May Brexit or no Brexit, Leave or Remain, Survival or Disaster?

It is impossible to overestimate the potential disasters, economic, social and political, that await the United Kingdom tomorrow. There are so many plots and counter-plots going on inside and outside the Houses of Parliament that reading about them all in the newspapers and hearing them on television and on the radio is like entering a dark world in which everyone is conspiring against each other. No one can be believed. No one can be trusted. Everyone in the politics business is scheming. There are plotting cabals all over the place. If Theresa May astonishes everyone and actually wins her vote on her Brexit deal which must have odds of about 150-1, the country will still be as divided as ever but there will be an agreed legal framework passed by Parliament, and the UK will leave the EU on March 29 based on the 580-page negotiated fix achieved by the prime minister. If she loses by a considerable margin which must be odds of, say, 6-4, then all the plotters and conspirators will leap in to fill the gap. There will be a mad rush of MPs of all varieties attempting to put their spin on the result and to put forward their answer to the problem. There are so many twists and turns and different alternatives to the May vision that the ordinary voters worried about their future, their savings, their children and their survival that it will just not be possible to explain to any of them what will be best for them. After two years of the Brexit negotiations and all the claims and counter-claims none of us have a clue what it's about anymore. Back-stop, Norway plus, Canada plus plus, World Trade not EU Trade, customs union, single market, free movement of labour, all the well-worn words and phrases are now just a kaleidoscope of meaningful but meaningless jargon. On top of all that there is the small matter of Theresa May's future. Does she survive or resign? Does the Conservative government survive or fall? Does Jeremy Corbyn get the general election which is all he wants? Do we get a second referendum to muddy the waters even further etc etc? Tomorrow when MPs vote for or against the May Brexit deal is truly going to be a momentous day in the UK's history. My prediction? Mrs May will fail to get enough votes but she will refuse to step down. Jeremy Corbyn will lose the vote of no confidence in the government. So there will be no general election. There will be no second referendum on the EU. The EU, shocked by the result, will step in to prevent a no-deal exit and will offer more talks, with an extension to the March 29 cut-off deadline, and a suggestion that the way forward is Norway plus plus, in other words, an associated membership status for the UK in which this country will benefit from the EU customs union and the single market but have only an honorary but not voting arrangement for all EU decision-making that affects the UK. An extension to the March 29 exit will be agreed by the UK Parliament and the negotiations will begin all over again. No one will be happy, many will be outraged, there will be a move to force May to step down as leader. But she will survive against all the odds. Voila!