Steak and corn diplomacy

So no banquet for General Kim Yong-chol in this New York apartment where the summit-saving dinner was held between the North Korean former spy chief and the US former spy chief and now Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo. Steak and corn were on the menu. At least it wasn't the statutory burger and fries, although I suspect General Kim had been longing for a McDonald's. He looks like a Big Mac man to me. So does Pompeo actually. When you have probably the second most powerful North Korean in the same room for dinner, do you ask him how he would like his steak: bloody, rare, medium or well-done? General Kim will have done his homework, and even if he has his steaks well cooked in Pyongyang he wouldn't have wanted to seem out of gastronomic fashion, so I expect he played safe and asked for medium rare. Pompeo would then have asked for the same, for diplomacy's sake if nothing else. Corn is corn, so there isn't much to quibble about there. The key thing is, whether the food was acceptable or not to the stoney-faced North Korean ex-spy chief, how did the chatting go? There are ocasions when being the US Secretary of State must be great fun. There you are, with all that CIA knowledge in your head and you're facing a man who will go back to his boss in Pyongyang with one of two simple messages. No 1: "Chairman Kim, it's thumbs up for the summit." Or No 2: "Chairman Kim, it's all off, the Americans cannot be trusted." That's a heavy burden for Pompeo. He has to get the tone right, the reassurances copper-bottomed but at the same time he needs a pledge about North Korea's nukes. But I doubt General Kim will give too much away. No real detail. General Kim, only used to spying on Americans, not actually talking to them, will be assessing the big man in front of him. They met in Pyongyang, so they do know each other. But he will be asking, can Pompeo be trusted? And, therefore, can Donald Trump be trusted? Well, of course, exactly the same questions will be going through Pompeo's mind. Can his dinner companion be trusted and will Chairman Kim listen to him when he returns to Pyongyang? After two days of talks I reckon each man will come to an historically important conclusion. Pompeo and Kim Yong-chol will sort of quite like each other - not instant friendship and undying affection but respect, curiosity, fascination and a degree of comprehension. It just might work but Pompeo is the leg man in this tricky negotiating. The ultimate test will be when Trump and Chairman Kim meet in Singapore - if they do meet. From the moment they shake hands, it will be about personal chemistry, like when Margaret Thatcher first met Mikhail Gorbachev and announced she could do business with him. Perhaps General Kim will get his American burger at lunch today and after a swift tour of the great New York city will fly back to Pyongyang with a glowing report of peace in our time. It's very unlikely but not impossible. Impressions and chemistry can play a big role at historic moments. And a good burger!

Former North Korean spy chief to get the full treatment

General Kim Jong-chol has never set foot in the United States. So the former North Korean spymaster who has more skeletons in his cupboard than even Donald Trump will be given the full treatment when he arrives from Pyongyang for talks about the on-off-on summit between Trump and his boss, Chaiman (Marshal) Kim Jong-un. It will be quite an eye-opener for Chairman Kim's right-hand man who seems to be present whenever the North Korean leader is doing something in public, like watching another rocket take off over the Sea of Japan. He is deeply into everything that is bad about North Korea - nukes, ballistic missiles, terrorism, smuggling, nuke technology-selling etc etc. So, quite a visitor for Trump. We don't yet know if Trump himself will see General Kim who is flying to New York. A meeting at Trump Towers perhaps? But if Trump does meet him, he will probably grasp the veteran spy with both arms and give him a hug, like he did with Gina Haspel the other day when she was sworn in as the new CIA director. That was a full-throated arms-around hug like you might give to your mother. I suspect Kim Jong-chol would appreciate such a hug as much as Ms Haspel must have done! Trump has said he has got together his finest team to see General Kim. Unfortunately, he can't exclude John Bolton. He is after all his national security adviser even though his left foot is still in his mouth after likening North Korea to Libya. General Kim, being a veteran spy chief, will no doubt give Bolton one of those killer smiles but will focus his main attention on Trump, if he is there, and Mike Pompeo. He and Pompeo have already met and as they both have intelligence backgrounds, there will be a shared comradeship of sorts. The big question is: has General Kim come to Washington with a genuine offer on nukes or is it all part of a cunning plan to make sure the summit in Singapore takes place on June 12th but without the agenda being set in concrete. Trump has aready dropped his initial insistence that all North Korea's nukes must be on the table, suggesting it could be a phased denuclearisation. One think-tank expert in Washington has predicted it could take 20 years. Trump, hoping for a mighty legacy coup, won't want to wait that long. Especially since he may only have another 32 months left of his presidency!!

Ten months to Brexit!

Remainers and Leavers are still as divided as ever and it's just ten months to go before Britain exits membership of the European Union. Although a million words have been spoken and millions and millions of words have been written about the negotiations and the likely future of this country, does anyone from the Prime Minister down to lesser mortals like me have any real clue about what life is going to be like? No is the answer. Theresa May is still struggling to get across her idea that we should be half in and half out of the EU customs union, and no government ministers have yet adequately explained how we are going to benefit from a whole range of new trade deals around the world once we are unfettered by EU regulations. The New York Times today claims the UK is more like the US with cuts in social benefits and extreme poverty. The New York Times has traditionally taken a perverse position on the UK, reporting on our difficulties as if we are about to become a Third World country, riven by violent crime, class divisions and misery. Perhaps there are some American reporters who still believe that London is affected by smog which, of couse, hasn't been the case since the 1950s. Actually this country is still one of the best places to live, immigration is a big political issue but on the whole we all get on pretty well, we are a tolerant nation and the best multicultural cities such as London, Manchester and Birmingham are thriving. But Brexit has created such uncertainty that the fear is this great country will somehow be diminished, that we will no longer play a role in world affairs and that the EU members will laugh at us as we struggle to survive in a new economic climate. Despite the fact I voted Remain, and despite the continuing doubts about the current government's ability to produce a decent and manageable deal with the EU bureaucrats, I believe Britain will still be a wonderful place to live and bring up children. The New York Times will be proved wrong. And I haven't mentioned Trump once!

Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un are made for each other

The Korean story is getting crazier by the day. First it's on, the next it's cancelled and then it may be on after all. The June 12th summit of course. I would say the odds are 4 to 3 the Trump/Kim summit WILL take place on June 12th, unless someone idiotic in Washington says something like: "If Kim doesn't give up his nukes on day one we will probably use the Iraq 2003 model". The best thing for everyone now will be total diplomatic silence. If it's on, it's on and nothing more need be said. If there are pre-conditions let them be sorted out quietly without any public statements, and that includes no tweets from Trump. Just for once, forget that social media exists. I doubt this will happen because Trump and John Bolton and others find it impossible to keep their mouths closed. But for the sake of what could still be a Big Event, they need to restrain themselves and leave all the work to the diplomats and spooks who are currently talking to North Korea. Judging by the very limited television reports that came out of the supposed demolition of the North Korean nuclear test site, this is a country which is still locked in a sort of Kafkaesqe universe where officials dressed in Maoist boilersuits have absolutely no clue about how the rest of the world works. Their treatment of the visiting reporters was totally bizarre. They showered the reporters with eight-course banquets but then took fright when the television crews dared to take pictures of a beach or a half-built hotel or....well anything. This is truly old school Communism. They imagine all outsiders are aliens. They simply cannot understand the value of good publicity. They are so scared that a picture of a deserted beach will provoke the wrath of their leader that their only response is to order the cameras to be switched off and any tapes to be destroyed. These are weird people, and their leader is the weirdest of the lot. So I'm thinking Trump and Kim are going to get on like a half-built hotel on fire. Trump after all denounced reports in the New York Times about the North Korea situation and claimed everything was totally false. Made up. Fake news. But the report was based on a briefing by a White House official who had been delegated - by the White House - to speak to the press. This is pure North Korea. Trump is going to feel at home when he meets Kim. They are going to swap stories about how tough it is to be a leader like two paranoid old queens. And they will probably come out with some sort of half-stage, long-term deal that sounds pretty good but actually will let Kim off the hook but still make Trump look resaonably happy. It's all crazy crazy crazy.

Who wins out of the North Korea debacle?

Well nobody actually wins out of the Trump/Kim Jong-un summit that never took place. But who will take some satisfaction out of the cancelled summit? Not Trump because his tactics failed. What about Kim? I think he will feel quietly pleased because he has shown that whatever ultimatums or demands come from Washington he has stood up to the threats. He still has his nuclear weapons, and he probably feels confident that Trump will not dare to resort to military strike action now because he, Kim, has kept the door open to future talks. He has also strengthened his links to Beijing. I think Kim and his aides did what Beijing wanted. President Xi Zinping did not like the way things were going. All that talk of a Nobel peace prize for Trump! Xi put down his marker. He must have told Kim, "This is all going too fast, your nukes are too important for your country's survival, so hang on and wait for another occasion to talk to Trump. Meanwhile follow my orders." So of course Xi Zinping is satisfied. He may have condemned North Korea's nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programme in the past but right now the Chinese leader sees Kim's nukes as a useful leverage against the US. Xi is not interested in a Nobel peace prize but he is interested in Chinese hegemony in the Asia Pacific, and the less influence and power and respect Trump has in the region the better for Beijing. So, yes, Xi is pleased. He will think that Trump has lost and that will make him chuckle. Of course he will pretend still to be Trump's best friend but he will be more concerned about keeping Kim on board. He has certainly achieved that.

Does Trump know what comes next?

Having announced that the summit with Kim Jong-un was cancelled you just hope that Trump had a plan for what comes next. And I don't mean Option B because Option B in Trump's mind is probaby all about taking military action. I mean Stage Two. In other words, taking into account everythng that HAS been achieved and moulding it into something new, not necessarily a summit but definitely hgh-level dialogue to keep the process going. Trump owes the South Korean president that and, indeed the whole Korean Peninsula. What we can't have is all that childish rhetoric again where Trump and "Chairman Kim" mouth off at each other. Having got this far - shared hockey team at the Winter Olympics, Moon and Kim handshake, Trump's acceptance of a summit, Mike Pompeo's two meetings with Kim - all the positive bits can be worked on. Indeed must be worked on. Pompeo is the man for this. He seemed to get on with Kim. The former CIA director should take the lead in bringing Kim back to his senses. Trump's sudden announcement about pulling out of the summit next month was clearly a move by the president to jump first. He knew from the chats between North Korean and US officials that things were going badly. He also had a tip-off from President Moon that Kim was about to pull the plug. So leap in first and make it look very adult and sensible. Kim's great moment, sending a bunch of well-behaved journalists to the mountain nuclear test site to see it blown up - really? - was lost once Trump's letter arrived on Kim's desk. He must have thought: "Why the hell did I bother have all these reporting dogs come to my country?" Still the vey healthy-looking CBS reporter did a fine job pointing out the lovely beaches and the supposed hotel construction going on. So now it's big decision time, Mr President. Send Pompeo back to North Korea and order your cohorts, especially John Bolton, NEVER to mention Libya or Gaddafi again. Let's hope something good can be scraped from the detritus of the abandoned Singapore summit.

What's China up to with North Korea?

Donald Trump said President Xi Zinping was the best poker player in the world. By that he meant you never know what the Chinese leader has in his hands or in his brain or up his sleeve!! Enigmatic and inscrutable are words coined for men like President Xi. So what is he up to right now over the North Korea issue? Clearly he is pulling all the strings attached to Kim Jong-un in the preparations for the summit between him and Trump, or at least the proposed summit. But what don't we know? The answer is we know nothing because everythng is being handled in great secrecy behind the scenes and we can only guess. But I think the Pentagon and the CIA and the massive power of the National Security Agency (NSA) have a pretty good idea what the devious Chinese president is engaged in. The Pentagon, out of the blue, has revoked the invitation it made to the Chinese Navy to join the US Navy and others in an international maritime exercise in the Pacific. China has already taken part twice in these naval exercises. It's all part of relationship-building to improve coordination between the Chinese military and the US military. But suddenly the Pentagon has decided to ban the Chinese navy from taking part. The official reason is that the US is angry over China's continuing militarisation of the sovereignty-disputed Spratly islands in the South China Sea, and in particular the deployment of surface-to-air and surface-to-surface missiles on these atols and the landing, for the first time, of a Chinese bomber on a runway constructed on one of the islands. Well these are good reasons for rescinding the naval exercise invitation. But the timing is significant. We are 20 days away from the planned summit in Singapore between Trump and Kim. This gesture of anger and defiance by the Pentagon is surely also aimed at Beijing for whatever Xi is plotting against the US in connection with the Trump/Kim extravangaza. There is more trouble ahead between now and June 12 and Beijing will be the cause of it. So it would look totally weird for Chinese and American sailors to be carrying out friendly naval duties together in the 2018 Rim of the Pacifc exercise while the Boss in Beijing is carrying on building up bases on these South China Sea islands and setting the agenda for a potentially disastrous summit between Trump and Kim next month. I don't suppose Beijing will worry very much about the cancellation of the naval exercise but Xi and his cohorts might just think: "Hm, what do the Pentagon and the CIA and the NSA know about our plots with Kim Jong-un? Have their spies and intelligence-gathering satellites picked something up which will undermine our plans?" I sincerely hope the Americans have managed to glean some vital intelligence. If they haven't, the inscrutable Xi and his prodigy, Kim Jong-un, will hold all the cards at the Singapore summit.

Trump and Kim Jong-un super summit unravelling

There's always a risk when you break a dramatic news story with so much hype and hyperbole that expectations are raised to a stratospheric level. So, after the Trump announcement that he was to meet with Kim Jong-un to discuss denuclearising the Korean peninsula, everyone's imagination went wild. North Korea was going to be friends with the US and throw away its nuclear weapons!!! Ok, that was never going to happen, not just like that anyway. But there was so much optimism around, partly generated by Trump and boosted by what appeared to be a successful meeting between Kim Jong-un and President Moon of South Korea, that it was difficult not to be caught up in the new mood of hope. But as soon as it was announced on May 10 that the planned summit would take place on June 12, more than a month later, it almost guaranteed that detailed planning would start to go wrong. It might have been better if Trump and Kim had met straightaway just to get acquainted, and then have a second meeting to really get down to business. Now, the closer the summit gets, the more likely it is that disagreements on both sides will force Washington and Pyongyang to delay or call off the whole idea. There is so much at stake that it's almost impossible for either or both parties to reach any kind of meaningful deal before the summit in Singapore. Tempers have already been lost thanks to John Bolton's unfortunate intervention comparing Kim Jong-un to the fate that befell Colonel Gaddafi after he gave up his country's nuclear weapons. Now, as US and North Korean officials negotiate how the summit should go, Kim is clearly getting angry about Trump's ultimatums. There is little real point in having a summit if Trump's first words to Kim are going to be: "Before we start I want a written assurance from you now that you will give up ALL your nuclear weapons and long-range ballistic missiles." After reading all of Trump's tweets and having followed his remarks to reporters, Kim is now under no illusion that that is precisely what Trump intends to do. So he might just think, "What's the point? I didn't get where I am today by throwing away everything I've done to get to this point." The summit could be doomed before it begins. This would be a huge mistake on Washington's part. There is potential for a genuine breakthrough, not elmination of nukes in North Korea, not yet, but still a golden opportunity to begin the process. That's more than we have had for a long time and it would be irresponsible to chuck it in the bin at the first meeting. Cool it, Trump. Be tough, sure. But cool it for the sake of a long-term dramatic change on the Korean peninsula.

Pompeo's great challenge to Tehran

The question is: will Tehran bow to the tough message put out by Mike Pompeo, the big man US secretary of state, and agree to full compliance with his 12 demands which include NO return to nuclear weapon development, no more murderous mischief in the Middle East, no more involvement in Syria and Yemen etc? If they don't comply which would mean basically reversing the whole foreign policy and strategic objectives they have followed since the Iranian revolution, they will face the toughest sanctions "in history" aimed at destroying their economy. I fear Tehran will be so angry that they will never comply but will use every devious attempt to win support from Europe and others to denounce and undermine Washington's efforts to bring Iran to its knees. Why would Tehran comply with such surrender terms? Of course it would be terrific if the Pompeo commandments actually persuaded Tehran to suddenly become a friendly, happy and Western-loving government, no longer interested in building malign influence in the Middle East and content for Israel to exist. But does Pompeo really believe that his ultimatums will achieve the result he and Trump want? Maybe he does. Maybe he is convinced that this new era of threatening Armaegeddon will work, even with a regime such as Iran. But the only way Tehran will change is if there is another revolution in Iran and the younger generation rise up to overthrow the ayatollahs. Pompeo understands this because his speech was directed at the Iranian people, inviting them to bring change to their country. But the Iranian Revolutionary Guard are firmly in control, and it is hard to imagine the people rising up against them. So Pompeo's list of demands are likely to provoke anger and hatred of America. That bodes ill for the future. But having withdrawn the US from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, it was inevitable that Trump would move to the next stage and throw down the gauntlet to Iran, just as he did with North Korea. Pompeo indicated that Trump would be prepared to resort to other methods if Iran rushed to developing nuclear weapons and continued to wage wars in Yemen and Syria. The military option? With Trump, it's all or nothing, and Pompeo is a willing pupil.

Royal wedding sparkle

There are plenty of sceptics in the UK who probably thought the #Royal Wedding of Prince Harry and his Hollywood actress Meghan Markle was all too much. Too much cost, too much hype, too much schmaltz. But oh my goodness, seeing it later in the day after it was all over - a cricket match took preference - it was a wondrous spectacle. All the bad things in the world which have made everyone feel uncertain, anxious and pessimistic about the future could be swept away for a few hours as you watched Harry and Meghan smiling at each other. Not particularly nervous, certainly not overwhelmed, but basically havng fun and bin love. It is quite extraordinary how these great pageantry occasions in Britain always seem to go perfectly to plan. Not a visible mistake in the whole process. Even the somewhat astonished looks on some of the guests' faces as Bishop Michael Curry gave his very Gospel address about love just added to the carnival atmosphere. Justin Welby, the Archbishop of Canterbury, had said that Bishop Curry was a stunning preacher and he was right. No notes. If he had any he never looked down. Just a volume of words, all in the right order. Harry and Meghan, especially Meghan, seemed to ejoy it. They chose him after all. Well I expect Meghan chose him. I watched a version of the wedding as put out by an American broadcasting station, with expert commentary from the most bubbly, excited, over-the-top panel I have ever heard. Americans, even more than Brits, just love a good British royal wedding. And that was fun too, all part of a day when Windsor Castle became the backdrop for the world's focus. America has really had only one "royal" family, the Kennedy clan, but judging by the amount of space devoted to the Harry and Meghan wedding in all the major US newspapers, Americans rely on the British royay family to fill their needs for glamour, romance, fantasy and fairy tales. Harry and Meghan looked great, and now the American people have got something they have never had before, a girl from their own stock embedded in the British royal family. So perhaps after all, despite the divisions caused by the Trump administration, the special relationship between the UK and US will survive.

What now for Sergei Skripal?

As Sergei Skripal is reunited with his daughter Yulia at an MI6 safe house in the country, the great novichok mystery is just that, a total mystery. The police have traced every bit of the nerve agent and feel certain the near-fatal dose was delivered to the Skripals on the front door knob of the former double agent's home in Salisbury. But they are nowhere near finding the culprit or culprits who smeared the nerve agent onto the door and most of what has been made public is based on inteligent conjecture. The Russians had made novichok, Skripal had worked for MI6 against Moscow, ergo, Russia is to blame. It's pretty good circumstantial evidence but it IS circumstantial. Putin has now come out to say it couldn't have possibly been novichok that made Sergei and Yulia ill because if they had been poisoned with novichok, they would have died instantly. Well, he should know, with his KGB background. But the fact that neither Skripal died is perhaps an indication that this particular strain of the nerve agent was not so deadly after all, or the doctors and nurses were so brilliant that they managed to outsmart the novichok. Either way, Putin has expressed relief that his former GRU spy has survived and is being well looked after by his MI6 minders. Time for a big belly laugh!! But what now? What will happen to Sergei Skripal and his daughter? They can't be protected in a country house for ever. And will the police ever be able to pinpoint who was to blame? It seems highly unlikely. If it was Moscow behind the murder plot, even though the novichok failed to kill, it was still such a well-planned operation that no one seems to have a clue how it was carried out, whether it involved one or more individuals, what their nationality was and how they managed to escape being spotted. And where are they now? Perhaps in 20 years time when a police "cold case" team in Wiltshire goes over all the evidence and the CCTV footage again, they might spot something that is being missed by the current investigators. I hold out little hope.

Donald Tusk, you have to be joking!

This sudden Europe versus the United States of America talk is dangerous, stupid and futile. Donald Tusk may be a big name in the European Union - he's President of the European Council and a former Polish prime minister for those who have never heard of him - but to start pontificating, as he has done today, about Europe taking over from the US as the world's security guarantor is both embarrassing and laughable. Of course I realise why the Europeans are angry with Trump. He is trying to demolish the 2015 Iran nuclear deal which three members of the EU were involved in negotiating and signing - UK, Germany and France. Trump has not only opted out of the deal but has warned Europe and everyone else that if they try to continue trading with Iran he will make sure the US banks freeze them and stop all future and current deals. Instead of taking due notice, the EU leaders have rushed into a back room with the Iranian foreign minister to assure him that Europe is on Iran's side and wants to keep the nuclear deal going. The EU sides with Iran against the US!!! Oh my, what the hell is going on? And then Tusk pops up and says Europe is now the all-swinging power that will preserve the world's morals and keep everyone safe. Sorry, just a brief reminder: The US Navy has ten, soon to be 11, aircraft carriers, UK has zero - okay they've built one and are building a second but neither will be any use for years because they don't have aircraft on board - France has one ageing carrier which spends a lot of its time in maintenance and Germany has, well Germany has nothing of any significance at all in the military business and is still failing to spend the two per cent of GDP on defence which all members of Nato are supposed to guarantee. So, Mr Tusk, what mighty EU power do you have in mind exactly? The reality is that, Trump or no Trump, the US remains the only guarantor of all of our freedom and you better remember that when you make such silly pronouncements. We need the US as much if not more than we ever did. So, I'm sorry to say it, but don't piss off Trump so much that he finally wakes up one morning and tweets: "You know what? Nato can go to hell." I think Europe should start thinking seriously about that 2015 Iran nuclear deal. Come on, it was a real stinker, you know that. It was so short-lived, all Iran had to do was do nothing for ten years, benefit from the billions of dollars coming their way from trade deals with the West, and then turn themselves into a major military power, probably with nukes. Europe needs to keep the US on side and stop scurrying to Iran with apologies and pleas and promises of future trade deals. I reckon Iran thinks it's on to a winner. If Tehran can successfully keep Europe and the US divided over the nuclear deal, it puts them in a pretty strong position. So, Donald Tusk, enough of these naive speeches about the great European power and stop collaborating with Iran.

Ban John Bolton from speaking!

No real surprise, it was always obvious to everyone except Donald Trump and John Bolton that Kim Jong-un at some point was going to lose his temper about all the pre-summit talk about North Korea giving up all its nukes. Kim and co have blamed John Bolton, Trump's old old-school national security adviser, for comparing the North Korea nuke situation with Gaddafi's Libya and Saddam Hussein's Iraq. Well it was pretty stupid seeing as how Gaddafi was overthrown when he gave up hs nukes and chemical weapons and was then summarily murdered as he tried to hide in a large pipe and Saddam was found concealed in a hole in the ground after the US-led invasion and was later hanged. Not the best comparison to make when all Kim wants is for him and his regime to survive and rule for ever. Sorry, Mr Bolton, that was not one of your most intelligent moments. However, Kim would have found something else to complain about before he decided to play hard ball and cancel the meeting with South Korea and threaten to call off the summit with Trump in Singapore on June 12. Like, for example, all this stuff about Trump winning the Nobel Peace Prize if North Korea were to denuclearise. Trump should have stamped on that one straightaway. But instead, he nodded and winked as if to say, "Hey you Nobel people, that's a great idea. Obama got his for doing nothing, I'm saving the world." I reckon I would be pretty irritated to say the least if I was Kim sitting in Pyongyang and, by the way, making all the running in the peace stakes and issuing positive vibes every other day to encourage everyone to think this is a great moment in history. Now it's all shattered. Well, not looking so good, and Trump and Bolton will be desperately trying to eat their words to get Kim back on track again. But, please, do not imagine, and everyone has been saying this until they are blue in the face, that Kim is going to walk into the summit wth Trump and just say, "Well, hi, Mr President, I want to get rid of ALL my nukes TODAY." He has spent billions of dollars on buildng a nuclear arsenal only to throw it all away on Day One? That was never going to happen. But Bolton waffles on on TV about how Kim is going to be another Gaddafi or Saddam. Mike Pompeo at State, a pretty shrewd guy, must be seething. It's one thing to start from a strong position and talk tough, but quite another to write the script before the talking has really begun. You have to do these things slowly and carefully and cautiously, not blunder around like a blind buffalo and treat your opponent like a......well like a Little Rocket Man or a "crazy fat kid" (John McCain's choice phrase although that was a long time ago now). Bolton should be banned from the airwaves. Leave the negotiations before the summit, if it happens, to Pompeo who hasn't yet put a foot wrong, and perhaps try out the soon-to-be new CIA director, Gina Haspel. Let her smooth the path. But Bolton, get back in your bunker!!!

Trump's best friend in Beijing

Trump is nothing if not contrary. There he was, not that long ago, ranting on about the unfair trade imbalance with China, vowing to put America first and slapping tarrifs on Chinese imports. Then he gets a phone call from his friend in Beijing, the smiley (sort of) Xi Zinping who asks him if he could save China's biggest telecommunications company, ZTE, which has been running into huge trouble ever since the US penalised them for trading with North Korea and Iran in breach of international sanctions. President Xi apparently warned Trump that this company was going to go out of business, making vulnerable 80,000 jobs. A very clever ploy by Xi. I'm sure the threat to the jobs is partly true but this was clearly Xi testing Trump's vow of friendship. "You help me over this and maybe we can soften the trade imbalance row." Trump's reaction was instant, like always. "Of course, my friend, jobs are so important. I don't want to put all these nice Chinese people out of a job. Let's get it sorted." The US Commerce Department was duly told to get it sorted. No wonder newspaper reports in Washington recorded a lot of scratching of heads. You can imagine the Commerce Secretary saying: "But I thought we were supposed to be blacklisting ZTE?!" But it's all quite clever of businessman Trump. He can see the merits of being nice and friendly with Xi, to make sure the threatened trade war with China doesn't happen. Xi will now be under pressure to do a deal. It's amazing what relationships can do. Trump goes on about how he enjoys having Xi as his friend. Never mind whether Xi actually likes Trump or not, the Chinese president sees the virtue in being friends with this particular American leader. The US does a volte-face over ZTE but all in the name of settling trade relations with Beijing for the long term. But a word of warning. There's still all that trouble over China's military expansion in the South China Sea and the deployment of missiles on the islands that once were known for their coral and now are heaving with concrete. Trump will have to think of a way of sorting that one out to prevent any military confrontation with his friend in Beijing.

John Bolton, the new power behind the throne

HR McMaster became yesterday's man so quickly. When he was appointed national seurity adviser in February 2017, Donald Trump declared he was a man of integrity. All the big noises in Washington welcomed the appointment. McMaster, they said, would bring grown-up intellect and professionalism into the White House. Along with Jim Mattis at the Pentagon and John Kelly as WH chief of staff, suddenly it looked as if Trump had surrounded himself with significantly sensible advisers and organisers. But McMaster lasted only untl April this year. Mattis remains and Kelly remains, the latter by his fingertips. Now, judging by the rumours and insights doing the rounds in Washington, McMaster's successor, John Bolton, is the kingpin in the White House and the one Trump turns to first; Mattis is being pushed into the background and Kelly is... well is just hanging onto his job as best he can. Nothing surprises me about John Bolton. He is an all-or-nothing type of man. Compromise is not part of his lexicon. He says what he thinks and doesn't waver. Trump clearly likes that. I'm sure Trump still likes Mattis, he's a good soldier (well, Marine actually) and is firm and quiet and consistent with his advice. He wanted Trump to stick with the Iran nuclear deal because in his estimation, the 2015 agreement was better than the previous free-for-all, with Iran powering its way to a nuclear weapon. But Mattis was ignored. With Bolton advising the opposite, and Mike Pompeo at State not exactly taking the side of the Europeans, Trump made up his mind and refused to budge from his stated hatred of the Iran deal. Thus, Bolton won, although I don't believe Trump would have made any different decsion even if McMaster was still national security adviser. Nevertheless, Bolton is now The Man. From now on he will dictate the way forward if Trump looks like wavering. Bolton still has his ridiculous mooustache but I doubt anyone in the White House sniggers behind hs back. Bolton is a hawk with eyes in the back of his head. If Mattis tries in the future to persuade Trump to take a more cautious line on a particular foreign policy issue, I'm sure Bolton will quickly move in to put across his more radical view. With Bolton, and to a lesser extent, Mike Pompeo, at his side, Trump is going to get bolder and bolder. So watch out Iran, watch out China, watch out North Korea and watch out any feeble Europeans.

Can we all be optimistic about Kim Jong-un?

Is it now time to stop being cynical about Kim Jong-un? Could he possibly be the real deal? Has he had some early-hours dream in which he found himself at the pinnacle of a mountain looking down on his green and prosperous land, sipping cocktails with Donald Trump? Is Kim Jong-un a born-again philanthropist, a young man who has seen the error of his ways and the ways of his father and grandfather and now wants to be seen as a proper human being determined to bring happiness, love and food to his people? No so long ago I would have laughed at such a thought. I would have said, yeah right, this is all about moving North Korea into the 21st century...I don't think so. Why, because there is always one question that has to be asked. What about the nukes? What will he do with his nuclear warheads and his long-range ballistic missiles? Will he really give them up? I still think the answer is No. But the more he is prepared to give away - quite a lot so far - and the more positive reaction he gets from Washington, the more pleased he will be about the prospects of being treated by the rest of the world as a leader to do business with. And that, in my view, might just make the difference. He will get more and more confident that his regime will survive, that Trump won't ever invade North Korea and that he will live a long and settled life and one of his children will succeed him. BUT he will still say to Trump, "Look, Mr President, you are a reasonable man. If you were in my shoes you would not give away all your military power just to feed your people. You need always to be strong. You and me, we are alike, you are America First, I am North Korea First. So let me be strong, like you are strong, and we can all live happily ever after." This is going to be very very tricky for Trump. That reasonable argument will not go down well. He wants ALL of Kim's nukes to be dismantled and destroyed. Then and only then will he help North Korea to match South Korea in economic prosperity. Kim is going to have a red line and that means a North Korea accepted as a nuclear power. It could still all go wrong. Unless Kim really has had that dream of greatness and feels eternal friendship with Trump is the way forward for his regime. I am far less cynical than I was but remain understandably sceptical.

War with Iran?

Even the Ayatollahs with their blinkered view of the world cannot possiby want a war with the United States. Despite Trump's promise to reinstate American sanctions on Tehran after scrapping US participation in the 2015 nuclear deal, it seems inconceivable that the Iranian regime will leap back into nuclear weapons development. That would just antagonise Trump and drive the Brits and French and Germans back into the American fold. Thus, back to square one. President Hassan Rouhani has told the Iranian nuclear industry to stand ready to accelerate uranium enrichment. But that has to be rhetoric. Does he seriously want to invite Trump to bomb their precious Fordo plant where the enrichment goes on? Of course they don't. So Trump has put Rouhani on the spot. It's like a dare. Imagine Trump as Clint Eastwood facing the punk with the gun in Dirty Harry and inviting him to fire, not knowing whether the mighty Clint has used up all his bullets. Rouhani knows Trump has plenty of bullets but will he fire them? He won't know until the Tehran regime gives the order to build a nuclear weapon as fast as possible. Could Rouhani take that risk? Of course not. Rouhani has been manacled by Trump's decision to leave the nuclear deal. All he can do is plead with the Europeans, China and Russia to stay with the deal. But that's not going to work either because the US will put the squeeze on the lot of them. Meanwhile the Iranian economy is going to go down a long long slope to misery. In my view Iran has lost this one, and the Iranian people will be the ones to suffer which is not what this is all about. I'm sure most Iranians would love to live a decent life and be able to see their children well educated and well fed. They are caught in the middle between their fanatical anti-western, anti-Israel leaders and Revolutionary Guards and the blow-dried Trump. Right now the majority of Iranians probably hate Trump but as the economy deteriorates further they will surely start hating the Ayatollahs. Until that happens, and I predict it will, Iran and the US are going to be bitter enemies. It won't matter what the UK or France or Germany do to try and keep in with Tehran, Iran is going to be squeezed until the pips squeak as a former British Chancellor of the Exchequer once said. There cannot be a war between Iran and the US. Iran would lose and that would finally finish off the Ayatollahs. They know that. So instead there will be a war of sorts between Iran and Israel. But Iran will never win that one either. Trump has certainly transformed the international scene. Whether it will bring more peace or more hatred and violence we will have to see over the next 12 months.

Accused 9/11 mastermind offers dirt on Gina Haspel

This is a crazy world indeed. From inside his cell at Camp 7, postal address Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, Khalid Sheikh Mohammed who once admitted he was the architect of 9/11 and had participated in a whole lot of other terrorist incidents, including the beheading of an American journalist, has offered to provide a few paras of inside information about Gina Haspel, former deputy CIA director and now nominated to be the frst female director of the intelligence agency. He wants to pass these paragraphs to the Senate comittee examining her bona fides to be the next CIA chief. First of all, I have seen Khalid Sheikh Mohammed in action at the military commission tribunal hearings at Guantanamo where he has made several appearances since he was first brought to the detention camp in 2006. A glass partition separated him from me and the other 50 or so people watching the proceedings from the public/media gallery at the back of the court. Mostly he kept quiet, and wasn't required to answer questions apart from procedural matters, such as at what time he was awoken in his cell and asked if he wanted to attend the latest commission hearing. But on one notable occasion Colonel James Pohl, the military judge, received notification that KSM, as he is usually called, wished to say something. Colonel Pohl decided to allow him to speak because he is the sort of judge who wants to be as fair as possible. But he warned KSM that he wasn't to make any sort of political speech and definitely not to make any reference to his time spent with the CIA in secret "black" prisons where he was subjeced to enhanced interrogation methods including waterboarding - 183 times. KSM duly grabbed his moment and ranted for five minutes about the "millions" of people the United States had killed etc etc. Colonel Pohl looked mortified but couldn't stop him. The point of this recollecion is that, if given a chance to pour dirt on the confirmation of Gina Haspel as the next CIA director, he will once again seize his moment. Gina Haspel in October 2002 was in charge of one of the black prisons where some high-value al-Qaeda suspects were held and given the waterboardng treatment. Ms Haspel has refused to discuss whether she did or didn't supervise waterboarding at the black prison in Thailand. But I know that two of the high-value suspects held there, Abu Zoubaydah and Abd Rahim al-Nashiri, were waterboarded BEFORE she took charge of the prison and not afer she arrived. What type of interrogation she allowed after she took charge we don't know because nothing has been documented that can be unclassified. It's secret secret secret. We don't know for exampe whether KSM ever went to the Thailand prison. In his six or so paragraphs he wants passed to the Senate intelligence committee I have no doubt he will say he can reveal exactly what Ms Haspel did, even if he wasn't there. He and Abu Zoubaydah are fellow inmates at Campt 7, the super-secret camp at Guantanamo where 15 high-value detainees are held, although they are rarely given a chance to chat to each other. But should the confirmation hearing for Ms Haspel include any supposed insights from Khalid Skeikh Mohammed, accused of masterminding the killing of nearly 3,000 people? No is my view. No no no.

Iran threatens

May 12 is going to be an important date for the whole world. The knives have now been drawn. Trump versus Iran. Just when we thought we could settle down to the prospect of a summit between Trump and Kim Jong-un sometime later this month or early next month, attention has switched full scale to Iran. May 12 is the day Trump has to recertify the 2015 Iran deal which he hates hates hates, or opt the US out of the agreement and reimpose sanctions against Tehran until the Iranian regime agrees to stop enriching uranium for ever and pulls back all of its special forces and militia currently stirring it up throughout the Middle East. Iran's president Hassan Rouhani prepared the world for trouble in the event of Trump scrapping America's participation in the nuclear deal by warning that it would be an historic mistake. Plenty of implied venom in that statement. If the US goes ahead with ending the 2015 deal, it can't really survive, even though there were multiple signatures on the document - China, Russia, UK, France and Germany. Even if the other signatories maintain their part of the bargain and keep lifting sanctions against Iran, Tehran will consider Trump's exit from the deal as a sign that the agreement is over. Then what? It will be a disaster for the Iranian economy but will Rouhani then say uranium-enrichment is back on course. Of course Rouhani is still saying they don't want to develop nuclear weapons, but no one, I mean no one, believes that. Do the Iranian people believe that? Surely not. And if the scrapping of the nuclear deal becomes a reality on May 12, what will Trump and the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) do if Tehran starts a rapid nuclear bomb fruition programme? Has Trump thought it through? I mean all the way through? Yes, the current deal is stupidly short-lived, but what are the consequences going to be of a direct confrontation between Washington and Tehran? Perhaps Trump thinks that if he starts threatening to bomb Iran's nuclear facilities, like he did with North Korea, it will end up with a terrific summit somewhere and all will be well. Oh dear I don't think that's going to happen. Iran is one of the toughest nuts to crack on the planet. The Ayatollahs know that and might enjoy their battle with Trump. That could lead to more violence in the Middle East, more threats against Israel, and potential military action in the Gulf. Let's hope Trump and Mike Pompeo, his new secretary of state, have pondered all these things.

The name Trump dominates the news agenda

I don't know for sure if this is true but I think I'm on pretty safe ground: the name Trump has appeared more times in the main American newspapers, especially on the front pages, than any other president of the United States during the same period since taking office. Trump would like that I think. Everywhere you read in the New York Times, Wall Street Journal and Washington Post it's Trump Trump Trump. The president would probably see this as a huge success story even though about 75 per cent of the mentions are in a negative or controversial context. The Washington Post can sometimes have half a dozen opionion pieces on the same day all about Trump in some way or other. Mass coverage of the Trump phenomenon can be explained in various ways. Here are a few: 1. He is in such trouble that almost every day brings more damaging stories about what he did, said, should have said or didn't say. 2. The papers are boosting their circulation because their editors recognise that the US and the world are obsessed with Trump. 3. He is such a different style of president, with no political background, that everything he says, does, tweets is instant news. Obama, obviously, got a lot of play when he became president because he was the first black White House encumbent, he was super cool and everyone was intrigued about how he would turn out. But I cannot believe he got as much print space as Trump in his first 16 months. Whatever you think of Trump, he is a news roller-coasting phenomenon. The FBI/Mueller black clouds may be closing in on him but you can be sure he is going to shout and scream and bellow and pontifcate and surprise us every minute of every day until the mighty Mueller investigation is over. Even then, Trump won't accept whatever Mueller comes up with. So the news pages will stay full of Trumpery. That's guaranteed.

Trump in a tizzy over Giuliani

You have to give it to Donald Trump, he's terrific at bluster. He's also pretty good at explaining away statements made by his staff/advisers/etc which he doesn't like and wants to put into a dfferent light. So Rudi Giuliani who is now persona non grata, or as they say in Russian, "nezhelatel'nyy chelovek" (it's important these Mueller days to put everything into a Russian context), is a very inexperienced lawyer and doesn't know what he's talking about. That's effectively what Trump said today. So Giuliani told Fox News Trump had reimbursed Michael Cohen, his personal lawyer, the $130,000 he (Cohen) had paid Stormy Daniels to keep her mouth shut about some alleged sexual moment in 2006. So when asked about this Trump does what Trump does brillantly. He doesn't deny the truth of Giuliani's remarks, he just belittles the former mayor of New York by saying he had only recently joined the Trump camp and didn't know the facts. Ha!! That's done for you Giuliani. What he didn't say was, "I never paid this woman and I never paid Michael Cohen back for paying this woman, I know nothing about it." Presumably Giuliani got his facts from somewhere. How about Trump himself? The conversation might have gone something like this: "Hey Mr President I've been asked to go on Fox News and talk to our friend Sean Hannity." "Good," says Trump. "Just get this ***** woman out of my hair. Sean will know what questions to ask." Giuliani: "So what's new to say?" Trump: "She got her money to make her stop telling lies about me, and, by the way, I paid him back." Giuliani: "You paid Michael Cohen back?" "Yeah, a few grand here and a few grand there till it was covered." "So that's good, right?" "Yeah, all good. Cohen got his cash." "So if Hannity asks I could say Cohen got his money back?" "Look, Rudi, I'm busy, I got some tweeting to do, just don't say anything to keep that *****woman's name in the limelight." "Fine, fine, I'll get it sorted. I know what to do. I've been around, Mr President." Trump looks perplexed but bored and starts to tweet. He thinks his new lawyer friend will handle Hannity without any problem. Big mistake, Mr President.

Trump has been caught out

Lying is a dangerous game especially if you are the president of the United States. Lying nearly got Bill Clinton and it definitely got Richard Nixon. The trouble is, if Trump lied about the money paid to the Stormy porn star, what else has he lied about? That's what a lot of people, including Robert Mueller of course, will be thinking. The whole payment to Stormy Daniels saga is gutter stuff really. Trump wasn't president when it all allegedly happened but the fact is Trump lied when he told reporters on his Air Force One plane that he hadn't known about the $130,000 paid by Michael Cohen, his personal lawyer, to the porn queen to keep her quiet. Yet, thanks to dear old Rudi Giuliani who never could keep his mouth shut, we now know that not only did Trump know about the payment to Stormy Daniels but he paid his lawyer back. But, so sweet, he pleaded poverty and paid it off in installments. I thought he was a billionaire. Oops, another omission of the truth perhaps. So now, instead of saying, "look fellas, you know how it is, I didn't really lie but I was just trying to cushion the blow for Melania's sake", he ignores the lying bit abd just says, as if that's ok then, none of the money came from campaign funds. You better be right on that one, Donald Trump, but if this turns out to be untrue you are digging a big hole for yourself. Either way, the Stormy Daniels story is getting bigger and bigger. I cannot believe that Giuliani got Trump's permission to make this revelation on Fox. He says he dscussed it wtih Trump and Trump was happy. Really?!! But the revelation about the installment payments to Michael Cohen meant the president lied to reporters. Is that a federal offence or just stupid? What it did do was give ammunition to his enemies in the papers and probably brought a smile to Mueller's normally stoney face. Mueller is closing in on the president. As for Stormy Daniels, she should have been a footnote in history. Instead, she has become a leading actor in the potential downfall of Donald Trump.

The Mossad coup

Everyone in Europe has been dismissing Bibi Netanyahu's extravagant "publicity stunt" when he revealed that Israel had aquired a mass of documents that proved Iran was developing nuclear weapons up until 2003. We all knew that, the sceptics have been saying, there's nothing new, it's all part of Israel's pressure campaign to persuade Trump to scrap America's participation in the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. His decision is due in less than two weeks. So the grand Netanyahu "I can reveal all" was just a typical Bibi moment to put Iran on the spot just as Trump is trying to get his thoughts together for his Big Decision. But hang about!! There is a lot more to this than a publicity stunt. Israel's secret intelligence service, Mossad, somehow broke into a storage warehouse in Tehran and stole thousands of documents which specifically outlined the nuclear weapons work which Iran had been carrying out, before they called a halt in 2003. So, even though successive Iranian regimes and also the spiritual leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, totally denied they were even remotely interested in developing nuclear weapons and that their nuclear programme was only about having efficient nuclear power for their factories and industry, the Mossad documents - assuming they are genuine - prove Tehran was lying and has always been lying. Now that, it seems to me, IS new. European governments might all say, "Oh well we knew all along that Iran was engaged in a clandestine nuclear weapons programme, that's why we negotiated this deal with Tehran". But the rest of us, not in the intelligence community, did NOT know for sure that Iran was lying even though we, too, were pretty sure they were. Mossad, by its extraordinarily daring secret operation, has now put on the table the written proof. If Trump doesn't make use of this stuff when he talks to the other signatories to the 2015 deal - UK, France, Germany, Russia and China - and then pile on the pressure on Tehran, I shall be amazed. The trouble is Netanyahu is such a publicist and one-track leader that only people like Trump really take him seriously. Oh and also Mike Pompeo, the new US secretary of state who has always said that Iran is a lying and cheating regime. But the leaders in Europe need to take this Mossad coup with the degree of seriousness it deserves. For once, this is secret intelligence right out in the open. They cannot ignore it. Whatever Netanyahu's intentions which of course are obvious, the Mossad docs could change the whole balance of the argument about whether to stay loyal to the 2015 nuclear deal or start ramping it up to a more meaningful agreement that, for example, bans uranium-enrichment by the Iranians for ever!

Lethal questionnaire for Trump

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