Tuesday 6 November 2018

Migrants to face troops with guns and razor wire. A vote-winner or vote-loser?

If the thousands of Central American migrants heading for the US border through Mexico have been reading or listening to the news out of America they will know by now that there's quite a welcome party awaiting them. So far there are around 8,000 regular and National Guard troops manning the border crossing points, many of them with guns, and at least 22 miles of razor wire going up. By the time they reach the border which is weeks away because they have 800 miles to walk still, many of them might have the impression that Donald Trump and his administration do not want them to enter the United States, probably even those with a valid asylum-seeking status. Even Trump is now worried that his migrant-bashing may not have gone down so well with the voters who are going to the polls in their multi-millions in unexpectedly high-turnout midterm elections. If the Democrats win where Trump thinks the Republican candidates should walk away with it, it's going to be a helluva shock for him. For some reason a high turn-out generally means good news for Democrats, because people who wouldn't normally bother voting now feel there is a real purpose to leave the house to cast a vote as a protest against the president. Everyone from pollsters to politicians to Trump himself are putting it about that the Republicans are going to be supplanted by the Democrats in the House of Representatives. But to do that the Democrats have to win quite a few extra seats to become the majority part. It is always wise to be wholly sceptical of polls especially ones that predict with such assurance that x or y are going to win. No one - except me and a few others - predicted that Trump would beat Hillary Clinton. Every pollster in UK said there was no way the British people would vote to leave the European Union! Right up until the moment when they did exactly that. So, despite all the predictions that the Democrats will win the House I am still sticking to my gut instinct that Trump's party will wriggle through with an even smaller majority, but a majority nevertheless.

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