Wednesday 2 January 2019

Can the world survive another two years of Trump?

Never mind Brexit and the creepy Jean-Claude Juncker and fuel prices and tax demands and the thought of Jeremy Corbyn becoming Britain's prime minister, the only real question is this: can the world survive another two years of Donald Trump? Not to mention another four years after that? Except for spear-carrying tribes in the deepest parts of the jungle, male drinkers in Alice Springs and pony lovers in the Outer Hebrides, pretty well everyone else in this world have been affected one way or another by the Trump presidency. It's almost impossible to escape him. So much depends on his leadership or lack of it that the United States of America, supposedly the guardian of western security and its values that we are all in a sort of collective nervous breakdown, unsure of what might happen from day to day. You invest whatever money you might have acquired wisely and sensibly but it seems to make no difference. Trump's volatility and gamesmanship and impulsiveness have reduced the stock market around the world to a state of paranoia. Up go the shares one day and then down down down the next. £50,000 invested one month is worth £40,000 a year later. There is no longer such a thing as a safe investment because Trump's actions can undermine confidence like nothing else. Has Trump and all his investments suffered too? I don't think so! The filthy rich are getting filthier richer. So what are the prospects for the planet over the next two Trump years? Before the president accuses me of being a fake news provider, let me be the first to say that he has achieved quite a lot in his first two years. The US economy has survived despite everything and is doing reasonably well although the country's federal deficit could shoot up to $1 trillion this year. Jobs are still booming - although not in the steel industry despite Trump's claims to the contrary. The electric car business is expanding in leaps and bounds which will have a positive impact on pollution, and Trump's $1 trillion tax cuts for the better-off should increasingly benefit the rest of the country, with more employment and job potential. The charm offensive with Kim Jong-un is still paying dividends although a false move by the president, like insulting the North Korean leader or telling him sanctions will never be lifted until every nuclear weapon has been destroyed (carrot and stick, Mr President, carrot and stick), could change all that. Trump's apparent chemistry with Xi Zinping is also a Good Thing and could lead to a genuine trade deal to benefit everyone. So, plenty of positives. But after two years, Trump has not changed one iota with his bull-in-a-china-shop approach and as a result has upset nearly all of America's allies and most of his own cabinet. The Jim Mattis book, if it is ever written, will be one to watch out for. Publishers must be clamouring for the resigned defence secretary's memoirs. The White House and Congress are in a constant state of chaotic anger, frustration and duplicity. How can proper grown-up government be sustained under these conditions? So I ask again, can the US and the rest of us survive another two years of this terrible uncertainty and unpredictability?

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