Tuesday 30 April 2024

How will Israel control Hamas if there is a ceasefire?

Not for the frst time there is optimism in senior US diplomatic circles about a potential ceasefire in Gaza. It has been said before and then nothing happened. But this time, because of what is being described as "a very generous" offer by Israel on the number of hostages to be released, there is more hope. But what if there is an agreed ceaaefire of, say, 40 days? What will happen at the end of that time? Israel has pretty well made it clear it will be back to normal and attacks to eliminate Hamas will restart. But also during those 40 days, Israel is going to come under huge pressure from around the world, and particularly from the US, to extend the ceasefire and then make it permanent. In other words, Israel will be pressurised to give up its main objective which is to remove Hamas from the planet. If I was Hamas I'd go for the deal being offered in the expectation that President Biden will do everything he can to stop the Israelis from carrying on the war once the ceasefire is over. But Binyamin Netanyahu is never going to agree to this, and Hamas must know that. However, its leaders down underground in southern Gaza might just gamble that now is the right time to do a deal. This will put Netanyahu in a spot. He has offered the "generous" deal - only 33 hostages to be freed at this stage - and can hardly turn down Hamas if its leaders come back and say ok. He will no doubt look at the small print and if Hamas conditions acceptance to a much longer or perpetual ceasefire, then he will have no choice but to reject the whole deal. But if he does, the hostage families will denounce him and his government. Netanyahu wants to survive as prime minister, so he will have to come up with a pretty convincing argument for reneging on the deal he has offered.

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