Tuesday 10 September 2019

Boris is now on his own

Parliament in the UK is suspended until October 14. Brexit deadline is October 31. There is no deal in sight. Boris Johnson is now truly on his own. He can't call an election until after October 31, by order of the House of Commons, and he can't opt for a no-deal Brexit, also under orders from parliament. His only way out, his very last hope of surviving as prime minister is to somehow get a deal agreed with the EU and approved by parliament. But there are two things going against that unlikely possibility. First there isn't time before October 17, the start of the European Council summit meeting, to renegotiate the withdrawal agreement which took three years to complete under Theresa May, and even if by some miracle Boris did manage to get some vital concessions to please the House of Commons, it's almost bound to be vigorously opposed by the so-called European Research Group, the quaintly named Conservative extreme Brexiteer lot and the Democratic Unionist Party in Northern Ireland. This is because it would have to have some version of the Irish border backstop, meaning the province of Ulster would have to remain in the EU single market. The DUP will never agree to that. There's a third obstacle. If Boris persuades the EU to offer concessions, there is no guarantee that Labour will support it in the House of Commons. Jeremy Corbyn is being pushed by the Labour hierarchy to campaign in a future general election to remain in the EU and, if he agrees, he won't want to spoil such a strategy by getting Labour MPs to vote in favour of a Boris deal. Of course if Labour campaigns to remain in the EU, Corbyn and co will come up against 17 million voters who voted to leave the EU in the 2016 referendum. None of them will vote for Labour but will stick with the Conservatives or turn to the Nigel Farage Brexit Party. In this sense Brexit is a total nightmare politically for both Boris AND Corbyn. It's going to be people versus politicians whichever side of the debate you stand. This is hugely harmful for our country and for our democracy. The Queen is currently at Balmoral in Scotland, her favourite home, and must be wondering whether her nation and her subjects are all doomed to an uncertain and potentially dangerous future. And there is nothing she can do about it.

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