My predictions for 2019

Predictions are a fool's game. But it's January 1 2019, so here goes: 1. The United States: Robert Mueller, special counsel for the investigation of alleged collusion between the Trump campaign and Moscow, will find that members of the president's family, notably Donald Trump Jr, were naively drawn into a Russian web because of the offer of political dirt on Hillary Clinton, but none were guilty of a prima facie criminal offence. Mueller will say the whole episode tainted the US presidential election system and reputation but there is no evidence of deliberate collusion. The evidence of Michael Cohen, Trump's former personal lawyer, however, will lead to demands from the Democratic Party for the president to face a charge of knowingly suppressing material that could have affected voters' support for him - ie the payments made to two women to keep them silent about their alleged affairs with Trump. The Democrats, in control of the House of Representatives, will get nowhere with this demand but will later turn to Trump's non-payment of taxes and his business dealings in Russia to mount a full impeachment inquiry. Trump will never get the money he wants to build a wall along the Mexico border. Instead he will order his new defence secretary to get the Corps of Engineers to extend the existing fencing by hundreds of miles, funding the work through a combination of budget allocations from the defence department and department of homeland security. Trump then starts a huge effort with Congress to spend billions of dollars on ageing infrastructure. The economy improves, falters and then improves steadily, ending the year in fine fettle. 2. Russia. Putin makes a move on Ukraine by permanently blocking all Ukrainian ships in the Sea of Azov and then mounts a blockade of the vital Ukrainian port of Mariupol, bringing Ukraine to its knees. The move persuades Trump to send warships to the Black Sea, leading to a potentially dangerous escalation. Putin backs down after a summit with Trump. 3. China comes up with what seems like a face-saving end to the trade war with the US. Trump seizes on it as a victory for his leadership, but the small print shows the Chinese still have the advantage. 4. Britain: March 29 comes and goes without any real change to the Brexit drama. Theresa May's compromise Brexit deal, with some additions designed to reassure doubters about the so-called Northern Ireland back-stop arrangement, passes through parliament by such a tiny majority that divisions between the Remainers and Leavers stays as volatile as ever. The whole process is put into suspension as MPs consider a possible second referendum. The UK economy goes into a wild spin downwards. But there are no riots in the streets. The government survives, just. 5. Europe: Macron retreats further and further into gloomy despondency as far right and far left extremists mount devastating protests across the country. Merkel tries to launch a new way forward for the EU, and for Germany, but is pushed back by right-wing leaders in Poland, Hungary and Italy. The EU looks shakier than ever. 6. The Middle East: Assad assumes control of the whole of Syria. The final bastion of Isis fighters in the northeast is destroyed by the Turkish army and Iraqi air force. The US plays no further meaningful role.