This is the big week for Ukraine and Venezuela

This coming week is, I suspect, the one in which Donald Trump wants to wrap up Ukraine and Venezuela. War to end in Ukraine and war to begin in Venezuela. He will succeed with neither. Despite all the comings and goings over the weekend and in the next few days, it seems highly unlikely that Moscow will announce concessions to bring the war in Ukraine to an end by Christmas. It just won't happen. Putin claims he is in a frame of mind to talk about a settlement but as he will no doubt repeat to Trump's man, Steve Witkoff, when he arrives in Moscow, he will sign nothing unless it's on his terms. The terms he likes are contained in Trump's now infamous 28-point plan which is so pro-Russia it might as well have been drawn up by the Russians. Well, actually, it was, when Witkoff met up with Kirill Dmitriev, his Russian counterpart, when they met in Miami. Dmitriev, like Witkoff, is not a diplomat but a businessman who overseas Russia's Wealth Fund. Anyway, what they concocted together might as well have been written in Russian it was so pro-Moscow. Witkoff is off to Moscow tomorrow to see Putin to talk about the revised plan which has 19 points, not 28. I see little hope of converting Putin to agreeing to anything. As for Venezuela, Trump says he has made up his mind what he is going to do about the drug cartels and Nicolas Maduro, the leader in Caracas. But will this be the week when Maduro and the rest of us discover what it is Trump has decided. It could well be this week but it will surely fall well short of an invasion.

Trump in new threat to Venezuela

Donald Trump has announced the closure of airspace around Venezuela, indicating that air attacks might be imminent on drug-cartel targets in the country. Trump doesn't have the power or authority to close airspace over another country but he has effectively done just that by warning all airlines, as well as drug and human traffickers, to stay out of Venezuelan airspace. Obviously, Trump's telephone chat with Nicolas Maduro, the Venezuelan dictator, in the last few days can't have gone very well because in a Truth Social posting today, the USA president gave the strongest hint yet that he intends to authorise some form of interventionist military action. The US military is off or close to Venezuela in huge force, with the aircraft carrier, USS Gerald R Ford, ready with its wing of fighter bombers to attack any targets on Trump's list. Plus there are now 15,000 military personnel, based on amphibious assault ships and on a base in Puerto Rico, all primed for action. The whole region is bristling with American firepower. Maduro has mobilised thousands of troops. But it's more likely the US will cary out airstrikes rather than put boots on the ground, although Trump has not ruled this out. So, it looks like the early stages of shooting suspected drug-carrying boats out of the water is nearing an end and the next stage aimed at eliminating Venezuela's cocaine-trafficking industry, and the political and military leaders who are allegedly linked to the cartels, is about to be launched. BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER, STARRING REBECCA STRONG.

Trump slams the door on migration after shooting

It might be a natural emotional response to suspend all migration from Third World countries into the United States after the shooting of two National Guards soldiers by an Afghan immigrant. But, particularly for the thousands of Afghans who are desperate to leave the Taliban rule in Afghanistan and for those who have already been granted temporary status in the US, Donald Trump's decision must have come as a massive blow to their hopes of a safer and more prosperous future. Tens of thousands of Afghans were allowed into the US after the Taleban returned to power in 2021 and while some have already been granted residency rights, the majority are still waiting for confirmation that they can expect American nationality status. All that is now on hold. Likewise, for those still in Afghanistan and waiting for permission to move to the US, the door has been slammed shut. All these people are being punished for the sins - alleged sins - of one Afghan migrant who repaid the generosity of the US by attacking two soldiers on the streets of Washington DC, one of whom, 20-year-old Sarah Beckstrom, has now tragically died of her injuries. The other soldier is fighting for his life. Many of the other Afghans who have settled in the US are already proving their value as citizens, working in good jobs and providing for their families. It would be shameful if they are sent back to Afghanistan because of the national anger over the appalling action of one deranged gunman.

Washington DC becoming troop city

The attack on two National Guardsmen in the heart of Washington DC was horrendous and inexplicable. Why would an Afghan who had served with a CIA-backed unit in Afghanistan feel the need to drive across the US from his home state, Washington, to try and assassinate soldiers in the capital just doing their job? It makes no sense. But the alleged guilty man, now critically injured, like his two victims, must have some twisted view about having soldiers on the streets. But what seems a bit strange is that Pete Hegseth, the US defence secretary, has reacted by sending 500 more National Guardsmen into the capital. Deploying troops on the streets in any city was a dubious decision in the first place, and the sight of hundreds of soldiers in uniform patrolling Washington never looked right. There are so many different police forces in the capital already, one wonders why they aren't all tripping over each other. Sending another 500 seems to me to be a gut reaction which will just make everyone think of Washington as a dangerous city. Which it isn't. This was, hopefully, a one-off shooting committed by someone with serious mental health problems. It doesn't really justify pouring more troops into the capital.

Trump's new special Ukraine negotiator

It’s said that when President Trump talks about his man in the room with the Russians and the Ukrainians, he still simply refers to Dan Driscoll as the “drone guy”. There’s more to Driscoll, however, than his espousal of the virtues of technology on the modern battlefield. Already a rising star in Trump’s firmament after his appointment, at 38, as the youngest US Army secretary in US history, he has now been plucked to be the president’s point man to end the war in Ukraine. In an administration where a meteoric rise can often be followed by a stratospheric fall, insiders suggest that Driscoll may prove to be a survivor in Team Trump. Indeed, some Washington sources suggest Driscoll is more trusted by the White House than his Pentagon boss, Pete Hegseth, the Defence Secretary, to deliver sensitive messages on the world stage. It was notably Driscoll, not Marco Rubio, the secretary of state, nor Steve Witkoff, Trump’s ubiquitous special envoy, nor Hegseth, who was personally chosen by the president to meet with President Zelensky in Kyiv to outline the 28-point peace plan which had been crafted between the US and Russia, without Ukrainian participation. Now Driscoll is in Abu Dhabi, speaking with an official Russian delegation to discuss the Trump peace package which has unnerved Kyiv and European leaders and led to a counter proposal, with some of the most controversial clauses deleted to form a 19-point settlement proposal. So trusted is Driscoll in the White House that he is effectively on his own with the Russians, according to sources. There is no pack of diplomats and military officials to back him up. One former senior Pentagon official explained his extraordinary new status in the Trump administration: “He is a Yale law roommate of JD Vance.” While it is true Driscoll is a longstanding friend of the vice president, he has made such an impression since he took over as army secretary (the civilian head of the army), rumours have been circulating for weeks that he is the natural replacement for Hegseth, were Trump to take against the former Fox News presenter. Hegseth’s leadership of the Pentagon has been beset with wholesale sackings and warnings of lie-detector tests for suspected disloyal officials. Reports of a personality clash with Driscoll have been dismissed by Hegseth as fake news. Colleagues say it is unlikely that Driscoll would have clashed with Hegseth. He is personable, easy-going but also super-efficient and has won praise from within Congress for being open and cooperative. Born in Boone, North Carolina, he came from a family with a military background. His grandfather served in the army in the Second World War as a decoder and his father was an infantryman in Vietnam. He was commissioned in the army in 2007 and saw active service in Iraq in 2009 with the 10th Mountain Division, in support of Operation Iraqi Freedom. After leaving active duty, he went to Yale law school where he met and befriended the future vice president. He then moved into investment banking and at one point was chief operating officer of a $200 million venture capital fund. He married his high school sweetheart and they have two children. He caught Trump’s eye because of his espousal of drones as the way forward, encouraging and inspiring army chiefs to adapt to the new style of warfare, highlighted so dramatically in the war between Russia and Ukraine. “He’s a serious guy who is willing to have a conversation in a way that is both professional and shows he has a cogent worldview,” a Democratic congressman told reporters. Driscoll has been present at all the recent meetings arranged to promote the latest Ukraine peace efforts. After a few days in Kyiv, accompanied by General Randy George, US Army chief of staff, he flew to Geneva to join Rubio and other diplomats for discussions with European officials, including Jonathan Powell, UK national security adviser; and, finally, to Abu Dhabi, arriving on Monday evening. As chief executive of an organisation consisting of nearly one million active, national guard and reserve soldiers and more than 265,000 civilians, Driscoll always had three goals: to serve in the military, to attend law school and to be in politics. His political ambitions have yet to be realised but with Trump and Vance behind him, he looks set for a glowing future. BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER, A PAPERBACK DESCRIBED AS BRILLIANT AND EXCITING BY REVIEWERS

Russia and Europe/US/Ukraine are in parallel universes

Whatever "the West" comes up with to end the war in Ukraine, Putin is going to reject it for two reasons: first, he won't sign anything unless it gives him everything he wants (and this was pretty much entrenched in Trump's 28-point peace plan - all in Moscow's favour); and second, because it suits him to carry on the war. He has built a war economy and no one or hardly anyone in Russia is protesting and he believes that if he carries on attacking Ukraine, in the end, Kyiv will just capitulate, and then Putin gets even more than his wildest dreams - the subjugation of an irritating neighbour. So, unless the 28-point plan, now reduced to 19 points after meddling by Kyiv and Europe, is rewriten once again and becomes more like Trump's original offer, the war will go on and on. All this desperate scrambling around to get a peace deal before Christmas will be to no avail. Some papers are already headlining their Ukraine stories as "Peace in Ukraine". Who, I mean who, are they kidding? Putin doesn't even know the meaning of peace, but he does know the meaning of war. War is destabilising for the whole of Europe and that's precisely what he wants.

The European version of Trump's plan for Ukraine garotted by Moscow

Surprise surprise, the first comment about Europe's rush to get Trump's 28-point peace plan for Ukraine rewritten in favour of Kyiv is entirely negative. Well, of course it is. Why does anyone think that Moscow will agree to a peace plan which doesn't stick to the Trump blueprint which is almost totally pro-Russia. A Russian official told reporters Moscow liked the version put out by Trump and ridicules the adapted one emerging from Geneva talks between Marco Rubio, US secretary of state, and European and Ukrainian officials. Presumably the modified version which has got everyone bar Moscow so excited, allows Ukraine to apply for Nato, rejects any handover of eastern Ukraine to Russia and says Kyiv can keep all the lovely weapons it has received from the West over the last near-four years. Moscow will laugh this one out of court and Ukraine will have to face another long freezing winter of war and more war. What beats me is how the US/Euopre/Ukraine could cobble up a new peace blueprint without taking into account the obvious fact that Putin will just hurl it in the wastebin. BUY MY NEW SPY THRILLER AGENT REDRUTH AS A GIFT FOR CHRISTMAS. REVIEWERS HAVE ALL PRAISED IT.

Confusion over who drew up the so-called Ukraine peace plan

Even Donald Trump admits "his" 28-point peace plan which he insisted Zelensky had to agree with by Thursday, isn't actually the final draft but can be adapted or modified or whatever. Then, according to remarks attributed by Congressional types to Marco Rubio, the US secretary of state, the leaked document was more a Russian proposal and shouldn't have been leaked and was just a list of potential measures for discussion. But no, Rubio comes out later and says it WAS a US document, not a Russian one, and because it has been leaked it meant there was a lot of unwelcome bad publicity. I and millions of other people haven't a clue what's going on. I just feel sorry for poor old Zelensky who has to deal with all the rubbish circulating and seems more and more like a person with his head jammed in medieval stocks and having everything from rotten tomatoes to stones thrown at him. He doesn't know where to turn. The peace plan as leaked is so ludicrously pro-Moscow it might as well be thrown into the dustbin European leaders say it has some good parts, desperately trying to butter up to Trump. By that I assume they mean the vague references to a future security guarantee and ptoential membership of the EU. But everything else will need to be redrafted, rewritten or totally replaced. Which is why the talks today in Geneva between Rubio and Ukrainian and European officials could produce a revised plan which then won't be at all acceptable to Moscow and the whole exercise will collapse. A CHRISTMAS GIFT: MY NEW SPY THRILLER, AGENT REDRUTH, AN UNPUTDOWNABLE PAPERBACK WITH A STRONG RUSSIAN THEME.

Trump has to promise more for Zelensky

Volodymyr Zelensky has to have something to show to the Ukrainian people that all their suffering has been worthwhile. At present, under the Trump 28-point plan, there is very little for the poor Ukrainian leader to tell his people other than to face defeat, humiliation, loss of territory and a bleak future. So, if there is to be any hope of ending this war, the Trump plan will have to be dramatically modified. At present there are only three indredients in the plan which culd theoretically be described as positive for Kyiv: the possibility of membership of the EU some time in the future, the use of frozen Russian assets to help pay for reconstruction of the battered country, and the potential at least of some form of US security guarantee for Ukraine against any further aggression by Moscow. These three elements now need to be built up to form a much bigger part of the peace plan. The security guarantee needs to be spelled out in greater detail so that Moscow will know that any further attacks on Ukraine once the war is over will mean direct confrontation militarily with the US and the whole of Nato. The EU membership offer should have a timetable attached, and help given to Kyiv to stamp out corruption. And Moscow must be told that Russia will have no say in the decision to use the billions of dollars frozen in overseas banks as a result of international sanctions to rebuild the towns and cities hammered by Russian missile and bomb attacks. At least then Zelensky will have something to show for the agonies of the past four years. But I still don't see how Zelensky can ever agree to handing over the whole of the Donbas region to Moscow. In the eyes of the Ukrainian troops who have fought and shed blood to prevent Russian troops from seizing the whole of the region, this would be a betrayal of unforgiveable proportions. BUY FOR CHRISTMAS MY NEW SPY THRILLER AGENT REDRUTH. REVIEWERS HAVE PRAISED IT AND GIVEN IT FIVE STARS.

The Trump peace plan for Ukraine is victory for Putin

How can Donald Trump's envoy, Steve Witkoff, think that his new peace plan to end the war in Ukraine is ever going to be acceptable to Kyiv, or Europe or anyone who believes that the poor Ukrainians who have suffered so much in nearly four years, deserve justice and security and support. It beggars belief that Witkoff actually believes he has produced a master plan. The master plan has been produced by Moscow. It promises everything Putin wanted: the whole of the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine handed over, no Nato membership for Ukraine, ever, a halving of the Ukrainian army and absolutely no international force allowed in Ukraine to monitor a ceasefire. There is nothing in the new plan that hasn't been offered before, and nothing in it to even hint at any sort of concession by Moscow. It's all in Putin's favour. So who is kidding whom? Zelensky cannot accept it even though he has pledged to talk to Trump about it and give it an honest assessment. There is nothing in it for him. It would be the equivalent of total surrender. What about all the lives lost or ruined by Putin's bombs and missiles and artillery? What about the homes and businesses and power stations destroyed? Is the suffering of the Ukrainian people to be rewarded with surrender to the Russian invaders? This is a dangerous moment in history

Is the UK in danger from Putin aggression?

You would have thought Putin had enough on his mind dealing with Ukraine and Washington and oil sanctions etc but it seems he has told the Russian navy to play dangerous war games with the UK. There is a huge fuss about the arrival of an intelligence-gathering ship disguised as an innocent research vessel off Scotland. The Defence Secretary John Healey has issued a warning to Putin, saying he knows what the Russian president is up to and he is watching, and if the ship approaches further south into UK waters, he is ready to take action. What, will the spy ship be sunk? Russian spy ships off Scotland have been a fact of life ever since the Cold War was invented. It's not new. The only new thing is that the present government has decided that Putin is declaring a sort of step-by-step war with the UK, underlined by the fact that for the first time the spy ship fired lasers to blind the pilots of maritime patrol aircraft monitoring the progress of the vessel. That's what's new, demonstrating that spy ships have now been given new orders to be provocative and dangerously aggressive. Whether it's a good idea for the government to effectively declare war on the spy ship if it enters UK waters is a moot point. But Putin now knows that if the vessel ventures an inch or two into UK waters, it might just get a surprise. A shot across the bows, perhaps. It's all potentially risky stuff. But Putin is getting away with too much these days which makes the latest war-ending peace proposal from Washington to Moscow vis-a-vis Ukraine even more reprehensible - the old but revitalised land-for-peace formula.It will die a death, like all the previous so-called peace proposals.

Zelensky in new moves to end the war in Ukraine

Volodymyr Zelensky is on his travels once again. He spends almost as much time overseas than he does at home, and all because he desperately needs to shore up support from Europe for his confrontation with Moscow. Today he is in Turkey to meet with President Erdogan who, of all Euorpean/Mato leaders, has as strong ties with Moscow as he does with Europe. The trouble is, Zelensky's pursuit of peace, while fully understandable, comes as Putin is stepping up attacks on targets in Ukraine, civilian and energy, and looks set to seize the crucial town of Pokrovsk in the Donbas region, eastern Ukraine. On the battlefield it's going Moscow's way and that means Zelensky's appeals for help to bring the war to an end are looking like appeals from weakness rather than from strength. Putin is most unlikely to listen to peace overtures under such circumstances. When he sees the enemy weakening, he just pushes harder. Apart from Turkey. Zelensky has also been to Paris where he won a promise from Macron to buy 100 Rafaele fighter jets, and Madrid where there was an agreement to cooperate on arms industry projects. Euorpe still backs him, although the huge corruption scandal currently being exposed in Ukraine won't help to keep European leaders loyal for ever unless it is dealt with firmly. While Zelensky seeks peace, Putin continues to say peace can only come on his terms. So, no change there. THE IDEAL CHRISTMAS PRESENT - MY NEW SPY THRILLER AGENT REDRUTH. BUY FROM AMAZON, WATERSTONES ETC.

Trump's officials are talking to Maduro

One wonders what the Trump administration has to say to Nicolas Maduro, the much-despised dictator of Venezuela, a country which hasn't enjoyed democracy for decades. It could be a one-way conversation: Maduro told to go and live in exile with his corrupt family and regime hierarchy, and let the country have a better future, or else the US guns will start firing. I don't know how legal that would be under internatinal law. But Maduro, I guess, might just be scared at the prospect of having tens of thousands of US troops invading Venezuela, or seeing Tomahahawk cruise missiles flying towards his palace in Caracas. It all depends on whether Donald Trump really wants to put boots on the ground in Venezeula, and Maduro might calculate that actually the US president is bluffing. He won't know, nor does anyone else. That's the beauty of Trumpian-style brinkmanship. He is so open and yet so secretive about his true intentions on anything that it's near-impossible to judge what he is going to do next. But the fact is, the US now has a very impressive armada in the Carribean Sea which Maduro might be able to see from his top-floor presidential suite. It must be truly unnerving and who knows, perhaps he will consider hopping off and going to live in Cuba. But somehow I doubt it. I think he will hold off and hope that Trump at the last moment will chicken out and send the mighty carrier strike group somewhere else. BUY FOR CHRISTMAS MY NEW SPY THRILLER AGENT REDRUTH, SEQUEL TO SHADOW LIVES, STARRING THE MAZAING SPY HERIONE REBECCA STRONG.

Netanyahu downplays Israeli settler violence

Judging by disturbing reporting on how Palestinian families on the edges of the West Bank are being targeted, violently, by Israeli settlers, the steady and increasing encroachment onto Palestinian land, especially the valuable olive-growing farmland, is dramatically and dangerously raising tensions in this area. Yet, Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister and Great Political Survivor, dismusses the violence as the work of a few extremists. If the reporting is accurate and I have no reason to doubt its validity because some of it has come from the excellent Lucy Williamson, the BBC's Middle East correspondent, then Netanyhau could be accused of turning a blind eye to what is going on. The expanding Jewish settlements have been criticised by the US and Britain and most of Europe, but Tel Aviv is not listening. The trouble is that while the world, and in particular Washington, is focusing on trying to sort out a future for Gaza, the rising violence in the West Bank has become a side issue when it should be part of the whole regional problem. The West Bank must be part of the solution for peace, not an an add-on in small print. Netanyahu has once again stipulated that he doesn't want a Palestinian state of any kind because he says it will reward Hamas, and Hamas will then have a bigger role if there is an independent state. But Trump's plan includes the demilitarisation of Gaza and the disarming of Hamas. If eiter of these conditions for peace fail to come to pass, then the Trump plan itself will fail. I don't think Netanyahu will mind.

Illegal immigration is here to stay

There is no solution on this earth to stop the illegal immigration of millions of people who desperately want to leave their own countries and seek a better life anywhere else. Every country in Europe is facing the problem but no government has the amswer. In the UK successive governments have tried any number of different schemes. None of them has worked. The last Conservative government came up with the rudiculous idea of sending all illegal immigrants off by plane to Rwanda, and spent more than £100 million in payments to the Rwandan government to build special housing etc for the arrivals. It was a disaster and a total waste of money and failed. That was dropped by the new Labour gopvernment and now this lot is producing all kinds of ideas to stem the influx of migrants. None of them will work. The latest stupid idea is to tell all would-be migrants that if they seek asylum here in the UK they will have to wait 20 years before they will be considered. But presumably that means they will still come here and live for 20 years thank you very much and then either be given asylum because their countries of origin are still ghastly places or be sent home because in the view of judges etc their countries are now shining lights of democracy. But they will still have enjoyed all the welfare benefits of living in the UK for two decades. So what's the point of it all? The brilliant brains at the Home Office elieve that this 20-year rule will be so off-putting, it will act as a deterrent. Nonsense. That's what they said about the Rwanda scheme. Then there is the scheme to house people waiting for immigration processing into old army camps instead of hotels but that's already causing protests from people living clsoe to these derelict barracks and the whole concept is ludicrous. As I said, there is no solution. Amd Britain is an island, so we can't do a Trump and build a huge wall on our frontiers.

What next if Putin seizes Pokrovsk?

There are two theories about Putin and Ukraine if Russian troops seize the key city of Pokrovsk: either the Russian president will just continue fighting to try and grab more and more territory, or he will use the defeat of Pokrovsk to lure Trump back onto his side and force Kyiv to agree a settlement. It could go either way. But there must come a point when Putin realises he is losing more than he is gaining. Yes, victory at Pokrovsk in the Donetsk province in eastern Ukraine would be a blow to Kyiv and a big achievement for Moscow. But Putin is now facing major pressure with the Russian economy. Trump's oil sanctions are beginning to have an affect and the likely seizure of Pokrovsk has only been possible at a cost of thousands of casualties. The death and injuries toll on the Russian side is now so huge that no one knows for sure what the total casualty figures are. So, with the economy under pressure, and casualties rising every week, Putin will be considering the right moment to get Trump back on board. Victory on the battlefield will give him the leverage he needs to persuade Trump, and President Zelensky, to agree a settlement that will satisfy him. There will have to be a deal at some point but having angered Trump over his refusal to agree any sort of compromise or ceasefire, Putin must be realising that Trump is the key to getting his way over Kyiv. So if Pokrovsk falls to the Russians, let's see how long it takes for Putin to make the call to the White House.

Starmer u-turns over u-turn

So, in a classic move, Keir Starmer, prime minister of this great country, and Rachel Reeves, chancellor and in charge of all our money, have leaked out that, after all, they won't be increasing income tax by 2p in the pound to try and fill the huge black hole in the government finances. While many people will see this as good news, it's also a remarkable u-turn of a u-turn. In its manifesto to win the election, the Labour Party and specifically Reeves promised never to increase income tax or VAT etc etc. Then it emerged in recent weeks that Reeves was contemplating reneging on the manifesto pledge because she had bo alternative but to raise income tax, whatever the consequences. Critics both in and out of the Labour party said she would have to resign if she announced that in the autumn budget due on November 26. There was so much vitriol aimed at her that now she has backed down and either she or one of her trusted officials has leaked to the Financial Times that she won't be doing this after all. Now she has to find some other way of raising £20 billion, and the budget is just two weeks away. Well, it has probably saved her job but whatever she decides to do instead is going to cause angst, whether she slashes at people's pensions or cuts public services or heavily taxes anyone who dares to have a decent house and bank balance.

Rubio speaks out over atrocities in Sudan

At last, Marco Rubio, US secretary of state, has spoken out about the appalling atricities going on in Sudan in the civil war between Sudanese government forces and the so-called Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a rebel militia "army" with a bloodcurdling reputation for mass killings and rapes. Speaking at a G7 summit, Rubio called on countries supporting the RSF with weapons to stop immediately. The RSF, being an ad hoc grouping of crazed killers, has no means of manufacturing its own weapons, so it relies in a flow of arms coming, it is believed, from the Gulf. The United Arab Enirates has been accused on numerous occasions aof being the main supplier of arms to the RSF, although the government there denies it. But clearly Rubio's remarks were aimed at this part of the world. Why on earth any country would want to support a terror group killing women and children and other innocent civilians on a huge scale, is beyond comprehension. If anyone can infuence the countries backing the RSF to stop, it will be the United States which is presumably why Rubio has now openly appealed for a halt to all arms supplies to this grotesque organisation. Sudan is a country used to massacres, starvation, wars and other human calamities and it's time this godforsaken part of the world was given some hope. The RSF terrorists guilty of murders and rapes of civilians should be brought to justice. BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER, PRAISED BY REVIEWERS. CHECK OUT AMAZON

The US carrier off Venezuela awaits its orders

So the giant supercarrier, USS Gerald R Ford, has at last arrived off the shore of Venezuela. On the horizon it must be an amazing sight. But as it and the crew get used to the temperatures in the Caribbean, does the commander on board actually know what he is supposed to be doing? Has he even been given his orders yet or has he been told to wait around for President Trump to make up his mind? Not only Venezuela is worried about the presence of this mighty fleet in their part of the world. Even the Royal Navy, which operates drug-busting patrols in the Caribbean, is concerned about the way the US warships have been targeting suspected drugs boats and shooting them out of the water. The death toll of alleged drugs traffickers is rising every week. The Royal Navy does things differently. If it comes across a suspected drugs boat it chases it, hails the crew to stop and tries to board it to seize the drugs and arrest the smugglers. All neat and legal according to international law. There have been many big successful drugs busts over the years, but never does the Royal Navy just aim its guns at the boats and open fire. Now, by all accounts, the Royal Navy has stopped, temporarily, sharing intelligence with the US Navy about suspected drugs boats in the Caribbean, presumably because of the fear that if they do pass intel on, the US will use it to hit another boat with maximum force. This is bad news. Cooperation between the US Navy and Royal Navy in the Caribbean is vital. Intelligence-sharing is a crucial tradition between the two navies. But for the moment it's probably not the biggest problem facing the admiral on board the Gerald R Ford. He suspects - or perhaps knows by now - that his mission is going to be very different from just knocking a few suspect boats to kingdom come.

Russia looks set for victory in key Ukraine city

All the weeks of hope and optimism and big-power summits, all for nothing. The attempts to end the war in Ukraine, notably by Donald Trump and Marco Rubio, his secretary of state, are pretty much back to square one. Putin, having rejected all suggestions of compromise, let alone a ceasefire, has redoubled his efforts to destroy Ukraine's will and to seize more territory. Now it looks like the Russian army is about to seize the key city of Pokrovsk in the Donetsk province in Donbas, eastern Ukraine which they have been attacking for more than a year. Tens of thousands of Russian troops have been involved and now they have breached Ukrainian defences and have entered the city which lies in a strategic position within Donetsk. It's a massive blow to Ukraine and a huge victory for Putin. Anyone who thought Putin had a gentler side and might be willing to end the war for the sake of the Ukrainian people and world peace should think again. This guy is ruthlessly committed to crushing Ukraine and whatever Trump does in the next few weeks or months to try and persuade him to stop, he will just carry on. There are other cities and towns in his sights and he won't ever back down. There will be no ceasefire, just war and it's going Putin's way. PLEASE BUY MY NEW SPY THRILLER, AGENT REDRUTH WHICH HAS A STRONG RUSSIAN THEME. AMAZON AND WATERSTONES.

US shutdown may now come to an end

After weeks of getting nowhere it seems there is a possibility of a deal in US Congress to end the government shutdown which has been such a disaster for millions of people. So much is going on in the world that the fact that the US has been relatively ungovernable for nearly two months has kind of gone by the wayside. But with 40 airports effectively closed because of the lack of air traffic controllers, the crisis had to be brought to a end. It took a group of Democrats to swap sides to find a formula to reopen government. it is still not finalised but judging by remarks from Congress it looks like the deal could be approved by the end of the week. As part of the compromise the Trump administration has agreed to restore the jobs of those who were all summarily sent home. In the end common sense seems to rise to the fore. Perhaps that is what all governments need to take on board. Common practical sense is what makes governing run more smoothly. Instead, there are always too many politicians on the extremes who want more and more, never mind the hardships facing their country. BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER. YOU WILL LOVE IT. CHECK IT OUT ON AMAZON

What is Trump really up to in Venezuela?

Venezuela has been on tenterhooks for weeks, waiting as the United States gathers the biggest armada of warships seen in the Caribbean for decades. This coming week, the world’s largest aircraft carrier, USS Gerald R Ford, will arrive from the Mediterranean to join the assortment of destroyers, frigates, amphibious assault vessels and one nuclear-powered submarine. No one seems to know exactly what this magnificent display of American naval firepower is all about. Has it been sent to destroy the cocaine smuggling networks in Venezuela, or topple President Nicolas Maduro, the egregious leader of that poor country; or is its purpose to remind the Latin American region that the US under Donald Trump could come in “guns a-blazing” whenever it wants? Whatever the answer, Trump is currently examining all the options for some form of possible military action over and above the target practice granted the US Navy to knock out any speedboat coming out of Venezuela suspected of carrying bags pf cocaine and drug smugglers heading for the US. The tally so far is at least 17 vessels destroyed, including one semi-submersible, resulting in the death of 70 people. However, this is not the sort of mission appropriate for the mighty Gerald R Ford, a carrier with up to 90 aircraft on board, including the super-advanced F-35C stealth fighter. There has to be a grander plan. This, at least, will be the thinking of President Maduro who has been appealing for military help from his backers, notably Moscow. Apart from Maduro himself, his regime flunkies, the police and army who get paid high wages to stay loyal, there can’t be many people in Venezuela who would not welcome a bit of US intervention to get rid of a president who has destroyed the country’s economy since he came to power in April, 2013, through gross mismanagement, corruption and greed. Nearly eight million people have already fled the country, leaving behind their unsellable homes and businesses. Trump is not into nation-building. The American experience in Afghanistan demonstrated all too clearly that a country with a different culture and traditions cannot be transformed into a western-style nation just because a US-led coalition believes it’s the best answer. Trump is also supposed to be against wars, well wars that require American boots on the ground. So, it begs the question once again, what is the mission of this build-up of naval forces within striking distance of Venezuela? Does the commanding officer of the Gerald R Ford carrier strike force know what role he is supposed to play in the next few weeks? The options in front of Trump are said to include: comprehensive strikes within Venezuela of the known drug cartels’ strongholds, attacks on the military protecting Maduro, seizing the country’s oil fields, and going for Maduro directly, just like the US did in Panama in 1989/1990. More than 26,000 US troops swept in by helicopter and landing vessels to capture General Manuel Noriega, the country’s leader. Noriega like Maduro, was designated by Washington as a drug trafficking baron. Some of these options would require boots on the ground, whether special operations forces or Marines on the amphibious assault ships now off Venezuela. However, Trump is already being heavily criticised for the attacks on drug boats, albeit taking place in international waters. They are not justified under international maritime law, experts have said. The Trump administration has argued that the US is engaged in an armed conflict against drug cartels and that those killed were “unlawful combatants”. This was the phrase used by President George W Bush’s administration to justify the extra-judicial capture and detention in Guantanamo of suspected al-Qaeda terrorists, following 9/11. The Trump administration has been seeking advice from the Justice Department about the legality of attacking facilities in Venezuela associated with the drug cartels, as well as, potentially, a direct targeting of Maduro. Judging by leaks in Washington, it would seem the advice ws that the administration does not have legal justification for strikes on Venezuela. Officials were quoted as telling Congress that Trump was not currently planning to launch strikes inside Venezuela. If this is the case, then the arrival of USS Gerald R Ford and escorting warships presents Trump with a conundrum. Deploying a carrier from the Mediterranean via the Atlantic to the Caribbean Sea, a journey of around 2,700 nautical miles, is not done for fun. It’s a deliberate and provocative move, authorised by the president to send the most potent warning that the US means business. Maduro beware, was the message from the White House. This week the US Navy will have at least thirteen surface warships and a nuclear-powered submarine operating near Venezuela. Some of the warships and the submarine are armed with Tomahawk land-attack cruise missiles, the weapon system favoured by previous US presidents to carry out strikes without the need for sending troops. In addition to warships, the US has reactivated a Cold War era naval base in Puerto Rico, about 500 miles from Venezuela’s coast, and sent troops, F-35B stealth fighters, Marine Corps helicopters and heavy transport aircraft, as part of the military package for potential action against Venezuela. In recent days, Trump has had Nigeria as well as Venezuela on his mind, the former because of the continuing slaughter of Christians by Islamic terror gangs. This was when he threatened to send troops in “guns a-blazing”. In the case of Venezuela, the Tomahawk option might be seen as a more practical solution. There is intelligence evidence that the Venezuelan military plays a role in ensuring the successful trafficking of drugs out of the country. The biggest cartel, the Cartel de los Soles, is allegedly led by high-ranking members of the Venezuelan armed forces. Military facilities identified as being linked to the drug cartels could be targets for Tomahawks. The CIA which was given authority by Trump last month to launch covert operations in Venezuela, will no doubt have been helping to pinpoint potential drugs-linked installations. But will Trump go this far? Having deployed so much firepower to the Caribbean, is he going to give the order to launch strikes or will he listen to the Justice Department lawyers, counselling caution? The sudden announcement last month of the early retirement of Admiral Alvin Holsey, commander of Southern Command which overseas American operations in the South Caribbean and Latin America, suggests there may be growing concerns in the US military about what the commander-in-chief has in mind for Venezuela. BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER - AMAZON, WATERSTONES, TJ JONES, FOYLES

China's secret Area 51 base

In a scorched and sand blasted salt lake on the fringes of the Gobi desert, barely a month seems to go by without a new building going up and more tarmac being laid. It’s a busy time to be at Lop Nur, China’s top secret test base. Both civilian and military observers of satellite images of the facility, however, were startled by what they saw there in August and September. On one day of each month a stealth jet sat in the afternoon sun waiting for a flight at the base known as China’s Area 51, a base specifically chosen for its distance from prying eyes in the remotest corner of remote Xinjiang. The delta-winged J-36, tailless and stealth-designed, and the J-XDS (also known as J-50), similarly shaped but slightly smaller, have emerged as China’s sixth-generation tactical aircraft, not yet operational but preparing to compete with the best of America’s most advanced fighter jets. If the planes that fly from the base are in direct competition and possible confrontation with the Pentagon’s finest, Lop Nur shares many similarities with Area 51, erected from a barren lake bed in the Nevada desert. Close to where China has carried out nuclear tests, Lop Nur has what is thought to be the longest runway in the world, over three miles long. Run by the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF), it is considered to be where China’s home for the equivalent of US air force “black” (classified) test flights, often using the most advanced aircraft. The CIA’s U-2 spy plane and the US Air Force’s first stealth fighter, the bat-winged F-117 Nighthawk, were test flown at Area 51, for example. In Nevada, notices near the perimeter of Area 51 warn that it is a restricted base and that guards are authorised to use “deadly force” against trespassers. Lop Nur takes this a step further, warning that anyone trying to steal secrets “will be killed”. Like Area 51, it is prohibited to fly over Lop Nur. But both bases, can be photographed by satellites. Why, then, would the Chinese military have its latest jets out on the tarmac when they can clearly be seen? In the Cold War days, in the Soviet Union, for example, any top secret aircraft would be quickly housed in shelters when the next US satellite was due to fly overhead. Today, there are multiple eyes in low orbit, including many US and commercial satellites. “Leaving these aircraft out in the open means the Chinese don’t mind them being spotted by passing satellites. It’s a way of showing off what they’ve got, even though Lop Nur base could well be described as an Area 51,” Douglas Barrie, an aerospace specialist at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said. The J-36 and J-XDS are part of what the Pentagon says is China’s ambition to challenge US air power in the Indo-Pacific. The J-36 is believed by US intelligence to have been designed to coordinate accompanying unmanned aircraft (drones) in a swarming attack, similar in concept to the Pentagon’s “Loyal Wingman” programme in which AI-operated drones would fly alongside the US Air Force’s F-35 stealth fighters. Lop Nur is just one of several remote bases where the PLAAF is developing and testing a next-generation fleet of combat fighters, bombers and attack drones. The military parade in Beijing’s Tiananmen Square in September included an unmanned stealth fighter, the largest drone on display, although it could have been a mock-up rather than a fully-formed aircraft. While China’s most advanced drones under development are being tested at other bases, including Malan in the Xinjiang region, and at a high-altitude testing site at Ngari in Tibet, key flight tests of the new combat aircraft, J-36 and J-XDS, appear to be taking place at Lop Nur. “But there are plenty of other things which we know they are developing but have never been seen, such as a subsonic, low observable stealth bomber. That’s hidden away,” added Barrie. In the 1980s, the PLAAF was “a museum air force”, stuffed with old Soviet aircraft, he said. “So they’ve covered a lot of ground since then and now have military aircraft which are broadly comparable with the US, but the one thing they don’t have is combat experience. The last war they fought was in the 1970s in Vietnam.” However, China hasn’t totally caught up, particularly with carrier-borne aircraft. The PLAAF is developing the J-35 for its burgeoning carrier fleet. “China currently has a very old aircraft for their carriers, the J-15, which is terrible. It’s the heaviest and lowest thrust-to-weight-ratio carrier-borne aircraft in the world,” said Eric Heginbotham (CORRECT), a specialist in Asian security issues at MIT university in Cambridge, Massachusetts. “The US has the stealth F-35C on carriers, so we’re well ahead of China,” he said. “But what is concerning is China’s development of ISR (intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance) drones which can be used to spot US carriers and other warships and send back coordinates for their huge stock of anti-ship ballistic missiles,” Heginbotham added. “They would act as the eyes and ears for missile launches. We know the Chinese are developing these on a large scale. The US is ahead of the Chinese in terms of ISR drones, but they are very expensive. The Global Hawk long-range drone which has just been retired cost around $120 million a copy, and the new RQ-180 ISR unmanned vehicle which is still under development is going to cost even more.” BUY AQGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER WITH A STRONG RUSSIAN THEME. CHECK IT OUT ON AMAZON, ROWANVALE BOOKS AND IN WATERSTONES

The US grinds to a halt

How is it possible that the (still) most powerful country in the world is shuddering to a halt because Congress has failed to reach an agreement over Donald Trump's finance legislation and as a result the government has been shut down for more than five weeks. It's embarrassing, humiliating and disastrous for milllions of Americans. The Transportation Department has just announced that hundreds of flights are being cancelled because there are not enough air traffic controllers actually working. This will have a huge impact on the ecnomy, and yet Congress has still not budged, and Trump has other things on his mind. It could go on for weeks and weeks more unless Congress comes to its senses. How can this happen? It's the longest government shutdown in US history. What sort of legacy is that for Trump. He needs to devote his energies to getting this sorted out, unless for some reason he thinks a shutdown is a good way of getting rid of more federal workers. Ah, that has to be it. FORGET ABOUT EVERYTHING GOING WRONG AND BUY MY NEW SPY THRILLER, AGENT REDRUTH WHICH HAS BEEN HAILED AS A BRILLIANT PLOT WITH WONDERFUL CHARACTERS. BUY FROM AMAZON, ROWANVALE BOOKS, WATERSTONES ETC

Trump given options for ousting Nicolas Maduro

Donald Trump is weighing all the options for acting against Nicolas Maduro, the Venezuelan dictator/leader. Could the US president seriously be contemplating sending in US troops? It will clearly be on the shortlist of options, but more likely to be the last on the list, not the first. The White House national security officials who have drawn up the options know that Trump wants to avoid putting US boots on the ground, anywhere, except of course for American cities where crime is high. So I can't see him launching a war to oust Maduro. But, according to the The New York Times, Trump is trying to make up his mind which option to go for. He might think it's opportune to do something to divert attention away from all the things going wrong in the US, such as the five-week-old total government shutdown, and the federal workers being booted out of work. So, perhaps Trump will go for something spectaular to change the headlines in all the papers, not helped by the election of a young Asian/American Muslim as the next Mayor of New York. Perhaps a special forces helicopter-borne assault on the presidential palace in Caracas to seize Maduro as he sleeps. I can envisage something happening quite soon whatever it is. Trump said Maduros's regime is going to come to an end very soon. He must have something up his sleeve to make such a boast.

Dick "Darth Vader" Cheney, the most powerful US vice president

Dick Cheney, who has died at the age of 84 was probably the most powerful and most inflential vice president in America's history. Serving for eight years as President George W Bush's deputy, he was on occasions, more presidential than vice presidential. In an informal srrangement with Bush, Cheney took on the role of masterminding America's national security and international security policy. It was never an official, properly formulated agreement. But fronm the moment Bush agreed to let his vice president take on a role never donned by any of his predecessors, Cheney assumed one of the most powerful jobs in Washington. Rather than staying in the background, like previous and subsequent vice presidents, Cheney created his own power base and was the key person driving the US to take on aggressive stances towards the country's potential or suspected enemies. After the 9/11 terrorist atrocities by al-Qaeda, Cheney adopted what he called a One Per Cent doctrine which quickly became known as the Cheney Doctrine, in which the US reserved the right to take preemptive action against any enemies to stop them before they attacked the US, even if the evidece was very very low. It was his most controversial idea which George W Bush eagerly agreed to. Thus followed the toppling of the Taliban in Afghanistan in 2001 and the invasion of Iraq in 2003. The justification for the former was the Taleban's support for al-Qaeda terrorists operating from Afghanistan, and the latter for what Cheney insisted was evidence that Saddam Hussein had provided help to al-Qaeda for the 9/11 atrocity and that the Baghdad regime had secret stocks of weapons of mass destruction. Neither of the reasonings for the Iraq invasion proved to be accurate. But Cheney never regretted the role he played in bringing down Saddam Hussein. After a TV late show comedian referred to Cheney as Darth Vader, he didn't object. In fact, he loved the sobriquet. BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER, DESCRIBED IN REVIEWS AS A FANTASTIC READ. CHECK IT OUT ON AMAZON OR IN WATERSTONES.

So no nuclear test explosion after all, Mr President

The US Energy Secretary Chris Wright has made it clear that despite Donald Trump promising to restart nuclear tests, there won't actually be nuclear explosions involved. He said the tests would be sub-critical. What this means is that in laboratory tests, the plutonium atomic fuel would never get to a critical - ie detonation - stage but would get close enpough to evaluate the effectiveness of both the fissile material and the technological means to reach that critical state. But this sort of testing is already carried out at the special US laboratory in the Nevada desert, known as the Principal Underground Laboratory for Subcritical Experimentation (PULSE.)The scientists and engineers there simulate the conditions inside a nuclear weapon and then put it under pressure to a certain level. They use supercomputers and a huge X-ray machine called Scorpius which peer through the plutonium to see what's going on. Some of the plutonium is pretty old, perhaps 80 years old, so the X-rays show whether the fissile material is still functioning properly. Being the president of the United States, Trump will know all this. So it's not clear what he had in mind when he said the US was about to renew nuclear testing unless there is something he has not told us. I'm thinking super-classified intelligence which reveals Russia and China are redeveloping their old nuclear test sites and are planning to do what Trump says the US is going to do in the future. BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER PAPERBACK AS A CHRISTMAS GIFT. PUBLISHED BY ROWANVALE BOOKS AND AVAILABLE FROM AMAZON, WATERSTONES AND OTHER BOOKSHOPS.

Could US military intervene in Nigeria?

There is so much violence and killing going on in the world that if the US still sees itself as the global policeman, then the Trump administration is going to be excessively busy and involved in the next few years. Donald Trump is now talking about sending special forces into Nigeria "with guns a-blazing" to stop Islamic terrorists from killing Christians. He accuses the Nigerian government of failing to tackle action as Christians are being slaughtered. But what about Sudan? There, the horrific militia organisation called Rapid Support Forces (a misnomer if ever there was one) have been killing and raping on a huge scale while the Sudanese government forces have retreated. It is a terrible civil war and no one is intervening. The militia force is backed by the United Arab Emirates. Can Trump not compel the UAE to stop arming this ghastly genocidal militia? Meanwhile Trump thinks it's time to intervene in Nigeria to stop another appalling eruption of killings. This is the world we live in, violence is everywhere. The US cannot intervene every time. Trump has already sent a huge number of warships to the Caribbean to apply pressure on the corrupt Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro. Every week there seems to be some new action drama emanating from the White House. But even the mighty US can't do everything. Sending special forces into Nigeria, a huge country, is never going to stop the Islamist terrorists from prosecuting their murderous hatred.

JD Vance or Marco Rubio for 2029?

Donald Trump has cleverly put forward two names as his potential successor in 2029: JD Vance, his vice president, and Marco Rubio, his secretary of state and (still) national security adviser rolled into one. Both men have been making their pitch in recent weeks, not deliberately so, but to prove that they have the right stuff to be the next president. It's probably a little easier for Rubio to prove his credentials because with the two security jobs in bis hands, he is always in the news, whether it be about the war in Ukraine or the neoptiated settlement in Gaza. Rubio has been involved in all the big foreign policy crises from day one. Vance, as vice president, doesn't have a specific job to do other than to support Trump. This is always the problem for vice presidents. However, he recently went to Israel and was able to put in his pennorth about what should be happening to ensure the ceasefire lasts. He will no doubt be hoping to get more foreign trips to outshine Rubio. Of course, what Vance has going for him is that as vice president he is regarded as the natural sucessor to the president and will be several steps ahead of Rubio as a consequence. But they could be the two-ticket item in the next election, with Rubio as his running mate. But much will depend on whether the Trump Big Guy momentum is kept up over the next three years. If so, Vance and Rubio will probably clean up, leaving their Democratic rivals in the dust. HAVE YOU YET BOUGHT AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER, PUBLISHED BY ROWANVALE BOOKS? ALL REVIEWS SAY IT'S A BRILLIANT AND THRILLING READ.