Tuesday 23 April 2024

Will voters still back Trump if he is a convicted felon?

We are still several weeks away before we find out whether the Republican nominee for the role of president of the United States will be a convicted felon but the huge question is there in front of us as each day of the trial of Donald Trump on 34 criminal charges passes. Trump looks angry, frustrated, bitter and lonely in court. This will multiply if he is found guilty of business fraud offences arising from his payout of $130,000 as legal expenses to keep porn star Stormy Daniels hush-hush about their alleged sexual encounter. If he is convicted Trump will still be able to continue as Republican nominee but it will be very very different both for him and for the Republican party as a whole. Trump will continue to claim that the trial was a political witch hunt. But if the seven men and five women on the jury all agree he is guilty, his claim of a witch hunt will have less weight. Independent voters who have yet to make up their mind between Trump and Joe Biden or any of the other minor candidates who could get the fed-up vote could well decide that a convicted felon as president is a mighty step too far. Some in the Republican party in the House and Senate might also begin to wonder whether it is wise to continue to back Trump as their leader. So the stakes are very high. A convicted Trump would also be a dangerous politician and a scary president-in-the-making, a man seeking revenge. Much will depend on whether any of the other trials he is facing take place before November. One conviction would hamper Trump's campaign for the presidency, two convictions would surely be near-fatal for his chances of winning back the White House, three convictions or four convictions would finish him off for good. But there is another scenario. What if he is acquitted of all 34 charges in this current trial? If that were to happen, then the mood in the country might well change dramatically. Trump would claim that his proven innocence in the first trial would be followed by acquittals in the other three trials and most of his supporters would probably agree. Biden would then have a much tougher challenge to fight him off. An acquittal would save Trump's campaign all the way to the November election. We will know the answer to all these unprecedented questions probably some time in early June or possibly late May.

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