Thursday 24 January 2019

Donald Trump and Mike Pompeo are playing a dangerous game

The US president and his secretary of state have decided to play a high-risk game of challenge directed at Nicolas Maduro, the president of Venezuela. Refusing to recognise him as the legitimate leader of Venezuela they have, therefore, ignored his demand that all American diplomats leave the country within 72 hours, after breaking off relations with the US. The diplomatic staff at the embassy in Caracas have been told to stay put and carry on as if Maduro doesn't exist. Trump and Pompeo are only dealing diplomatically with Juan Guiado, the president of the National Assembly and self-styled legitimate interim leader of Venezuela. In some ways it's strange that Trump has recognised Guiada as the only official leader he will talk to. It's a bit like if Maduro announced to the world that he no longer recognised Trump as president of the United States and would only handle bilateral state matters with Nancy Pelosi. Well, obviously the circumstances are totally different but I'm not sure how legal it is under international law for countries to recognise a leader who hasn't actually been voted The Leader, unless there is proof that in the recent presidential election in Venezuela which gave Maduro another six years the real winner by a margin was Juan Guaido. But the election was rigged, so it would be very difficult to prove one way or the other. Be that as it may, the fact is that the US and Canada and half a dozen countries in South America now recognise Guaido as the interim leader. So Pompeo has said that the US diplomats can stay in Venezuela because Guaido says they can. Well, as a symbolic snub to Maduro that's all well and fine. But Guaido does not head the Venezuelan armed forces and has no way of ensuring the safety and protection of the US embassy in Caracas. So the embassy staff are being used as part of the game of dare between Trump and Maduro. There are potential dangers here. It can never be forgotten what happened to the US diplomatic staff at the American consulate in Benghazi in Libya on September 11, 2012. Insufficiently protected by local guards, the visiting ambassador from Tripoli, Christopher Stevens, and three other Americans were killed when the consulate was attacked by extremist jihadist militia. It was a scandal and tragedy of the highest order which caused a huge political outcry against President Obama and Hilary Clinton, his secretary of state. Caracas is a different scenario. But in the atmosphere of violence and repression that's going on in Caracas and elsewhere in the country, there can be no absolute guarantees that the US diplomats stuck in the middle of this dangerous political game will not be targeted. Mind you, if any of them were to be hurt or captured, I imagine Trump will order in the Marines. Maduro probably knows this.

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