Thursday 5 July 2018

Sanctions haven't changed Putin's ambitions

So EU economic sanctions against Russia have been extended for another six months because of Putin's long-running and continued military intervention in eastern Ukraine. The sanctions mainly target Russia's financial, energy and defence sectors. But will they, do they, make any difference? Do sanctions in general have a genuine role in bringing a positive outcome to an otherwise intransigent political blockage? Putin I'm sure is seriously fed up with countries ganging up against him as he tries to expand and improve Russia's economy. But does it actually make him think, "Oh hell, I can't take this anymore, I'm going to recall all my boys from Ukraine." Er, no. The EU sanctions were originally imposed after the annexation of Crimea in 2014. But Crimea remains annexed and no one, least of all Nato or the United States, is planning to un-annexe it. As Trump himself said, "Well they're are all Russians in Crimea, aren't they?" As for eastern Ukraine, it doesn't make the news in the West these days, so there seems to be very little willingness to help out the Kiev government. That's why sanctions remain in play because it makes the EU feel they are doing something to punish Putin. The Russian leader seems to find ways to get round the measures. But there is an argument for really tough sanctions. They can work. Maybe not with Putin, but Iran blinked. The Iranian economy was ruined by years of Western sanctions, so much so that, fearing widespread protests from the younger generation of Iranians, they agreed the now infamous 2015 nuclear deal - stopping their nuclear bomb programme in return for a lifting of economic sanctions. Success! Until Trump turned up and tore up the deal. Now the Ayatollahs have got countrywide protests all over again. Who knows, with the US reimposing all the heavyweight sanctions, perhaps Tehran will beg for mercy and agree to stop causing mayhem wherever they send their Revolutionary Guards Quds Force. Very unlikely of course, but if the US sanctions really do stir up trouble for the Ayatollahs, they might just temper their mischief-making. This is what Trump is counting on. But Putin? I expect he hopes to do a deal with Trump at their summit in Helsinki on July 16. He'll push for sanctions to be lifted and, in return, will promise (with a straight face) to cooperate fully with the US on all the major global issues. If that were to include persuading the Iranian troops and special forces to get the hell out of Syria, that would be a result. Too much to hope for I guess.

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