Wednesday, 30 January 2019

Theresa May will get a bloody nose in Brussels and Berlin

You get the feeling that the 27 nations of the European Union are sick to death of the UK and Theresa May and the whole of the House of Commons. It's hardly surprising. The EU thought they had got a deal, it was approved and signed by Prime Minister May, then agreed by her cabinet. All neatly wrapped up and done. Then the whole thing was thrown up into the air, the Conservative Party split into battle factions, each as obstinate as the other, Labour didn't know what the hell it wanted, the Northern Ireland Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) just stuck out their formidable chins and said no whenever asked any question about Brexit and the dreaded backstop to avoid a hard border between north and south, and Theresa May sailed through with her Brexit boat pointing in exactly the same direction whatever the windy conditions. Now who knows what's going to happen. Theresa bless her sort of won most of the arguments in the House of Commons last night, shaking off the threat of different amendments to her Brexit deal which would have taken control out of her hands. But in reality nothing really changed. We still have her Brexit deal or no deal or no Brexit. The only difference is that one amendment stipulated that the word "backstop" be replaced by "other arrangements" - which was passed - giving Theresa a mandate, or so she claimed, to go back to Brussels and say, "Now I have the Commons backing me, you must change your ways and get rid of the Northern Ireland backstop idea and find another way of keeping the border open between north and south without your backstop insurance policy which the DUP hates". But the EU leaders and negotiators have already said they will NOT change the backstop. In fact they won't change anything. All they might do is ADD a few words to appease anyone who thinks the EU plot is to ensure that whatever happens in the future, there will be no border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland - ie the North will be like a member of the EU inside the EU customs union and thus be different from any other part of the UK after we have left the European Union. And the DUP doesn't want to be different. This isn't a plot, this the reality. I do not see what formula of words can be found that will resolve this issue and be legally binding. The EU bureaucrats tried before and failed. Also the UK government still talks about a technological solution to border checks but there isn't one apparently. Everyone has looked into it and according to the deputy EU negotiator, Sabine Weyand, no such thing exists on any border in the whole wide world. In this era of artificial intelligence, landings on Mars and weapons that can travel at 15 times the speed of sound, no clever dick has managed to come up with a device that technologically checks stuff going across a border without anyone knowing about it!! Unbelievable. Theresa May presumably knows this, so why does she go on and on about it as if somewhere in a small high-tech shop in Outer Mongolia, such a piece of kit is just waiting to be found. So, Theresa will head off yet again to meet with the stony-faced EU chiefs who will say, "Hello, Theresa, nice to see you, but please go home, we have nothing to talk about". It's 27 against 1. Of course the EU will win. However, the only other amendment which was approved yesterday by the Commons was one that said a no-deal Brexit was out of the question. Everyone, or most people, seem to agree with this, but the amendment is not binding on the government. So it's still on the table if the EU refuses to change or add to the Brexit deal text. The EU lot are being brutal. Yet none of them want a no-deal Brexit because it would be almost as disastrous for the whole of the EU as it would be for the UK. So, Mr Bureacrats, get your finger out, stop being so stubborn and give a little. For God's sake let's have a deal. Time is running out.

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