Trump is so far ahead of his rivals they aren't rivals

It's still about a year way from the moment when the Republican party will nominate its candidate to stand in the November 2024 presidential election. The Republican National Convention will meet in Milwaukee, Wisconsin from July 15-18, to choose their nominee to take on Joe Biden. But the polls are unwavering. Donald Trump, despite facing multiple crimimal indictments and the possibiity of a prison sentence, is so far head in the latest polling figures that it seems a total waste of time and money for anyone else to consider carrying on contending for the nomination. The figures published in The New York Times say Trump has 54 per cent of the vote and the second place has only 17 per cent. That's Ron DeSantis, the Florida governor who attracted massive publicity not that long ago as the man most likely to unseat Trump. Judging by his campaign so far he has absolutely no chance of doing that. As for the rest, no candidate has more than three per cent of the vote according to the poll. Chris Christie, the most bumptious and outspoken of the candidates who has been more critical of Trump than any of the others is right at the bottom on just two per cent which should tell him a lot. Criticise Trump and you get shafted. The Times/Sienna poll makes devastating reading for all the also-running. There's a year to go but does anyone honestly believe the poll ratings are going to change sigificantly. Trump is on a roll to the nomination and no one can stop him. Not even the US Justice Department I suspect.

Putin raises hopes of peace? No he doesn't

Putin has mentioned peace before. This time he decided to offer his readiness to talk peace at a summit with African eaders in St Petersburg. But in reality it's the same old, same old. Peace on his terms which means Ukraine agreeing to give up the territory which Russian troops currently occupy. It's the old Catch 22 for Kyiv. It's an impossible solution for Kyiv because President Zelensky has made it cear on numerous occasions that he is not prepared to talk peace untll all Russian troops have left the country. So the word "peace" coming from Putin's lips should not be greeted with any degree of hope. He was just trying to prove to the African leaders that he was not the one dismissing peace as an option. I wonder if the African leaders were impressed. They had appealed to Putin to lift his ban on grain being exported from Ukraine through the Black Sea and that fell on deaf ears. So I doubt they came away from the summit believing Putin had made a step towards ending the war. Sadly, peace is still a long long way away.

UFOs and aliens and reverse engineering and all that fantasy stuff

It didn't take long for a senior US official to knock down the wild claims made this week about how sucessive American administrations have covered up and kept secret the arrival of aliens from outer space and how their spaceships have been reversed engineered. The guy in charge of investigating UFOs at the Pentagon has basically said it's all codswallop. And yet when the former US Air Force officer made the claims during a Congressional hearing, every word he uttered was joyously slapped across the pages of every newspaper on the globe and treated with the respect it didn't deserve. There was one moment during his allegations when retired Major David Grusch,a one-time air force intelligence official, was snapped by photographers with that wild-eyed look one normally associates with someone who has a burning cause in his head which he wants everyone to believe. I mean, come on all you sensible people, if there really had been a conspiracy over the last eight decades about this alien invasion it would literally mean hundreds of thousands of people would have been keeping quiet all this time. Ok, you might argue, ex-Major Grusch has now come forward to speak on behalf of all these good citizens who agreed never to talk about it. But I just don't buy it. It's up with the fairies stuff. It's baloney. It's alien tish-tosh. All of which was emphasised by Sean Kirkpatrick who heads up the wonderfully named All Domain Anomaly Resolution Office (ADARO) at the Pentagon. He said there was no evidence any of the stuff claimed by ex-Major Grusch had anything to do with the truth or reality. A Pentagon spokeswoman said likewise. So, ex-Major Grusch, carry on making your claims based supposedly on inside information but don't expect anyone to believe you.

Ukraine needs a major breakthrough

More than at any time in this war in Ukraine, Kyiv needs a major success on the battlefield, something to rock back the Russians, to make them doubt their ability to defend the territory they have seized. The Ukrainian counter-offensive has yet to achieve that and it may never do so. But with the full weight of Western-supplied tanks and armoured vehicles at their disposal, you would have thought it would be possible to breach the Russian defences and force them back. The US Army Abrams battle tanks won't be delivered until the autumn, so they won't be playing a part in the Ukrainian efforts to dislodge the Russian troops. But there are enough Leopards and Challenger 2s to cause problems for the Russians. The trouble is quite a lot of Leopards have been damaged or destroyed, so the confidence of the Ukrainian military has suffered as a result. Zelensky has praised his troops for their successful counter-offensive but progress is still desperately slow. I'm sure Zelensky wakes up every morning and says to himself: "If only we had the Abrams tanks and F-16s now." When the history is written about Putin's invasion of Ukraine, the length of time it has taken the US to supply F-16s will be one of the most significant footnotes. The F-16s won't win the war but when they do arrive, they will absolutely make a big difference.

Indictment charges pile up against Donald Trump

So it's looking like Trump is going to face a third indictment pretty soon, this time to do with allegations that he tried to overturn the 2020 election result when he lost against Joe Biden. Could this be the one that finally undermines his campaign to stand for the presidency? The way the United States and its constitution work seem to suggest that Trump can just carry on regardless. And that's exactly what he will do, no doubt encouraging his loyal supporters to ignore or denounce the moves by the Justice Department and by the special counsel Jack Smith. In Niger, military chiefs ousted the president in a coup. In the US, there's a kind of coup being mounted to make sure Trump eludes all attempts to prosecute, convict and jail him. He has had one serious setback when the judge whom he appointed, set a date in May for his trial on the hoarding of classified documents at his Florida residence. Not only will the trial coincide with Republican primaries but it means that if Trump is found guilty, a huge decision will have to be made by the presiding judge about the appropriate sentence. Could it be a prison sentence? Well, it could, but will it happen? Trump is never going to give up tryng to win back the White House which means none of his supporters will give up either. It will be Trump and his backers against the rest of the US and aganst the justice system. As I said, it's a kind of coup.

Israel's future facing political and social chaos

For the briefest of moments everyone watching the crisis unfolding in Israel had hoped that Bibi Netanyahu, the increasingly autocratic prime minister, would find a way of preventing the country descending into an abyss. But it was an illusion, no a delusion. He was rushed to hospital to have a pacemaker fitted and came out with renewed energy to push through his extremist government's legislation emasculating the supreme court. The whole of the opposition abstained. Thousands of Israeli air force reservists have resigned. Who knows what the rest of the military will do. Normally they proudly defend their nation. But not the nation run by wild-eyed extremists. Netanyahu, both revered and feared in Israel, had reached a moment in his political life when he had to choose between staying in power, backed by the most right-wing cabinet ever seen in Israel, or serve his nation. He chose the former. Why? Because he is charged with corruption and the only way he can delay legal proceedings is by being prime minister, and the only way he is able to do that is by allying himself to politicians who have no interest in democracy but just want power to carry out legislation that will change the image of the country for ever around the world. Like annexing the West Bank. Joe Biden did his best to persuade Netanyahu to take a different path but this time the greatest of Israel's allies was dismissed and rejected. Netanyahu and his extremist cohorts won. Israel and the Israeli people will for ever rue this day.

US Navy SEALs get their own "dry" mini-sub

Midget submarines with frogmen packed inside or riding externally have been an essential part of military warfare since the Second World War. Japan used five in the attack on Pearl Harbour on December 7, 1941. However, now for the first time the US Navy has deployed a mini-sub for covert missions by Seal commandos which is like a smaller version of a traditional submarine with a pressurised hull. It’s comfy and warm for the two-man crew and eight Seal passengers, without the need for breathing apparatus and wetsuits. The 30-ton dry combat submersible is a dramatic improvement on the long-used US Navy mini-sub which is called a wet submersible because the Seals have to sit externally in breathing gear, exposed to freezing water as the vehicles move ahead. Two of the new advanced mini-submarines built by Lockheed Martin from a British design are now operational. Although their whereabouts is classified, this latest model of a mini-sub for special operations missions would be ideal in the Pacific for challenging China’s attempted maritime dominance of the region in any future conflict. The mini-sub is based on the S351 Nemesis designed by the British company Marlin Submarines (MSubs) in Plymouth. The company has been working with Lockheed Martin since the Pentagon awarded the contract for the new special sub for the US Navy Seals in 2016. “The dry combat submersible has the potential to transform undersea warfare for special operators,” Lockheed Martin said in a statement. The company said the new mini-sub would provide special operators with a safe, clandestine delivery over long distances “in a completely dry environment”. The Seals are most famous for the mission in 2011 when they landed by helicopter at the secret compound near Abbottabad in Pakistan where Osama bin Laden was living, and shot dead the founder of the al-Qaeda international terrorist organisation. However, they are also skilled, after the harshest of training programmes, to carry out underwater sabotage and demolition missions. The pressurised mini-sub will enable Seals to arrive at their target destination “warm, rested, hydrated and ready”. Current min-subs with frogmen on board are launched from special dry deck shelters built into Virginia-class and Ohio-class submarines. However, the new dry combat submersibles are too big. They will have to be launched for secret missions from a surface warship. Or they could be delivered to forward locations by a US Air Force C-17 Globemaster transport aircraft. The leaders of the original midget submarines for military warfare were Japan, Germany and Italy. The Soviet Union also had a midget submarine programme in the 1930s. In September 1943 the Royal Navy launched a dozen midget submarines, or X-craft, to plant depth charges on the hull of the German battleship, Tirpitz, off the north of Norway. Although many of the subs came to grief, two managed to get through the underwater mines and torpedo nets to reach the battleship. Huge explosions caused the Tirpitz to lift 3ft in the air. It was severely damaged. The commanders of the two X-craft were awarded the Victoria Cross.

Ukraine's grain harvest is approaching crisis

It's grain harvesting time in Ukraine but things are looking pretty bleak. First of all a lot of the cornfields have been smashed up by the Ukrainian military for building defensive positions against Russian attacks. About a quarter of the fields are behind Russian-occupied land and then to make matters much much worse, Putin has axed the deal allowing Ukrainian tankers to export grain via the Black Sea to needy parts of the world which means the Kyiv government is having to switch all its export efforts via road routes to ships on the Danube. And lastly, Putin is targeting grain depots in Odesa and destroying thousands of tons of the harvested crops. It could be Ukraine's worst harvest on record. This will cripple Ukraine's economy which is reliant on grain exports. Putin won't reinstate the grain deal agreed with Turkey unless he gets a quid pro quo from the West, ie get them to lift sanctions against Russia. That's not going to happen. So once again Putin has the trump card to ruin Ukraine's economy and the country's future. How is it possible that the world, including China, is allowing this to go on? It's time for Putin to be given an ultimatum. Enough of this pussy-footing around. The man is a monster and he is sitting in his very luxurious residences laughing his head off.

Is the Ukrainian counter-offensive getting stuck?

There is no question that people, not just in Ukraine, had high expectations of the counter-offensive against the Russian defences which has been going on for months. This was to be the big breakthrough, the Russians would cower under the artillery barrages and troop advances and eventually retreat. Large slices of Russian-occupied territory in the east and south would be snatched back. Humiliation for Putin. Some expected this to happen quite quickly. More realistic individuals such as General Mark Milley, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, warned that it would take time, a long time. But the fact is, Ukraine's biggest and most-planned-for counter-offensive needed to have ap retty rapid impact if it was going to get anywhere in bringing this war to an end. That hasn't happened. The daily bulletins talk of little bits of territory liberated here and little bits there but no resounding success stories. Indeed, much of the talk has been about the incredible layers of Russian mines scattered everywhere and the huge challenge of trying to break through to reach the trenches where the Russians are concealed. The American cluster bombs that were supplied very quickly after the decision was made by Joe Biden, will eventually make a difference. But every day is a hard slog. The reason is that Ukraine is fighting a military heavyweight which has spent months preparing for Ukraine's counter-offensive. So now we have stalemate. If that continues for another three or four months, I think the judgment in Kyiv and in Washington will be that the counter-offensive has failed. Then what? There will be little incentive on either side of the war to forge a settlement. Only success on the battlefield forces the other side to seek a deal. So the war will just go on and on.

Kissinger, the one American name Beijing reveres

I had a good contact in the US some time ago whose father parachuted out of an airplane at the age of 94. Pretty staggering. But now we have Henry Kissinger at the age of 100 turning up in Beijing and meeting with all the top Chinese hierarchy, including President Xi Zinping. Now that really is staggering. What an extraordinary man he is. The last time I saw him he looked a bit crumpled and needed a wheelchair to get around. But his brain is still as sharp as a parrot's beak and he has more knowledge about China and world affairs than anyone else on the planet. As a centenarian he is still playing a unique role in the world. The US State Department rather brusquely dismissed the notion that Kissinger might have played a part in warming relations between Beijing and Washington. A spokesman said Kissinger was not an envoy of Washington but just a private citizen. That's like saying Albert Einstein was pretty good at maths but was not in a position to contribute towards economic matters. Of course Kissinger's visit to Beijing could have improved the sticky relations between Beijing and Washington. I have no doubt he will be debriefed at some point by the Biden administration, and President Xi will expect this to happen, so the Kissinger effect will be important. The wisdom of this man is respected not just in Beijing but around the world. I'm sure his visit to China will have lasting benefits.

Trump warning of violence - again

Donald Trump is facing potential charges over the January 6, 2021 attack on the Capitol. Now he is warning of more violence from his supporters if he is convicted and sent to prison. Lawyers might no doubt argue the toss over whether a warning of future violence is just a warning or more like an encouragement to cause violence. As with the January 6 attack where it has been alleged that Trump's speech before the onslaught incited his followers to do what they did, the former president has insisted that he was doing the opposite, that he called on his supporters to advance on the Capitol but peacefully. If he is charged with incitement this will be at the heart of the defence case. I notice that Kevin McCarthy, Speaker of the House, who was quite critical of Trump's involvement after the attack is now saying the former president couldn't possibly be convicted of an incitement charge because he had called for a peaceful protest. He may turn out to be right. But now Trump is warning of trouble ahead if he is sent to prison. I fear he is also right. If Trump is handcuffed and marched off to a prison cell, I can't imagine his millions of loyal followers will take it kindly and might well burst onto the streets. But what Trump should be doing right now is to try and promote his innocence, not give sinister warnings in a TV interview that his imprisonment will lead to some sort of violent uprising. But that's not the way Trump does things.

China sticks with its coal-fired power stations

Despite all the evidence that coal-fired power stations are doing more damage to the climate than anything else, China is, literally, steaming ahead. John Kerry, climate-change envoy for the Biden administration and a man of stature in all ways, just couldn't persuade Beijing to change or reverse course. He didn't actually see Xi Zinping during his visit to China but he got the message loud and clear from the Chinese leader. "We Chinese will do things our way and in our time, thank you." Kerry, being a proper diplomat, didn't try to boss the Chinese officials he did see. That would have been counter-productive. But he did try to suggest that it might be a good idea to start getting rid of coal-fired power stations because etc etc. China is responsible for 30 per cent of the world's carbon emissions. What more needs to be said? But China says no, there is no hurry. Well we all know that the planet is being seriously damaged by what we humans have been doing since the industrial revolution and if we don't "hurry" and get on with doing somedthing about it we are all doomed. The intense heat around the world right now, including in China, should be ringing massive alarm bells, especially in Beijing. It has to be said, however, that China is developing solar power energy on a scale greater than all other countries combined. So that's a sort of compensation. But coal is still Enemy Number 1. As Kerry said, at least China is prepared to talk about the climate but no one can tell Beijing and its ruling communist party what to do. By the time China, and other countries, phase out coal altogether, it will probably be too late for the planet's survival.

Trump versus the US Justice Department

Donald Trump is expecting to be arrested any day and charged in connection with the attack on the Capitol on January 6 2021. Of all the indictments and potential indictments against the former president, this is the one that everyone has been waiting for. It will directly put Trump and his fanatical supporters and his whole presidency on trial. It's a staggering moment in US history. Trump has accused the US Justice Department of political assassination and has directed most of his venom at Jack Smith, the special counsel given the job of investigating all the allegations against the former holder of the highest office in the land. Innocent until proven guilty but these immense charges are being brought against a man who wants once again to be the holder of the highest office in the land. And because it's Trump, he could actually achieve this honour, innocent or guilty. It's a tricky one for the Republicans. Above anything else they want a Republican back in the White House and, amazingly, because Trump is so far ahead of his rivals, they seem happy to back him for the presidential nomination. Never mind the huge implications and the potential damage that might cause for the United States. The Republicans want their man in the White House come what may and if it's Trump, so be it. Meanwhile Trump will tell all his loyal supporters that he is the victim of a politicised witchhunt. However many indictments the Justice Department brings against Trump, the mighty MAGA (Make America Great Again) bandwagon keeps rolling on.

Dangerous tit-for-tat in war in Ukraine

Ukraine's special security unit launches a naval drone packed with explosives against the Kerch bridge linking the mainland to Crimea and there is instant revenge from Moscow. It's a tit-for-tat war. The damage to the bridge is not irrepairable but it will take a month or two to get the road network running fully again. Ukraine must have known that Putin would get his own back. That's the way he works. So a shower of missiles were launched from warships in the Black Sea against Ukrainian cities and, just like that, Moscow scrapped the deal allowing Ukrainian commercial ships to pass safely through the Black Sea filled with grain bound for Africa and elsehere. Grain exports are of course vital to Ukraine's economic well-being. The Kerch bridge, Kyiv says, is a legitimate target because it's a supply line for the tens of thousands of Russian troops based in Crimea. It is difficult to argue against that logic, so as Ukraine's naval drones acquire longer range and greater explosive payloads, I have no doubt there will be more attacks on the bridge in the future. Ukraine wants Crimea back and hitting the bridge is no clearer way of getting the message across to Moscow that Kyiv's ultimate aim is to liberate the peninsula and drive the Russian troops out. But the ban on grain exports is a huge card in Putin's hands. But he has a problem. China buys Ukraine's grain, so Putin might be having a phone call from his dear friend Xi Zinping any day now!

Pentagon emails go astray, all the way to Mali

Millions of sensitive internal emails written by military staff employed by the Pentagon have been sent to the West African government of Mali, an ally of Russia, because of a basic typing error. The Pentagon email used by all the military ends with the suffix “.mil”. But by leaving out the ‘i’ by mistake, the emails have been going to “.ml” which is the domain used by Mali, a country that has been suffering from civil war and terrorism since 2012. None of the misdirected emails have included classified intelligence. But sensitive information has ranged from the travel itinerary of General James McConville, the US army chief of staff, prior to a trip to Indonesia earlier this year, personnel medical and tax records, maps of installations and photos of bases. Johannes Zuurbier, a Dutch internet specialist who was contracted by Mali to manage the .ml domain, told the Financial Times he first came across the flow of email traffic from the Pentagon ten years ago, and sounded warnings. However, with no sign of the wrongly directed emails coming to an end, he began collecting examples and wrote to the Pentagon this month. He said his contract with the Mali government was due to finish and warned: “This risk is real and could be exploited by adversaries of the US.” A Pentagon official said wrongly addressed emails were “blocked” before they left the .mil domain. But Zuurbier said that since January he had collected nearly 117,000 misdirected emails from the Pentagon, with about 1,000 arriving in Mali on one day alone. “If you have this kind of sustained access, you can generate intelligence even just from unclassified information," Admiral Mike Rogers, former head of the US National Security Agency (NSA), told the paper. Zuurbier said he tried many ways to let the Pentagon know what was happening, including appealing to the Dutch authorities to contact the US. Worried about the implications of the wrongly addressed emails he took legal advice. He gave a copy of the advice he received to his wife “just in case the black helicopters landed in my backyard”, he told the FT. “The department of defence [DoD] is aware of the issue and takes all unauthorised disclosures of controlled national security information seriously,” a spokesman for the office of the Secretary of Defence, said. “DoD has implemented policy, training and technical controls to ensure that emails from the .mil domain are not delivered to incorrect domains,” he said.

Has Putin got anything going for him?

Nearly everything has gone wrong for Vladimir Putin in the last 17 months and you do wonder what he thinks his options are now. The Nato summit in Vilnius will have given a little comfort because the 31 leaders of the alliance decided against offering Ukraine a timeframe for joining the western defensive organisation. But Putin knows that Ukraine will join some day and there's nothing he can do to stop it happening. So that's a big failure for him. As for the war, he and everyone else in the Russian hierarchy are keeping their fingers crossed that the Ukrainian counter-offensive which began weeks ago doesn't actually get anywhere. Ukraine's advances have been slow but there are signs that a big thrust might be on the cards very soon. If it succeeds and the Ukrainians break through the Russian defences, what then? Will the Russian troops turn and flee or dig in even more? There are reports that Russian troops are leaving from parts of Crimea because of persistent attacks on the peninsula which was annexed by Moscow in 2014. If Ukraine were to succeed in driving the Russians out of Crimea that would be the biggest humiliation of all for Putin. That's the point when the Russian leader might have to start thinking of the options left to him. Go for a settlement or full mobilisation of Russian males. Either option would be seen as desperation on his part.

Bibi Netanyahu and his extremist cabinet

Benjamin Netanyahu has been rushed to hospital with chest pains. Obviously one hopes he will recover well but perhaps while resting in a hospital bed he will have time to ponder on the disaster of a government he and his extremist cabinet have been running. Israel is more divided than ever. There is no hope of a two-state peaceful solution with the Palestinians while this cabinet is in charge, there are many more housing settlements going up to further reduce any chance of living peacably with a Palestinian state and Netanyahu is pushing ahead with his plan to emasculate the supreme court and take on more power for himself. Israel is a democracy but democracy as we know it is teetering on the edge. And it's all because the only way Netanyahu won the last election was because he teamed up with the most extreme politicians who want nothing to do with Palestine or Palestinians. The United States is Israel's greatest and most powerful backer. The two country's military are hand-in-glove. But if Netanyahu carries on the way he is right now there is going to be an almighty bust-up with Joe Biden, and if relations between WEashington and Tel Aviv seriously deteriorate that will be bad for Israel and bad for the whole Middle East balance of power.

Biden says Putin has lost his war

Presumably based on the most up-to-date intelligence and analysis, President Biden has declared that Vladimir Putin has lost the war in Ukraine and that victory belongs to the western-backed Kyiv government. That sort of declaration always makes me nervous. Remember when President George W Bush declared "Mission Accomplished" after the Saddam Hussein army in Iraq had been defeated in 2003. A new terrible insurgency war subsequently emerged and lasted for another eight years. I don't suppose for one moment Putin believes he has lost the war in Ukraine, even though some of his generals are telling him most days that it really isn't going very well. I think Biden, like George Bush, is being premature. There's a lot of fighting left in the Russian armed forces, and a grim determination by their commander-in-chief to keep on and on until he has achieved his goal. He won't make it, that I agree with, but that doesn't mean he won't just carry on regardless. One reason is that as soon as a settlement is reached and the fighting stops, Zelensky is going to be banging on Nato's door every day until he gets a date for joining the alliance. Then Putin will truly have lost. So when Putin reads Biden's statement at a press conference in Finland that Russia has lost the war, I fear his reaction will be something like: "I'll show you who is losing the war, and it ain't me." So Biden may technically be right in the sense that Putin has totally failed to do what he thought he could do very quickly but I doubt he is in a frame of mind to give up on his ambitions. And if he is forced into a settlement he is probably going to be allowed to retain some of Ukraine's territory currently occupied by Russian troops because that's what compromise settlements are all about. And Zelesnky has said no way. So the war will go on.

China's staggering warship-building capacity

China is now the world’s leading shipbuilder by such a large margin that it dwarfs America’s capability to produce “battle force” warships and submarines. The growing superpower has a shipbuilding capacity which is more than 230 times bigger than the total space available at US construction yards, according to the latest assessment by American naval intelligence. A US Navy briefing slide published in The Warzone¸ a US defence website, and confirmed as genuine by the Pentagon, reveals that China has enough capacity to build 23,250,000 million tons of vessels compared with less than 100,000 tons in the US. Fifty dry docks in China can physically accommodate an aircraft carrier, and 20 shipyards can support naval construction programmes, according to the US Navy slide. Thirteen yards are solely involved in warship-building. One of them, located in Dalian Changxing new development zone n Liaoning province, northeast China, has more capacity than all of the seven US shipyards combined, Carlos Del Toro, the Pentagon’s navy secretary, said in February. While China still has only three aircraft carriers, against America’s 11, the pace of Beijing’s warship-building programme is so rapid that by 2035, the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) is expected to have 475 combat ships – 120 more than it has today. This is projected to include five carrier battle groups. Combat or battle force warships include carriers, cruisers, destroyers, frigates, submarines, amphibious assault vessels and large support auxiliary ships. The gap, in terms of ship numbers, between the Chinese and US navies is causing such alarm that there is pressure in Congress and from within the navy to accelerate the construction programme. The current number of battle force ships in the US Navy is 296. The US Navy has requested $32.8 billion in its 2024 budget proposal for the procurement of nine warships, including one Columbia-class ballistic missile submarine, two Virginia-class attack submarines, two Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyers and two Constellation-class frigates. However, 11 ships are due to be retired. Under the navy’s five-year building programme there are plans to produce 11 new ships each year. But even at that rate, taking into account the vessels being retired, the US Navy would still only have 385 combat ships by the 2060s. The 11 carriers remain the US Navy’s most potent projection of power. But with global responsibilities, the carriers have to be deployed in many of the world’s oceans and more than half of them at any one time are in home ports, in American waters, under maintenance or engaged in long-term refurbishment. Currently, USS Ronald Reagan, the only overseas-based carrier, in Yokosuka, Japan, is in the Indian Ocean, USS Gerald R Ford, the new-generation carrier, is in the Ionian Sea in the Mediterranean, and USS Dwight D Eisenhower is operating off the southeastern US coast. The carrier USS Nimitz was in the South China Sea earlier this year but is now back in its home port. Underlining the constant pressure China’s navy is applying in the region, PLAN warships took part in a second day of large-scale exercises with the Chinese air force to the south and southwest of Taiwan.

Zelensky bites his tongue

Wisely and after a night's sleep President Zelensky has realised he made an error by castigating Nato for failing to offer his country full membership of the alliance. He was angry if not petulant. But today he has returned to his normal charming self and has thanked Nato leaders for their continuing support and looks forwrd to joining the western club in due course, or at least sometime after the war with Russia is over. There is such a thing as realpolitik, and someone must have pointed this out to Zelensky. While bringing Ukraine into the alliance sounds like a good idea, both for helping and protecting the Ukranian people and for two-fingering Moscow, that's not the way the world necessarily works. A million other things have to be taken into account, not least of which is that Russia is a country with around 6,000 nuclear warheads and we don't want or need to piss Putin off to such a degree that he claims his nation is facing an existential threat to its existence and starts loosing off the odd nuke. That's not to say the West should give in to Putin's nuclear blackmail card but it has to be a factor. The world is in enough trouble, climate-change-wise, without having the threat of a nuclear war hanging over its head. So Zelensky has to be patient. Ukraine's moment will come. The war will come to an end although right now I don't see how, and then alliance membership will be the talk of western capitals. I don't see this happening under Joe Biden's presidency, at least not by the time he completes his first term of office. If he wins in 2024, then maybe a year or so after that. If he loses in 2024 it could be Donald Trump making the decisions. Perhaps this is why Zelensky is so desperate to grab Nato membership as soon as possible. Can't say I blame him!

Zelensky asks for the impossible

Everyone on the planet with the exception of Vladimir Putin and Aleksandr Lukashenko, his Belarusian mate, respects and admires Volodymyr Zelensky. Since becoming president of Ukraine he has grown in stature, taking on the invading Russians like a David against Goliath. Backed by the West and western weapons his armed forces have fought a great fight and have stopped Putin from realising his dream of destroying his neighbour. Without Zelensky's commitment, drive, leadership and guts, Russia might well have triumphed. Now we know that Moscow will never win in Ukraine. Throughout these last seventeen months since the Russian invasion, Zelensky has been cryng out for more and more weapons, but also demanding recognition as a future valued member of the western family. Ukraine, he has insisted, deserves to be a member of Nato and the European Union. Fair enough, he and his country deserve this prize. But even he must realise that while the war continues Ukraine cannot join the Nato alliance. No country can become a member while there is a war going on on its territory. If Ukraine was allowed to join straightaway, then the alliance would have to join in the war to defeat Russia. He knows this can't happen. Membership can only be seriously contemplated once the war is totally over. But he wants more than that. He wants Nato at its summit in Vilnius to promise that Ukraine WILL become a member of the alliance within, say, two years of the war ending. But, again, that's not practical. All Nato can really promise is membership as soon as is practicable. He has attacked Nato for what he views as vague and uninviting language. But what did he expect? He has to be patient. The war could go on for years, and even if it comes to an end the likelihood is that Russia will retain some of Ukraine's territory. Then how will this sit with the rest of the country inside the Nato embrace? This is not a simple issue. It's a massive challenge which is why the 31 current members of the alliance - and soon to be 32 with Sweden joining - haven't a clue how to address it without pissing off Zelensky.

Putin sat down with Wagner boss five days AFTER the mutiny

Mysteriouser and mysteriouser. The Kremlin has adopted the strategy of Alice in Wonderland. You can never quite believe what you see or hear. Like the Mad Hatter, Putin held a tea party, or the equivalent, for 35 people after the mutiny masterminded by Wagner Group boss Yevgeny Prigozhin. The Wagner boss you will remember was exiled to Belarus after his march on Moscow with his troops last month. Oh no he wasn't. There was no ban, no exile, no dispatching to anywhere. In fact the main person at the tea party, apart from Putin, Sergei Naryshkin, the head of the SVR foreign intelligence agency, and Viktor Zolotov, commander of the National Guard, was Prigozhin himself. It was all a very chatty and pass-the-biscuits affair. No one got shot or sent to stand in the corner. Prigozhin said his piece about not being very happy about the way the war in Ukraine was going and the incompetence of the Russian generals in charge and then off he went to his pad in St Petersburg and is still there as far as anyone knows. So has Putin gone totally soft or are there some Alice in Wonderland mirrors playing tricks? Putin's dour spokesman has confirmed the meeting took place. So what on earth is going on? My view is that Putin realised very quickly that he couldn't risk having Prigozhin as an enemy. He either had to be bumped off and smartly or brought back into the Kremlin fold. Thus the Mad Hatter's tea party. Bizarre but kind of very KGB, and Prigozhin will know for absolutely sure, because the SVR chief will have whispered it into his ear, that if he so much as steps one centimetre out of line in the future, his days, along with his wealth and his fancy pads, will be numbered.

Putin ousts his top general from running the war in Ukraine

Putin has nearly run out of generals to take charge of his war in Ukraine. He has sacked so many that the strategy, whatever it was at the beginning, is now in tatters. The latest to get his marching orders is General Valery Gerasimov. He's the most senior commander in Putin's armed forces. As chief of the general staff he is the military boss of all the services. But he was given the added responsibility of masterminding the war in Ukraine after all his predecessors in that job failed to deliver. You would have thought that Gerasimov of all the generals available would have managed to get some success for his commander-in-chief. But apart from building up Russian defensive positions in eastern and southern Ukraine, Putin's army has been pretty static for months, first, waiting for the Ukrainian counter-offensive to begin and then attempting to survive the onslaught. What Putin wants, presumbaly, is some positive news, like the defeat of the Ukrainian army. But he knows that is not going to happen and now he has the prospect of his troops being showered by hundreds of thousands of cluster bombs, provided by the US. While the move by Joe Biden is highly controversial and opposed by many in the Nato alliance, the fact is these weapons could cause devastating casualties in the Russian trenches. So Gerasimov goes back to his old job and yet another war commander, Colonel-General Mikhail Teplinskiy, leader of Russia's airborne forces, takes over. There must be some doubt that the new man will fare any better than his failing predecessors.

Why the US is sending cluster bombs to Ukraine

Cluster munitions which can launch hundreds of little killer bomblets over the battlefield have an unarguable value for a military commander who wants to disrupt enemy defensive positions. They have already been used by both sides in the war in Ukraine. But a delivery of thousands of the American versions would give Kyiv a significant, albeit controversial, advantage in clearing the massive dug-out trenches and minefields that have seriously slowed Ukraine’s counter-offensive advances in recent weeks. The Pentagon’s view is that cluster munitions are legitimate weapons with clear military utility. In Ukraine they will also be used to attack Russian troop formations on the move, as well as disabling mechanised vehicles. Above all, they will help compensate for the Russian advantage in both troop and artillery numbers. The perceived value of cluster bombs on the battlefield is why the US has so far failed to join the 123 countries, including the UK, which have signed up to the convention banning production and deployment of these munitions. The US last used cluster bombs in Iraq between 2003 and 2006 but began phasing them out in 2016 because of the danger posed to civilians when munitions landed without detonating. Children have been killed and maimed by picking up half-buried cluster bombs, attracted by their yellow parachutes attached. During Nato’s intervention in the civil war between Serbia and Kosovo in 1999, for example, thousands of bomblets dropped by alliance aircraft failed to explode. Human Rights Watch claimed up to 150 civilians, many of them children, were killed by the munitions. However, the Pentagon delayed the phasing-out programme because it failed to find a suitable weapon system to compare with the cluster bomb’s effectiveness without leaving the fatal legacy for future generations. Today, the majority of the US military’s estimated three million forward-deployed cluster munitions are in and around South Korea in case of an attack by North Korean troops and armour across the demilitarised zone. But they are also located on American and allied bases in Europe. The bombs heading for Ukraine are called dual-purpose improved conventional munitions (DPICM) which are part of the stocks that had been phased out. They will be fired principally from US-supplied 155mm M777 howitzers. Every canister launched by the artillery pieces will contain 88 bomblets, capable of covering an area of about 30,000 square metres. They could also be fired from the American high-mobility artillery rocket system (Himars).The decision to send cluster munitions, following repeated requests from Kyiv, could bring forward an agreement in Washington to deliver another weapon on President Zelensky’s longstanding shopping list – the long-range US army tactical missile system (Atacms) which can also fire cluster munitions.

The arguments for and against Ukraine joining Nato

The biggest and most controversial issue for Nato’s 31-nation alliance at its summit in Vilnius next week will be whether to offer fast-track membership of the organisation to Ukraine. Would this be a step too far or has the invasion by Russia made it inevitable? Why should Ukraine be allowed to join Nato? Nato has an “open door” policy, inviting all countries in Europe to join the alliance under the right circumstances. The conditions are strict and include a commitment to democracy, rule of law, adherence to required military standards and elimination of corruption. Ukraine has progressed significantly in all these areas but is at war with Russia. Under Nato strictures, no nation can be considered for membership while engaged in a territorial dispute. Therefore, membership for Ukraine, whether fast-track or not, has to be postponed until after the war is over. But can Ukraine be told that it will definitely join the alliance once the war ends? Yes, but with conditions. First of all, every member of the alliance has to agree. One vote against and the momentum for membership falters. This is what has happened with Sweden. Turkey has so far refused to agree to Sweden joining Nato because President Erdogan accuses the country of harbouring militants from the banned Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), regarded as enemies of the Turkish state since 1984. Secondly, it could potentially still take several years for Ukraine membership to come into force. North Macedonia which became an independent nation in 1991 had to wait 20 years. Is it not too risky to let Ukraine join Nato, even once the war is over? As far back as 2008 at the Nato summit in Bucharest, alliance leaders agreed that Ukraine and Georgia should be offered membership but without a specific timeframe. Even then, it caused quite a stir. President George W Bush wanted the alliance to offer a formal membership action plan (Map) to both countries. This would have obliged Nato to move ahead straightaway with preparations for adding them to the membership list. But Germany and France led the way in opposing Bush, and the final summit declaration merely promised membership. Now there is a war in Ukraine and Russia is ferociously opposed to Ukraine joining either Nato or the European Union. President Putin has said such a move would be a direct threat to Russia’s security. The question that has to be resolved is: would Ukraine’s membership of the alliance add to peace and stability in the wider Europe AND deter Russia from further aggression or would it lead to regional conflict? What has Ukraine done to deserve Nato membership? In many ways, the Kyiv government is already half way towards meeting membership requirements. The US-led 50-nation coalition has sent arms and weapons worth billions of dollars to Ukraine to help defend against the Russian invasion forces, and has also provided training and finance. As a result, the Ukrainian army is being transformed from an old Soviet force with obsolete weapons into a modern, western European-style military power with advanced combat systems. President Zelensky has also espoused western values and introduced anti-corruption policies. It probably wouldn’t take long for Nato’s entry requirements to be met. What if Ukraine joins Nato and then Russia launches another invasion? Under Article 5 of Nato’s Washington treaty signed in 1949, any member nation attacked by an outside aggressor has the right to request military assistance from the rest of the alliance. The only time the article has been enforced was in 2001 after the 9/11 terrorist attacks in the US. It led to the war on terror. But in Ukraine’s case, if the Russians launched an attack on Ukraine after it had become a fully-fledged member of the alliance, it would lead to direct conflict between Nato and Russia. Similarly, if Russia attacked Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia or Poland, for example, it would provoke a full-scale war.Would Russia seriously consider a war with Nato? Ukraine membership of the alliance would unquestionably be seen in Moscow as a hostile move. Nato’s gradual expansion eastwards in recent years has been viewed by the Kremlin as a growing threat to Russia’s security, even though the alliance’s open-door strategy was never aimed at undermining Russia or, indeed, making Moscow feel vulnerable. But Putin has always painted Nato’s strategy as a plot to weaken Russia. For him, putative membership of Ukraine in the alliance was the ultimate proof of Nato’s hostility towards Russia. It would also end his dream of reviving at least some of the former Soviet empire. But would Putin go to war with Nato? Washington has repeatedly warned that such a war would be calamitous. Seeing the way his so-called “special operation” in Ukraine has gone, it’s likely Putin has got the message.

Trump still so far ahead of his rivals

Donald Trump is pulling in the big dollars, more than $35 million in just recent weeks. His momentum towards the Republican nomination seems unstoppable. Ron DeSantis is so far behind it's almost pointless him carrying on. Even his staff are beginning to voice concerns about the way the Florida governor's campaign is going. Can anything stop Trump from winning the presidential nomination? A jail sentence, another scandal? It seems not. Trump appears to be untouchable, despite all the allegations and accusations against him. It really is the most extraordinary phenomenon. Despite everything, he can still command the same loyalty he has always enjoyed and can still expect the donations to roll in. The major problem for those who want anyone but Trump in the White House is that the current president, Joe Biden, is losing his popularity fast. Americans are worried about his age and his mental faculties and with the way the world is going, the US is going to need a president capable of making rapid decisions and meeting crises with calmness and confidence. The more verbal gaffes we hear from Biden the less reassured the American voters will be about giving him another four years in the White House. This is one of the big reasons why Trump is riding high. The dollars he is getting tell the story.

Is there a Putin purge going on or not?

So far there have been no reports of people falling out of top-floor windows or bodies being found in dark alleys or individuals suddenly suffering from stomach cramps. In other words, Putin's purge (assassination) squads don't seem to be out in force to eliminate the Russian president's perceived enemies who might have supported the attempted mutiny by the Wagner Group leader last month. There was talk of certain generals vanishing. Indeed one general, General Sergei Surovikin, former commander in Ukraine and allegedly in sympathy with Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin has still not been seen in public since the march on Moscow and may have been disappeared. But Putin is trying to put it across that he is being magnanimous and keeps on praising the Russian army for being so loyal and nice to him. So a permanent vanishing trick by Surovikin might begin to look a little suspicious in due course. The FSB, successors of the KGB and groomed the same way as their Cold War counterparts, is supposedly still investigating possible traitors. So it may be that open windows in office buildings should still be avoided. If Putin was resolved to pursue a Stalinesque purge you would have thought the evidence would have been apparent by now. It may be early days. Don't ever underestimate Putin's revenge streak which runs through his body like jam in a doughnut. It's always there buried in his heart, ready to burst out when the FSB drops the files in front of him. Surovikin may still be alive but it was reported he had been detained. So if nothing emerges about his whereabouts or his future, we can only assume the news is bad.

Putin is surviving pretty well

Ukraine leader Volodymyr Zelensky says Putin's regime is crumbling. But I fear that is more wishful thinking than fact based on sound intelligence. Putin has done so many walkabouts since the aborted mutiny by Yevgeny Prigozhin, the Wagner Group chief, that it's clear he is trying to project himself as a man of the people. He is doing it pretty successfully, gathering loyal crowds him and planting the odd kiss on one of his subjects. Instead of hiding away in a bunker, in fear of further plotting against him, he has put his face in the crowds to demonstrate that he is still in charge. It's good public relations. The West, especially the media, focused on his disappearance after the so-called coup attempt and gave the impression he was hiding from everyone. His PR people must have seen the headlines and thought, right, you tabloids in the horrible West, we'll show you what our leader is up to. And voila, Putin is everywhere, smiling and handshaking and kissing. Brilliant! He has also given the whole army and security organisations a more than 10 per cent pay rise and suddenly all the concerns and fears about the war and Russia's sinking reputation have gone out of the window and Hero Putin is back in harness. So I'm afraid poor Zelensky's predictions of a Russian leader on his way out are somewhat optimistic. Putin ain't going nowhere!

Should Ukraine join Nato?

There are good arguments for Ukraine joining Nato once the war is over - if it ever does end. But there are also many reasons why it would be a bad and highly provocative move to let Ukraine into the alliance. The good arguments are obvious. Ukraine already has had western weapons, training, funding and advice, the sort of benefits that go with alliance membership. Kyiv, under President Zelensky, is fanatically pro-western and desperately in need of protection for ever from Russia which will never give up its hope of absorbing Ukraine under its wing like the good old Soviet Union days. Nato membership could/would deter Russia from attacking Ukraine in the future. The other arguments are these. Theoretically, if he is not replaced, Putin could be in power in Moscow until 2036. He has warned Nato again and again against moving ahead with more expansion eastwards. Ukraine and Georgia were on the possible membership agenda at Nato's summit in Prague in 2004, but sensible alliance leaders (not George W Bush) argued against, saying it was too early and appeared to think it should never happen because of the provocation it implied vis a vis relations with Russia. Every country wishing to join Nato also has to meet certain standards in terms of military competence, democratic values and lack of corruption. At that time corruption was a major issue against Ukraine's membership. Steps have been taken under Zelensky but corruption will remain a concern. The biggest issue is whether Ukraine membership of Nato will lead to more stability in the wider European family? Peace and stability are the bedrock raison d'etre of the alliance. No one can tell while there is a war going on in Ukraine whether Kyiv membership will have a positive or negative impact. Either way it's going to be a gamble. My own view is that Nato pushed too far, too quickly in absorbing so many additional countries into the alliance without really thinking of the consequences. In other words, it was more like a crusade than a sensible, practical policy. It's partly why there is a war in Europe right now. The main reason is Putin's paranoia and his aggressive imperialist dreams. But Nato expansion didn't help. So Ukraine should be given a special defence relationship with the alliance and meaningful security protection. But full membership, with Nato troops and tanks permanently based on the borders with Russia? It's difficult to see how that will spread peace and stability.

France seems to be filled with hatred

France is one of the favourite holiday locations for Brits. But now for weeks we have seen nothing but hatred in the streets of cities across the nation. The violence has been staggering. It's now a country in turmoil. The point-blank fatal shooting of a 17-year-old sitting in his car with a policeman literally aiming his gun at his chest through the window started it all off. But it appears to have provoked a mass outcry of hatred against the police and against the living conditions in so many of the dark suburbs of Paris and other cities. Whether Emmanuel Macron is to blame for this hatred it is difficult to judge. He did set himself up as a kind of old-style emperor which wouldn't have gone down well amongst the immigrant communities struggling without jobs and hope of a decent future. But in reality this problem has been building up for decades. Past French presidents have all played their part in failing to tackle the growing social unrest. Will Macron be the man to improve the lives of the immigrants? Right now Macron is reacting to the violence by putting more and more police on the streets armed with tear gas and anti-riot gear. While that may be unavoidable to protect French citizens who are not rioting, it won't be the answer long term.

US Supreme Court versus Biden

Even when Donald Trump is not president he is still in charge of much of what is going on in Washington right now. The Supreme Court is heavy with Trump-appointed judges and the decisions they have been making recently have all turned the screws on the Biden administration. Legal judgments or political judgments or a mixture of both? The most stunning overturn of a key Biden policy was his pledge to relieve students of the $400 million debts they had built up in loans. Biden promised to do this when he campaigned for the presidency and it was undoubtedly a vote-winner. Students go to college and university and leave with sky-high debts which they have to pay off for the next few decades. I always remember Obama announcing when he had at last paid off his student debts. But the Supreme Court with its Trump-appointed majority ruled that Biden did not have the power to cancel the $400 million debt. So now poor Biden is facing an angry student body across the nation. A reporter asked Biden whether he had given students false hopes which was pretty unkind. It was the Supreme Court and Trump's influence which destroyed students' hopes, not Biden. This is the United States and the way it works. The Supreme Court is by its very nature politically biased, so the way they interpret the constitution will depend on whether they are Republican or Democratic appointees. It's why one of the biggest decisions ever taken by the incumbent president is to stuff the Supreme Court with as many favourable judges as possible, not just to assist their policy programmes but also for the future when a president from the other party takes over.