Are the Taliban really up for a peace settlement?

Although I retain a healthy degree of scepticism, I am beginning to think that the Taliban actually believe they will not win a military victory in Afghanistan and the time has now come to negotiate a political settlement. Zalmay Khalilzad, the US special representative for reconciliation in Afghanistan, has just held three days of talks with a Taliban delegation in Doha, capital of Qatar, and no one stormed out. This is an achievement in itself. Of course both sides are setting conditions, none of which will survive the day, but at least they are talking. The US wants the negotiations to be wrapped up within six months but the Taliban have resisted such a short timetable. They have also refused to consider a ceasefire while the negotiations go on. Unfortunately, like extremist insurgents/rebels/terrorists over history, the Taliban believe that maximum pressure needs to be applied right up until the moment when signatures are put on the agreement. And that means as much killing and mayhem as possible to force their opponents to make concessions. So it will be imperative for Khalilzad, an impeccably credentialled diplomat of Afghan birth, to accelerate the talks as much as he can so as to end the carnage in Afghanistan. The US has already made one major concession, by agreeing to hold direct talks with the Taliban rather than deal through intermediaries and leave the direct negotiations for the Afghan government. The talks between the Taliban and Kabul will happen in due course but the main foundations for a peace settlement will be sorted out by Khalilzad and his team. One of the reasons for the cautious optimism expressed by Khalilzad is that during the three days of talks, two of the Taliban negotiators were Khairullah Khairkhwah, former Taliban governor of Herat in western Afghanistan, and Mohammed Fazl, ex-Taliban military chief. Both were among five Taliban leaders released from Guantanamo Bay detention centre in Cuba in 2014, in a swap deal for US Army Sergeant Bowe Bergdahl who was captured by the Taliban in 2009 after deserting from his base in Afghanistan. At some point all five former Gitmo detainees will no doubt play a part in forging a possible peace settlement. But these two are the heavyweight ex-Taliban chiefs and the fact that they were sitting in the same room as the American negotiating team is a stunning development. One big obstacle to a settlement is that the Taliban want next year's presidential elections to be postponed and for an interim administration to be installed headed by a "neutral" leader. By neutral they mean Abdul Sattar Sirat, an Islamic scholar who has a masters degree in Islamic Sharia law and is a former Afghan justice minister. The Americans can never agree to that because they support the current leader, President Mohammad Ashraf Ghani. Khalilzad will have spelt that out in Qatar. But if the US wants a deal in six months, even that "redline" could turn a different colour. Soft pink or even white, who knows.