Tuesday 31 July 2018

Trump's charm offensive to Iran hits a brick wall

Donald Trump has been consistent with one thing. He has said that he is prepared to talk to anyone if they are prepared to talk to him. Even Robert Mueller!! But his latest offer of talks, this time to President Hassan Rouhani, the Iranian leader, fell on very deaf ears. Well actually Rouhani heard him all right but then got his aides to squash any such thoughts. Brick wall diplomacy. Trump probably thought, if Kim Jong-un realised it was a good idea to talk to him, then why not Rouhani who is supposed to be a reformist leader? You can understand why the Iranian said no no no. He said it would be humiliating to meet the man who scrapped America's participation in the infamous 2015 Iran nuclear deal. You can see his point. But Rouhani might reconsider, who knows. Sometimes you need to talk to your enemy. That's the oldest idea in the book but it can work. The British government spoke to the Provisional IRA through a back channel to try and get peace talks moving. The Spanish government, through intermediaries, talked clandestinely to the ETA Basque terrorist leaders. In the Cold War the US spoke to the Soviet Union. So Trump's offer, while seemingly unacceptable right now, might just be not a bad idea, even for the Iranians. But I bet Trump would shrink from meeting with the dreaded Major General Qasem Soleimani, commander of the Iranian Republican Guards Quds Force, the extremely well-funded special forces organisation responsible for Iran's malign and violent activities throughout the Middle East and especially Syria. I can't see Trump ever extending his hand to General Soleimani who only last week said he was fully prepared for war with the US after the president's threatening tweet against Iran. Iran's economy desperately needs relief from US sanctions, but Rouhani knows that Trump will never lift the sanctions unless Tehran agrees to a comprehensive new deal, not just covering nuclear issues but also embracing the activities of General Suleimani and his band of malevolent brothers. But Rouhani can't restrain Soleimani because the Quds Force commander answers only to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader. To the Ayatollah, the US (and Trump) will always be the true Satan. So for now, Trump's offer will continue to hit that brick wall. However, is there a secret back channel to Tehran, involving perhaps the CIA, and, if so, could this be quite active at the moment? Intriguing thought.

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