Saturday 28 September 2019

I have no confidence in a no-confidence vote

So the opposition political parties are now planning a no-confidence vote in the Boris Johnson government next week. Boris no longer has a majority of any kind and in fact if the 21 Tory MPs who were effectively expelled from the Conservative party for failing to support Boris, vote with the opposition, Boris will lose. He may refuse to go but that's another issue. The main thing is that whether Boris walks off into the sunset or not, does ANYONE in the House of Commons have a clue about what to do about Brexit? The answer is no!!! All that most MPs say is that they don't want a no-deal Brexit and they don't want to leave the EU on October 31 unless there IS a deal. But despite the claim today that the Boris government is going to table some strong concrete proposals to the EU on Monday, I simply do not believe that a new deal, any deal in fact, is going to be approved by parliament. Not just because the deal is bound to contain some of the same old problems - Northern Ireland, customs union etc - but because any deal will mean that the UK will be out of the EU but still subject to its regulations without any say in the matter now or in the future. In other words, no seat at the table, no decision-making powers, just obedient servants to whatever the other 27 EU leaders decide. I have predicted before that Boris WILL get a last-minute deal, and parliament, so exhausted by anger and violent language and despair, will just vote for it to make absolutely sure that Boris doesn't revert to his no-deal exit on October 31. That still might be what happens but I'm beginning to worry that compromise in this current House of Commons is impossible. Now it's all about ousting Boris and putting a caretaker prime minister into Number 10 Downing Street to hold the reigns until there's a general election, and asking the EU to extend the October 31 deadline to January. They can't do either of these things if Boris gets a deal and presents it triumphantly to parliament. Parliament will turn its back on Boris. For the Liberal Democrats and the Remainers in the Conservative and Labour parties, if there's the slightest chance that the UK can stay in the EU - revoking Article 50 - then they have to fight to get rid of Boris who will never support Remain, block no-deal AND prevent Jeremy Corbyn from becoming caretaker prime minister. It's a big challenge for them but not impossible. If they approve a Boris/EU deal, the UK will never be able to stay in the EU. Their dream of overturning the 2016 referendum result will be over for ever. So the no-confidence vote next week, if it happens, is going to be an Apocalyptic Moment for everyone. If Boris wins he will stick rigidly to the October 31 deadline. This is what government adverts on radio are saying every day to businesses: "Prepare to leave the EU on October 31". If Boris loses and shuts himself away in Number 10, refusing to come out, no one and I mean no one will know what to do.

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