The attack on the Gaza town of Rafah appears imminent

It has always been the case in modern times that where the television cameras are, that's where the news will be. And moe often than not, the TV cameras can't be everywhere in the world at the same time, so a lot of bad stuff gets unreported while the cameras are concentrated elsewhere. For example, the civil war in Sudan has been going on for a year between the Sudanese armed forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces but we know little of what is going on. There are too many other conflicts for the TV crews to cover. In the same way, the war in Gaza was almost put to one side when Iran and Israel attacked each other. That became the headline news. What went on in Gaza while the world was focusing on the terrifying possibility of an outright war between Israel and Iran was lost in translation. Now Gaza is back in the news big time, with the desperately tragic reports of the Palestinian baby pulled from its dead mother's womb following an Israeli air strike. And the attack on the town of Rafah in the south by the Israel Defence Forces is imminent. Perhaps even next week. One hopes that the IDF will have such strict rules of engagement that Rafah will not be reduced to a pile of concrete rubble. However, after more than six months it is one of the most extraordinary facts that the main leaders of Hamas are still alive and hiding in an underground tunnel or bunker and are still able to mastermind retaliatory strikes against the IDF. AND that more than 100 Israeli hostages are still being held, despite all the firepower and combat experience the IDF has at its disposal and the ingenuity and skills of Mossad and other secretive special agencies. Rafah is truly going to be a momentous battle, and the TV cameras will be watching.

Trump immune from prosecution or (definitely) not?

The wisest judges in the US of A will start considering today all the arguments over whether Donald Trump should enjoy immunity from prosecution. Looking at all the claimed precedents in US legal history where immunity has been discussed, it is truly difficult to see how the federal Supreme Court could conclude anything other than downright rejection of the Trump lawyers' case. But the Supreme Court is a wonderful body of men and women, all appointed by presidential choice, who may have dfferent ideas about the constitution and the role of the president. But basically Trump has been charged with interfering in the US 2020 election and trying to subvert the result, a charge so serious, especially since he was president at the time, that even the most loyal Trump-appointed judge would find it hard to think of any reason why he should be granted immunity. Nevertheless, the ruminations by the Supreme Court today will be absolutely key to what happens in the US in the next seven months. If, as anticipated, the judges come back in June with a unanimous ruling that Trump cannot be given immunity from prosecution, then other trials, even the one about the 2020 election, could go ahead before the 2024 election, and, if so, that would be a devastating blow to Trump's chances of beating Joe Biden. If, somehow, there is a majority ruling in favour of Trump getting immunity, it would be a massive boost to his chances of returning to the White House. It's that simple.

Does China want to warm relations with the US?

Antony Blinken, US secretary of state, is in China in an attempt to improve relations between Washington and Beijing. But is Beijing interested? All the recent signs are that China wants to focus more of its diplomatic efforts in strengthening ties with the very countries that are at the top of Washington's adversary list: Russia, North Korea and Iran. China, too, is on the same potential adversary list, but Washington right now is more interested in persuading Chinese leaders to stop helping Russia in its war against Ukraine. China is not arming Russia as such but is sending weapon components and dual-use systems which are being used to modernise Russian arms factories. So, indirectly, China is supporting Russia in the more than two-year war. Beijing has said in the past that the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries, including Ukraine, should be respected. No doubt Blinken will throw this at the Chinese leaders he meets. But also no doubt, Beijing will deny helping Russia in its destruction of Ukraine and will underline its wish to see a peaceful settlement. When American and Chinese officials get together, there is a kind of ritual involved where each side has its say but there is very little room for a genuine change of heart or strategy. The ritual is better than silence but one wonders what Blinken will actually achieve during his visit. There are too many disagreements in the Washington and Beijing relationship.

Will voters still back Trump if he is a convicted felon?

We are still several weeks away before we find out whether the Republican nominee for the role of president of the United States will be a convicted felon but the huge question is there in front of us as each day of the trial of Donald Trump on 34 criminal charges passes. Trump looks angry, frustrated, bitter and lonely in court. This will multiply if he is found guilty of business fraud offences arising from his payout of $130,000 as legal expenses to keep porn star Stormy Daniels hush-hush about their alleged sexual encounter. If he is convicted Trump will still be able to continue as Republican nominee but it will be very very different both for him and for the Republican party as a whole. Trump will continue to claim that the trial was a political witch hunt. But if the seven men and five women on the jury all agree he is guilty, his claim of a witch hunt will have less weight. Independent voters who have yet to make up their mind between Trump and Joe Biden or any of the other minor candidates who could get the fed-up vote could well decide that a convicted felon as president is a mighty step too far. Some in the Republican party in the House and Senate might also begin to wonder whether it is wise to continue to back Trump as their leader. So the stakes are very high. A convicted Trump would also be a dangerous politician and a scary president-in-the-making, a man seeking revenge. Much will depend on whether any of the other trials he is facing take place before November. One conviction would hamper Trump's campaign for the presidency, two convictions would surely be near-fatal for his chances of winning back the White House, three convictions or four convictions would finish him off for good. But there is another scenario. What if he is acquitted of all 34 charges in this current trial? If that were to happen, then the mood in the country might well change dramatically. Trump would claim that his proven innocence in the first trial would be followed by acquittals in the other three trials and most of his supporters would probably agree. Biden would then have a much tougher challenge to fight him off. An acquittal would save Trump's campaign all the way to the November election. We will know the answer to all these unprecedented questions probably some time in early June or possibly late May.

What are US expectations for the war in Ukraine?

After all the sighs of relief in Washington over the successful passing of the Ukraine aid bill in the House of Representatives, what are now the US expectations for the way the war in Ukraine will progress? US officials will say that the objectives have not cbanged. These range from victory to Kyiv, helped by the weapons and money given them by the US-led coalition, or for the Ukrainian military to make significant gains for the Kyiv government to be in a strong position to achieve a good outcome in a negotiated settlement with Moscow. I seriously doubt either of these objectives are any longer realistic and Washington knows it. The Russian invasion troops have been expanding their occupation in the east and all that the new deliveries of weapons will do will be to help Ukraine defend its unoccupied territory and protect its towns and cities and power infrastructure from further destruction. So that means a long haul of hard-grind warfare with no end in sight. So far, Vladimir Putin has shown no qualms about losing men and armour. He just sends more of both. The only thing which might make a difference is if Ukraine multiplies by a huge amount its attacks on Russia itself and on Crimea. That would anger Putin more than anything and just might persuade him to consider an end-of-war settlement with Kyiv but only if the deal allows him to declare victory. In Putin's eyes, any such settlement would have to include formal handover of all territory won in the east and south, full acceptance that Crimea belongs to Russia and no Nato membership for Ukraine at any time in the future. None of these conditions would be acceptable to Kyiv. However, the only way forward for Ukraine for the time being is to use the new weapons now in the pipeline to target Russian bases across the border and in Crimea to at least make Putin think about a settlement. But even this scenario might not be enough to get Putin to move an inch from his stated objective which is to destroy Ukraine as a sovereign nation. The $61 billion aid package that has gone through the House and should be approved by the Senate will give Joe Biden a boost for his election chances but in reality in the battle zone in Ukraine it's unlikely to change the war in Kyiv's favour.

Will Mike Johnson's triumph save Ukraine from defeat?

Mike Johnson, Speaker of the House of Representatives, might lose his job but will his successful behind-the-scenes manouevrings and negotiations to get approval for Joe Biden's Ukraine aid bill save the Ukrainian people from a humbling defeat by the Russians? It should do. The Pentagon will now have the green light to send a mass of desperately-needed artillery shells, Patriot anti-air missiles and a whole host of other munitions and weapons to reverse the territorial gains made by the Russians in recent months. Mike Johnson will go down in Biden's books as the hero of the hour. Being a Republican and basically helping the Democratic president to get his crucial legislation through the Republican-controlled House was a feat requiring courage, selflessness, vision and downright obstinacy. He succeeded but the most conservative elements of the Republican party, including the scary Marjorie Taylor Greene, House representative from Georgia and devotee of Donald Trump, will be out to get him unseated as Speaker. But I suspect they will fail. Last night when the bill passed, allowing $61 billion to be allocated for Ukraine, was Johnson's night. Ukraine will now survive and Moscow will be seething. Putin was counting on Johnson failing, leaving Ukraine under-armed, under-funded and facing a grim defeat. Bill Burns, the CIA director, had warned that Ukraine faced defeat by the end of this year if the bill wasn't passed by Congress. Burns is one of the wisest voices in Washington, and the most trusted. So Republicans with any doubts about continuing to help Ukraine would have been persuaded by his arguments. So, huge relief for Biden and massive relief for Zelensky in Kyiv. And relief, too, for the whole Nato alliance.

Israel's damp-squib attack on Iran must have delighted Biden

Perhaps, at last, Binyamin Netanyahu actualy listened to Joe Biden. A major attack on a sensitive target in Iran, with loss of life and huge damage, would have undermined everything Biden has been trying to do - ie calm things down and return to getting the war in Gaza back to talking about the release of hostages and a six-week ceasefire. By most accounts, all Netanyahu did by way of retaliation for the 300 missiles and drones fired by Iran against Israel was to order a few drones to be launched against a military base near Isfahan and against Tehran's proxy force in Iraq. Very interesting that the drones fired on the base in Iran were launched from inside Iranian territory. Israeli special forces or some proxy anti-Tehran military unit? No one seems to know. But the result was that Tehran was able to dismiss the strikes as inconsequential and made it clear there would be no further retaliation. At least for now. This means that Netanyahu no longer has the distraction of dealing with Iran directly and, as promised by the Israeli leader, moves will start soon to assault Rafah, the southern Gaza town where the remaining Hamas leaders are hiding. Netanyahu will no doubt feel that he did what Biden had requested re hitting Iran gently and can now go ahead and ignore his entreaties to do dothing about Rafah. This already targeted town is likely to get the full works. The images of destroyed houses and apartments and injured children which had covered the front pages of newspapers and on television during the assaults on Gaza City and Khan Younis will be back big time. Then the brief honeymoon period between Netanyahu and Biden will be over.