Will Hamas really disarm?

No one imagined that Hamas would voluntarily hand over its weapons and turn to politics and peace in the Gaza Strip. Even when President Trump announced his Board of Peace and the 20 stages towards a settlement to end the war with Israel, the sticking point, every analyst insisted, would be the disarmament of an organisation designated a terrorist group by the United States, Britain, the European Union, Australia and many other nations. Now, after months of negotiations, involving Trump’s two Middle East envoys, and mediators, Egypt, Qatar and Turkey, carried out without any fanfare, the seemingly impossible has been achieved. In what could be on one his most auspicious Truth Social posts, Trump announced that Hamas had finally agreed to disarm. Nothing in the Middle East is as simple as that. There are conditions which at this point might also appear to be unresolvable. For example, the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) will have to withdraw totally from their current occupation of around 53 per cent of Gaza. The announcement by Trump envisions a phased and concurrent disarmament and troop-withdrawal process. Under its new leader, Khalil al Hayya, appointed less than two weeks ago and with a reputation as a tough negotiator, it’s unlikely that Hamas will cooperate unless Israeli troops withdraw as per the agreement. Indeed, Hamas’s position prior to the Trump announcement was that the IDF had to withdraw from its so-called Yellow Line occupation before any disarmament took place. Nevertheless, the Trump Truth Social post provided the US president with the first piece of positive diplomatic endeavour for a long time. The five-month war with Iran has not gone the way he had wished and the Pentagon had promised, and the challenges ahead are becoming more complex and more frustrating for the White House as the strikes and counter-strikes continue. The Hamas breakthrough, if it turns out to be a genuine breakthrough, might just give Trump a new momentum towards his dream of a grand bargain for the Middle East, with or without the hardline mullahs and generals in Tehran. Trump’s envoys, Steve Witkoff, the president’s billionaire business friend, and Jared Kushner, his son-in-law, have been putting in the hours along with the regional mediators to push Hamas to this point. But there is still a long way to go and a large part of the future focus will be on persuading Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, and his most right-wing cabinet members that this is a golden opportunity, not to be missed. Under pressure from Trump who has said he will be “very, very disappointed” if Netanyahu fails to back the progress that has been made in recent months, the Israeli government will have little choice but to react positively, although no doubt with a large slice of scepticism and caution. History has shown that terrorist organisations do disarm (the Provisional IRA in 2005 and the Basque separatist group ETA in 2017, as just two examples). However, so much more is at stake with the Hamas decision. Could this lead, as Trump hopes, to a new, democratic and incorrupt government in Gaza, a decent life for the two million Palestinian people, and ultimately an independent nation, living in harmony with its Israeli neighbour? All these political objectives might seem far-fetched today when one remembers what happened on 7 October, 2023. Will Hamas genuinely transform itself from being what Israel views as a band of murderers, rapists and hostage-takers to an organisation prepared to sacrifice its bloodcurdling past for a fresh start? There are too many questions to be answered before any judgment can be made. For example, despite the IDF’s destruction of much of Hamas’s weapons stocks and underground war tunnels, the organisation still has an, albeit limited, arsenal of anti-tank missiles, short- and medium-range rockets and rocket-propelled grenades, and the means to produce more in bunkered workshops. Who will they hand the weapons to, where will they be held, or will they be destroyed? And how will the withdrawal of IDF troops from the Yellow Line in Gaza be orchestrated? Trump talks of a new Palestinian government. But will Hamas be represented if the disarmament process is completed? And will the Israeli government under its present leadership ever agree to an independent Palestinian state? Netanyahu is standing for re-election in October. There would seem to be zero chance that he will accept any such concept if he wins.

More and more countries being absorbed into the war with Iran

The number of countries being caught up in the US war with Iran is increasing by the week. Now it's Egypt being targeted by Iranian drones. The military rulers in Tehran are trying to incite a total Middle East war. Why they think this will help their own country and the poor Iranian people is difficult to fathom. But the leaders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps don't need any reminding that they were set up as a revolutionary force. In other words, their job is to spread revolution throughout the Arab/Muslim world. Iran wants to be the dominating nation, so it's all in their interest to show they can project power in opposition to what they see as the interfering western nations, mainly the United States. This is a revolution without end, and therefore Donald Trump, having started the war, must now contemplate the reality that Iran is never going to give up, or more specifically, the IRGC is never going to give up. The IRGC rulers are lapping up the chance to target everyone in the region to bring them to their knees. Reports in Washington today say Trump is getting angrier and angrier that he can't persuade Iran to do a deal. That will only encourage the IRGC leaders to keep going. This war is not going to end any time soon. If ever.

Europe will never patrol the Strait of Hormuz with a war on

A new government in London and suddenly there is an expectation rising in Washington that the UK, France and other European countries will send their navies to help patrol the Strait of Hormuz and keep the Iranians out. It isn't going to happen. Wes Streeting, the government minister translated from Health to Defence, seems keen keen to muster up some warsips to ride alongside the US Navy as a signal to Iran that the western world is now united against them. I'm not sure how this enthusiasm has suddenly emerged because I just don't see it happening. The UK position has always been that naval help is available for the Strait of Hormuz but not, repeat not, when the war is still uhderway. Well, as we see almost every day, the war IS still on and ships in the strait are being fired at. So any warships from Europe in the Gulf would become targets. While Trump would be delighted if his European allies helped out - and that would help with dodgy relations between the US and Nato as a whole - it's never going to take off. Did Andy Burnham say to Trump in his phone call that he would send the Royal Navy to the Strait of Hormuz? Did Streeting say the same to Pete Hegseth, his counterpart in America, that the Royal Navy was ready and willing? If they did, then they did so without the backing of any of the other European partners who will continue to say non, non, non, nein, nein, nein.

Netanyahu makes his pitch with Trump

It could be a very tricky conversation for Benjamin Netanyahu in the Oval Office today when the Israeli prime minister and President Donald Trump get together. The last time Trump spoke on the phone to Bibi, an expletive was used by the president. Netanyahu will be desperate to softsoap Trump and yet at the same time get his message across that the US cannot, must not, back out of the confrontation with Iran because it's now or never. The last thing the Israeli prime minister wants to hear is that Trump is desperate for the renewed peace talks to succeed so that he can end the war and claim victory. Netanyahu knows that victory against Tehran is still a long way off and however well the talks go, the likelihood is that the outcome will be bad for Israel. So there will be some sharp words today, I suspect, althugh Netanyahu knows how to play the game and he will want to leave the Oval Office with Trump's arms wrapped round him or at least holding on to his arm to show that he is once again back in his favour.

The hunt for Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei

It is the covert operation that is never officially discussed or confirmed but the hunt for Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei is preoccupying Mossad and the CIA. While President Trump considers his next move in the war with Iran, Israel’s foreign intelligence service and their American counterparts are jointly trying to trace the supreme leader who took power after his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed in an Israeli airstrike on February 28. The challenge for the world’s most sophisticated intelligence agencies is that the target has gone silent. Mojtaba appears not to have picked up a phone or opened a laptop for about 150 days. He is somewhere in a deep shelter, his face disfigured from injuries sustained in the airstrike that killed his father, and he does not dare emerge into daylight for fear of being spotted by an American spy satellite. To track his father, Israel and the US used every cyber trick in the book, including hacking traffic cameras in Tehran to spot the vehicles used by the former supreme leader’s bodyguards and associates. Technology, orchestrated by the American National Security Agency (NSA) and Israel’s equivalent, known as Unit 8200, uncovered where Ali Khamenei and his principal military and intelligence officials would be on that day. They were all eliminated. This time, it is different. Whether or not it makes sense to try to assassinate the new supreme leader when it is clear the military is really in charge of Iran, the fact remains that Mojtaba has a key role in the regime and decisions on military action and he has gone missing. The key to pinpointing his location is now human intelligence (humint), not eavesdropping and surveillance technology. There are still people in the intelligence community who believe he may be dead and that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is faking his survival to legitimise its war with the US. So what is needed is proof of his existence and confirmation of where he is hiding, perhaps in one of the underground tunnels in Tehran or the military bunker close to the religious city of Qom, about 90 miles south of the capital. With cyber sleuthing less effective, Mossad, with its network of agents inside Iran, many of them demoralised and disillusioned Iranian nationals, is prioritising its efforts on these two questions: Mojtaba’s status and his whereabouts. “The challenge for Israel is the same problem we had in trying to find and release hostages in Gaza,” said Rami Igra, a former division chief of Mossad. “Israeli intelligence controlled the whole of Gaza, every toilet was rigged [bugged] to trace where they were being held but we didn’t find them. There was too much reliance on electronic technology and not enough on real people, human intelligence. “Mojtaba may not be using a phone but if he exists at all, he has other forms of communication, like little pieces of paper. They are using multiple layers of couriers carrying messages. “These couriers are unaware of what they’re doing, other than taking messages from one person to the next. So, if they [Mossad] find him it will be because of a human element. But the regime in Tehran is aware of this danger.” Just as Osama bin Laden, the founder of al-Qaeda, was traced by the CIA through one of his couriers, so Mossad’s focus is on identifying and following those carrying messages to and from Mojtaba. “The only real way to get to Mojtaba is to recruit an agent who is in contact with him,” said Igra. “But this is very difficult because there is tough screening in Iran of all people close to him, and probably only two or three members of the IRGC know how to contact him. “We can also track other people using their phones and listen in on discussions about Mojtaba and where he might be. Iran is a country where the people are suffering from lack of money and we have ways of offering rewards on the internet for information,” he said. Are Mossad agents following key members of the regime to track Mojtaba? President Masoud Pezeshkian, for example, claimed he had spent two and half hours with the injured supreme leader and said he was fine. “This is bullshit,” Igra said. “The Iranian president never saw him.” Avner Avraham, a former lieutenant colonel in Mossad, identified another problem in the hunt for the ayatollah. “They are also using doubles, just like Saddam Hussein did,” he said. He added: “Mojtaba stays in different locations and people are employed to feed him. But what they don’t know is whether the food they are providing is for the real Mojtaba or a double. So they go home at night and believe they are looking after the supreme leader when it fact he’s probably a fake.” At some point, the Iranian people will demand to see their new supreme leader. He failed to appear for his father’s funeral this month. They only evidence for his existence is several official statements about the war issued in his name. Is it possible that to appease the Iranian people, Mojtaba might record a personal message, just like bin Laden used to do when he was hiding in the border area of Afghanistan and Pakistan? “Even if he doesn’t show his face, he could use his voice to give a message to the Iranian people,” Avraham said. “But that could make him vulnerable. It’s possible to glean information from the voice file, such as the type of recorder used and possibly the location where the voice was recorded.” A former senior US defence official said: “I am quite sure, given [the airstrike] on February 28, that Mojtaba is practising much better operational security and, as a result, human intelligence will be more important in the hunt for him. “I am sceptical about US humint since Iran has been a denied area for 40 years. Israeli human intelligence is clearly much better but it also has its limits.” If Mossad and the CIA manage to establish Mojtaba’s whereabouts, political leaders in the US and Israel will have to decide how to act on the information. A former leading US intelligence official summed up their dilemma: “I think we have probably dispatched enough Iranian leaders for the time being, unless there is very strong confidence that the current leader will be replaced by someone committed to a democratic future for Iran and who will ride in on a white horse.”

Tump's Qatari Air Force One scandal

When the Pentagon took possession of the gifted Qatari Boeing 747-8 airliner to convert into Donald Trump's temporary Air Force One - more luxury, less security - it was clear to all aviation experts that the plan to rush the new plane into use in less than a year for a mere $400 million was far-fetched, impractical, and potentially risky for the president. The Pentagon denied it and said the Qatari Air Force One would have all the relevant security features to make it safe for the president to use as his Air Force One wherever he went. Now we know this was simply not the case. When Trump took it to the Nato summit in Ankara, he was advised not to board it for the return journey because of fears of a possible Iranian-inspired attack on the plane. Why the concern? Because Trump's luxurily-fitted plane didn't have anti-missile defences. With a $400 millio price tag for the conversion of the Qatari plane, there wasn't enough money to install such crucial defensive systems. Clearly, the Secret Service was appalled which is why Trump had to return to Washington from Ankara on his old Air Force One which does have anti-missile systems and all the other security features which make it safe for the president to use in any part of the world. Now, surprise, surprise, the Quatari-gifted plane has been returned to the workshop for the full security adaptation. If it hadn't been for the fantastic stories by the New York Times, none of this would have materialised. But the story I wrote for The Times way back when Trump first accepted the Qatari gift said this: it would require at least $1 billion for the conversion work, all the crucial saftey features would be needed and it would take at least two years to get it done, all of which has proved to be right on the ball! PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER. WATERSTONES, ROWANVALE BOOKS, AMAZON

Trump's doubtful nuclear deal with Saudi Arabia

President Trump always had this dream of uniting all the Arab countries behind Israel in opposition to Iran. It still remains a dream. Last week, as part of this scheme for the whole region, the president announced he had agreed to transfer nuclear technology to Saudi Arabia, but then made it clear it was dependent on the royal kingdom agreeing to full diplomatic relations with Israel. One imagines that for the Saudi government this could be a condition too far, certainly at this time. Saudi Arabia has always insisted that any diplomatic agreement with Israel would only be possible once there is a deal going ahead for a Palestinian state. Israel under Benjamin Netanyahu is opposed to a Palestinian state, and Israeli soldiers are still occupying more than half of Gaza where peace is as fragile as ever. The other challenge for Trump is that the war with Iran is showing no sign of ending. Indeed, in recent days, the violence has escalated with US strikes every night on Iranian military targets and reciprocal attacks by Iran against countries in the Gulf region. The Houthis in Yemen, financed and supported by Iran, have now also rejoined the fight and have targeted Saudi oil tankers transiting the Red Sea. The escalation in the war has driven up oil prices to $100 a barrel, raising new concerns about the cost of living in the US and around the world. The announcement about the transfer of nuclear technology to Saudi Arabia provoked immediate concerns that at some time in the future, the Saudis might try to produce a nuclear bomb if they can learn the process of enriching uranium. Trump has said an agreement for the transfer of technology would not allow any future move to acquire nuclear weapons. Nevertheless, the timing of the announcement is not helpful when the president keeps on repeating that Iran must never be allowed to have a nuclear bomb. The broader question is whether Trump’s vision of a united Middle East is either practical or feasible in the current circumstances. The president himself has blamed Israel for any hostility towards the Israeli government around the world, citing the military action taken against Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon which have caused widescale deaths of civilians. It is difficult to see how an Arab country, such as Saudi Arabia, will contemplate lining up diplomatically with Israel while these attacks continue. The president started implementing his dream during his first term in office when Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates signed a deal to have full relations with Israel. It was called the Abraham Accords.Trump wants the Abraham Accords to embrace other Arab countries in his second term in office. But if the war in Iran and the Israeli action in Gaza and Lebanon continue, the chances of that happening are not hopeful.

Is Trump preparing for a big escalation in the war with Iran?

We have now had more than ten days of US raids on Iranian military targets, aimed at degrading the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' ability to attack ships in the Strait of Hormuz. But it's still not having the affect Trump is looking for which is a full backdown by Tehran and a return to negotiations. As a consequence, I think there is now a strong chance that Trump will up the ante and focus far more on the IRGC itself. This might even involve a temporary landing of troops in Iran to destroy an IRGC stronghold. If this happens, it will be seen as the biggest escalation of the war and a dangerous one because of the rik of casualties on the American side. But something has to happen. The US can't just launch raids every night on the same old targets - air defence systems, communications sites, maritime units, drone storage sites etc for months and months. A new phase must surely be coming, unless Tehran suddenly caves in and begs to go back to Switzerland for talks. There has been no begging so far, whatever Trump claims. So, my prediction is, watch out, Iran. Something bigger is about to happen that could send the IRGC reeling.

Trump warns he will hit bridges and power plants in Iran for every ship targeted in the Gulf

Donald Trump has vowed in the past to destroy Iranian civilisation. No one believed he really meant it. Now, however, he has told Iran via his Truth Social platform that every time the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps fires at a ship in the Strait of Hormuz he will order his military to bomb a bridge or a power plant. This time I think he means it. A lot of commentators have pointed out that deliberately targeting a civilian infrastructure site is a breach of the Geneva Convention. But then, surely, so is deliberately targeting a commercial ship trying to go about its business in an international waterway. So, unlawful or not under international law, the message from Trump might, just might, make Tehran think again about hitting ships. It probably won't because the IRGC which runs the country can't bear the thought of giving into Trump. So, more ships will be hit by missiles and drones. This means that in the next week or so, Iran is going to lose a handful of bridges and power plants. This is brinkmanship at its worst. One can only say, thank God Iran doesn't have a nuclear weapon because by now we would be in a nuclear stand-off.

War with Iran is getting bigger and bigger

So much for the much-trumpeted 60-day ceasefire. We had a few days of non-violence and then Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps attacked two ships in the Gulf and now every day it's war. If it goes on much longer both sides will run out of missiles and drones and bombs. The war is also expanding, with the Houthis in Yemen, always ready for a scrap, now intending to carry out their own blockade of Saudi Arabia. The US will have to deal with it which means taking warships and fighter aircraft away from the war with Iran. What must Israel be thinking right now? Netanyahu probably wants to get involved again, even though the Israeli military are still busy with Gaza and Hezbollah.The new British prime minister Andy Burnham is already under pressure from Trump to allow UK bases to be used for bombing Iran. Will Burnham reverse Keir Starmer's decision to allow only defensive strikes to go ahead from the bases? It seems unlikely unless Burnham is desperate to curry favour with Trump. So, for the moment, Europe is staying out of the war but might this change? Again, I think it's unlikely. Europe wants a negotiated end to the war and will continue to refuse to go to Trump's aid. But diplomacy for now is out of the window.When is the war ever going to stop?

Iran's deep-bunkered weapons sites are frustrating Trump

American bombs, cruise missiles and latest state of the art drones have laid waste to Iranian bridges, coastal defences, control towers and other military installations in the past week. But even as President Trump threatens to escalate the war and hit his enemy ever harder, Iran has so far proved capable of retaliating with its own strikes. Iran is relying on its survival as a military power, capable of confronting the US, on a network of underground “missile cities” and a developing nuclear site buried so deep in a mountain no American bomb can reach it. These deep, bunkered facilities stand between victory for Trump and a long drawn-out war which no one wins. In one of several interviews last week, the president declared the US would soon be targeting the nuclear complex known as “Pickaxe Mountain”, which is an affront to his demand that Iran should never pursue a nuclear weapon. Trump said the site buried under a granite mountain would receive “a nice big fat shot right in the front door”. The underground site, formally known as Kuh-e Kolang Gaz La (Kolang meaning pickaxe) is not yet operational but is located immediately southwest of Natanz, one of three nuclear sites hit by the US and Israel in Operation Midnight Hammer in June last year. So far, Pickaxe Mountain has not been targeted, even though US intelligence believes it’s being built to produce gas centrifuges for enriching uranium to weapons-grade level and for the enriching process itself. It has two pairs of extensively hardened entrances, east and west, and the caverns below where nuclear production work could be carried out are estimated to be more than 100 metres deep (about 330ft). Trump’s reference to hitting the site “in the front door” suggests any attack would aim to seal off the entrances rather than try to penetrate deep enough to demolish the underground caverns. The US air force has only one conventional bomb type capable of reaching deeply-buried facilities. But the 30,000lb GBU-57 massive ordnance penetrator (MOP), dropped by B-2 stealth bombers on Natanz and the two other nuclear sites at Fordow and Isfahan last year, can penetrate “only” an estimated 200ft underground. “An attack on Pickaxe Mountain could target the above-ground incoming power supply lines, the location of ventilation shafts [which is what the B-2s targeted in the attacks on the three other sites in June last year] and the open tunnel entrances,” the Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security predicted. “We’re watching Pickaxe Mountain very closely,” Trump said in the interview with Hugh Hewitt, a conservative talk show host on Salem Radio. “We’re going to take out Pickaxe Mountain. Tell the Iranians to be ready.” However, even with its now limited stock of MOPs - 14 out of an existing stock of around 20 were used up in Operation Midnight Hammer – the US military cannot guarantee putting Pickaxe Mountain out of action for very long. The same challenge has been found with Iran’s deeply-buried missile cities, dozens of underground sites located around the country where medium-range and short-range ballistic missiles and launchers are housed. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps aerospace force stores the missiles in multi-level tunnel systems, many of them also buried in mountains. Iran last week released a video showing two IRGC commanders (now both dead), touring the tunnels in one of the underground cities, seen lined with missiles and launchers. Previous footage on state media has shown extensive tunnels where stockpiles of weapons are stored. During more than a week of strikes, US Central Command has said its attacks would “degrade” Iran’s missile and drone capabilities. But the large-scale retaliatory attacks launched by Iran against Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Jordan and elsewhere in the Middle East, have demonstrated that the IRGC’s longstanding plans for war have paid off.

The war in Iran is being ramped up

The death of two US servicemen, killed in Jordan by an Iranian strike has lit the touch paper. Now more and more attacks by the US military are seemingly being aimed at Iran's civilian infrastructure. This is going to get very ugly for the Iranians. But will the regime in Tehran start thinking again about whether to call a halt to retaliatory strikes and hits on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and go back to peace negotiations? I fear this is all too late now. I believe it won't be long before we hear once again of US plans to take or destroy Kharg Island which is full of Iranian oil terminals and pipelines, just like we did weeks ago, except that Trump never went ahead with it. I think Trump believes, rightly so, that the Iranian regime can never be trusted and that, therefore, it needs to be taught a lesson it will never safely emerge from. This next week is going to see a thunderous response from the US. Donald Trump has now decided to go back to full-scale war with everything being seen as a legitimate target. Before this devastation gets underway, Tehran will need to think hard about the future of its country and the poor population which is in the midst of this nightmare.

This is a war with no red lines

Officials keep still using the phrase "red lines" when talking of the war between the US and Iran, as if both sides have an agreed limit to the direction and scale of the attacks with missiles, bombs and drones. In fact there are no red lines anymore, other than the nuclear one of course (one hopes). Iran has been attacking civilian targets in the Gulf since the war began and now the US has taken the gloves off and is attacking bridges, roads, power stations and other energy sites. Donald Trump vowed that next week, unless Iran came to the negotiating table, he would order the military to carry out huge attacks on Iran's infrastructure. That seems to have started already. So, forget the red lines jargon. All bets are off. The US will go for Iran's energy infrastructure, something which Trump has been promising to do for weeks. If it's on a large scale, then Iran's economy is going to go bust very quickly. It's amazing to remember that in the Memorandum of Understanding or Misunderstanding as one columnist in the US put it, Iran was promised a huge investment fund of $300 billion as part of the agreement to help reconstruct the country. Why on earth didn't Iran take that and get on with rebuilding the damaged country? Instead, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched attacks on ships in the Gulf because it didn't want ships to use the southern route close to Oman - out of their control. So so stupid and shortsighted. That investment money could have been used to bring the smile back to the Iranian people. But the IRGC doesn't care about the ordinary people, and now Iranians are getting scared because roads they need to connect communities are being bombed. When will the IRGC ever learn? PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER IN PAPERBACK. ROWANVALE bOOKS, wATERSTONES, AMAZON.

Is a negotiated settlement with Iran now off the table?

There really doesn't seem any point in renewing the "peace" negotiations between the US and Iran. Both sides are now rigidly in war mode. This is a disaster for the Gulf, for the Middle East, for the world. Donald Trump went to war and hoped for a quick finish. But failed. The "new" regime in Tehran, having lost its supreme leader through assassination, has never really been interested in doing business with the US but just wants revenge, however long it takes. Right now, the generals and mullahs want revenge by hanging onto the Strait of Hormuz, but they probably want personal revenge as well. This is a dangerous period. One hears very little these days of back channel attempts by Pakistan, Qatar and others to get the two sides together. So for the time being, probably the next two or three months, it's going to be war, war, war and no serious negotiations. Again, this is a disaster for everyone. It does demonstrate, does it not, that the United Nations is an ineffective organisation with no role to play at all. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER, A VERY EXCITING PAPERBACK PUBLISHED BY ROWANVALE BOOKS.

Five days of renewed war in Iran and still no peace

It looks like Iran is just going to stomach whatever the US hurls at it and wait for the moment when Donald Trump has had enough and turns his attention elsewhere. Remeber, there are still several thousand Marines waiting for orders from the commander-in-chief. Since being deployed to the region, they have done nothing except try and keep on board their warships. They haven't been anywhere near Iranian territory. Will Trump ever use them? I think not. The reason is that so far the war has been about weapons, not personnel. About thirteen US military personnel have been killed in Operation Epic Fury but not in Iran. Trump knows that if he sends in the marines and the infantry from 82nd Airborne Division also in the region, it could lead to a dramatic rise in fatalities. That's when people back home and Congress will start to get really angry about the war. For the vast majority of Americans it's just a war of drones and missiles happening a long way from home. But fatalities will bring home the truth of this war which is that at present there is no end in sight. Will Trump blink first or will the rulers of the regime in Tehran be forced to blink first because of the damage the war and renewed naval blockade is doing to the economy? No one is blinking right now but the nearer we get to the midterm elections in the US, the more likely it will be Trump who blinks first.

The war with Iran can't go on like this for ever

This tit-for-tat stuff can't go one for ever. At some time, those with a brain in their head will have to call a halt and suggest some way out of this nonsense. You can't bludgeon a whole country into submission. Well, at least not one like Iran. The Tehran regime has clearly decided it's not going to lose this one and will hang on regardless. It's an incredible lesson for the world's military superpower. Might doesn't always, in fact rarely, win the day. What we have at the moment with US Central Command carrying out more attacks every day and putting out statements saying the strikes are intended to "degrade" Iran's ability to target ships in the Strait of Hormuz, is all good and fine. But the strikes are NOT stopping Iran from responding with retaliatory missile and drone attacks on the poor Gulf states, and they are not making it safe for ships to go through the chokepoint. So, in other words, the daily/nightly strikes are destroying a lot of military hardware, but Iran seems to have an inexhaustible supply of weapons to fire at countries allied to the US. So, where is it going? Can this carry on for ever? No, of course not. What I want to know is this: what are Trump's military chiefs telling thir commander-in-chief? Do they just carry out his orders without offering any cautionary advice? Are they telling him that he is winning? It's very clear the US is not winning at the moment. So, why don't Pete Hegseth, the US defence secretary, and General Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, confront Trump and say they are getting nowhere? Because, they are afraid to do so. It's as simple as that. Just like the military chiefs in Moscow are afraid to tell Putin that he is losing the war in Ukraine.

What will break Iran?

With the war between the US and Iran effectively back to square one, what can Donald Trump do to make the Tehran regime back down and go for peace? It won't be from bombing and more bombing. That doesn't seem to work. The only alternative is to destroy Iran's economy. That would require a lot of bombing of all Iran's energy sites which basically allow the country to survive and mount such a leak-free naval blockade that all trade in and out of Iran stops totally. But will Trump go for the jugular? He has largely refrained from destroying Iran's oil terminals, partly because it would have a devastating impact on the Iranian people and world oil prices - thus the global economy. The blockade is back on, so Iran from today will start losing billions of dollars in revenue. But so far that hasn't worked either. As for Trump's announcement that he is going to take over the Strait of Hormuz and charge shipping companies a 20 per cent levy for benefiting from military protection is all hoo haa. You can't denounce Iran for threatening to charge a toll and then do exactly the same. So that won't happen. Basically, Trump is in a right old fix. Whatever he does or threatens to do against Iran, the new mullahs and generals in Tehran stubbornly refuse to cooperate. The war will go on and on and on.

Now the US uses navy drones to hit Iran

It's just like the war in Ukraine where Kyiv is using every type of drone - aerial, naval, underwater. Now for the first time the US has launched surface drones to hit Iran's missile boats and other targets. It's extraordinary how Ukraine has changed the face of warfare for the rest of the world. Israel actually started it years back when they launched aerial drones to hit Syrian air defence systems in the 1970s. Israel pioneered the use of armed drones in warfare, althpugh the US used drones for surveillance in the Vietnam War in the 1960s. But drone warfare has taken off in the battle between Russia and Ukraine, and the drones have become longer-range, more deadly, and far more accurate. Now it's drone warfare between the US and Iran, and the first use by the US of naval surface drones shows how everyone has learnt the lessons from Ukraine. The only trouble is, they are one-way weapon systems, ie kamikaze. Once they've fulfilled their mission, they are destroyed by their own explosives. What the US needs is a two-way naval drone, that comes back, arms up and returns. It probably won't be long. Iran is already using aerial drones to target ships in the Strait of Hormuz and oil facilities in the Gulf. The UK government has transformed its defence strategy by focusing more on drones than anything else. It's the drone warefare era until soemthing else turns up of course.

Looks like Iran will never give up

Whatever the US throws at Iran, the regime rulers still come up with an answer and launch strikes on Gulf states. Despite all the bombings that have taken place since the war began at the end of February, Iran still seems to have a plentiful supply of missiles and drones. How is this possible? The US is supposed to have hit Iran's drone and missile factories, so you would have thought by now the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps would be running out of stocks. But it is not the case. The US military has a massive advantage in terms of firepower but Iran is not cowed. It seems extraordinary that the IRGC can answer back every time they get targeted. This must mean that the Pentagon and the US intelligence community have seriously underestimated the missile and drone stocks Iran has. The bizarre thing is that the US cannot keep targeting Iran's arms production plants unless the IRGC makes the mistake of firing more drones against ships in the Strait of Hormuz. When the IRGC does launch strikes on ships it gives the US instant justification for launching massive retaliatory attacks. Does the IRGC not realise this? Apparently not. This is because the Tehran regime is so obsessed with trying to control the Strait of Hormuz it is literally inviting the US to target its weapons sites and communications facilities. It's madness.

Iran/US confrontation now at critical point

Tehran is claiming that the recent attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz were a mistake, carried out by some unregulated unit of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. I don't believe a word of it, there is no such thing as an ill-disciplined IRGC unit doing its own thing. Nevertheless, the military retaliation from the US was so huge that the rulers in Tehran realised it WAS a mistake, but it was their mistake, not some disobedient drone operating unit. So, Iran rushed off to Oman to talk about the strait and get the language sorted out between the two countries which, geographically, are in the dominant position either side of the strait. And then the severely injured and possibly disfigured new supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei issues a state,ent from his hideout that he wants revenge for the death of his father. That means only one thing if you're sitting in the White House. The ayatollah is threatening Donald Trump personally. So Trump instantly responded that he would destroy every part of Iran if there was an attempt on his life. It's one foot forward and three steps back. That's the way it is with this war. If the new supreme leader is calling on his citizens, wherever they are, to go for Trump, then this war is not going to end soon.

Nato doesn't know where it is with Donald Trump

The Nato summit in Ankara was as confusing as ever for those taking part. Donald Trump was in their midst and sounding off about the alliance being rubbish and not spending enough money on defence and failing to support the US in its war with Iran. And yet, at the end, Trump said he loved everyone, everyone loved him and the alliance had a bright future. Or words to that effect. Generally what Trump says in public is what he means. So at some stage in the summit, Trump must have thought to himself: "This organisation isn't so bad after all. Everyone is being so nice to me and when I want a quick nap no one jogs my arm." So when it was over, it was all sweetness and light. How long this will last we will have to see, especially now that the US and Iran have gone back to battering each other, and the issue of who runs the Strait of Hormuz remains as fuzzy as ever. It's never going to be a Nato war, but at some point the alliance will have to give more backing to the US, if only for the sake of the future of the whole of the Middle East.

Iran thinks it's winning. It's not

Every time the ceasefire between the US and Iran breaks it's the generals and mullahs in Tehran who start it by loosing off drones and missiles at ships which dare to take the southern route through the Strait of Hormuz, ie the Omani side which is protected by US warships. Why they're doing this is obvious. They want all shipping companies to obey their demands whch is for all ships to use the northern side of the strait, ie near Iran, which means they can control and eventually charge companies for the privilege. But every time Tehran orders drone attacks on shipping, violating the ceasefire, they get slammed by the US military. More air defence systems, drone factories, communications sites etc etc get destroyed. Iran is losing this current argument but still thinks it's winning. Tehran and especially the leaders of the Islamic Rebolutionary Guard Corps, are deluding themselves. The US Navy is not going to go away. It's there for the duration, and the more times the ceasefire is breached, the more strikes Iran will get from US bombs and missiles. When will they get the message? The big question is, does Iran actually want peace or does it think that by fighting for control of the Strait of Hormuz it will just have to carry on confronting the US....for ever? This is a hopeless strategy and eventually the US will actually win because so much of Iran's military infrastructure will be destroyed that it won't be able to answer back. But while the Iranian regime thinks it's winning, there will be no peace, just a constant violation of the ceasefire. The key thing for Donald Trump is that if he stays the course, Iran will eventually get the message and go for peace.

It's back to war with Iran as Trump calls its leaders "scum".

Donald Trump never chooses his words carefully. He just tells it as he sees it. So, when he was asked about the latest tit-for-tat strikes between the US and Iran, Trump said the leaders of Iran were evil and "scum". He repeated it just to make sure the reporter who asked the question had got the message. What hope is there now of a proper peace deal? None whatsoever. The leaders in Tehran had clearly decided to launch attacks on three ships in the Strait of Hormuz to coincide with the funeral of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the Nato summit in Ankara. They have heard the millions of Iranians attending the funeral in the streets of Tehran and other cities calling for revenge and decided to incite them into even hatred and anger against the US. Launching the drone and missile strikes, and then retaliating for US attacks with more than 80 launches against American bases in Bahrain and Kuwait was the Iranian regime's strategy to show the people that their brave military were protecting the country from American domination. Will the Iranian people be fooled? Don't they remember the slaughter in the streets not that long ago when their protests against the regime were met with brutality and mass killing? The talks in Switzerland between the US and Iran and intermediaries look doomed to fail. Trump doesn't seem to care. I suspect the talks WILL continue, but if Iran continues to behave the way it did on Tuesday- attacking the three ships - it will all be for nothing. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER. ROWANVALE BOOKS, WATERSTONES, AMAZON.

An oil tanker on fire shows Iran means business

Amidst the so-called negotiations between the US and Iran and the funeral of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, attended by millions seeking revenge, the Tehran regime is making it clear who is boss in the Strait of Hormuz. Donald Trump is being humiliated every time the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps ignores the "deal" reached with Washington anhd attacks yet another oil tanker, as they did today. Why? Because it was apparently using the wrong shipping route through the strait. A projectile was fired at the tanker, setting it on fire, because it was hugging the Omani coastline, instead of passing on the southern (Iranian) side. This is what is going to happen until every ship uses the route designated by Tehran. The mullahs and Iranian generals are getting away with it because they know Trump is desperate to hang on to the deal. In fact what Trump should do is reimpose the naval blockade of Iranian ports every time the IRGC aims a projectile at a tanker. If they are allowed to get away with it, this will be the future of the Strait of Hormuz. It will be controlled by the IRGC. Trump cannot let that happen. So he should take a tough line and make no concessions. There is no alternative. Otherwise, shipping companies will be punished every time they try to use the northern route through the strait. Punish the IRGC or do their bidding? There is only one answer.

Will Trump intervene over England's red card player?

It is pretty extraordinary that President Trump felt he was entitled to ring the head of FIFA and suggest that the red card handed to the US football team's number one striker should not disqualify him from playing in the World Cup game tonight against Belgium.. What I liked most was when Trump said he knew about these things and didn't think the player had caused a foul. Well, we all have views abouyt fouls on football pitches and it's rare for anyone to agree with the referee. So Trump is like one of us. But to pick up the phone and ring FIFA to get the suspension delayed for a year, that is a privilege we don't have. So, if you're Belgian, it all looks like a bit of corrupt inside dealing. The FIFA boss was very happy to do what Trump wanted, and I expect he called him Donald. Now that the England team have lost a player for the next match vecause of a red card, perhaps Trump can make a phone call for him as well. That would be more even-handed. But I don't expect Trump will do that. He doesn't care about the England team. He just wants the US to win the World Cup. It's a bigger scandal than doping. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER IN PAPERBACK. AMAZON, WATERSTONES, ROWANVALE BOOKS.

Nato at yet another crossroads

Nato has had a pretty disastrous period in recent years and now, with its next summit due this coming week, there will no doubt be a call for resurgence and more spending and closer ties and a united front against Russia. But will it mean anything? Alliance members are still struggling to find the money for all the new equipment and expertise required to fight the next war, or, hopefully, deter the next war, and it could be years before the whole organisation is, as it were, fighting fit for the future. Donald Trump has been scathing about Nato for so long, one wonders whether he will ever become a fan again. He will be at the Nato summit and will no doubt barge his way through the various leaders and chat up the only people he still seems to like, such as President Erdogan of Turkey and, for some odd reason, President Macron of France. I say odd, because the two are as unalike as you could imagine but Trump likes Macron. I think he's also fascinated by his much older wife. I doubt he will bother with poor Keir Starmer who is on his way out and whatever he says at the summit won't count, especially after the very modest amount of extra money he has agreed to spend on defence, as outlined by the Defence Investment Plan. Andy Burnham will be prime minister a week or so after Starmer returns from the summit, so no one will be interested in what Starmer says, apart from goodbye. Cruel, but true. Whether Nato will survive will depend on whether Trump has had a rethink and feels the alliance isn't such a bad thing after all. That just may happen, especially if everyone flatters him like he's some sort of Hollywood icon or whatever.

The political disasters looming for Trump over Iran

The confrontation with Iran has gone quiet. The bombing has stopped, oil tankers are once again going through the Strait of Hormuz. Is it peace at last? There is still a huge amount to negotiate during the 60-day phase of the peace discussions in Switzerland. But can President Trump now feel he has done enough to appease his critics who still claim the war with Iran achieved very little. Trump says he can always revert to bombing Iran if the peace negotiations fail. But it’s not in anyone’s interests, least of all the president’s, for the war to be restarted. If the Republicans are to retain their majority in the Senate and House of Representatives in the midterm elections in November, the president will need to demonstrate that the war is over and the benefits for the United States and for the whole world are tangible and longlasting. Oil prices have gone down substantially since the Strait of Hormuz was reopened but every time there is a spate of attacks and retaliatory strikes between the US and Iran, the price goes up. What Trump needs is a period of stability to allow the negotiations with Iran to continue without angry clashes between the US and Iranian military. However, even if the war is finally over, there are still potential politically negative repercussions for the Republicans and for the president. If Trump loses this argument about the Strait of Hormuz and his negotiators concede to Tehran’s demands to charge a service fee, it will be viewed as a major failure, not just by Republicans in general but by his MAGA supporters. If Trump were to give in to Tehran on this issue, it could have a disastrous impact politically for the Republican party in November.

Will the funeral of Ali Khamenei finally end the war or revive it?

Seeing the thousands of people gathering in Tehran to follow the funeral of the former Iranian supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, one wonders whether the tears being shed for him will provoke demands for revenge or whether there will be an acceptance of peace. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was one of the first victims of the US/Israel bombing that began at the end of February. He was deliberately targeted and was, therefore, assassinated as part of Donald Trump's and Benjamin Netanyahu's plan to bring down the regime he led. If there is to be peace it won't be out of love for Trump and Netanyahu. They will remain the enemy in the minds of Iranians. Indeed, when Iranian negotiators talk about developments in the peace talks, they always refer to negotiating with the enemy. The killing of their former supreme leader, and the severe injuries suffered by his successor, his son Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, will always remain the yardstick for Tehran's demands for a settlement. They will want revenge for their loss. This is a dangerous ingredient for Washington. If Trump wants a deal which makes it look like he has won the war, he will still have to make concessions as a quid pro quo for the death of the leader now being mourned in the streets of Iran's cities.

Putin is surely getting more and more desperate

Vladimir Putin is a wounded lion, growling and in pain but refusing to admit that his world is collapsing around him. He is ruining his country, destroying his people, wrecking the economy, sending more and more young men to their deaths in Ukraine, and yet still he hangs on in the belief that if he keeps launching drones and ballistic missiles at Kyiv, his hated enemy Zelensky, will cave in. But there is absolutely no sign of that happening. Zelensky is increasing the number of attacks on Russia itself and bringing the war to the Russian people. It is now a common event for Ukrainian drones to fly over Russian territory. It wasn't that long ago, a year or so back, when Putin hinted that if Russia faced an existential threat, he would have to resort to other sorts of weapons of weapons. Thank God, he hasn't done so. But at what point does he decide Ukraine is going too far? Hopefully this will never happen. But it is extraordinary that Russia is facing almost daily attacks. Why is there not an outcry in Russia, why is no one turning to their president and accusing him of putting the country at such risk? Putin survives however bad it is getting. Can this go on for ever? PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER. WATERSTONES, ROWANVALE BOOKS, AMAZON.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps will never give up the Strait of Hormuz

It is perfectly obvious that the regime in Tehran, and in psrticular the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, is going to hang onto some sort of control of the Strait of Hormuz whatever Donald Trump says. Tehran has been helped by Oman which sits on the southern side of the strait, which is also keen on having management (money-making) control of shipping going through the narrow channel. I don't see how Trump is going to stop it happening. Returning to war is not going to change Tehran's determination to maintain the leverage it now has, with or without Oman. This is a disaster for Trump, a disaster for the world's shipping industry, and probably a disaster for keeping oil prices down. If every ship going through the strait has to pay, say $1,000 or maybe $1 million, when using the strait, it's going to have a huge impact on oil prices and shipping insurance. It will deal a massive blow to Trump who has said publicly on numerous occasions that the Strait of Hormuz is an international channel and that fees can therefore never be charged. As the talks continue in Switzerland on this issue and the Iranian nuclear programme, I can envisage a settlement in which Iran is granted the right to charge some sort of fee for ensuring safety for all shipping in exchange for a deal over Iran's uranium-enrichment programme. I reckon Iran will go for that, and Trump will be forced to accept it so that he can boast he has stopped Iran from building a nuclear bomb. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER PAPERBACK. ROWANVALE BOOKS, WATERSTONES, AMAZON.