Iran thinks it's winning. It's not

Every time the ceasefire between the US and Iran breaks it's the generals and mullahs in Tehran who start it by loosing off drones and missiles at ships which dare to take the southern route through the Strait of Hormuz, ie the Omani side which is protected by US warships. Why they're doing this is obvious. They want all shipping companies to obey their demands whch is for all ships to use the northern side of the strait, ie near Iran, which means they can control and eventually charge companies for the privilege. But every time Tehran orders drone attacks on shipping, violating the ceasefire, they get slammed by the US military. More air defence systems, drone factories, communications sites etc etc get destroyed. Iran is losing this current argument but still thinks it's winning. Tehran and especially the leaders of the Islamic Rebolutionary Guard Corps, are deluding themselves. The US Navy is not going to go away. It's there for the duration, and the more times the ceasefire is breached, the more strikes Iran will get from US bombs and missiles. When will they get the message? The big question is, does Iran actually want peace or does it think that by fighting for control of the Strait of Hormuz it will just have to carry on confronting the US....for ever? This is a hopeless strategy and eventually the US will actually win because so much of Iran's military infrastructure will be destroyed that it won't be able to answer back. But while the Iranian regime thinks it's winning, there will be no peace, just a constant violation of the ceasefire. The key thing for Donald Trump is that if he stays the course, Iran will eventually get the message and go for peace.

It's back to war with Iran as Trump calls its leaders "scum".

Donald Trump never chooses his words carefully. He just tells it as he sees it. So, when he was asked about the latest tit-for-tat strikes between the US and Iran, Trump said the leaders of Iran were evil and "scum". He repeated it just to make sure the reporter who asked the question had got the message. What hope is there now of a proper peace deal? None whatsoever. The leaders in Tehran had clearly decided to launch attacks on three ships in the Strait of Hormuz to coincide with the funeral of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the Nato summit in Ankara. They have heard the millions of Iranians attending the funeral in the streets of Tehran and other cities calling for revenge and decided to incite them into even hatred and anger against the US. Launching the drone and missile strikes, and then retaliating for US attacks with more than 80 launches against American bases in Bahrain and Kuwait was the Iranian regime's strategy to show the people that their brave military were protecting the country from American domination. Will the Iranian people be fooled? Don't they remember the slaughter in the streets not that long ago when their protests against the regime were met with brutality and mass killing? The talks in Switzerland between the US and Iran and intermediaries look doomed to fail. Trump doesn't seem to care. I suspect the talks WILL continue, but if Iran continues to behave the way it did on Tuesday- attacking the three ships - it will all be for nothing. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER. ROWANVALE BOOKS, WATERSTONES, AMAZON.

An oil tanker on fire shows Iran means business

Amidst the so-called negotiations between the US and Iran and the funeral of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, attended by millions seeking revenge, the Tehran regime is making it clear who is boss in the Strait of Hormuz. Donald Trump is being humiliated every time the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps ignores the "deal" reached with Washington anhd attacks yet another oil tanker, as they did today. Why? Because it was apparently using the wrong shipping route through the strait. A projectile was fired at the tanker, setting it on fire, because it was hugging the Omani coastline, instead of passing on the southern (Iranian) side. This is what is going to happen until every ship uses the route designated by Tehran. The mullahs and Iranian generals are getting away with it because they know Trump is desperate to hang on to the deal. In fact what Trump should do is reimpose the naval blockade of Iranian ports every time the IRGC aims a projectile at a tanker. If they are allowed to get away with it, this will be the future of the Strait of Hormuz. It will be controlled by the IRGC. Trump cannot let that happen. So he should take a tough line and make no concessions. There is no alternative. Otherwise, shipping companies will be punished every time they try to use the northern route through the strait. Punish the IRGC or do their bidding? There is only one answer.

Will Trump intervene over England's red card player?

It is pretty extraordinary that President Trump felt he was entitled to ring the head of FIFA and suggest that the red card handed to the US football team's number one striker should not disqualify him from playing in the World Cup game tonight against Belgium.. What I liked most was when Trump said he knew about these things and didn't think the player had caused a foul. Well, we all have views abouyt fouls on football pitches and it's rare for anyone to agree with the referee. So Trump is like one of us. But to pick up the phone and ring FIFA to get the suspension delayed for a year, that is a privilege we don't have. So, if you're Belgian, it all looks like a bit of corrupt inside dealing. The FIFA boss was very happy to do what Trump wanted, and I expect he called him Donald. Now that the England team have lost a player for the next match vecause of a red card, perhaps Trump can make a phone call for him as well. That would be more even-handed. But I don't expect Trump will do that. He doesn't care about the England team. He just wants the US to win the World Cup. It's a bigger scandal than doping. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER IN PAPERBACK. AMAZON, WATERSTONES, ROWANVALE BOOKS.

Nato at yet another crossroads

Nato has had a pretty disastrous period in recent years and now, with its next summit due this coming week, there will no doubt be a call for resurgence and more spending and closer ties and a united front against Russia. But will it mean anything? Alliance members are still struggling to find the money for all the new equipment and expertise required to fight the next war, or, hopefully, deter the next war, and it could be years before the whole organisation is, as it were, fighting fit for the future. Donald Trump has been scathing about Nato for so long, one wonders whether he will ever become a fan again. He will be at the Nato summit and will no doubt barge his way through the various leaders and chat up the only people he still seems to like, such as President Erdogan of Turkey and, for some odd reason, President Macron of France. I say odd, because the two are as unalike as you could imagine but Trump likes Macron. I think he's also fascinated by his much older wife. I doubt he will bother with poor Keir Starmer who is on his way out and whatever he says at the summit won't count, especially after the very modest amount of extra money he has agreed to spend on defence, as outlined by the Defence Investment Plan. Andy Burnham will be prime minister a week or so after Starmer returns from the summit, so no one will be interested in what Starmer says, apart from goodbye. Cruel, but true. Whether Nato will survive will depend on whether Trump has had a rethink and feels the alliance isn't such a bad thing after all. That just may happen, especially if everyone flatters him like he's some sort of Hollywood icon or whatever.

The political disasters looming for Trump over Iran

The confrontation with Iran has gone quiet. The bombing has stopped, oil tankers are once again going through the Strait of Hormuz. Is it peace at last? There is still a huge amount to negotiate during the 60-day phase of the peace discussions in Switzerland. But can President Trump now feel he has done enough to appease his critics who still claim the war with Iran achieved very little. Trump says he can always revert to bombing Iran if the peace negotiations fail. But it’s not in anyone’s interests, least of all the president’s, for the war to be restarted. If the Republicans are to retain their majority in the Senate and House of Representatives in the midterm elections in November, the president will need to demonstrate that the war is over and the benefits for the United States and for the whole world are tangible and longlasting. Oil prices have gone down substantially since the Strait of Hormuz was reopened but every time there is a spate of attacks and retaliatory strikes between the US and Iran, the price goes up. What Trump needs is a period of stability to allow the negotiations with Iran to continue without angry clashes between the US and Iranian military. However, even if the war is finally over, there are still potential politically negative repercussions for the Republicans and for the president. If Trump loses this argument about the Strait of Hormuz and his negotiators concede to Tehran’s demands to charge a service fee, it will be viewed as a major failure, not just by Republicans in general but by his MAGA supporters. If Trump were to give in to Tehran on this issue, it could have a disastrous impact politically for the Republican party in November.

Will the funeral of Ali Khamenei finally end the war or revive it?

Seeing the thousands of people gathering in Tehran to follow the funeral of the former Iranian supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, one wonders whether the tears being shed for him will provoke demands for revenge or whether there will be an acceptance of peace. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was one of the first victims of the US/Israel bombing that began at the end of February. He was deliberately targeted and was, therefore, assassinated as part of Donald Trump's and Benjamin Netanyahu's plan to bring down the regime he led. If there is to be peace it won't be out of love for Trump and Netanyahu. They will remain the enemy in the minds of Iranians. Indeed, when Iranian negotiators talk about developments in the peace talks, they always refer to negotiating with the enemy. The killing of their former supreme leader, and the severe injuries suffered by his successor, his son Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, will always remain the yardstick for Tehran's demands for a settlement. They will want revenge for their loss. This is a dangerous ingredient for Washington. If Trump wants a deal which makes it look like he has won the war, he will still have to make concessions as a quid pro quo for the death of the leader now being mourned in the streets of Iran's cities.