Putin wields the big nuclear stick

Vladimir Putin is having another good day. He jumped in smartly when Emmanuel Macron suggested Nato might have to send troops to Ukraine and within a very short time every Nato leader was scurrying around making reassuring statements - reassuring to Putin, that is - that the alliance had no such intention. Sending troops would never happen, they said, almost to a man/woman. In fact, the way deterrence works is that one side or the other in an international security crisis situation, keeps alive the element of doubt. Otherwise, what is the point of deterrence? After two years of war in Ukraine when Russian troops are beginning to make some headway, Putin SHOULD be starting to worry about the potential consequences of what Nato might do if his invasion force makes big advances - it's not happening yet. But instead of having to take this into account he has been told in no uncertain terms that what Macron said was rubbish and Nato was definitely not going to send troops to help Kyiv. No need for Putin to worry then. To underline his satisfaction that his war threat had worked very nicely thank you, today in his annual state of the nation speech he added for good measure that any such move by Nato would lead to nuclear war. He has firmly put Nato in its place. Very worrying.

Trump is short of cash SHOCK!

Donald Trump can't pay the $450 million fine plus interest he is obliged to hand over as punishment for inflating the value of his properties and businesses. The billionaire simply doesn't have that sort of liquidity. It's a staggering admission and suddenly makes him look vulnerable and in real trouble. He has appealed against the huge penalty but to put a temporary halt on the financial crisis he is facing he has only managed to offer $100 million as surety. He has been told this is not enough. So now he may have to start selling off properties but obviously in the worst possible circumstances because any potential buyers will be able to screw him for a rock bottom price. And if a higher court fails to do what he wants which is to reduce the size of the penalty or cancel it altogether, he is going to have to find the cash pretty damned quick. This, more than anything, could begin to see the crumbling of the Trump empire and the repercussions of that could impact on his campaign to become president again. For Trump, money has always been the key to his persona as the all-powerful billionaire magnate who thinks he can rule the United States of America like a one-man TV show. The next few weeks will be crucial both for him and for his campaign. I suspect he will get a legal ruling in his favour but how long will he be able to delay paying a substantial part of the $450 million fine? Yes, this is Trump's most vulnerable moment.

Macron says we may go to war with Russia in Ukraine

Politicians often say things without considering the consequences. But what was President Macron thinking when he suggested that some Nato countries were contemplating sending troops to fight in Ukraine against Russia. Even if some country had raised this in some corridor somewhere, what made Macron put it into the public domain as if it was something seriously on the agenda? The remark brought instant reaction from the Kremlin which swiftly said Russia would go to war with Nato if troops were sent to Ukraine. We really can do without this sort of inflammatory dialogue. Macron must have known how his remark would be greeted in Moscow, so did he do it on purpose to stir up tensions with Putin? In the end he caused more trouble within the alliance, with most Nato leaders jumping in to reassure everynoe that there were no plans to send troops to Ukraine. Rishi Sunak, UK prime minister, bizarrely said there were no plans to send large-scale troops to Ukraine. What's that supposed to mean? It seems to suggest the UK could send a small mumber of troops. It was Joe Biden who said a long time ago that there would be no US troops on the ground in Ukraine. That's the line which the rest of the alliance was supposed to have adopted. So someone should whisper in Macron's ear that he should stick to the script.

Can the western alliance survive another Trump presidency?

Donald Trump will end up in jail or become the next president of the United States. There must be a lot of people, from the Washington establishment to the US intelligence community, to pretty well every leader in Nato who are hoping for the former rather than the latter. Or at least, if not a prison sentence, a legal tussle so great that even the most loyal Trump fan has second thoughts about putting him back in the White House. Trump is likely to put a political bomb under the Nato alliance and his choice of director of the CIA and director of national intelligence could transform the intelligence services into an arm of the White House rather than an independent organisation delivering truthful, accurate and responsible secret material. This is the sort of worst-case scenario which I am sure is now being examined very carefully by a multitude of very senior officials around the alliance. There are probably more fingers being crossed than at any time since the end of the Cold War. If Trump were ever to read my blogs he would undoubtedly consume this one with pleasure. He loves to stir things up and if he wins in November there is going to be the most almighty stirring up in modern American history.

What would Putin do if he lost the war in Ukraine?

Jake Sullivan, the super-bright US National Security Secretary, believes Ukraine could still win the war, provided they get the $60 billions in military aid from America. Does he really think that's possible or was he just ssying it to encourage the House of Representatives to pass the bill that has already been approved by the Senate, to continue funding Kyiv? More importantly, what does the Biden administration think might happen if Putin loses the war by which I assume that means a total withdrawal of Russian troops and the handing back of all seized territory? That will never happen in my view, but if the victory that Sullivan envisages means Ukraine will survive as a democratic state and will become a member of the western alliance and the European Union, is Putin going to lie down and take that or seek revenge? Defeat for Russia would be seen in Moscow as a massive humiliation, caused not by Kyiv but by the western alliance without whose arms Ukraine would probably never have survived. I think the West would then have every reason to feel concern about what Putin might do. If the diminutive Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, had his way, Putin would nuke the West to hell and never mind the consequences. So a victory for Ukraine could have unforseen and dangerous consequences. But clearly there is ittle point in continuing to arm Ukraine unless Kyiv does win some form of victory over Moscow. So there's a Catch-22 here which I don't think Sullivan or the Biden administration or Nato have fully addressed.

Could the US election be Nikki Haley versus Kamala Harris?

It's an extraordinary potential scenario but not necessarily out of the question. Donald Trump is forced to drop out of the Republican nomination race because of a conviction on a criminal charge, and Joe Biden decides to drop out for health and family reasons. Thus the November race would be an all-woman show - Nikki Haley steps in as the Republican nominee and Kamala Harris is slotted in for Biden's natural replacement. Whoever wins it would be America's first female president. This is the enticing scenario envisaged by Nikki Haley, the former South Carolina governor and way way back number two in the Republican race behind Trump. Ok, it's very much in her interests to suggest such a possibility but it's not totally unrealistic. Haley also said in an interview that if Trump did win the nomination, despite all his legal problems, he wouldn't win. Again, she just might be right. When voters actually go to the polls, a helluva lot of them might change their minds, unable to vote for a man who is facing 91 criminal charges. The bizarre thing is that in the South Carolina primary today, Trump will probably trounce Haley, even though she was the governor in the state. But she will be thinking longer term. Whatever the result in South Carolina, she will hang in there on the off chance her rival is forced out of the race. It makes a lot of sense. Even if Biden stays on for the election and refuses to drop out, Haley, ever the optimist, thinks she has a good chance of beating him if she gets the Republican nomination. But an election involving two women where a woman has to win? I quite like the sound of that.

Is Putin winning and when will the war in Ukraine end?

Ukraine is further away from winning the war against Russia than at any time since President Putin sent 360,000 troops across the border on February 24 two years ago. Putin’s objective of seizing control of the whole country and placing a pro-Moscow regime in Kyiv has not changed. Nor has Ukraine’s determination to preserve its sovereignty at whatever cost and to persuade the US and allies to continue backing Ukrainian forces with advanced weaponry and munition supplies to stop the Russians in their tracks and prevent them from further aggression in the wider region. So, after 24 months of fighting, is there any hope of the war coming to an end in 2024 or is a prolonged stalemate with the inevitable collateral of higher casualties and greater destruction the only realistic future for Ukraine? *Does Russia have the upper hand? The year has begun well for Moscow. The capture of Avdiivka in Donbas, albeit a town destroyed by Russian bombardment, marks a significant territorial win for Moscow. Russian troops have been trying to capture it since October and succeeded for two reasons – the Ukrainian defensive forces began running out of artillery shells, and the soldiers were exhausted after two years of fighting. In two years, the Russian military in Ukraine have been forced to adapt their mission strategy as a result of extraordinary lapses in war planning back in Moscow; notably the failure to take into account the Ukrainian army’s stubborn refusal to back down and the absence of any preparation for a confrontation lasting longer than a few weeks. The early commitment of President Biden to provide arms for Kyiv and to build a coalition of more than 50 countries to help Ukraine defend itself will have taken Putin by surprise. But the Russian leader always knew time was on his side and he gambled that help from the West might dry up if there was no quick victory for Kyiv. The continued impasse in US Congress over Biden’s $60 billion aid package for Ukraine has not only dealt a massive blow to Kyiv’s forces fighting with dwindling munition supplies but has also boosted Putin’s hopes that the fall of Avdiivka will be followed by further setbacks for the Ukrainian military. Unquestionably, Putin will fight on. He has little reason to pursue a peace settlement, even if Kyiv were to relent and accept territorial losses as part of a deal. *Could Ukraine defeat Russia? The much-heralded counter-offensive, launched in June, 2023, was intended to break through the Russian defences and win back the initiative. But the Russian military, under a succession of new commanders, had learnt the key lesson which was to focus on building massive defensive structures and laying minefields to stall the Ukrainian advances. Ukraine’s counter-offensive ground to a halt. However, the use of long-range missiles, underwater drones and special forces has led to a series of devastating attacks on Russian-occupied Crimea and against warships in the Black Sea. Nearly two dozen Russian ships have been damaged or destroyed in two years. Assuming Biden’s $60 billion defence package will eventually win Congress approval, Kyiv will suddenly be blessed with an array of weaponry capable of posing a long-lasting threat to Putin’s invasion forces. Some of the weaponry in the pipeline, notably F-16 fighter jets and up to a million bomber drones, could swing the war back in Kyiv’s favour. However, President Zelensky has sacked the one man popular enough in the army to inspire success on the battlefield. The replacement of General Valerii Zaluzhnyi as commander-in-chief of the armed forces with Colonel-General Oleksandr Syrsky seems unlikely to lead to a new strategy capable of achieving victory on the battlefield. *Could the election of Donald Trump as US president in November change everything? Trump has said he would bring the war in Ukraine to an end in 24 hours. He hasn’t revealed exactly what he has in mind. But it would probably start with a phone to call to Putin, and that would raise alarms not only in Kyiv but throughout Europe.

Biden says Putin is a crazy SOB!

Sometimes you just have to say it how it is. Joe Biden is known for his verbal gaffes but this wasn't a gaffe. He meant it and said it. Putin, he said, is a crazy SOB. He had the death/murder of Alexei Navalny in mind when he said it. So far there has been no reaction from the Kremlin but I guess Putin won't care in the least. He will probably see it as a compliment. It was only recently that Putin said he would prefer Biden to remain as president but he probably said that because he thought he could get away with more mischief under Joe's leadership than under Donald Trump's. But actually it's the opposite. The vast majority of Nato leaders I am sure would prefer to have Biden serving a second term in the White House because if Trump wins the election the alliance won't know from one day to the next what the hell Trump is going to do and, therefore, the cohesion which is vital for the alliance to function could vanish. That would be good news for Putin. So in many ways Putin should be hoping for Trump to win the election. But then I expect that's exactly what Putin really meant when he said he would prefer Old Joe to stay in the White House. Never take anything that Putin says at face value because, as Biden put it, he's a crazy SOB.

The Houthis refuse to back down

The Houthis in Yemen have become a force to be reckoned with. It seems amazing that this rebel militia force, albeit armed and backed by Iran, can present such a danger not just to commercial shipping in the Red Sea but to the US Navy and other allied navies patrolling the region. The Houthis held off the Saudi-led coalition which launched airstrikes for years until Riyadh had had enough and now it's the turn of the western coalition. Despite all the US-led coalition firepower on display in the Red Sea and eastern Mediterranean, the Houthis just carry on firing missiles and drones every day as if they have an inexhaustible supply. The counter-attacks which the US calls defensive strikes have destroyed some of their weaponry and command and control centres in Yemen. But all to no avail. Meanwhile, the US, in particular, is spending huge sums to shoot down the cruise missiles and ballistic missiles and drones. The US Navy has reportedly fired about 100 of its stock of Standard missiles each of which costs between $2 million and $4 million, depending on the variant used. So that's a bill of $200 million-£400 million for knocking down drones costing a few thousand dollars and missiles probably costing a few hundred thousand dollars. The US and Israeli navies try their best to intercept the cargo boats bringing the weaponry from Iran to Yemen but, patently, they are failing to stop the steady flow of arms from Tehran. The mighty deterrent capability of the US Navy has so far failed to deter the Houthis.

The voice of the Ukrainian people needs to be heard

There is so much more outrage about what is going on in Gaza than what has been going on for two years in Ukraine. Th sovereign country of Ukraine is being obliterated day by day. But the main focus of the world is on what Israel is planning to do in the city of Rafah in southern Gaza. While concern about the increasing humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza is understandable, the Ukrainian people have been suffering for two years, they have lost their homes, their loved ones and wake every day to the sound of artillery fire and missile attacks. The television news broadcasts each night show towns that are just rubble and smashed buildings. Andrew Harding, one of the best of the BBC foreign correspondents reporting on the war last night interviewed a Ukrainian man standing in his destroyed home, where he still lives, who summed up what most Ukrainians must now be feeling. All he wanted now was "peace, peace", even if it meant giving up some of the country's territory to Russia. Most of the time wars are fought only at the strategic level; in other words, with the war in Ukraine, Putin wants to dominate his neighbour and intimdate them to surrender while Zelensky desperately wants to fight on to prevent defeat and in the background there is the western alliance which sees the war in Ukraine as a way of stopping Putin from marching into eastern Europe. But it's the Ukrainian people who have to suffer while the Big Bosses wage their battles on the global stage. The voice of the Ukrainian man who wants peace whatever the consequences, is drowned out.

Will the looming attack on Rafah force the release of all the hostages?

Benny Gantz, the tough Israeli war cabinet member, former general and ex-defence minister, has effectively thrown down the gauntlet to Hamas: release all the remaining hostages by the start of Ramadan (March 10), or else the offensive against the Gaza city of Rafah in the south will go ahead. Rafah is where around 1.3 million Palestinians are living in crowded, tented camps, with nowhere else to go. So in a matter of three weeks the full force of the Israel Defence Forces will attack the city to find the Hamas leaders who are believed to be hiding in tunnels beneath Rafah. That's three weeks for Hamas to release the hostages, now believed to be around 130 but with up to 50 already dead. Since the hostages are Hamas's main leverage for stopping the IDF from entering Rafah, the chances of them doing a deal with Gantz, let alone Binyamin Netanyahu, would seem to be remote. Hamas is probably hoping that the whole world will apply pressure on Israel to abandon thoughts of attacking a city where pretty much the whole population of Gaza has sought refuge. Down in the underground tunnels and bunkers I have no idea how well attuned the Hamas leaders are to what's going on above ground in the rest of the world, but I guess they have a pretty good idea that Joe Biden is against an attack on Rafah and so, too, is the whole of Europe. But the gauntlet has been thrown. Since it is reported the current ceasefire talks between the US, Israel, Egypt and Qatar are going nowhere, Rafah is going to be the decisive place where the war in Gaza either goes Israel's way or it leads to a much wider conflagration.

Things couldn't be going better for Putin

The death of Aleksei Navalny, whether proven to be Kremlin-orchestrated or not, is just another piece of good news for President Putin who seems to be on a roll right now which is why he is smiling so much. The war in Ukraine is going better for Russia than at any time in the last year, with the Ukrainian troop withdrawal from the key Donbas city of Avdiivka. The city has been destroyed by continuous Russian bombardment, so there isn't much to withdraw from but it's still a big blow to Kyiv. Was the lack of ammunition, thanks to the impasse over Ukranian aid in US Congress, the reason for the loss of the city? It must have played a part. If the Congress blockage isn't solved soon, more cities will fall to the Russians. Biden has promised Zelensky that the $60 billion in aid due to Kyiv will be forthcoming in due course, but there are no signs of any anthusiasm among Republicans in the House of Representatives. So it could be a long time before any deal is reached, if it ever is. In the meantime, the Russians will take advantage and blast Ukraine's cities with a never-ending supply of shells and munitions. So, all in all, Putin is winning. Unlike Biden, he has no opposition to fear, and can do what he likes. It's a warning for the whole of Europe.

Is the massive fraud penalty the beginning of the end for Trump's White House hopes?

The punishment penalty of $450 million including interest handed to Donald Trump for business fraud is such a massive blow to the former president and his business empire that it could just spell the beginnng of the end of his political career. He is appealing but right now he must be wondering whether the omens are starting to look pretty bleak. He claims he is a multi-billionaire and I guess if he has to pay the penalty he will have to sell one of his many properties. But it's not just a question of finding the ready cash. The judge's ruling represents a mighty blow to his prestige and to the value of his empire. He can call "witch hunt" as many times as he wants but if he doesn't pay up, the bailiffs will arrive. It is a significant moment. If he gets convicted at any of the four trials he is facing, the reality of his position is going to hit him so hard he might be forced to give up his hopes of returning to the White House. We have all got used to Trump's fighting talk, but he is not immune from or above the law and it's catching up with him fast. No wonder Nikki Haley is determined to stay in the fight for the Republican nomination.

Aleksei Navalny dies but what can western leaders do but wring their hands?

Everyone has pointed the finger at Vladimir Putin for the sudden death of Aleksei Navalny, the one man with the courage to take on the Russian leader. He was poisoned with novichock by assassins while on board a commercial aircraft but miraculously survived. But as soon as he returned to Russia he was arrested and has been in prison ever since. He died in the bleakest of prisons in Siberia at the age of 47. He would never have been released, so he would have died in prison anyway. But at this young age? His death is both a tragedy and an outrage. But pointing the finger at Putin will get nowhere. Western leaders, from Joe Biden to Emmanuel Macron, have denounced Putin but all the talk of making the Russian president pay for the death is a pretty empty threat. Russia is aready awash with western sanctions because of the invasion of Ukraine. Another sanction or two will make no difference. So there will be a lot of wringing of hands but little else. The only hope would be if the Russian people protested in their hundreds of thousands but that's against the law in their country, so it would only lead to police suppression. Navalny has died but Putin will survive and will outlast all the western leaders who are now crying out for revenge. This is the real world we live in.

Putin going nuclear in space?

President Putin has a deep interest in exotic weapons, or superoruzhie (super weapons), demonstrated by his public enthusiasm for hypersonic missiles as well as nuclear-armed cruise missiles and torpedoes with allegedly unlimited range. Placing nuclear devices into orbit, potentially targeting America’s satellite systems, would be the latest example of Russia’s growing aggressive capabilities and would transform space into a new battlefield domain. It would force the US to develop and deploy new space-based counter-measures, adding another dangerous ingredient to the big-power arms race. Russia, China, North Korea and Iran are all investing heavily in space-related capabilities, especially anti-satellite weapons, posing a grave threat to America’s global satellite communications network upon which all branches of the US military depend for navigation, precision strikes and command and control. Russia already has an aggressive anti-satellite capability. It has conducted at least one confirmed test of a space-based anti-satellite weapon. In one incident, a mini-satellite was launched from its mother “ship” armed with a projectile that was then test-fired. Russian satellites have also been manouevred close to US satellites in a threatening manner. In 2021, Russia conducted a ground-launched anti-missile test on one of its own satellites, breaking it up into hundreds of pieces. Why would Russia take the next step and weaponise space systems with nuclear devices? The radiation from a nuclear explosion in space would destroy all satellites within line of sight of the detonation. It could have a devastating impact on US communications and early warning systems. In space, the lack of air would mean that the main destructive effect of a nuclear explosion would come from the radiation which travels through space at the speed of light. US satellites are hardened to withstand kinetic attacks and electronic jamming but would be defenceless against a targeted nuclear strike. Launching nuclear weapons into orbit would be a gross violation of the 1967 Outer Space Treaty, signed by Russia. Among other agreed principles, the treaty bans the placing of nuclear weapons “or other weapons of mass destruction in orbit or on celestial bodies or station them in outer space”. The potential ability to put nuclear weapons into orbit was dramatically demonstrated by the Chinese in 2021. Beijing launched a long-range missile that flew around the world and dropped off a hypersonic glide vehicle which travelled in low orbit all the way back to China and impacted about 24 miles from a designated target. The US military said it looked like a “first-use weapon”, capable of carrying a nuclear warhead. Beijing denied it. The technology was not new. It was pioneered by the Soviet Union in the 1960s and was then known as the fractional orbital bombardment system (Fobs). The successful 2021 Chinese test, however, and now the possibility of a Russian plan to launch a nuclear-armed anti-satellite system into space have underlined the future nightmare security challenges facing the US and its western allies.

Yahya Sinwar scuttles down an undergrund tunnel while Palestinians die above ground

The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) have broadcast a video showing the back view of Yahya Sinwar, the man accused of masterminding the slaughter of 1,200 Israelis on October 7, scuttling down a long underground tunnel with his family walking in front of him. How on earth the IDF got the video I have no idea but the imaging is effective. While this relatively small man with large pointy ears and baggy trousers not reaching his ankles is making his way to safety, Palestinians are dying by their thousands above ground as the IDF hunts for him and his fellow Hamas leaders. The video was taken down a tunnel under the southern city of Khan Younis, much of which has been destroyed by Israeli airstrikes and artillery fire. One wonders what is going through the mind of the Hamas leader in Gaza. Is he still able to communicate with his rank and file, is he just a man on the run, intent only on saving his life, or is he masterminding the war with the IDF? Everyone thought he was hiding in a deep bunker or tunnel under a hospital in Gaza City. But there was no sign of him. Next, it was said he had moved south to Khan Younis and the IDF switched their attetion to this city. But, again, no sign of him. Now they are saying he is in a tunnel under the southern city of Rafah which is why Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, has ordered the army to go for this city and find the elusive Hamas mastermind. But I expect when it happens, Sinwar will vanish to some other part of the underground world under the Gaza Strip. The war will go on and on until Netanyahu gets Sinwar, dead or alive.

To everyone except Netanyahu and Iran-backed Hamas, the two-state solution is the only solution

Binyamin Netanyahu will never accept a two-state solution for the Palestinians because he thinks of Palestinians as Hamas. He cannot disntinguish one from the other. So, with this thinking, once has been destroyed Hamas, if that is actually possible, he seems to believe there will be no need for a two-state solution because "Palestine" will have been effectively annihilated. Hamas doesn't want a two-state solution because all it wants is the destruction of Israel. So while Netanyahu and Hamas rule, there is no chance of a peaceful settlement after which the Palestinians can be handed their own nation. That's the tragedy of this conflict. Everyone else, from Joe Biden in Washington to the most influential Arab leaders in the Middle East, are envisaging that when the terrible war in Gaza ends, that will be the time for an historic, moment-seizing opportunity to rearrange all the chess pieces in the region: build a Palestine state, withdraw Israeli troops from the occupied West Bank, forge a new Arab/Israel relationship deal, and remove all reason and justifcation for future conflict. It's a bold and noble vision. But it's never going to happen while Hamas still exists and, sad to say, while Israel is led by its current longstanding prime minister.

Trump's invite to Putin to attack penny-pinching Nato allies is just blaa blaa blaa

Oh my goodness, Donald Trump really has put the cat among the pigeons. His remark about inviting Russia to do what it wants against a Nato country which fails to spend enough on defence has got European leaders on very high horses, to continue with the animal analogy. Shock, disbelief, condemnation, end of the world, we have had the lot. But this is Trump for heaven's sake. It's the sort of irresponsible, wicked remark he likes to make to stir it up and scare the life out of alliance nations who still, after all these years, have failed to spend the required two per cent of GDP on defence. The UK is one of those who have spent the two per cent although only just and with a bit of interesting accounting but then poured billions of pounds into two giant aircraft carriers which constantly break down. But as for those nations who have never got round to spending enough on defence, Trump cast doubt on whether the US, as the dominant leader of the alliance, would come to their rescue if they were attacked. What!!! shouted the alliance, not honour Article 5 of the alliance treaty, all for one and one for all? Mayhem!!! But, again, this is Trump. It's just his way, albeit alarming, of saying that if he becomes president again he's not going to stand by and let Nato members fail to do their duty on defence spending. He will have loved the reaction he got, just what he wanted. I go along with Marco Rubio, the Republican senator from Florida, who told a TV channel that he was unconcerned by Trump's verbal blast. He knows Trump better than most, and Rubio is a pretty sensible guy. So, Nato leaders can calm down. The world as we know it is not coming to an end. It's just another throwaway soundbite by the Donald. He said similar sorts of things before he became president in 2016, threatening to take America out of Nato, but the last time I checked the US was still very much leader of the alliance.

Biden has to liven up if he wants to remain president

President Biden has had a very tough week. Almost everyone in the country apart from those preparing themselves for the Super Bowl event tonight are talking about and are worried about his age and mental faculties. The problem is every time he opens his mouth he does little to calm people's fears that he no longer has what it takes to be president of the United States, the most powerful man in the world, as the cliche goes. He doesn't look or sound like the most powerful man in the world, whereas President Putin looks pretty chipper about his position on the planet, and President Xi Zinping always looks as if he is determined to become the most powerful man on the globe. There is only one piece of advice for Biden and that is he should bite the bullet and go on every TV station and talk endlessly about what he plans to do in his second term in office and give the whole country reassurance that not only will he beat Donald Trump but he will be an inspiring and dedicatd second-term president. Now there are a lot of Americans who no longer feel he is capable of doing any such thing. So the only way is for him to prove it again and again and again. Accept every interview offer and flood the TV channels, radio stations and newspapers with the Biden Doctrine. And raise hs voice somewhat. And, of course, not make any glaring mistakes. It's a tough call and it's a stategy filled with potential risk. But there is no other way. Will he take up the challenge? My suspicion is that his closest advisers will caution him to give as few interviews as possible. The omens are not good.

Putin's two hours of propaganda and paranoia

President Putin spent two hours in his interview with the American journalist Carlson Tucker underlining to the world how paranoid he is and how his interpretation of history is unlike anyone else's. Because he wasn't asked a single tough question by the former Fox News presenter, Putin sat there very comfortably smiling and joking and waffling on about the West plotting against him. I assume that Putin agreed to the interview on the basis that he was never asked any challenging questions. After the interview I can just imagine Tucker and Putin going off arm-in-arm to have a libation courtesy of the Kremlin. All very cosy. Poor Steve Rosenberg, the excellent Moscow correspondent of the BBC, couldn't resst saying in his report from the Russian capital that he had tried on numerous occasions to interview Putin but had always been turned down. But that's because Rosenberg would have had the temerity to ask a pointed question and not just let Putin ramble on. The impression I got from the Tucker intervew was that Putin is currently supremely pleased with himself because he sees everything going his way. His troops are well dug in in Ukraine and are not going to move, he says it's all Nato's fault for arming Kyiv and that all they have to do to bring the war to an end is to stop providing weapons. Well, that's sort of happening anyway because US Congress, or at least the Republicans, are blocking any more aid to Ukraine until Joe Biden agrees a comprehensive border policy to stop illegal immigration. So, yes, Putin is very pleased with himself and the way his strategy is working pretty damn well.

Who the hell is this guy Robert Hur?

The trouble with politics today is that there is no longer any respect. For anyone. Whether you are a president, a prime minister or a political grandee, all are open to abuse. Take this Robert Hur bloke. He is given the huge responsibility as a special counsel to examine whether Joe Biden committed a criminal offence by storing some classified documents in his garage when he was vice president. After months of investigation he came to the conclusion that Biden should not be charged with anything. If it had ended there it would have been professional and appropriate and common sense. But this Republican lawyer couldn't resist kicking Biden in the painful parts by casting aspersions on his mental acuity and doubted whether any jury would find guilty a president who couldn't even remember the day his son, Beau, died. Bloody rude, I say, and wholly unprofessional and unnecessary and disrespectful and patronising. Mever mind that he is the president of the United States. Just kick him where it hurts. Biden might not remember which day of the week it was when his son died but you as sure as hell know he remembers that terrible moment when he was told he had lost his son. So for this bloke Hur to joke about the president's inability to recall precisely when his son died is pretty atrocious. The US Justice Department which employs this person should eiher severely reprimand him for stepping way out of line or sack him for gross verbal misconduct.

US Supreme Court judges sound sceptical about banning Trump

It looks like Donald Trump might be on the road to winning a big legal triumph. Unless the judges of the US Supreme Court are playing Devil's Advocate, their questioning so far in the massive case - should Trump be barred from standing for president - looks to be on the sceptical side. I suspect all the judges are saying to themselves: can we really ban Trump? Section 3 of the 14th Amendment says an official cannot stand for reelection to a public office if he or she has been involved in an insurrection. The Colorado supreme court said Trump had to be banned from the ballot in the state because of his alleged involvement in the January 6 assault on the Capitol in 2021. The consitutional Amendment is pretty clear but can it be used in the Trump context? That's what the federal supreme court is now considering and they don't sound too enthusiastic about it. By all accounts the Colorado ruling was minutely argued but it's all about interpretation, and so far the most senior judges in the land look set to overturn the Colorado judges. If they do vote in favour of Trump carrying on his presidential campaign, it will be a win win for the former president. Not only will it allow him to pursue his path back to the White House but it will also provide a huge bonus for his lawyers who will be able to argue in the trial where Trump faces charges for insurrection that the US Supreme Court's ruling effectively undermined the prosecution's case. Trump walks.

Hamas counter-proposal looks to be unrealistic, if not dead in the water

So Hamas has come back with a counter offer after the US and Israel and Quatar agreed a ceasefire arrangement for the release of hostages. The Hamas proposal is probably already in the bin in Tel Aviv where Binyamin Netanyahu will have hurled it. They want a three-stage ceasefire ending with the total withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza. Joe Biden said he thought the Hamas proposal was over the top. Looking at it from Netanyahu's eyes it's dead in the water. But then there are the hostages and their families. The pressure from the families is going to get very very loud. At some point the Israeli prime minister is going to have to admit, at least to himself, that his military objective to kill every Hamas member on the planet is never going to be achieved. But even if he does realise that now after four months of war, he is still never going to give up until the top three Hamas leaders in Gaza have been captured or killed. If they manage to survive, the war will go and on and the hostages will stay hostages and the destruction will continue.

Can anyone tell Binyamin Netanyahu what to do?

It's very nearly four months since the horrific October 7 massacre of Israelis by Hamas and therefore nearly four months since Israel's retaliatory invasion and bombardment of Gaza. In that time has anyone been able to persuade Binyamin Netanyahu that the annihilation of Hamas by killing every member of the organisation is actually not the answer to everlasting peace in the Middle East? Killing never brings peace. Annihilation certainly will never bring peace. But Netanyahu has fixed his mind on one objective, the destruction of Hamas, and it seems no one is able to divert his attention away from this fixation. Certainly poor Antony Blinken, US secretary of state, hasn't mamaged to make the Israeli prime minister even blink. All his arguments about thinking of the future and how Palestine should have its own state once the war is over have fallen on stony ground. The trouble is, the Americans are not being pushy and they are not giving Netanyahu an ultimatum - start planning for the two-state solution, Israel and Palestine living alongside each other, or the US will stop sending you weapons and ammunition. That would be a pretty risky ultimatum because it would encourage Hamas, but how else is Netanyahu going to be persuaded to think about the future of the Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank. Blinken, as far as one knows withot being present, always talks in soft tones and never raises his voice. Perhaps it's time for him or someone else to look the Israeli prime minister in the eye and tell him in no uncertain terms that he is in danger of damaging the most important relationship Israel has. But I fear this is not going to happen. Blinken will plug away with his softly-softly diplomacy and Netanyahu will gnore him, politely.

The US Supreme Court's most momentous ruling in 23 years

On Thursday the US Supreme Court judges will begin hearing arguments about whether Donald Trump should be allowed to carry on campaigning for the presidency or whether he should be barred. It will be a stupendously huge decision either way, but especially if the judges decide he should be ineligible to run for office because of his perceived personal involvement in a series of events which led to the assault by his followers on the Capitol on January 6 2021. It can be safely predicted that if the Supreme Court bans Trump from standing for the White House in November, there will by violent demonstrations by his loyal fans. It could even lead to a mini civil war. But should the judges take this into account when they make their decision? To put it another way, should they give Trump the green light to stand for the presidency on the basis that were they to decide the opposite it would be tantamount to an invitation to provoke widespread violence and civil disobedience. As judges they should be concerned about the law and the constitution and shouldn't be frightened to make a controversial ruling because of the potential consequences. There is a third alternative which I predict will be the one they choose. They could rule that until Trump is convicted or acquitted of the crime of incitement to violence in violation of the 14th Amendment it would be both wrong and inappropriate to remove Trump's name from the ballot because it would be making an assumption about his guilt. If convicted in a trial, that would be a different matter. Then a ruling would be considerably easier. So my prediction is that the judges will not ban Trump but nor will they agree with the fomer president's lawyers that whatever he may or may not have done in the lead up to the January 6 attack, he should be immune from prosecution because he was the president. I don't see any judge agreeing to that premise.

Putin is not planning on being the ruler of the world

Lots of bad things are said about Vladimir Putin and most of them are probably accurate. But a desire to rule the world? No, I don't think so. First of all, he's obsessed with turning Russia back into a super-state and keeping neighbouring countries, particularly Ukraine, under his wing or at least sphere of influence. That will keep him busy for the rest of his presidency. He may like to threaten Nato countries but he is not going to war with the alliance, and he certainly doesn't want to invade the UK, or Spain, or Germany. That's all fanciful stuff dreamed up by armchair generals who need to get out more. Yes, the world is a crazy, dangerous place but unless we get another Hitler emerging with world-domination in mind, we are not, as everyone seems to think these days, only a few steps away from a third world war. Presumably and hopefully, the stockpile of nuclear weapons in the hands of Russia, the US and China will always guarantee that a third world war will NEVER happen. So, stay cool, everyone, and stop all this alarmist rubbish.

Bad luck, Trump, Biden's economy is booming

Donald Trump is fast losing one of his sticks with which he has been beating Joe Biden. The US economy is showing increasing signs of avoiding a recession and heading off into a stockmarket boom. This is one area which will always be crucial as the November presidential election aporoaches. What will project Biden back into the White House for another four years? It's the economy, stupid. And Trump will be getting increasingly concerned because the job market is blossoming and inflation is being kept in check. A good economy is great for Biden and bad for Trump because he has been going on and on about how useless Biden has been in looking after the country's finances. If the economy continues on its upward swing AND the wars in Gaza and Ukraine are brought to an end before November, I think the chances of Biden being voted back in will be very strong. Add to that the possibility of his rival, Trump, being convicted of a crime, then the election will definitely go Biden's way. But there are a lot of ifs and buts at this stage. With nine months to go, a helluva lot of things could go wrong, both for Biden and Trump. So it's still, I would say, 50-50. But with the ecnoomic news looking promising, it's just possible things are starting to go Biden's way.

Israel is losing its American partner

Antony Blinken, the US secretary of state, is once again travelling to the Middle East to try and make Binyamin Netanyahu see sense and stop destroying Gaza. Israel is losing friends in Europe over the deaths of civilians and destruction of homes in Gaza. But the danger for the Israeli prime minister is if he goes too far and alienates the US. Israel needs the US to be on its side at all times but right now Netanyahu has angered Joe Biden so much with his determination to continue the war until every Hamas leader and fighter has been killed that the US president seems to be at his wits' end. Netanyahu won't listen to anyone. He has set his face against any suggestion that he should stop the war. But it looks possible there could be a temporary ceasefire again to allow for the release of more if not all of the hostages. With the families raging against him for not getting the hostages home, even Netanyahu won't be able to reject a ceasefire proposal. But in his mind the war will then go on. I doubt Blinken will succeed in changing hs mind.

Biden's only real option is to bomb

With the head of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps declaring he doesn't want a war with the US, and the Iranian-backed militia in Iraq and Syria promising to suspend all attacks on American troops, Joe Biden might be tempted to call off retaliatory strikes for the killing of three US army reservists in Jordan. But that would probably be a mistake because Iran would think it had got away with the drone killings of three Americans. Unfortunately in so many parts of this turbulent world, force is the only option which seems to work in persudaing adversaries to stop their violent activities. Nevertheless, I suspect Biden will compromise. In other words, he won't go for the Tomahawk cruise missile strikes on the Republican Guard in Iran but will once again launch attacks on the militia forces in Iraq and Syria, but will do so in a more comprehensive way. That it hasn't happened already will be totally down to the fact that the US intelligence community hasn't yet pinpointed a target or targets which will give sigificant benefits, ie striking personnel and weapons stocks wkich will set them back and make them think twice before hitting US troops again.