Trump has to "win" the war in Iran before midterms

If the war with Iran is still going on by the midterm elections in November, Donald Trump could be a big loser. The Republicans could lose the House of Representatives and maybe even the Senate. So the president has less than six months to find a solution which he would be able to describe as a victory. Iran is not going to help him. In fact with this setting up of the so-called Persian Gulf Strait Authority which Tehran intends to use as a way of charging all ships fees for passing through the chokepoint (possibly sharing the funds with Oman across the water), it means the Islamic revolutionary rulers in Iran will become the Mafia bosses of the strait. It's protection money - "you pay a fee or else we attack you and burn your ship". Trump could never describe that as a victory. Likewise, if the nuclear issue is not reolved that will also prevent Trump from ending the war satisfactorily. One way or another, those 440.9 kilos of 60-per-cent-enriched uranium, lying buried under damaged nuclear plants, has to be uncovered and sent out of Iran. If not, it will remain a permanent worry for the White House and for the Middle East, and for all of us. So, what can Trump do in the next six months to save Congress from being handed to the Democrats in November? Restart widescale bombing of military targets might look good but what will it actually achieve? Giving in to Iran's Strait of Hormuz blackmail would be a political disaster. So there is only one option for Trump. He must tell Tehran that he plans to redouble the blockade of all Iranian ports for an indefinite period unless Iran stops interfering in the Strait of Hormuz. And as an added warning, Trump should tell Tehran that if it fails to back away from the strait, he will order the Pentagon to bomb every nuclear site for a period of two weeks until they are totally destroyed. Then see what the mullahs do!

Iran tries to make control of the Strait of Hormuz official

Iran is getting more confident about taking over the Strait of Hormuz. It has formed a special authority to be in charge of the key part of the chokepoint in order to dictate who can go through and who can't and to charge a fee. It's outrageous but the regime in Tehran has geography on its side and it's going to be a huge challenge for Donald Trump and the whole shipping world. What in practical terms can Trump do to prevent Iran absorbing the strait under its control? It doesn't seem to matter how many aircraft carriers the US Navy sends to the Gulf or how many guided-missile destroyers. The fact is, the Iranians are sitting pretty on their land overlooking the strait and they have most of the cards in their hands. Unless, of course, Trump authorises a massive military operation to seize a chunk of Iranian coastline and put troops everywhere to make sure ships get through without being interfered with or charged. Just bombing everything won't make a difference. It has to be troops on the ground. But Iran knows for sure Trump doesn't want to do that. So before the US/Israeli strikes began on February 28, tankers and other vessels were passing through the strait without any interference from Iran. Now it has totally changed. So the war has made things worse, not better. As for the nuclear issues, that is still in limbo. So, where are we, nearly twelve weeks into the war? We've gone backwards, everything is worse than it was before February 28.Someone very clever has to sort this out once and for all. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER. WATERSTONES, ROWANVALE BOOKS, AMAZON.

UK government hits a storm over lifting of Russian oil ban

It couldn't have come at a worse time. The Labour government in UK has eased the ban on Russian oil imports because of the crisis over supply. It's not crude oil but refined oil for jet fuel and diesel and it's refined in India and Turkey. But it's still Russian oil. So, great news for Putin and his war effort in Ukraine and bad news for the UK which is supposed to be one of the leading nations helping Ukraine to fight off the Russians. It's also bad timing because in a few weeks there is to be a by-election up in Makerfield when Labour leader contender Andy Burnham hopes to become an MP and stand against Keir Starmer. The Labour government decision to buy Russian oil will play badly for Burnham. Perhaps that's why Starmer made the announcement! The Conservatives and Reform party will focus on this decision at the by-election and, who knows, Burnham might well lose. The reality is that every country is now faced with having to make huge decisions about energy supplies because of the war in Iran. The Strait of Hormuz is closed, so none of the refined oil coming out of the Gulf states which the UK previously relied on, is getting through which is why Labour has had to turn to India and Turkey for jet fuel and diesel. But it started off as Russian oil. So it looks really really bad. The US did the same but not for themselves. Washington just said Russian fuel that was already on its way to be refined for countries that desperately needed it could go ahead. All in all, the war in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has played into Putin's hands very nicely. This guy really does get away with everything. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER. YOU WILL LOVE IT. AMAZON, WATERSTONES, ROWANVALE BOOKS.

Putin is losing the war in Ukraine

I never thought I would say it but Putin has effectively lost the war in Ukraine. He may still occupy 20 per cent of the territory but his troops haven't gained an inch in extra land in the Donbas region for months, and the Ukrainian military's amazing development of counter-drone interceptors, costing a mere $1,000 each, has transformed the battlefield, making it almost impossible for the Russians to carry out successful drone raids. Ukraine, on the other hand, has launched hundreds of long-range drones into Russia, getting as far as the outskirts of Moscow and have hit oil terminals, airbases and power plants. The war is now as much in Russia as it is in Ukraine. This is a staggering achievement by Ukraine, backed now by Europe instead of the US. Everything has gone wrong for Putin. The Russian people are at last waking up to the realisation that their leader is waging a war that is destroying their stability, wrecking the economy and killing hundreds of thousands of their menfolk. The Ukraine fight back has gone through various stages. There was a moment two years ago when it looked as if Russia would grab much more territory and Ukraine would be begging for mercy. But that didn't last long. Ukraine kept going and now the Russian troops must be disillusioned, terrified and desperate to go home. The Ukrainian warfighting industry is the best in the world, everyone wants to learn from them. Sometime this year, Putin will sue for peace, I predict.

Bomb (sorry clock) is ticking for Iran

Donald Trump is preparing to bomb Iran again. He said the clock is ticking but he meant the bomb is ticking, and he has added the extra titbit that if Tehran doesn't sign a peace deal, the US will effectively destroy Iran, by which I assume he means he will annihilate the country's energy infrastructure. I very much doubt he will go ahead and do this. The world would accuse him of an international war crime if he deliberately targets and destroys every power station and oil terminal and gas field. And that wouldn't solve the world's oil crisis anyway and it wouldn't open up the Strait of Hormuz because facing ruin and disaster, the hardline rulers of Iran will fight back and keep the strait shut for ever. Trump's best option is to do everything he and the military can to force open the strait and forget about bombing Iran's energy plants. But that will mean troops on the ground. If Tehran refuses to play ball, then it may be the only thing left for Trump to do. Boots on the ground and the casaulties that will inevitably follow would, however, make Trump's popularity rating, already historically low, take a deep dive, and the mid-term elections in November will end the Republicans' chances of retaining control of the Senate and House of Representatives. It's tricky being prsident of the United States.

The UK in political shambles

This poor country has had so many political upheavals in recent years it is hardly surprising everything seems so depressing and down-at-heel and pessimistic and dreary. All political leaders promise to change things and make everyone happy but invariably fail. In fact most of the time they achieve the opposite. This is the case with the government of Keir Starmer. All the promises have fallen by the wayside. Growth in the economy is minimal, everyone is over-taxed, borrowing by the gobernment is sky-high which means having to pay billions of pounds in interest - what a waste - young people can't get jobs and can't afford housing, and millions upon millions of people are living off benefits. It's a dire situation. Amidst all of this bad news, the Labour government which won a huge majority at the last election is disintegrating. Keir Starmer is surviving as prime minister by his fingertips and probably for not much longer, and eager contenders for the top job are queuing up and stabbing everyone in the back in the process. Everyone seems to think that Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester, will be the great Labour hope, provided he wins a by-election to become an MP again. But what has he really done in his political career so far to give us voters any sense of excitement that he will be The One. The same for the other contenders, Wes Streeting who speaks like a robot, Ed Milliband, who led the Labour party in opposition and was ineffectual, and Angela Rayner, a character no qiestion but a political liability, backed by the unions which means some pretty daft socialist ideas in her head. So whoever steals the premiership from Starmer is going to have to start all over again and instil some sense and intelligence and bravery into the whole political system. Will any of these candidates for Number 10 have a real clue how to go about it? WHAT YOU NEED IS SOME ENTERTAINMENT. SO BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY SPY THRILLER. AMAZON, WATERSTONES, ROWANVALE BOOKS.

Trump tells Taiwan not to go for self-determination

There have been two comments from Donald Trump since he left Beijing which will alarm Taiwan. First he gave no promise that he would authorise the $14 billion in arms package which Congress has presented to the White House, and, second, he warned Taiwan not to go for self-determination. Well, first of all, the US has been supplying arms to Taiwan for ever to help them defend against a possible attack from China, and it would be an extraordinary move if he stopped the weapons sales, although it would be greeted with hurrays by Beijing if he did. Second of all, Taiwan already sees itself as an independent country, separated both geographically and politically from what is always called mainland China. It has a flourishing economy and is the world's largest producer of micro-chips. Taiwan does not want to become another Hong Kong, independent to a degree but still governed and controlled by Beijing. But of course Hong Kong was in a different situation. It was a British colony with a leae that ran out in the 1990s and Britain had no choice but to hand it back to China. Taiwan, formerly known as Formosa, became a republic when it broke away from Beijing after the Chinese civil war in 1949. So, there is no expiring lease as with Hong Kong. But for Trump to tell Taiwan that it should not go for self-determination is a bit rich when the Taiwanese consider themselves to be a totally separate and self-governing republic. These words will have pleased Beijing no end. Trump also said he didn't want to have to travel 9,500 miles to fight a war with China. What does that tell Taiwan, and what does it tell Beijing? PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER. AMAZON, WATERSTONES, ROWANVALE BOOKS.