Why does Europe want to negotiate with Putin?

The worst job in the world is to try negotiating with President Vladimir Putin to end the war in Ukraine to everyone’s satisfaction. Yet European leaders want to do just that. Frustrated by the failure of the Trump administration to negotiate anything of value with Putin, Europe is scurrying around looking for the ideal candidate to confront the Russian leader across the table and bash out a peace deal. It’s a fantasy world, of course. If Putin obstructed Trump, his old sparring partner, and never remotely got close to a deal with the Americans, why would he consider sitting down with some European leader, or ex-leader, to bring the four-year war to an end? Indeed, why would Trump be happy to hand over the poisoned chalice to a European at a time when he has little affection for anything Europe and has been dismissive of the Transatlantic alliance following his go-it-alone (alongside Israel) war with Iran? European Union foreign ministers are discussing the potential for diplomatic intervention vis a vis the war in Ukraine at am informal meeting in Cyprus today. Already alarm bells have been ringing about the need first to formulate a policy approach towards Russia before anointing an individual to be the EU chief negotiator. The renewed interest in Europe taking over the diplomatic efforts to forge an agreement between Putin and Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky would appear to be doomed - but for one thing. Putin is probably at his weakest since the war began on 24 February 2022. While his natural response to that realisation has been to escalate the war, not back down, somewhere in his mind he must quietly fancy the idea of an EU special negotiator supplanting Trump’s team and arriving at the Kremlin to sit at one end of the 20ft white-topped oval beech table inside the Kremlin while he sits grandly at the other end. The Russian leader, when questioned, has even indicated he might contemplate a European role in trying to find a formula for peace. But he instantly came up with a name that would suit him, his old friend former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroder. EU leaders didn’t like the sound of that and other names have been floated, such as Angela Merkel who speaks fluent Russian and always got on with Putin when she was German chancellor, and Mario Draghi, former Italian prime minister. President Alexander Stubb of Finland has suggested he would be prepared to take on the role provided there was first a ceasefire agreed. This is all premature stuff. But the EU has Zelensky on side. He has been pushing for a bigger role for Europe for a long time, ever since his verbal battering from Trump and Vice President JD Vance in the Oval Office fifteen months ago. However, it’s trickier for Europe than it is for the Trump administration. Trump comes with his personality baggage, and Putin likes that. As a former KGB boss, he loves the drama of a set-to with a Big Rival. Trump fills that spot nicely. They play the game in front of the world’s TV cameras and expectations are high. But, as with the notorious Anchorage summit in Iceland on 15 August last year, nothing of any significance emerged. Would Putin really succumb to the charms of a European chief negotiator and make conciliatory noises about a possible peace deal after he had effectively snubbed Trump’s efforts? Europe also has its problems. Unlike Washington which has wavered over Ukraine like the huge Stars and Stripes flags now installed on the north and south lawns of the White House, European leaders have been pretty steadfast both in terms of arming Kyiv and standing shoulder-to-shoulder with Zelensky in fighting off the Russians. Europe, too, has been adamant that it backs Zelensky’s position on territory. Putin’s demand for the whole of the Donbas region, including the areas still under Ukrainian ownership, has been rejected by Kyiv. Trump, on the other hand, has spoken in the past about the necessity of doing a territorial deal to end the war. So, any Europe-led diplomatic intervention based on that sort of red line would start on shaky ground in Putin’s eyes. Nevertheless, the state of the battlefield after more than four years might still be the decisive factor. According to Anne Keast-Butler, director of GCHQ, the government’s signal intelligence centre, nearly 500,000 Russian soldiers have been killed since the war began. That’s a higher figure than has been officially estimated in recent months. Russian invasion troops have achieved zero territorial gains for months; and even though Putin launched 90 hypersonic and intermediate-range ballistic missiles and 600 drones at Kyiv and other cities on the night of 23-24 May, Ukraine’s determination not to falter has remained resolute. Ukrainian strikes with drones and cruise missiles into Russia, hitting targets on the outskirts of Moscow must have concentrated Putin’s thinking as he hides away in his network of bunkers. Trump’s focus right now is on Iran, with Cuba waiting in the wings for White House treatment. Perhaps the president will be relieved to hand over the war in Ukraine to the Europeans. He has as good as said it’s a European responsibility. However, is Europe truly ready to take on the role? In the end, Trump will want to claim the trophy for ending a war he boasted he could wrap up in twenty-four hours. He won’t like Europe getting in the way of that dream. Whoever is chosen to be the EU chief negotiator could well be battling it out with Trump as well as Putin. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER.

Proposed Iran deal makes no sense

Iran claims Donald Trump is making excessive demands to bring the war to an end and find a peace settlement. But it's just as much the other way around. The hardliners (aren't they all?) in Tehran are making demands that Trump can never agree to. Princippaly to do with the Strait of Hormuz. The situation at the strait HAS to return to the status quo ante, in other words, a free-flowing shipping route through the chokepoint without any interference from either Iran on one side or Oman on the other. Any final deal that allows the Islamic Revolutionbary Guard Corps to have "management" contrtol of its side of the strait, whether demanding tolls or not, cannot be allowed, not if Trump wants to declare victory over the mullahs in Iran. But this is what is being implied in the one-page memorandum of understanding, or, at least, in the thinking of the Tehran regime and its interpretation of the MoU. Iran, having enjoyed the fruits of control over the strait it doesn't want to give it up. The thought of extracting $1 million a go every time a ship goes through the strait would be like manna from heaven. It would help Iran to rebuild its economy and, possibly, renew its nuclear programme. So, Trump cannot agree to a deal which even hints at Iran benefiting from reopening the strait. He had a meeting in the White House Situation Room on Friday to talk about the MoU but came out after two hours without giving it a nod of approval. So he must have doubts. On the other hand, he is pretty anxious to wrap the whole thing up, whatever he claims about "not rushing" into a settlement. The other thing that makes no sense is the apparent Trump order to lift the naval blockade. This is crazy because it's working and making Tehran desperate. So keep the blockade going until all the dots and dashes have been sorted out.

Nato must stand up to Putin

A Russian (who else could it be?) armed drone flies low over the border into Romania and smashes into the top floors of an apartment block exploding in a ball of flame and injuring two civilians. All Nato has said so far is that it will defend every inch of every alliance member. But actually, that's just words. Romania has been droned by Moscow and has got away with it. It could have been a misfiring by Russia but it looks far more likely to be a deliberate strike to see what Nato would do. Nothing it seems, so Putin will be very happy. Of course its tricky for Nato because they can't just fire off a drone or two at Russia in retaliation, but first and foremost that Russian drone should have been shot down before it reached the Romanian city of Galati, and then examined with great care to prove it was a Russian brand. And then Moscow should have been warned that if they do anything like this again, it will be regarded as an attack on the whole of Nato, and see if that gives Putin a reason to be more cautious next time.

A potential Iran deal in the midst of strikes and counter-strikes

As so often with ceasefires, the violence still carries on. Iran threatens US ships with drones and ballistic missiles, so America takes instant safeguarding action, and then Iran retaliates with strikes on a US base in Kuwait and so on and so on. But amidst all the military action, the negotiators have been getting on with the job of finding a formula for peace. Now, it seems there may be a final draft. But Trump seems to have rejected it as a fabrication. So who knows what is going on. The new draft, just a one-page document, appears to say that Iran and Oman will share the joint management of the Strait of Hormuz to allow all shipping safe passage. But will this include a toll system? Either way, Trump is not going to approve a deal which gives Iran any sort of control over the strait. It didn't exist before the US and Israel attacked Iren on February 28, so the president is never going to go along with Iranian control now. But with Oman on side as joint manager of the strait, may be this could be a concession worth looking at but only if there is a guarantee of free passage for all ships, plus of course, an agreement by Tehran to give up enriching uranium to a high grade. But it may be a step backwards too far for Trump who wants two days to think his thoughts. I guess he will say no, and then what?

Never take our eyes off North Korea

It is one of the most extraordinary things about this world that every so often there is another war and we all think the third world war is about to arrive. So the Russian war against Ukraine and the US/Israel war against Iran have consumed every newspaper, radio and TV station. Death and destruction and lives ruined, people made homeless, despair and desperation and poverty. But all this time, North Korea just carries on developing more and better long-range ballistic missiles, more and more nuclear warheads, more and more long-range artillery systems, cruise missiles and every other type of missile you can imagine. Does anyone do anything about it? No, because it is now what we expect North Korea and its scary leader Kim Jong-un to do. He is building a mighty fortress around his country and you hardly hear a whisper from Washington. Donald Trump has suggested he might have another go at meeting up with his "friend", Kim, but Kim can't be bothered to meet him. All he wants to do is dress up in his fancy leather coat that goes down to his ankles and watch as the latest ballistic and cruise missiles get fired off and then everyone around him claps and fawns over their leader. It's a total anathema, it's a blotch on the planet but it's there and will remain there and the world just gets on with other crises. North Korea is probably one of the gravest threats to world peace but Kim is left alone to get on with it.

The price of peace with Iran

A US/Iran “peace” deal on paper might bring the war to an end but what will it mean for the future of the Middle East, America’s standing in the region and the security of Israel? Even as President Trump’s negotiators and special mediators (Pakistan’s army chief and prime minister), were trying to finalise the wording of the memorandum of understanding laying down the principles of a peace settlement, the idea of a grand-design strategy was already under discussion. A contained or, better still, conciliatory regime in Tehran could make the difference between a future of constant warfare and a region blessed with prosperity and improving relations. At this stage, after a bitter war which has brought death and destruction to more than half a dozen countries in the Gulf region, it might seem overly optimistic to imagine that a tentative deal between Washington and Tehran might lead to a period of genuine stability, even possibly an element of trust between longstanding enemies. It looks out of the question at present with so much rivalry and hatred and enduring ideological differences. However, the Trump administration is intent on expanding the Abraham Accords, the deal that saw the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain sign an agreement to normalise diplomatic relations with Israel ion September 15, 2020, during Trump’s first term. With Israel’s military attacks against Hamas in Gaza and against Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Tel Aviv government's refusal to countenance an independent Palestinian state, any further moves to bring countries such as Saudi Arabia into the Abraham Accords family had to be abandoned. The US/Israel war on Iran, even though supported by Gulf allies fearful of Tehran’s nuclear ambitions, further postponed discussions with Washington over its grand-design concept for the Middle East. First, however, depending on the effectiveness and viability of a peace deal with Iran, the US will need to make key military decisions about its presence in the region over the next few years. It has become an axiom in western diplomatic circles that Iran can never be trusted to act in good faith. As a consequence, the US will have to retain a permanent aircraft carrier strike group in the region and preserve the 50,000 troop levels currently spread out in a number of Gulf nations. For the foreseeable future, while the negotiations continue to find a satisfactory nuclear deal with Tehran, it will be imperative to have all the military assets at a high state of readiness to impress on Tehran the need to reach a long-term agreement on the country’s uranium-enrichment programme. There are currently around 4,400 marines stationed on amphibious assault ships in the Gulf, about 3,000 combat soldiers from 82nd Airborne Division and hundreds of special operations troops, awaiting orders from Trump for action in Iran. They can’t stay there for ever but will have to remain during the proposed 30-day ceasefire extension. However, the US view on what military assets must stay in the region to deter Iran will conflict with the stance adopted by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC). “Iran appears to believe that it is negotiating from a stronger position than the United States and is accordingly attempting to remake the regional order in a way that benefits Iran,” said the Institute for the Study of War in Washington. This suggests that whatever agreement is signed about reopening the Strait of Hormuz, the long-term plan of Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, may be to retain some form of strategic control over the strait. For the purposes of the peace deal with Washington, however, Iran will no doubt initially play ball and reopen the waterway without imposing tolls on shipping, in return for the US lifting its naval blockade of all Iranian ports. The blockade which has involved two dozen US warships and about 150 aircraft, has been remarkably successful: more than 100 commercial ships have been prevented from entering or leaving the ports over the last six weeks. Iran has lost $450 million a day in trade. Admiral Brad Cooper, commander of US Central Command, said the blockade had allowed “zero trade in and out of Iranian ports which has squeezed Iran economically.” Trump has vowed to keep the blockade going because it has been the best leverage against Tehran. But the required quid pro quo – lifting the blockade for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz – will force Admiral Cooper to stand the warships down. Key to guaranteeing the free passage of shipping through the strait in the future will be the presence of a European-led coalition-of-the-willing armada of ships to safeguard all vessels of every nationality. The UK has been in the lead in developing such a coalition. Provided this arrangement is not scuppered by a renewal of Iranian intervention, it could help repair relations between Trump and American allies in Europe which have become frazzled ever since the US launched its war on Iran without consultation on February 28. Trump was angry that European leaders didn’t instantly offer to help in the war on Iran. But if European navies can now play a significant role in ensuring the safety of shipping in the Gulf, Trump might come round to the view that Europe and Nato have a place after all alongside the US. Likewise, the end of the war in Iran would potentially have other positive diplomatic consequences, notably in the Middle East. But that would depend on something which Tehran has been insisting on since the negotiations began, the simultaneous ending of Israel’s war with Hezbollah. Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s leader, has warned Trump that Hezbollah, supported and armed by Iran, would always remain a threat to Israeli security, and that he must have the right to protect his citizens by targeting the designated terrorist group whenever required. This will be a stumbling block for Trump’s dream of wrapping the Abraham Accords around all of America’s Arab allies which he sees as the best way to defend Israel long-term and build opposition to Iran. Ultimately, the goal must be more than just containing Iran. Trump says he has found the new leaders in Iran to be more practically-minded. An Iranian regime more intent on pursuing prosperity for its people than threatening Israel, and the Middle East in general, would be a result Trump could boast about for the rest of his presidential term and beyond.

Trump really does believe a deal with Iran is about to happen

Donald Trump is all smiles today. He is reasonably happy with the way the talks are going to end the war But he is also urging caution to demonstrate that he is not going to rush into a bad deal. He says he doesn't do bad deals ever. Certainly the signs in Tehran and around the Middle East are increasingly hopeful. Of course, as has happened before, it could still all go wrong, but I think this time the rulers in Tehran are keen to negotiate a deal to open the Strait of Hormuz. One problem is the supreme leader, Ayatollah Motjaba Khamenei. Very few people know where he is in hiding, and those that do, have to get messages couriered to him so that he can keep abreast of the state of the negotiations. He has to approve everything personally, and thus there are delays because apparently it can take days for the couriers to reach him. It's a bit like when Osama bin Laden was hiding in his compound in Abbotabad in Pakistan. Al-Qaeda, the terrorist organisation he founded, had to use trusted couriers to pass messages. It was thanks to this system that the CIA was able to track him down. They followed the main courier. Thus, bin Laden was finally traced and taken down. Now I'm not saying the same will happen to Mojtaba Khamenei, but you can bet Israel's Mossad are trying to pinpoint his location via the couriers. But they can't take him out becauae there is a ceasefire and Trump would be furious. He says the current Iranian leaders are more practical to deal with, and I assume that includes the supreme leader. So stay away, Mossad.

US naval blockade was the final nail in Iran's economic coffin

From defiance to a deal, the regime in Tehran has finally come to the conclusion the country cannot survive economically if the US naval blockade continues to slice huge chunks of income from the treasury coffers. The blockade, only imposed after everything else failed to get a peace settlement, has been remarkably successful. Ships going in and out of Iranian ports have been stopped by an array of US guided-missile destroyers. Last night US Central Command issued some fascinating statistics which underline why suddenly Tehran is at last interested in doing a deal with the Americans. Centcom said the warships had "redirected" - ie blocked - more than 100 commercial vessels since the action began on April 13. So, in six weeks, the US warships have stopped all ships entering and leaving the ports. In addition, they have disabled four and allowed 26 humanitarian aid ships to pass. The massive operation has involved both warhsips and aircraft. Centcom said 200 aircraft and warships had taken part - probably about a dozen warships and the rest were aircraft from the two aircraft carriers in the region, the USS Abraham Lincoln and the USS George HW Bush, as well as fighters from the USS Tripoli amphibious ready group, part of the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit. The blockade has targeted vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas. That means every port on the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. Admiral Brad Cooper, commander of Centcom, said the blockade had allowed zero trade into and out of Iranian ports "which has squeezed Iran economically". One estimate is that Iran has lost $450 million in trade every day since the action began. Even the Tehran regime, having done the maths, realised it couldn't go on. So, a deal began to emerge. It's a renarkable achievement by the US Mavy and Marines.

Deal tenterhooks over Iran war

Not for the first time and probably not for the last time there is heightened talk of a possible imminent deal to end the war in Iran. It could all come to nothing like so often before but, despite all the fiery words from the regime in Tehran I cannot believe the relatively new and almost invisible supreme leader really wants his country to be subjected to another round of massive bombing by the US and Israel. The leaders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps go on about taking revenge in a way the world has not yet seen. But this is just words. Whatever is claimed, the previous round of bombing did huge damage to the IRGC's military machine, and a second phase will destroy whatever is left. So, this weekend, aware that Donald Trump has been talking with his Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth about the options for launchig more attacks, Tehran seems to be wavering. Talks between the Iranian parliamentary speaker and chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and the canny Pakistan chief of staff of the army Field Marshal Syed Munir, in Tehran have obviously ended with some sort of formula. There is renewed talk of a memorandum of understanding, the phrase used by Trump when he set down 30 wish-list objectives, the most important of which is the reopening of free passage for all shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. If Tehran agrees to stop interfering in the strait that will be a huge plus for Trump, even though the strait was open before he launched attacks on Iran on February 28. The nuclear issue may well be ppstponed for a later date. This is not such a big plus for Trump because his principal mantra is that Iran cannot ever have a nuclear weapon. Let's see how close the Iranian memorandum of understanding is to Trump's memorandum of understanding. I guess there will be significant differences, but maybe, just maybe, the wording will be less abrasive and more amenable to Trump's demands.

Trump has to "win" the war in Iran before midterms

If the war with Iran is still going on by the midterm elections in November, Donald Trump could be a big loser. The Republicans could lose the House of Representatives and maybe even the Senate. So the president has less than six months to find a solution which he would be able to describe as a victory. Iran is not going to help him. In fact with this setting up of the so-called Persian Gulf Strait Authority which Tehran intends to use as a way of charging all ships fees for passing through the chokepoint (possibly sharing the funds with Oman across the water), it means the Islamic revolutionary rulers in Iran will become the Mafia bosses of the strait. It's protection money - "you pay a fee or else we attack you and burn your ship". Trump could never describe that as a victory. Likewise, if the nuclear issue is not reolved that will also prevent Trump from ending the war satisfactorily. One way or another, those 440.9 kilos of 60-per-cent-enriched uranium, lying buried under damaged nuclear plants, has to be uncovered and sent out of Iran. If not, it will remain a permanent worry for the White House and for the Middle East, and for all of us. So, what can Trump do in the next six months to save Congress from being handed to the Democrats in November? Restart widescale bombing of military targets might look good but what will it actually achieve? Giving in to Iran's Strait of Hormuz blackmail would be a political disaster. So there is only one option for Trump. He must tell Tehran that he plans to redouble the blockade of all Iranian ports for an indefinite period unless Iran stops interfering in the Strait of Hormuz. And as an added warning, Trump should tell Tehran that if it fails to back away from the strait, he will order the Pentagon to bomb every nuclear site for a period of two weeks until they are totally destroyed. Then see what the mullahs do!

Iran tries to make control of the Strait of Hormuz official

Iran is getting more confident about taking over the Strait of Hormuz. It has formed a special authority to be in charge of the key part of the chokepoint in order to dictate who can go through and who can't and to charge a fee. It's outrageous but the regime in Tehran has geography on its side and it's going to be a huge challenge for Donald Trump and the whole shipping world. What in practical terms can Trump do to prevent Iran absorbing the strait under its control? It doesn't seem to matter how many aircraft carriers the US Navy sends to the Gulf or how many guided-missile destroyers. The fact is, the Iranians are sitting pretty on their land overlooking the strait and they have most of the cards in their hands. Unless, of course, Trump authorises a massive military operation to seize a chunk of Iranian coastline and put troops everywhere to make sure ships get through without being interfered with or charged. Just bombing everything won't make a difference. It has to be troops on the ground. But Iran knows for sure Trump doesn't want to do that. So before the US/Israeli strikes began on February 28, tankers and other vessels were passing through the strait without any interference from Iran. Now it has totally changed. So the war has made things worse, not better. As for the nuclear issues, that is still in limbo. So, where are we, nearly twelve weeks into the war? We've gone backwards, everything is worse than it was before February 28.Someone very clever has to sort this out once and for all. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER. WATERSTONES, ROWANVALE BOOKS, AMAZON.

UK government hits a storm over lifting of Russian oil ban

It couldn't have come at a worse time. The Labour government in UK has eased the ban on Russian oil imports because of the crisis over supply. It's not crude oil but refined oil for jet fuel and diesel and it's refined in India and Turkey. But it's still Russian oil. So, great news for Putin and his war effort in Ukraine and bad news for the UK which is supposed to be one of the leading nations helping Ukraine to fight off the Russians. It's also bad timing because in a few weeks there is to be a by-election up in Makerfield when Labour leader contender Andy Burnham hopes to become an MP and stand against Keir Starmer. The Labour government decision to buy Russian oil will play badly for Burnham. Perhaps that's why Starmer made the announcement! The Conservatives and Reform party will focus on this decision at the by-election and, who knows, Burnham might well lose. The reality is that every country is now faced with having to make huge decisions about energy supplies because of the war in Iran. The Strait of Hormuz is closed, so none of the refined oil coming out of the Gulf states which the UK previously relied on, is getting through which is why Labour has had to turn to India and Turkey for jet fuel and diesel. But it started off as Russian oil. So it looks really really bad. The US did the same but not for themselves. Washington just said Russian fuel that was already on its way to be refined for countries that desperately needed it could go ahead. All in all, the war in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has played into Putin's hands very nicely. This guy really does get away with everything. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER. YOU WILL LOVE IT. AMAZON, WATERSTONES, ROWANVALE BOOKS.

Putin is losing the war in Ukraine

I never thought I would say it but Putin has effectively lost the war in Ukraine. He may still occupy 20 per cent of the territory but his troops haven't gained an inch in extra land in the Donbas region for months, and the Ukrainian military's amazing development of counter-drone interceptors, costing a mere $1,000 each, has transformed the battlefield, making it almost impossible for the Russians to carry out successful drone raids. Ukraine, on the other hand, has launched hundreds of long-range drones into Russia, getting as far as the outskirts of Moscow and have hit oil terminals, airbases and power plants. The war is now as much in Russia as it is in Ukraine. This is a staggering achievement by Ukraine, backed now by Europe instead of the US. Everything has gone wrong for Putin. The Russian people are at last waking up to the realisation that their leader is waging a war that is destroying their stability, wrecking the economy and killing hundreds of thousands of their menfolk. The Ukraine fight back has gone through various stages. There was a moment two years ago when it looked as if Russia would grab much more territory and Ukraine would be begging for mercy. But that didn't last long. Ukraine kept going and now the Russian troops must be disillusioned, terrified and desperate to go home. The Ukrainian warfighting industry is the best in the world, everyone wants to learn from them. Sometime this year, Putin will sue for peace, I predict.

Bomb (sorry clock) is ticking for Iran

Donald Trump is preparing to bomb Iran again. He said the clock is ticking but he meant the bomb is ticking, and he has added the extra titbit that if Tehran doesn't sign a peace deal, the US will effectively destroy Iran, by which I assume he means he will annihilate the country's energy infrastructure. I very much doubt he will go ahead and do this. The world would accuse him of an international war crime if he deliberately targets and destroys every power station and oil terminal and gas field. And that wouldn't solve the world's oil crisis anyway and it wouldn't open up the Strait of Hormuz because facing ruin and disaster, the hardline rulers of Iran will fight back and keep the strait shut for ever. Trump's best option is to do everything he and the military can to force open the strait and forget about bombing Iran's energy plants. But that will mean troops on the ground. If Tehran refuses to play ball, then it may be the only thing left for Trump to do. Boots on the ground and the casaulties that will inevitably follow would, however, make Trump's popularity rating, already historically low, take a deep dive, and the mid-term elections in November will end the Republicans' chances of retaining control of the Senate and House of Representatives. It's tricky being prsident of the United States.

The UK in political shambles

This poor country has had so many political upheavals in recent years it is hardly surprising everything seems so depressing and down-at-heel and pessimistic and dreary. All political leaders promise to change things and make everyone happy but invariably fail. In fact most of the time they achieve the opposite. This is the case with the government of Keir Starmer. All the promises have fallen by the wayside. Growth in the economy is minimal, everyone is over-taxed, borrowing by the gobernment is sky-high which means having to pay billions of pounds in interest - what a waste - young people can't get jobs and can't afford housing, and millions upon millions of people are living off benefits. It's a dire situation. Amidst all of this bad news, the Labour government which won a huge majority at the last election is disintegrating. Keir Starmer is surviving as prime minister by his fingertips and probably for not much longer, and eager contenders for the top job are queuing up and stabbing everyone in the back in the process. Everyone seems to think that Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester, will be the great Labour hope, provided he wins a by-election to become an MP again. But what has he really done in his political career so far to give us voters any sense of excitement that he will be The One. The same for the other contenders, Wes Streeting who speaks like a robot, Ed Milliband, who led the Labour party in opposition and was ineffectual, and Angela Rayner, a character no qiestion but a political liability, backed by the unions which means some pretty daft socialist ideas in her head. So whoever steals the premiership from Starmer is going to have to start all over again and instil some sense and intelligence and bravery into the whole political system. Will any of these candidates for Number 10 have a real clue how to go about it? WHAT YOU NEED IS SOME ENTERTAINMENT. SO BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY SPY THRILLER. AMAZON, WATERSTONES, ROWANVALE BOOKS.

Trump tells Taiwan not to go for self-determination

There have been two comments from Donald Trump since he left Beijing which will alarm Taiwan. First he gave no promise that he would authorise the $14 billion in arms package which Congress has presented to the White House, and, second, he warned Taiwan not to go for self-determination. Well, first of all, the US has been supplying arms to Taiwan for ever to help them defend against a possible attack from China, and it would be an extraordinary move if he stopped the weapons sales, although it would be greeted with hurrays by Beijing if he did. Second of all, Taiwan already sees itself as an independent country, separated both geographically and politically from what is always called mainland China. It has a flourishing economy and is the world's largest producer of micro-chips. Taiwan does not want to become another Hong Kong, independent to a degree but still governed and controlled by Beijing. But of course Hong Kong was in a different situation. It was a British colony with a leae that ran out in the 1990s and Britain had no choice but to hand it back to China. Taiwan, formerly known as Formosa, became a republic when it broke away from Beijing after the Chinese civil war in 1949. So, there is no expiring lease as with Hong Kong. But for Trump to tell Taiwan that it should not go for self-determination is a bit rich when the Taiwanese consider themselves to be a totally separate and self-governing republic. These words will have pleased Beijing no end. Trump also said he didn't want to have to travel 9,500 miles to fight a war with China. What does that tell Taiwan, and what does it tell Beijing? PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER. AMAZON, WATERSTONES, ROWANVALE BOOKS.

Donald Trump and Xi Zinping best mates

They certainly made every effort to show that they wanted to be friends, or at least partners in strategic stability, as the Chinese president preferred to put it. The Chinese leader is always full of these sort of homilies. He loves the big language, the elegant phrases, to sum up relationships with other countries. Trump is more direct, he just likes to tell everyone how well they got on. But the big summit in China between Trump and Xi got off to a tricky start when the Chinese president insisted that Taiwan was at the forefront of the relationship he woud have with Trump. In other words, he was telling Trump to leave Taiwan well alone because it was a matter for Beijing to sort out and had nothing to do with Washington. Not once did Trump mention how he might help Taiwan if China tried to take it by force. So, unless something else was said in private to give Xi concerns about how Trump would respond to an attack on Taiwan, the Chinese leader will no doubt be satisfied that he got his message across nice and early. The rest of the summit was all about trade and AI and the need for a fair and just partnership on the global stage. Trump came away with claims of huge success and big deals. But I suspect Xi was also very satisfied with the way things had gone. Over the next few days we will probably get different versions of the summit. But at least there were no diplomatic hiccups.

Trump's dilemma over Strait of Hormuz

With its control of the Strait of Hormuz, the hardline regime in Tehran is holding “a gun to our head”, a former American intelligence and defence chief has warned. CIA director and then defence secretary in the Obama administration, Leon Panetta has a sombre assessment of President Trump’s chances of ending the war in Iran with a satisfactory settlement. “My sense is that it’s very likely this war which was supposed to end after six to eight weeks, is probably going to continue for a number of months,” he told The Times. “This is because we have not found the key to how we achieve, not just a continuing ceasefire, but a resolution to some of the crucial issues which will then allow us to end the war. The president, frankly, has very few options,” he said. Trump has rejected as “garbage” Tehran’s latest response to the White House one-page memorandum of understanding which laid down the principles for a settlement that would be acceptable to the president, including the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, the ending of all uranium-enrichment and the disavowal of any ambition to build a nuclear weapon. Trump has met with military leaders to discuss possible options for a new phase of attacks on Iran, aimed at forcing Tehran to come round to Trump’s way of thinking. But Panetta sees little point in resorting to more bombing. “I question whether additional military action is going to produce any real change in the regime. They’ve been able to withstand a great deal, and from our own intelligence the indication is that they can continue to withstand that kind of impact. So I’m not sure military action provides a key to trying to apply leverage right now,” he said. “The president is going to have to decide: does he continue to seek some kind of quick end to the war? If so, that means he’s got to deal with the Strait of Hormuz, and, at the very least, he has to provide a negotiating mechanism for the nuclear issue. But that process is not there right now,” he said. As CIA director between 2009 and 2011, Panetta was in overall charge of the agency's successful tracking of Osama bin Laden to a compound in Abbottabad in Pakistan. The al-Qaeda leader was shot dead by Seal Team Six special operations troops on May 2, 2011. Panetta served as US defence secretary from 2011 to 2013 during which he lifted the ban on women serving in combat roles and was responsible for implementing President Obama’s decision to pivot more naval power to the Asia-Pacific region to counter China’s rapidly growing military presence. Could Trump, despite his proclaimed reluctance, send troops into Iran to sort out both the reopening of the strait and recover the 400 kilos of highly-enriched uranium buried under at least two sites that were bombed in last June’s Operation Midnight Hammer mission carried out by US and Israeli bombers? “The only justification for putting boots on the ground is if you want to make sure that Iran never controls the Strait of Hormuz,” Panetta said. “When I was secretary of defence, [we concluded] you’ve got to have enough troops to cover 50 miles on each side of the Strait of Hormuz and 100 miles further in to control that entire area. There will be casualties as a result of that kind of effort.” He said there was no support in the US for a mission of that kind - which could require around 200,000 troops - either in Congress or among American people. “The only other way to approach this is to recognise that Iran will have some control, but that the main passage will be operated by an allied coalition which will guarantee free movement of ships without fees. I think that’s a preferable approach. But at this moment in time, Iran has a gun to our head with the closure of the strait. Somehow, we’ve got to find a way to make sure that that gun is not there.” “The reality is, we always knew that Iran would ultimately close the Strait of Hormuz, and we should have had a plan,” he said. “We missed that opportunity. As long as the strait remains closed, as long as they continue to put tremendous pressure on the US and the world economy, we’re not going to get anywhere because they have the leverage.” Reopening the Strait of Hormuz should be the priority for the moment, he said. The nuclear issue could only be resolved with long negotiations, involving experts on both sides who specialised in the subject. Panetta said he wasn’t impressed by Trump’s two negotiators, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law. “They are just two business guys from New York,” he said. “If Iran refuses to deal with the nuclear issue, we always know what the ultimate option is, and in many ways, it’s the gun we have [vis a vis] Iran. They have got to negotiate some kind of approach here, or they will continue to face attacks with regards to their nuclear capability. So, each side is in this situation where they’re waiting for the other side to blink. In many ways, they both consider the other side to be a paper tiger.” He emphasised that both sides’ priority should be to end the war. “rather than continue with this hit and miss approach to the ceasefire, this hit and miss approach to the Strait of Hormuz, and have this thing just continue to ultimately become another permanent Middle East war.” “My biggest concern is that we cannot trust the regime. It’s a hardline regime. We have to wake up to the fact that the IRGC [Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps] and the military basically run that country right now. I can’t trust them and I don’t think the United States can trust them,” Panetta said. “I think they’re also in a position where they wonder if they can trust Donald Trump as president, to stand by whatever agreement is made. My greatest fear is that within another four to five years, no matter if we arrive at any kind of agreement, that ultimately the United States and Israel will be back at war,” he said. Apart from rocketing energy prices around the world as a result of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the other negative repercussions of the war in Iran has been the deterioration in the Transatlantic alliance after European leaders largely refused to back Trump’s war. “[It’s] a period where the United States is increasingly acting alone in terms of whatever objective it’s trying to achieve, and the experience in my 50 years of public life is that the US, if it wants to protect our security, cannot afford to just act on its own.” BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER. AMAZON, WATERSTONES, ROWANVALE BOOKS

Trump's Golden Dome missile shield will cost more than expected!!!

What surprises me is that anyone in Washington should be surprised that a congressional report claims Donald Trump's Golden Dome space-based anti-missile interceptor programme is going to cost, wait for it, $1.2 trillion instead of $175 billion. There is no such thing as an affordable missile shield aimed at preventing any or all missiles fired at your country from wherever. Ronald Reagan discovered that when he came up with his famous Star Wars project in the 1980s. He envisioned a total shield consisting of lasers and particle beams and goodness knows what sitting on platforms in space but it just ran ran ran out of money and was largely abandoned, although all the work done then will no doubt help the Trump Golden Dome concept. But it still won't be affordable. And the truth is that no system will be fullproof, so the word 'shield' is over-egging it. I'm sure Trump will pursue it and get Pete Hegseth to try and deliver the goods. But if at the end of the day the programme really will cost $1.2 trillion or possibly a lot more, then Congress might just dismiss it out of hand. The Pentagon has put forward a defence spending plan for next year of $1.5 trillion, a 40 per cent increase on last year's request. That's a seriously huge increase. But how much of that wil go towards the Golden Dome? I haven't managed to spot the answer yet. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER. AMAZON, WATERSTONES, ROWANVALE BOOKS.

Trump will find it hard to outsmart Xi Zinping

Trump will want to come away from his trip to Beijing with a long list of successes. But if all he gets is a pledge by the Chinese leader Xi Zinping to buy more soya beans from American farmers - one of the things on his to-do list - then that will be a very small diplomatic achievement. Basically, what he wants is for Xi to say he will intervene with the Iranians to open the Strait of Hormuz, probably with the quid pro quo that the US lifts its blockade of Iranian ports. That would be good news indeed. In fact such an arrangement would make a lot of sense. The trouble is, Iran has geography on its side, and once the US warships have gone home, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps will still be there and they can interfere with the Strait whenever they want. But if China backs the deal, then there might be a reasonable chance of it sticking, at least for the forseeable future. The Strait of Hormuz is the absolute key to this crisis. Trump hasn't got the combat manpower in the region to force open the strait, so a deal via Beijing will have to do. But Xi will want a lot in return, like a new arrangement for getting hold of US technology, a lifting of trade tariffs and, best of all, a softer line on Taiwan. Will Trump be prepared to offer such concessions in return for a guaranteed agreement over the strait? He will be tempted.

When Taiwan is raised Trump must remember to stick to the script

The question of Taiwan and Beijing's insistence that the the breakaway republic must be brought back into the Chinese fold has caused problems for previous US presidents. Sticking to the strict format of words to emphasis the American diplomatic approach towards Taiwan has been the crucial factor in developing relations with Beijing. The approach is called strategic ambiguity. In other words, the US agrees not to support Taiwan's battle for independence from Beijing but also does not back China's ambitions to reabsorb the island under its wing. President Joe Biden on four occasions forgot about the carefully drafted words and told questioning reporters that if China invaded Taiwan, the US military would rush to defend the Taiwanese. Each time officials had to clarify his response to point out that the US policy on Taiwan had not changed. Now Donald Trump is heading for Beijing for a two-day meeting with President Xi Zinping, and there are officials in Washington who are keeping their fingers crossed that the president doesn't change the wording of the script and say something that will give hope to Beijing that the US policy has altered. Like, for example, instead of saying that the US does not support Taiwanese independence he might tell Xi he, Trump, opposes Taiwan's independence. Only one word difference but it would be huge for Beijing. No one knows for sure what Trump might say. But there is a possibility he might think he could persuade Xi to urge Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in return for a change in the language over Taiwan. He probably won't but Trump has proved on numerous occasions that he is unpredictable, which is why US officials are so anxious about this summit between Trump and Xi.

Trump and Xi Zinping, two Big Guys

Iran has given its response to the latest US proposal to end the war but we don't yet know what it consists of. But will it give the one thing Donald Trump is desperate to hear: that Iran will not interfere in the Strait of Hormux and will allow international shipping to use the waterway free of charge? If so, then Trump will fly off to Beijing this coming week with a big smile on his face. He needs to be able to tell President Xi Zinping that the oil crisis is over. But I fear that Iran will have responded im a very different way which means Trump's crucial meeting with the Chinese leader on May 14 and 15 will go ahead on a bad footing for the American president. Trump needs to demonstrate to his Chinese counterpart that he has the power to control events and that the war with Iran is effectively over. Instead, he will have to admit to Xi that he hasn't yet found the solution to ending the war. This is likely to have an impact on the two days of talks which Trump would prefer to focus on trade and Taiwan and artificial intelligence. Trump had postponed the meeting with XI in order to have more time to sort out Iran. But Iran and the replaced regime have proved more resilient than expected, and now there is a very real possibility that the war could go on for many more months.

UFOs are back in the news

Amidst all the news about the war in Iran, the continued fighting in Ukraine, the cruise ship with some ghastly rat virus on board and everything else going wrong in this world, it is a relief to read more reports of UFOs courtesy of the Pentagon. Donald Trump has ordered the Pentagon and intelligence services to make public all the decades of classified reports on Unidentified Flying Objects. Many reports have been published over the years, but this time Trump wants everything released to put paid to the con[piracy theory that the US government has been hiding aliens and has been concealing evidence of real alien spaceships. Judging by the latest report today there is nothing new to say. Lots of fun stuff but no confirmation that the objects spotted are being driven by little green or blue aliens. As one wonderful American astronomer said on an American TV news channel, if there are aliens around why are they just visiting the US, why aren't they going to other interesting countries, "like Bulgaria". UFOs are fun but generally there's some sort of explanation for these sightings. However, Barack Obama said the other day that he believed there probably were aliens on another planet but he had seen no evidence, and he was the president of the US for eight years.But let's have a look at whatever else the Pentagon has locked away. You just never know!

Can Iran ever be trusted?

Even if a deal is signed and sealed and the war is over, can Iran be trusted to abide by the agreement? Under its revolutionary regime, there is little incentive for the Iranian rulers to abide by anything agreed with the hated United States. One of the items being discussed apparently as part of a settlement is a promise by Iran not to build any more underground bunkers for uranium-enrichment production. But Iran is doing just that right now with its so-called Pickaxe Mountain facility south of the nuclear plant at Natanz. At this new complex which is still under construction, the bunkers are buried 2,000ft under granite, beyond even the biggest of America's bombs to reach. US satellites have spotted Iranian workers piling in concrete to make it the most invulnerable nuclear bunker they have ever built. Will this be dismantled under a deal with the US? If not, it will provide Iran with the perfect underground plant to continue enriching uranium to bomb-grade level. The nuclear issue, the mnost important one to address, is nowhere near being resolved. The talk at present is for a moratorium on enriching uranium beyond the acceptable 3.67 per cent which can be used for medical purposes. The deal will also have Iran agreeing in writing not to develop nuclear weapons. But they have already done the hard graft and are closer than they have ever been to producing a bomb. Obviously at present, with the US firepower in the region ready to strike, there has been no evidence of Iran trying to recover the 440 kilos of 60 per cent-enriched uranium lying buried in canisters at Isfahan and Natanz. If there is a peace deal, the contingency plan for US special forces to attempt to grab the uranium is off the books. That means, Iran's ambition to possess a nuclear bomb will never go away.

Peace is breaking out or is it?

One moment it's all over and the next it's back to the familiar threats about hitting Iran harder than ever. I don't believe for a minute that Donald Trump wants to start bombing Iran all over again. He is desperate - and more desperate than Iran - to find a settlement that he can sell as a victory. But there really isn't much of a smell of victory in the air. The best he can hope for is a mini deal leading to a bigger settlement at a later stage. This is now what appears to be happening. The leaked report to Axios that a one-page memorandum is close to being drawn up which states the main agreements so far, with a 30-day period to conclude the rest of the details, had everyone thinking there was at at last an agreement. But almost as soon as this memo was revealed, there was a warning from Tehran that nothing had been decided and that the so-called memo was just a wish list by the White House. This can't be the case. Trump wouldn't have stopped the operation to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz if he thought Iran wasn't interested in a deal. So, there is clearly something going on behind the scenes, with Pakistan acting as mediator. But now we're back to threats from Trump to Iran to sign or else. I hope the war has come to an end. But will it really be good news for Trump, something optimistic he can take to Beijing next week when he is due to meet with Xi Zinping? By the end of this week, we should know the answer.

Trump has only one option for Iran

Iran is getting cockier by the way. They think they are winning, that they have Trump over an (oil) barrel and that if they keep obstructing the Strait of Hormuz, Trump will be forced to back down. So what options does Trump have? It still seems amazing that after more than nine weeks of war with a sort of ceasefire thrown in, the US still cannot say: Iran has been defeated, all of its missiles and drone factories have been busted and their navy of fast-attack boats has been cremated. This is what Trump should be able to claim, but Iran is nowhere near being defeated because they still have hundreds of these fast-attack boats armed with mines and missiles, they still have production lines pouring out drones and they have enough missiles left to target not just the US Navy but also the Gulf states' energy installations. What happened? Why has Iran still got all these warfighting assets? Why hasn't the US onliterated the coastlne hideaways from where these fast boats are emerging every day. This is the only option for the moment for Trump: keep the naval blockade going. keep escorting commercial vessels through the Strait, but at the same time, blast everything in sight along that coastline. The big navy may be destroyed - ie what frigates and patrol craft they had - but the small navy with the huge stock of attack boats, is still functioning very well. Trump loves the word 'obliterate'. So why hasn't he obliterated this deadly small-scale navy, so they cvan no longer threaten the Strait?

US Navy overworked in Gulf

The US Navy hasn't been so busy for a long time. First, two carrier strike groups and guided-missile destroyers were heasvily involved in Operation Epic Fury, hitting targets in Iran, then Donald Trump wanted a naval blockade, so off went the destroyers to block all Iranian ports along the Gulf waterway, and now, as from today, the same destroyers are starting to escort and protect hundreds of commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. How can there be enough destroyers in the area to carry out all these tasks? I rechon there can't be more than a dozen guided-missile destroyers available for these missions, unless the Pentagon finds a lot more and redeploys them to the region. Iran has said that escorting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz which they claim for their own, is an act of war and will break the ceasefire. But Trump has called it an act of humanity which it pretty much is. These ships and their crews have been stuck for weeks and they are running out of food. So, Trump is right. But Iran could well start to attack US warships who dare to go through the strait. Then it's all back to war. Trump won't stand for that and he will probably declare an end to the ceasefire and restart bombing of any targets still left untouched. Either way, the shooting is bound to start once again. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER PAPERBACK, SEQUEL TO SHADOW LIVES.

Ukraine's lesson-learning warfighting skills

The war in Ukraine has been going on for so long - four years and two and a bit months - that the rest of the world, with the exception of Russia, may have become disinterested and ignorant about what the Ukrainian armed forces have amazingly achieved. They are fighting a neighbour with everything from nuclear weapons and hypersonic missiles to long-range cruise missiles but have not just survived (ok, no nukes used yet thank God), they have shown the US and Nato how to confront Russia. They have developed brilliant ways to counter the threat posed by the Iran-supplied Shahed drones, they have designed long-range drones of their own to target Russian airbases, navy and energy plants and they have forced the mighty Russian army to a halt. Ukrainian soldiers must be exhausted but they have saved their country by adapting fantastically to modern warfare. Russia kills Ukrainians most days but Kyiv's drones and missiles are causing devastating destruction and killing so many Russian troops that Putin is running out of a male labour force to keep things going back at home. The Russian leader always looks cocky on television when he is seen greeting some visiting politician or dignitary. But deep down, he must now be scared that Ukraine is actually going to defeat him. Putin may have to beg for a peace settlement that will be more in Kyiv's favour than Moscow's. How amazing would that be? Watch this space. Please buy Agent Redruth, my new spy thriller paperback. Amazon, Rowanvale Books, Waterstones

Chancellor Mertz should apologise

Why on earth Chancellor Mertz thought it was wise, necessary or justified to declare that the US has been humiliated by Iran is a matter for him. But his statement has brought relations between Washington and Berlin to a new low. And now, in retaliation, Donald Trump is to pull 5,000 American troops out of Germany to punish Mertz for his indiscretion. It strikes me that European leaders are suddenly feeling more confident about criticising Trump, never mind the consequences. But this is bad diplomacy, bad leadership and very bad for the Nato alliance which, of course, is still led by the US. What does Mertz want? Does he want to split the alliance? Does he think the alliance should become a Germany-led organisation and kick out the Americans? If so, no one is going to thank him, least of all the rest of the European members of the alliance. Yes, Europe should spend more on defence, but the Nato alliance is based on the Washington Treaty. The Washington Treaty! With the US at its head. And that's the way it must remain while Russia is becoming more and more aggressive. Mertz and his fellow European leaders must bite their tongues before they come out in public and make imprudent remarks. Mertz should apologise to Trump and make up.

Asymmetry wins wars - think David and Goliath

In case all the world's leaders have not yet got the message. Asymmetry versus might is what lets the little ones get one over the big ones. David got the idea when he faced Goliath. Paul Newman did it right when he faced the huge rival who wanted to take over his gang in Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid. He stepped forward to shake his hand before the fight to the death began and then kicked him hard between the legs. Fight over. The Taliban defeated the US-led coalition in Afghanistan with AK47s, roadside bombs and rocket-propelled grenades. Ukraine stopped the Russian invasion seizing the whole country with shoulder-launched anti-tank missiles and drones. Now Iran has halted the US in its tracks by seizing control of the Strait of Hormuz, causing chaos in the oil business and world trade. It's the Iranian version of Paul Newman's kick in the balls. Asymmetry works. It's clever, it's cheap and it's massively frustrating for a military power which has every armament in the books at its disposal. So, what to do? The US is not going to win this war unless Trump send hundreds of thousands of troops into Iran to topple the regime and seize all of its enriched uranium. And we know he is not going to do that. Tehran and the clerics know he's not going to do that. So there is no alternative but a deal. And the way things are going it's not going to be a win win deal for the US. Just a deal which Trump can attempt to sell to the American people and to the world as a victory. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER. AMAZON, WATERSTONES, ROWANVALE BOOKS.