The Trump Doctrine is no wars please

Now that Donald Trump has announced yet more sanctions against Iran, this time against its central bank, as opposed to launching military strikes against the base from where the armed drones and cruise missles aimed at Saudia Arabia are supposed to have come in southwestern Iran, we have finally grasped what Trump's doctrine is. The Trump Doctrine is no wars please. He wants the US to be tough and strong and all-powerful, deterring every potential hostile nation from doing anything malign just by deploying an aircraft carrier strike group close to their coastline. What he doesn't want to do is actually order the fighter jets onboard the carrier to launch missiles at enemy targets. Power projection by sheer presence rather than by sheer firepower. For a superpower, and there is still only one on the planet, this is a pretty odd doctrine. America's potential enemies, paticularly Iran right now, must get confused. They expect the US bombers to arrive but there is no sign of them. In fact by now Tehran must be pretty confident that they have got wise to Trump. He's harsh on the rhetoric but keeps the generals and admirals tucked away with their hands tied behind their backs. The fact that Iran felt confident enough to warn that any attempt by the US to mount military action against Iranian targets would lead to all-out war tells you quite a lot about the psychology going on between the US president and the Tehran leaders. They don't think Trump will ever attack them. All he will do is impose more and more sanctions. So they will take risks, they will not be cowed, they will put two fingers up to Trump and go on as before. Tehran thinks it's winning the psychological war. And they're probably right. But I doubt Trump will worry about that. He wants to be reelected in 2020 and he is not going to do anything that will spoil his chances. He told his political popular base that he didn't want the US engaging in any more wars, especially in the Middle East, so almost whatever Iran does next he is going to avoid pressing the military button. Of course avoiding more wars in the Middle East is a good policy. But there are dangers too. If Trump backs down every time, allowing Iran to shoot down America's most expensive drone, the Global Hawk, doing nothing of any real consequence when they send a flurry of armed drones and cruise missiles to hit Saudi oil installations, then the risk is every nasty leader in the world will think Trump is weak and afraid of military action, and they will seek to turn this knowledge to their advantage. The Trump Doctrine of no wars is fine but it strengthens the hand of those who want to disperse evil and hatred and death.