Time for joyous but restrained celebrations

As another pretty awful year comes to an end a lot of people will be giving the impression that the worst is over and that it's time to celebrate like the good old days. Here in the UK there will be pictures in all the newspapers tomorrow of wild carousing in the pubs and streets despite the attempts by Boris Johnson and others to caution people to celebrate the New Year with caution and common sense. I hope they do but I can't see it happening, not in England anyway where all pubs and night clubs and wine bars will be open for carousing business. There will, I am sure, be a large degree of madness and alcoholic excesses. If it's followed by a massive spread of the Omicron variant both the New Year drinking victims and Boris Johnson will live to regret the decision not to impose any new restrictions. If Omicron doesn't venture hungrily into every bar and night club then it will be the first sign that perhaps this virus has exhausted itself. I pray both for those planning a celebratory night out tonight and for all of us that this will be the case and that we can look forward to 2022 as the year when this pandemic leaves these shores.

Billionaires and their superyachts and the rest of us

Twas always thus I suppose, the filthy rich enjoying a totally different sort of world and the rest of the planet's human beings surviving life as best they can. During the two years of the covid pandemic, however, this incredible difference in lifestyles seems to have become even more apparent, grossly apparent I would say. There's a story in the Daily Mail about a congregation (if that's the right word) of billionaire superyachts currently moored in St Barts, the French-speaking Caribbean island. All the billionaires worth their salt are there. Perhaps they only feel comfortable in other billionaires' company. Some of the yachts are so huge they can't come anywhere near the harbour moorings but have to settle in the waters well beyond the white sands. I guess it's possible the owners never actually leave their superyacht homes, but just recline in the sunshine and have lobster fed to them without having to step foot on the island. This is not remotely about envy, it's just an expression of amazement that in this super-troubled world with the pandemic still raging, global warming now here to stay, and poverty and malnutrition reaching desperate levels in countries such as Yemen and Afghanistan, there are super rich people with ther superyachts having a super time without having to worry about any of this. Great for the St Barts economy no doubt but that's the only positive thing I can think of.

The phoney UK leadership contest

My prediction for 2022: Boris Johnson will still be prime minister by the time the year comes to an end in 12 months and two days. All this nonsense about his leading rivals for Number 10 Downing Street lining up and making moves is just that: nonsense. The two ahead in this phoney game are Liz Truss, the Foreign Secretary, and Rishi Sunak, the Chancellor of the Exchequer. Liz Truss is said to be leading the field because of some obscure insider Conservative survey which showed more Tory MPs like Liz than they do Dishy Rishi. But this is all Whitehall bubble drivel to stir up poor old Boris and make him feel he is about to be ousted. If it was August it would be dismissed as a silly season story, but it's appearing most days in bold headlines and even the US press has cottoned on to the story and has joined the rumour foray. I suspect Truss is delighted and Sunak is embarrassed. I don't know Truss but have followed her career and she IS Foreign Secretary so presumably Boris thinks she has something going for her. But the other day she gave a speech about the UK building a "network of liberty" around the world. Did she write that or did some flunkey with nothing else to do come up with that dreadful phrase? It's the sort of phrase which means pretty much nothing. UK diplomats are supposed to spread abroad the values of freedom and democracy as part of their job. So what's with the Truss liberty doctrine? It's a phrase which people with ambitions to be leader of his or her party and the country produce out of a hat to sound grand. It fell flat. Just on appearances alone and ministerial achievement I would have thought Rishi Sunak would make a better prime minister. But, sorry, Rishi and Liz, Boris ain't going nowhere and if you are not careful you'll be going nowhere as well.

England facing an invasion of New Year visitors from Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland

Such is the disharmony over Covid restrictions between England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, it's highly likely there is going to be a rush of night clubbers and drinkers to English bars and restaurants from the other three components of the United Kingdom on New Year's Eve. With heavy restrictions announced for every state bar England for the New Year period, England suddenly looks the place to be. Boris Johnson is the only leader in the UK to look at the same infections data and make the decision to go ahead with New Year's Eve celebrations as if there was nothing to worry about. The other three including the lugubrious Mark Drakeford, First Minister of Wales, have all taken the over-cautioous otion and gone for restrictions on New Year's Eve carousing. Boris, already castigated by about 100 of his own Tory MPs for previous Covid restrictions, decided to go the safe political path by imposing no new restrictions but getting one of his ministers to put out the message that New Year's Eve revellers should celebrate cautiously. It's a bit like the adverts for gambling that are doing the rounds which always end with the delightful entreaty to "gamble responsibly". So revellers in England please drink/dance/cavort kiss/cuddle/fall over with as much responsibility as you can muster. The Scots and Welsh will be heading across their borders to enjoy the delights of English night clubs and bars and no doubt the Irish will be on their way too. This might just be one in the eye for Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland's First Minister, and her plans to go for a vote once again on Scottish independence. Scottish voters might just say: "Sorry, Nicola, you closed our night clubs, we want to stick with the English thank you."

For Putin, it's decision time

Vladimir Putin who seems to be in his element these days, throwing the gauntlet down to the US, playing the energy game with Germany and the rest of Europe and plotting to emasculate the Nato alliance. I think he's enjoying himself. In his latest foray against the western world he has hinted that if Nato fails or refuses to agree to the demands he has made about troops and armour being pulled back from Russia's borders in eastern Europe he will consult his generals and come up with some military responses, presumbaly in addition to invading Ukraine. As a former lieutenant-colonel in the KGB Putin knows all about threats and lies and deception and guile. All these attributes come naturally to him and he is using all of them to scare the US and the rest of Nato. Over the weekend the Russian news agency Interfax put out a report saying that 10,000 Russian troops had been withdrawn from the Ukraine border and it was picked up by Reuters. But we've seen this sort of ploy in the past. Far from it being the first sign of Putin backing down and reducing the size of the putative invasion force it was actually nothing of the sort. It was far more likely that one of his combat units was just being rotated or, even more likely, it wasn't true at all and was just a story put out by the Kremlin to cause confusion. Putin is not in a mood to back down. He wants Nato to back down. I think we will see a lot of this sort of game-playing over the next few weeks and the West better watch out. For Putin it's decision time. He wants Ukraine under his wing one way or the other and we probably have less than a month before he acts. Biden and co will have to keep their eye on the ball like never before.

Taliban latest blow to women

The Taliban are marching backwards, as we all thought they would. Now women have been told they can't go anywhere further than 45 miles on their own. Anything beyond that they have to be accompanied by a male member of their family and of course be all hajibbed up. If I was an Afghan woman I would be screaming by now. The Taliban spokesman (joke) months ago said all would be different under the new 2021 regime, compared to that ghastly one in the 1990s when women were totally non-human beings. He said they would have rights and be treated with respect. Well that was all wallpaper to try and pretend that the Taliban would be freedom-loving males hoping that the international community would rush to their financial aid. But we all knew they were lying. And heyho here we are back to the old Taliban mysogenist ways. It's a dilemma for the international community. Afghanistan is in desperate need of help but unfreezing all their assets abroad and donating billions would be seen as rewarding the Taliban and while they are so anti-women and anti anything that smells of human rights and democracy, they don't deserve help of any kind. Some way must be found to help the Afghan people whose sense of hospitality and warmth to strangers is second to none in the world and still punish the Taliban regime. Meanwhile all those Afghan women who learned for the first time the joys of being as free as men in their communities are now being pushed further and further back into the shadows.

Trump and Biden are new mates

I loved the reaction by Donald Trump when he heard Joe Biden had praised his administration for what it did to create, develop and deliver vaccines to fight Covid-19. No one has thanked Trump for anything and for his successor to express his admiration for the Trump years appeared to gobsmack him. He even said it would be difficult for him to criticise Biden in future. So, a very smart move by Biden, although by the way it seems to me perfectly right and proper to acknowledge the work done by the Trump administration to find and distribute vaccines, even though the former president himself was initially very sceptical about the whole pandemic thing. All that nonsense, too, about swallowing disinfectant to get rid of the virus. Oh my God. That was outrageously irresponsible. But the fact is the Trump lot broke incredible ground and provided for the American people a whole series of vaccines which have saved hundreds of thousands of lives. Trump was amazed and astonished and delighted to hear Biden giving him praise. It was a special moment in his interview on Fox. So Trump and Biden are now mates, well sort of mates. So it will make the 2024 election a whole lot of fun if and when Biden and Trump go neck-and-neck for the presidency in 2024. Trump won't be able to resist it and Biden has declared that he will go for a second term provided his health holds up. It will be the Trump/Biden show all over again.

Who is the most irresponsible politician in the US right now?

Someone who once stood as vice presidential candidate for the United States and therefore should have learnt that wild words are not necessarily the best way to perform your duties as a former public servant has come out and as good as stated that Americans should not even consider getting vaccinated against Covid-19. This former high-up politician is none other than Sarah Palin, ex-governor of Alaska. She has actually said that she would get vaccinated against this dangerous, fast-moving virus "over my dead body". Daily infections of the virus, mostly the Omicron variant, have shot up to more than 100,000 a day in the US. Yet still she wants everyone to know that she is against any form of vaccination. The extraordinary thing is that she contracted coronavirus in March and yet she still thinks American citizens should do their duty and not be contaminated by the vaccine. Not the virus, the vaccine. Words fail me. How irresponsible is that? The tragedy is that many people doubtful about the effectiveness of the vaccine will hear her words and finally make up their minds not to get jabbed. President Joe Biden has a tough challenge to persuade Americans to come forward and be jabbed and boosted if people like Ms Palin declare their opposition to the vaccine. Omicron is already making its way across America, like it is across Europe. But Ms Palin presumably doesn't believe that the vaccines work. Someone should tell her that the majority of those in the UK, and probably in the US, who are even now being hospitalised with Covid are the very ones who have failed or refused to get jabbed. Even for Ms Palin that fact should tell her something. Poor Senator John McCain must be turning over in his grave. To think that he chose her as his Republican running-mate in the presidential race in 2008.

US falls behind in the hypersonic race

In a dash to catch up with China and Russia, the Pentagon’s hypersonic missile programme is being bedevilled by false starts and failed tests. ith America’s potential adversaries moving at a rapid pace to develop and deploy weapons capable of reaching targets at more than five times the speed of sound, the US has now suffered three setbacks in a row. The test of one of the most advanced systems, the US Air Force’s air-launched rapid response weapon (ARRW), had to be aborted after a technical fault prevented the prototype missile from being launched from a B-52H Stratofortress bomber. There had been two previous failed tests in July and April. In the inaugural flight of the ARRW on April 5 over a range off the coast of southern California, the missile also failed to leave the aircraft. In the July test, the prototype was successfully launched from a B-52H but the rocket engine failed to ignite properly. The air force says valuable lessons were learnt from all three tests but the failures are being seen as a serious disappointment at a time when the Pentagon is anxious to demonstrate to China and Russia and other potential adversaries such as North Korea that America’s hypersonic weapons programme is on track and approaching operational status. The latest failure of the ARRW system followed public criticism of the Pentagon’s hypersonic achievements by Frank Kendall, secretary of the air force. The service’s most senior civilian official said he was dissatisfied with the pace of the programme. The sense of urgency about developing weapons capable of hitting targets in minutes has been heightened by the apparent success by both China and Russia in testing hypersonic missiles that can carry both nuclear and conventional warheads. President Putin declared last month that Russia’s Zircon hypersonic cruise missile, to be launched from a submarine, would be ready for delivery to the navy next year, following a claimed successful test launch in October. There has been speculation in the Russian media that the first Zircon might even be introduced into service this week. Russia has also developed a hypersonic glide vehicle called Avangard which Moscow claims can accelerate to Mach 27 – more than 20,000mph. Glide vehicles are launched from a ballistic missile on the edge of space and then manoeuvre through the earth’s atmosphere. China shocked the Pentagon in August when it carried out a test of a rocket-launched glide vehicle that circled the globe in low orbit before descending at hypersonic speed , missing a land-based target by about 20 miles. Had the vehicle been carrying a nuclear warhead, a “miss” on that limited scale would be irrelevant. The Pentagon has multiple hypersonic programmes underway, costing about $15 billion between 2015 and 2024. More than 50 per cent of the investment is being spent on boost-glide technology. The US is only developing non-nuclear systems.

The second ruined Christmas coming up

No matter what government leaders decide in the next few days, Christmas for the second year running looks like being ruined wherever you are living in the world. The Omicron variant of Covid-19 is so rapidly transmissable that even if you take every precaution it seems it can still get you. Lockdowns are already occurring in Europe and the UK won't be far behind. Whether it's before or just after Christmas seems a moot point. But the big family plans for the Big Day on December 25th are falling apart. Half measures are not going to work. Somehow the momentum of Omicron has to be reduced or blocked. Whoever thought this time last year that 2021 was going to be as bad as 2020 and probably that 2022 will be as bad as 2021? It's the grimest of times for the whole world. I just hope that there are no political leaders even now plotting to do something outrageously aggressive while the rest of us are locked away in Covid misery. Please take note President Putin and President Xi Zinping and anyone else with expansionist ambitions!

Boris versus the scientists

It's deja vu all over again. A year ago Boris was fighting the scientists and medical experts to try and prevent a lockdown and then was forced to give way. Now he is determined to save everyone's Christmas but all his advisers, including it seems his health secretary Sajid David are warning that unless further tight restrictions are ordered before December 25 there is going to be a pandemic disaster. Boris's political instincts are telling him to hold on until after Christmas but the signs are ominous that he will once again have to give in and announce some sort of lockdown. Wales has already ordered all restaurants to close. Boris is under pressure to do likewise and order restrictions on numbers for Christmas. But he's going to hold fast until the last possible moment, maybe wait until the first week in January but by then there could be such a huge number of Omicron-infected people that it will be too late. Boris will be blamed and it could be fatal for his political career. You have to feel sorry for the poor man, he has had a terrible last few weeks and, as ever with the Conservative party, his fellow Tories forget all about loyalty and start plotting his demise. If he gets the Omicron decision wrong that could be the final straw for the Boris premiership. Happy Christmas, Boris.

MREs stands for Microbes-Ready-To-Eat.

For nearly four decades the US military on overseas combat missions in far-flung locations have survived on Meals-Ready-to-Eat (MREs) ration packs. Soldiers and Marines in the field tend to describe MREs as Meals Rarely Edible and Meals Rejected by Everyone. Now the Pentagon’s research and development agency, Darpa, has come up with a new concept for future wars , Microbes Ready to Eat – still MREs but without all the packaging and cost of delivery, and created on site. The new-style MREs would be produced by converting oxygen, carbon dioxide, water and electricity into microbes that would then create food molecules, to include proteins, fats, carbohydrates and “dietary fibre”. Although it sounds like a feast of unpalatable ingredients, Darpa is promising that the food molecules will have various different flavours and textures added to make the Microbes Ready to Eat tasty, even delicious. Under a programme codenamed Cornucopia, Darpa has asked companies and research organisations to come up with ideas to enable food production on demand and on site in order to cut costs of food transportation. “Cornucopia seeks to produce from air, water and electricity a range of microbial-origin nutritious foodstuffs that taste good and offer complete nutrition for military applications ranging from troops in austere locations to civilians and troops during humanitarian-assistance and disaster-relief operations,” Molly Jahn, programme manager in Darpa’s defence sciences office, said. She admitted it was a “bold leap” but recent advances including in microbiology and genetic sequencing had made the concept realistic. Eating microbes is nothing new. Darpa said humans eat trillions of microbes every day. For thousands of years mankind has used yeasts, moulds and bacteria to make food products such as bread, yoghurt and cheese. Several companies have recently begun developing food made by microbes to try and reduce reliance on the land for food production and to cut greenhouse gas emissions arising from livestock farming. However, the Pentagon’s requirement for reliable meal supplies for troops overseas is so huge that Darpa wants to devise a transportable food-creation system that will meet the needs of potentially tens of thousands of servicemen and women. Darpa said military deployments around the world involved lengthy, costly and complex logistics, including tons of food to sustain troops over weeks and months. Developing food production on site, Darpa said, would reduce the logistical burden and guarantee meals for troops for an indefinite period of time “provided there is sufficient water and energy”. Current-day MREs which come in thick pouches are made for US military personnel who are serving on operations too far from field kitchens where troops can enjoy a full range of cooked food in air-conditioned tented dining halls. They have also been sent in huge quantities to victims of humanitarian disasters to help sustain them with instant food. During Operation Desert Storm in 1991 when a US-commanded coalition force defeated Saddam Hussein’s troops who had seized control of Kuwait, American soldiers and Marines had to eat cold MREs for up to 60 days. After many complaints, the Pentagon produced special food ration heaters to make sure the troops could eat hot MREs. While the food variations developed significantly over the years, to include pepperoni pizza, boneless pork chops with noodles and burgers, American troops in war zones often tried to swap their MREs for the British equivalents which they decided were more edible.

Pallet-borne cruise missile drops from the back of a Hercules to hit target

The US air force has for the first time carried out a successful hit on a target with a live cruise missile dropped from the back of a Hercules transport aircraft. The cruise missile left the MC-130J special operations Hercules on a pallet attached to a parachute before being released and nose-diving towards a target vessel in the Gulf of Mexico. Officially known as a palletised munition, codenamed Rapid Dragon, the cruise missile “deployed its wings and tail, achieved aerodynamic control, ignited its engine...and proceeded towards its newly assigned target”. “The cruise missile successfully destroyed its target upon impact”, the air force said in a statement. The use of a transport aircraft to act as a second-string bomber has become a key part of the Pentagon’s war-planning. Turning cargo planes into makeshift “aerial bomb trucks” would add innovative firepower at relatively low cost, compared with the deployment of stealth fighter aircraft and strategic bombers. The original concept was dramatically demonstrated in April, 2017, when a 30ft long Massive Ordnance Air Blast Bomb (MOAB), nicknamed “the mother-of-all bombs”, weighing more than ten tons, was pushed out of a C-130 in Afghanistan. It destroyed an Isis complex of tunnels, caves and a camp where militant fighters had gathered. Since then the concept has developed into a more sophisticated programme with the focus on launching cruise missiles from C-130 and C-17 transport aircraft. The Gulf of Mexico test involved a flight crew from the US Air Force Special Operations Command. The missile with a live warhead was not identified. The idea of a roll-on roll-off palletised air-launched weapon system was aimed at increasing significantly the air force’s ability to deploy stand-off missiles during a major-power conflict, although in a war against adversaries such as Russia or China, transport aircraft needed for ferrying troops and supplies would be much in demand. The Rapid Dragon programme began two years ago. Another test with a palletised live cruise missile, this time involving a C-17 Globemaster aircraft, is expected next spring.

Covid stupidity comes in many shapes and forms

I don't want to be overly rude and dismissive but how is it possibe in this era of non-stop Covid pandemic when everyone in the universe is trying to stay safe and alive and preferably in a job that several thousand members of the US military have refused to be vaccinated and are now to be fired or blocked from ever getting promotion? Are their reasons so crucial to their life and beliefs that they are happy to lose their jobs and, more importantly, happy to risk their health and the health of those closest to them? Some have claimed exemption on the grounds of their religious beliefs. But what religion says, Thou shalt not ever be vaccinated even when your life is at risk? But the majority appear to have refused to be vaccinated because they don't think the vaccination is genuine and might harm them. I would have thought that being a soldier or Marine or airman or sailor you do what is best not just for yourself but for your comrades-in-arms and for your unit. And if you still need persuading then your commanding officer should slightly raise his voice and say, Perkins, get vaccinated, that's an order. Roughly two to five per cent of the US military have refused to be jabbed, depending on the service. For example, nearly 4,000 active-duty soldiers have refused and are now facing the sack. More than 100 Marines have already been booted out. The air force has kicked out 27, and in the US navy nearly 6,000 active-duty sailors remain unvaccinated. And this is all while the Omicron variant is tearing through communities like one of those terrifying tornadoes that hit the US last week. It is actually beyond belief!

Putin playing the long game

Will Russia invade Ukraine or is it all a massive bluff to force Joe Biden to make concessions, ie to get Biden to agree to drop the offer of Nato membership to Ukraine which was first mentioned 13 years ago as a future possibility. Since then Ukraine has become more Washington-orientated than Moscow-partnered. Putin cannot endure the thought that Ukraine, once a mighty part of the Soviet empire, could sign up to both Nato and the EU. So the mass deployment of troops and armour and artillery on the border with Ukraine is Putin's way of saying, "if you don't back off from the Ukraine/Nato membership thing, then I'm going to seize the country and prevent Kyiv from ever going western". It's trucky for Biden because he wants to prevent a Russian invasion of Ukraine yet at the same time he doesn't want to give in to Putin's blackmail. The very young-looking prime minister of Estonia, Kaja Kallas (44), has said in an interview that she doesn't think Putin has any right to dictate what Ukraine should or shouldn't do and if the Kyiv government wants to join Nato and the EU then they should be allowed to do so. She's right but unfortunately the wider global political picture is more complex than that. Putin is playing the long game with his threats and blackmail and will probably keep his army ranged against the Ukrainians until he gets something from Biden which will satisfy his demands that Ukraine remains under Moscow's wing. I fear a fudge coming. Biden will offer something to keep Putin happy and then claim US diplomacy saved Ukraine from invasion. But fudges are generally indistinguishable from back-down concessions and it's likely Putin will come out the winner of this diplomatic brinkmanship, without firing a shot.

Senator Joe is worried, so President Joe's big legislation falters

You would have thought that sharing first names and the same political party, Senator Joe Manchin, Democrat of West Virginia, and President Joe Biden would be able to reach an agreement about almost anything. But Senator Joe is out on a limb and professes to be worried about Biden's $2.2 trillion social welfare and climate-change Build Back Better legislative programme because inflation is already rising fast and he thinks it could take off if the Biden project goes through. It's sort of fair enough but the negotiations to get this legislation through Congress has been going on long enough. Everyone in Congress and in the White House is keeping fingers crossed that the massive law will be approved before Christmas. But the omens aren't looking good. It seems incredible to me that such an important piece of legislation that will reshape America's economy and set the example for all other nations in terms of climate-change endeavours is struggling to win the right amount of votes. What exactly does Manchin want to change? Why is he the one to make life so difficult for Biden when he knows that the Republicans are quietly cheering him on. Votes are so tight in Congress it only takes the odd recalcitrant Democrat to screw up the whole process. Poor Biden. He must be desperate to end the year with something solid under his belt. He has got his infrastructure deal through but this is the big one. Build Back Better or Build Back Better But Not Yet.

If Trump wins power in 2024 will it be an end to democracy in the US?

Hillary Clinton has spoken. She believes that if Trump were to go for the presidency again in 2024 and win, it would effectively mean the dowfall and end of democracy as we know it in the United States. I believe she may be right. The reason is that this time round Trump would feel even more justified to do what he wanted. He would argue to himself that the voters really wanted him to win in 2020 and because of the fake and false result, giving the White House to Joe Biden, a 2024 victory for him would be a manifestation of the nation calling upon their rightful leader to take charge and make America Awesme Again or some such label. Trump would feel free to pronounce the most Trumpian policies, build walls all over the place, invite Putin to Washington and send half a dozen aircraft carriers to the Indo-Pacific. It wouldn't mean the US would become a total dictatorship because the good old US Constitution and its founding fathers are there to protect all Americans. But I think I know what Hillary has in mind. There would be dangers because we saw many of them emerge alarmingly when Trump was president the first time round. A second term would give him, he would reckon, carte blanche to convert the nation into a Trump Republic. It's still a long way to go and surely there must be enough sensible, democracy-loving senior Republicans left to make sure that their candidate in 2024 will be a noble, honourable man or woman who, if Biden were to fail, would hold the torch of democracy and be a respected and respectable president.

Boris's latest baby birth hasn't done it this time

It looks like Boris Johnson is finally running out of steam. Political steam. Normally the birth of yet another Boris baby would knock away all the bad stuf from the front pages and give him a breather while photographers gather round to take pictures of a smiling prime minister. But the birth of his seventh child came and went and got buried as more and more bad publicity hit the headlines, perhaps the worst one for Boris being the latest poll figures which show Keir Starmer, Opposition Labour leader, is miles ahead of the PM. The furthest ahead for Labour since 2014. This is seriously bad news for a man who loves being the most popular politician in town. Boris's fall from grace is all about Christmas parties and quizzes and having jolly fun in Christmas 2020 when everyone else in the country was hibernating to keep safe from Covid. Lockdown for Boris was it seems a very different matter than it was for the rest of us. That sticks in everyone's gullet because it looks as if Boris thinks to himself, "I'll do what I want because I'm prime minister but I'm going to make jolly sure the good British people do as they are told and stay at home in misery". I thought it would all blow over but there's a helluva momentum going on and I think Boris for once is in real trouble. Could there even be a putsch against him from within the Conservative Party? No I don't think it will go that far. But unless he gets some miracle good news, like for example the disappearance of the Omicron variant of Covid, 2022 is going to be an increasingly bad year for Boris.

Worst case scenarios are very very seldom accurate

Political leaders have to make judgements very often based on three likely outcomes of a particular crisis, whatever the crisis is, war, pandemics, terrorism etc: mildest, hoped-for outcome, middle-of-the-range maybe-possible outcome, and worst case scenario. It's the last one that seems to be driving the UK government and other governments with the Covid-19 pandemic because none of them want to be caught out. Foreign leaders who initially said the virus was nothing to worry about like Donald Trump and the Brazilian president were proven totally wrong, dangerously so. Boris Johnson spent most of his time in the early days in two minds and tried his best to avoid a lockdown before announcing a lockdown, and then another one. They seemed extreme at the time but possibly necessary, and huge huge sums were forked out to keep the country's economy from collapsing. Now we have omicron and Boris is going mad, desperate not to make the same mistakes he made before. So instead of downplaying the new variant he is up-playing it, and the scientists who seem to love playing the armageddon card have been warning of the direst of consequences with millions of new infections and hospitals being overwhelmed with dying patients and huge numbers of deaths every week. We're back to the bad old days when that fellow from Imperial College predicted there could be hundreds of thousands of deaths. He was wrong. Now that sort of language is being used again. Hopefully the new worst case scenarios will also be wrong. Even wildly wrong. But in the meantime Boris and co are warning every day of more and more restrictions to come. The big question is: who the hell are we supposed to believe? Worst case scenarios are what they say they are on the label. During the Cold War the worst of the worst case scenarios was that the world would be obliterated by nuclear war. It never happened. I am just saying....

Biden and Putin brinkmanship

The United States and Russia are now engaged in a dangerous game of diplomatic brinkmanship over Ukraine with the future of long-term relations between Washington and Moscow at stake. In anticipation of an invasion by Russian troops, the prospect of a medium-scale Nato reinforcement of allies in eastern Europe to deter further military expansionist ambitions is looking unavoidable. President Biden and President Putin may have had their brief moments of laughter and courteous welcome when they spoke on the phone on Tuesday. But the threat of an invasion of Ukraine and the disastrous consequences that could follow a Russian military attack have presented the leader of the western world with his toughest foreign policy challenge. The worst scenario he faces is war between Russia and Nato, something inconceivable in the last three decades of post-Cold War Europe. Biden has to choose the right balance between deterrence and what would be viewed by Putin as provocation. Sending US troops and firepower to Ukraine now to preempt a possible Russian invasion in January or early February would unquestionably be seen as highly provocative by Moscow, and could lead to unpredictable consequences. Biden has already publicly ruled it out. Putin had probably calculated that was not a realistic US option but the American president’s confirmation of his decision will have comforted his Russian counterpart. All the Pentagon has done is ship small arms and ammunition to Ukraine this week, the last part of a $60 million security package which was announced in August. Had Biden retained the preemptive option, he would have faced opposition from Congress and also from the American public for a high-risk venture in a country which is not a member of the Nato alliance. The withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan less than four months ago after a war that failed to produce the desired result remains in everyone’s minds. “Some people might argue for sending forces to Ukraine but the country is very difficult to defend because it’s so large and exposed. In the east facing Russia there are no natural defences and the Russians have the advantage of concentration and they can move their forces more quickly,” said Mark Cancian, a retired colonel in the US Marine Corps who also worked at the Pentagon on defence force structure issues. He is now a senior adviser at the Washington-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies. “This is not the Soviet Union with an army of unskilled soldiers. They now look a lot like us, mostly volunteers, well trained and with excellent equipment. They would be a tough opponent, so if the US sent token forces to Ukraine that would be very risky and could lead to casualties,” he said. The focus is therefore on post-invasion planning. That in itself, it is hoped, will be a deterrent to Putin who in his video call with Biden underlined his longstanding anger about the positioning of Nato troops so close to Russia’s borders in Poland and the Baltics. Currently Nato has four multinational battlegroups, totalling around 4,500 troops, in Poland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. They are there at the request of the host nations and Russian arms control inspectors have the right to monitor training exercises. What if, however, Biden and other Nato leaders decided to punish Putin, post-invasion, by deploying full armoured brigades, each with up to 5,000 troops, to these countries? Would that be a deterrent to any further expansionist ambitions in the Kremlin or increase tensions to a dangerous level? “Similar reinforcements occurred at several points during the Cold War, especially during the crisis over Berlin [1960-1962], and seemed to have a good effect,” said Andrew Krepinevich, a former Pentagon official and retired senior US army officer. The US and Nato deployed several brigades in the city which was inside communist East Germany and surrounded by Warsaw Pact forces. The Soviets could have captured Berlin but not without killing thousands of western troops, and that proved a sufficient deterrent. Jake Sullivan, Biden’s national security adviser, said this week that the US was ready to reinforce Nato allies on the eastern flank, including Romania. After Russia’s annexing of Crimea in 2014, US paratroopers from 173rd Airborne Brigade were flown into Poland and the Baltics, and US Air Force F-16s mounted combat patrols over the region. Since then, while the US and Nato have retained a constant military presence in these countries to reassure them of the alliance’s commitment to their defence, overall the American troop and firepower footprint in Europe had been increasingly winding down. In 1989, there were 5,000 US army tanks in Germany. Seven years ago, there was not a single American tank left in Europe. However, the troop and tank withdrawals were reversed as a result of a reassessment of Russia’s belligerent approach towards the western alliance post-Crimea. From 2017 the US began sending a rotational heavy armoured brigade with M1A1 Abrams tanks to the European theatre. Nato also has a quick-reaction spearhead force of 5,000 troops with supporting special operations, maritime and air units which is supposed to be ready for action within 48 hours’ notice. So there are now more options for Nato military commanders to boost defences in eastern Europe. It will be something Putin will have to take into account as he ponders whether to send 175,000 troops into Ukraine. Cancian who served in the Gulf War in 1991 and in the Iraq war from 2003, is not convinced Putin will give the go ahead. “I find it hard to believe that Putin will invade Ukraine. It’s a big step. He already has the eastern tip of Ukraine and I doubt he would want to pay the economic and diplomatic price for seizing a bit more territory,” he said. However, he warned: “It has been his custom to do these mobilisation exercises. It’s a way of keeping the pot stirring and it’s good to get everyone accustomed to seeing Russia [rehearsing] an invasion and then pulling back until one day he will actually do it.” “This is on a grander scale than previous mobilisations but if I was to bet on it I would say this is just another scare and threat and he will then deescalate,” he said. “The Ukrainian army is also better now. They have been fighting for seven years and they have had training from the US and Nato, and they are getting good equipment, although compared to the Russians they would be outclassed,” he said. However, most of Ukraine’s military infrastructure is in the western part of the country. So even a rapid advance by Russian tank formations would not initially have a significant impact if Putin’s aim is to overwhelm the whole country. It would not be a swift victory. Certainly not a repeat of the unopposed annexing of Crimea in 2014.

Fighter pilots blinded by high-tech green glow helmets

The US Air Force is to make urgent adjustments to the super high-tech helmet worn by pilots flying America’s most advanced stealth fighter after incidents in which a “green glow” obscured their vision during night time missions. The action followed the experience of one pilot of an F-35A Lightning II who was blinded by the green glow in the helmet while he was trying to refuel in midair on January 6 over Alaska. The glow effect in the $400,000 helmet came from the night-vision video feed of the surrounding environment which is built into the headgear instead of on a screen in the cockpit. In the dark, the green glow has been causing disorientation for all pilots of the different versions of the F-35 flown by the US air force, navy and marines. An investigation by the US air force into the January incident reported that the F-35A pilot became confused while he was trying to lock into the KC-135 fuel tanker and later failed to see where his wingman was positioned behind him, according to Aviation Week. “Green glow from the helmet, combined with low tanker lighting and hazy clouds, obscured the view of the other F-35A attempting to refuel and the tanker itself,” the investigation reported. “The illumination from the helmet was so bright that the pilot needed to tilt his head and look below the display to try and see his environment,” the report said. The pilot felt back to normal after about 30 seconds. But he remained on auto-pilot for several minutes as he banked away. The green glow incident was similar to the experience of navy and Marine Corps pilots trying to land on an aircraft carrier at night. The green glow from the helmet’s video stream obscured the ship’s flight deck. Many pilots have reported feelings of “spatial disorientation”. The air force investigators urged adjustments to the helmet including dimming the green lighting. The navy and Marine Corps have gone a step further by ordering an updating of the helmet. A new version is expected in 2023.

Christmas party games with a sad ending

The press here in UK has been full of the story about whether Number 10 Downing Street held a Christmas party last year in contravention of the government's own Covid lockdown rules in force at the time. In other words, no parties, no gatherings of any kind, social distancing etc etc. Whie the rest of the country was playing by the rules - mostly - and staying at home over Christmas without loved ones, officials at Number 10 were making whoopee, drinking mulled wine, eating mince pies, and having a jolly get-together. Scandal, if true. We still don't know for sure whether it actually happened, whether Boris had approved it or whether it's all about nothing much more than a few hasty drinks behind the office cabinets. Boris says he he has been told there was no party and he has stuck to that belief but has asked the cabinet secretary to investigate. But now comes the sad part. Allegra Stratton, then Boris's press spokeswoman and a really nice person, took part in a videoed mock press briefing in which a colleague acting as a journalist asked her a question about the rumours of a Christmas party at Downing Street and she giggled and said she had gone home by then and seemed to treat the question as a laugh. A bit unfortunate but it was only an inside mock-up event which clearly didn't go as planned, professionally, because she smiled a lot and treated the question very lightly.But of couse some nasty person then leaked the video to ITN and it's all over the front pages of every newspaper, and now Allegra Stratton has had to resign. She was in tears when she made a statement. As I said she is a nice lady, an experienced journalist, normally very professional and was terrific as political editor on BBC 2 Newsnight and then national editor with ITN before joining Downing Street. Now her new career is over because of a silly response during what was supposed to be a private event. I feel very sorry for her and hope the person who leaked the video feels guilty as hell for ruining her life.

Putin adds more troops as he waits for Biden's call

On the eve of the phone call between President Biden and President Putin, the Pentagon revealed that the Russian military was continuing to add more and more firepower on the border with Ukraine. The US defence department which has long had contingency plans in the event of a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, is still hoping for diplomacy to work so that the current build-up of tension “doesn’t result in any sort of open or armed conflict”, John Kirby, Pentagon press secretary, said at a briefing. “[But] what we ...see is added capability that President Putin continues to add, added military capability in the western part of his country and around Ukraine,” Kirby said. One key component of the intelligence picture being drawn and redrawn each day at the Pentagon and at US European Command in Stuttgart, Germany, may be coming from an estimated dozen or so American military advisers in Ukraine. They were first sent on a rotational basis during the Obama administration and stayed during the Trump administration. “I don’t have specific numbers of advisers that may or may not be on the ground,” Kirby said. However, he confirmed there had been a longstanding rotational arrangement to make sure Ukraine could “continue to defend itself”. The Pentagon has recently provided Ukraine with Javelin anti-tank missiles and two refitted former US Coast Guard patrol boats to boost the Ukrainian navy, part of a package of military assistance worth more than $2.5 billion since 2014 when Russia annexed Crimea and Russian-backed local proxy forces seized part of eastern Ukraine. The defence department is also considering providing the Ukrainian military with Soviet-made Mi-17 Hip helicopters which previously belonged to the Afghan air force. One version can be used as a gunship. The Afghans had a fleet of Mi-17s some of which were withdrawn by the US during the evacuation from Bagram airbase in Afghanistan. But many of the helicopters were captured by the Taliban.

Putin ponders invasion

Two aspects of the Russian troop build-up along the Ukrainian border have raised specific alarm in Washington and in Nato capitals about President Putin’s suspected plans for an invasion. These are the extensive deployment on the border of Russia’s combat-ready battalion tactical groups - Moscow’s “shock troops”- and the recent arrival of all the back-up needed for a medium-term military intervention, including medical field hospital units, long fuel-supply lines and other logistical support. While the total number of troops varies from 94,000 claimed by the Kyiv government to 70,000 estimated by the Pentagon, the Kremlin has the capacity rapidly to increase that to 175,000, a figure predicted by US intelligence. This assessment is partly based on Russia’s conventional military warfare doctrine which is heavily focused on the deployment and use of battalion tactical groups (BTGs), designed to be ready for intervention in an emergency at 60-minutes’ notice. Each BTG is a self-contained group consisting of 800-900 combat soldiers plus tanks, artillery, anti-tank missiles, reconnaissance, engineers and rear-support platoons, bringing the size of the force to more than 1,500 personnel. Five years ago there were 66 BTGs. Today there are 168, Sergey Shoigu, the Russian defence minister, revealed in August. These shock troops linked up effectively with local paramilitary proxy units in Ukraine during the previous incursion of 2013-2015. There are currently 50 BTGs deployed on the border with Ukraine. Even the best Kremlinologists can only guess what is in Putin’s mind. But it would seem the Russian leader might have three aims, outside of an actual invasion: to rehearse Russia’s ability and capacity to cross the border and hold large swathes of territory in Ukraine at short notice; to warn off Nato from ever allowing Ukraine to become a member of the western alliance; and to test President Biden’s nerve. If Putin is prepared to take the gamble of ordering an invasion force into Ukraine, timing will be crucial. In January the flat terrain in south-eastern Ukraine will be frozen, ideal for tank movements. He will also need more troops, potentially doubling the number of BTGs to 100. So other BTGs currently on alert in army brigade garrisons would have to be transported by road and rail to join the combat groups already assembled. Biden and Nato would then know from US satellite pictures that Putin had finally made up his mind to invade and face the consequences.

It's party party party...or not

Does anyone have a clue whether it's ok to have an office Christmas party, let alone kiss under the mistletoe? Here in the UK, the signals are downright confusing, with some ministers saying it's fine and dandy to go ahead while others then very helpfully point out that they in their departments are NOT going to be boozing and dancing but may do something on Zoom. Oh for goodness sake. Government ministers are so desperately anxious not to put a foot wrong that I'm amazed they have the courage to speak out on anything. Where are the ministers with actual views which they believe in and stick to? It's all U-turns and evasion and confusion. As for kissing under the mistletoe that was always a dodgy event if it involved strangers. A wonderful surprise or a dreadful slippery experience. With Omicron around let's forget the mistletoe but surely a Christmas party with a little bit of jollity might be all right, especially if everyone promises they have been vaccinated at least once and preferably three times. That's it, I've got it. Office Christmas parties should be renamed Booster parties where eveeryone has to provide confirmation that they have had the booster jab and can then walk into the room full of confidence and bonhomie.

Angela Merkel's long goodbye

Angela Merkel, Chancellor of Germany for 16 years, announced her retirement in 2018. Talk about a long goodbye, she is still around and won't actually leave her offica for the last time until next week. Bless her, I wonder if even then she will remember to pack up her things and leave on time. At least she won't shed tears of bitterness and betrayal like the other Iron Lady did, Maggie Thatcher, after she had been politically stabbed in the back by her so-called cabinet colleagues. Maggie was photographed with eyes filled with tears as she was limousined out of Downing Street on her last day as prime minister - November 28 1990. Merkel on the other hand has been planning her last day as chancellor for so long that it's beginning to feel she will never leave. But her successor has already shown what he is made of and has had ample time to try on Merkel's shoes. By the sound of it dear old Angela is going to have some fun when she leaves next week. She has chosen a strange mix of music which she wants played on her last day. For her military farewell ceremony on Thursday she has chosen three tunes, one of which is a punk rock song called You Forgot the Colour Film. Weird! Anyway, she will go out with a musical bang. And the Olaf Scholz era will begin.

Omicron pi rho sigma tau etc etc

I don't believe, on the basis of the medical evdence so far, that the Omicron variant of Covid-19 is going to be the worst, the scariest, the deadliest, the most fatal of the different versions of the virus we have had to face over the last two years. Everyone is rushing towards close-down (not lockdown) mode as if Omicron is about to cut a swathe through the world's population. If it really does threaten to be the most lethal, which some experts seem to believe, then presumably that august but hopelessly bureaucratic body, the World Health Organisation, would have sounded the alarm. But no, the message appears to be caution, not panic. So why the panic! Why the despairing cry that once again Christmas is going to be ruined. Last Christmas was the worst Christmas in my family ever! It ended up with no family, cancelled plans and a takeaway curry on Christmas Day. There is absolutely no way that is going to be repeated. So please, Omicron, go away or just dissipate into nothing. I'm truly sorry for those who have caught the latest variant but there is no evidence as yet that it has led to serious, let alone fatal illness. Wearing masks in shops and public transport is of course the right policy and should be vigorously enforced. And anyone who has refused to be vaccinated should be persuaded in the strongest possible terms to get jabbed soonest. But otherwise let life go on as "normal" because when Omicron has done its bit, then there's pi, rho, sigma, tau and the rest to follow, potentially. We can't panic every time a new letter of the Greek alphabet is thrown at us!

Is it really going to be Biden versus Trump in 2024?

The thought of a rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump for the US presidency in 2024 is so depressing. One can only despair at the way politics in America have gone in the last five years. Four years of Trump was surely enough for anyone and everyone, and after nearly a year of Biden, there's no question he is a decent man but he sounds increasingly awful. So raspy of voice and slightly feeble in projection. He is not a commanding presence and normally US presidents have to have a commanding presence, preferably from a considerable height to sound and look right. Obama had the look and presence, Clinton had it, the two Bushes got away with it because they were a sort of dynasty and Kennedy, well Kennedy was Hollywood. He had everything going for him. Biden speaks with no conviction half the time even if his policies are relatively sound. As for Trump, well he has the height and the hair and the big shoulders and the floaty hands and the bellowing voice but he was always kinda scary and I really don't think the United States of America should seriously consder having him back in the White House. But the Biden/Trump show seems to be building up and up, with both the current president and the former president looking to 2024 as the next stage in their political careers. Trump definitely wants to stand again and presumably thinks he will win. Biden also definitely wants to stand because he will want to prove to the voters that he is good for an eight-year stint, never mind his advancing years. But can you imagine what his voice will sound like in, say, 2026? But if Biden says he is going to stand for reelection, then other Democratic hopefuls, notably Kamala Harris and Pete Buttigieg, will have to stand back and wait for 2028.