Did Trump breach the executive order against assassinations?

In 1975 President Gerald Ford signed an Executive Order 11905 which banned any US official in whatever capacity, including the president himself, to engage in assassinations of heads of state and government leaders. It arose out of an investigation into the many attempts made by the CIA - eight in all - to cause the demise of Fidel Castro, the Cuban dictator. That executive order was reaffirmed by President Jimmy Carter and President Ronald Reagan. The executive order holds to this day. Yet, the first objective of Operation Epic Fury appears to have been the targeting and killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of Iran. So, that represents the first assassination of a head of state since that original executive order. Technically it was the Israelis who killed Khamenei because it was Israeli air force fighter bombers which dropped the bombs on the office compound where he and many of his officials and military commanders were meeting. But it was CIA intelligence which helped to pinpoint the ayatollah's whereabouts. So, it was really a joint US/Israel operation which ended with the death of Iran's leader. I don't know how the White House legal counsel will have advised the president. But some sort of justification must have been proferred. It's certainly one of the reasons why Keir Starmer refused to support the US operation. No one, apart from a few rabid Iranians in Tehran, will mourn for the loss of the ayatollah whose rule was notable for repression, brutality and an obsession with having a nuclear bomb. PLEASE BUY AND ENJOY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER. AMAZON, ROWANVALE BOOKS, WATERSTONES.

Will US weapons stocks survive a long war with Iran?

War is an expensive business. Even with a defence budget of $1 trillion, the US has to calculate whether it has sufficient weapons in stock to prosecute a short-to-medium length war without endangering reserves. General Dan Caine, the top military adviser to President Trump, laid out his assessment of how far the munitions stockpiles would be depleted prior to the decision by the commander-in-chief to go to war with Iran. Trump has stated publicly that the US has all the weapons it needs both to strike Iran and defend against retaliatory attacks. By all accounts, General Caine’s conclusions were more cautionary. This is not to say that on Day Three of Operation Epic Fury, the US military is running out of missiles and missile-interceptors. Far from it. As Trump pointed out, the Pentagon has pre-positioned stocks of weapons around the world, some of it on giant ships in Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean, and Subic Bay in the Philippines. However, a military superpower with global security responsibilities has to ensure at all times that in the event of a huge-scale war, such as that envisaged between the US and China, there would be reserves of weapons of every kind available to sustain a long conflict. This is the dilemma for the likes of General Caine, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff. If the attacks on Iran continue for four or five weeks, which Trump has now predicted, the arsenal of key weapons, notably Tomahawk land-attack cruise missiles, Patriot anti-missile systems, warship-carried Standard SM-3 interceptors and terminal high altitude area defence missiles (Thaad), will be significantly reduced. Each of these systems which have already played a substantial role in Operation Epic Fury, cost multiple millions of dollars. Replacements can take up to a year or more to come off the production line. The Pentagon for years functioned on the basis that it could fight two theatre wars simultaneously. But with the rising threat posed by China, this was dropped. This year’s National Defence Strategy document highlighted the need to defend the homeland and deter China in the Indo-Pacific. However, the US support for Ukraine over the last four years and the confrontation with Iran – in June last year during Operation Midnight Hammer against three nuclear sites, and today in the hoped-for regime-change mission – has expended offensive and defensive weapon systems on a huge scale. In the June operation, to protect Israel and countries in the Middle East where American forces are based, the US fired more than 150 Thaad missiles, about a quarter of the total inventory of 632 of these weapons which can intercept a ballistic missile in its final flight to a target. Thaad has been used to hit missiles targeting the United Arab Emirates in the present campaign. Each Thaad interceptor costs about $13 million, and it could take two or three years to replenish stocks. The US armada of warships sent to confront Iran brought hundreds of Tomahawks with them, each costing more than $1 million. Many were fired on the first day of Operation Epic Fury. They were also used against Islamic State targets in Nigeria in December, and frequently against Houthi rebel sites in Yemen. In Operation Midnight Hammer, more than 30 Tomahawks were fired at Iranian nuclear sites. As a result, the Pentagon has had to step up Tomahawk production but it can take two years to build one. Perhaps the greatest pressure for the Pentagon has come from the demand for the PAC-3 Patriot. missile system. Nineteen countries currently have Patriots, including Ukraine which always wants more, Taiwan, Israel, Saudi Arabia and Poland. One Patriot interceptor costs about $4 million and this system will be crucial for knocking out short-range Iranian missiles. Like President Putin who has been forced to convert Russia into a war economy to build enough arms to continue his fight against Ukraine, the Trump administration has had to supercharge the US defence industrial base to make sure there will be enough weapons to engage in long-term, high-intensity warfare. Reserve stocks have already been raided to cope with Ukrainian demands. Meanwhile, Operation Epic Fury is a sobering reminder to the Pentagon of the need to spend significantly more money on weapon systems that will dictate the success or failure of future military operations. “Stocks are in fact depleted and although the Pentagon has started to address the shortfalls, it will take time to get production going at a sufficient rate to replenish munitions expended in the [current] campaign,” said Eric Edelman, a former top defence policy official at the Pentagon. Iran has or had about 3,000 ballistic missiles and large stocks of Shahed long-range attack drones. To counter the threat posed by the missiles targeting Israel and Gulf states, the US has had to deploy a layered defensive wall, consisting of Thaads, Patriots and SM-3 Standard interceptors which are based on Arleigh Burke -class destroyers and in Ohio-class submarines. A Standard interceptor costs more than $10 million. One unknown is whether the Pentagon will once again turn to the 30,000lb Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) to hit targets. It can only be carried by the B-2 Spirit strategic bomber. US Central Command has confirmed that B-2s, flying from their base in Missouri, more than 6,500 miles from Iran, have been used in attacks. However, 14 GBU-57 MOPs were used against Iran’s three principal nuclear sites in Operation Midnight Hammer in June, and only 20 were built at a cost of up to $20 million each. The Pentagon is now urgently attempting to have more built, and a new version is also being developed. BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER PAPERBACK. 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Death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was Donald Trump's first objective

As soon as Donald Trump wad told by the CIA that the whereabouts of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Supreme Leader of Iran, had been tracked to an office building in central Tehran, the long-planned attack was hurriedly brought forward. The intelligence was absolutely crucial. Not only Khamenei but a whole bunch of his top advisers were all in the same building having a big discussion about the likely confrontation with the US. It was a gold mine of potential targets for a president who wanted above all to see regime-change in Tehran, followed by an about-turn on any ambition for a nuclear weapon. Khamenei, in power for nearly 40 years, was the key figure determined to keep alive the dream of having a nuclear weapon to threaten the US. With him gone, the debate in the White House would have argued, the nuclear bomb issue could also be resolved. The intelligence received about Khamenei's whereabouts was what is called actionable intelligence. In other words, act now before the intelligence goes cold or changes. So the Israelis were told and it was the Israeli air force given the task of bombing the office compound, not the Americans. Why, it's not clear. You would have thought that Trump would have wanted an American pilot to drop the fatal bombload on the Iranian leader, but the Israelis were selected. Israeli ground-attack aircraft took off at 6am and three hours later Khamenei was dead, along with the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, the defence minister and the chief of staff of the Iranian armed forces. It vwas the biggest possible blow to the Tehran regime, although Iranian officials were quick to say the regime would survive without Khamenei at the helm. It was a coup for Trump and a coup for Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel's prime minister. Israel had been tracking Khamenei for months, so that last bit of confirmation intelligence from the CIA was all Netanyahu needed to give the go ahead. One small thought: a dozen US F-22 Raptor stealth fighters were fowon from the UK to Israel last week. Could it be possible that any of these stealth bombers also took part in the killing of Khamenei. I'd be surprised if they weren't. BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER PAPERBACK. AMAZON, ROWANVALE BOOKS, WATERSTSONES.

Trump's war on Iran

The bombs started to drop early this monring and look set to be falling on Tehran and other cities where there are military and regime targets for the next week or so. This is a war which Trump chose. He diodn't seek Congressional approval, althpugh Marco Riubio, the secretary of state, did paint a pretty obvious picture of imminent war when he addressed the eight senior members of the Senate and House of Reprresentative intelligence and armed services committees a few days ago. Whether an air campaign will help Trump to meet his objectives which include regime-change is another matter. The Iranians have responded by launching ballistic missiles at Israel, Dubai, Qatar and Saudi Arabia. It looks as if the US and Israel together have tried to target the suspected hideaway of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the so-called Supreme Leader who has total authority over everything the Iranian military does. But there have been no reports of his demise. The more Iran's air defences are battered, the mnore unequal the war will become, and the US and Israel will be able to help themselves to whichever targets they choose. Provided Iran fails with its ballistic-missile launches - most of which have been intercepted so far - this war will be a one-way destruction path. Trump no doubt will soon be claiming victory. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER. CHECK OUT AMAZON, ROWANVALE BOOKS AND WATERSTONES.

JD Vance dismisses fear of a wider Middle East war

One assumes the US vice president and everyone else in the Trump administration is getting the same intelligence briefings about what might happen if America attacks Iran. Trump said General Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said it would be easy, and now JD Vance is dismissing any concern that a strike by American forces would provoke a wider war in the Middle East. Let's hope Vance is right but judging by the bellicose words coming out of Tehran, the ayatollahs are planning for massive retaliation if the US goes ahead with an attack in the next few days or weeks. Well, they would, wouldn't they, and it might be all blather. But the fact is, there has to be a real risk that a strike by the US now might lead to a prolonged military confrontation that could draw in other countries. The last time the US attacked Iran in June last year, Tehran retaliated with hundreds of ballistic missiles aimed at Israel and some against a US base in Qatar. If the US strike is very limited, aimed at persuading Iran to negotiate a nuclear deal, then it might not lead to a wider war. But Trump has amassed such a large armada of warships and bombers in the region that it seems unlikely he has in mind just a token attack. What he says will be limited just means the bombing raids will last for days rather than months. But that could provoke Tehran to respond in a way that would lead to serious escalation. Then everything will get unpredictable.

Trump in attack mode vis a vis Iran

President Trump has given every indication that he plans to launch limited bombing raids on selected Iranian military targets to encourage the Tehran regime to bow to his wishes. However, based on Iran’s previous responses to US and Israeli military strikes and the determination of the regime to hang on to power, Trump could find himself confronting a larger-scale war with potentially unpredictable consequences, none of which would meet the president’s primary objective – to force Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, to stop the country’s uranium-enrichment programme. As a result of this uncertainty, why is Trump so eager now to resort to military action once again? Does he really think it will be easy, as he claims his top military adviser, General Dan Kaine, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, suggested? What are Trump’s mission objectives? It could be argued that the main mission, the destruction of Iran’s nuclear facilities, has already been achieved. Operation Midnight Hammer last June caused severe damage to Iran’s three main nuclear plants. Trump warned at the time he would come back for more if Iran tried to rebuild the facilities. But there is no evidence that any of the targeted plants are being reconstructed, let alone operational. So, an attack on the crippled nuclear sites would be largely symbolic. Far greater a threat are Iran’s ballistic missiles which have multiplied since Operation Midnight Hammer. Missile production plants, targeted in the joint US/Israeli raids in June, were damaged but not beyond repair, and now, according to Abbas Araghchi, Iran’s foreign minister, “our missile power today far surpasses that of the 12-day war [the June attacks]”. Medium and intermediate-range ballistic missile launchers are reported to have been deployed to western and southern coastline positions in readiness for attacks on US forces in Iraq and elsewhere in the Middle East, and against Israel. If regime-change is on Trump’s list of mission objectives, a limited bombing campaign would not achieve that. Long-lasting regime change requires “boots on the ground”, and Trump is not going to order troops into Iran. Only Israel, with its unique Mossad capabilities embedded in Iran, could attempt a ground-based targeting of regime heads. But even if partially successful, it would not bring about a new-look government in Tehran which would satisfyTrump. Is the US military ready and what difference has it made that the UK has banned bombing flights from British bases? Judging by the massive redeployments of fighter aircraft and bombers in recent weeks, sufficient firepower is now in place for a short-lived attack operation. But the UK government decision and similar restraints imposed by countries in the Middle East (notably Jordan and Qatar) have forced US Central Command – in charge of the planned strikes – to rewrite the mission blueprint. RAF Fairford, RAF Lakenheath and Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean had to be crossed off. As a result, a dozen F-22 Raptor stealth fighters, one of America’s most advanced combat jets, flew out of the UK last week and are now based in Israel which, unlike Britain, will be happy to have the aircraft on its territory, either for bombing raids on Iran or to help protect Israeli cities from retaliatory strikes by Iranian ballistic and cruise missiles. Diego Garcia, the key British-owned (still) base for US long-range strategic bombing missions, is currently full of American military aircraft, notably F-16s and a range of air-refuelling tankers, but no B-2 Spirit stealth bombers. The F-16s would be there to protect Diego Garcia from Iranian attack. Six B-2s arrived in Diego Garcia in April last year for attacks on the Houthis in Yemen, after permission was granted by the UK government. This time, as with the Midnight Hammer operation last June, if B-2s are used, they will have to fly from their base in Missouri – a round trip of about 13,700 miles, double the distance from Diego Garcia and back. Why now and what could go wrong? A limited strike, especially if the US is joined by the Israeli air force, would unquestionably cause huge damage to targeted sites in Iran. The US has Tomahawk cruise missiles on board many of the 17 or so warships in the region, as well as the most advanced precision weapons carried by ground-attack aircraft on the two nuclear-powered carriers off Iran and in the eastern Mediterranean. Trump it seems was initially stirred to action by the deaths of thousands of protesters opposing the Tehran regime. But the build-up of US firepower has laid the foundations for a potential historic confrontation between Washington and Tehran. Is this really what Trump wanted, or has the massive show of force taken over the debate and added a momentum too rapid to stop? Prior to war, military commanders give their assessment of likely casualties. The worst-case scenario might be grim reading. In recent confrontations, Iran retaliated in relatively low--profile manner. The deployment of ballistic-missile launchers along the coast suggests Tehran has a mind to answer back with maximum force. American and Israeli lives will be at risk. BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY SPY THRILLER. AMAZON, ROWANVALE BOOKS, WATERSTONES.

Four years of war and Ukraine still resilient

In his worst nightmare, Vladimir Putin could not have imagined that after four years of attacking Ukraine with everything bar tactical nuclear weapons, his neighbour would still be fighting back, and, what's more, launching long-range drones and missiles into Russian territory. Ukraine has been hit so relentlessly with Putin's bombs and missiles that the country, in the depth of a freezing winter, has only 60 per cent power supply to keep the lights and radiators working. Amd yet, Ukraine and the Ukrainian people have never given up and are intent on striking back however long it takes. This won't lead to victory, as some Ukrainian commanders still insist is possible, but the resilience and determination shown means Putin is facing a for-ever war. He may have a war economy to keep his arms factories going, but is he seriously prepared to prosecute this war for another year, two years, three years or much longer. Russia is already struggling economically and the casualty level is so high that the figure of 1.2 million dead, injured or missing, seems realistic. In the last year, the Russian army in Ukraine has managed just a few metres of land-grabbing a week. And this sort of advance after four years! If Kyiv is sensible, it should now spend much more time attacking Russia over the border, bringing the war closer and closer to Moscow. No restraint is required any longer because Putin has shown no interest in doing a deal. So, Ukraine has only one way forward. Give the Russians a real taste of their own medicine. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY SPY THRILLER PAPERBACK, WITH A STRONG RUSSIAN THEME. AMAZON, RNWANVALE BOOKS, WATERSTONES.