Thursday 22 November 2018

Why Saudi Arabia is so important apart from oil and arms

Congress is getting all upset about Trump's decision to carry on working with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman whether he authorised the killing of Jamal Khashoggi or not. But Jim Mattis, US Defence Secretary, ever a realist, has astutely given his own view of the reason for sticking with the Saudi royal family, despite the brutal and gruesome murder - all on tape - of the Saudi dissident journalist. Chatting to my old friends and colleagues in the Pentagon press corps, Mattis said it was a fact of life that US presidents don't have the freedom to work with "unblemished partners". Wonderful word to select from the lexicon of available adjectives to describe someone suspected of ordering the death of a nuisance journalist. But he is right of course. The Saudi regime is not the only one to have allegedly ordered murders of opponents and yet still shake hands with the president of the United States. The leaders of Russia, China, North Korea and The Philippines just to mention a few. If there were absolute proof that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) authorised the killing, that might make it trickier for Trump to shake his hand the next time they meet. But the way things have worked out so far, I doubt this will ever happen even if one of the team of assassins claims in his trial that he was only carrying out orders from above - and names MBS. That in itself will still not be proof because MBS, and no doubt the Saudi prosecutor involved, will dismiss it as hearsay. Lawyers love to say that. The CIA clearly doesn't have absolute proof because their leaked assessment following an investigation of all the intelligence tidbits referred to their analysis of all the available material, not prima facie evidence. And even if they find the "silver bullet" that points to MBS's guilt, Trump will put it into some sort of context that makes it sound more like fantasy than fact. After Mattis referred to America's blemished partners, he spoke at length about the role the Saudis are playing in attempting to bring the war in Yemen to an end, in which of course they are a major bombing protagonist, and also in facilitating negotiations between the US and the Taliban to bring the war in Afghanistan to a close. If Trump had pulled the plug on US/Saudi relations over the murder of Khashoggi, at stake would not only be all those fat defence contracts and oil deals but also the vital strategic partnership for meeting all the challenges in the Middle East and Iran and in countering international terrorism. I don't think either Barack Obama or George W Bush or Bill Clinton would have come to a different conclusion than the one Trump made. It's not moral or honourable or in line with western values - something the US usually underlines in terms of its foreign policy - but if Mattis says the US has no choice but to continue dealing with unsavoury characters (my words, not his), then that's the way it is!

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