Thursday 5 September 2019

How will people vote if there's a snap UK election?

I wouldn't like to be Boris Johnson's poll adviser. The prime minster is determined to continue pushing for a snap general election despite the setback in parliament last night when MPS voted against the idea until the no-deal Brexit legislation has been passed and given the Royal Assent. Whatever happens in the next few days there WILL be an election soon. There is no other way. But can Boris feel confident he will win the election AND get a sizeable majority - big enough to govern? Predicting the result of a general election is always a mug's game. So-called pollster experts frequently get it wrong. But this time, who can say what people will decide when they go into the voting booth. I would suggest that a majority of people in the UK are now heartily sick of the whole Brexit saga, they are universally angry about the way parliament is behaving, disillusioned about politics in general and uncertain about this country's future. Who amongst the party leaders is going to solve all the problems and lead Britain into a bright future? Being a traditional Conservative or Labour or Liberal Democrat voter - ie voting for party whatever - no longer holds. I suspect there will be more tactical voting than ever before. The Lib Dems will get a huge boost, partly because there is a new leader, Jo Swinson, and she looks nice and sounds good, and mostly because they want to UK to stay in the EU. But people who like Jo Swinson but hate the EU and want to leave will not vote for them in the current Brexit climate. Those who voted to remain in the EU referendum in 2016 will stick to the Lib Dems like glue. But for those who voted leave, where will they turn? They probably don't trust either Boris or Jeremy Corbyn, the Labour leader, so they might just say to themselves: "To hell with the lot of them, I'll vote for Nigel Farage and the Brexit Party." It could happen. Farage has got candidates for all the constituencies and I bet he does well. But if Farage grabs a pile of seats, who will suffer most as a result? Surely Jeremy Corbyn and Labour. Their position on Brexit has been so muddled no voters will know for sure what Corbyn really wants. And too many people are scared of having Corbyn as prime minister. So, here is my prediction: the Lib Dems will increase their seats from the current 16 to around 45, the Brexit party will win 28 seats, the Scottish Nationalists will increase their numbers from 35 to 50. Labour will do surprisingly badly, losing 10-20 seats. Conservatives will get a small boost, perhaps winning another 3-5 seats. In the end, with the other parties, such as Democratic Unionists, Sinn Fein and the Independents staing about the same, Boris will have to go for a Devil's deal with Nigel Farage to get Brexit sorted once and for all. So, a huge gamble for Boris. If the no-deal Brexit legislation is given the Royal Asset BEFORE the election, Boris's options will be limited. Theresa May's withdrawal agreement will come back into its own, and this time parliament will approve. It will not be a victory for Boris and it could spell the end of his premiership one way or the other.

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