Trump still thinking of hammering Iran

Has Donald Trump examined in detail what the US and Israeli military action against Iran actually achieved. If so, does he really think that another three to five days of bombing will do the trick and bring an end to the Tehran regime and to the war? It sounds like this is what Benjamin Netanyahu believes. One final shot and all will be over. This is both simplistic and over-optimistic or, to put it another way, downright wrong. Tehran has proved it can survive weeks of bombing. Another three to five days won't make that much difference, except that it will inflame the whole region once again and peace will be forgptten. Trump says has a mind to "hammer" Iran, sounding as if he is convinced of the argument that bombs are best and diplomacy is a waste of time. In the end, though, it will be diplomacy that gets this war sorted out. But it won't be a result that pleases Trump. Right now, his rhetoric is not helping. Iran is talking about exiting the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty which will be the clearest sign that it wants to push ahead for a nuclear bomb. If so, everything Trump thinks he has achived to stop an Iranian nuke will be wasted. Now is the time to do the nuclear deal, and bombing won't help.

A bad lose for Trump in midterms would also be bad for JD Vance

A huge amount is resting on the result of the midterms on November 3. It's not just about who wins majorities in the House of Representatives and the Senate. It's also about Donald Trump's final two years and, even more important, who benfits or doesn't benefit among the hopefuls who want to be president after Trump. The key figure must be JD Vance, the vice president. If the Republicans lose control of the House and Senate, as predicted by some pollsters, the repercussions will hit Vance hardest because his future status as presidential candidate will be severely harmed by Trump's fall from grace. It will be difficult for him to recover if the Democrats win both Houses of Congress. Marco Rubio, however, wouldn't be so badly damaged because as secretary of state and national security adviser, he will not be so closely linked to Trump's political failures. So, a bad result in the midterms might give him a boost, or at least place him in a less vulenerable position than the vice president. A big win for the Democrats, of course, would improve the chances of a Democrat winning the White House. However, that will depend on the quality of the contenders. Gavin Newsom, the California governor, clearly thinks of himself as the lead contender, but he has a long way to go to persuade voters he is the man to replace Trump. As for Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, the sparky Repreentative for New York's 14th congressional district, she has style and political guts but, at 37, her socialist agenda would probably put off too many voters of whatever persuasion. She is one to watch for the future, however.

How much longer can the Iranian economy survive?

Someone in the Trump administration must surely have worked out that at a certain point Iran's economy will be so dire because of the continuing US Navy blockade that the tough Tehran regime will be forced on its knees to beg for a deal with the US. That moment, it seems, hasn't come yet, but when will Iran's economy collapse totally without any income from the billion-dollar oil export business? No oil is leaving Iranian ports. Tankers are being barred from going anywhere, and those that try are being hit by missiles in their engine compartments. So, why isn't Tehran already begging for mercy? Will it take another month, another six months, another year? Donald Trump is not going to wait that long. He wants to escalate the pressure on Tehran by returning to bombing. But actually, with a little more patience in Washington, the Iranian economy will tank beyond repair and some sort of deal will be inevitable. With patience, the highly successful naval blockade cvuld do the trick. More bombing is unecessary and will only inflame the Middle East further. Patience is what TRump needs. But Trump is not a patient leader. He wants results quickly. Quick results is something Trump has singularly failed to achieve.

What will Trump do if he loses the midterms badly?

Donald Trump has been rallying throughout the country, trying to drum up support for the Republicans who need to be reelected on November 3. He claims the rallies have gone very well and he expects all the Republican candidates in the areas where he has visited to be returned to Congress. It's very possible he is going to be massively disappointed because the polls say the Democrats are going to sweep the board. I doubt the polls are that accurate. How the voting will go on the day is not necessarily what people tell opinion pollsters. Nevertheless, it's the midterm election that could ruin Trump's last two years in office. If the Republican party does do badly, as predicted, and lose both the House of Representatives and the Senate, the president is going to get angry. He will probably claim the election was rigged and take the matter to court. Or he could thumb his nose at the Democrats and do everything in his power to screw up their win, if they do win on November 3. One way of doing this is could be to make an executive decision to launch a new strike operation against Iran and not tell anyone in Congress, let alone seek their permission, as he should do. Perhaps people will be so scared at what he might do they will play safe and vote for the Republican party. No one really has a clue what Trump will do. But I doubt he will accept defeat quietly.

Trump still seems to be on the warpath

US Vice President JD Vance has offered to play chief negotiator with Iran to end the war and find a peace deal. It's a good move because the Tehran regime will believe that America is actually serious about finding a solution. But will it make any difference? By the sound of it, Donald Trump is raring to go to strike Iran again with a three-to-five day blitz. Benjamin Netanyahu looks most likely to form the next government coalition in Israel, so he has no doubt been on the phone to Trump to urge him on to, as he puts it, "finish the job". If Vance is going to get anywhere with negotiations he has got to persuade Tehran to offer concessions. One of them will have to be that the talks include discussions on Iran's nuclear programme. Not in six months time but now. The new regime in Tehran - worse than the one Trump and Netanyahu bumped off in February/March - doesn't sound like it is in the mood for any concessions. So Vance will have a tough time. But if he can get a settlement, against all the odds, he will burnish his chance of becoming president in the 2028 election. His main rival for the Republican nomination, Marco Rubio, the secretary of state and national security adviser, hasn't been involved in any of the top diplomatic negotiations, either for the war in Iran or the war in Ukraine. This could be Vance's big moment. Mind you, if he totally fails, then Trump will just order the bombers back into action.

Why did Putin agree to a ceasefire in Kherson region?

The ceasefire agreed for the Russian-occupied city of Oleshky in the Kherson province of Ukraine has now spread outwards. What is going on and does it mean Putin is thinking of offering more ceasefires in other part of Ukraine? This is all about politics of course. Melania Trump, the First Lady, was personally involved in brokering the ceasefire for Oleshky after it emerged the residents of the city were so desperate for food they were eating weeds. There has been no electricity, gas or water in the city for the last three years. The involvement of Melania Trump gave Putin a vital piece of public relations positivity. It looks like the appeal of the US president's wife was a golden opportunity for Putin to look "humanitarian". That word was first used when Putin agreed to release a US citizen from a Russian jail. Steve Witkoff, Trump's special envoy, praised Putin for being humanitarian. Now, Putin has supposedly given two examples of his humanity. This is a cynical business. But if the ceasefire in Kherson lasts for any length of time and it creates any form of momentum for other deals like this, it might build into something more than localised ceasefires. This is the hope. While it is difficult to be remotely optimistic about the war in Ukraine coming to an end soon, this development in Kherson might offer a slight opening of the door towards an overall settlement.

Will Netanyahu lose the election?

When someone has been around for so long, it's difficult to imagine them not being in charge anymore. Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister for nearly twenty years, has been the voice and face of Israel through a multitude of wars. He is Mr Security, even though he blundered mightily when Hamas raiders smashed their way across the Gaza border into northern Israel on October 7, 2023, and committed atrocities which cast doubt on the country's ability to defend itself. For that reason, Netanyahu should take the blame and should be ousted as prime minister. But the chances are he will hang on because even anti-Netanyahu voters will worry about giving the immense responsibility of protecting Israel from its many enemies to anyone else. Netanyahu also has the personal backing of Donald Trump which just might be a deciding factor. Whoever wins the most seats in the Knesset, it will still have to be a coalition, because in Israel's history, no leader has won outright, winning at least 61 of the 120 seats. So it will be a coalition, and even if Netanyahu loses out to a rival, such as Gadi Eisenkot, the former army chief of staff, he could still manage to form a coalition which keeps him in power. It's going to be close and we may not know the final result for some time. Whoever wins power, it won't help the Palestinians. Their future will remain unresolved whether Netanyahu wins or not.