Another year of war in Ukraine!

The Russian army has the manpower and weaponry to fight for another year in Ukraine, America’s top commander in Europe has warned. Despite suffering a huge toll of deaths and injuries - more than 200,000 - President Putin’s invasion force still enjoyed “strategic depth in manpower”, General Christopher Cavoli told the Senate armed services committee. The head of US European Command and supreme allied commander Europe said the number of Russian troops now in Ukraine exceeded the size of the force which crossed the border into Ukraine on February 24 last year. An estimated 150,000-200,000 troops invaded Ukraine. In more than 14 months of war, Cavoli said, Russia had lost only one warship – Moskva, the Black Sea Fleet flagship cruiser – and about 80 fighter aircraft and tactical bombers out of an air fleet of around 1,000. “[So] this war is far from over. I think [the Russians] can fight another year,” the general said. Moscow had addressed vulnerabilities exposed during the early stages of the war, he said. This had included poor logistics back-up for the advancing troops and armour. Countering reports that the Ukrainian military was running out of weapons prior to launching an expected counter-offensive against Russian-occupied positions in eastern and southern Ukraine, Cavoli said the US and allies had delivered 98 per cent of the artillery, tanks and armoured vehicles Kyiv had asked for. He revealed that 2,400 “grievously wounded” Ukrainian soldiers had been evacuated from Ukraine and were currently receiving medical treatment.

Who can be trusted in the Pentagon to access secrets?

The Pentagon had begun to implement a new “zero-trust policy” throughout the defence department which could have uncovered the leaker of hundreds of pages of classified documents. But the strategy was still four years away from being completed when the latest leaks drama broke. The policy which was grounded on the notion that no one could ever be 100 per cent trusted to keep secrets safe was in such an early stage that the relatively junior member of the Air National Guard intelligence branch accused of the leaks still had unrestrained access across a wide spectrum of highly classified material. Zero trust will not be fully implemented until 2027. The full scope of 21-year-old Jack Teixeira’s alleged document leaks has yet to be unravelled. But the FBI and US Justice Department have already found that the Massachusetts air national guardsman’s access to secrets was far wider than previously realised and that alleged leaks had been going on for at least a year. Many of the documents which appeared on the gaming website Discord came from the Pentagon’s joint staff intelligence directorate. But there were also classified documents from the CIA, the National Security Agency (NSA) involved in foreign signals intelligence interceptions, and the Defence Intelligence Agency (DIA). The abiding concern among the investigators is that many more documents may still appear on obscure websites. When Bradley (now Chelsea) Manning leaked more than 700,000 classified documents to WikiLeaks in 2010, it took months for all the secrets to be revealed in public. However, Manning leaked entire archives of classified documents. Despite the WikiLeaks exposures and the highly classified CIA and NSA documents leaked by Edward Snowden in 2013, it took until November last year for the Pentagon to announce a zero-trust strategy. “The whole point of zero trust is to never trust, always verify and assume a breach,” Don Yeske, the US Navy’s chief technology officer, told a conference on Wednesday. “You begin from the point of assuming your network has been compromised, and if it hasn’t been compromised that compromise is inevitable. Insider threats light up like a Christmas tree when that is your approach,” he said. Under the strategy, all users of classified material and their electronic devices have to be constantly evaluated. “That evaluation would have identified, I believe, a pattern of activity here where someone who’s a network administrator, someone who is an IT professional accessing this kind of information would have been questioned,” he said. The Pentagon is currently conducting a review of its document security policies. But accelerating the zero-trust strategy in which every person granted access to classified material is subject to regular checks and assessments would seem to be unavoidable.

Will Meghan ever return to Britain?

It's difficult to see any circumstances, certainly in the foreseeable future, in which Meghan, Duchess of Sussex and wife of Prince Harry, will decide she wants to pay a visit to Britain. I think she is now so immersed in her new life in California and so distanced from this country, both geographically and mentally, that I just can't imagine her arriving at Heathow, waving to the crowds and smiling at everyone. She must truly despise her husband's birth nation, or at least the Buckingham Palace lot and of course the British media. So, sadly, looking at it from Harry's point of view, he will never be able to come to Britain with his wife and children. If that is the case then it is truly tragic that we have come to this point. Harry used to be such a jolly fellow, liked by everyone, especially by the media. Even when he did stupid things like wearing Nazi insignia at some daft alcoholic party years ago he was kind of forgiven. He was a good guy. Now he is engaged in yet another court case again British newspapers. Whatever affection there was for him in the media has surely dissipated. All of this is really sad. Some say it's all Meghan's fault. But that is wrong. Harry is a grown-up, he fell in love and he has decided to go the way he has because of that love. That's not Meghan's fault, that's his decision. But what has soured everything is the hostile stand both Harry and Meghan have taken, in particular their denigration of the royal family. And that's why Meghan, especially her rather than Harry, will probably never be comfortable about coming back here.

The Xi Zinping and Volodymyr Zelensky chat show

A telephone call between the Chinese and Ukrainian leaders has been in the offing for some time but now it has actually happened. But did the one-hour conversation get anywhere? It sounds like Xi offered a bunch of platitudes such as: war is not the way to solve problems, talking and compromise is the only way forward, talking peace not fighting war is the only solution. All very fine and sensible but the platitudes leave out one thing. It was Xi's friend, Vladimir Putin, who launched the war, so the intervention by the for-ever China president should be directed at the Kremlin, not Kyiv. While it is better for China to get involved in the name of peace rather than backing Moscow all the way, there will be no hope for a settlement if Xi's idea of compromise and talk-talk is for Zelensky to give up the four regions supposedly captured by Putin's invasion troops, some of which have already been deoccupied. Zelensky has said a million times there can be no settlement that allows Putin to hold onto Ukrainian territory. I assume he told Xi that so he got it firmly in his head. Admittedly if there is to be a settlement Zelensky may have to consider giving up a bit of his country. But if he does then it means Putin wins and that can never happen. So Xi I suspect went away from his chat with Zelensky with the realisation that his 13-point plan to bring the war to an end is going nowhere!

Octogenarian Biden says four more years please

Finally Biden has officially confirmed he is running for president for another four years from 2024. In one respect he had no choice but to stand again. Had he come today to say he wasn't going to run, his final two years in the White House would have been a total waste of time and energy. He would have a become a lame duck president. Now that he has made it official, it's a relief both for the Democratic party who know for sure what it has to do - pull out all the stops for the sitting president and make sure he doesn't do anything unwise or stupid - and also for the Republican party because now it can concentrate on knocking Biden as often as possible to undermine his chances of beating their candidate. None other than Donald Trump of course. It was always going to be a Biden/Trump rerun. I have felt this for months and months, even while people in the US and elsewhere were saying Biden was too old to be a two-term president. I never had any doubt that Biden would go for it, despite the low rankings he has in opinion polls. His job now is to win to keep Trump out of the White House. That in itself is a challenge so desperately valid and important that surely all sensible American voters whichever way they normally vote will realise they have to vote Democrat in November 2024 to stop the country from going insane and anti-democratic. Trump's campaign cry will be MAGA - Make America Great Again. Biden's should be KTOOTOO - Keep Trump Out of the Oval Office.

Trump claims the US troop withdrawal from Kabul gave Putin ideas

Donald Trump has some cheek to blame Biden's chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021 for giving Putin the idea that the time was right for invading Ukraine. Trump after all gave away Afghanistan to the Taliban when he got them to sign a deal in Qatar which everyone except presumably Trump himself knew would have disastrous consequences. But Biden's administration made some fatal mistakes in the rushed troop withdrawal, especially his decision to leave no one in military uniform behind to maintain at least a semblance of security for the surrendering Kabul government. But Trump has a point, made during an interview with Fox News. The appalling scenes at Kabul airport when an Islamic State suicide bomber detonated his explosives in the midst of the crowds of desperate Afghans trying to leave the country will no doubt have been watched by Putin with a certain degree of satisfaction. But could it have inspired him to launch his invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 in the expectation that the war-weary US would do nothing? It's definitely possible. It was a huge gamble but he might have thought Biden would hesitate to defend Ukraine. So he went ahead only to be shocked, I expect, when Biden of all people rounded up America's allies and partners and pledged to help the Kyiv government defend the country's sovereignty for as long as it took. So much for Putin's gamble. His second gamble of course was to assume that the mighty Russian army - what used to be called the Red Army in the bad old days - would complete the Kremlin's mission and conquer Ukraine in a matter of days. Huge mistake. And Putin has been paying for his mistake ever since. He must be so angry with Biden. All his dreams shattered by Biden's determination to stand tough. So, yes I think Trump was right to suggest the Afghanistan debacle may have persuaded Putin to plot his invasion but, as I say, the former president cannot disengage hinself from the blame for the way America's failed campaign in Afghanistah came to such an abrupt and humiliating end.

Will Ukraine's planned counter-offensive work?

Ukraine's grand plan to launch a mighty counter-offensive and seize back Russian-occupied territory, perhaps even Crimea, is still awaited. The problem is, everyone, including the Russians of course, knows it is going to happen at some point soon. There is no element of surprise which is always so important in military strategy. What we do know is that the counter-offensive is going to involve German Leopard 2 tanks, British Challenger 2 tanks and American Bradley armoured fighting vehicles. The long-awaited US Abrams M1A1 battle tanks won't be ready for operations until the autumn, too late for Ukraine's big move to strike hard at the Russian positions. What is crucial for the Kyiv government will be the presence and usability of the Patriot anti-missile systems which have now arrived in Ukraine but are not yet combat-ready. I think Kyiv will wait unto the Patriots are fully deployed because without them the Ukrainian forces are going to be too vulnerable to Russian ground-attack aircraft and cruise missiles. We know, thanks to the leaked Pentagon documents, that Ukraine is running short of medium-range anti-air missiles. The Patriots will fill that gap. I don't think any Ukrainian commander will want to launch the counter-offensive without the Patriots to back up their troop advances. But with Patriots and the western tanks and American armoured fighting vehicles there is a good chance that the Ukrainian forces will be able to make serious inroads into the Russian defensive positions in the east and south. I doubt they will ever be in a position to drive all the Russian troops out of Ukraine but they could cause such heavy blows to the Russian occupied positions that Putin back home safely in the Kremlin might be forced to seek a settlement in order to hang on to whatever territory is left under Russian control. There is one exception to this. If Ukraine were to manage to seize back Crimea, unlikely though that is, that could force Putin to do something very dangerous, like turn to nuclear or chemical weapons. Putin cannot afford to suffer the humiliation of losing Crimea. It's a high-risk, dangerous moment in this Putin war.

So farewell the great Barry Humphries

Barry Humphries, one of the all-time great entertainers with his comic roles, Dame Edna Everage and slovenly Australian diplomat Sir Les Patterson. One of his funniest jokes was during a chat show with Michael Parkinson. He was appearing as Les Patterson. Parkinson asked him how Lady Patterson was doing. He replied that she was ok although she had rung from Australia to say that their dog appeared to have gone deaf because he wasn't responding to her calls. He advised her to go to a chemist to get some depilatory ointment because he knew their dog had too much hair in its ears. So Lady Patterson went to the chemist and asked him for some depilatory cream. The chemist wondered if the cream was for her face because if it was he warned her that it would make her face very sensitive for a few days and she should keep out of the sun, or if it was for her legs she wouldn't be able to walk comfortably for a day or so. Lady Patterson said: "It's actually for my Schnauzer." To which the chemist replied: "Well in that case you shouldn't ride a bike for a couple of weeks."

China's plot to hijack US satellites in wartime

The scale of China’s ability to target, disrupt and even capture America’s network of orbiting surveillance and communications satellites in time of war has been revealed in a leaked classified intelligence document. The development of Chinese anti-satellite technology has been aired by the Pentagon and the US intelligence services in the past. But the latest leaked report, with CIA markings, has underscored growing concerns about China’s focus on space war capabilities. The document is one of at least 100 allegedly leaked by Jack Teixeira, the 21-year-old member of the US Air National Guard in Massachusetts. He was arrested by the FBI last week and charged under the Espionage Act with the unauthorised removal, retention and transmission of classified national defence information. The CIA-stamped document dated this year refers to China’s ability to “deny, exploit or hijack” an adversary’s satellites, the Financial Times reported. The latest leak underlines fears in the Pentagon that there are still classified files yet to appear in the public domain which could damage national security by exposing US intelligence assessments of rival power’s war-fighting capabilities. One cyber weapon highlighted in the document involves an elaborate jamming system to confuse and ultimately neuter satellites by mimicking signals they are receiving from ground-station operators and causing a malfunction. This would enable China “to seize control of a satellite, rendering it ineffective to support communications, weapons or intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance systems". Although the leaked document does not contain classified information about how the US plans to counter China’s anti-satellite systems, it is no secret that the Pentagon, with its Cyber Command and Space Command, has been spending millions of dollars on confronting this threat, both from China and Russia. The US also has an advanced programme to develop sophisticated offensive cyber weapons and to improve defensive measures to protect satellites from attack by hardening the materials used in their construction. Like China and Russia, the US has the capability to hit an adversary’s satellite systems with missiles as well as electronic jamming technology. The UK also has advanced cyber weapon capabilities. However, last year the US was the first country to adopt a voluntary moratorium on the destructive testing of anti-satellite missile systems. Anti-satellite tests cause a massive cloud of debris in space. Russia was condemned when it carried out a test to destroy a defunct satellite in low orbit in December 2021. The US intelligence community’s annual threat assessment published last month said China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) was fielding “new destructive and non-destructive [jamming] ground and space-based anti-satellite weapons”. The ground-based weapons included “electronic warfare systems, directed energy weapons [lasers] and Asat [anti-satellite] missiles intended to disrupt, damage and destroy target satellites”. The PLA had also conducted orbital technology demonstrations which “prove China’s ability to operate future spaced-based counter-space weapons”. The US has the most comprehensive satellite capability in the world. Hundreds of military and intelligence satellites are used to communicate on encrypted channels, to hit enemy targets with precision strikes, to provide early warning of a nuclear attack, to spy on other nations’ communications and to help warships and fighter aircraft navigate. This is why China and Russia, and particularly the former, are investing so much in developing counter-space weapons to make US satellites vulnerable to attack.

It's all a lot of hou-ha about western special forces in Ukraine

I doubt even the Russians believe there are western special forces in combat mode in Ukraine. But ever since the leaked Pentagon document that claimed the Brits had 50 of them in Ukraine, and other countries, including the US, also had elite forces helping the Ukrainian military, the word has been going around that Nato is playing much more of a hands-on role in Ukraine than has previously been let on. I seriously doubt it. I think it has all been hyped up, not helped by the leaked document which was probably doctored to cause embarrassment. The Pentagon was actually transparent about the involvement of US military personnel in Ukraine. An official said months ago that a small number of Marines had been sent to provide security and protection at the US embassy in Kyiv, and also to keep a check on the billions of dollars of US arms being delivered to Ukraine to make sure they ended up in the right hands. Seems eminently sensible. So I don't think there are dozens of US Navy SEALS fighting up in the frontlines alongside Ukrainian special forces. And the same with Britain's SAS if they are there too. Their role, if there is one, would be to provide super protection for the limited number of British diplomats in Kyiv. So it's all a lot of hou-ha about very little.

China's acceleration towards superpower military status

The US is running out of time to keep ahead of China’s unstoppable war machine, America’s top commander in the Indo-Pacific has warned Congress. Admiral John Aquilino described Beijing’s rapidly growing navy, the spread of hundreds of silos under construction in northern China to house nuclear armed-ballistic missiles, and the doubling in production of fifth-generation stealth fighters . “China continues the largest, fastest, most comprehensive military build-up since World War II in both the conventional and strategic nuclear domains,” the commander of US Indo-Pacific Command (Indopacom) told the House armed services committee, “Conflict in the Indopacom area of operations is neither imminent nor inevitable. Nevertheless, we do not have the luxury of time, we must act now to maintain a free and open Indo-Pacific,” he said. He also highlighted as a rising threat the “no limits” strategic partnership between President Xi Zinping and President Putin. This had led to the Russian transfer of highly-enriched uranium to Beijing for developing weapons-grade plutonium for China’s expanding nuclear forces, he said. As the admiral gave the latest warning about China’s rapid march towards superpower military status, Beijing issued a statement condemning the US supply of up to 400 land-based Harpoon anti-ship missiles to Taiwan. “The military liaison between the US and Taiwan and the arms sales by the US to Taiwan seriously violate the one-China policy and the three Sino-US joint communiques,” Wang Wenbin, a spokesman for the Chinese foreign ministry, said. Under the one-China policy, the US recognises the People’s Republic of China (PRC) as the sole legal government of China but only “acknowledges” the Chinese position that Taiwan is part of China. However, Washington maintains unofficial relations with the Taipei government and supplies the island state with arms to defend itself. President Biden has on at least three occasions pledged that the US would go to Taiwan’s aid if Beijing tried to seize control of the island by force. Wang said the sale of Harpoons “severely harms China’s sovereignty and security interests and seriously threatens the peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait”. Looking at the wider threat for the whole Indo-Pacific region, Aquilino said “the most stunning of all” developments was the way the PLA rocket force had continued “to massively expand its arsenal of conventional and nuclear missiles, building hundreds of silos for nuclear missiles and fielding several hundred ballistic and cruise missiles”. “This almost certainly includes a large number of hypersonic missiles, some of which may be nuclear-capable,” Aquilino said. “Construction of silo fields across northern China, coupled with modern ballistic-missile submarines and the H-6N nuclear-capable, air-to-air refuelling bomber, underscore China’s focus on developing a survivable nuclear triad,” he warned. “The PRC has not declared an end goal nor acknowledged the scale of its nuclear force expansion,” he said. “[However] the PRC will likely possess at least 1,000 deliverable nuclear warheads by 2030 [echoing the Pentagon’s published estimate],” the admiral said. “This larger arsenal could provide the PRC with new options before and during a crisis or conflict to leverage nuclear weapons for coercive purposes, including military provocations against US allies and partners in the region,” he said, hinting at a likely strategy in the event of the US trying to defend Taiwan from a PLA invasion. Referring to China’s growing navy, he said Beijing had added 17 principal warships to its navy last year, including four guided-missile cruisers, three destroyers, five frigates, two attack submarines and a large amphibious assault ship. He predicted that the People’s Liberation Army Navy (Plan), currently with 350 “battle force ships”, would increase in size to 440 by 2030. Battle force ships are defined as aircraft carriers, submarines, surface combatants, amphibious warfare ships, combat logistics vessels and some support ships. By comparison, under current US Navy shipbuilding plans, the number of battle force ships would increase from 292 today to a maximum of 367 by 2052. The US still has far more carriers than China – 11 compared with China’s two in service and one new-generation carrier launched last year – but Beijing could have five by 2030. Beijing has pinpointed 2027 as the target for the PLA to deliver capabilities “needed to counter the US military in the Indo-Pacific and project power across the globe”. As part of the drive to meet this timeframe, the PLA had doubled production of the fifth-generation J-20 “Mighty Dragon” stealth fighter, with an estimated 150 now operational, and is developing a jet-engined supersonic drone. China also carried out 64 successful space launches last year which placed more than 160 satellites into orbit, expanding intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities. This compared with 55 space launches in 2021, Aquilino said.

Putin goes to Kherson

So Vladimir Putin and Volodymir Zelensky, hated enemies, were on the same soil today. Putin arrived by helicopter in the Kherson region in the south and then in eastern Ukraine to chat with commanders and troops. How Zelensky would love to have been tipped off by US intelligence about Putin's planned visit. But the US is careful with its intelligence. Even if it was known that Putin was planning a trip to Ukraine there is no way Zelensky would have been told. It's illegal for the US to target an elected head of state. So Putin was quite safe and well surrounded by Russian troops. It was claimed last May tht General Valery Gerasimov, the Russian chief of the general staff then and now also the overall commander for the war in Ukraine, was injured by shrapnel when he visited Kharkiv in the northeast. He supposedly suffered a wound in his leg and it was spread about that he had been deliberately targeted. But that seems unlikely. However, it was notable that when Putin arrived in Ukraine today he was not accompanied by either Gerasimov or Sergei Shoigu, the Russian defence minister. The Kremlin cited security reasons. You can imagine the Kremlin conversation. Going to a war zone is a risky business and Putin's security people would have advised against having all three VIPs in Ukraine at the same time. Hopefully Putin will have come away from his trip with some pretty sobering thoughts about the way his "special operation" in Ukraine is going.

Where will Prince Harry sit during the Coronation?

Much speculation is going on about where the powers-that-be at Buckingham Palace will decide to put Prince Harry during the service at Westminster Abbey. Next to his brother William? Very unlikely as they are not talking to each other. One row behind? Surely not because William would know that his brother is literally breathing down his neck, and Kate would be furious, athough Harry and Meghan sat in the second row for Queen Elizabeth's funeral. But relations are so strained I can't see that heppening again although of course Meghan won't be present. So the chances are Harry will be sat in one of the side aisles where he can cause no embarrassment or mischief. Probably, sitting amongst the Duchess of York's daughters. I'm assuming that the BBC will be under strict orders to focus their cameras on the King and Queen and the "working royals" and ignore as much as they can the looks being given by Harry from the sidelines. But most of us, and especially the tabloid photographers, will be itching for pics of a glum Harry. I'm afraid that's human nature. Never mind King Charles and his Queen all decked up in their finery, it's Harry who will be the Big Interest. Sorry Charles, but you invited him, so expect massive interest in your errant younger son.

John Kerry and his climate-change objectives

We haven't seen or heard much of John Kerry in the last few months. He holds one of the most important jobs in the Biden administration but where has he been? Well, he has made an apearance in Japan and has been speaking with some degree of satisfaction about the steps that have been taken over the last year to tackle global carbon emissions. But as he said they still haven't gone far enough and now he is talking about the likelihood that global warming will increase by 1.7 Celsium about the pre-industrial levels instead of the 1.5 C which it is at present. That sounds pretty impressive but every digit upwards, however small, is going to have a serious if not severe impact in some parts of the world. We already know and feel the climate getting hotter even in countries where the climate is normally relatively benign, like in the United Kingdom, so that extra 0.2 Celsius Kerry refers to will bring changes, none of which will be welcome. I like John Kerry, he always seems a figure of substance and I wish we could hear more from him becaue if the Republicans win the 2024 presidential election we could end up with a new president who doesn't believe in all this stuff about the dangers we are facing with climate change, ie Donald Trump God help us. Then all the good work achieved by Joe Biden and his climate-chamge envoy John Kerry will be wasted.

Mike Pompeo says no to 2024 election

Mike Pompeo, a very slimmed-down former US secretary of state and before that CIA director, has decided not to stand in the 2024 presidential election. A wise move on his part since the election is going to be only about one person and one thing. Trump and MAGA (Make America Great Again) Trumpism. On the Republican side at least there is going to be no room for anyone else and Pompeo has clearly realised that. So he will bide his time until 2028. So we've still got Nikki Haley in the running for the Republican nomination. Nice try, Nikki, but you have no chance. Then there's Mike Pence, ex-vice president but I feel an ex all the way. Can't see him making the grade against Trump. And numerous others, the grandest of whom is Ron DeSantis, governor of Florida. But I think he has slipped down the reckonings in recent weeks despite backing by the Rupert Murdoch empire. For me he doesn't look or sound right to be president. Not in 2024 anyway. So that basically leaves Trump whatever happens to him between now and November next year. But on the other side more and more people, well political commentators and some Democrats (not that many), are saying Joe Biden should think very hard about standing for another four years, especially after his performances in Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic where, despite his joy about returning to his Irish roots, he seemed often confused and his speechmaking haltering. He does walk funnily too and every time I watch him gingerly walking down the steps from Air Force One, I hold my breath and keep my fingers crossed. But he has pretty well said he wants to stand again. His last remark was that he will definitely stand but he is not yet ready to announce it. Hm!! That was a bit weird. If he has definitely made up his mind why doesn't he definitely announce it? The longer he waits the more doubters there will be in his country and around the world that he is capable of being pesident for a seond term. But I can tell you this for free, Joe. If you stand and beat Trump, the world, well most of it, will be so relieved, everyone will welcome you like a Messiah for another four years in the White House.

Why didn't the FBI spot the leaked documents on Discord?

The FBI has unrestricted power and legal authority to monitor social media platforms and chat rooms but still failed to spot the leaked Pentagon documents, a veteran special agent told The Times. The fact that months passed before the FBI became aware of the classified documents on Discord and other social media outlets has raised concerns about the agency’s ability to keep watch on public and private internet sites that might include breaches of national security. Michael German who was an undercover FBI special agent for 16 years said it was extraordinary that the first people to knock on the door of the suspected Pentagon leaker were reporters from the New York Times and not members of the federal law enforcement agency. It was several hours later that the FBI turned up in force at the house in Dighton, rural Massachusetts and arrested 21-year-old Jack Teixeira, an IT specialist in the intelligence wing of the state’s Air National Guard. “FBI authority to monitor social media platforms was expanded significantly after the 9/11 terror attacks in 2001. There is no limit on the FBI scouring social media activity although the rules are more complicated when dealing with private forums,” German told The Times. German specialised in domestic terrorism and covert operations during his career with the FBI between 1988 and 2004, spending most of his time as an undercover special agent in Los Angeles, Boston, Seattle and Atlanta, infiltrating violent gangs on the radical right. He is now a fellow at the New York-based Brennan Centre for Justice. The FBI rulebook known as the “domestic investigations and operations guide (DIOG)” was further updated after the attack on the Capitol on January 6, 2021 and has specific sections in an appendix on how monitoring of social media forums can be carried out. “The FBI employs private companies to do widespread social media checks under contracts worth millions of dollars but often they seem to focus on protest groups, like environmental and political activists,” the former special agent said. There was plenty of evidence in social media about the planning for the assault on the Capitol leading up to the attack, and yet the authorities appeared unprepared for what happened, he said. “Either the contracted companies were looking at the wrong things or the FBI ignored them,” he said. Prior to launching an investigation on a particular social media platform or chat room, the FBI carries out an “assessment” of the potential suspicious activity. This could be based on an inside informant warning of activity that could be classed as covering national security, terrorism or criminal actions. In the case of the leaked Pentagon documents there appears to have been no FBI assessment underway that could have led to the launch of an investigation into a suspected leak of classified material on the Discord forum. “The challenge was that the documents were originally contained in a private forum which are harder to monitor but still can be done under the DIOG rules,” German said. A court order is required for recording private real-time communications on a restricted forum. In appendix L of the DIOG guidelines, the sensitivity covering monitoring of private chat rooms is underlined by the careful wording of the rules for FBI agents. “There are many real-time online forums that involve many people communicating simultaneously (eg chat rooms). While employees [of the FBI] are cautioned against recording communications not pertinent to the investigation, where feasible, it may not be possible to selectively record comments not pertinent to the investigation that have been made by other participants,” the appendix says. In such circumstances, FBI agents are obliged to review the recordings and redact or minimise what they feel is not pertinent, especially when they disclose the contents to a third party. The challenge for the FBI even under the more liberal guidelines authorised after 9/11 and the January 6 incident is that all agents have to act within the constitution which governs the sanctity of free speech and personal liberty. The DIOG rules state that agents must “ensure that civil liberties and privacy are protected through the investigative process”, and that “the least intrusive” methods are used. However, the guidelines recognise that FBI agents cannot just wait for leads to come and may have to take preemptive action if there are suspected criminal or national security threats. Early intervention is justified for the “prevention of criminal or national security violations before they occur”. The rules set out in the DIOG would have allowed the FBI to spy on the Discord forum had they received prior intelligence of an intention to place classified documents on the site. But the leak took everyone, including the FBI, by surprise.

FBI close in on document leaker suspect

So Biden was right when he said in Ireland that investigators were getting close to identifying the person responsible for leaking more than 100 classified documents to a social media platform. According to the New York Times the suspect is a 21-year-old member of the intelligence wing of the Massachusetts Air National Guard. It's just bizarre that comparative youngsters are given access to such highly classified documents. And why would a national guardsman, if it is him, need to have access to documents which are supposed to have been drawn up for the benefit of senior military officers and Pentagon civilians involved in dealing with the war in Ukraine? Ok, this bloke identified by name by the newspaper, worked for the intelligence branch of the National Guard but is he intimately engaged in advising/assessing/analysing secrets related to the war? Perhaps he is or was. But this revelation, if accurate, yet again underlines the risks entailed in letting so many thousands of people have access to top secret material. You would have thought that lessons might have been learnt from the Bradley Manning story. Private First Class Bradley (now Chelsea) Manning was working for an intelligence unit of the US Army in Iraq when he handed over more than 700,000 classified documents to WikiLeaks. When he was arrested in May, 2010, he was a mere 22. So it really is a question of, here we go again.

So Harry will be at the Coronation! Meghan stays away

I wonder whether Meghan wanted husband Harry to go to his father's Coronation on May 6 without her. The fact that she is going to stay at home in California while Harry plays a role of some sort in King Charles III's Big Day says a million things about the restrained if not stained relationsip between the Duke and Duchess of Sussex and the Royal Family. Meghan is so out of it that I guess even she would have realised that her presence alongside Prince Harry at the Coronation would not have been in anyone's interest. So Harry goes alone and I can already see the pictures that will be taken by the world's press of a prince all on his own, out on a limb, and probably looking miserable. He surely would have wanted Meghan by his side, but did Buckingham Palace puts its foot down or was it totally Meghan's decision. Either way, it was probably the best solution. She has the excuse of being needed at home with the children, although under normal circumstances she and the kids should have been playing a role. But being a California-based duchess, normal is not a word that can be used. I bet the paparazzi organisations will be desperate to have pics of Meghan at home while Harry is in the Coronation procession. So even though she won't be there, the Meghan-left-behind story will be almost as big an event as the Coronation itself.

The hunt for the Pentagon leaker

The United States is a victim of more cyber attacks than any other country in the world. It also suffers from often highly damaging leaks of classified information. The combination has given the American counter-intelligence community a headache of vast proportions, especially as technology and espionage have grown exponentially in recent years. Finding the culprit responsible for putting top secret documents into the public domain is a thankless task for leak investigators because potentially thousands and sometimes tens of thousands of people in sensitive jobs have access to such material on a daily basis. The investigations by the Pentagon and the US Justice Department into the leak of more than 100 highly classified documents about the war in Ukraine as well as spying operations against allies including South Korea and Israel are focused on exposing the leaker before more secrets appear on social media. Stealth, not cyber hacking, is at the heart of the investigation. Around 1.3 million US government employees and contractors have access to documents marked top secret. But that covers the whole gamut of government departments and agencies. In this case the dissemination of material would have been more restricted; and yet the investigators still have the prospect of interrogating several thousand military and civilian employees. The Pentagon’s Joint Staff alone from where the leaked documents originated is compromised of around 800 civilians and 1,200 service members from the army, navy, Marine Corps, air force, national guard and coast guard. Their job is to support General Mark Milley, chairman of the joint chiefs of staff. However, there will be clues, and narrowing down potential suspects might not be too complex. All the documents appear to be distributed printouts of briefing notes. They were then photographed and folded in haste judging by their creased appearance, before being removed, possibly in a pocket or bag. This indicates the leaker had access to paper copies of the documents rather than extracting them electronically. This would suggest carelessness on the part of those responsible for disseminating the classified documents. Under normal protocols, documents marked top secret would be held electronically in dedicated computer systems located in rooms where it would be forbidden to enter with cameras or mobile phones. The documents were then sent to a social media platform called Discord and appeared online last month. There will be a paper trail that could be traced to a particular department or office or even to an individual. Investigators will also look at motivation as well as the modus operandi of the leaker. Staff will be questioned about colleagues who may have uttered even the slightest criticism of US policy towards Ukraine. For US allies, especially the four other members of the exclusive Five Eyes intelligence network -Britain, Australia, Canada and New Zealand – the latest airing of classified information, much of it gleaned from signals intelligence interceptions, will once again raise concerns about America’s vulnerability to insider leaks. Ten years ago Edward Snowden, a former technical assistant with the CIA and ex-contractor for the National Security Agency (NSA), removed tens of thousands of sensitive files from the NSA and made them public, generating worldwide embarrassment for Washington.

Washington worried about Iran attack plot

Breaking with normal secrecy customs, the US has announced the presence of a nuclear-powered guided-missile submarine in the Middle East, following intelligence warnings of imminent Iranian attacks on Israeli cargo ships in the Gulf. USS Florida, an Ohio class submarine armed with 154 Tomahawk land-attack cruise missiles and equipped with special operations underwater vehicles, came through the Suez Canal on Friday and is now acting as a deterrent to Iran in the region. Intelligence reports have indicated that Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is planning to use armed drones to attack Israeli shipping in retaliation for the recent strikes by Israel against targets in Syria in which two IRGC members were killed. The US Navy aircraft carrier, USS George H Bush, has also had its tour of operational duty in the region extended after attacks last month on American troops in northern Syria which killed a US contractor and injured a dozen troops. Iran was blamed. The Tomahawks on the submarine have a range of more than 1,000 miles. USS Florida is one of four former strategic nuclear ballistic-missile deterrent boats that were converted into Tomahawk-armed submarines. The official announcement of its presence was unusual because the location of submarines is generally classified. The Gulf is one of the world's busiest shipping lanes. "Recent events, including the strikes in Syria and public threats made by Iran against merchant vessels, prompted us to remind regional mariners to remain vigilant," Commander Timothy Hawkins, spokesman for the US 5th Fleet, said.

Pope calls for peace. Not much hope of that

The Pope, past ones and the present one, always calls for peace at Easter. It's right and proper and expected. But no one ever listens. Just look around the world. Russia's war in Ukraine is carrying on regardless with thousands being killed every week, Israel and Palestinians are at it again, Iran is spoiling for war like never before, and China is carrying out provocative and hostile military exercises around Taiwan to remind the breakaway republic that the might of the PLA is just waiting to smash them all to smithereens. At least the ceasefire in Yemen is holding but for how much longer? Meanwhile, the dark side of the world where terrorists, Islamic insurgents/militia and generally hateful and hating groups lurk and kill - al-Qaeda, Isis, al-Shabaab to name just three - are still around despite every attempt by the United States to remove them from this Earth. There is peace in a Sussex meadow or a hilltop in Montana or in a hammock overlooking a bay in Thailand or under a beach umbrella in the Maldives but in so many parts of this globe there is fighting and death and suffering and malnutrition and thirst and misery. Sorry, Pope.

Could Ukraine win back Crimea?

The great Ukrainian counter-offensive which is now being plotted and planned could deliver a stunning blow to Putin. What if it involves an assault on Crimea to retake the peninsula seized and annexed without a fight by Putin in 2014? This must surely be Zelensky's dream. If he can grab back Crimea, Putin would face the gravest defeat since the first few weeks of the invasion of Ukraine when his troops failed to take control of Kyiv. The fall of Crimea could spell the end of Putin's war and perhaps of Putin himself. By all accounts Putin realises the danger and his generals have been building up defences along the beaches of Crimea to deter an amphibious landing. But Ukraine has one huge advantage. Zelensky and his generals are getting daily satellite intelligence updates from the US, so they know exactly what Putin's troops in Crimea are up to and where they are putting their defences. Crimea is stuffed with Russian troops, artillery and air defence systems, but do the troops have the will power and motivation and skill to withstand a massive Ukrainian assault? I believe this is what Kyiv plans to do because retaking Crimea would be the ultimate blow to Putin's self-esteem. He regards Crimea as the jewel in his expanionist dreams and without it his whole strategy will be ruined. It's going to be the biggest battle of the war so far.

The disastrous withdrawal of US troops from Kabul: Biden admits mistakes but no regrets

President Biden has admitted that he waited too long before ordering the evacuation of American troops and thousands of vulnerable Afghan civilians from Kabul when the Taliban were on the point of seizing back control of Afghanistan’s capital. Biden and his national security team made the decision to leave the evacuation to the last moment because they were worried a premature withdrawal would undermine the confidence of the Afghan army and lead to a collapse of the Kabul government. The admissions appear in a published White House review of the August 2021 evacuation which led to scenes of chaos and violence, ultimately opening an opportunity for an Islamic State suicide bomber to detonate a device which killed 170 civilians and 13 US service personnel. The withdrawal of US and coalition troops as the Taliban arrived in force provoked the very collapse which the Biden administration had hoped to avoid or at least delay. At the time of the evacuation which involved hundreds of flights out of Kabul international airport Biden described the military withdrawal mission as an “extraordinary success”. However, in the light of the disastrous suicide bombing and the arrival of the Taliban in Kabul after an unexpectedly rapid advance, the president ordered a “top to bottom” review of the withdrawal. The White House document detailing the findings revealed that the sober experience of the Kabul evacuation has forced the Biden administration to change its policy for any future withdrawal mission. Evacuations from foreign countries in the future will be carried out as soon as it becomes clear security is deteriorating, putting American lives at risk. “We now prioritise earlier evacuations when faced with a degrading security situation,” the White House report said. “We did so in both Ethiopia and Ukraine, “ the report said. US troops had been participating in training programmes with Ukraine. But no US military were present in Ukraine when the Russians invaded on February 24 last year; and during armed conflict in Ethiopia, the US authorised the voluntary departure of non-emergency government employees and family members. In the months leading up to the August 2021 evacuation in Afghanistan, the Biden administration chose “ not to broadcast loudly and publicly about a potential worst-case scenario unfolding in order to avoid signalling a lack of confidence” in the Afghan government. The report is critical of the decisions taken when Donald Trump was president. Trump had ordered negotiations to begin with the Taliban in Qatar for an end to US involvement in the war. A 12-page summary of the review says Biden was “severely constrained” by Trump’s decisions. “President Biden’s choices for how to execute a withdrawal from Afghanistan were severely constrained by conditions created by his predecessor,” the report said. When Biden became president, “the Taliban were in the strongest military position that they had been in since 2001, controlling or contesting nearly half of the country”. “Clearly we didn’t get it right,” John Kirby, National Security Council spokesman, said. But he said the purpose of the report was not to assign accountability but to learn lessons for the future. The Trump deal signed on February 29, 2020, committed the US to a full pull-out of troops by May 2021. In return, the Taliban made a number of commitments, including withdrawing all support for al-Qaeda in Afghanistan. It is now accepted the Taliban failed to honour their commitments. Biden extended the withdrawal timetable to August, 2021 but stuck with Trump’s negotiated agreement to evacuate all troops, despite appeals from top US military commanders to leave 2,500 troops in Afghanistan as a safety precaution. The White House report blamed the Trump administration for striking a deal with the Taliban without a comprehensive withdrawal plan. The speed of the Taliban’s advance into Kabul took the Biden administration by surprise, even though the intelligence services had been warning of the risk of a potential collapse of the Afghan government. Kirby praised the US military for their actions in orchestrating the largest airborne evacuation of non-combatants in history during the chaos of Kabul’s fall to the Taliban.

Macron's state visit to Beijing a waste of time

Emmanauel Macron went to Beijing thinking he could persuade Xi Zinping to push Moscow to end the war in Ukraine. All he got was a handshake, the briefest of smiles and a load of platitudes. No surprise there. The Chinese president isn't interested in trying to broker a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine and even if he was whatever he came up with wouldn't be agreed by President Zelensky because the Ukrainian leader won't want any deal that involves giving up land to Moscow. Xi likes to think of himself as a global player but in fact all he is is a communist boss who wants everyone to be communists like him. He is not interested in being an altruistic peacemaker. He has tied himself to Putin, so he is the last person in the world who should be asked to broker peace between Moscow and Kyiv. I don't know what Macron was thinking. Certainly Zelensky doesn't want Macron or any other European leader to act on his behalf. As far as he is concerned his soldiers will do what's necessary to end the war and he doesn't need Macron to plead with Xi to make Putin see sense, as the French president put it. Putin will never see sense. He didn't invade Ukraine for a bit of extra territory in the east. He wants the lot. So whatever Macron or any other leader puts forward, Zelensky will pursue the war until Russia has no troops left in Ukraine capable of fighting. It's as brutal as that. A Pentagon official said the other day that the Russian loss of life in Ukraine was now "devastating". There will come a point when the slaughter is so overwhelming that Putin will have no one else to turn to. More mobilisations will be senseless. There will never be a peace deal in Ukraine. It's just not possible. Death and exhaustion will bring this war to an end but there will be no peace. And no victory.

Trump's future address: White House or federal prison

It is the most extraordinary moment in the history of the United States. Donald Trump looked angry, can I say almost frightened, after his appearance in court yesterday, facing much more serious charges than we had been led to believe. And there could be a whole lot more once special counsel Jack Smith has finished his investigations into the January 6 incitement allegation and the removal of classified documents to his home. But because this is Trump and not an ordinary run-of-the-mill politician, I don't think it's absurd to predict two possible options for his future. Either the drama and outrage and sympathy will launch Trump back into the White House in November 2024 or he will be required to spend a lot of time in one of the federal prisons. There is much talk in the Washington papers that voters may now decide they have had enough of Trump and will start, or at least Republican supporters, to look elsewhere for their champion. Don't believe a word of it. Trump is not going away and if he is convicted whenever the trial on the current charges is held next year, January or later, but not sent to prison, it will probably give him the biggest boost in supporters across the country. Under such circumstances he will move so far ahead of his Republican rivals that he will win the nomination with the biggest landslide in history, and then he will overwhelm Joe Biden. And if the trial on fraud charges relating to the hush money paid to Stormy Daniels and others collapses and he is found not guilty, he might as well be given the keys to the White House straightaway. BUT if the more serious charges are levelled against him, in particular the charge of incitement to cause that appalling violence during the assault on Capitol Hill on January 6 2021, and he is convicted before November 2024 there is no way he can be given the keys to anywhere because the keys will be in the hands of his jailors. It is said that Trump could still be president from a prison cell. That has to be nonsense. Of course he can't run the country locked up in a jail. So as the headline says, Trump will win the White House or be chucked into jail.

Never ending war. US still striking Isis in Syria

In the latest strike against Isis in northern Syria, the US has killed one of the top commanders who was suspected of planning attacks in Europe. The precision strike targeted Khalid 'Aydd Ahmad al-Jabouri who had been closely monitored as a leading figure in Isis in northwest Syria where the Islamic militants still retain a significant presence. Although no further details were released by US Central Command, the strike took place yesterday (Mon) and would have involved either an armed drone or fighter aircraft. In a statement General Michael "Eric" Kurilla commander of Centcom said al-Jabouri "was responsible for planning Isis attacks into Europe and developing the leadership of Isis' network." He said Isis continues to represent a threat to the region "and beyond" . "Though degraded the group remains able to conduct operations within the region with a desire to strike beyond the Middle East," Kurilla said. The significance of the latest attack by US forces is the intelligence that Isis leaders have been plotting to extend their operations to European targets. It's one of the reasons why the US still has about 900 troops deployed in Syria. The US military controls a base at al-Tanf in a remote area near the borders of Syria, Jordan and Iraq. There are also troops in parts of northeastern Syria controlled by the US-supported Syrian Democratic Forces. The US has kept up a relentless targeting programme against Isis and al-Qaeda members in both Syria and Iraq. Multiple strikes have killed members of an al-Qaeda offshoot called Horas al-Din in Idlib province, northern Iraq. In February a US drone strike killed two militants identified as Horas al-Din members, although one of them might have been a senior figure in Isis. Last month an American helicopter raid in northeast Syria killed Hamza al-Homsi, an Isis leader. Four American servicemen and a working dog were wounded. Also last month an American contractor was killed and five US servicemen and another contractor were injured after an unmanned suicide drone struck a maintenance facility at a coalition base near Hasakah in northeast Syria. The drone was of Iranian origin. A series of US strikes were carried out against strongholds affiliated with Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, another serious player targeting US coalition forces in the region. Centcom said no civilians were killed or wounded in the attack that ended in the death of al-Jabouri. A recent UN Security Council report underlined the threat still posed by Isis. It said Isis was using "new technologies" in a "sophisticated and prolific" manner. There is a new generation of Isis leaders operating in Syria and in Iraq. US Joint Special Operations Command and the intelligence services are trying to monitor the changes in leadership and operational techniques. "We have significantly defrauded this group's capability but it retains the ability to inspire, direct, organise and lead attacks in the region and abroad," Kurilla told the US armed services committee in March. Of particular concern are the 10,000 Isis fighters in detention facilities throughout Syria, as well as 20,000 in Iraq. About 5,000 of the detainees in Syria are held at a prison facility in Hasakah. In January last year more than 1,000 escaped although the majority were recaptured by the Syrian Democrat Forces (SDF) who run the detention centre. An SDF official has referred to the 5,000 detainees in Hasakah as a "ticking time bomb". In addition there are more than 30,000 children at the al-Hol refugee camp in northern Syria, many of whom are being indoctrinated to become the next generation of Isis fighters.

Come on Biden make your decision about four more years

With all the fuss going on about Trump and all the other Republicans spending their waking hours wondering whether to challenge him for the nomination, it's about time Joe Biden made up his mind and declared one way or the other. If it's yes he will stand then the Democratic party can get on with backing him to the hilt and providing a huge contrast with the Republicans who will from now on be bickering between themselves all the way to November 2024. If he has decided not to stand then it will give time for the party to sort themselves out and build a new campaign to keep the White House. Biden is either dithering or he has made up his mind and is waiting for what he thinks will be the most opportune moment. I think he should go for it now. Well not today. But perhaps on Wednesday after Trump has appeared in court and been charged with multiple business fraud offences. I can't think of a better time for the Democrats to stride forward and let the nation know what their choices are for 2024. At the moment I suspect most of the country is thinking Biden is dithering because he really doesn't know whether he is up for another four years. If that's the case, then tell the nation and let Kamala Harris et al start building their campaigns.

Trump plans to milk his appearance in court

Soon after appearing in a Manhattan court on Tuesday, Donald Trump plans a big speech from his home in Mar-a-Lago. This is the way it's going to be from now on. Every time there's a move against him, either by the Justice Department or by individual prosecutors, the former president is bound to grab maximum publicity by demonstrating to his supporters how it's him versus the Washington establishment. It's a bit like George Bush's "You're either with us or against us" warning after his speech describing Iran, Iraq and North Korea as his axis of evil. In Trump's case he will be looking no further than the United States of America. His axis of evil will consist of anyone in the country who fails to support him. However, there is a new name to conjure with now, Asa Hutchinson, former governor of Arkansas. He has indicated he plans to run against Trump for the Republican nomination. I guess with the sort of publicity Trump is going to get over the next 18 months, Hutchinson's voice will be drowned out. But you never know, if he makes any headway at all it will be on the basis that he can provide leadership not besmirched by scandal, indictments and other controversial issues. A leadership of decency. It just might make inroads into Trump's "to hell with you all" approach but I wouldn't put good money on it.

The Trump circus comes to town. Beware, Big Apple.

Very helpfully the Trump campaign team has revealed the former president's itinerary prior to his appearance in court in New York on Tuesday. The Big Days will be Monday and Tuesday, so watch out Big Apple, these two days are going to cause maximum madness and chaos. Trump plans to leave Florida on his private plane bound for JFK and then motorcade into New York to stay the night in his penthouse suite at Trump Tower. It will be like when the Beatles turned up in New York. The world and his daughter gathered to gawp and gaze and shout. As he looks down from his penthouse Trump will no doubt gain huge satisfaction to see his fans out en masse to support him. And then on Tuesday morning he will motorcade to the district court in Manhattan surrounded by police motorbike protection for his appearance before the district judge to be told what charges he faces. It's going to be the wildest of wild moments. Good luck, New York police, with keeping order.