab operation. “A separate matter would be to blockade and presumably seize Iranian ghost fleet tankers coming out of the Strait. That is something I think the US Navy could do but the administration would have to weigh the disruptions that might cause to the international oil market and the fact that much of that oil is headed to China where Trump is supposed to be meeting Xi Jinping in May,” Edelman said. This raises a potential challenging scenario. What if China were to send its own warships to protect oil tankers bound for Chinese ports? Would the US Navy be under orders to let them through the blockade? “The US Navy could have seized the handful of tankers that have left the Strait over the past few weeks but it appears the administration was not willing to do so then, perhaps they are willing now,” Edelman said. Naval blockades have a mixed history. Trump has leapt at the idea for the Gulf because of the perceived success of the operation against Venezuela. An armada of US warships blocked oil tankers from leaving Venezuelan ports, but the naval siege was not leak-proof., and there was no war underway. To guarantee safe passage for ships in the Strait of Hormuz and stop Iranian oil tankers from getting through, the US Navy will have an embittered enemy across the other side of the chokepoint. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER. AMAZON, WATERSTONES, ROWANVALE BOOKS.

A US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on the way

The US military under Donald Trump is certainly getting action, action, action. For a president who doesn't like wars, his second term has been almost nothing else. After the huge success of the Venezuela op in January and the bombing mission against three Iranian nuclear (bombmaking) plants in June last year, Epic Fury, the ultimate Tehran-bashing war, has now taken another turn. After the talks headed by Vice President JD Vance, failed to deliver anything worth mentioning in Islamabad (no surprise there), Trump has turned his attention to launching a naval blockade of the Gulf to prevent any Iranian oil tankers from heading down the waterway. It could involve dozens of ships and take months. Will this calm the oil market or make it go even wilder, upwards? And will Trump's so-called but no longer respected European allies offer to chip in with the odd warship to help protect the non-Iranian countries' tankers from using the Strait? It seems highly unlikely. The UK, for example, doesn't really have any available ships to join a convoy mission and even if the government did decide to deploy something, lawyers would point out that a naval blockade against shipping breaks international law which could make it tricky. Perhaps the naval blockade threat is just bluster to scare Tehran. But it has to be said, the clerics don't seem to have revealed the sort of fear they were supposed to have shown when the bombs started falling and their leaders kept dying. So, a blockade might not go the way Trump wants it to go. The ceasefire has another week and a few days to go. So, let's see what happens in that time. Perhaps Tehran will say, "hey let's have another talk". I expect that's what Trump is hoping because a naval blockade would be a mammoth and very expensive task. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER. AMAZON, WATERSTONES, ROWANVALE BOOKS.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps doesn't want peace with the US

Donald Trump's worst enemies in the Middle East are the leaders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps and they denifitely don't want peace with the man they refer to as the Satan. They don't want any deal unless it favours their longevity, their ability to maintain dominance across the Middle East with terror, threats and arming of proxy militias and no doubt the continuing ability to develop a nuclear bomb, however long it takes. So, with that understanding, JD Vance and his two supporters, Steve Witkoff and the ever-present Trump son-in-law Jared Kushner, have a thankless task ahead of them as the negotations, allegedly for peace, beginning today in Islamabad. Some in the Tehran regime might just want the war to come to an end properly and for good, so that they can remuster, get the people back on their side and, with the lifting of sanctions, get the economy sorted, and plan for a much stronger military-style regime. That would be good for the IRGC as well, but the mere thought of doing business with the US and coming to some sort of compromise arrangement will never satisfy them. They want the US and all its forces out of the Middle East, and they are not going to get that. So the IRGC will remain a hostile presence at the talks, reminding the clerics in Tehran that they are the ones who keep the Islamic revolution going, never mind who the supreme leader is. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER. yOU'LL LOVE IT. AMAZON, WATERSTONES, ROWANVALE BOOKS

The CIA's Ghost Murmur hearbeat-detection system: fact or fiction?

The colonel, one of a two-man crew of an F-15E Strike Eagle shot down by an Iranian shoulder-launched missile, had spent two days trying to conceal his location from enemy search parties, while letting his would-be rescuers know where he was. Apart from intermittent radio contact, all he had was his personal “come-and-get-me” beacon signal. And he dared switch that on only occasionally, for the Iranians would surely be monitoring the conventional means of rescuing him. What ultimately led to salvation, however, was far from conventional. One of the most intriguing secrets of Operation Epic Fury is how, using an “exquisite” piece of classified technology, the CIA succeeded in finding the injured airman in Iran by detecting his heartbeat, the tiniest evidence of human life concealed in a narrow crevice up a 7,000ft mountain ridge. The technology that led to the airman’s rescue by Seal Team Six commandos has now been outed as a CIA “tool” called Ghost Murmur. But is it fact or cleverly-woven fantasy? It was reportedly developed as a highly classified “blue skies” invention by Lockheed Martin’s Skunk Works, the famous laboratory where young, brilliant scientists and engineers devote their time to finding solutions to impossible concepts. Hunting for a heartbeat to confirm the airman’s location, CIA “human assets” inside Iran are said to have relied on Ghost Murmur to select out all other environmental noises across the barren landscape to pinpoint the position of the weapons systems officer, the colonel, call-signed DUDE44 Bravo. John Ratcliffe, the CIA director, hinted at the new technology in a press conference this week. “We deployed both human assets and exquisite technologies that no other intelligence service in the world possess to a daunting challenge, comparable to hunting for a single grain of sand in the middle of a desert,” Ratcliffe said. The US intelligence community is keeping quiet about the revelations. One American intelligence source said: “If we’ve done something in secret, it’s for a good reason.” On the face of it, a futuristic magnetic sensing device — Ghost Murmur in simplistic terms — pinpointed the missing colonel’s heartbeat across a 40-mile stretch of land. Such a system defies the laws of known physics. However, when Trump was contacted about the CIA’s exotic heartbeat detection system by the New York Post, which first broke the story on Ghost Murmur, he appeared to confirm the accuracy of the extraordinary achievement. “It was very important, the CIA was fantastic. Nobody even knows what it is. Nobody ever heard about it before. We have equipment, the likes of which nobody has ever even thought about,” he told the newspaper. The CIA is now more than ever linked up to private industry to benefit from technological breakthroughs. But Ghost Murmur, as described, would appear to push the boundaries of physics beyond even the most exceptional human brain or computer. Intelligence sources would not confirm or deny the existence of Ghost Murmur. But reportedly the “CIA tool” relies on what is called quantum magnetometry, which can find signals of human hearts, aided by artificial intelligence to separate out all the other noises getting in the way. On the night of the rescue operation, there would have been multiple heartbeats because the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) was out in force in the same region searching for the downed airman. “Ghost Murmur finds no support in decades of peer-reviewed physics, even with the help of AI,” says Scientific American, a magazine that specialises in advances in science and technology. “Quantum magnetometers are real, they are ultra-precise in detecting heart arrhythmias by measuring magnetic fields produced by the cardiac muscle. But the heart’s magnetic field is weak,” it reports. “At the surface of the chest, where you’re about ten centimetres away from the source, the magnetic field is just barely detectable,” John Wikswo, a professor of biomedical engineering and physics at Vanderbilt University, said. In other words, the further away, the heartbeat signal becomes progressively weaker, so detection of the missing colonel’s heartbeat from 40 miles away would seem to be a scientific stretch too far. Yet the CIA director’s “single grain of sand in a desert” image would appear to back it up. When the missing colonel finally stood up on the mountainside, which was covered in bushes and trees, as the rescuers got closer, his heartbeat was revealed in technicolour. The hint of movement 40 miles away was enough for Seal Team Six to board AH-6 Little Bird special forces helicopters and head for the spot. The commandos were strapped to outer benches attached to the helicopters for quick disembarkation. It was not the CIA’s only breakthrough achievement. The agency launched an elaborate deception plot to fool the IRGC into thinking the missing colonel had already been rescued and was being taken to safety in a road convoy for exfiltration by sea. No details of the deception mission have been released. But it is believed the CIA used Pegasus spyware developed by an Israeli company to hack into multiple Tehran leadership and IRGC command mobile phones to spread reports that the airman had been found. Pegasus, widely used by US intelligence services and special forces, was developed for eavesdropping on mobile phones and harvesting data without detection. But it can also be used for spreading false information, sending out apparently genuine messages via WhatsApp and Signal under the name of the phone account holder. In the end, the operation to save the missing colonel involved more than 150 fixed-wing aircraft and helicopters and hundreds of special operations troops. However, it was secret technology and CIA spookery that made it all possible. PLESE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER. AMAZON, WATERSTONES, ROWANVALE BOOKS.

Prepare for Epic Fury Part II

It could be the shortest negotiations in history. The United States and Iran, with their respective peace plans, are so far apart it is difficult to imagine how their differences can ever be squared. A two-week ceasefire, which has already been broken, brought relief after five weeks of war and steadied the oil and stock markets. But the agreed ceasefire is looking fragile, as US Vice President JD Vance admitted. If there is any hope of a permanent deal, both Washington and Tehran are going to have make significant concessions. Judging by the 15-point plan presented by President Trump and the ten-point counter proposal delivered by the Iranian regime, neither side has even hinted at compromise. Trump has stated that Iran’s ten points might form the basis of a workable settlement. But only last week he effectively dismissed the Iranian demands, saying the package of peace proposals was “not good enough”. It’s not hard to see why. Tehran wants an acceptance of Iran’s nuclear-enrichment programme, the withdrawal of US combat forces from all bases in the region, full reparation for the billions of dollars of damage caused by the five weeks of US and Israeli bombing, Iranian military control of the Strait of Hormuz, and the lifting of all sanctions. In his 15-pointer, Trump demands an end to all uranium-enrichment, including for civilian purposes, the handover of the 440.9 kilos of uranium enriched to 60 per cent grade (30 per cent away from fissile fuel for a nuclear bomb), the decommissioning of nuclear facilities at Isfahan, Fordow and Natanz, and a halt to Tehran’s arming of proxy militia forces, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthi rebels in Yemen. Key to both peace-settlement packages is the future of the Strait of Hormuz, with Trump wanting free and safe passage for all ships through the choke point, and Tehran insisting on having a supervisory role and, furthermore, introducing tolls for every vessel to the tune of at least $1 million-a-go. The cash flow, potentially up to $100 million a day would be used to cover the costs of rebuilding everything demolished in the war., although half the toll money would go to Oman, sitting on the other side of the channel. If Trump were to accept this toll system, it would undercut one of the principle reasons why he decided to go to war with Iran. Could he even consider allowing the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to hold sway over the Strait? What would shipping companies, let alone insurance brokers covering the trips down the waterway, think of such an arrangement? Pakistan which will mediate the first round of negotiations in Islamabad on Friday, has put forward its own five-point plan, and its wording for the Strait of Hormuz matches Trump’s, not Tehran’s vision for shipping in the Gulf waterway: It calls for the restoration of “normal passage through the Strait as soon as possible”. In other words, no IRGC checkpoints and no tolls. Most of Iran’s ten points cannot be acceptable to a US administration which went to war in order to remove for ever the possibility of the cleric-run regime possessing nuclear weapons and to bring about regime-change through a combination of mass bomb strikes and leadership assassinations. Trump claims he has achieved both these objectives: the 60-per-cent enriched uranium is buried beneath the rubble caused by last June’s bombing and the five-week war’s retargeting of nuclear sites; and the regime is not the same as it was on February 28 when Operation Epic Fury began. However, Iran is effectively beginning the peace negotiations by ignoring the realities of what Trump has achieved in the last five weeks with the bombing campaign. If Iran maintains this position in Islamabad, it is difficult to see how the two sides can even agree a framework for a peace deal, let alone get down to actual negotiations. It took two years for President Obama and a team of brilliant nuclear experts led by US Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz to construct a deal under which Iran agreed to limit its uranium-enrichment to only 3.67 per cent and reduce its stockpile by 98 per cent. The 2015 deal was signed by Iran, the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council, plus Germany and the European Union. Trump, on the other hand, is a broad-brush negotiator, not a detail man. He is not sending nuclear experts to Islamabad. He has given the job to Vance. along with Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner. This means he will expect Iran to cave in to his demands, particularly on its uranium-enrichment programme. If he doesn’t get what he wants, Trump will return to Operation Epic Fury Part Two. Pete Hegseth, the Defence (War) Secretary, has already indicated the president night still authorise sending invasion troops into Iran to dig out the highly-enriched uranium. So, there is little room for optimism that the ceasefire will survive beyond two weeks. PLEASE BUY AND ENJOY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER. AMAZON, WATERSTONES, ROWANVALE BOOKS.

Can the ceasefire last?

Two weeks will be over so quickly. If the talks due to start in Islamabad on Friday to find a peace settlement to end the war in Iran get anywhere it will be a miracle. The Iranian negotiators will arrive in an angry mood after the five weeks of bombing and assassinations of leaders, and are unlikely to want to make any concessions to the main US negotiator, Vice President JD Vance. However, the agreement to hold a two-week ceasefire was a surprise. So maybe the Tehran regime might want a deal more than they are currently saying. But the signs are not good. We don't know how good a negotiator Vance is. He's an unknown. He will have a script written by Trump and won'thave any leeway. So the Islamabad talks could end pretty quickly. The trouble is, the whole world is so relieved about the ceaefire that if it all goes wrong, and the war takes up again, much of the blame could fall on Trump, rather than on the Iranian regime. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER. AMAZON, WATERSTONES, ROWANVALE BOOKS.

Trump says he can obliterate Iran in four hours

The rhetoric has become more and more belligerent and apocalyptic. Now Donald Trump is warning he can destroy every bridge and power station in Iran in four hours if the Tehran regime - what's left of it - doesn't reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Will the surviving leaders in Iran give in, facing such a massive blow to the whole country's existence or will they bluff it out, suspecting the US president will do no such thing. The brinkmanship game being played out from the White House means that no one knows what will happen. Has Trump actually ordered the US military to destroy every bridge and power station? Is it even legal to carry out such an operation? As far as we know, the main leaders in Iran right now are the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the speaker of the Iranian parliament and possibly the head of the Basij police militia force. The new supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei is lying unconscious in a hospital in Qom, according to The Times today. So who is going to make the decision whether to give in to Trump or suffer the consequences by retaining control of the Strait of Hormuz? This is a critical moment for Iran and for the war. If Trump does give the order, will he also authorise a ground war while Iran suffers the biggest blackout in history? We may or may not know the answer this week. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER. AMAZON, WATERSTONES, ROWANVALE BOOKS.

Diplomacy or hell?

There are so many conflicting and contradictory signals being sent at the moment it is difficult to make any sense of it. The war in Iran will end in two weeks, the war will carry on, diplomacy will bring a ceasefire, Iran is to be hit into the Stone Ages. Which one of these various scenarios is going to be the accurate one? Does anyone know? Does Donald Trump know? The Iranian people, the ordinary folk who hate their cleric-run regime, must be in constant panic mode. They want the Americans to succeed but the Islamic Rebolutionary Guard is holding on. Tomorrow is the latest of Trump's deadlines: open the Strait of Hormuz or face hell. By that he means he will authorise the bombing of oil and gas plants and electricity-supply stations and cripple the whole country. But Trump promised the Iranian people that he would come and help them after the security forces killed thousands of protestors when they dared to demonstrate in the streets against the regime. Turning the lights out won't help them. It will just make their lives more miserable. So, hopefully, this is all empty threats. Yet Israel has today bombed an Iranian petro-chemical plant. So it may actually happen from tomorrow night. This will escalte the war beyond any hope of redemption. Tehran will retaliate by sending drones and missiles against every energy facility in the Gulf states, and there will be fiery bedlam everywhere. By the end of this week we will have a diplomatic plan under genuine discussion or a cataclysmic energy war. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER. AMAZON, WATERSTONES, ROWANVALE BOOKS

An incredible military operation to save pilot

When the US military pulls out all the stops there is no country on the planet which can match them. The rescue of the second crew member of the downed F-15E Strike Eagle over southern Iran was an amazing achievement, carried out with unbelievable expertise, tehnology and bravery. By the sound of it, the Iranian military were pretty close to finding the American first, but US special operations troops, in their hundreds, outsmarted them and provided a wall of firepower to keep them at bay while tbe combat search and rescue helicopters, Jolly Greens and Combat Kings, focused on the rescue. Overhead there were dozens of bombers, ground-attack A-10 gunships, surveillance planes, air-refuelling tankers, Apache helicopters and electronic-jamming aircraft to protect the whole mission. If it had gone wrong it would have been a calamity, and Donald Trump would have faced an outcry. But it went spectacularly right, no Americans were injured, apart from the rescued crew member, hurt when he ejected from his fighter jet, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps troops, leading the hunt for the crew member, a weapons specialist. were blasted to hell. Such a huge relief and a massive boost for the US military who have been given a near-impossible taks, ie, to effect regime-change in Tehran, dig out the 400 kilos of enriched uranium and destroy Iran's ballistic missiles. The saving of one life (well, two, because the F-15 pilot was rescued earlier) will help to give Trump the leeway he needs to try and finish the job. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER. AMAZON, ROWANAVLE BOOKS, WATERSTONES.

The missing US pilot HAS to be rescued to stop a nightmare scenario

Suddenly the whole US military apparatus is focusing on one thing, the rescue of the missing crew member of the downed F-15E Strike Eagle over Iran. The legendary Combat Search and Rescue Teams who are trained for this eventuality, will find him if anyone can. But they have to do it before some wandering Iranian comes across the pilot and contacts the security authorities. The worst possible sceanrio is for the crew member to be detained, ill-treated and put on state television so that the Tehran regime can gloat. His survival chances would be minimal. We have had this terrible scenario before. Saddah Mussein held people, including children, hostage and flaunted their suffering on television. And of course, Gary Powers, the U2 spy pilot shot down in 1960 by the Soviet Union on a secret CIA surveillance mission, was paraded before the cameras when he was picked up and brutally treated. Why the missing American crew member has not been found is a mystery. Fighter aircraft crews always have personal radio beacons to pinpoint their position if shot down, and undergo intense training for what action to take if parachuting unharmed into hostile territory. The missing American will be hiding somewhere and he may be worried that his personal radio beacon could be spotted by the enemy and might have switched it off. If so, that will make the task of his rescuers much more difficult. But he HAS to be found. Iran would be granted huge leverage over Donald Trump if the airman is captured. With the Strait of Hormuz card already in their pocket, a captured airman would raise hopes among the regime that Trump can be defeated. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER. AMAZON, ROWANVALE BOOKS, WATERSTONES

What happens when the war in Iran is over?

Despite all the predictions that the war in Iran would only run for four to six weeks, or will be over in another two or three weeks, or has nearly been completed, etc etc, there is actually no sign yet of a slowing down of the strikes by the US and Israel, and no sign of Iran stopping retaliating. It could go on for weeks or months with mnore and more destruction throughout Iran and in the Middle East countries targeted by Tehran. However, when it does all come to a halt, what if anything will Donald Trump do to repair the massively damaged relationship between Washington and the whole of Europe? Or will he wait for Europe to make the first move? Right now, Trump is angry about Europe's attitude and wants to leave Nato, and Europe is angry at the way Trump has been treating all European governments, berating them for daring to go against him and preventing the US military from using European bases for offensive strikes on Iran. Actually, Britain is effectively allowing its RAF bases to be used as a transit point for bombers and ground-attack aircraft flying in from the US, and Keir Starmer's condition that they only be used for "defensive" operations is looking pretty woolly. Nevertheless, Europe has not welcomed Trump's war and relations now are so bad that whenever he speaks about his European partners he has nothing but insults for them. When the war is over, this will all have to stop. For everyone's sake. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER. AMAZON, ROWANVALE BOOKS, WATERSTOMES.

The toll of damage at US bases in the Middle East

Pentagon boss Pete Hegseth admitted at the start of the war that some Iranian missiles and drones would get through the layers of air defences spread out in the Middle East. What he did not acknowledge was that the US has appeared unprepared for the mass of long-range Shahed-136 killer drones launched by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) against US bases in the region. Now into the fifth week of the war, the IRGC has succeeded in causing extensive damage to many of the 13 US bases, despite the pre-war deployment of some of America’s most expensive defensive systems capable of intercepting every type of ballistic and cruise missile. The cost of the destruction after the first month is now estimated to be nearly $1.5 billion and the injury toll is more than 300 US service personnel. In addition, 13 have been killed, although six died when two RC-135 air reuelling takers collided in midair over western Iraq. Much of the destruction has been caused by long-range drones; and even though the rate of drone attacks has dropped, the threat they still pose has become increasingly clear. The US is struggling to stop them coming. The IRGC’s principal UAV (unmanned aerial vehicle) is the 11.5ft long kamikaze Shahed-136, each carrying a 50-kilo explosive warhead. They fly low and fast and have too often beaten the sophisticated US anti-missile systems on land, on warships and on fighter aircraft. To add to the American military’s challenges, Russia has been supplying the IRGC with US base location coordinates, and more specifically the daily position of aircraft out in the open, as opposed to in hardened shelters; and is now providing its own variant of the Shahed, the Geran-1 and Geran-2 which are armed with a 90-kilo warhead. Iran launched nearly 4,000 of these one-way attack drones in the first few weeks of the war, and about a dozen US bases in the Middle East have been hit. With Russia’s help the IRGC still seems to have sufficient stocks of these “suicide” bombs. “The failure of the department of defence [Pentagon] adequately to incorporate the lessons of the war in Ukraine, as opposed to just studying them, particularly counter-drone warfare, is a bipartisan failing across two administrations [Presidents Biden and Trump],” a former top US defence official told The Times. The audit of destruction at US bases or sites where America has a military presence is sombre reading for the Pentagon. *Prince Sultan airbase, 60 miles south of Riyadh in Saudi Arabia: On March 27, the base was targeted by 29 drones and six ballistic missiles. An E-3 Sentry AWACS aircraft suffered a direct hit and was demolished. Several KC-135 tankers were also damaged. Fifteen American soldiers were wounded, five seriously. The AWACS was one of six in the region, each costing about $300 million. March 13, five KC-135 tankers were damaged by a drone attack. March 1, a US serviceman was killed by a drone strike. *Al Udeid airbase in Qatar, forward headquarters for US Central Command, with 100 aircraft and 10,000 troops: A long-range radar located at Umm Dahal, in the vicinity of Al-Udeid, was hit and damaged on March 7. The radar cost more than $1 billion. *Bahrain, home to the US Navy’s Fifth Fleet., headquartered at Manama: February 28, the base was hit by drones, causing damage to radar and communications equipment, estimated in a report by the Pentagon to Congress to be around $200 million. *Camp Arifjan in Kuwait, a US Army base and logistics hub: On March 1, six US soldiers were killed at a logistics operations centre in Shuaiba port, ten miles from the US Army base, after it was hit by a drone. *Ali Al Salem airbase and Camp Buehring base in Kuwait. Both were hit by drones, on March 1 and March 5 respectively, causing significant damage to communications systems and buildings. *Al-Dhafra airbase in United Arab Emirates: The base, hosting F-22 Raptor stealth aircraft and MQ-9 Reaper surveillance drones, has been targeted on multiple occasions. Nine Reapers are reported to have been destroyed in separate incidents, although most of them while flying over Iran from the UAE base. A Reaper costs about $30 million. *Muwaffaq al Salti airbase in northwest Jordan: The base was targeted on March 4, causing extensive damage to an air defence radar system. A radar of this type costs around $500 million. *Erbil airbase in northern Iraq: The base where US and British special forces are operating, has been regularly hit by drones. Most have been shot down, although some damage has been caused. *Al-Assad airbase in western Iraq: Targeted by drones and missiles, the damage has not been revealed. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER. AMAZON, ROWANVALE BOOKS, WATERSTONES.

Trump wants out of Nato!

Donald Trump has many times warned that he might take the United States out of Nato because, apart from the US, the rest of the alliance had failed to spend enough on defence. It kind of worked because everyone rushed to promise to spend more. Most of the other members of the alliance have committed to more and more spending over the next few years. We will see if that happens. But now the US president is so mightily angry with every member of the alliance for failing to join him in the war against Iran that he is seriously considering exiting Nato to punish all the allies for being ungrateful, cowardly, weak and a whole lot of other things. Europe, as far as he is concerned, qan go hang and can look after themselves, no longer with the US umbrella over them. He might just mean it and might just do it this time. His argument, I guess, which is not actually an unfair one, is that Iran with nukes and long-range ballistic missiles posed a real threat, not just to the Middle East, but eventually to the whole world. So, in other words, it wasn't just a problem for the US and Israel to confront but was a threat tp the whole alliance. But that argument has been given the cold shoulder by the alliance. They all said it wasn't their war. Theoretically, they are right because this was a war chosen by Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu, it wasn't a Nato war as such. The trouble is, because of the squeamishness of all of America's Nato allies, we are now in a position where Trump will for ever regard Nato as as a weak organisation that can't be trusted to help out when called upon. So, why, he will be thinking, bother with the organisation? It could happen, the US cold-shopuldering Nato. That would be a serious moment for the rest of the alliance. Very very serious, which is why a lot of phone calls need to be made to persuade Trump to drop the idea. Otherwise it will be a triumph for Putin! PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER. AMAZON, ROWANVALE BOOKS, WATERSTONES.

Should King Charles go to Washington?

It has been confirmed that King Charles and Queen Camilla WILL be going to Washington for a State visit next month. Confirmation came on the day when Donald Trump had another go at the UK government, tell Starmer and co that if they needed oil from the Gulf region they should go and get it themselves. It's a bizarre juxtaposition but not necessarily unusual when it comes to relations between Washington and London right now. There is little love lost between Trump and Starmer because of the prime minister's reluctance to go the whole hog and give the US military total access to whichever base they need in Britain to fly off and bomb Iran to obliteration. However, in the great scheme of things, it still seems right for the king and queen to continue with the long-planned return State Visit. Trump loves the British monarchy and it won't do any harm to the king's humble servants, which include Starmer, to feel a bit of warmth from the White House for a change. So, Charles and Camilla, go and do your diplomatic best to repair relations and persuade Trump to be less antagonistic towards the country with which the US shares a very special, historic relationship. Long may it last in these turbulent times. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER. AMAZON, ROWANVALE BOOKS, WATERSTONES.

Have the negotiations with Iran got anywhere?

The latest Iranian interlocutor vis a vis talks with third parties to bring the war against Iran to an end appears to be the Speaker of the Parliamemt, Mohamad Bagher Ghalibaf. That doesn't mean he won't be bumped off by the Israeli air force or Mossad but right now he's the main man. But has he yet shown any interest in making a deal? In public it's all belligerent rhetoric but as the days go by and more bombs fall, destroying military infrastructure, surely someone in the regime must be saying "enough". The real problem is that there is no one really in charge in Iran. The Speaker of the Parliament has always been a powerful position but he is not The Decision Maker. The Supreme Leader is the key figure, but Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei is an elusive individual who may or may not be injured. Donald Trump doesn't help by one minute being terrifically optimistic about a deal any day and then warning he's going to hit Iran bigger than ever or destroy their power plants to make them all live in the dark. If this is a negotiating tactic it doesn't seem to be impressing the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps which is carrying on firing missiles like it has an inexaustible supply and the IRGC leaders want revenge, not peace. Is this going to go on for ever or there something in the wind which will suddenly bring back the smile to everyone's face?

Delta Force's greatest challenge

Clad in radiation-protection suits and full-facial respirators, America’s elite special forces units have been training for this moment for years. Despite all the talk of behind-the-scenes peace negotiations, the seizure by force of Iran’s hidden 440.9 kilos of 60-per-cent-enriched uranium is still one of the primary options awaiting a decision by President Trump. The US Army’s Delta Force, modelled on Britain’s SAS, has carried out exercises every year to rehearse the removal of nuclear, chemical or biological materials in hostile conditions. The search for and safe extraction of Iran’s highest-enriched uranium, contained in the form of uranium hexafluoride gas inside portable pressurised steel canisters, would be Delta Force’s greatest challenge since it was formed in 1977. The mission, if approved by Trump, could also involve either of the two other special combat units trained and experienced in handling nuclear products: the Green Berets and 75th Ranger Regiment. The decision by Trump to deploy to the Middle East about 1,000 paratroopers from the 82nd Airborne Division’s immediate response force suggests their role could be to join two 4,400-strong US marine expeditionary units, also en route, in providing a security perimeter around the nuclear sites where the canisters of enriched uranium are believed to be buried. The dispatching of elements of 82nd Airborne Division which was among the last military units to leave Afghanistan in the chaotic withdrawal of August, 2021, has already caused alarm among former members of the 82nd. “Paratroopers always get the job done. I know because I also served in this division,” ex-Captain Jason Crow disclosed. “I also know what it’s like to be deployed with no clear strategy and end game. Americans deserve better,” he wrote on his Facebook page this week. Jason Crow, 47, is now the Democratic Representative for the 6th district of Colorado and serves on the House intelligence and armed services committees. He saw combat in Afghanistan and Iraq with 82nd Airborne and 75th Ranger Regiment. About 200 kilos of enriched uranium are believed to be buried in an underground steel-walled bunker at the nuclear Isfahan site, 270 miles south of Tehran. Isfahan was one of three nuclear sites targeted by the US and Israel in the 12-day war last June. The remainder of the 440.9 kilos could be underground at Fordow, about 100 miles south of the capital. The special forces units would operate with a US Army Nuclear Disablement Team (NDT) which is part of 20th Chemical, Biological, Radiological, Nuclear Explosives Command. There are three NDTs, all based in Maryland. Equipped with Geiger counters, they are trained to disable enemy nuclear capabilities. However, despite all this expertise, is it feasible to consider a special operations mission to remove the canisters; and what if some of the uranium – only 30 per cent of enrichment away from being fissile material for a bomb - has been withdrawn to another underground facility? Such as the one designated “Pickaxe Mountain”, a mile from the Natanz uranium-enrichment plant, southwest of the capital. Moreover, would 1,000 paratroopers from the 82nd and 4,400 marines be enough to support the special forces’ mission? The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) which has responsibility for protecting Iran’s nuclear sites, has been targeted by US and Israeli bombing. But before the war began it was more than 150,000-strong. A former senior US commander who served with the 82nd said: “I don’t even know where they [the airborne troops] can safely stage, much less what they might do. “I can see where paratroopers and marines might deploy on the ground in or off the coast of Iran but I think the risks in securing them once there would be enormous.” If the operation by Delta Force in January to capture Nicolas Maduro, the former president of Venezuela, is anything to go by, there will be an awesome display of fixed-wing aircraft, helicopters and drones overseeing the mission. More than 150 aircraft were used for the seizing of Maduro. Air assets currently part of the operation against Iran include U-2 spy planes, RC-135 Rivet Joint reconnaissance aircraft, E-11A communications aircraft, often called high-altitude WiFi platforms, MQ-9 surveillance and attack Reaper drones; and two key low-flying ground attack aircraft, A-10 gunships and Apache helicopters, both armed with rapid-fire cannons to target IRGC troops. “Everything would depend on the intelligence, not just of the location of the enriched uranium but where helicopters can land with troops in a secure area, and the positions of the IRGC units,” said a former British special forces soldier who has trained with Delta Force. “The Israelis will play a key role. They have agents everywhere in Iran who are pro-US and pro-Israel who will guide them.,” he said. “Provided the area where the uranium is buried is secured, the US special forces teams can take as long as they need to extract it. In exercises in the US, Delta Force used to use a giant balloon to lift up a dummy nuclear device, and a C-130 Hercules aircraft with a special fork-shaped contraption sticking out at the front would fly over and hook it up. In Iran, they would use helicopters to fly the canisters off to a ship. “The American special forces use Pegasus [Israeli-made spyware capable of infiltrating all mobile devices] to intercept everything on the ground. It’s a phenominal system and will allow the units to be kept informed of Iranian leadership command decisions” US Central Command which is in charge of Operation Epic Fury – codename for the strikes on Iran – is also now equipped with the Maven smart system, a battlefield management, artificial intelligence “military brain”. The AI software platform has revolutionised ground warfare, making it possible to collect huge amounts of data, analyse it and identify targets in less than a minute. It will help simplify what will otherwise be a highly complex ground operation. “Despite all the advances in technology and the training for this sort of operation, I find it difficult to believe they will risk a ground operation of this sort,” the former special forces soldier said. “There is also one crucial curve ball and that is that China and Russia will be helping the Iranians, especially the Chinese with their satellites, supplying intelligence to Iran,” he said. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER. AMAZON, WATERSTONES, ROWANVALE BOOKS

Another 10,000 US troops for Iran?

This is beginning to look like serious mission-creep. We already have two Marine Expeditionary Units arriving in the Middle East, plus 2,000-3,000 paratroopers from the 82nd Airborne Division. Now it is reported in Washington that the Pentagon has sent the White House a plan to deploy 10,000 more troops. Is this part of Donald Trump's campaign to put more and more pressure on the Tehran regime, or is it a sign that the president is deciding whether to go for a full-blown invasion of Iran? But if that is the case, the US would need to send more than 200,000 troops. Iran's main fighting force, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, is at least 150,000-strong and could have up to 180,000 troops. Ok, most of Iran's military infrastructure has been destroyed or damaged. But there is still a huge fighting force available to take on the US. This bit-by-bit increase in ground-troop presence in the Middle East doesn't really make much sense, unless it's purely for one specific role, either the taking of Kharg Island, the oil terminal location, or trying to grab the enriched uranium from its bunkered storage sites. Whatever is the thinking, this war looks like a much longer-term operation that the Trump administration had in mind when it all started on February 28. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER. AMAZON, WATERSTONES, ROWANVALE BOOKS.

Are we getting used to perpetual war?

When did we have peace everywhere in the world? Never. And now there are so many wars going on that we have been forced to change our view of the future of this planet. It all looks so grim. The Russian war against Ukraine is into its fifth year and the wars in the Middle East show no sign of ending soon. For those who have to suffer the results of bombing and missile dropping, it is infinitely worse, but for the rest of us who are lookers-on rather than victims, there is now an overwhelming sense of depression and negativity. Meanwhile, for the countries which have suffered wars that are supposedly at an end, such as Gaza, there is relief from the bombings but no sense of hope for the future. Other countries where there are for-ever wars, such as Sudan, the violence and terror has become a permanent backcloth, and even worse, nobody with political power in the West is doing much about it. This year, 2026, will go down in history as a year of death and destruction across so many parts of the globe. Will 2027 be any better?

Trump's plan to end the war with Iran is rejected by Tehran

The 15-point plan to end the war in Iran looked very similar to the proposals made before the bombs started falling and it was rejected then, as it has been today. Perhaps Trump thought it best to start with a wish list and then agree to some sort of compromise. The classic negotiating stance. Tehran, under its new regime leadership, appeared to show little interest, although supposedly is ready to talk. To the rest of the world, it doesn't look as if this new regime will be ready to do anything but take the punishment it's getting daily and answer back with ballistic missiles, some of which (too many) are getting through defences, This is perhaps the most worrying development. Even Israel's famous Iron Dome and Arrow anti-missile systems are not proving capable of knocking out everything thrown at them from Iran. Although the number of missiles has reduced significantly because of targeted bombing by the Americans and Israelis, enough are getting through to cause deaths, injury and destruction of buildings. This will give the new leaders in Tehran an incentive to carry on launching missiles. This is bad news and not helpful for Trump who now wants to wind it all up. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER, A PAPERBACK. AMAZON, ROWANVALE BOOKS, WATERSTONES.

It's all about the price of oil

Most things come down to the price of oil. The war between US/Israel and Iran may on the surface be about nuclear weapons and terrorism and suppression of protesters in Tehran and an evil regime. But after three weeks of war it's now principally about the price of a barrel of oil. It can't go on for long being $100-$120 a barrel, because it hits the cost of living around the world and gives Vladimir Putin the last laugh because he is making big profits on the oil he manages to sell to willing importers. So Donald Trump out of the blue announced that talks between the US and Iran had gone so well that the war was about to end. The result was instant. The price of oil dropped. How true Trump's statement was we still don't know because Iran has dismissed it as fake news. As a result the price of oil swung upwards again. Trump probably needed to bide his time for a few days to make sure the Marine reinforcements had arrived and were ready to spring into action, seizing the Kharg Island oil terminal or smashing up the coastline sites where the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps have their speed boats for attacks on shipping in the Gulf. So, by the end of this week, there will be a resurgence of American firepower hammering Iran, and then the price of oil per barrel will go shooting up. Unless Tehran, hoping to prevent an invasion by US Marines, decides to hold serious talks after all, and then everyone can sleep better at night, and the price of oil will fall dramatically.

Trump raises hopes of a deal with Iran

To be fair, Donald Trump has been pretty optimistic since his war with Iran began that it would all work out well and he would meet all his objectives. There has been a ton of ups and downs since, but basically he remained sure that the war would end in due course and everything would be fine. While this was simplistic, because patently it has not been all right for the Iranians, or for Israelis injured in missile strikes or the Gulf states who have been targeted with Iranian drones and missiles, it now seems there is new hope for a settlement. Trump has said his two main Everything Envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, have held key talks with Iranian top officials and Tehran wants a deal. It's impossible to say with any degree of confidence that the talks will actually bring this war to an end. But Trump is holding off for five days from attacking Iran's power infrastructure to give the talks a chance. There was an almighty "PHEW" across the world and oil prices suddenly dropped. Of course, if the deal goes ahead but it doesn't include an agreement by Iran to hand over the 440 kilograms of 60 per cent enriched uranium, then there will be a lot of questions raised about why this war wes started in the first place. But, as someone famously said, let's give peace a chance. But what will Israel do? Only yesterday Israeli military spokesmen were talking about the war going on for weeks. Can Trump restrain Benjamin Netanyahu? I think he wqill have to, otherwsie any peace settlement with Washington will look pretty pointless. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER PAPERBACK. AMAZON, ROWANVALE BOOKS, WATERSTONES.

Tit-for-tat energy war between the US and Iran is a disaster in the making

Four weeks into the war started by Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu, and the Tehran regime, propped up by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Cporps, is showing no sign of backing down or lessening the tension, let alone seeking a peace deal. In fact the war is now reaching a truly dangerous stage, with Trump warning he will obliterate Iran's energy infrastructure, and Tehran saying it will respond in kind by showering the Gulf states' energy plants with ballistic missiles. And what, I might ask, is the hell the point of doing that? It will lead to an enormous breach in the world economy, poverty for the Iranian people and a wider war thoughout the Middle East. For God's sake, someone step forward and get some sense into the White House and Tehran and stop this warmongering. If Iran tries again to hit Israel's nuclear research site at Dimona, then Israel is going to respond with an almighty blast at Iran. Israel has around 80 nuclear warheads. If Netanyahu feels Israel's very existence is at stake, he could reach for the weapon of last resort. I only mention this because the rhetoric is now getting hyper-bellicose. Everyone needs to calm down. Who is actually working to get this war to stop? PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER, SEQUEL TO SHADOW LIVES. AMAZON, WATERSTONES, ROWANVALE BOOKS

How much longer can Iran hold on?

Most media reports suggest the US/Israel war against Iran is heading towards a mighty Middle Eastern conflict, dragging in many of America's allies, and that the regime in Tehran is putting up such a fierce fight, it could go on for months and lead to a collapse of the world economy. But that doesn't take into account the huge damage being done to Iran from 24-hour bombing. A huge proportion of the Iranian military infrastructure has been smashed, the leadership dares not show its face for fear of facing Israeli assassins, the cost of living has shot up, the country is effectively facing ruin. How long can this go on before the people of Iran cry out: enough, enough! Ok, it's too dangerous for them to come out into the streets and rebel against the regime. But there will have to come a time when someone sensible -is there anyone? - in Iran will make the call to Trump and say: "Stop destroying our country, we are ready to talk." So far, the contacts have led to nothing but that's because the yearning for revenge, particularly for the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the late supreme leader, is so overwhelming there is little motivation for seeking a deal. But it's in no one's interest for Iran to be destroyed. The 90 million people deserve a decent future but it's not going to happen while the radical clerics are in charge. I feel sorry for the ordinary Iranian families who just want a peaceful life. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER. AMAZON, ROWANVALE BOOKS, WATERSTONES.

Will Trump seize Iran's Kharg Island?

Iran’s most strategically vital oil facility, now on President Trump’s hitlist, is known to Iranians as the “Forbidden Island”. Located about 15.5 miles off the coast of Iran in the northern Persian Gulf, Kharg Island, a tiny coral outcrop, is heaving with oil storage tanks, loading terminals and pipelines. It represents Iran’s lifeblood and is protected by thousands of troops from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Access to Kharg is heavily restricted which is why it has acquired the sobriquet ,“Forbidden Island”. Millions of barrels of crude oil flow from Iran’s principle oil fields through pipelines to Kharg Island every day. The island was selected because it’s located in deep water, suitable for the arrival and departure of oil tankers. Iran supplies more than 4.5 per cent of global oil. Kharg Island currently has an estimated 18 million barrels of crude stored in tanks. After a mass US bombing raid last week on Karg Island which, according to Trump, “totally obliterated” everything military, from air defences to drone-launching sites, the path has been laid for an amphibious landing by thousands of American Marines. currently en route from the Philippine Sea. Such an operation, aimed at seizing control of the island through which around 90 per cent of Iran’s crude oil passes to its global customers, would be Trump’s most daring and potentially most risky offensive mission against the Tehran regime since the war began on February 28. The insertion of Marines – the first boots on the ground in Operation Epic Fury – would expand and extend the confrontation with Tehran. It would no longer be an air war lasting “four or five weeks”. Territorial occupation, even if limited in time, could provoke retaliation on a different scale. All of these factors are being weighed up by the Pentagon and the White House, as the 2,500 troops of the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) on board the big-deck amphibious assault ship, USS Tripoli and two other vessels, make their way to the Middle East. They are due to arrive next week. A successful seizure of Kharg Island would provide Trump with the ultimate leverage to persuade Tehran to capitulate, albeit that so far the regime has shown no sign of giving in to the president’s demands. The air and Tomahawk-missile attacks on Kharg Island carefully avoided any targeting of the oil terminals and other vital infrastructure The threat to destroy this crucial sector of Iran’s oil empire is still one of the options on Trump’s list. But to do so would cause a spiralling of global oil prices. There is another factor. China is Iran’s largest oil customer, and Trump is still due to meet with President Xi Zinping in Beijing later this month. The destruction of Kharg Island’s oil terminals would scupper not only the planned visit but also relations between Beijing and Washington. So, the second option, an amphibious landing and occupation by Marines would mean the US could hold the island hostage in return for Tehran agreeing to stop blocking the Strait of Hormuz, and allow 20 per cent of the world’s oil to pass through the chokepoint safely. It would be a huge gamble. Kharg Island may be only five miles long by about three miles wide. But it could require more than 2,500 US Marines to seize and hold it. Double that number would make more military sense, although an MEU is self-sufficient and comes with tanks, artillery, armoured vehicles, helicopters and its own F-35B vertical take-off fighter jets. What has not been revealed is how many of the IRGC residents of Kharg Island were killed in last week’s bombing raids and how well they may have been reinforced from the mainland. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER. AMAZON, ROWANVALE BOOKS, WATERSTONES.

Are Trump and Netanyahu doing this war together or...?

Israel is basically helping itself to targets in Iran and sometimnes one wonders whether Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu are on the same page. Trump said in the first week that all the people he had in mind for possibly taking over from Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had been killed in the huge Israeli airstrike on Day One which finished off the then supreme leader and many others. Israel has continued to target and kill other top Iranian regime leaders including Ali Larijani, the head of Iran's national security council, and today the intelligence minister. Were either of those on Trump's list of possible leaders he could do business with? Now Israel has bombed one of the largest natural gas fields in Iran. Yet Trump deliberately didn't order US bombers to target the oil terminals on Kharg Island when all the military facilities on the island were hit. Presumably Trump had his reasons - the price of oil - for leaving the terminals and oil storage sites undamaged. So did he know Netanyahu was going to hit the gas field? Maybe, Trump has told the Israeli prime minister he can bomb what he likes but it seems to be a bit of coordination and shared objectives might be a good move.

Trump disillusioned by America's allies

It has been quite a shock for Donald Trump. Normally when he puts out a call from the Oval Office, people come running. Look what happened when Joe Biden rang to create a coalition to help Ukraine fight Russia. Everyone, bar none, agreed to rally round. Trump asks allies for help in tackling Iran and the response has been tepid to say the least. First, Keir Starmer, and then the Spanish prime minister Pedro Sanche, said no to US bombers flying off to Iran from UK and Spanish bases, and now none of the Nato allies seem to be responding to Trump's call to send warships to escort oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz under fire from Iran. Starmer said he wasn't willing. German Chancellor Friedrich Mertz said it wasn't a job for Nato. No one wanted to get involved in what is seen as Trump's war. Actually while this is understandable, it is a fact that Iran under its theocratic regime does pose a threat to every decent country, so Trump must be seriously miffed that no one wants to join him. He says he doesn't care and that he will do it on his own, along with Benjamin Netanyahu. But he won't forget. Oh no. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER. AMAZON, ROWANVALE BOOKS, WATERSTONES

Does it matter if Mojtaba Khamenei is alive or dead?

Donald Trump and Pete Hegseth, his war secretary, have both been hinting that Mojtaba Khamenei, the new Iranian supreme leader, is either dead or seriously wounded from the first raid on Tehran two weeks ago. Either tbis is hot propaganda to stir the pot or they are trying to force him to come out into the open and show himself to prove he is not dead. If he is dead, will it matter? It depends how you like to interpret it. Why would the so-called Assembly of Experts have unanimously elected him as the successor to his late father if they knew he was dead or on the point of death? Maybe because there was such expectation around the world that Mojtaba would be the chosen one, the clerics felt they couldn't elect anyone else, otherwise it would send a message around the world that they had spurned the son of the revered Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. So, instead of risking that, they went for Mojtaba even though he was in hospital receiving what they hoped would be life-saving medical treatment. Either way, he hasn't shown himself or spoken in public, and his enemy in Washington is gloating that he is dead or has lost a leg or some such. What the clerics can't do now is tell the world that actually the leader they chose is no longer with us. That would look pretty strange. So I guess for the monent, they are stuck with Mojtaba whether he is alive or dead. The reality is, however, that Ali Larinjani, secretary of the supreme national security council of Iran, is leading and running the country and is quite happy to walk in the streets to show himself off. He is still carrying out the orders of the late ayatollah and knows precisely what he is going to do to fight the US and Israel over the next few months. Yes, months, not weeks. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER. AMAZON, ROWANVALE BOOKS, WATERSTONES.

Right now there is no end state for the war in Iran

There is a danger that Donald Trump and his secretary for war Pete Hegseth are making the same mistake that befell a whole bunch of their predecessors which is simply this: massive military force wins wars. It absolutely doesn't. Especially if the firepower is only being directed from the air and from warhips and submarines launching missiles. A country the size of Iran, run by a fanatically ideological political regime backed by a fanatically ideological military force is not going to give in, even with four or five weeks of bombs and missiles. You can't change a whole country by bombing from the air. And if you put thousands of troops on the ground, you still can't control the country if the fanaticism is still there. Just look at the examples of Vietnam, Afghanistan and to a lesser extent, Iraq. Saddam Hussein was beaten and his regime fell but there followed another eight years of insurgency warfare. Trump cannot afford to face years of fighting in Iran, so even though he is sending Marine reinforcements to the region, what does he think they can achieve? They can launch an amphibious assault on the coastal areas from where the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' navy is hitting tankers in the Gulf waterway. But then you have boots on the ground which will mean casualties and occupation of sorts. You can already hear the groans: "here we go again".This war, if it is going to bring real results, can only be ended once the regime is deposed. This is effectively what Trump and Hegseth have in mind. But there is no sign that the new regime put in place after the assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is going to give up. Lessons lessons lessons from the past. BUY MY NEW PAPERBACK AGENT REDRUTH, AN EXCITING SPY THRILLER. AMAZON, ROWANVALE BOOKS, WATERSTONES

Donald Trump hit by Iran's tanker war

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has turned the tables on President Trump’s “fire and fury” campaign. The Strait of Hormuz through which 20 per cent of the world’s oil passes, is blocked. Tankers and cargo vessels are on fire. The navy section of the IRGC has struck back with its most effective revenge card. Now the third tanker war in four decades has scuppered Trump’s hopes of declaring victory against Iran in the near future. Despite the massive destruction caused by US and Israeli bombers since the war began on Saturday, February 28, the IRGC still has the capacity and the skills to drag the whole of the Middle East into the conflict. Not so much with its short-range and medium-range ballistic missiles, not even by its long-range drones, although all have caused fear and damage across the region. But by its combat-proven ability to send across the Gulf waterway explosives-laden drone boats, fast attack craft armed with missiles and sea-skimming cruise missiles from concealed coastal launchers. It’s the IRGC navy’s asymmetric warfare versus the full panoply of America’s mighty armada of aircraft carriers, guided-missile destroyers and Tomahawk-armed submarines. “Iran learned this lesson in the 1980s during the first tanker war, that if you have a conventional navy it’s vulnerable if you come up against the US Navy, so they went asymmetric and relied on cheap, small, in-shore craft that could cause a lot of damage. They didn’t require naval facilities and could just pop out, carry out an attack and go back into hiding,” said retired Vice Admiral Duncan Potts, much of whose Royal Navy career was spent in the Gulf facing daily threats from the IRGC. During the eight-year war between Iran and Iraq in the 1980s, Iraq tried to disrupt Iran’s oil exports, and Tehran retaliated by attacking ships in the Gulf associated with Baghdad’s trading partners. Iraq responded with its own tanker war. More than 400 ships were attacked, 239 of them oil tankers. Many countries were forced to send warships to guard the shipping route, including the US, the UK (operating the Royal Navy’s Armilla Patrol), the then Soviet Union and France. Potts who is president of the Royal Naval Association (PLEASE LEAVE THIS IN), said Admiral Brad Cooper, the American in command of Trump’s Operation Epic Fury, was well versed in IRGC tactics because he used to be commander of the US Fifth Fleet, based in Bahrain. “I can’t believe the US won’t be directing their efforts on this IRGC capability, it’s a different approach to warfare,” Potts said. Potts first served in the Gulf when he was a 21-year-old sub-lieutenant in 1982 but went on to command HMS Southampton, a Type 42 destroyer, in the same region and became commander of Combined Task Force 158, an international naval group providing security in the northern Gulf in 2008 “I’ve always been up against the IRGC,” he said. A former senior Pentagon official said: “It’s hard to say at this point whether the US Navy is ahead of the threat or not. One thing for sure, this is not like the tanker war in the 1980s. The age of the drones [air and sea] has enabled Iran to fight precision warfare on the cheap. Mines which bedevilled us in the first Gulf War ]1991, will enable the Iranians to pose multiple problems for tanker traffic. So far in Operation Epic Fury, the focus has been on effecting-a strategic defeat on the Tehran regime– a shock and awe style of warfighting which has achieved impressive results, not least the knocking out of a large proportion of Iran’s ballistic-missile capability and destruction of command-and-control sites. Trump has also repeatedly referred to the obliteration of the Iranian navy - about 60 naval vessels so far, according to Admiral Cooper. But the Iranian navy wasn’t the real threat. “What the Iranians are doing now is entirely predictable, the IRGC is using small boat drones, jet skis in some cases, and mines to achieve a disproportionate impact. You don’t need a specialised warship to lay mines, a rowing boat can do it, depending on the mine,” said Kevin Rowlands who served with the Royal Navy’s Armilla Patrol in the Gulf in the 1990s. Mines are now being dropped in the water in the Strait of Hormuz by IRGC small boats, the US has confirmed. The disproportionate impact of the asymmetric warfare is clear to see. Before the launch of Operation Epic Fury, an average of about 153 commercial vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz every day. Since March 1, the strait has effectively been closed to all traffic. Rowlands, a specialist at the Royal United Services Institute, said: “The US navy with its aircraft carriers would probably prefer to engage with a peer adversary, like China, out in the open with long-range weapons and sensors, carrier against carrier. But what they have against Iran is more like counter-insurgency.” One way to combat the IRGC navy’s capabilities would be to launch an amphibious raid on the in-shore drones and missile launchers, he said. “But I don’t think there’s any intention of doing that, with boots on the ground,” he said. So, If the Iranians have learned lessons from the previous tanker wars – the second one was in 2019 during heightened tensions following the US withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear deal with Tehran – then the US, too, will have to adapt to counter the tricky warfare of the IRGC navy. If the US is intent on continuing the war, Rowlands said, there might come a time when commercial ships will need protecting. “But I don’t envisage a convoy of ships with warships alongside. It would be more about information-sharing and perhaps overhead surveillance aircraft or drones to warn tankers of threats,” he said. Ultimately, however, Admiral Cooper will have to do something to eliminate the asymmetric threat to the Gulf waterway. PLEASE BUY MY NEW SPY THRILLER, AGENT REDRUTH. BUY FROM AMAZON, ROWANVALE BOOKS OR WATERSTSONES. ends

Iran's new supreme leader issues a warning but fails to appear in person

The first words have been spoken by the new leader of Iran since his elevation following the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. But the words of Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, son of the late supreme leader, were read out by a news presenter. There was no sign of the new ruler. This says a number of things. First of all, he won't dare show his face anywhere in public or private because he knews the Israelis will target him and even now are probably doing their best to discover where he is hiding. He can't be in his late father's bunker because that has been destroyed by airstrikes. The second thing is he might still be receiving medical treatment for injuries he supposedly suffered when his father, mother and wife were all killed at the start of the joint US/Israeli strikes. There is no official confirmation that he was wounded. But it would seem suprising that he didn't suffer some injury from an attack which killed most of his family. His first words focused on the intention to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed for as long as the US and Israel continued to attack Iran. But there wasn't any rousing speech appealing to his countrymen to back him in his confrontation with Trump. But he made it clear he wanted revenge for the death of his father. I fear this war is going to go and on. This is not what Trump envisaged when he sent his bombers towards Iran on February 28. PLEASE BUY AND ENJOY AGENT REDRUTH, MY SPY THRILLER PAPERBACK. AMAZON, ROWANVALE BOOKS, WATERSTONES

Unfortunately for Trump, the enemy (Iran) has a vote, too

Donald Trump has changed his mind a few times about how long the war against Iran will go on. First it was four or five weeks, then he thought the strikes were nearly completed, and now he is warning there is still stuff to do. But the bigger question is, not what the US will do in the next week or so, but what Iran will do. Iran may have lost a chunk of its top leadership but the second layer of leaders, from the new supreme leader downwards, are settling in and clearly the decision has been taken to fight and fight and use the one card they have which might make a difference to Trump's timetable: keeping the Strait of Hormuz shut for all shipping and attacking oil tankers sitting the other end of the Gulf waterway, stuck in limbo. The US military may have successfully targeted 19 or so Iranian navy warships. But Iran has the capacity to stop the flow of tankers through the Strait of Hormuz just by threatening to attack ships, because as a result international insurers have declined to indemnify shipping companies. No insurance, no tanker movements. Trump has warned Iran not to lay mines in the Strait but it's pretty likely that is what they will try to do. A massive blockage in the waterway where huge numbers of ships pass through every month will have a long-term impact on the world ecnomy. This is the threat posed by Iran and there is no way Trump can declare victory over Tehran until the Hormuz question has been resolved. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER PAPERBACK. AMAZON, ROWANVALE BOOKS, WATERSTONES.