Monday 9 September 2019

Trump's grand foreign policy gestures are not working

Personally I have always been in favour of Donald Trump's wild instinctive gestures aimed at America's most implacable foes. Provided there is a reasonable chance of success. Enemies or potential enemies have to be talked to at some point, and not shouted at or invaded. But I wonder whether, as he is contemplating holding out his hand of friendship to the enemy he ponders for a moment what every military commander learns to do before engaging in combat: what's in the mind of the opposition, how will the enemy commanders on the other side of the border respond? In other words, you have to think like your enemy, get inside his head and try and anticipate his every move. It's not that difficult to get inside the mind of the average Taliban commander because we know what they want, we know they are fighters for life and will never give up unless they get what they want. They are about as implacable an enemy as you could find. The only difference between the Taliban and, say, a terrorist organisation such as al-Qaeda, is that the Taliban have political ambitions. They ruled Afghanistan before the US and the Northern Alliance toppled them from power in 2001. It's because of this that it's not implausible for the US to attempt to come to a peace settlement. You can't and never should negotiate anything with al-Qaeda. They don't have a political agenda. They just have an ideological hate agenda. There's nothing to negotiate because they have nothing to offer. The Taliban, like I suppose the Provisional IRA, have a political mission which they are determined to fulfil through violence and intimidation and murder. The IRA did the same, until, after 30 years, they got tired and agreed to secret talks with the British government which finally ended in the Good Friday Agreement. Trump's gesture to the Taliban - come and see me at Camp David and sign a peace deal - was pure Donald. Bring the war to an end with a spectacular face-to-face with the men who have waged war against US and coalition and Aghan troops for more than 18 years. There is no doubt this idea appealed to Trump, although there must have been State Department and Pentagon advisers who thought it was crazy and risky and probably doomed to failure. These are hardened tough warriors who have absolutely no interest in turning their country into a McDonald's franchise. This is where the coalition as a whole got it wrong with the Taliban. When the nation-building part of the operation got underway, a lot of people benefited, especially Afghan women and kids. But it never impressed the Taliban. They didn't want women in politics and teaching in schools. Their view of life is still in the Middle Ages. If they had had even a microgram of common sense they would have secretly ordered a halt to all suicide bombing until the Camp David meeting had been completed. But that is simply not the way an organisation like the Taliban thinks. They think violence is the only way to achieve results. They wanted to hear Trump plead with them not to kill any more American soldiers. So perhaps the whole grand gesture thing was doomed from the start. It's the same with Trump's offer to talk to President Rouhani of Iran. Trump would have said to his advisers, "Look I can talk to Kim Jong-un and he likes me, so why not Rouhani, man to man." But America stands for everything Rouhani hates the most and he must personally loathe Trump for helping to destroy Iran's economy. Instead of talking to Trump he is going, bit by bit, to renege totally on the infamous 2015 nuclear deal and build himself a nuclear bomb or two. He may wait until Trump is out of office but he will wait for his moment. Just like the Taliban do. They wait and wait and wait and keep on killing. That's what they do. Did Trump really thnk he could schmooze the Taliban. The Taliban are not for schmoozing!

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