So much confusion over the US bombing of Iran

Who is right about the US bombing of Iran nuke plants? The leaking of the initial assessment by the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) of the US bombing in Iran last week sent all the wrong messages around Washington. President Donald Trump had declared the bombings by B-2 stealth bombers had “obliterated” Iran’s three main nuclear sites. But the leaked DIA report rejected the president’s triumphant announcement. It dealt a political blow to the president and provoked a huge debate about whether the bombings had achieved the objective which was to destroy Iran’s ability to develop and build a nuclear bomb. Whether the leaker acted deliberately to undermine the president’s case is not yet clear. But the reality is that the DIA assessment was far too premature to give the true picture of what level of destruction those bombs achieved. Every expert in this field has said that it takes weeks for a proper assessment to be made; and it’s not just a question of looking at satellite images. A full assessment has to take into account a whole range of other sources – for example, on-the -ground human intelligence and electronic eavesdropping of Iranian government communications. Even then, it won’t be possible to be absolutely sure of the damage unless international inspectors are allowed down to the underground bunkers and see for themselves. The Iranian regime has, meanwhile, acknowledged that the nuclear sites have been damaged. The problem for the Trump administration is that the leak of the DIA assessment has created doubt, and Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei exploited that confusion by claiming the US had failed to destroy the country’s nuclear programme. The media has played a significant part in fomenting doubt about the bomb attacks, but that was inevitable and unavoidable after CNN first received the leaked DIA report. The report was a genuine document and the media seized on it. To try and downgrade the DIA assessment, Pete Hegseth, the defence secretary, and General Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, gave an incredibly detailed account of the bombings by seven B-2 stealth bombers which painted a very different picture. It appeared to be an immaculately well-planned operation, with twelve of the Pentagon’s heaviest and largest bombs dropped one after the other through a ventilation shaft at the main underground site at Fordo, south of Tehran. Assuming they all detonated, that must have caused immense damage to the facilities more than 2,000ft feet below. If that turns out to be the case, then the DIA report was basically not just premature but wrong. No wonder the FBI has been called in to investigate who leaked the document. The lesson learned from last week is that in this crazy social media world, everything becomes political. What was intended to be a triumph for Trump and for the Pentagon turned into a political battle, with the media and Trump critics seizing on the DIA assessment to cast doubt on the US military’s ability to damage, let alone, obliterate Iran’s nuclear sites.