Thursday, 31 January 2019
Trump is looking for a BIG success on foreign policy
Trump must be getting desperate. He needs a BIG success overseas to shore up his power base which at home is being daily chipped away by Nancy Pelosi and her majority Democrats in the House of Representatives. Trump needs China or Syria or Afghanistan or North Korea to give him a triumph that will propel him towards reelection in 2020. I stick to my prediction that Trump will be a one-term president because there are so many things that could go wrong for him between now and 2020. The Mexico wall is clearly not going to happen unless he declares a state of emergency because Pelosi has once again said there will be no money for his wall. She is content for extra fencing where required, perhaps even a more solid barrier here and there but not a full-length Trump wall. So, the president who by the way MAY still declare a national emergency to get his wall built, is looking elsewhere for his headline-making breakthrough triumph. He is hinting that the negotiations on trade with China are going well and he and President Xi Zinping, his "friend", will meet to sort out all the really tough bits. But if that fails, where else can he turn to get his victory? Not Syria, his policy is going to produce no triumphs for the US. If all the US troops are withdrawn, and the pull-out has already begun, Russia and Turkey and Iran will benefit. Iran is a mess. Trump claims his intelligence chiefs know nothing and need to be reschooled in the art of spying. He believes Iran is still intent on having a nuclear weapon and are secretly getting on with it. The CIA and others say the opposite. How long will Gina Haspel, CIA director appointed by Trump, last I wonder! Iraq is never going to be a success story for Trump because Iran is in the lead on that one, so where else is there? The answer is Venezuela. I think Trump has deep deep plans to get Nicolas Maduro OUT. Because if the US succeeds in getting rid of the ghastly Maduro, everyone, except Russia and China, will be pleased. Whether it will be done by military intervention or massive new sanctions or covert CIA action Trump has yet to decide. Trump has initially gone for sanctions against the oil industry which could bring Maduro to his knees. But Moscow will help out. So that's when Trump might turn to something more covert. He must be itching to send in the Marines, to hell with his friend Putin. I don't think there will be a full-scale military intervention but I reckon Trump will turn to his intelligence people - yes the same ones he has just been maligning - and tell them it's time for some clandestine activity.
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