Deterrence isn't working any more

The sight of an American aircraft carrier battle group steaming offshore used to be a pretty credible deterrent to any state or militia planning to cause mayhem in a region. But no longer. The US Navy is in the eastern Mediterrranean and Red Sea in full glory, backed by a few other navies on a much smaller scale, including Britain's, but the rockets and missiles and drones keep coming. The Houthis in Yemen and the various other Iran-backed militia around the region operating under the umbrella of the so-called Axis of Resistance, armed and funded by Tehran, couldn't care less about the superpower on their doorstep. There has been retaliation by the US and Britain against Houthi missile sites and various leaders and foreign ministers, including Lord Cameron, the UK foreign secretary, have declared boldly that the strike-backs were intended to send a strong signal to Tehran. But Tehran and its proxy forces have just laughed in tbeir faces. Strong signal? What strong signal? It has made no difference. This is a seriously worrying moment for the US and its western coalition partners. If aircraft carriers and retaliatory strikes are not deterring these Islamic militia from carrying on with their deadly attacks, what else will? Sanctions have achieved very little in the past. Look at Russia, the West has sanctioned Moscow with everything since the invasion of Ukraine and yet the war goes on and Putin has the firepower to last for ever it seems. So it looks like the Axis of Resistance is going to ignore all the warnings from Washington, certainly while Israel is still at war with Hamas in Gaza.

Iran is anxious to avoid a war with the US

For all its bravado and outrageous aggression through its multiple proxy forces it likes to call the Axis of Resistance, Iran is in no position to fight a full war with the United States and knows it. This is why Tehran has been desperately pleading it had nothing to do with the drone strike on the US outpost in Jordan which killed three soldiers and injured more than 30 others. Whether the denial is true or just a plain lie, it shows the ayatollahs want to muddy the waters for Joe Biden, to make him decide aganst attacking Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps targets in Iran just in case they weren't behind the deaths. Basically, whether Iran actually plotted to kill American soldiers or not, their fingerprints are all over the drone attack. They provide the weapons for all these Islamic militia groups and are probably supplying the intelligence to make sure their proxy forces know what to hit. There's an Iranian warship in the Red Sea which has intelligence equipment on board. So Biden would be in his rights to conclude that Iran was to blame for the deaths of the three Americans and should be punished. But I seriously doubt he will authorise the launching of 100 Tomahawk cruise missiles at IRGC facilities in Iran, as someone in US Congress has been recommending. This is Joe Biden, not Donald Trump, although it is election year and the president will not want to be accused of being soft on Iran!

Middle East war spreading and spreading

Three US soldiers killed and 25 injured at a remote outpost on the Jordan/Syria border! The war in the region is spreading its tenctacles. The militia responsible for the kamikaze drone attack were backed by Iran. Is Iran deliberately trying to create a full-scale war in the Middle East? This is the first time US soldiers have been killed since Israel began its retaliatory war against Hamas in Gaza and it could provoke President Biden into ordering a strike on Iran itself. Iran is behind all the bad stuff happening right now across the Middle East and perhaps it's time to give them a lesson in return. They are getting away with too much, firing up and arming the Houthis in Yemen and doing the same with their own proxy militia in Iraq and Syria. The deaths of three US soldiers could be the turning point and a dangerous moment in the region. If Biden doesn't respond he will be seen as weak, if he overrreacts and there are strikes on Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps facilities in Iran, it could lead to the wider war which the president has been tring to avoid. Iran, on the other hand, has done everything it can to stir up a wider war. Now it seems almost inevitable.

Does Putin really want a world war?

A lot of important, well-qualified people mow seem to think that Vladimir Putin is planning to invade Europe and to take on Nato, probably in the next five to ten years. I assume that some of those making this warning, such as the head of the British army, General Sir Patrick Sanders, are basing their predictions on intelligence which reveals exactly what Putin is thinking and plotting. With no intention of being disrespectful to all these important experts, I seriously believe this to be alarmist nonsense. Putin invaded Ukraine nearly two years ago and is stuck, unable to claim any sort of victory. All the Russian troops have successfuly proved is that they are, eventually, good at building massive defences and firing long-range missiles from safe locations. They have not proved combat ability or logistical efficiency or even in many cases a willingness to fight. The British army is to be reduced to a mere 72,000 soldiers by 2026, and some of our warships have no crews, and the Royal Marines may be disbanded and our two aircraft carriers still have insufficient numbers of fighter aircraft on board. But that doesn't mean Russia is plotting to invade Poland or the Baltics, or, heaven forfend, the United Kingdom. We don't need a "citizens' army" to fight off invading Russian troops for goodness sake. Putin is stuck in Ukraine, losng tens of thousands of soldiers and ruining his economy with the need to build up production of missiles and tank shells. Dare I say it, it's almost in western interests for the war in Ukraine to carry on for ever because it will keep Putin out of mischief. But even so, there is no way Putin can believe he has a good chance of grabbing the Baltic countries. So all this talk of Russia attacking Nato is silly.

Kamala Harris needs to raise her profile by a magnitude of ten

If, as seems to be true, there's a growing disaffection among young voters in the US over the venerable age of the two most likely candidates for the November election, it should be encumbent on both Joe Biden and Donald Trump to focus much more on their chosen vice president running-mate. But, more specifically, Biden should be upping the profile of his running-mate Kamala Harris. If Biden wins the election but is forced for one reason or another to step down, say, half way through his presidency, voters are going to want to feel confident that his Number Two would be able to take over seemlessly and be a strong president. At the mment I doubt there are many Americans who feel like that about Kamala Harris, mostly because her political profile has been so low, almost limbo-low, that they don't really have much idea how good or effective she would be as a shoe-in president. I suspect that a lot of voters will have this in mind if they enter the polling booth with the intention of voting Democrat. With Trump it's not such a big issue. He's a few years younger than Biden and never has a photograph of him stumbling down the stairs from an airplane or wandering off a stage not knowing which way to go. He will choose someone younger than him as his running-mate but he won't even contemplate stepping down prematurely if he wins the White House and, say, falls ill. But for Biden, now in his 80s, age is always going to be a big issue So, step forward, Kamala and show the nation what you are made of.

Nikki Haley on a lonely path

She's right to keep going, provided her donors stick with her, but Nikki Haley is now going to get the full force of Donald Trump's sarcasm and bitter wit as he marches foward to the next primaries and caucuses. It's going to be a lonely path for her, as both Trump and Joe Biden settle down for the real race, a rerun of the 2020 election. She might win something along the way but statistically and realistically, her campaign for the White House is over. But as so many things could change that she believes it makes sense to fight on. Her winning the nomination because Trump falls at the last fence (conviction, prison, Supreme Court ban) would be like the horse that comes through the mist from the back of the field to win the Grand National at Aintree in Liverpool after every other horse has fallen over or lost their jockeys. The horse that famously did that was Foinavon who emerged through the mist to win the Grand National in 1967 at odds of 100-1 after the rest of the field fell by the wayside. Could Haley be the Foinavon of the 2024 election? Right now I'd put money on Trump winning the nomination and the election. But a few dollars/pounds on Haley at 100-1 just might be a gamble worth taking.

Will Joe Biden last the course?

The US newspapers are having a field day speculating about whether Joe Biden will stay the course and fight Trump for the presidency or step down and let a younger candidate try and stop the former president from returning to the White House. But we are only a few months away from nomination day for the Democratic party. Is it really possible or practical for Biden to decide at the last moment not to stand and let someone younger take over? I know US politics are crazy but I can't see Biden doing any such thing. So, even though a large number of American voters don't like the idea of a 2020 rerun with two old men in the race for the White House, that seems most likely to be the scenario facing the electorate later this year. Trump can't escape the "old" tag because recently he has made a few verbal slip-ups which have given his critics ammunition to cast doubt on his mental faculties. Like when he muddled up Nancy Pelosi with Nikki Haley. Several times. All the speculation is that Trump is going to choose a woman to be hs running-mate, so he'll have to make sure he gets her name right! Biden won't have this problem because he said right from the start that Kamala Harris would be his running-mate, and he sees her every day in the White House, so he sould be able to remember her name. Between now and November, watching out for slip-ups by both Biden and Trump is going to be the hottest game in town. He who makes the smallest number of gaffes will probably win the election.

It's now just a two-horse race for the Republican nomination

Ron DeSantis looked at himself in the mirror and realised that very few people in the United States wanted him to be the next president. It must have been an easy but devastating decision. He had started off so cocky after his reelection as governor in Florida. He thought the momentum from that success would carry him all the way to the White House. But how wrong he was, and how galling it must have been for him to realise that at this stage in the campaign. In a way, it's surprising that he has dropped out so early. He was far behind Trump in the Iowa caucuses vote but he did come second. Nikki Haley, the former governor of South Carolina, came third but she is still in the race. But it's all about attitude and confidence and belief. Haley still believes she might be able to beat Trump, whereas DeSantis came to the conclusion that he hadn't a hope and opted to give his support to Trump. It's a huge boost for the Trump campaign. In reality the only way Haley is going to win the nomination is for Trump to be convicted of a crime and sent to prison. The biggest trial, the one concerned with Trump's alleged involvement in the January 6 2021 assault on the Capitol, is set for March. But will it go ahead or be delayed beyond July when the Republican convention will choose its candidate, or even beyond November 5, the day of the presidential election? Nikki Haley can only pray that the trial goes ahead as proposed by the prosecution. But even then she won't be guaranted victory because if Trump is aquitted, he will win the nomination.

If Trump wins in New Hampshire on Tuesday, is that it?

Nikki Haley is going to have to do really well in the New Hampshire primary if she wants to prove she has what it takes to beat Donald Trump to the Republican nomination. She came third in the Iowa caucuses and has to surge forward on Tuesday. But the chances are that Trump will bring his Iowa momentum with him to New Hampshire and come out well on top. Will that be it then? Trump all the way? They say that Iowa and New Hampshire are the ones which give a clear indication who is going to win the Republican nomination. So, yes, if Trump does well, he will be on a straight run to the nomination unless of course he is sent to prison or the US Supreme Court rules he can't run for the presidency because of his involvement in the January 6 2021 assault on the Capitol. Neither of these possibilities seem likely, so Haley, let alone Ron DeSantis, will have their work cut out for them if they decide to keep their campaigns going. I guess they will, provided the donations stay rolling in.

Israeli politics is destroying any chance of peace

There's going to be no peace in the Middle East while Binyamin Netanyahu is in power in Israel. He has ruled out any possibility of creating a Palestine state under the two-state proposal of old and wants Israel to basically control and be in charge of Gaza and the West Bank for ever, athough he accepts Palestinians could run everything except security. Despite badgering by Washington, Netanyahu has set his face against anything that even hints of Palestinian autonomy. Anyone with a modicum of brain cells and a sense of history knows that at some point in the future there has to be a place in this world for the Palestinians to live and breathe and be their own master in their own land. If the Israelis have their own borders, why shouldn't the Palestinians? But it's never going to happen under Netanyahu's watch. He has never accepted the two-state solution and after October 7 he is never going to change his mind. While it's understandable that he wants Hamas to play no part in any future territorial arrangement, there has to be a way round it. No Hamas but something else. I also understand why he doesn't want to give more power to the Palestinian Authority because as an organisation it has been riddled with corruption and incompetence. But a non-Hamas solution must be found which doesn't undermine Israel's security in any way but gives Palestinians a new sense of independence and recognition. Under Netanyahu it's just not going to happen.

Will "top" generals please stop warning of world war

Generals, admirals, they are all coming out of the woodwork and predicting that we in the West will be at war with Russia or China or whoever within the next five years. Do they really think they are doing us all a service by warning of global catastrophe in such a short timeframe? Aren't there are enough things to worry about on this planet without scaring the pants of us by predicting a full-scale war with Russia etc. The average person these days - billionaires excluded - have enough trouble coping with daily pressures and stresses and money problems without being forced to hear what these generals and admirals are saying. I know it's their job to make sure governments make the right decisions to keep defences up and military spending up and up to cope with future conflicts, but predicting the next world war and when it's going to happen is about as useful as when Nostradamus predicted the end of the world.

War has become the norm in the Middle East

There are now eight countries and terrorist-designated groups at war one way or another in the wider Middle East region and it has become the norm to read about the latest bombings. The new year has truly begun in the worst possible way. The countries involved are the US, Israel, UK, Iran and Pakistan, and the terrorist-designated organisations are Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthis. What a mix, what potential for catastrophe for the whole world, and yet hardly anyone is urgently seeking peace, except for the UN, the millions of protesters around the globe and the Pope. The US, aided on a much smaller scale by the UK, and the Houthis have now settled in for a long period of tit-for-tat missile strikes, Iran and Pakistan likewise, Iran is stirring it up whenever and wherever it can, and Israel is not going to give up until Hamas has been eliminated from Gaza. So, a year of multi wars ahead of us. Meanwhile, the UK government is moving on with its plan to send all illegal immigrants, who arrive by boat from Calais, to Rwanda. There is very little sign of any hope or decency or optimism in the world right now.

Iran is the one to watch this year

Iran has taken upon itself the role of world's chief mischief-maker. The ayatollahs have always played a dangerous game with the rest of the world, especially with the United States. But Tehran has kicked off 2024 with a blast of ballistic missiles aimed all over the place, hitting targets in Syria, Iraq and now Pakistan. And what the ayatollahs are doing clandestinely with their nuclear weapons programme, we can only guess at but they are very close to developing bomb-grade highly enriched uranium and have all the wherewithal to produce a nuclear warhead in a relatively short time. Tehran with nuclear weapons would be deeply scary. We know they have built intermediate-range ballistic missiles that could reach Israel. Normally Israel would be revving up their bombers to hit Iran's nuclear sites, just like they did against a nearly finshed nuclear reactor southeast of Baghdad in Iraq on June 7, 1981. But Israel is a bit distracted right now with Gaza and the West Bank and Hezbollah. Tehran's flagrant aggression against Iraq, Syria and Pakistan is a sign that the ayatollahs have decided to grab tbeir moment while the world is focused on Gaza and Israel's war with Hamas and launch missiles in the expectation that they might get away with it. They will have been pleased to see how limited the strikes have been against the Houthis in Yemen, carried out by the US and Britain, and have probably gambled that Washington won't want to start striking targets in Iran for fear of further escalating an already escalating Middle East war. So we can expect more ballistic missile launches emanating from Iran in the next few weeks. Iran and especially its nuclear weapons programme, will have to be watched like the most hawkish of hawks throughout 2024.

Why is Biden happy about taking on Trump again?

I think Joe Biden and his campaign team have have got it into their heads that it's good news Donald Trump is going to win the Republican nomination because then the election will be all about dictatorship versus democracy. If only it were that simple. Judging by the fact that Trump waltzed towards a huge victory in Iowa over his Republican rivals, it doesn't seem to me as if American voters are worried one bit about dictatorship versus democracy. They just want Trump, autocratic warts and all. So, however much Biden goes on about the country facing a dangerous moment when democracy could be stamped on if he is not reelected as president, I fear that message might fall on deaf ears, certainly ears belonging to Trump's huge fan base. So, it seems a little optimistic to imagine that everyone will turn to Biden at the last moment because of the fear that Trump will dump democracy and become America's Mussolini. He may well do just that, but do people care? Iowa says no.

Desperate plight of the hostages in Gaza

When and under what circumstances are the 100 or so hostages going to be freed from capture in Gaza? It looks like Hamas won't even contemplate releasing any more while the Israel Defence Forces are still fighting them. It's getting desperdate for the hostages and their families back in Israel because there seems to be no ray of hope for them. Plus, there is the real prospect that perhaps 25 of the hostages are dead. What agony for the families not to know whether their loved ones are dead or alive. Binyamin Netanyahu has said he will fight on until the whole Hamas structure has been destroyed but he hasn't said he will fight on until all the hostages have been released. Now that so much damage has been done to Gaza and so many Palestinian civilians killed, isn't it time to put every effort into finding and freeing the hostages and making that the number one priority? The whole world community should condemn Hamas for still holding hostages after 100 days but of course this won't happen because there are countries which support Hamas, most notably Iran but others, too. So there is no incentive for Hamas to free the hostages. As I have written before, where are the great world figures stepping in to sort out this crisis? Right now, all the West is worried about are the Houthis but they are a very minor bit-part player in this regional war. What needs solving is Gaza.

No one is going to win in Ukraine

Rishu Sunak hops over to Kyiv to promise another £2.9 billion in support for Ukraine in its mighty battle with Russia and warns the world that the fight has to continue because to allow Putin to win would mean giving him carte blanche to attack other countries. This message has been repeated a million times since the Russians invaded Ukraine nearly two years ago. The words chosen by Sunak were the same used by every other western leader. It's a script set in concrete. But does anyone really believe that Putin is going to win or that Zelensky is going to win. There are going to be no winners in this war which has ground to a stalemate and it's time Kyiv's western backers accepted this truth and started thinking about ways of bringing the whole disaster to an end. A long time ago, it seems, General Mark Milley, the recently retired chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, said that at some stage there would have to be a diplomatic settlement because an end to the war would not be achieved by a victory on the battlefield, ie, Ukraine forcing every Russian soldier and tank out of the country. Now, months later, the situation hasn't changed. The Ukrainian counter-offensive which was intended to recover all the occupied territory hasn't worked out and even when the F-16s eventually start to operate, they are not going to make such a difference that the Russians will just give up. They stayed put when all the western tanks started to arrive. So instead of churning out the same old message and delivering more and more money to the Kyiv government, a way has to be found to change the dynamics in this war. Is any leader brave enough to come up with a proposal or will Sunak and co keep on with their "secret" visits to Kyiv and pledge eternal funding and support?

Pentagon chief still in hospital after 13 days

The US defence secretary needs to be in the chain of command before the president gives the go ahead for military action anywhere in the world. Lloyd Austin, former four-star army general, knows all about the authorisation process for such moments. This time, with the plan to hit the Houthis in Yemen in retaliation for their missile strikes against shipping in the Red Sea, Austin had to perform his duties from his hospital bed in the Walter Reed hospital in Washington. Officials are falling over themselves to say that Austin carried out his duties without any problem. But the extraordinary and unexplained thing is why the defence secretary remains in hospital after nearly two weeks, and the Pentagon says there is no date for his release. He had emergency treatment to relieve the pain he was suffering after a prostrate operation in December but that was on January 1 and since then the Pentagon has been saying he was recovering well. But two weeks have gone by and he is still there. Has something else happened which has persuaded the doctors to keep him hospitalised? If so, why isn't anyone saying anything? This whole episode has been revealing for its lack of transparency.

Houthis get what they asked for

The Houthi rebels in Yemen who, like the two other "H's" - Hamas and Hezbollah - are armed, financed and trained by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, basically asked to be attacked. They were warned that they faced airstrikes if they carried on firing missiles at ships in the Red Sea and they just carried on, except on a larger scale. So they literally asked to be bombed, and the US and UK obliged. But how long can this go on for? The Houthis will now do something in revenge and the US/UK will answer back, and so forth. If any Yemeni civilans get killed in the rush of missiles and bombs, the US and UK will be on a hiding to nothing. The poor Yemeni people have been suffering from civil war since 2014. Tens of thousands of civilians have been killed and wounded and made homeless by years of bombing by a Saudi-led coalition, armed with American and British precision air-to-surface weapons. Joe Biden and Congress became so concerned about the proliferating number of civilian deaths, the weapons flow to Saudi Arabia stopped. Yemen has been a basket case for a decade and at one point was described as a nation suffering the worst humanitarian crisis on the planet. So one civilian death from US or UK airstrikes and they are going to get condemned whatever the Houthis do next.

Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis haven't a cat in hell's chance of beating Trump

Judging by the bickering between Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis last night in the latest TV debate, they have absolutely no hope of toppling Donald Trump from his position as the leading candidate for the Republican presidential nomination. Not a cat in hell's chance. Chris Christie, former New Jersey governor who has now dropped out of the race, obviously agrees because he said as much when he thought the microphone was off. Only the US Supreme Court and/or a non-suspended jail sentence will stop Trump from winning the Republican nomination and beating Biden in November for the White House. Joe Biden is a good sort and a decent man and he has tried to be an effective president. But he comes across as too cautious, too hesitant, and uninspiring. Some critics might say he is too feeble in manner to be the most powerful politician in the world. So bring on Trump. That may well be the decision of a lot of American voters. I doubt anyone really believes that a President Haley or a President DeSantis would be capable of striding the world like a President Trump, and Americans like their president to stride the world. But there are still ten months to go before the election. Something might happen to stop Trump from reentering the White House. Prison or a ruling by the Supreme Court. But somehow I doubt it.

Biden has little choice but to hit the Houthis

The trouble with ultimatums is that when they are ignored the only option left is to go ahead with the threat implied in the ultimatum or face derision. So when the US, Britain and other nations warned the Houthis in Yemen that if they continued to launch drones and missiles at shipping in the Red Sea they would face the consequences, everyone assumed that meant there would be retaliatory airstrikes on targets in Yemen. The Houthis have called their bluff by firing a barrage of drones and cruise missiles across the Red Sea last night. They were all shot down, so no harm done to commercial ships. But the fact is, the Houthis have ignored the ultimatum. Joe Biden should even now be authorising strikes on Houthi launch sites in Yemen. But Biden knows that if he does order strikes, it will be seen as a major step towards a more expansive Middle East war, precisely what he wants to avoid. But if he doesn't, it will be interpreted as Washington backing down, and the Houthis will fire more missiles. I suspect what will happen is that Biden will order limited strikes, to take out one of the Houthi missile-launch sites in southern Yemen, and then will warn that more strikes will follow if the Houthis continue to fire missiles. A step-by-step approach. Doing nothing would undermine Washington's deterrence strategy in the Red Sea. None of this is helped by having his defence secretary in hospital, able to give his advice but not in the most ideal circumstances.

The US defence secretary's AWOL mystery gets worse

Now we hear that Lloyd Austin, the US defence secretary, was in "severe pain" wheh he was rushed to hospital and to the ICU on January 1, that his chief of staff who should have told the White House, had flu and didn't tell anyone, and lots of people in Washington now want resignations. Nikki Haley, the Republican presidential candidate, who until now I thought was rather good with her head on the right way round, has called for Joe Biden to resign! Others, like Trump, have said Austin should resign. That at least makes more sense. You can't expect Biden to resign for something he knew nothing about. Major-General Pat Ryder, the Pentagon press secretary who is a good guy, has faced a torrid time from the Pentagon press corps reporters who, understandably, have been asking why the hell they weren't told, never mind the president. Apart from all the political repercussions and the demands for heads to roll, the biggest mystery and the most private topic is what on earth happened to the defence secretary? He had had a minor op of some sort and had goone hme only to wake up in terrible pain. What caused it and how close to danger was he? He didn't just go to A and E for treatment, he was taken straight to an intensive care unit. In other words, it was sufficiently serious for him to be given all the required life-support assistance to keep him functioning properly. Sudden severe pain after an op of whatever kind would normally be associated with a blockage in the system. For example, a blockage in the waterworks. That would be seriously painful. If that is the case, then perhaps what this is all about is the fact that the medical problem was deemed to be so personal that Austin just didn't want it to become public, or even presidential knowledge. This is purely speculation. But that might explain what this has all been about.

Is Israel trying to provoke Hezbollah into a war?

An Israeli drone has killed a senior Hezbollah leader in Lebanon. Was this a deliberate attempt to provoke Hezbollah, and Iran, into a war? The poor Americans. They are desperately trying to calm things down in the Middle East and bring the war in Gaza to an end, for the sake of the Palestinian people. Antony Blinken, US secretary of state, who has been back and forth between Israel and Washington so many times he must be sick of spwlling out the same argument for Israeli restraint only to be told the war has to go on until every Hamas fighter is dead. And now when he is on his latest tour of the region, Israel targets this Hezbollah leader in southern Lebanon. I can just hear Blinken turning to his travelling officials and saying: "Dammit, I'm trying to stop the war spreading and Netanyahu kicks me in the ...." I still don't think Iran wants to take on Israel and certainly not the United States, but a drone attack like this one today is bound to be seen in Tehran as a deliberate throwing-down of the gauntlet. I suspect Iran will respond in some way and Blinken will return to Washington after another frustratingly brick-wall diplomatic mission.

What's going on in the Pentagon?

How is it possible that the US defence secretary Lloyd Austin goes into hospital and then suffers complications from a "medical procedure" involving surgery, and no one was told about it for days? If President Biden gets a cold, the world knows and medical bulletins are posted. But Austin, in one of the most senior and sensitive jobs in the Biden administration, goes to hospital and hands over the reigns to his deputy who just happens to be on holiday in Puerto Rico and not a single official in the Pentagon lets the president know or anyone else in the national security team. It's so bizarre that it's almost beyond belief. Was it such a delicate medical procedure that Austin didn't want anyone to know about it? This defence secretary has been mostly so sure-footed that it makes little sense. He did once say that one of the ohjectives of the US support for Ukraine was to degrade Russia's warfighting capability so that the Russian army couldn't carry out any more offensives in the future which caused a bit of a stir. But apart from that, Austin has been solid and reliable. His only other fault is his lack of enthusiasm for appearing before the media. Perhaps that's why he must have told his officials in his private office that he didn't want his medical procedure bandied about in the press and so he told them to keep quiet about it. But not telling the Wite House? Surely that was his responsibility? It's a huge mistake on his part and Congress which always wants to be told everything will hammer away until they see heads rolling.

What if the US Supreme Court rules against Trump?

So the Supreme Court of the United States has agreed to rule on the historic decision by the Colorado supreme court to prohibit Donald Trump from standing as Republican presidential candidate in the state because of his breach of Section 3 of the 14th Amendment of the US constitution which disallows anyone holding public office who has incited or inspired a rebellion against the nation. The ruling is expected in February. Three of the judges on the Supreme Court were appointed by Trump but there is no guarantee that that will save Trump from the ignominious position of being banned from standing for the presidency. No wonder Trump is said to be concerned that he won't get the ruling he needs and wants because the judges have stipulated that whatever decision they make it will hold for every state, not just Colorado. That's huge, big-time, mammoth! What if the judges rule by a majority that Trump is ineligible to stand because of his perceived involvement in the January 6, 2021, assault on the Capitol and his attempts to override the 2020 election result? Such a ruling would be greeted with anger by every Trump loyalist. And then what? The Colorado supreme court judges, three women and four men, produced a detailed argument running to more than 120 pages. Legal experts concede the ruling was properly and decisively argued. The highest court in the land will be examining exactly the same arguments and could come to the same conclusion. But could it be argued that this would be a ruling against democracy, in other words a ruling that would prevent a huge number of voters from voting for the person of their choice to be the next president? If the judges discount this as an argument for keeping Trump's name on the ballot paper, the consequences could be both dangerous and unpredictable.

Antony Blinken on an impossibe mission to Israel

The US secretary of state Antony Blinken is making yet another visit to Israel and elsewhere in the Middle East. It's like the old-style shuttle diplomacy of the Cold War. He has already tried to persuade Israel to adopt a different path over the bombardment of Gaza and to start thinking of the future of the Palestinians. But it seems he has lost the argument because the Israeli defence minister has now outlined how the Tel Aviv government views a future Gaza. It is to be a territory secured and controlled by Israel, although the Palestinians left from the bombing will be allowed to govern themselves. That's a formula that is never going to find favour in Washington. Joe Biden wants a Palestinian state with independence. There will be no independence with Israeli troops on the streets. So Blinken's visit is going to be even tougher than usual. I don't know how well he stands up to Binyamin Netanyahu but I doubt the Israeli prime minister is in a mood to give an inch to his American visitor. He has decided he wants Israel to retain firm control of Gaza and the West Bank and that's the way it's going to stay for as long as he is in power. I wonder, if there was an election in Israel today, whether the majority of Israeli people would agree with him.

Of course it was Isis who killed more than 80 Iranians

After the double bomb explosion in Iran which it was initially claimed had killed more than 100 people commemorating the death of General Qasem Soleimani, some figures in Tehran leapt in and blamed Israel and the United States. Yet it was perfectly obvious to anyone who has followed the terrorist activities of the Islamic State that it was an atrocity committed by Isis. One of the bombs was a suicide bomb. This is pure Isis modus operandi and it made absolutely no sense to accuse Israel of being responsible for the attack. Isis has carried out simliar attacks in Iran in recent years. Isis hated Soleimani, the late leader of the Islamic Revoutionary Guard Corps's Quds Force, who was killed by an American drone strike at Baghdad airport in January 2020. Soleimani had authorised numerous strikes aganst Isis in Iran while he ran the powerful Quds Force. So a twin bomb explosion aimed at killing as many pro-Soleimani mourners as possible, was always going to be Isis, and never Israel. But with the Middle East on fire over the war in Gaza and the missile launches by Houthi rebels across the Red Sea, the explosions in Iran fed into the general anti-Israel narrative. The Supreme Ayatollah has vowed to take revenge against the perpetrators of the bomb attacks. I assume someone has told him to aim his ire at Isis and not at Israel or the US.

Israel going for precision strikes

After the mass bombardments of Gaza and the presence of thousands of troops from the Israel Defence Forces, it now seems the Tel Aviv government is switching to targeted precision strikes to eliminate Hamas. But precision strikes against the top Hamas leaders in Gaza are not going to be as easy as the attack on the Hamas deputy political leader sitting in a meeting in an apartment in the suburbs of Beirut. Of course it took exceptional intelligence to discover where Saleh al-Arouri was to make sure the drone missile was going to go through the right window. But the deputy leader of the Hamas political bureau, with close links to the military wing and to Hezbollah and Iran, was a relatively simple target. He was seen and identified by the drone operators in Israel and all they had to do was press a button. With the Hamas leaders in Gaza, identification was always going to be harder because they are underground. Whatever meetings they are attending are hundreds of feet below. Drones will neither find them nor kill them. The main two, Yahya Sinwar and Mohammed Deif, have remained out of sight since the IDF crossed over into Gaza and they are unlikely to emerge at any point. But with thousands of reservists now being sent home, the strategy is changing. Less fighting on a large scale and more intelligence-driven targeted attacks. This is why Netanyahu and his military commanders are warning the war could continue for many more months.

Air defence will be key to war in Ukraine this year

If the first two days of the New Year are anything to go by, Vladimir Putin's strategy for the war in Ukraine this year is to bombard Kyiv and other cities with kamikaze drones and cruise missiles non-stop. The bombardments have increased significantly at the same time as the Kyiv government is appealing for more air defence systems to counter the attacks. With US funding drying up thanks to Congress indecision and internal fighting, Kyiv may have to rely on Europe to send the necessary weapons. Air defence is going to be the key ingredient throughout this year and unless Kyiv gets enough Patriots and other anti-missile systems, Putin is going to hammer Ukraine to oblivion. The long-awaited F-16s will beconme operational in Ukraine this year, but they won't stop the drones and cruise missiles from flying over the country. The struggle to get enough air defence weapons in play could be the defining moment for Ukraine. Many other advanced battlefield systems sent to Ukraine, including western tanks and long-range artillery and rockets, have not so far made much difference because the land battles have effectively ground to a halt. The Russians have built such massive defences along their frontlines that the Ukrainian counter-offensive has stalled. So it's going to be a missile and drone war and Kyiv is outgunned. Ukrainian cities have the grim prospect of facing Putin's wrath following the attacks over the Russian border into Belgorod. We are going to see more and more of these tit-for-tat strikes, and Moscow has the stronger hand.

The wars in Ukraine and Gaza will not stop in 2024

It is almost certain that this time next year the wars in Ukraine and Gaza will still be going on which means thousands and thousands more people will die and thousands and thousands more buildngs, including people's homes, will be destroyed. This is the most pessimistic but most realistic prediction for 2024. Nothing the rest of the world can do or should do will make any difference. Even if the US funding for Ukraine dries up for months, Ukraine will battle on, increasingly turning to their own home-made weapons, and even if the US starts to pull back from full support for Israel, the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) will carry on fighting until Hamas has or is perceived to have been conquered and eliminated. In a world where severe climate-change weather conditions are going to affect everyone, it is tragic that certain leaders just want to use war to resolve what they have decided is the only way to achieve their objectives. Putin and Netanyahu are never going to give up. So that means war and killings and destruction for another whole year. And beyond.