Thursday 25 April 2024

Trump immune from prosecution or (definitely) not?

The wisest judges in the US of A will start considering today all the arguments over whether Donald Trump should enjoy immunity from prosecution. Looking at all the claimed precedents in US legal history where immunity has been discussed, it is truly difficult to see how the federal Supreme Court could conclude anything other than downright rejection of the Trump lawyers' case. But the Supreme Court is a wonderful body of men and women, all appointed by presidential choice, who may have dfferent ideas about the constitution and the role of the president. But basically Trump has been charged with interfering in the US 2020 election and trying to subvert the result, a charge so serious, especially since he was president at the time, that even the most loyal Trump-appointed judge would find it hard to think of any reason why he should be granted immunity. Nevertheless, the ruminations by the Supreme Court today will be absolutely key to what happens in the US in the next seven months. If, as anticipated, the judges come back in June with a unanimous ruling that Trump cannot be given immunity from prosecution, then other trials, even the one about the 2020 election, could go ahead before the 2024 election, and, if so, that would be a devastating blow to Trump's chances of beating Joe Biden. If, somehow, there is a majority ruling in favour of Trump getting immunity, it would be a massive boost to his chances of returning to the White House. It's that simple.

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