Monday 26 November 2018

What are the odds of Theresa May's Brexit deal being passed by Parliament?

Every newspaper every day tells us that Theresa May's Brexit deal, now approved by the rest of the EU governments, is never going to get through Parliament next month. Based on the available figures - which MP is going to vote which way - these articles seem to be right. If the whole of the Labour contingent in the Commons votes No, 20-30 Conservatives vote No, the Democratic Unionist Party votes No, and the Scottish Nationalists vote No, the Brexit deal will fall onto the scrapheap. But with two weeks to go before the vote,that gives a lot of time for genuinely worried MPs of whatever persuasion, to listen to their constituencies and perhaps come to a different decision than the one they hold right now. But will it be enough to change the voting numbers? Realists will say the answer to that is, surely not. Theresa May and 10 Downing Street will have come to the same conclusion. So does that mean we are doomed to a no-deal scenario? Not necessarily. The British are brilliant at fudges. Some people call it compromise. But actually we could end up with a fudge which means an under-the-counter deal with her opponents. Perhaps Theresa May could say to her critics, "Look, let's sign this deal to get the EU off our backs and cheer up the voters before Christmas, but I promise, when we get down to the nitty-gritty negotiations about trading with the EU - (the really hard part of exiting the EU) - and discuss timetables for transition and scrapping the customs union, if I haven't got a deal within, say, nine months, which everyone is happy about, then I will resign and call a general election, but let's first at least have a withdrawal arrangement, so we have a foundation upon which to build the future relationship with the EU." Now I have no idea whether Mrs May is considering such a fudge or whether, even if she is, Jeremy Corbyn, Labour, and Nicola Sturgeon, Scots Nats, and Arlene Foster, DUP, would go along with it. They probably wouldn't. But if an election is promised in nine months to a year, perhaps Corbyn might be tempted? In any event, Mrs May is about to embark on a nationwide tour to win support for her Brexit deal from the voters, presumably in the hope that they will persuade their MPs to back it. I think there is no question that most voters are by now so tired of the Brexit debate that they will do anything to get the politicians to shut up and get it done. This is what the prime minister is hoping anyway. It's a gamble but she might as well go for it, because it could work.

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