Sunday, 8 June 2025

Would massive new sanctions against Russia make any difference?

What is going to force Vladimir Putin to change his course with Ukraine? Total defeat is never going to happen, despite all the initial optimism around in the US and Europe when Putin's war faltered in the first few weeks. International sanctions have bitten into Russia's economy but Putin and his empire have survived and thrived. Now Senator Lindsay Graham, the influential supporter of Donald Trump, has come up with a staggeringly brutal new sanctions package which he hopes will finally cripple Russia's economy. He has put forward a bill which would impose a 500 per cent tariff on all countries which still trade with Russia. This is mainly aimed at China and India who have continued throughout the war in Ukraine to buy Russian oil and gas, but also Europe which still, amazingly, buys natural gas from Moscow. If this goes ahead and this extraordinary tariff is deployed, the huge sums Moscow is getting from exporting its oil and gas will be largely cut off. This would have a huge impact on the country's war economy and its ability to continue fighting Ukraine. But it would also cut a swathe through the economies of China, India and Europe. Putin will be calculating that the Trump administration will never go along with it. But it just might be the only option left to bring Putin to his senses. Russia is a country with huge natural resources and relies on other countries to buy its oil and gas to maintain the economy and the war in Ukraine. It will probably be one of those things which Trump will wave around as an option against Moscow but not actually do it.

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