Tuesday 13 November 2018

Fingers crossed for the 500-page Brexit deal

How many people in the UK are going to find the time or interest to read all 500 pages of the Brexit deal which Theresa May has now agreed with the EU? Probably very few but since this is the most important life-changing, country-changing, future-changing agreement for this kingdom since the event in 1066, it is imperative that as many voters as possible read the lot and try and understand it. Every MP certainly has an obligation to put aside a whole day to read it and comprehend its complexities. It is actually an amazing achievement that we have a deal at all, especially after the brinkmanship played by both the UK government and the EU. But will it be a deal that can pass through the House of Commons? And is it a deal that is fair and balanced and guaranteed not to destroy our economy and our way of life and our trade hopes? The first thing to say is that this agreement has to be better than a no-deal rupture which would undermine this country's economic future. Those who still advocate that a no-deal is better than a bad deal have a strong argument but I cannot believe that Theresa May will put her signature to an agreement that will be bad for the UK. I have a faith in her. Yes, I have faith in her. So I believe after this titanic negotiating, Theresa May will survive as prime minister. Nobody wants a general election which will only add more uncertainty to a post-Brexit UK. Most Conservatives don't want it and if the deal is passed in parliament, none of the high-flying Leavers like Boris Johnson, the former foreign secretary, will stand a chance of uprooting May and going for the leadership of the Conservative Party. And Labour don't want an election, whatever Jeremy Corbyn, their leader, says, because many Labour MPs will probably lose their seats. So, if the deal is seen to be the best that can be negotiated under the circumstances, Theresa May will be bathed in glory and will carry on as leader. The MPs who will devote most time to reading the 500 pages will be the members of the Democratic Unionist Party. If the wording is ambivalent about the border between the north and south they will be the first to denounce it. But I'm sure the language will be sufficiently reassuring to keep the DUP on side. Otherwise, what's the point of the whole exercise? So it's fingers crossed time for Theresa May and her negotiating team. If parliament throws the deal out, then what?! Then we will all be in serious trouble and the Theresa May government will fall.

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