A draft peace framework with the Taliban but huge obstacles remain

Before Trump and co start celebrating with the news that the US and the Taliban have agreed a framework peace formula there remains a grave danger that it will still all go wrong. And what if there is a long-term deal? What will it mean for the people of Afghanistan, especially women who have nightmare memories of life under the Taliban when the militants were in power in Kabul? How many concessions will have to be made with the black-turbaned insurgents and can they ever be trusted? Under the framework agreement the Taliban have already won their first big concession from the Americans. The US will agree to a timetable to withdraw all troops, in return for the Taliban promising never again to give sanctuary to al-Qaeda or other terrorist groups. This is more important to the US than anything else. The presence of al-Qaeda's leader, Osama bin Laden, and hundreds of fighters living and training in Afghanistan under the protection of the Taliban was the reason for the US-led invasion in 2001, post the 9/11 terrorist attacks in America. But al-Qaeda still exists to this day in Afghanistan, albeit in much smaller numbers. And then there is the relatively new presence of Isis militants also in the country. Who will be responsible for eliminating them if the US withdraws all troops? The Taliban? They have clashed with Isis in northern Afghanistan but will they take over the role from the US of ensuring Isis is prevented from plotting bomb attacks in the West from their refuges in Afghanistan? I think not. The Pentagon would argue that even if the majority of US troops are withdrawn - currently about 14,000 - a force of counter-terrorist special operations units would have to stay to keep monitoring and attacking Isis and al-Qaeda elements. But the Taliban will never allow this, not if they agree to a peace deal that stops the war in Afghanistan after 17 years. They have always made clear they want ALL foreign troops out of Afghanistan. Still, the announcement of a framework peace deal - a long way from being a final settlement - is encouraging and may at last be a sign that the Taliban are as fed up with the war as the Americans and other coalition partners are. The Taliban's new chief negotiator is Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar who is a legendary figure in the insurgency. He is one of the founding members of the Taliban and was a trusted associate of the late Mullah Mohammed Omar, the original leader of the Taliban when it was set up in 1994. He is also a veteran fighter and commander and is respected throughout the insurgency movement. His appointment as chief negotiator for the talks with the Americans is another encouraging sign. The US team is headed by Zalmay Khalilzad, an Afghan-born American diplomat who was appointed as Trump's special adviser on reconciliation in Afghanistan. Khalilzad has decades of experience in dealing with the world's toughest problems, notably in Iraq and Afghanistan, and he and Mullah Baradar can sort out a deal if anyone can. But the future talks are still fraught with dangers. The two biggest stumbling blocks are that the Taliban refuse to consider a ceasefire until all US troops have left and will not talk to the Afghan government because they regard the Kabul administration as a puppet organisation of the Americans. The US negotiators cannot give ground on either of these Taliban demands. The Taliban will have to deal with President Ashraf Ghani, the Afghan president, and they will have to stop the killings and bombings and shootings and intimidation BEFORE the last US soldier has left. So it's very early days. But at least there is a sense of optimism following six days of talks between Khalilzad and the Taliban in Doha, capital of Qatar.