Thursday 21 February 2019

Will Putin want Trump to win a second term?

It would be fascinating to attend a Kremlin session between Vladimir Putin and his tightest net of cronies when they discuss Trump Part Two. Does Putin want Trump in the White House for a second term and, if so, what will he do to help him get there? According to the US intelligence community, Putin did everything he could to get Trump into the White House in 2016, presumably in the expectation that Trump and not Hillary Clinton wohld be more conducive to improved relations between Washington and Moscow. But since then, relations between Trump and Putin have got so bad that they have returned to Cold War-style rhetoric. So why would Putin want Trump for another four years in 2020? Well, despite the on-the-surface deterioration in relations, Trump still hopes to get on with Putin and still hopes that the two can be friends. I think Putin knows that and would much prefer to have someone like Trump to deal with than, say, Kamala Harris or Joe Biden or any of the multitude of other Democratic presidential hopefuls. So watch out Kamala and Joe, expect some Kremlin trouble over the next two years. Putin is probably saying to all his insider cronies, "let's make sure we can help Trump as much as possible". Robert Mueller, special counsel, is supposed to be on the verge of producing his report on the collusion allegation and I'm sure that whatever conclusions he comes to, Moscow will be ready to dismiss any suggestion of a plot as nonsense. Trump of course will also have his "witchunt and fake news" explanation ready to go. So, bizarrely. some people might say that will be another example of Moscow and the White House indirectly working together! What Mueller says will be crucial, but the real threat facing Trump and his hopes for a 2020 reelection is the Democratic-controlled House of Representatives. Post-Mueller the Nancy Pelosi phenomenon will take off. So far she has restrained her colleagues from launching immediately into an impeachment drive. But if Mueller leans towards the collusion argument, the House will accelerate its own investigations and it will be a torrid time for the president. He will need all the friends he can get, and Putin might be one of them.

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