Friday 6 July 2018

Shall we invade Venezuela, asks Trump?

Trump is not the first US president to muse about invading a country. With such massive firepower and troop power behind you, it must be very easy to think of the military option when something tricky comes up on the world stage. Like Venezuela. The reports coming out of that devastated country, ruined by the dictatorial abuses of the Maduro government, make even the most humble mortal think, "Come on let's put the poor Venezuelans out of their misery and remove that ghastly Maduro and his henchmen." Well, Trump of course is not a humble mortal, he is the president of the only real superpower left in the world, and he did just that. He pondered on the possibility of invading Venezuela while chatting to his aides in the Oval Office last August, acording to the Associated Press. Those present, including HR McMaster, then national security adviser, reacted with horror and gave Trump a million reasons why invasion would be a bad thing. But I bet Trump thought, "Such whimps, they never want me to use the military boys but what are they there for, and, by the way, I'm the commander-in-chief." So, assuming Trump has not put the invasion idea off completely, what might bring it on? Not appeals from the other South American countries, that's for sure. They have been tiptoeing around the Venezuela Problem for such a long time, they would be scared stiff at the thought of their neighbour being overrun by US Marines, never mind their dislike of the awful former bus driver Maduro. They're not happy that tens of thousands of desperate, hungry Venezuelans have fled over the borders, but they are not prepared to do anything significant about challenging Maduro himself, apart from a few sanctions and preparing to kick Venezuela out of the Organisation of American States (OAS). Big deal! So I reckon Trump will return to this invasion idea at some point. What might trigger the military option is a humanitarian disaster and mass shooting of protestors on the streets on a scale not yet seen in the country. Tony Blair, the former Labour UK prime minister, was always in favour of intervention to deal with humanitarian disasters. I can't see Theresa May signing up to any form of intervention in Venezuela. She has enough on her plate with Brexit. But Trump? Maybe.

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