Monday 16 September 2019

Iran grabs its moment after John Bolton sacking

If it's proven that Iran was behind the multiple armed drone attacks on two Saudi Arabian oil facilities it represents one of the most outrageous acts ever committed by this current or any previous Tehran regime. What on earth do they think they're doing? It's such a blatant signal to Washington that it almost makes you think they want to be attacked by the US military. I think the most malevolent members of the regime, not a million miles aways from the Republican Guards Corps, decided that after Trump's sacking of John Bolton, his national security adviser and the biggest anti-Iran hawk in his cabinet, now was the time to be bold and strike out just to see what Trump minus Bolton would do. Because you can be sure Bolton would have urged Trump to strike back with a huge onslaught on Iranian targets. But with only an acting national security adviser probably taking a more cautious line, perhaps Trump would be less bellicose and look for a way out. In which case, huge victory for Tehran and a blow to Trump's reputation as a tough warrior president. The fact that Iran is vociferously denying involvement in the drone attacks is all part of the game, to try and confuse Trump's decision-making. The satellite images are pretty clear. The drones came from one direction - north of Saudia Arabia, either Iraq or Iran, not south of Saudia Arabia from Yemen, despite the claims of responsibility by the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels. Drones lanched from Yemen would have a long way to go to reach their targets, whereas from Iraq or Iran it would be more practical. So no one believes Iran when it claims innocence. What makes the attack so outrageous is that Trump has been offering to talk to President Hassan Rouhani and there were hints that some sort of meeting might be possible with the Iranian leader at the UN General Assembly. Assuming Rouhani did not order the drone strikes (?!), then the head honchos of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps probably dreamt up the drone strikes to make sure the Tehran president stopped thinking about ever meeting with Trump. This was a massive spoiler operation. Trump now has to face the fact that if he backs down, as he did after Iran shot down an American Global Hawk drone over the Gulf in June, and puts off any military retaliation, the Revolutionary Guard Corps will triumph. This is a dangerous week for the US president.

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