Trump wants out of Nato!

Donald Trump has many times warned that he might take the United States out of Nato because, apart from the US, the rest of the alliance had failed to spend enough on defence. It kind of worked because everyone rushed to promise to spend more. Most of the other members of the alliance have committed to more and more spending over the next few years. We will see if that happens. But now the US president is so mightily angry with every member of the alliance for failing to join him in the war against Iran that he is seriously considering exiting Nato to punish all the allies for being ungrateful, cowardly, weak and a whole lot of other things. Europe, as far as he is concerned, qan go hang and can look after themselves, no longer with the US umbrella over them. He might just mean it and might just do it this time. His argument, I guess, which is not actually an unfair one, is that Iran with nukes and long-range ballistic missiles posed a real threat, not just to the Middle East, but eventually to the whole world. So, in other words, it wasn't just a problem for the US and Israel to confront but was a threat tp the whole alliance. But that argument has been given the cold shoulder by the alliance. They all said it wasn't their war. Theoretically, they are right because this was a war chosen by Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu, it wasn't a Nato war as such. The trouble is, because of the squeamishness of all of America's Nato allies, we are now in a position where Trump will for ever regard Nato as as a weak organisation that can't be trusted to help out when called upon. So, why, he will be thinking, bother with the organisation? It could happen, the US cold-shopuldering Nato. That would be a serious moment for the rest of the alliance. Very very serious, which is why a lot of phone calls need to be made to persuade Trump to drop the idea. Otherwise it will be a triumph for Putin! PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER. AMAZON, ROWANVALE BOOKS, WATERSTONES.

Should King Charles go to Washington?

It has been confirmed that King Charles and Queen Camilla WILL be going to Washington for a State visit next month. Confirmation came on the day when Donald Trump had another go at the UK government, tell Starmer and co that if they needed oil from the Gulf region they should go and get it themselves. It's a bizarre juxtaposition but not necessarily unusual when it comes to relations between Washington and London right now. There is little love lost between Trump and Starmer because of the prime minister's reluctance to go the whole hog and give the US military total access to whichever base they need in Britain to fly off and bomb Iran to obliteration. However, in the great scheme of things, it still seems right for the king and queen to continue with the long-planned return State Visit. Trump loves the British monarchy and it won't do any harm to the king's humble servants, which include Starmer, to feel a bit of warmth from the White House for a change. So, Charles and Camilla, go and do your diplomatic best to repair relations and persuade Trump to be less antagonistic towards the country with which the US shares a very special, historic relationship. Long may it last in these turbulent times. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER. AMAZON, ROWANVALE BOOKS, WATERSTONES.

Have the negotiations with Iran got anywhere?

The latest Iranian interlocutor vis a vis talks with third parties to bring the war against Iran to an end appears to be the Speaker of the Parliamemt, Mohamad Bagher Ghalibaf. That doesn't mean he won't be bumped off by the Israeli air force or Mossad but right now he's the main man. But has he yet shown any interest in making a deal? In public it's all belligerent rhetoric but as the days go by and more bombs fall, destroying military infrastructure, surely someone in the regime must be saying "enough". The real problem is that there is no one really in charge in Iran. The Speaker of the Parliament has always been a powerful position but he is not The Decision Maker. The Supreme Leader is the key figure, but Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei is an elusive individual who may or may not be injured. Donald Trump doesn't help by one minute being terrifically optimistic about a deal any day and then warning he's going to hit Iran bigger than ever or destroy their power plants to make them all live in the dark. If this is a negotiating tactic it doesn't seem to be impressing the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps which is carrying on firing missiles like it has an inexaustible supply and the IRGC leaders want revenge, not peace. Is this going to go on for ever or there something in the wind which will suddenly bring back the smile to everyone's face?

Delta Force's greatest challenge

Clad in radiation-protection suits and full-facial respirators, America’s elite special forces units have been training for this moment for years. Despite all the talk of behind-the-scenes peace negotiations, the seizure by force of Iran’s hidden 440.9 kilos of 60-per-cent-enriched uranium is still one of the primary options awaiting a decision by President Trump. The US Army’s Delta Force, modelled on Britain’s SAS, has carried out exercises every year to rehearse the removal of nuclear, chemical or biological materials in hostile conditions. The search for and safe extraction of Iran’s highest-enriched uranium, contained in the form of uranium hexafluoride gas inside portable pressurised steel canisters, would be Delta Force’s greatest challenge since it was formed in 1977. The mission, if approved by Trump, could also involve either of the two other special combat units trained and experienced in handling nuclear products: the Green Berets and 75th Ranger Regiment. The decision by Trump to deploy to the Middle East about 1,000 paratroopers from the 82nd Airborne Division’s immediate response force suggests their role could be to join two 4,400-strong US marine expeditionary units, also en route, in providing a security perimeter around the nuclear sites where the canisters of enriched uranium are believed to be buried. The dispatching of elements of 82nd Airborne Division which was among the last military units to leave Afghanistan in the chaotic withdrawal of August, 2021, has already caused alarm among former members of the 82nd. “Paratroopers always get the job done. I know because I also served in this division,” ex-Captain Jason Crow disclosed. “I also know what it’s like to be deployed with no clear strategy and end game. Americans deserve better,” he wrote on his Facebook page this week. Jason Crow, 47, is now the Democratic Representative for the 6th district of Colorado and serves on the House intelligence and armed services committees. He saw combat in Afghanistan and Iraq with 82nd Airborne and 75th Ranger Regiment. About 200 kilos of enriched uranium are believed to be buried in an underground steel-walled bunker at the nuclear Isfahan site, 270 miles south of Tehran. Isfahan was one of three nuclear sites targeted by the US and Israel in the 12-day war last June. The remainder of the 440.9 kilos could be underground at Fordow, about 100 miles south of the capital. The special forces units would operate with a US Army Nuclear Disablement Team (NDT) which is part of 20th Chemical, Biological, Radiological, Nuclear Explosives Command. There are three NDTs, all based in Maryland. Equipped with Geiger counters, they are trained to disable enemy nuclear capabilities. However, despite all this expertise, is it feasible to consider a special operations mission to remove the canisters; and what if some of the uranium – only 30 per cent of enrichment away from being fissile material for a bomb - has been withdrawn to another underground facility? Such as the one designated “Pickaxe Mountain”, a mile from the Natanz uranium-enrichment plant, southwest of the capital. Moreover, would 1,000 paratroopers from the 82nd and 4,400 marines be enough to support the special forces’ mission? The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) which has responsibility for protecting Iran’s nuclear sites, has been targeted by US and Israeli bombing. But before the war began it was more than 150,000-strong. A former senior US commander who served with the 82nd said: “I don’t even know where they [the airborne troops] can safely stage, much less what they might do. “I can see where paratroopers and marines might deploy on the ground in or off the coast of Iran but I think the risks in securing them once there would be enormous.” If the operation by Delta Force in January to capture Nicolas Maduro, the former president of Venezuela, is anything to go by, there will be an awesome display of fixed-wing aircraft, helicopters and drones overseeing the mission. More than 150 aircraft were used for the seizing of Maduro. Air assets currently part of the operation against Iran include U-2 spy planes, RC-135 Rivet Joint reconnaissance aircraft, E-11A communications aircraft, often called high-altitude WiFi platforms, MQ-9 surveillance and attack Reaper drones; and two key low-flying ground attack aircraft, A-10 gunships and Apache helicopters, both armed with rapid-fire cannons to target IRGC troops. “Everything would depend on the intelligence, not just of the location of the enriched uranium but where helicopters can land with troops in a secure area, and the positions of the IRGC units,” said a former British special forces soldier who has trained with Delta Force. “The Israelis will play a key role. They have agents everywhere in Iran who are pro-US and pro-Israel who will guide them.,” he said. “Provided the area where the uranium is buried is secured, the US special forces teams can take as long as they need to extract it. In exercises in the US, Delta Force used to use a giant balloon to lift up a dummy nuclear device, and a C-130 Hercules aircraft with a special fork-shaped contraption sticking out at the front would fly over and hook it up. In Iran, they would use helicopters to fly the canisters off to a ship. “The American special forces use Pegasus [Israeli-made spyware capable of infiltrating all mobile devices] to intercept everything on the ground. It’s a phenominal system and will allow the units to be kept informed of Iranian leadership command decisions” US Central Command which is in charge of Operation Epic Fury – codename for the strikes on Iran – is also now equipped with the Maven smart system, a battlefield management, artificial intelligence “military brain”. The AI software platform has revolutionised ground warfare, making it possible to collect huge amounts of data, analyse it and identify targets in less than a minute. It will help simplify what will otherwise be a highly complex ground operation. “Despite all the advances in technology and the training for this sort of operation, I find it difficult to believe they will risk a ground operation of this sort,” the former special forces soldier said. “There is also one crucial curve ball and that is that China and Russia will be helping the Iranians, especially the Chinese with their satellites, supplying intelligence to Iran,” he said. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER. AMAZON, WATERSTONES, ROWANVALE BOOKS

Another 10,000 US troops for Iran?

This is beginning to look like serious mission-creep. We already have two Marine Expeditionary Units arriving in the Middle East, plus 2,000-3,000 paratroopers from the 82nd Airborne Division. Now it is reported in Washington that the Pentagon has sent the White House a plan to deploy 10,000 more troops. Is this part of Donald Trump's campaign to put more and more pressure on the Tehran regime, or is it a sign that the president is deciding whether to go for a full-blown invasion of Iran? But if that is the case, the US would need to send more than 200,000 troops. Iran's main fighting force, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, is at least 150,000-strong and could have up to 180,000 troops. Ok, most of Iran's military infrastructure has been destroyed or damaged. But there is still a huge fighting force available to take on the US. This bit-by-bit increase in ground-troop presence in the Middle East doesn't really make much sense, unless it's purely for one specific role, either the taking of Kharg Island, the oil terminal location, or trying to grab the enriched uranium from its bunkered storage sites. Whatever is the thinking, this war looks like a much longer-term operation that the Trump administration had in mind when it all started on February 28. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER. AMAZON, WATERSTONES, ROWANVALE BOOKS.

Are we getting used to perpetual war?

When did we have peace everywhere in the world? Never. And now there are so many wars going on that we have been forced to change our view of the future of this planet. It all looks so grim. The Russian war against Ukraine is into its fifth year and the wars in the Middle East show no sign of ending soon. For those who have to suffer the results of bombing and missile dropping, it is infinitely worse, but for the rest of us who are lookers-on rather than victims, there is now an overwhelming sense of depression and negativity. Meanwhile, for the countries which have suffered wars that are supposedly at an end, such as Gaza, there is relief from the bombings but no sense of hope for the future. Other countries where there are for-ever wars, such as Sudan, the violence and terror has become a permanent backcloth, and even worse, nobody with political power in the West is doing much about it. This year, 2026, will go down in history as a year of death and destruction across so many parts of the globe. Will 2027 be any better?

Trump's plan to end the war with Iran is rejected by Tehran

The 15-point plan to end the war in Iran looked very similar to the proposals made before the bombs started falling and it was rejected then, as it has been today. Perhaps Trump thought it best to start with a wish list and then agree to some sort of compromise. The classic negotiating stance. Tehran, under its new regime leadership, appeared to show little interest, although supposedly is ready to talk. To the rest of the world, it doesn't look as if this new regime will be ready to do anything but take the punishment it's getting daily and answer back with ballistic missiles, some of which (too many) are getting through defences, This is perhaps the most worrying development. Even Israel's famous Iron Dome and Arrow anti-missile systems are not proving capable of knocking out everything thrown at them from Iran. Although the number of missiles has reduced significantly because of targeted bombing by the Americans and Israelis, enough are getting through to cause deaths, injury and destruction of buildings. This will give the new leaders in Tehran an incentive to carry on launching missiles. This is bad news and not helpful for Trump who now wants to wind it all up. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER, A PAPERBACK. AMAZON, ROWANVALE BOOKS, WATERSTONES.