Trump has to "win" the war in Iran before midterms

If the war with Iran is still going on by the midterm elections in November, Donald Trump could be a big loser. The Republicans could lose the House of Representatives and maybe even the Senate. So the president has less than six months to find a solution which he would be able to describe as a victory. Iran is not going to help him. In fact with this setting up of the so-called Persian Gulf Strait Authority which Tehran intends to use as a way of charging all ships fees for passing through the chokepoint (possibly sharing the funds with Oman across the water), it means the Islamic revolutionary rulers in Iran will become the Mafia bosses of the strait. It's protection money - "you pay a fee or else we attack you and burn your ship". Trump could never describe that as a victory. Likewise, if the nuclear issue is not reolved that will also prevent Trump from ending the war satisfactorily. One way or another, those 440.9 kilos of 60-per-cent-enriched uranium, lying buried under damaged nuclear plants, has to be uncovered and sent out of Iran. If not, it will remain a permanent worry for the White House and for the Middle East, and for all of us. So, what can Trump do in the next six months to save Congress from being handed to the Democrats in November? Restart widescale bombing of military targets might look good but what will it actually achieve? Giving in to Iran's Strait of Hormuz blackmail would be a political disaster. So there is only one option for Trump. He must tell Tehran that he plans to redouble the blockade of all Iranian ports for an indefinite period unless Iran stops interfering in the Strait of Hormuz. And as an added warning, Trump should tell Tehran that if it fails to back away from the strait, he will order the Pentagon to bomb every nuclear site for a period of two weeks until they are totally destroyed. Then see what the mullahs do!

Iran tries to make control of the Strait of Hormuz official

Iran is getting more confident about taking over the Strait of Hormuz. It has formed a special authority to be in charge of the key part of the chokepoint in order to dictate who can go through and who can't and to charge a fee. It's outrageous but the regime in Tehran has geography on its side and it's going to be a huge challenge for Donald Trump and the whole shipping world. What in practical terms can Trump do to prevent Iran absorbing the strait under its control? It doesn't seem to matter how many aircraft carriers the US Navy sends to the Gulf or how many guided-missile destroyers. The fact is, the Iranians are sitting pretty on their land overlooking the strait and they have most of the cards in their hands. Unless, of course, Trump authorises a massive military operation to seize a chunk of Iranian coastline and put troops everywhere to make sure ships get through without being interfered with or charged. Just bombing everything won't make a difference. It has to be troops on the ground. But Iran knows for sure Trump doesn't want to do that. So before the US/Israeli strikes began on February 28, tankers and other vessels were passing through the strait without any interference from Iran. Now it has totally changed. So the war has made things worse, not better. As for the nuclear issues, that is still in limbo. So, where are we, nearly twelve weeks into the war? We've gone backwards, everything is worse than it was before February 28.Someone very clever has to sort this out once and for all. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER. WATERSTONES, ROWANVALE BOOKS, AMAZON.

UK government hits a storm over lifting of Russian oil ban

It couldn't have come at a worse time. The Labour government in UK has eased the ban on Russian oil imports because of the crisis over supply. It's not crude oil but refined oil for jet fuel and diesel and it's refined in India and Turkey. But it's still Russian oil. So, great news for Putin and his war effort in Ukraine and bad news for the UK which is supposed to be one of the leading nations helping Ukraine to fight off the Russians. It's also bad timing because in a few weeks there is to be a by-election up in Makerfield when Labour leader contender Andy Burnham hopes to become an MP and stand against Keir Starmer. The Labour government decision to buy Russian oil will play badly for Burnham. Perhaps that's why Starmer made the announcement! The Conservatives and Reform party will focus on this decision at the by-election and, who knows, Burnham might well lose. The reality is that every country is now faced with having to make huge decisions about energy supplies because of the war in Iran. The Strait of Hormuz is closed, so none of the refined oil coming out of the Gulf states which the UK previously relied on, is getting through which is why Labour has had to turn to India and Turkey for jet fuel and diesel. But it started off as Russian oil. So it looks really really bad. The US did the same but not for themselves. Washington just said Russian fuel that was already on its way to be refined for countries that desperately needed it could go ahead. All in all, the war in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has played into Putin's hands very nicely. This guy really does get away with everything. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER. YOU WILL LOVE IT. AMAZON, WATERSTONES, ROWANVALE BOOKS.

Putin is losing the war in Ukraine

I never thought I would say it but Putin has effectively lost the war in Ukraine. He may still occupy 20 per cent of the territory but his troops haven't gained an inch in extra land in the Donbas region for months, and the Ukrainian military's amazing development of counter-drone interceptors, costing a mere $1,000 each, has transformed the battlefield, making it almost impossible for the Russians to carry out successful drone raids. Ukraine, on the other hand, has launched hundreds of long-range drones into Russia, getting as far as the outskirts of Moscow and have hit oil terminals, airbases and power plants. The war is now as much in Russia as it is in Ukraine. This is a staggering achievement by Ukraine, backed now by Europe instead of the US. Everything has gone wrong for Putin. The Russian people are at last waking up to the realisation that their leader is waging a war that is destroying their stability, wrecking the economy and killing hundreds of thousands of their menfolk. The Ukraine fight back has gone through various stages. There was a moment two years ago when it looked as if Russia would grab much more territory and Ukraine would be begging for mercy. But that didn't last long. Ukraine kept going and now the Russian troops must be disillusioned, terrified and desperate to go home. The Ukrainian warfighting industry is the best in the world, everyone wants to learn from them. Sometime this year, Putin will sue for peace, I predict.

Bomb (sorry clock) is ticking for Iran

Donald Trump is preparing to bomb Iran again. He said the clock is ticking but he meant the bomb is ticking, and he has added the extra titbit that if Tehran doesn't sign a peace deal, the US will effectively destroy Iran, by which I assume he means he will annihilate the country's energy infrastructure. I very much doubt he will go ahead and do this. The world would accuse him of an international war crime if he deliberately targets and destroys every power station and oil terminal and gas field. And that wouldn't solve the world's oil crisis anyway and it wouldn't open up the Strait of Hormuz because facing ruin and disaster, the hardline rulers of Iran will fight back and keep the strait shut for ever. Trump's best option is to do everything he and the military can to force open the strait and forget about bombing Iran's energy plants. But that will mean troops on the ground. If Tehran refuses to play ball, then it may be the only thing left for Trump to do. Boots on the ground and the casaulties that will inevitably follow would, however, make Trump's popularity rating, already historically low, take a deep dive, and the mid-term elections in November will end the Republicans' chances of retaining control of the Senate and House of Representatives. It's tricky being prsident of the United States.

The UK in political shambles

This poor country has had so many political upheavals in recent years it is hardly surprising everything seems so depressing and down-at-heel and pessimistic and dreary. All political leaders promise to change things and make everyone happy but invariably fail. In fact most of the time they achieve the opposite. This is the case with the government of Keir Starmer. All the promises have fallen by the wayside. Growth in the economy is minimal, everyone is over-taxed, borrowing by the gobernment is sky-high which means having to pay billions of pounds in interest - what a waste - young people can't get jobs and can't afford housing, and millions upon millions of people are living off benefits. It's a dire situation. Amidst all of this bad news, the Labour government which won a huge majority at the last election is disintegrating. Keir Starmer is surviving as prime minister by his fingertips and probably for not much longer, and eager contenders for the top job are queuing up and stabbing everyone in the back in the process. Everyone seems to think that Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester, will be the great Labour hope, provided he wins a by-election to become an MP again. But what has he really done in his political career so far to give us voters any sense of excitement that he will be The One. The same for the other contenders, Wes Streeting who speaks like a robot, Ed Milliband, who led the Labour party in opposition and was ineffectual, and Angela Rayner, a character no qiestion but a political liability, backed by the unions which means some pretty daft socialist ideas in her head. So whoever steals the premiership from Starmer is going to have to start all over again and instil some sense and intelligence and bravery into the whole political system. Will any of these candidates for Number 10 have a real clue how to go about it? WHAT YOU NEED IS SOME ENTERTAINMENT. SO BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY SPY THRILLER. AMAZON, WATERSTONES, ROWANVALE BOOKS.

Trump tells Taiwan not to go for self-determination

There have been two comments from Donald Trump since he left Beijing which will alarm Taiwan. First he gave no promise that he would authorise the $14 billion in arms package which Congress has presented to the White House, and, second, he warned Taiwan not to go for self-determination. Well, first of all, the US has been supplying arms to Taiwan for ever to help them defend against a possible attack from China, and it would be an extraordinary move if he stopped the weapons sales, although it would be greeted with hurrays by Beijing if he did. Second of all, Taiwan already sees itself as an independent country, separated both geographically and politically from what is always called mainland China. It has a flourishing economy and is the world's largest producer of micro-chips. Taiwan does not want to become another Hong Kong, independent to a degree but still governed and controlled by Beijing. But of course Hong Kong was in a different situation. It was a British colony with a leae that ran out in the 1990s and Britain had no choice but to hand it back to China. Taiwan, formerly known as Formosa, became a republic when it broke away from Beijing after the Chinese civil war in 1949. So, there is no expiring lease as with Hong Kong. But for Trump to tell Taiwan that it should not go for self-determination is a bit rich when the Taiwanese consider themselves to be a totally separate and self-governing republic. These words will have pleased Beijing no end. Trump also said he didn't want to have to travel 9,500 miles to fight a war with China. What does that tell Taiwan, and what does it tell Beijing? PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER. AMAZON, WATERSTONES, ROWANVALE BOOKS.

Donald Trump and Xi Zinping best mates

They certainly made every effort to show that they wanted to be friends, or at least partners in strategic stability, as the Chinese president preferred to put it. The Chinese leader is always full of these sort of homilies. He loves the big language, the elegant phrases, to sum up relationships with other countries. Trump is more direct, he just likes to tell everyone how well they got on. But the big summit in China between Trump and Xi got off to a tricky start when the Chinese president insisted that Taiwan was at the forefront of the relationship he woud have with Trump. In other words, he was telling Trump to leave Taiwan well alone because it was a matter for Beijing to sort out and had nothing to do with Washington. Not once did Trump mention how he might help Taiwan if China tried to take it by force. So, unless something else was said in private to give Xi concerns about how Trump would respond to an attack on Taiwan, the Chinese leader will no doubt be satisfied that he got his message across nice and early. The rest of the summit was all about trade and AI and the need for a fair and just partnership on the global stage. Trump came away with claims of huge success and big deals. But I suspect Xi was also very satisfied with the way things had gone. Over the next few days we will probably get different versions of the summit. But at least there were no diplomatic hiccups.

Trump's dilemma over Strait of Hormuz

With its control of the Strait of Hormuz, the hardline regime in Tehran is holding “a gun to our head”, a former American intelligence and defence chief has warned. CIA director and then defence secretary in the Obama administration, Leon Panetta has a sombre assessment of President Trump’s chances of ending the war in Iran with a satisfactory settlement. “My sense is that it’s very likely this war which was supposed to end after six to eight weeks, is probably going to continue for a number of months,” he told The Times. “This is because we have not found the key to how we achieve, not just a continuing ceasefire, but a resolution to some of the crucial issues which will then allow us to end the war. The president, frankly, has very few options,” he said. Trump has rejected as “garbage” Tehran’s latest response to the White House one-page memorandum of understanding which laid down the principles for a settlement that would be acceptable to the president, including the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, the ending of all uranium-enrichment and the disavowal of any ambition to build a nuclear weapon. Trump has met with military leaders to discuss possible options for a new phase of attacks on Iran, aimed at forcing Tehran to come round to Trump’s way of thinking. But Panetta sees little point in resorting to more bombing. “I question whether additional military action is going to produce any real change in the regime. They’ve been able to withstand a great deal, and from our own intelligence the indication is that they can continue to withstand that kind of impact. So I’m not sure military action provides a key to trying to apply leverage right now,” he said. “The president is going to have to decide: does he continue to seek some kind of quick end to the war? If so, that means he’s got to deal with the Strait of Hormuz, and, at the very least, he has to provide a negotiating mechanism for the nuclear issue. But that process is not there right now,” he said. As CIA director between 2009 and 2011, Panetta was in overall charge of the agency's successful tracking of Osama bin Laden to a compound in Abbottabad in Pakistan. The al-Qaeda leader was shot dead by Seal Team Six special operations troops on May 2, 2011. Panetta served as US defence secretary from 2011 to 2013 during which he lifted the ban on women serving in combat roles and was responsible for implementing President Obama’s decision to pivot more naval power to the Asia-Pacific region to counter China’s rapidly growing military presence. Could Trump, despite his proclaimed reluctance, send troops into Iran to sort out both the reopening of the strait and recover the 400 kilos of highly-enriched uranium buried under at least two sites that were bombed in last June’s Operation Midnight Hammer mission carried out by US and Israeli bombers? “The only justification for putting boots on the ground is if you want to make sure that Iran never controls the Strait of Hormuz,” Panetta said. “When I was secretary of defence, [we concluded] you’ve got to have enough troops to cover 50 miles on each side of the Strait of Hormuz and 100 miles further in to control that entire area. There will be casualties as a result of that kind of effort.” He said there was no support in the US for a mission of that kind - which could require around 200,000 troops - either in Congress or among American people. “The only other way to approach this is to recognise that Iran will have some control, but that the main passage will be operated by an allied coalition which will guarantee free movement of ships without fees. I think that’s a preferable approach. But at this moment in time, Iran has a gun to our head with the closure of the strait. Somehow, we’ve got to find a way to make sure that that gun is not there.” “The reality is, we always knew that Iran would ultimately close the Strait of Hormuz, and we should have had a plan,” he said. “We missed that opportunity. As long as the strait remains closed, as long as they continue to put tremendous pressure on the US and the world economy, we’re not going to get anywhere because they have the leverage.” Reopening the Strait of Hormuz should be the priority for the moment, he said. The nuclear issue could only be resolved with long negotiations, involving experts on both sides who specialised in the subject. Panetta said he wasn’t impressed by Trump’s two negotiators, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law. “They are just two business guys from New York,” he said. “If Iran refuses to deal with the nuclear issue, we always know what the ultimate option is, and in many ways, it’s the gun we have [vis a vis] Iran. They have got to negotiate some kind of approach here, or they will continue to face attacks with regards to their nuclear capability. So, each side is in this situation where they’re waiting for the other side to blink. In many ways, they both consider the other side to be a paper tiger.” He emphasised that both sides’ priority should be to end the war. “rather than continue with this hit and miss approach to the ceasefire, this hit and miss approach to the Strait of Hormuz, and have this thing just continue to ultimately become another permanent Middle East war.” “My biggest concern is that we cannot trust the regime. It’s a hardline regime. We have to wake up to the fact that the IRGC [Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps] and the military basically run that country right now. I can’t trust them and I don’t think the United States can trust them,” Panetta said. “I think they’re also in a position where they wonder if they can trust Donald Trump as president, to stand by whatever agreement is made. My greatest fear is that within another four to five years, no matter if we arrive at any kind of agreement, that ultimately the United States and Israel will be back at war,” he said. Apart from rocketing energy prices around the world as a result of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the other negative repercussions of the war in Iran has been the deterioration in the Transatlantic alliance after European leaders largely refused to back Trump’s war. “[It’s] a period where the United States is increasingly acting alone in terms of whatever objective it’s trying to achieve, and the experience in my 50 years of public life is that the US, if it wants to protect our security, cannot afford to just act on its own.” BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER. AMAZON, WATERSTONES, ROWANVALE BOOKS

Trump's Golden Dome missile shield will cost more than expected!!!

What surprises me is that anyone in Washington should be surprised that a congressional report claims Donald Trump's Golden Dome space-based anti-missile interceptor programme is going to cost, wait for it, $1.2 trillion instead of $175 billion. There is no such thing as an affordable missile shield aimed at preventing any or all missiles fired at your country from wherever. Ronald Reagan discovered that when he came up with his famous Star Wars project in the 1980s. He envisioned a total shield consisting of lasers and particle beams and goodness knows what sitting on platforms in space but it just ran ran ran out of money and was largely abandoned, although all the work done then will no doubt help the Trump Golden Dome concept. But it still won't be affordable. And the truth is that no system will be fullproof, so the word 'shield' is over-egging it. I'm sure Trump will pursue it and get Pete Hegseth to try and deliver the goods. But if at the end of the day the programme really will cost $1.2 trillion or possibly a lot more, then Congress might just dismiss it out of hand. The Pentagon has put forward a defence spending plan for next year of $1.5 trillion, a 40 per cent increase on last year's request. That's a seriously huge increase. But how much of that wil go towards the Golden Dome? I haven't managed to spot the answer yet. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER. AMAZON, WATERSTONES, ROWANVALE BOOKS.

Trump will find it hard to outsmart Xi Zinping

Trump will want to come away from his trip to Beijing with a long list of successes. But if all he gets is a pledge by the Chinese leader Xi Zinping to buy more soya beans from American farmers - one of the things on his to-do list - then that will be a very small diplomatic achievement. Basically, what he wants is for Xi to say he will intervene with the Iranians to open the Strait of Hormuz, probably with the quid pro quo that the US lifts its blockade of Iranian ports. That would be good news indeed. In fact such an arrangement would make a lot of sense. The trouble is, Iran has geography on its side, and once the US warships have gone home, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps will still be there and they can interfere with the Strait whenever they want. But if China backs the deal, then there might be a reasonable chance of it sticking, at least for the forseeable future. The Strait of Hormuz is the absolute key to this crisis. Trump hasn't got the combat manpower in the region to force open the strait, so a deal via Beijing will have to do. But Xi will want a lot in return, like a new arrangement for getting hold of US technology, a lifting of trade tariffs and, best of all, a softer line on Taiwan. Will Trump be prepared to offer such concessions in return for a guaranteed agreement over the strait? He will be tempted.

When Taiwan is raised Trump must remember to stick to the script

The question of Taiwan and Beijing's insistence that the the breakaway republic must be brought back into the Chinese fold has caused problems for previous US presidents. Sticking to the strict format of words to emphasis the American diplomatic approach towards Taiwan has been the crucial factor in developing relations with Beijing. The approach is called strategic ambiguity. In other words, the US agrees not to support Taiwan's battle for independence from Beijing but also does not back China's ambitions to reabsorb the island under its wing. President Joe Biden on four occasions forgot about the carefully drafted words and told questioning reporters that if China invaded Taiwan, the US military would rush to defend the Taiwanese. Each time officials had to clarify his response to point out that the US policy on Taiwan had not changed. Now Donald Trump is heading for Beijing for a two-day meeting with President Xi Zinping, and there are officials in Washington who are keeping their fingers crossed that the president doesn't change the wording of the script and say something that will give hope to Beijing that the US policy has altered. Like, for example, instead of saying that the US does not support Taiwanese independence he might tell Xi he, Trump, opposes Taiwan's independence. Only one word difference but it would be huge for Beijing. No one knows for sure what Trump might say. But there is a possibility he might think he could persuade Xi to urge Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in return for a change in the language over Taiwan. He probably won't but Trump has proved on numerous occasions that he is unpredictable, which is why US officials are so anxious about this summit between Trump and Xi.

Trump and Xi Zinping, two Big Guys

Iran has given its response to the latest US proposal to end the war but we don't yet know what it consists of. But will it give the one thing Donald Trump is desperate to hear: that Iran will not interfere in the Strait of Hormux and will allow international shipping to use the waterway free of charge? If so, then Trump will fly off to Beijing this coming week with a big smile on his face. He needs to be able to tell President Xi Zinping that the oil crisis is over. But I fear that Iran will have responded im a very different way which means Trump's crucial meeting with the Chinese leader on May 14 and 15 will go ahead on a bad footing for the American president. Trump needs to demonstrate to his Chinese counterpart that he has the power to control events and that the war with Iran is effectively over. Instead, he will have to admit to Xi that he hasn't yet found the solution to ending the war. This is likely to have an impact on the two days of talks which Trump would prefer to focus on trade and Taiwan and artificial intelligence. Trump had postponed the meeting with XI in order to have more time to sort out Iran. But Iran and the replaced regime have proved more resilient than expected, and now there is a very real possibility that the war could go on for many more months.

UFOs are back in the news

Amidst all the news about the war in Iran, the continued fighting in Ukraine, the cruise ship with some ghastly rat virus on board and everything else going wrong in this world, it is a relief to read more reports of UFOs courtesy of the Pentagon. Donald Trump has ordered the Pentagon and intelligence services to make public all the decades of classified reports on Unidentified Flying Objects. Many reports have been published over the years, but this time Trump wants everything released to put paid to the con[piracy theory that the US government has been hiding aliens and has been concealing evidence of real alien spaceships. Judging by the latest report today there is nothing new to say. Lots of fun stuff but no confirmation that the objects spotted are being driven by little green or blue aliens. As one wonderful American astronomer said on an American TV news channel, if there are aliens around why are they just visiting the US, why aren't they going to other interesting countries, "like Bulgaria". UFOs are fun but generally there's some sort of explanation for these sightings. However, Barack Obama said the other day that he believed there probably were aliens on another planet but he had seen no evidence, and he was the president of the US for eight years.But let's have a look at whatever else the Pentagon has locked away. You just never know!

Can Iran ever be trusted?

Even if a deal is signed and sealed and the war is over, can Iran be trusted to abide by the agreement? Under its revolutionary regime, there is little incentive for the Iranian rulers to abide by anything agreed with the hated United States. One of the items being discussed apparently as part of a settlement is a promise by Iran not to build any more underground bunkers for uranium-enrichment production. But Iran is doing just that right now with its so-called Pickaxe Mountain facility south of the nuclear plant at Natanz. At this new complex which is still under construction, the bunkers are buried 2,000ft under granite, beyond even the biggest of America's bombs to reach. US satellites have spotted Iranian workers piling in concrete to make it the most invulnerable nuclear bunker they have ever built. Will this be dismantled under a deal with the US? If not, it will provide Iran with the perfect underground plant to continue enriching uranium to bomb-grade level. The nuclear issue, the mnost important one to address, is nowhere near being resolved. The talk at present is for a moratorium on enriching uranium beyond the acceptable 3.67 per cent which can be used for medical purposes. The deal will also have Iran agreeing in writing not to develop nuclear weapons. But they have already done the hard graft and are closer than they have ever been to producing a bomb. Obviously at present, with the US firepower in the region ready to strike, there has been no evidence of Iran trying to recover the 440 kilos of 60 per cent-enriched uranium lying buried in canisters at Isfahan and Natanz. If there is a peace deal, the contingency plan for US special forces to attempt to grab the uranium is off the books. That means, Iran's ambition to possess a nuclear bomb will never go away.

Peace is breaking out or is it?

One moment it's all over and the next it's back to the familiar threats about hitting Iran harder than ever. I don't believe for a minute that Donald Trump wants to start bombing Iran all over again. He is desperate - and more desperate than Iran - to find a settlement that he can sell as a victory. But there really isn't much of a smell of victory in the air. The best he can hope for is a mini deal leading to a bigger settlement at a later stage. This is now what appears to be happening. The leaked report to Axios that a one-page memorandum is close to being drawn up which states the main agreements so far, with a 30-day period to conclude the rest of the details, had everyone thinking there was at at last an agreement. But almost as soon as this memo was revealed, there was a warning from Tehran that nothing had been decided and that the so-called memo was just a wish list by the White House. This can't be the case. Trump wouldn't have stopped the operation to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz if he thought Iran wasn't interested in a deal. So, there is clearly something going on behind the scenes, with Pakistan acting as mediator. But now we're back to threats from Trump to Iran to sign or else. I hope the war has come to an end. But will it really be good news for Trump, something optimistic he can take to Beijing next week when he is due to meet with Xi Zinping? By the end of this week, we should know the answer.

Trump has only one option for Iran

Iran is getting cockier by the way. They think they are winning, that they have Trump over an (oil) barrel and that if they keep obstructing the Strait of Hormuz, Trump will be forced to back down. So what options does Trump have? It still seems amazing that after more than nine weeks of war with a sort of ceasefire thrown in, the US still cannot say: Iran has been defeated, all of its missiles and drone factories have been busted and their navy of fast-attack boats has been cremated. This is what Trump should be able to claim, but Iran is nowhere near being defeated because they still have hundreds of these fast-attack boats armed with mines and missiles, they still have production lines pouring out drones and they have enough missiles left to target not just the US Navy but also the Gulf states' energy installations. What happened? Why has Iran still got all these warfighting assets? Why hasn't the US onliterated the coastlne hideaways from where these fast boats are emerging every day. This is the only option for the moment for Trump: keep the naval blockade going. keep escorting commercial vessels through the Strait, but at the same time, blast everything in sight along that coastline. The big navy may be destroyed - ie what frigates and patrol craft they had - but the small navy with the huge stock of attack boats, is still functioning very well. Trump loves the word 'obliterate'. So why hasn't he obliterated this deadly small-scale navy, so they cvan no longer threaten the Strait?

US Navy overworked in Gulf

The US Navy hasn't been so busy for a long time. First, two carrier strike groups and guided-missile destroyers were heasvily involved in Operation Epic Fury, hitting targets in Iran, then Donald Trump wanted a naval blockade, so off went the destroyers to block all Iranian ports along the Gulf waterway, and now, as from today, the same destroyers are starting to escort and protect hundreds of commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. How can there be enough destroyers in the area to carry out all these tasks? I rechon there can't be more than a dozen guided-missile destroyers available for these missions, unless the Pentagon finds a lot more and redeploys them to the region. Iran has said that escorting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz which they claim for their own, is an act of war and will break the ceasefire. But Trump has called it an act of humanity which it pretty much is. These ships and their crews have been stuck for weeks and they are running out of food. So, Trump is right. But Iran could well start to attack US warships who dare to go through the strait. Then it's all back to war. Trump won't stand for that and he will probably declare an end to the ceasefire and restart bombing of any targets still left untouched. Either way, the shooting is bound to start once again. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER PAPERBACK, SEQUEL TO SHADOW LIVES.

Ukraine's lesson-learning warfighting skills

The war in Ukraine has been going on for so long - four years and two and a bit months - that the rest of the world, with the exception of Russia, may have become disinterested and ignorant about what the Ukrainian armed forces have amazingly achieved. They are fighting a neighbour with everything from nuclear weapons and hypersonic missiles to long-range cruise missiles but have not just survived (ok, no nukes used yet thank God), they have shown the US and Nato how to confront Russia. They have developed brilliant ways to counter the threat posed by the Iran-supplied Shahed drones, they have designed long-range drones of their own to target Russian airbases, navy and energy plants and they have forced the mighty Russian army to a halt. Ukrainian soldiers must be exhausted but they have saved their country by adapting fantastically to modern warfare. Russia kills Ukrainians most days but Kyiv's drones and missiles are causing devastating destruction and killing so many Russian troops that Putin is running out of a male labour force to keep things going back at home. The Russian leader always looks cocky on television when he is seen greeting some visiting politician or dignitary. But deep down, he must now be scared that Ukraine is actually going to defeat him. Putin may have to beg for a peace settlement that will be more in Kyiv's favour than Moscow's. How amazing would that be? Watch this space. Please buy Agent Redruth, my new spy thriller paperback. Amazon, Rowanvale Books, Waterstones

Chancellor Mertz should apologise

Why on earth Chancellor Mertz thought it was wise, necessary or justified to declare that the US has been humiliated by Iran is a matter for him. But his statement has brought relations between Washington and Berlin to a new low. And now, in retaliation, Donald Trump is to pull 5,000 American troops out of Germany to punish Mertz for his indiscretion. It strikes me that European leaders are suddenly feeling more confident about criticising Trump, never mind the consequences. But this is bad diplomacy, bad leadership and very bad for the Nato alliance which, of course, is still led by the US. What does Mertz want? Does he want to split the alliance? Does he think the alliance should become a Germany-led organisation and kick out the Americans? If so, no one is going to thank him, least of all the rest of the European members of the alliance. Yes, Europe should spend more on defence, but the Nato alliance is based on the Washington Treaty. The Washington Treaty! With the US at its head. And that's the way it must remain while Russia is becoming more and more aggressive. Mertz and his fellow European leaders must bite their tongues before they come out in public and make imprudent remarks. Mertz should apologise to Trump and make up.

Asymmetry wins wars - think David and Goliath

In case all the world's leaders have not yet got the message. Asymmetry versus might is what lets the little ones get one over the big ones. David got the idea when he faced Goliath. Paul Newman did it right when he faced the huge rival who wanted to take over his gang in Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid. He stepped forward to shake his hand before the fight to the death began and then kicked him hard between the legs. Fight over. The Taliban defeated the US-led coalition in Afghanistan with AK47s, roadside bombs and rocket-propelled grenades. Ukraine stopped the Russian invasion seizing the whole country with shoulder-launched anti-tank missiles and drones. Now Iran has halted the US in its tracks by seizing control of the Strait of Hormuz, causing chaos in the oil business and world trade. It's the Iranian version of Paul Newman's kick in the balls. Asymmetry works. It's clever, it's cheap and it's massively frustrating for a military power which has every armament in the books at its disposal. So, what to do? The US is not going to win this war unless Trump send hundreds of thousands of troops into Iran to topple the regime and seize all of its enriched uranium. And we know he is not going to do that. Tehran and the clerics know he's not going to do that. So there is no alternative but a deal. And the way things are going it's not going to be a win win deal for the US. Just a deal which Trump can attempt to sell to the American people and to the world as a victory. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER. AMAZON, WATERSTONES, ROWANVALE BOOKS.