Tuesday 27 November 2018

Trump pulls rug from under Theresa May, but is he right?

Every day gets worse and worse for Theresa May and her government. The latest blow comes from Washington where President Trump kindly informed the world that the great Brexit deal was good for the EU - ie bad for the UK - and that the US will not be able to forge new trade deals with Britain as a result. One of the principle reasons for leaving the EU was for Britain to be able to negotiate trade deals independently around the world, including and especially with the US, without being encumbered by EU trade regulations. Theresa May insists this is still the situation if Parliament votes in favour of her Brexit deal. But from my reading of the small print, it may be true EVENTUALLY but definitely not for about two years after we leave the EU on March 29 next year and probably for several more years after that. So I'm afraid to say that Trump is right, and however 10 Downing Street tries to explain it away, what he said ties in with this small print. The UK will NOT be able to forge a special UK/US trade agreement until AFTER the UK government agrees a trade relationship with the EU, and in the meantime - two years, three years, four years, five years, who knows - we Brits will be subject to EU regulations without having any say in how they might be improved, changed or strengthened. We in the UK will not have a voice in decision-making in Brussels and Strasbourg from May 29 2019. Downing Street says Trump is wrong and as proof has revealed that British and American trade negotiators have already met five times to begin putting an agreement together. But that's disingenuous. Whatever decisions they come to cannot be implemented until after the UK has finally extricated itself from the rules and regulations and restrictions of the EU. 2023-2025 maybe?! Obviously what Trump said doesn't help Theresa May in her almost impossible task of selling her Brexit deal. But it's better to be truthful than claim we're about to sign a wonderful lucrative trade deal with the US. Trump is also following a precedent set by his predecessor, Barack Obama who informed reporters at a press conference in London in April 2016 that the UK would be "at the back of the queue" for trade deals with the US if it left the EU. He probably thought he was being helpful to David Cameron, then prime minister. His remark was made two months before the UK referendum was held on whether to remain in or leave the EU. So, basically, Trump said the same thing: the UK will now be at the back of the queue for trade deals with the US. The answer? Stay in the EU and benefit from the US/EU trade agreement which will one day be signed. But that means throwing Brexit down the drain and pleading with the EU for the UK to come back into the fold. I fear that option is disappearing fast.

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