Trump says he will be arrested when he chooses!

Trump seems to be in charge of when the prosecution can take action against him. It says so much about the former president. He still has White House in his head and heart. As soon as he was indicted by the grand jury yesterday on charges we have no details about as yet he and his battery of lawyers made it clear the Manhattan district attorney Alvin Bragg could not insist on him handing himself over at some point today. No way, said Trump, I'll do it on Tuesday and not a day earlier. What a farce. If there's an indictment surely the prosecuting authority has the right to dictate when the indicted personage sbould be detained and fingerprinted. But not with the former president of the United States. He says what goes. He is heavily involved in having parties at his residence in Mar-a-Lago right now, so Bragg can wait. Ha! This is what happens when a former president gets indicted. It has never been done before so poor old Bragg who is going to have a nightmare time for the next few months has litle choice but to go along with it. Trump can always say it's a matter of security, ie when his Secret Service detail can arrange everything. It's being claimed that special arrangements will be offered, like Trump sneaking through the back door of the district attorney's office in Manhattan to avoid the reporters and cameras. What!! Trump will march through the front door surely to get maximum publicity. This is Trump, not some down-at-heal low-grade politician caught with his fingers in the till. So from now on the Big Story in the US is going to be Trump Trump Trump. Just what he wants. Thanks to Bragg, the former president is marching steadily towards the White House sunset.

When will western tanks start to make a difference in Ukraine?

Ukraine has received more than 1,000 tanks from friendly nations since the war began but the deployment of tanks on the battlefield is not going to make a major difference for the Kyiv government until the US Abrams, German Leopards and British Challengers start to be used en masse against the strongest Russian defences. It has been a long time coming and it's not happening yet because the Ukrainians are still training on the Leopards and Challengers, and the Abrams M1A1s won't arrive till the autumn. But if the much-awaited spring counter-offensive by Ukraine is to succeed, these more advanced tanks will need to be in the forefront of the attack. The offensive may have to be delayed. They will need all the tanks promised to be ready for operations but that moment has not arrived. Meanwhile, fortunately for the tough Ukrainian soldiers currently fighting for the survival of Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine, the Russians are proving incapable of mounting any sort of decisive, territory-grabbing operation. The war of attrition is being fought in yards, not square miles. The Wagner Group mercenaries, Putin's private army of prison-released convicts, have failed to achieve what they thought would be a total surrender of the city. The Ukrainian defenders have refused to give in and have driven the Russians into their trenches and ditches. The slaughter toll has been unimaginable on both sides. But the good news for President Zelensky and his campaign to drive the invasion force out of the country is that his soldiers are not in the mood for surrender. They are literally prepared to fight to the death. In Bakhmut it's a noble and terrifying last stand. So if Bakhmut is not taken by the Russians, it will a good omen for when the Ukrainian counter-offensive begins. And with those western tanks, Zelensky's soldiers will have even more confidence that they can beat the Russians.

A hypersonic hiccup for the US Air Force

A key multi-million dollar American hypersonic missile project looks doomed after another unsuccessful flight test. At a time when Russia has been firing hypersonic missiles against Ukraine, the setback for the US military was confirmed by Frank Kendall, the Pentagon’s air force secretary. The air-launched rapid response weapon (ARRW), launched from a B-52H strategic bomber and capable of reaching in excess of Mach 5 - five times the speed of sound – was intended to be the US Air Force’s primary hypersonic weapon. However, following the failed test last week, Kendall indicated ARRW’s fate might be sealed and research efforts would be switched to a second “more promising” programme called hypersonic attack cruise missile (HACM). “We see a definite role for the HACM concept. It’s compatible with more of our aircraft, and it will give us more combat capability overall. So we’re more committed to HACM at this point in time than we are to ARRW,” he told the House appropriations defence subcommittee. Hypersonic missiles which could ultimately reach speeds of up to Mach 20 have generated an intensive arms race between the US, Russia and China. Flying faster than a mile a second and manoeuvring throughout the flight, hypersonic missiles test the limits of weapons development. Russia is the first of the rival great powers to deploy an operational system. The Kinzhal hypersonic missile was first used in combat against Ukraine on March 19 last year. It was unveiled by President Putin five years ago. The Pentagon’s ARRW missile potentially has greater capability than the Kinzhal. In December, a full assessment of ARRW was carried out and the results were optimistic, despite initial test failures. In the recently released defence budget for 2024, the air force requested $150 million to continue development. But if the next planned tests fail, the programme may be scrapped. The budget for the alternative HACM system allows for $380 million to be spent on development in 2024. HACM is a scramjet-powered hypersonic air-launched cruise missile which will be fitted initially to the F-15E Strike Eagle fighter aircraft. Assuming flight tests go well, the HACM capability could be operational by 2027. The US Army and US Navy are working together to produce a long-range hypersonic missile. The navy version will be put on the Zumwalt-class guided-missile destroyer.

Does Biden want to see Russia defeated in Ukraine?

The weapons supplied by the US and Nato allies to Ukraine have grown in sophistication and capability since the Russian invasion 13 months ago. President Biden’s policy throughout has been driven by the need to avoid the risk of the war escalating into a regional conflict or worse still, a direct confrontation between Russia and Nato. “The Russian invasion of Ukraine has been a strategic failure but we’re dealing here with a nuclear power and we have to take that into account,” a senior US administration official said. The statement by President Putin at the weekend that he proposed to deploy tactical air-launched nuclear weapons to Belarus, 250 miles flight time to Kyiv, underscored the potential dangers ahead. However, despite alarming nuclear threats by Moscow, Nato has become bolder. The escalation threshold has been raised significantly, suggesting Washington is prepared to call Putin’s bluff. As Ukraine demanded longer range rockets, advanced tanks, modern air-defence systems and fighter aircraft, the alliance acquiesced, albeit in a measured and, in Kyiv’s eyes, protracted manner. More than $32 billion of arms have been supplied by the US alone since February 24 last year. The most potent was the high mobility artillery rocket system (Himars) which doubled the range for shelling Russian targets. The US-dominated coalition of 54 countries has delivered or pledged more than 1,000 tanks and other armoured vehicles, 800 howitsers, 50 advanced multiple launch rocket systems and two million artillery shells. The key questions now are: has the alliance’s end-game changed? Have the military objectives become more ambitious? The publicly stated objective is not the defeat of Russia per se. The strategy, outlined on numerous occasions by Biden is to help Ukraine defend itself against Russian aggression, and to make sure that Kyiv is in as strong a position as possible, militarily, when the time arrives for a negotiated settlement. That strategy now seems to have a tougher edge to it. “We want to see Ukraine win and retain the entirety of their territory,” the senior US administration official said. “The aim is to ensure Ukraine’s sovereignty and independence are secured and that would mean the recovery of territory occupied by the Russians. If the Russians withdraw that would be seen as a defeat and that would be welcome,” the official said. “Realistically, this is not going to happen [in the near future]. We’ve seen new horrific strikes against the Ukrainian people and Russia is showing no interest in negotiations. So our position is that we will continue to do everything we can to help Ukraine survive as an independent, democratic country,” the official said. By the autumn, the Ukrainian army will have US Abrams M1A1 tanks to go with their German Leopards and British Challengers, as well as a fully operational Patriot anti-missile battery capable of shooting down Russian ballistic and cruise missiles. The Ukrainian air force won’t have US F-16s because Washington is still worried about crossing the escalation line. But it will have more MiG-29s sent by Poland and Slovakia and perhaps the US will allow other Nato members to supply F-16s. This has yet to be decided. This accumulation of advanced western weapons on the battlefield, alongside Russia’s continuing struggle to seize more territory and its appalling toll of dead and wounded could be the decisive factors that bring this war to an end. However, there is one question no one in the West can answer: if Russian troops withdraw in humiliating defeat to their home garrisons what would Putin do next?

Netanyahu faces huge climbdown or chaos

With his sacked defence minister and the president of Israel and President Biden calling for him to stop hurling the country imto chaos with his wild anti-judges legislation, Binyamin Netanyahu has reached a point where he will surely have to back down. Big time. But if he does and shelves or scraps the planned legislation to neuter the Israeli supreme court, will he survive politically? The problem for Netanyahu is that he faces corruption charges from way back and this is at the front of his mind as he tries to try to immasculate the judges. He is digging himself into a hole from which there will be no means of extraction. He has been leader of Israel for so long, off and on, that the country has become synonymous with his style of tough politics, both at home and abroad. But his coalition bedfellows are much much more extreme than he is and they are the driving force behind the confrontation that has caused such massive disruption throughout Israel. Washington will be worried for a number of reasons. Israel is an important ally. Sharing the same democratic values is part of that partnership. But with this proposed legislation, Netanyahu's government is giving itself greater power and ensuring weaker accountability. Israel is a tiny country and right now its towns and cities are packed with hundreds of thousands of demonstrators. They say they are fighting for democracy. Supressing the protesters will not only lead to increased violence but will also damage Israel's reputation and image around the world. Israel's enemies will be watching with pleasure.

Putin's tactical nuke move raises the stakes

It didn't take long for Putin to turn to Russia's estimated 2,000 tactical nukes to further raise the stakes in the Ukraine war. Previously he had warned the West that he could use these weapons if pushed but now he has announced he is going to deploy some of them to Belarus, the only country of the former Soviet Union that actually still has amicable relations with Moscow. Belarus of course is ruled by an autocrat who makes even Putin look less like a Mafia chief. So using Belarus to house nuclear weapons is probably the most unstable thing Putin has done since he sent his troops over the border into Ukraine. Bizarrely Putin is saying he has been forced into this deployment to counter the threat posed by the depleted uranium shells the UK is planning to send to Ukraine along with Challenger 2 tanks. Even schoolboy chemists know this argument is facile. Depleted uranium-tipped shells can pierce heavily armoured tanks better than normal armour. But they can hardly be classed as nuclear weapons as Putin seems to be implying. But confirmation from the UK that these sort of shells will be sent to Ukraine has given Putin what he believes is just cause for retaliating with the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus. To be honest he didn't need an excuse, he was probably always going to send nukes to Belarus because its leader Alexander Lukashenko is desperate to curry favour with Putin and was happy to go along with the construction of hangars and storage sites for these weapons. The world is getting more dangerous by the day.

Will Macron back down?

So far Emmanuel Macron has stuck to his guns. He pledged to increase the retirement age for France from 62 and 64 and he has done it. Not by a democratically approved vote in parliament but by presidential edict. That was surely his mistake. While every other nation in Europe must be gazing in a perplexed way at the French and their bizarre attitude to work, the millions of protesters would have been less violent and possibly even compliant if Macron had put his retirement reform proposal to parliament. If he had lost, that would have been democracy for you. We, the Brits, left the EU after the vote in parliament went the wrong way!! If Macron had won then he could have gone ahead with the backing of parliament and my guess is the violent protests would eventually have come to an end. But he ignored parliament and made it a fait accompli. No wonder those who hate him believe he is trying to become a new stye of emperor instead of just a plain and ordinary president. The fancy watch which he removed surrepticiously from his wrist during a tv interview was, in their view, another example of a president trying to hide his wealth. It was a pretty stupid move which made headlines everywhere. The protesters are unlikely to go away. Tourism in Paris will drop dramatically and the country will go to the chiens unless Macron perhaps meets the demonstrators halfway. Perhaps he could ofer to increase the retirement age in stages. From 62 to 63 for the next two years and from 63 to 64 after that. But somehow I expect Emperor Macron is dead set on staying firm with his policy, never mind the chaos. Meanwhile, King Charles III has been advised to delay his state visit and any other foreign leader in the diary for a session in the Lycee is also likely to cancel their trip. Doom and humiliation for the French president.

Is TikTok taking over our lives?

All the fuss right now is about TikTok. Run by a Chinese company headed by a very smart-looking young businessman, like a Chinese version of Mark Zuckerberg, it pours out videos every minute, some of which are bordering on the salacious but more often than not highlight confrontations between US police traffic patrol officers and innocent-sounding drivers stopped for no reason, as well as astounding traffic accidents and people doing stupid but often quite hilarious things. No harm really and fairly entertaining as long as it doesn't become addictive watching. But is it secretly a Chinese spying operation, a way for Beijing to insinuate itself into western social lives and tap into people's data? I haven't a clue but Shou Zi Chew, the Chinese CEO of ByteDance which owns TikTok, was claiming all innocence when he appeared before a very hostile congressional hearing in Washington yesterday. He sounded pretty convincing and tried to persuade the disbelieving congressional panel that the Chinese Communist Party was not in charge of TikTok. I think despite his earnestness he failed to win his argument that TikTok was not in fact a giant Beijing spying machine. The panel seemed intent on getting TikTok banned in the US. The truth is that every social media platform, whether run by the Chinese, Americans or whoever, is amazingly intrusive. In many ways they have taken over our lives. Millions of people get their news from social media as opposed to newspapers, TV or radio. But could TikTok really be spying on us all? If so, to what end? It reminds me of that story doing the rounds recently about giant Chinese cranes in the US and how they too could be spying platforms. It all sounds a bit ridiculous to me but what do I know?

Trump's false expectation of arrest

I guess it's no surprise whatsoever that Trump's announcement that he was going to be arrested on Tuesday was actually baloney. He wasn't arrested and he still hasn't been arrested and for all we know he may never be arrested. But for a time it gave Trump what he loves most, big headlines, rousing support from the Republican hierarchy and his adoring fans and huge publicity round the clock. What he based his "I'm about to be arrested" social media statement on we don't know but it was hinted there had been a leak from the office of Alvin Bragg, the Manhattan district attorney who has been investigating Trump's alleged involvement in paying hush money to porn star Stormy Daniels. Bragg has now come out and dismissed Trump's claims as false. It appears he was not on the point of arresting Trump. It doesn't mean he won't. But Trump succeeded in preempting him by getting maximum coverage in an attempt to boost the sympathy vote. What a farce! It just shows how social media can play a leading role in creating stories that literally take over the whole country. Every American has been waiting agog for the moment when Trump got marched off in handcuffs. Trump by all accounts was looking forward to it. Anyway nothing has happened and Bragg will no doubt now bide his time and wait for a better moment to pursue the former president. The winner out of all of this? Well, Trump of course. All that free publicity.

Putin and Xi Zinping are of the same mind: Russia cannot lose the war in Ukraine

Biden and his Nato partners helping Ukraine defend itself against Russia will all have come to the same conclusion about the visit to Moscow of President Xi Zinping. The Chinese communist leader is not going to allow his friend Vladimir lose the war in Ukraine. Xi will suport Putin all the way and while ostensibly advocating peace and an end to the war, he will see to it that the Russian leader gets what he needs to stop Nato-backed Kyiv from driving Russian invasion troops out of the country, even it means sending Chinese arms. I think there is now an even greater chance that Xi will agree to send munitions and ammo to help Russian troops maintain the attrition war with Kyiv's forces. And there is nothing that the West can do to stop it. More sanctions against China will not be enough to dissuade Xi from helping Putin. The two leaders are now so close in their anti-American strategy that it would be extraordinary if Xi refused to send arms. I believe he will do so, especially now that the US is accelerating its delivery of Abrams tanks and Patriot anti-missile missiles to Ukraine. They should have the older version of the Abrams, the M1A1, in the next six to seven months, as well as Patriots and both weapon systems should make a significant difference on the battlefield. So by the autumn, Putin will be pushing hard for China to join in and send arms. If Russia looks vulnerable or facing defeat by then, China I am sure will step in. Then we really will have a global struggle for power and domination.

Trump awaits arrest

Will he, won't he be arrested? Everyone is waiting for the moment when the police arrive on Trump's doorstep and take him away to be charged. There are two things worth noting while we wait. First, there was no dawn raid. Trump didn't get a wake-up knock on the door at 5am. So perhaps the Manhattan district attorney Alvin Bragg is still wondering whether to go ahead with indicting the former president, knowing what a huge historical step it will be. Second, he's getting a lot of flak at the moment with every senior Republican denouncing the anticipated arrest as a political, not a justice, move. Even those perceived to be Trump's rivals for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination are dismissing the idea of an arrest. This sums up the United States and the divisions that seem unassailable. The country will be spit down the middle if Trump is arrested and charged over the hush money paid to porn star Stormy Daniels to stop her revealing details of the alleged affair with the former president which Trump denies. Arresting a former president is one thing, but arresting him as he campaigns to return to the White House will be seen by all Republicans and certainly by his loyal fans as a deliberately timed plot to disrupt the Republican presidential campaign. Bragg will be a brave man if he goes ahead with the arrest because for ever afterwards he will be remembered as the first lawyer in public office ever to sign an arrest warrant for a former president. But if there is a prime facie case against Trump, then he should be indicted. Trump would remain innocent until/unless proven guilty and could carry on his presidential campaign in the meantime. I'm sure that's what Trump and his advisers will decide, and no doubt, will use the arrest to somehow boost his chances of returning to the White House.

The Dear Friends - Vladimir and Xi. Really?

It's all a bit sickening really, watching Vladimir Putin and Xi Zinping cosying up to each other. Two dear friends together bent on opposing everything western, anything where the US has leadership responsibilities. But it's all role-playing, especially on the part of China's president. I can't imagine he has any genuine affection for Putin and probably believes that the invasion of Ukraine is a huge mistake. But it serves his purpose to gang up with Putin against the US and so it will be all smiles during his three-day visit to Russia. US intelligence will be watching out and listening out for any sign that Xi is going to offer arms to his friend to continue pursuing the war in Ukraine. Xi is the Great Calculator, so I somehow doubt he will make this mistake. Xi wants to be seen to be the peacemaker and sending Moscow munitions from Chinese weapons factories would undermine if not ruin his strategy. So I think he will tell Putin it's a no to Chinese weapons but there could well be added support, financial or otherwise, which will help Putin. Whatever is offered, it's not going to end the war in Ukraine any time in the near future. Putin will get great comfort in the knowledge that Xi is on his side. It will boost his ambitions to grab as much of Ukraine as possible in the next nine months. One consequence of the love-in between Xi and Putin? Biden and co will have to accelerate the weapons flow to Kyiv and think seriously about sending much longer range missiles and advanced fighter jets. So the war is going to get worse and more dangerous and more destructive.

Mass protests are back in style

When the Soviet Union began breaking up there were huge, huge protests from people desperate to see the end of Moscow's tyranny. Leaders who had always looked supremely in charge fell by the wayside. Then came the so-called Arab Spring when protests spread like apocalyptic fires across the Middle East and North Africa, beginning in Tunisia, and once again autocratic leaders who theught they were safe from overthrow were overthrown. Now we have mass protests in Israel and France. Will the leaders of these countries also be forced out? In Israel, surely this is possible. The protests over Binyamin Netanyahu's determination to reduce the role of the Supreme Court to give the Tel Aviv government more power have been going on for 11 weeks. The people of Israel are fearful that democracy itself is at risk if the government is not properly held to account by the courts. These protesters are not wild revolutionaries.They are the opposite. They are demonstrating for their country's future and come from all walks of life, including the military. Netanyahu who won reelection only by forging a coalition with the most extreme and most religious parties, is acting tough and has instructed the police and security agencies to deal with the protesters. It will do him no good. If the protests continue on this scale, Netanyahu's government will fall. And probably quite soon. As for President Macron and the mass protests he is facing over his edict to force through a rise in the pension age from 62 to 64, he will fall only if he capitulates. After successive failures by all his predecessors to reform the pension structure, Macron has taken the tough decision and looks like he will stick with it. This is not democracy at stake, like it is in Israel, it's all about taking action to bring France into the 21st century. If only there were mass protests right now in Moscow and in every Russian capital to put pressure on Putin to stop his war in Ukraine. But apart from a few hundred mothers angry about the deaths of their sons and husbands, the Russian population has stayed relatively quiet. There is of course the fear factor, it takes courage to protest on the streets when Putin's security forces are watching. But let's hope for the sake of those facing death and ruin in Ukraine, the Russian people might find that courage to come out in public and oppose Putin.

Trump to be charged?

Donald Trump thinks he is soon to be charged with a crimninal offence and guess what? He is rousing his supporters to come and support him for the good of America, or for the good of the sort of America he wants to lead. Remembering what happened when he spoke out to his loyal tribes after the electoral college dared to say that Joe Biden had beaten him to the presidency in 2020, this new caLL-out is just as likely to lead to some pretty uncomfortable scenes, hopefully not violent ones like on January 6 2021. The charge, if it happens, is connected to the allegation that Trump was party, illegally, to the payment of $130,000 to porn star Stormy Daniels to stop her from talking/writing about her claim she had had an affair with him before he became president. Trump denies ever having had an affair with Daniels. But the district attorney in Manhattan apparenty believes he has enough evidence against Trump to bring charges. Trump has preempted any planned action by the attorney to give warning of maximum trouble if he goes ahead with an arrest. The former president and would-be next president is probably the most brazen politician ever to walk the streets of Washington. He refused to accept he lost the 2020 election and now it seems he thinks he is above the law and expects his supporters to back him all the way.We are one year and eight months away from the 2024 election and Trump may well win the Republican nomination. Good luck America.

The French atitude to retirement, oo la la!

The French are different. They have always been different. French workers believe they should spend as little time as possible engaged in work activities and that by the ancient age of 62 they should be retired with nice pensions and live the life of leisure. Well, lovely if you can get it. But the reality is that in this frantic globalised world and with longevity becoming a byword, most of us probably think that a government policy that all workers should retire at 62 is pretty daft. Even retiring at 65 seems a bit pathetic these days. My father carried on as a teacher at full stretch until he was 75 and that was years ago. Yet the French are going mad about President Macron's dictat, now approved by parliament, that the retirement age is to be lifted from 62 to 64. When the French protest, they seriously protest, often violently. For the rest of us in Europe, fighting to keep retirement age at 62 seems so yesterday. People live longer and work longer and that's the way it is. Non? Surely if the EU stipulates what shape a banana should be it could also dictate when EU workers can retire. I think the French gentlemen and ladies should get used to the idea that in most western countries, people realise that working longer - beyond the late 60s - is actually beneficial not just to their individual nations but also to themselves. Mental and physical activity helps to prolong life. But the French don't see it this way. They still believe it is their right to hang up their working boots at the youngster age of 62. Macron has a helluva battle on his hands.

Could a North Korea ICBM attack on the US breach anti-missile defences?

Hours before a meeting of the leaders of South Korea and Japan in Tokyo today (Thurs), North Korea launched a 70-minute test flight of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). Timed to provoke tensions as the two leaders met, the missile, capable of reaching the United States, flew for about 1,000 kilometres (620 miles) and fell into the sea between the Korean peninsula and Japan. Last month, rumbling through Pyongyang’s Sung Square under the watchful eye of North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un, eleven monster Hwasong-17 ICBMs raised the first doubts about America’s ability to withstand a nuclear strike by North Korea. Each Hwasong-17 is potentially capable of carrying multiple warheads, posing a huge challenge to the 44 anti-ballistic missile (ABM) interceptors, strung out in long lines of silos across bases in Alaska and California, expecting to respond to a “limited” ICBM strike by either North Korea or Iran. Unlike Donald Trump, who adopted an ultimately abortive “let’s be friends” policy with Kim, President Biden has shown little interest in pursuing a similar charm offensive with Pyongyang. However, the White House and the State Department have attempted on numerous occasions to restart talks on almost anything to ensure some form of communication with North Korea. All to no avail. That leaves the missile defences installed at Alaska’s Fort Greely and California’s Vandenberg as America’s last line of defence. In contrast to Ronald Reagan’s vision of a Star Wars space-based missile defence shielding the US and Europe from a mass Soviet nuclear strike, the interceptors were all about North Korea and Iran. Washington has stressed to a sceptical Russia and China that they are purely for combating a small-scale threat, not to undermine the nuclear deterrent of their superpower rivals. Moscow never trusted the US on this, but the fact that a mere 44 interceptors were installed should have convinced even doubting Russian generals that the American ABM system was not aimed in their direction. However, that reassuringly small number’s ability to handle a limited strike from North Korea is now in question. Some non-government nuclear missile experts in the US have suggested America’s missile interceptors could be overwhelmed by a mass attack from North Korea’s 11 Hwasong-17s. One was quoted as saying that the US interceptor had only been test-flown once at night and had failed. This proved, the expert said, that the system could not operate effectively in the dark and needed the sun to make it easier to track an enemy reentry vehicle carrying a nuclear warhead. The reality is more complex, although it is true that the American interceptors, each with only one kill vehicle on board, would theoretically be outnumbered if North Korea managed to get all 11 Hwasong-17 missiles to work and each of the multiple warheads performed as intended. This is far from guaranteed - some of the 11 on display in the streets of Pyongyang might even have been dummies. Missile defence is not just about intercepting incoming warheads. In terms of US strategic planning, there would be a far more holistic approach to a nuclear threat from North Korea, involving intelligence-gathering, warnings to Pyongyang and if necessary, preemptive action. “In a war scenario between North Korea and America, the US is not going to be waiting for Pyongyang to launch missiles before reacting, “said Ian Williams, deputy director of the missile defence project at the Washington-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies. “The reality is that as soon as there is notification of an imminent launch of nuclear missiles, the US would go after them, destroying them before launch,” he said. “There’s missile defence and there’s missile defeat. The US would use many methods to neutralise their missiles, including hypersonic missiles that are being developed to reach their target in a very short timescale,” Williams said. “Then there are electro-magnetic weapons that can disable their launch mechanisms and we would target their command centres to disrupt missile-launch orders. So it’s not just about how many interceptors we have got to take out their missiles. It’s about an overall homeland defence strategy,” he said. Nevertheless, the Pentagon, aware of North Korea’s increasing missile capabilities, has contracted Northrop Grumman to develop the next-generation interceptor for what is called the ground-based mid-course defence system. Each of the new interceptors will have multiple kill vehicles. This will change the dynamics of any future confrontation with North Korea, although the first test of this new system is not likely until 2026. The current interceptors have suffered from failed tests in the past, 40-50 per cent. But none of the tests have resulted from systemic technical faults . There were on-board battery problems with one interceptor and in a single instance, corrosion on the silo arm prevented an interceptor from launching. The tests go back to the prototype era of 1997 when initial failures would have been expected. The fact that there hasn’t been a test for a year or two might be a cause for concern. Interceptors that sit all day and night in silos should be flight-tested more regularly. But the military seem confident that the 40 deployed in three silo fields in Alaska and the four in one silo field in California are ready for action. The current defence budget allows for 20 more interceptor silos to be installed at Fort Greely. Work is underway. There have also been longstanding discussions about building another missile defence site in the east of the country and choices have been narrowed down to Maine, Ohio or New York state. But no money has yet been allocated in the budget. The interceptors are hit-to-kill weapons. There is no explosive charge in the kill vehicles. They have to find the incoming nuclear reentry vehicle from amongst the mass of flying junk created when the warhead separates from the rocket and booster systems, and hone in on the target. When the new interceptor with multiple kill vehicles becomes operational, each one will be capable of taking on several targets at once. But there will still be a set radius of action for every interceptor. In missile terminology they call the target being “in the basket.” Claims that the current interceptor can’t function at night are dismissed. The electro-optical computer technology fitted to the hit-to-kill system is similar in sophistication to the James Webb space telescope. “There is always enough ambient light off the moon, so there is no problem operating at night,“ Williams said.

The danger of war in the skies over the Black Sea

The risk of a clash between Russian and Nato forces has been ever-present from the moment President Putin sent his invasion force over the border into Ukraine nearly 13 months ago. The collision between the US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper surveillance drone and a Russian Su-27 Flanker fighter jet over the Black Sea was the latest and most dramatic example of how miscalculation or deliberate provocation could lead to a wider and more dangerous military confrontation. The Black Sea which has been one of the key strategic launch points for cruise missile attacks against Ukraine is also a crucial region for US-led Nato surveillance operations, monitoring the location and movements of Russian warships and troop positions in southern Ukraine. President Biden said that American troops would not be deployed to Ukraine to help the Kyiv forces defend against the Russians. But the Black Sea is open house for the western alliance and every type of surveillance and intelligence-gathering aircraft, manned and unmanned, is operating in the skies. The potential for mid-air conflict was never far away. US defence officials said that if the Russian fighter jet had hit the drone full-on it would have been seriously damaged, and possibly destroyed. The nightmare scenario for the US and allies operating over the Black Sea is the prospect of a clash in anger with the Russian air force that could lead to an escalation of unpredictable consequences. The Black Sea borders both Russia and Ukraine but also Romania, Bulgaria, and Turkey, all members of Nato. This has given the alliance a valuable and justifiable reason for launching surveillance operations over the Black Sea. The Pentagon calls these missions routine, playing a role in protecting the eastern flank of the alliance against the possibility of Russian aggression. As part of these routine patrols, the Reaper has been a key asset, capable of sustaining long-endurance missions and with its wide-range sensors has been sending back intelligence of Russian naval activities. This eye-in-the-sky intelligence has been shared with Kyiv. Reapers are based in Poland, Romania, Greece and Estonia. They have been active on a daily basis. But there are other manned aircraft which also have crucial intelligence-gathering roles. They include the RC-135W Rivet Joint electronic surveillance aircraft and the P-8 Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft. It was a Poseidon, again on a routine patrol, which helped confirm for the Ukrainians the location of the Russian Black Sea flagship cruiser, the Moskva, which was fatally struck by two Neptune anti-ship missiles on April 13 last year. Potentially risky interactions between Russian and Nato aircraft over the Black Sea have been fairly frequent since the war in Ukraine began. But the Reaper incident was the first physical clash between the US and Russian air forces. The defence ministry in Moscow denied there had been a collision but there was evidence that a Russian Su-27, one of two aircraft that harassed the Reaper drone had been damaged and was forced to land in an emergency at a base in Crimea.

How was the Silicon Valley Bank disaster not spotted a long time ago?

After the financial crash of 2008 you would have thought that the new regulations introduced by the US would have been sufficient to spot what was going on at this bank and steps taken to stop what was clearly an alarming mismatch between deposits and investment handouts. Small high-tech companies, many of them engaged in vital climate-change development programmes, queued up to get funds from the bank but no regulator thought to intervene after examining the maths. Now yet again the world markets are in turmoil, shares in banks are falling rapidly and millions of peoples' savings are wobbling. There is only one word that sums up this new financial disaster-in-the-making. Irresponsible. Irresponsible of the SVB's board to let this carry on when they must have known it was heading for the cliff edge. Now no doubt there will be further moves to tighten regulation but in the meantime will the US administration and other governments around the world be forced to use taxpayers' money to prop up failing banks, like they did in 2008. President Biden has said no but took rapid steps to make sure all the deposits in SVB were safeguarded. A second bank has already gone bankrupt and others may follow. Then what? That's the point when governments might have no other choice but to dig into taxpayers' money. At a time when everyone, except the super rich, are struggling with the increasing cost of living, that's all we need.

Now the Chinese president-for-life has his eye on a China-brokered deal in Ukraine

It's reported that Xi Zinping is now fixing to speak to Zelensky following his planned visit to Russia next week to see his strategic partner Vladimir Putin. It's clear what he is up to. Having successfully brokered a renewal of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran, the Chinese president-for-life is intent on masterminding a peace deal in Ukraine, acting as intermediary between Putin and Zelensky who are definitely not on speaking terms. Elected into office for a third term, Xi is going to get his fingers into every pie. He will see the next two years as A Great Moment for Chinese diplomacy/coercion/advancement. What with doubts over Joe Biden carrying on as president because of his age, it will be seen in Beijng as a time to intervene intervene intervene. If Xi can broker a peace deal in Ukraine, it would be a mighty slap in the face to Biden. Putin is never going to negotiate anything with Zelensky, so an intermediary like Xi could do his dirty work for him, pressurise Zelensky to give up any hopes of recovering Crimea and eastern Donbas in return for a massive injection of Chinese investment to rebuild Ukraine while keeping Kyiv firmly under Beijing's wing. Oh yes, I can see a huge momentum for a peace settlement in Ukraine on Chinese (and Putin's) terms. Republicans in the US might even secretly approve. If a Republican wins the 2024 presidential election, he or she is not going to want to supply arms and money to Ukraine "for as long as it takes". Putin knows this and so does Xi. So watch out, world, Xi Zinping is on the march.

Is Gary Linacre right about the new UK policy on illegal small-boats migrants?

In all the hullabaloo about BBC football presenter Gary Linacre and whether his tweet comparing the government's migrants policy with Germany in the 1930s breaches the corporation's rules on impartiality, the actual plan for illegal migrants who arrive in small boats across the Channel to be instantly deported has been swallowed up by tabloid anti-BBC mania. Linacre was suspended and the whole football TV edifice has crumbled overnight. I think Linacre went a little too far and as one of the best-paid presenters, albeit on sports not news or current affairs, his attack on Home Secretary Suella Braverman's plan of action for illegal migrants was bound to be controversial. Whether he should have compared her parliamentary statement to an era when Nazi Germany was getting into its stride is arguable. The Nazis were racists. Braverman, backed by Rishi Sunak, the prime minister, is not acting against illegal migrants because they are Afghani or Iraqi or Albanian or Somalian or whatever but because they are being criminally exploited by people smugglers, shoved into small boats to cross the English Channel at huge cost and enormous risk, and it simply cannot carry on like this. The government has tried and failed other ways to stop the criminals from abusing the rights and hopes of these poor people who want a better life in Britain. and ending the life-threatening crossings. Braverman's new policy sounds extreme: anyone crossing the Channel in small boats illegally will be banned for life from applying for asylum in this country and will be sent back to France or flown off to Rwanda for the rest of their days. It's supposed to create a disincentive to the thousands of refugees whose sole aim is to put their old life behind them and come to the UK which they have heard is compassionate and generous. The Braverman language doesn't sound either compassionate or generous. So you can see what Linacre was getting at. But it's an argument that would be better served by intelligent debates (if that's possible) in parliament rather than emanating from tweets by a very nice bloke who fronts the most popular football programme on the tele.

Xi Zinping's big coup

China's president has launched his third term in office with a mighty diplomatic coup: brokering an agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran to renew diplomatic relations. Agaist all the odds. Iran is a hate nation in much of the Middle East because of its malevolent activities, upsetting any chance of stability in the region. And of course Iran is the number one enemy for Israel. But the announcement yesterday of a rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran is a spectacular development, although Israel will be suspicious and angry because relations with Saudia Arabia have improved significantly in recent years. The most interesting ingredient in this diplomatic about-turn is China's involvement. As far as I know there was no American footprint in this behind-the-scenes brokering, so Xi Zinping comes out of looking like the supreme statesman. Xi will bask in the limelight and Washington will feel it has been pushed to one side. This is one of the main objectives of the Chinese leader, to undermine America's global standing and place China in the forefront of international affairs. The Saudi/Iranian coup has set him up nicely for his third term. We can expect more, much more in the years ahead and the US will have to keep on its toes.

China and Russia's strategic nuclear cooperation

Russia’s role in supplying China with highly enriched uranium for Beijing’s rapidly growing nuclear warhead stockpile is causing rising anxiety in Washington, a senior Pentagon official has said. China wants to increase the number of nuclear warheads from the current estimated 350-400 to 1,500 by 2035 which would approximately equal the strategic nuclear arsenal of the US – limited to 1,550 warheads by the New Start arms treaty with Moscow. Russia’s strategic partnership with Beijing is playing a crucial part in making that projected target possible, John Plumb , the Pentagon official, told a Congressional committee. The regular supply of enriched uranium, provided by Rosatom, the Russian state nuclear energy corporation, was being used in China’s fast-breeder reactors to produce plutonium for weapons, he said. “It’s very troubling to see Russia and China cooperating on this,” said Plumb, assistant secretary of defence for space policy. “They may have talking points around it, but there’s no getting around the fact that breeder reactors are plutonium, and plutonium is for weapons, and it matches our concerns about China’s increased expansion of its nuclear forces as well, because you need plutonium for more weapons,” he told the House armed services sub-committee on strategic forces. China has been building two fast-breeder reactors on Changbiao Island in Fujian province. The remote island is 136 miles off the northern coast of Taiwan. The first reactor is completed and the second is due to become operational in 2026. China says the reactors are civilian, each capable of generating 600 megawatts of electricity. But it is estimated they could also produce up to 200 kilograms of weapons-grade plutonium each year. This would be enough for around 50 nuclear warheads. Under the fast-breeder technique, plutonium is wrapped in uranium-238 and bombarded with neutrons which produces plutonium-239, the fuel for nuclear bombs. The Pentagon has warned that China is building hundreds of new silos to house intercontinental ballistic missiles and already has more land-based and mobile ICBM launchers than the US. The US total, also limited by treaty, is 400 Minuteman III ICBMs spread among 450 operational launchers. China’s nuclear programme is not restricted by the New Start treaty signed only by the US and Russia in 2010. The latest annual US intelligence report assessing threats facing America presented to Congress on Wednesday said: “Beijing is not interested in agreements that restrict its plans and will not agree to negotiations that lock in US or Russian advantages.” Two weeks ago President Putin suspended Russia’s participation in New Start in retaliation for the continuing US-led arming of Ukraine. But there have been no indications that the Russian leader plans to breach the treaty limits on strategic nuclear missiles and warheads. Commenting on the growing relationship between China and Russia, Avril Haines, director of US national intelligence, said in testimony to the Senate intelligence committee that the strategic partnership between China and Russia had “some limitations”. Questioned by the committee on the threat-assessment report, Haines said: “We don’t see them becoming allies the way we are allies in Nato.” The report warned that China’s expansion of its nuclear arsenal and the construction of hundreds more silos for ICBMs would give Beijing growing confidence and would ”bolster its resolve and intensify conventional conflicts”. In his evidence to the House sub-committee on strategic forces, Plumb said: “Our competitors have placed nuclear weapons, space warfare and long-range strike at the centre of their strategies to coerce and fight the United States and its allies and partners.”In a clear reference to China, the Pentagon official said America’s competitors were developing a range of capabilities to reach the US homeland, from “high-altitude balloons for intelligence collection to nuclear-armed hypersonic weapons”. “While the end state of the PRC’s [People’s Republic of China] nuclear force expansion remains uncertain, the trajectory of these efforts points to a large, diverse nuclear arsenal with a high degree of survivability, reliability and effectiveness and ever-opaque doctrine,” Plumb said. “This could provide the PRC with new options before and during a crisis or conflict to leverage nuclear weapons for coercive purposes, including military provocations against US allies and partners in the region,” he warned. Haines told the Senate intelligence committee that the US would continue to view China as “our unparalleled priority”. Beijing, she said, was challenging the US economically, technologically, politically and militarily around the world. The annual threat assessment concluded that China would maintain its cooperation with Russia as part of that strategic challenge to the US. President Xi Zinping, China’s leader, who has begun his third term in office, is expected to use all means to undermine US influence in the world, the report said. One area of acute concern was Beijing’s stated determination to reunify the breakaway republic of Taiwan with the mainland. The intelligence report said the Chinese military was pushing to meet Xi’s timescale of 2027 for building up sufficient manpower and firepower to deter or prevent the US from intervening to defend Taiwan in the event of a decision by Bejing to take the island by force. As part of its efforts to maintain strategic superiority over China, the Pentagon is engaged in modernising all three components, land/sea/ air, of the US nuclear deterrent.

The hunt for someone to run Biden's presidential campaign. So he IS going to stand?

I have never known such a coy political leader. President Joe Biden is waiting for the right moment to announce to an expectant nation that he will be running for a second term in office. Meanwhile, his aides are rushing around trying to draw up a shortlist of potential candidates for masterminding his campaign. It's a cart before the horse situation! Normally there would be no point looking for a campaign chief if you don't have a campaign to run. Right now Biden could go either way but the chances are he WILL go for a second term, despite his age. So I guess for the will he/won't he brigade it makes sense to start preparing the ground. Biden will need a whole team dedicated to keeping him in the White House. But for the potential candidates for the top campaign job, it would surely be helpful if he or she knew for certain that Biden was ready to go for it. Last year people supposedly in the know said that Biden would probably make his announcement in February. Well it's March already. Now there is talk that it could be in April. He might be wise to delay it further and wait until he gets a better idea who he might be standing against. He has several times declared that he is not afraid of Donald Trump and is convinced he can and will beat him. I wonder if he would be as confident if he has to fight the likes of Ron DeSantis, the super-assured governor of Florida. My money nevertheless is on Biden going for a second term. Despite all the worries about his health, mental and physical, and his wobbly moments on certain occasions, he looks pretty good most of the time and his decisions have, likewise, been pretty sound, if not bold. Also the comparisons between Biden and Trump are now so diverse - loud, whacky, outrageous and bonkers versus quiet, competent, straightforward and nice - that even the most remote American citizen living in a hut in the woods might come to the conclusion that another four years of the Old Chap might not be so bad after all.

Ukraine has a longer-range deadly weapon

Ukraine is now using a new-precision guided air-launched weapon which puts previously out-of-reach Russian targets in the firing line. For the first time, Ukrainian fighter pilots flying MiG-29s and Su-27s are launching strikes armed with the extended version of the US joint direct attack munition (JDAM-ER). The US had supplied standard JDAMs to the Ukrainian air force earlier in the war but this weapon only has a range of about 17 miles, restricting the area of operations. The longer-range version aided by a pop-out wing enables the pilots to launch the bomb 45 miles away from the target. It could become a crucial new weapon for hitting strategic Russian targets such as bridges in eastern and southern Ukraine. The Kyiv government has been calling for longer-range bombs and missiles both to hit targets currently too far for effective strikes and to protect Ukrainian fighter pilots from Russian air defences. The arrival of the American JDAMS-ER, albeit presently in small numbers, has been confirmed by General James Hecker, commander of US Air Forces in Europe. They were delivered three weeks ago. Until the US and Nato allies decide to supply Ukraine with advanced fighter aircraft, such as F-16s and Typhoons, the Ukrainian air force will have to rely on these longer-range precision weapons to carry out deep strikes. Ukraine’s MiG-29 Fulcrums and Su-27 Flankers have until now operated with the standard JDAMs and the US AGM-88 high-speed anti-radiation missile (HARM). HARM missiles have a range of about 30 miles. The arrival of the JDAM-ERs will not remove all risks from targeting Russian positions. To avoid surface-to-air missile defences, Ukrainian pilots will still have to fly in low for much of the journey. To achieve the maximum range of the new weapon, the pilots will have to pull up sharply and toss the bomb into its trajectory before dropping back to a low altitude to escape.

The casualty rate in Ukraine is beyond staggering

How much longer can Ukraine - and for that matter Russia - continue to suffer such a staggering high casualty rate? Into the second year of the war and the statistics are so appalling it is unimaginable what the killed and wounded toll will be at the end of 2023. The Ukrainians are understandably being shy about their war victims but we know from US military estimates that it's more than 100,000. It's probably true to estimate that overall, Ukrainians and Russians, the total figure is closer to 300,000. In Bakhmut alone, where the fighting is fiercest at the moment, the Russians are estimated to have suffered 30,000 dead and injured. How many Ukrainians, military and civilian, have died or been wounded in this nearly destroyed city is unknown. War is a relentless nightmare of killings and disfigurings. There is almost nothing positive that one can say about war of any kind, regional or global, other than when the right and moral side wins and the aggressor is soundly defeated. If only one could confidently predict that Ukraine will win and Russia will be defeated. It may happen, but in the meantime more and more people are going to die or suffer life-changing injuries. One can only feel total despair.

Will Ukraine be destroyed before there is a peace deal?

How many cities and towns in Ukraine are going to be reduced to rubble before some sort of ceasefire and settlement is agreed. Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine is currently being destroyed by Russian artillery, rockets and missiles. Whatever happens in this beleaguered city, whether the Ukrainians manage to hang on to it or the Russians sweep in and grab it, there will be nothing left. Like Mariupol on the Sea of Azov coastline which was hammered much earlier in the war, the scenes of devastation are apocalyptic. How can anyone still be living there. Most have evacuated but one day they will return and to what? In Turkey and northern Syria there is even greater destruction following the series of earthquakes. But that was Nature's responsibility. In Ukraine every piece of destruction has been caused by Man. The man being Vladimir Putin. Does he get satisfaction from seeing the devastation his bombers, rockets, missiles and artillery shells are doing? Will Russia play any role in the future in rebuilding Ukraine? Of course not. When the war is over and assuming that Putin will fail totally to conquer the whole country, then it will be the western powers and Japan and others who will come to the rescue. If the war continues on the same scale for another one or two years, then truly the rebuilding of Ukrainian cities and towns will cost trillions of dollars and take decades to complete.

Trump against RINOS (Republican in name only)

Donald Trump is in blistering form. At the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Maryland, he roused his fans with warnings of disaster for the United States unless he was elected president in 2024. His message appeared to be aimed in particular at the group of Republicans called RINOS - Republican in name only. It wasn't a capacity crowd at the conference hall but those who attended seemed to be all wild Trump supporters. Except for at least two people in the room, Mike Pompeo who fancies his chances of winning the Republican nomination and Nikki Haley who likewise thinks her appeal to Republican voters should be greater than her former boss's. Judging by the welcome Trump received during and after his 100-minute speech, I doubt either Pompeo or Haley have a cat in hell's chance of beating the former president. RINOS are basically anyone in the Republican party who doesn't support him. Trump is always incredibly rude about Mitch McConnell, minority leader of the Senate. And Mitt Romney of course. This is going to get ruder and ruder, and louder and louder. I think this is Trump's strategy for the future. Just shout more and more until everyone gets bullied into voting for him. Right now it seems to be working. Poor Pompeo and Haley, they were like minnows in a very large fishpond filled with barracudas. When he eventually makes up his mind to stand for reelection, the quiet hard-to-hear Joe Biden is going to have a tough job drowning out the Trumpian noise.

What's in Xi Zinping's mind re Ukraine?

I don't know how clever Xi Zinping is, but I do know he is obsessed with power both for himself and for the People's Republic of China. So anything he decides to do about the war in Ukraine will have little to do with bringing peace and stability per se but will be exclusively about how an end to the war will benefit China and his presidency. If he is seriously considering arming Russia, what would be his main objectives? Most people would say he would arm his partner and friend Putin in order to demonstrate that the long term future will be China and Russia versus the West. But that's only partly right, because Xi knows that if he does arm Russia there will be consequences for China's relations with the US and Europe which would all be negative. In my view Xi's main objective would be to give Russia an overwhelming advantage on the battlefield in Ukraine to force Zelensky and his western backers to sue for peace at any cost. And the cost would be very high for Kyiv, and for Washington too. If the Beijing maestro achieves that objective then he would be able to dictate the terms of the peace settlement and show the world that only Chinese military power and diplomacy can bring the war to an end. The US would be pushed aside, under this thinking, and Beijing would reign supreme. I'm not saying this is what is going to happen but I bet it's what Xi is thinking and hoping for. And if I'm right, then the US intelligence agencies were spot on, China IS thinking very seriously about arming Russia and might well go ahead and do it, not so much to help Moscow but to put Beijing in general, and Xi in particular, in the forefront of global politics.

The ten-minute chat between Blinken and Lavrov is better than nothing

Face-to-face diplomacy is always better than long-distance phone calls where facial expressions can't be seen and studied. So the ten-minute chat between Antony Blinken, US secretary of state, and Sergey Lavrov, Russian foreign minister, on Thursday at the G20 summit in Delhi was at least a reasonably good sign that the top diplomats from each country can hold a conversation, albeit briefly. No one imagines that anything truly positive occurred. They have not been mates at the best of times. But in the diplomatic game, being in the same room and getting your views across can only be helpful. Lavrov is a pretty cold fish and has been a loyal supporter of Vladimir Putin and Russia's invasion of Ukraine. But he has been around long enough to know that at some stage there will have to be a bit of wriggle room to at least begin a discussion about ending the war. Unfortunately that's still a long way off and even when discussions do begin, it's difficult to see how it can all be satisfactorily sorted out without one side or the other or both being humiliated. Nevertheless, the Blinken/Lavrov chat is the first positive sign since the invasion of Ukraine that all is not lost. Blinken appealed to Lavrov to hang on to the New Start nuclear treaty after Putin's announcement that Russia was suspending participation in the nuclear weapons reduction deal. But actually Putin didn't say he was scrapping Russia's paticipation in the treaty, nor did he say he intended to boost missile numbers to breach the limits agreed in New Start. So while Putin's declaration caused headlines around the world about a new nuclear arms race which probably pleased the Russian leader, they were not justified. It's as much in Russia's interest to have limits on nuclear weapons as it is for the US. Russia can't afford a nuclear arms race, so Putin's suspension was just that. Suspension. Lavrov probably said as much to Blinken. The two men should talk more often.

What to do about Iran and its nukes programme?

Very soon, possibly in the next six to 12 months, Iran and its nukes programme is going to be the number one priority on President Biden's list of foreign policy decisions, even above the war in Ukraine and relations with China. The Pentagon has said that Iran could take just 12 days to produce enough bomb-grade enriched uranium to build a nuclear device. The progress Tehran has made in enriching uranium to the 90 per cent level it needs for a bomb has been staggering. Ever since Trump scrapped the Iran nuclear deal negotiated by Obama, Iran has gone hell for leather to develop the fissile material for a nuclear weapon and now they are a mere one week and five days away from fulfilling that objective if they decide to go for it. It doesn't mean Iran will have a deployable nuclear ballisic missile ready for action. Having the right-level nuclear material and putting it in a warhead that fits on the tip of a missile would probably take another few months. But the moment Iran has succeeded in enriching uranium to 90 per cent, the countdown begins. Iran has already managed to get to 83.7 per cent, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency. So it won't be long. Then, when they have achieved the 90 per cent, what happens next? Successive US presidents have vowed that Iran will never be allowed to develop a nuclear bomb but what is the US prepared to do to stop Tehran moving from 83.7 per cent to 90 per cent? The way Benjamin Netanyahu is governing Israel, with violence between Israel and the Palestinians rising significantly, I suspect that the reelected Israeli leader will be knocking on the door of the Pentagon and the White House demanding action to stop Iran, and if he fails to get reassuring nods from the Americans he will go ahead and do what he thinks is required to safeguard Israel. It takes little imagination to predict what that might involve and then we will have yet another world crisis on our hands. So, time is running out and how Biden responds may decide whether Iran has nuclear bomb-grade uranium by the end of this year.

Harry and Meghan frogmarched out of Windsor home

It sounds like King Charles III is getting on smartly with reducing the size of the monarchy and booting out those who are not playing a part in the royal family business. I didn't think Charles was the ruthless type but it seems he is. Harry and Meghan were never going to be allowed to hang on to Frogmore Cottage in Windsor Park, despite lavishing £2.4 million from the sovereign's purse on upgrading, refurnishing and repainting it all to their taste. Even so, I'm sure Harry and Meghan fancied the idea of keeping Frogmore Cottage as their UK hideway whenever, if ever, they came to Britain. But according to whispering royal sources, they have been served an eviction notice by His Majesty and they've got to start getting all their furniture out and over to California. The furniture includes an ottoman bench and a chaise longue, my dear. All self-respecting country cottages should have an ottoman bench and a chaise longue. What I don't understand is if, as is being claimed, Prince Andrew has been told to move into Frogmore Cottage from his 30-room mansion with 98 acres and a swimming pool, also in Windsor Park, why don't they just leave all the furniture for Andrew to enjoy, instead of paying a fortune (presumably not THEIR fortune) to ship it all over to their mansion in Los Angeles? Haven't they already got tons of furniture in their American place? By all accounts Andrew doesn't want to leave his fancy lodge for a Meghan interior-designed cottage, so Charles could be facing a bit of a royal challenge. Are there such things as royal bailiffs? All this talk of evictions and ottomans has added to the debate going on about whether Harry and Meghan should attend Charles and Camilla's coronation in May. I'm not sure anyone really cares anymore. But my prediction is that Harry will come alone. Meghan will say she can't spare the time. While Harry is over he can do a quick check on Frogmore Cottage to make sure nothing has been left (light bulbs, curtain rails, door handles perhaps?) for his uncle to get his hands on when or if he moves into the cottage from his lodge.