Donald Trump is not going to be reelected

Donald Trump is going to have to face up to the possibility that he will fail to win reelection in 2020. It's looking more and more likely that a revolt within the Republican Party as well as the change in fortune for the Democratic Party following the success of Nancy Pelosi in defeating the president in the shutdown drama, will mean the end of the Trump administration in 2020, not the beginning of another four years. Who would have thought it only a few months ago when Trump seemed to be enjoying good economic news and potential foreign policy successes. Now, the Syria story has gone crazy with his decision to pull out US troops, Afghanistan is still awash with Taliban massacres of Afghan troops (peace? What peace?), the 35-day government shutdown has ended very badly for him, a lot of people, supporters included, are turning against him, and the Russian collusion investigation is getting more and more serious and closer and closer to the president himself. What chances are there for Trump to turn this all around to put himself ahead of the campaign game for 2020? If he fails to get his money for the Mexico wall and even hints at another shutdown, there will be total disillusion within the Republican Party and even a plot to find a new candidate for 2020. That really would be the ultimate humiliation for Trump. I never thought I'd say this, but the Democrats will probably have a better chance of winning the 2020 election if Trump IS the Republican candidate as the incumbent president. Meanwhile, the next few weeks in Washington promise to be lively. The deadline for another potential shutdown will be here before we know it, and if there is no concession from Nancy Pelosi on border wall funding, Trump's presidency is going to go into free fall. It's bizarre but his administration may now rest on successes overseas. So a huge breakthrough with Kim Jong-un, the North Korea leader, for example, would help the Trump cause. But that, I predict, is unlikely to happen. Or a peace settlement with the Taliban followed by the withdrawal of US troops in Afghanistan would be a big bonus for his political fortunes. But, again, that's probably pie in the sky. A peace-loving Taliban is an oxymoron. In my view, and experience. So this year is going to be the defining period of Trump's presidency. If things continue to go against him throughout 2019, 2020 could be a lame duck year for him before he leaves the White House for ever.