Very confused.com

Trying to keep track of Donald Trump's mind is one of the great challenges of the year, and probably for the next four years - or even eight years, heaven help us. Most intelligent-thinking people might say: "Have no truck with that Kim Jong-un, don't even consider inviting him for a one-to-one chat". But Trump has held out the olive branch, saying it's not out of the question. Kim and Trump in the same room, shaking hands?! Surely not. This guy with the funny hairstyle (Kim, not Trump) has threatened thermo-nuclear war, and has liquidated opponents or aides he just stopped trusting or liking, sometimes getting his assassins to kill them with an anti-aircraft gun!!! Or so the South Korean intelligence people tell us. It would be like Churchill having tea with Hitler and discussing the various merits of trying to be a nice human being for a change. Can you imagine Trump making a statement after meeting Kim in, say, Honolulu, and spelling out how he had had frank and wide-ranging discussions with Mr Kim. Trump has said he believes Kim is a "smart cookie". Why? Because he has managed to maintain power at a tender age against all the hard-faced, much older military types who clap whenever they see him but probably would like to give him a good spanking. Dear Mr Trump, your smart cookie opponent in Pyongyang has stayed in power because he keeps on killing anyone who so much as raises an eyebrow. Is Kim sane, Trump keeps on being asked in interviews. He says he doesn't know because he hasn't met him (YET). Then he says Kim is a smart cookie! In other words, he can't be insane because he is a smart cookie? It's all very difficult to unravel. Trump's choice of words and phrases just causes more and more confusion. And now, for heaven's sake he wants to invite President "kill all drug traffickers and users" Duterte to Washington. The Philippines leader has got his police to kill so many people extra-judiciously that the country's prime coffin-makers must now be millionaires. Reminds me of the old coffin maker in Clint Eastwood's "A Fistful of Dollars". Clint was killing so many baddies the old boy could hardly keep up with the requests for coffins. Duterte isn't threatening thermo-nuclear war, but he's not a nice guy, Mr Trump. "Welcoming" a man who believes in shooting first and asking no questions later, could surely be embarrassing for the leader of the free world. Yes, Mr Trump, that's you!

Trump world

Poor Trump, after very nearly 100 days in the White House he has realised that he has gained power but lost his life. The president of the USA cannot just do what he wants, like go down the road to a restaurant. He did that when he was president-elect, but since becoming president his whole life has been marshalled by the Secret Service, and he clearly doesn't like it. Well, I guess it must be a shock. A former First Lady, was it Jackie Kennedy, expressed astonishment she could not retire to bed with her husband in the Lincoln bedroom in the White House without having a Secret Serviceman standing guard outside the door. So, life is tough, Donald. He has also confessed he never imagined being president would be such hard work. Did he never watch The West Wing series or Madam Secretary? Every day is just one major event after another. Decisions, decisions, decisions. Trump generally looks pretty relaxed but there must be moments in the Oval Office when he must say, or want to say, "Look get me a burger and leave me alone for ten minutes, I don't care if Xi is on the phone, tell him I'm otherwise occupied, and, no I won't take a call from Theresa, and tell that man Corbyn if he rings again I'll get my cyber boys on to him." So, am I feeling sorry for Trump? Well, no. You can't expect a lot of free time if you're the president. Ok, so you've had a bit of golf - Obama played more than any president in the history of the US - but you are now a seven-day-a-week leader for the next four years, minus 100 days. Will you want another term, Donald? I wonder!

New sheriff in town

The Dear Leader Kim Jong-un summons his closest aides. Not the same ones he summoned the last time, as three of them have mysteriously disappeared. Kim: "So, Trump has backed down, no war, the carrier is a poodle, we have a mighty victory." Aide 1: "Yes, oh mighty one, it is truly a great victory for your eminence." Aide 2 "Trump is a man with no backbone, all threats but no different from Obama." Kim: "Ha! I like that. You are promoted to be my Favourite Aide." Aide 2, looking intensely worried, manages a quick smile of gratitude. Kim, addressing his new favourite: "So Trump is not the new sheriff in town then?" Aide 2, looking desperately worried: "No, Dear Leader, he is not the cherie in town." Kim: "Sheriff, idiot, not cherie." Aide 2: "Of course, of course, Shur Iff." Kim: "Are you taking the piss, don't you know what a sheriff is?" Aide 2: "Oh great one, naturally, as it were, or put another way, I do definitely, and Trump isn't one." Kim: "You DON'T know, idiot!! You're fired. Haven't you watched High Noon, The Sheriff of Fractured Jaw, I could go on?" Aide 2: "No, oh mighty one." Kim: "Get out!" All the aides are whispering unobtrusively. One of them whispers that Senator Lindsey Graham had said after meeting with Trump over dinner at the White House that there was a new sheriff in town in a warning to North Korea. All the aides nod. Kim: "What are you whispering about?! Is this a plot?" Aide 3: "Oh great one and mighty leader and destroyer of Trump, we were laughing at the remark by Senator Graham that there is a new sheriff in town. You, oh beloved one, are the only sheriff in town." Kim looks pleased and runs his fingers through his hair, then wipes them on his tunic. Kim: "Sanctions, sanctions, sanctions. They will not destroy me. China will look after me. They promised." Aide 4: "Oh mighty one, are we to go ahead with the nuclear test? Kim: "Of course!! Nothing will stop me. That'll show Trump and that ghastly McMaster." Aide 4: "So would you like to do it today? It's all ready to go." Kim: "No, let's keep them guessing. Maybe tomorrow, maybe next week, when the moment is right." Aide 5: "Oh great one, Beijing did phone this morning and asked us not to go ahead with the test." Kim: "So keep them guessing too!! I want the world to know I am in charge of this great nation's destiny." All the aides applaud, dropping their notebooks and pens in the process. Kim turns to look out of the window and smiles.

Hacking fake news

So when will the Russians start hacking the UK election, and when they do, who do they want to undermine? Relations between the two countries are so low right now that it probably doesn't matter who wins in the eyes of Moscow. But perhaps they might fancy helping Jeremy Corbyn. After all, the British Communist Party has told its members to vote for Corbyn which might have made old KGB Lieutenant-colonel Vlad Putin smile a bit. Putin certainly won't want Boris back in the Foreign Office and he must be a little wary of having a second Iron Lady in Downing Street. Theresa is Maggie with less backbone but could be tempted to go all the way to Maggie-style ironclad politics. So I reckon Moscow and its bunch of unofficial official hackers will start doing their dirty work against some of Theresa's cabinet. So watch out Boris and others. The Russian hackers known as Fancy Bear, APT28 (sounds like a Second World War gunboat) and Pawn Storm (or is it Porn Storm?) are probably at this moment targeting the sex lives, bank accounts and childhood misdemeanours of Tory grandees and lesser folk to give old Jeremy a nudge towards the Big Prize. GCHQ, the signals intelligence boys and girls down in Cheltenham are on 24-hour alert to spot the first hacking attempts. The Ruskies are already having a go across the water, trying to hack into would-be president Macron's closest aides. They've only got two weeks to do their worst, and I expect Macron will survive. I wonder what skeletons are in Le Pen's cupboard. We may never know if the Russians reserve their hacking attention to Macron. There's going to be a pile of fake news around about Le petit Macron. I have to end this blog with the most wonderfully appropriate name. It belongs to the guy who runs a security company called Trend Micro that has been looking into all the hacking techniques used by the Russians against Macron and others and spreading fake news. The gentleman is called....Feike Hacquebord!! Can you believe it?

State of flux

All my American friends and friends in UK and Europe are in a state of political flux. Basically, we don't know where the hell we are all going. There is so much turmoil going on that it is times like this when I almost wish I lived on a Pacific island for total peace and tranquility, and pina coladas on tap! But then I would miss out on all the dramas and, being a journalist, dramas have always been an important part of my life. If anyone hasn't yet read my memoir, First with the News, you'll see what I mean - a lifetime of dramas (order on Amazon Books!!). So here in the UK we're supposed to be having the most predictable election campaign for generations, with a landslide victory for Theresa May and the Conservatives, and a total embarrassing defeat for Jeremy Corbyn and Labour. But you can never, NEVER be sure these days. Voters everywhere are in rebellious mood. Here in UK we're moving towards exiting the EU, and Mrs May, despite her previous Remain standpoint, is leading the field to get a good deal for us all. But the Eurocrats are going to snub her every way she turns. Those of us who voted Remain are still aghast at the thought of leaving the EU. Most of us are horrified, too, at the prospect of having Jeremy Corbyn as prime minister. Ok, so the likelihood is very very small. But it cannot be ruled out. Corbyn wants to scrap the UK's Trident nuclear missile replacement programme, even though Labour supports it. But there are masses of people in this country who think having four ginormous submarines armed with ballistic missiles capable of destroying half a dozen cities all in one go makes no sense any more, especially since our armed services have been so emasculated there's not a lot we can do anywhere in the world. But does that mean they will vote for Corbyn? I doubt it. But you never know. Theresa May might still be in for a shock in June. Then there's the French elections with this small man called Macron ahead at the moment of the in-your-face Marine Le Pen. No one knows much about Macron, he came from nowhere offering a vision of a new France. Well, they all do that. But he sounds quite good. He loves the EU and all that stuff, so he and Merkel, provided she is reelected, will get on fine. Marine Le Pen and Merkel would be like two bears growling at each other. The best thing about Macron is his wife. She was his drama teacher and is 25 years older than him. Wow oh wow! She'll be a sensational First Lady a la France. The tabloids will gloat at every public kiss. Miss, Miss, Miss, the news photographers will all shout out when they spot her hahaha! But good on you, Macron, when you spot the lady of your dreams you go for her, even though you were only just past sweet sixteen! So we'll know in two weeks whether the EU gets another bashing, with Le Pen in charge, or whether the schoolboy love Macron is directing from the Elysee. If Le Pen wins, it will be a nightmare for Theresa, if she wins, a nightmare for Merkel, if she wins, but, apparently good news for Trump and Putin. For my American friends who voted for Hillary, every day is a potential nightmare. What is the man going to do next? Perhaps that Pacific island is a good idea after all.

Kissinger, the ultimate eminence grise

I have met Henry Kissinger twice, each time for a meal in a very exclusive Mayfair dining club, along with about 20 other journalists. He was the honoured guest. He was and is a superstar, someone who opens his mouth and everyone around him becomes enraptured. It's like every word he utters has decades of careful thought and intellect and vision behind it. He has been around that long and been involved in so many of America's historic moments that it is difficult not to feel overawed. I WAS overawed each time. He also speaks in a low low gravelly, almost Lee Marvin voice, Lee Marvin as in Paint Your Wagon. So it's all pretty impressive. And here he is, at the age of 94 next month, still making waves and taking calls for help from Trump, and probably going into the White House via the back door, and, of course, going back and forth to Beijing to talk to his old mates. He must by now have earned the Glorious Medal of Esteemed Honour, or whatever the Chinese have for their most distinguished interlocutors. Kissinger is something else. Ok, he was heavily involved in the Great Bombing Scandal - Laos and Cambodia - in the Vietnam War, but he must have argued brilliantly to justify it. There is something comforting, in my view, about Kissinger still playing a role today, albeit behind the scenes. Trump must get a particular thrill picking up the phone to talk to him. Does he call him Henry or Dr Kissinger I wonder? If anything positive is going to happen between Washington and Beijing under Trump, the hand of Kissinger will surely play a part. I wish I could have one more lunch or breakfast with him before he departs this life. By the way, he is surprisingly short, though somewhat wide. But when you're concentrating on his pearls of wisdom, you somehow don't notice.

Trump's big hitters

Trump's administration is beginning to find its feet. Not all the big personalities have survived and others are starting to make their presence felt. It's always fascinating to see how members of a new administration try or fail to make an impact. After four months, things are settling down, but the big hitters are beginning to emerge. Steve Bannon was all set to be the big chief as far as the White House is concerned, but he appears to have lost out in the personality fight with Jared Kushner, Trump's son-in-law. So Bannon is still quietly in the background but no longer the bull in the Trump china shop. He may be on his way out. Hardly surprising since Trump has reversed so many things he promised to do during the election campaign. Bannon must be wondering what the hell happened to his hero. He also knows that most people in the White House probably don't like him. Even Trump is less happy than he used to be having his rottweiler at his side. He was swiftly removed from his role on the principal committee of the National Security Council once Lieutenant-General HR McMaster took over as National Security Adviser. Now there's a big star in the White House. He's a tough cookie, McMaster. He took on the job because he was confident he could persuade Trump to let him get on with it without being hampered by the likes of Bannon breathing down his neck. And so it has turned out. So McMaster is the king. Whatever Trump does next in Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan, it will have the McMaster signature on it. McMaster is the master of counter-insurgency. He's a Petraeus devotee, so he knows his stuff. It's reported (probably with some accuracy) that he wants Trump to take more decisive action in all three countries, in order to wrap up America's involvement in the three campaigns. So more troops for Iraq and Syria - currently around 5,000 in the former and 500 in the latter - and more troops for Afghanistan - currently around 8,400. Bannon will go spare, he wants Trump to focus on the big domestic issues and not make the mistake, as he would see it, getting more immersed in overseas wars. But McMaster has the stronger voice. He will want to finish the job properly, against Isis in Iraq and Syria, and against the Taleban in Afghanistan. The problem with the Afghanistan issue is that there will be no end to the Taleban. They will always be there, they will always want more territory, they will always want to return to government. They are totally different from Isis. They have a political cause, and most of them are Afghan, although they still have links to al-Qaeda. So pouring more US troops into Afghanistan might help the Afghan security forces to keep the Taleban at bay but it will be a never-ending job. The Taleban are never going to go away. Isis, on the other hand, can be defeated, at least in Iraq and Syria, and there's a good argument for investing more military in both countries to drive the militants out. Never mind the Assad issue for the moment, focus on destroying Isis in Raqqa and elsewhere in Syria and helping the Iraqis with even greater intensity to liberate Mosul. So, McMaster is the man to do all that. Then lo and behold, Rex Tillerson has at last emerged from his shell. He's still not talking to the press much, but he has definitely made more of an impact in recent weeks. And that's good. A strong secretary of state is vital for any administration, but until now, that component has been missing - indeed ignored by Trump. Now Tillerson is turning up in all the right places and making sensible comments. Mad Dog Jim Mattis is also still doing well, despite the hiccup over the missing carrier! I like the sound of Mike Pompeo, the CIA director. He made a very sensible speech the other day at a think-tank. I hope he will be a strong voice, listened to by Trump. By contrast, Daniel Coats, the director of national intelligence, is so quiet I don't think I know what his voice sounds like. After the gruff and demanding James Clapper in that role in the Obama administration, it's a difficult act to follow, but surely Coats could say something! Which of these individuals is going to have the loudest voice for dealing with North Korea: Tillerson, McMaster, Mattis, Pompeo or Coats? I put my money on McMaster.

Where's my ****** carrier?

It's Donald Trump's turn to be apoplectic. He was specifically told that he had sent a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier strike group off to the Korean peninsula. He had read it somewhere, or heard it somewhere, CNN, Fox News, Navy Times. He definitely saw it mentioned. So why the hell was it not there when Kim Jong-un held his stupid military parade, with giant intercontinental ballistic missiles, probably made out of paper mache? Trump to General Jim Mattis: "Mad dog, what happened?" Mattis: "Mr President, I was told it was heading for the Sea of Japan. I was also told the maritime exercise with the Australians had been cancelled because of it." Trump: "So why is it swanning around in the Indian Ocean, 3,500 miles away from all the action?" Mattis: "It's a miscomprehension, I mean a misunderstanding or probably a miscommunication, Mr President." Trump: "Mattis, this is the 21st century. We have the best communications system in the world, how can there be confusion about where one of my carriers is." Mattis: "It's the Navy's fault. That chap Admiral Harris, Pacific Command, it's all his fault." Trump: "So, tell him he's fired." Mattis: "But anything military comes under me. The buck stops with me." Trump: "So, should I fire you?" Mattis: "I serve at your pleasure, Mr President." Trump: "I'm the commander-in-chief, I'm the one in charge. I say, fire Harris." Mattis: "It was all a mix-up, Sir, I'm sorry. Admiral Harris didn't actually say he was sending the carrier to the Korean peninsula, he just said the Western Pacific." Trump: "So why did it turn round and go in the opposite direction, answer me that?" Mattis: "Well it went back before it went forward, as it were." Trump: "No carriers under my watch go back before going forward. Do I make myself clear?" Mattis: "Yes, Mr President." Trump: "It was a good week for me, and then this rubbish is appearing in all the papers." Mattis: "I'm sorry, Mr President. What you need is a diversion." Trump: "What sort of diversion?" Mattis: "Perhaps you could publish your tax returns." Trump: "GET OUT MAD DOG!!"

Trumpar.a.Lago

Sitting in his Bermuda shorts on a sunbed overlooking the Atlantic Coast, Donald Trump is probably thinking he's had not a bad last two weeks. He launched 59 Tomahawks at a Syrian airbase, dropped a mighty bomb on Isis in Afghanistan - the term "mother of all bombs" is right out of his sort of lingo - he threatened preemptive action against Kim Jong-un and told the Chinese what's what. If it hadn't been for his idiot spokesman Sean Spicer indirectly praising Hitler for never using chemicals against his own people (that's a Spicerism that will never be forgotten), Trump would have had reason to knock back the champagne. Except he doesn't drink alcohol. It's all about being tough, being seen to be tough, speaking tough and looking tough. He's good at that in a sort of apprentice-you're-fired way. But I'm not sure whether Kim Jong-un really cares about how tough Trump sounds. He is, after all, living in a world of his own, surrounded by gleaming missiles and he probably genuinely thinks the United States of America, the world's only real military superpower, is scared of him. Actually, whisper it, the US is rather scared of him because no one, not the Pentagon, nor the CIA, nor Lieutenant-General HR McMaster knows for sure what he's going to do next. Kim threatened thermo-nuclear war, but does he have any idea what that means? All Trump's advisers, like all Obama's advisers before him, are telling him that Kim wants one thing and that is for his regime to survive so that his future children and grandchildren can carry on the dynasty. So, if that is his objective, why threaten thermo-nuclear war and invite an overwhelming response from the US? So Trump thinks on this on his sunbed and decides he got the rhetoric about right, probably frightened Kim and his entourage of yes men, and got them all worried about the vulnerability of their ballistic missiles. Sending the carrier strike group bristling with Tomahawks and anti-missile interceptors was the obvious and easiest option. That's why it's such a joy being commander-in-chief of the only superpower. No other country in the universe can dispatch a carrier with destroyers, cruisers and submarines, and have a whole batch more back home or elsewhere in the world ready to join the armada at a nod from the president. Actually, everyone has been writing enthusiastically about the USS Carl Vinson carrier strike group sitting off the North Korean coast, but it turns out it hasn't arrived yet. It was last seen off Indonesia on Saturday. But, never mind, Kim knows it's coming, so if he tries any more missile launches heading for the Sea of Japan, when the carrier really is off the coast, then there still might be a clash. But not nuclear war. That, Kim, old chap, would be very very stupid. Big bang stuff will mean the end of you and the end of the Kim dynasty, and the end of Communism in North Korea, and the end of everything. So no gains there. Even Kim must know that as he combs his weird hairstyle every morning. So Trump can relax for a bit. He has got his choice for the Supreme Court sitting pretty and pronouncing eloquently, he's put Putin into a corner, hit Isis where it hurts, and caused humiliation for Kim. As for Assad, well that's still a tricky one, but I don't think Trump is overly bothered. He may have some chemical drums left in a secret shed, but he doesn't have nukes. In other words, nothing to threaten the US with, and those Tomahawks are a damn fine thing! If only Sean Spicer had kept his mouth shut.

Kim after missile botch

Kim Jong-un, seething, orders all those responsible for Saturday's missile disaster to come and see him. Seventy-five terrified military officers, displaying rows of medals on their uniforms, enter the room. Kim: "You have humiliated me before the whole world." No one even raises their eyes. Kim: "I am the great leader and you have shamed me. The Americans are laughing." Military officer with seven rows of medals: "Oh mighty one, we think the Americans did it." Kim, screaming: "It was NOT the Americans, it was you, all of you. You failed me. That rocket should have scared the Americans, now they are poking fun at me." Same officer: "Dear leader, we have proof the Americans did it." Kim, screaming again: "Proof, what proof?" Officer: "Sir, honoured one, they jammed the telemetry, they cyber attacked our beloved rocket. There was nothing wrong with it. Everything had been checked. It was all go." Kim: "Did any of you, ANY of you, make any phone call to ANYONE revealing where the rocket was heading for?" All 75: "No, dear leader, oh mighty one, oh gracious commander-in-chief, we spoke to no one." Kim: "None of you mentioned it to your wives or daughters or mistresses." All 75: "No, great leader, only we knew the missile was heading for Misawa." Misawa airbase in northern Japan is home of the US Air Force 35th Fighter Wing. Kim: "The trajectory was correct?" All 75: "Yes, oh beloved leader, it would have fallen just short of Misawa." Kim: "If the Americans destroyed our missile we must take revenge." All 75: "Yes, oh mighty one, revenge." Kim: "Prepare another missile. This time we will hit Misawa. That'll show the Americans who's boss around here." Most senior officer: "Dear leader, that would lead to overwhelming retaliation by the Americans." Kim: "Who said that?" Most senior officer: "It was me, oh great one." Kim shouts to no one in particular: "Take him out and shoot him." Most senior officer: "Oh great leader, if I am shot it will be seen in the US and Seoul as further evidence of our humiliation." Kim: "Take him out and shoot him twice." Most senior officer is dragged away. Kim, exploding in anger, demands that all 75 be taken out and shot. Kim: "I will have my revenge. The Americans will pay. You'll see. Aide enters the room: "Oh great one, Beijing is on the line." Kim: "Tell them to go **** themselves."

Inside Kim Jong-un's inner circle

Top advisers stand around the Dear Leader as he sits behind a huge oak desk eating lobster thermidor (lobster flown in from Shanghai). His dear wife sits quietly, very quietly, a few yards away. Kim:"So, tell me, will Trump attack?" Top military adviser:"Yes, oh dear leader." Kim: "When?" Same adviser: "Probably as soon as we carry out a beloved sixth nuclear test. All is ready, my dear leader, oh great one." Kim: "Trump is all bluff and more bluff." Same adviser: "You are I am sure absolutely correct, oh great one. But..." Kim: "BUT?!" Same adviser, taking two steps backwards: "Obama was more bluff. Trump is different, in my humble opinion." Kim: "We've had these American so-called carrier strike groups here before and nothing happened." Same adviser, looking extremely worried: "Yes, oh dear leader, but this carrier is, how shall I put it, more threatening than the other ones." Kim: "No one threatens the Hermit Kingdom!! Get me another lobster thermidor, this one has gone cold!!!" Same adviser starts to back out of the room. Kim, shouting: "Not you, stupid! Where's my wife?" Wife: "I'm here my excellent one and dearest husband and light of my life etc." Kim, looking slightly confused: "Honoured wife, perhaps you could....." Wife, getting up: "Yes oh mighty one, I will speak to the cooks who are always ready to serve you oh dearest better half." Kim: "So, General what's your face, I want the carrier destroyed immediately." General: "Yes, sir, my greatest leader, but what about the beloved nuclear test?" Kim: "After I have finished my lunch, we will do it. I will be there to show to the world and to those running dogs in Washington that nothing, NOTHING, will stop me. I owe it to my beloved father and grandfather. Do I make myself clear? NOTHING!!" General: "My great leader, all will be ready after the lobster." Kim looks at his general to see if he is taking the piss. The general is scribbling furiously into his notebook, writing the word "nothing" 12 times. Kim starts eating another plate of lobster thermidor, brought in by his wife on a silver tray. Kim, with his mouth full: "Fill the barrier!!" General: "Fill the barrier, oh dear leader?" Kim, looking apopleptic and swallowing hard: "Kill the carrier you stupid oaf." General: "Of course, of course, oh mighty one, I'll see to it straightaway." General exits fast. Kim: "I'll show that Trump. The world is going to take notice of me. I am the victor. The glorious dynasty lives on. Did you get that down?" Everyone in the room, except the dear wife, has been writing in their notebooks. They all nod their heads. Kim, burping loudly: "Right, let's show the world what we've got." Everyone bows, including the dear wife.

Bomb away!

There's carpet bombing and then there's the Mother of all Bombs, just one of them. Different ways to prosecute a war. You do wonder why the Trump military decided to drop a single Massive Ordnance Air Blast weapon (MOAB) to hit Isis in Afghanistan yesterday. But under Trump it's all about signals. A blast at Isis means a warning blast to Kim Jong-un, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, maybe Putin and anyone else in the Trump crosswires. Big bomb signal. While it certainly attracted the world's attention, it does somehow seem a little over the top, although General John Nicholson, the US commander in Afghanistan, insisted it was the right munition to use because they wanted to blast all the tunnels Isis had been constructing. I don't expect General Nicholson was thinking of signals to anyone else. But Trump definitely was. He described yesterday's MOAB bombing as an "event". It sure was. The point is, what is going on right now? Under Obama, there was plenty of military action. Don't forget the proliferation of drone killings of terrorists in Pakistan, Yemen, Somalia, Libya etc. But did anyone venture to suggest to Obama that it was time for a MOAB. I somehow doubt it. The military always speak of the immense care taken over every strike to make sure "innocent" people are not killed or wounded. But war is war, and every general accepts that there is always a risk of civilians being killed. But does Trump worry about that sort of thing when he goes to bed? I'm sure he does. He was, after all, emotionally horrified by the sight of children suffering after the chemical weapons attack in Idlib, in Syria. But does he worry as much as Obama did? I think the MOAB "event" says a lot. He is now President Donald MOAB Trump.

What did the Russians know?

Is it possible that the Russian military knew their Syrian regime allies were about to drop chemical bombs on civilians in the northern Syrian town of Idlib last week? There were supposed to have been some Russian officers present at the airbase from where the airstrike was launched. So, did they know? The US believes they did, or if they didn't, they should have! And was this airstrike personally ordered, or at least personally approved by Bashar al-Assad? For us simple souls it seems incomprehensible that the Syrians and/or Russians actually thought dropping chemical bombs filled with sarin nerve agent would be a good idea at this particular juncture in the six-year war. But could it have been a deliberate ploy to see how Trump would react, in other words, to test out his threshold for taking action. Trump had said he didn't want to get sucked into the Syrian war, but what would tempt him? A few nasty pictures on CNN, perhaps, showing Syrian children crying in pain after being coated in chemicals from the sky? Russian/Syrian logic here is difficult to grasp. This is true KGB-style Kremlinesque thinking. Kill 80 or so people to see how Trump will react!!! Can that be the strategy here? If so, then what. Does that make it easier for Putin and Assad to plot the future, knowing that Trump reacts emotionally when making a decision? This sort of thinking bodes ill for the future, for all of us. Putin trying to outplay Trump, Trump wanting to punish Putin, Putin then playing the statesman masterstroke, calling off the war in Syria but on his terms. He tried that one with Obama over the use of chemical weapons in Syria in 2013, and he won that one. I think the former KGB lieutenant-colonel is up to his old tricks again.

Tillerson's toughest trip

Poor Rex Tillerson. He took the job of secretary of state because he had an absolute IN with Vladimir Putin. They were almost mates. Tillerson had some Russian award. So he, successor to Hillary Clinton and John Kerry, was going to be the one man to warm up relations with Russia and make the world look and feel a safer place. Now that's all gone into a deep black hole. Putin is so angry about Trump's Tomahawks and his threat to change the regime in Damascus, he may even snub his old mate Tillerson and refuse to see him. May be ask for the award back!! Relations between Moscow and Washington are frozen solid, even more than under Obama. And I won't even mention Boris Johnson. His decision to cancel his trip to Moscow smells like an order from the White House. Trump wants Tillerson in Moscow, and no one else right now.If there's going to be a slanging match, Trump doesn't want Boris adding his bit. So it's down to Tillerson to save the world. But has he got what it takes to make Putin see sense and push for a new peace deal in Syria, without the ghastly "war, what war?" Assad in charge? Putin, you have to always remember, is an old KGB hand. He isn't going to give in to anyone, certainly not to his old mucker Rexie Tillerson. As for Trump, they haven't even met yet, So Putin stands ready to say Niet Niet Niet in good old-fashioned Andrei Gromyko style. You recall the guy, the one with the sour face and Homburg hat who loved the Cold War and the whole language of hostility and suspicion and Kremlinesque intransigence. Putin, despite his smile and half-naked horse-riding and judo body, is from the same school. "You want me to drop Assad? Niet. You want me to join you in solving Syria? Niet. You want me to come to Washington? Niet. You want to buy a dacha outside Moscow? Niet. You want me for once to say Da? Niet".

Trump dons superpower clothes

It's amazing what a few Tomahawk cruise missiles can do for a president's self-esteem and reputation around the world. Everyone has had to sit up and take notice. Trump's action has rewritten the front pages of every American newspaper and every national newspaper published from Beijing to Mogadishu, and, particularly in Moscow. Would Hillary Clinton have authorised an attack on Syria after the chemical weapons outrage? If she was president, I think she probably would have done. She always had a tougher, more hawkish attitude when she was secretary of state than the president she served. But no one had much idea whether Trump was going to be interested in getting involved in other people's wars. Now, everyone knows that Trump is prepared to go military when the circumstances demand it. Does that make the world a safer or more dangerous place? It's impossible to say at this stage. The launch of 59 Tomahawk cruise missiles will not resolve the crises in Syria. The chances are, they will make it worse, because Putin will be wanting to seek revenge against the man he thought was going to be his friend. Putin is not going to let go of Bashar Assad. He is his ally. He needs Assad in power to maintain a strong Russian presence in the Middle East. He has bases in Syria. He wants to keep them. Much will depend on Trump's new mood. Authorising Tomahawks, the easiest option for him, will have given him a taste of the sort of power which he will never have experienced as a top businessman. He will undoubtedly launch more Tomahawks if Assad dares to use chemical weapons again. He might even launch airstrikes to ground Syrian fighter aircraft. But the Washington component, always a little hesitant under President Obama, is now a definite feature in everyone's mind. Whether that will turn out to be a positive ingredient in Syria and elsewhere, it is difficult to predict. Putin must have had a nightmare few days. He is probably an angry man. And that's very unlikely to be good news for the rest of us.

Trump did it!

This could be the moment when we and the rest of the globe start to think differently about Donald Trump. He made a decision, he wanted instant action and then he went back to dinner with President Xi Zinping at his Florida resort. All wrapped up nicely, thank you. I just cannot imagine Obama doing that. First, he wouldn't have wanted to do anything to disrupt dinner with the Chinese president, second he would have wanted more time to make a decision, and third, he would probably have delayed taking action until he had sought the advice of allies and possibly formed a coalition to strike Syria. That may be unfair, but I always recall talking to a high-up official in Obama's National Security Council who told me: "The worst thing about Obama for us was that he just couldn't make a decision. He had all the options in front of him but he couldn't decide which one to go for." To be totally fair to Obama, he did make up his mind about Osama bin Laden. He chose potentially the most dangerous option which was to send in a Seal team to kill him at his compound in Abbottabad in Pakistan, even though the intelligence on his whereabouts was less than 80 per cent. He rejected the US Air Force option which was to send a B2 stealth bomber to destroy the compound. But over Afghanistan, Obama prevaricated for months before he eventually decided to send a surge of troops there, although not on the scale the military wanted. Trump has now made four military decisions: he approved a stepping up attacks on terrorists in Yemen and Somalia, he agreed to more aggression and greater flexibility for commanders to attack Isis in Iraq and Syria, he gave the go ahead for the special forces attack on an al-Qaeda compound in Yemen in January which didn't go so well, leading to many civilian deaths, and then he said an almost instant yes to bombing Assad's airbase from where chemical weapon strikes had been launched. No delay, just: "Go for it." Now that sort of presidential decision-making isn't necessarily going to work each time and could even lead to disaster. But the fact is, strong leadership in whatever field, whether military, economic, strategic or domestic, has to be better than weak leadership, especially when it involves the world's only superpower and the West's leading nation. Everyone, from Putin to Kim Jong-un to Xi Zinping to the ayatollahs in Iran will take notice. I suspect there are two people in Washington who will be doing high-fives right now: General Jim Mattis, the Defense Secretary, and Lieutenant-General HR McMaster, the National Security Adviser. They both will have known of the importance of striking at Assad this time. That would have been their advice. Trump agreed without demur.

Lines lines lines

Please Mr Trump, no red lines unless you mean it. Obama tried it once the last time Assad was throwing chemical bombs around, and his red line was pretty well the end of Obama as an international leader and the beginning of Assad's next phase in his extraordinary survival game. Now, after the latest appalling bombing with sarin nerve agent, killing up to 100 people, Trump has used the same dodgy word. Well at least he didn't say Assad had passed a red line. He just said Assad had crossed many lines. But what does it actually mean? Can the US really go in and start bombing Assad or his army? Russia, Hezbollah, Iran would go mad. it would just make the complicated mess in Syria even more disastrous. But Assad has to be stopped somehow. What will Trump come up with? Putin and his cronies will do nothing except continue claiming that it was the rebels who did it. No one, not even Xi Zinping I shouldn't wonder, believes that story. It's time Assad was taught a serious lesson. Will Trump bomb the Syrian airbase thought to be the one from where the regime aircraft took off? Will he shoot down Syrian air force fighters? This is a dangerous moment. But if he does decide to attack Assad in some way, irrespective of what the UN Security Council wants, it will be a tumultuous moment for the new president. It will send a huge warning signal to Putin and an even bigger warning signal to Kim Jong-un. And, by the way, bombing Assad will do Trump no harm at all. It will be him telling the world that he's not Obama. When he talks of a line, or lines, I suspect he really means it. We thought Obama really meant it when he issued his red line ultimatum to Assad, but he backed off. I somehow think Trump will not back down. The US could be bombing Assad before the weekend, maybe even tonight. Perhaps, after all the indecision and weakness of the Obama administration, it is Trump's moment. It won't help to bring peace to Syria but it will punish Assad for waging war against his own people and make life difficult for Putin. That would be a pretty good result.

Xi Zinping briefing part three

A confused Chinese President sits down for his third briefing in three days. President: "Look my plane leaves in two hours. What is it now?" First adviser: "Mr President, you can relax, I've just had that nice Mr Kushner on the phone and he says your meeting is not going to be about making any decisions, it's just supposed to be about airing our views." President: "Airing? What does that mean?" Second adviser: "It's what you put into balloons to make them fly, Mr President." President: "We're going to be flying balloons?" Third adviser: "Well, probably more like kites." President: "Flying kites or balloons, which is it?" Fourth adviser: "Whatever you want, Mr President. But you don't have to bring either the balloon or the kite down. Just fly it." President: "You're talking in riddles." Fifth adviser: "Exactly, Mr President. That's what you have to do with Trump. Talk in riddles. We Chinese are supposed to be very good at that." President: "Are you sure that's what Mr Kushner had in mind, balloons and kites?" Sixth adviser: "Oh yes, Mr President. Just float your ideas and have a nice chat but don't shake hands with Trump on anything." President: "What about his obsession with trade and Kim Jong-un?" Seventh adviser: "Just be enigmatic." President: "But I'm always enigmatic." Eighth adviser: "Well of course you are, Mr President, it's part of the natural Chinese way." President: "Shall I tell him to stop sending aircraft carriers into the South China Sea and warn him that if he gets too close to one our islands there, we'll blast it with one of our ballistic missiles?" Ninth adviser: "No, Mr President, just balloons and kites, no carriers." President: "But I'm fed up with those American carriers coming into our sea and lauding it around like they own the place." Tenth: "None of us like it, Mr President, but if we have a war in the South China Sea, we think that the Americans would win." President: "What!!! You told me last week we were invincible." Eleventh adviser: "Yes, but I read a report this morning which quoted a former American Pacific Command commander saying that China would definitely lose a war with the US." President: "But that's just rhetorical rubbish." Twelfth adviser: "Maybe, but I think we should err on the side of caution." President: "So just balloons and kites?" Thirteenth adviser: "That's correct, Mr President, balloons and kites. And enjoy the swim." President: "What if he offers a golf match?" Fourteenth adviser: "Say no." President: "Why?" Fifteenth adviser: "You've never played golf, Mr President." President: "True, I guess that is a bit of a handicap." Uproarious laughter from the 15 advisers.

Brexit - the least of our problems

Sorry Theresa May, sorry Donald Tusk and all the others involved in Brexit and the future of Europe etc, but this is small beer compared to what else is going on in the world. North Korea and its demotic leader Kim Jong-un are trying to wind up the world into a frenzy with their madcap nuclear weapon and ballistic missile programmes, Trump is vowing to go it alone in dealing with Pyongyang - heaven help us what that means - Putin and Assad are engaged in trying to kill as many Syrian rebels as possible before Isis is driven from Raqqa, using chemical weapons - well one or other gave the order that killed dozens of men, women and children early today - and hunger in Sudan is destroying a whole nation. The world is going murderously crazy. It's a time when all right-minded people and nations should stick together. And we, the still just United Kingdom, are breaking away from Europe and going it alone. It is total utter madness. The negotiations haven't even started and already there's bickering, snide remarks, hostility, rebuffs, enmity. Tusk always looks like he has a bad taste in his mouth. Theresa is doing her best to put together something she opposed not that long ago, but as of today I can see it all going horribly wrong. We'll end up with a messy, messy, very expensive divorce that does no one any good. When we all need to be holding hands to stand up to Isis and Kim Jong-un and Putin and Assad, we're flapping around, stamping our feet like spoiled brats and trying to split Europe from top to bottom. I like Boris, our foreign secretary, always have done, but does he really honestly believe that breaking away from Europe is in the UK's best interest? Does he? Do you, Boris? I don't think Theresa does. The only one who seems to be fanatically pleased with the whole idea is Michael Gove, and I know he has a good brain. So what's he thinking? Does he sleep well at night? Does he not know that this country is doing the most outrageously stupid thing? We need unity, we need friends, we need our European family of nations. We need strong allies. And what is Brexit doing? Making all our friends and allies in Europe pissed off with us. But Brexit is way down the list of things going wrong right now. In Pyongyang, Kim is plotting to end the world, and probably laughing at all the Brexiteers.

Xi Zinping briefing part two

Xi Zinping was all primed for his visit to the Florida resort to see Trump when the US president produced a shocker, what could only be described as a challenge to Beijing. In his interview with Lionel Barber, the very clever editor of the Financial Times, Trump declared that he was prepared to go unilateral in stopping North Korea's nuclear programme, whatever China did or didn't do. The ugly phrase, military option, was sent into the ether. So the Chinese president had to go back for another briefing from his advisers. No talk of swimming trunks this time. President: "So, now what are we going to do? We can't have Trump parading around in our neck of the woods, slinging missiles about and causing mayhem. We have to stop him." First adviser: "Well, Mr President, all you have to do is tell Trump North Korea is a serious business but that whatever threat they may pose, Beijing will sort it out." President: "But I don't think Trump will believe me." Second adviser: "You have to convince him, Sir." President: "But there isn't anything we want to do against our brethren in the Hermit Kingdom. We do a lot of trade with them." Third adviser: "Yes, we do, but we have to convince Trump that we and only we can resolve the North Korea issue." President: "Yes but what does that mean?" Fourth adviser: "It doesn't matter what it means, all you have to do is tell Trump China is a mighty nation and we're in charge. No one else can deal with Kim Jong-un." President: "But we can't handle Kim either. I spoke to him this morning and he slammed the phone down." Fifth adviser: "Yes, he's a petulant young man. He eats too much Western food, all those deliveries of lobster and prawns. Can't be good for him." President: "Hmmm, wish I could have lobster and prawns every day." Sixth adviser: "Did you see what that terrible man Senator John McCain said the other day about Kim?" President: "No, I never listen to Senator McCain." Seventh adviser: "He called him a crazy fat kid." President: "Ho ho ho, that's very funny." Eighth adviser: "Mr President, this is our dear ally, it's not a laughing matter." President: "Well, whatever he is, he's not in the mood to be told to stop playing with his nuclear weapons." Ninth adviser: "I'm sorry, Mr President, but you have to tell Trump to drop any thought of military action. It would be a disaster for all of us. Another Korea war and you know what happened then." President: "Perhaps I should cancel my trip to Florida." Tenth adviser: "No, Mr President, that wouldn't look good. Perhaps, despite our advice yesterday, you should take your swimming trunks, and smile at least twice. Trump might be fooled then into thinking you're going to do something about beloved Kim." President leaves to pack.

Xi Zinping prepares for Trump

Ornate room with chandeliers in President Xi Jinping's office in Beijing. President enters, his advisers stand up and bow, and they all sit down. President: "So, first of all I'm meeting Trump at this ridiculous Florida resort of his, not the White House. What is the significance of this, is it a snub, how do I react, do I smile or look angry, what do I wear and shall I take my swimming trunks?" First adviser:" Definitely no swimming trunks, Mr President. Naturally you are a very good swimmer but a photograph of you and Trump in the sea together could be dangerous. He could try and push you under the water and the headlines will say, 'Trump wins in South China Sea struggle'." President:"Hm, yes good advice. But do I wear a suit or put on that ghastly baseball shirt Obama gave me?" Second adviser: "I don't think that would be appropriate, Mr President. Trump will wear a blue suit and orange tie, and maybe a red cap." President: "Shall I wear a cap? I have 23 in my cupboard, from Bush and Obama." Third adviser:"No, sir, you don't look good in caps. Or rather, what I meant to say was that the dignity of your eminence will be undermined by the wearing of an American baseball or football cap." President: "Anything else?" Fourth adviser: "Mr President, I think you should smile only one, perhaps when you part after the meeting to show that you have won all the arguments." President: "Good thinking. Anything else?" Fifth adviser: "We're wondering whether you should shake hands or ignore him when he offers his hand." President: "But protocol says I should shake his hand." Sixth adviser: "Protocol, schmotocol, these days we don't worry about that. Trump refused to shake Merkel's hand. That looked good, we think." President: "But if I don't shake his hand, that could be interpreted in many different ways." Seventh adviser: "Yes, sir, but we think the interpretations will be good for us, sorry, for you, and bad for Trump." President: "So, let me sum up. No baseball cap, no swimming trunks, no Obama shirt, one smile, no handshake...have I left anything out?" Eighth adviser: "Oh, just one thing, don't even listen when he mentions the islands in the South China Sea, ignore his trade appeals and tell him you will deal with North Korea but don't say how." President: "Right. And any advice about meeting at this dreadful Florida place?" Ninth adviser: "Just enjoy it, Mr President, the lobster is supposed to be fantastic."