Monday, 22 April 2024

What are US expectations for the war in Ukraine?

After all the sighs of relief in Washington over the successful passing of the Ukraine aid bill in the House of Representatives, what are now the US expectations for the way the war in Ukraine will progress? US officials will say that the objectives have not cbanged. These range from victory to Kyiv, helped by the weapons and money given them by the US-led coalition, or for the Ukrainian military to make significant gains for the Kyiv government to be in a strong position to achieve a good outcome in a negotiated settlement with Moscow. I seriously doubt either of these objectives are any longer realistic and Washington knows it. The Russian invasion troops have been expanding their occupation in the east and all that the new deliveries of weapons will do will be to help Ukraine defend its unoccupied territory and protect its towns and cities and power infrastructure from further destruction. So that means a long haul of hard-grind warfare with no end in sight. So far, Vladimir Putin has shown no qualms about losing men and armour. He just sends more of both. The only thing which might make a difference is if Ukraine multiplies by a huge amount its attacks on Russia itself and on Crimea. That would anger Putin more than anything and just might persuade him to consider an end-of-war settlement with Kyiv but only if the deal allows him to declare victory. In Putin's eyes, any such settlement would have to include formal handover of all territory won in the east and south, full acceptance that Crimea belongs to Russia and no Nato membership for Ukraine at any time in the future. None of these conditions would be acceptable to Kyiv. However, the only way forward for Ukraine for the time being is to use the new weapons now in the pipeline to target Russian bases across the border and in Crimea to at least make Putin think about a settlement. But even this scenario might not be enough to get Putin to move an inch from his stated objective which is to destroy Ukraine as a sovereign nation. The $61 billion aid package that has gone through the House and should be approved by the Senate will give Joe Biden a boost for his election chances but in reality in the battle zone in Ukraine it's unlikely to change the war in Kyiv's favour.

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