Everyone has underestimated the Houthis

When they started becoming a nuisance way back, the Houthi rebels as they were then called were a pain in the neck, like a cloud of mosquitos buzzing away in the wrong places. Now, they are a force to be reckoned with and are always known just by the name, Houthis. The world knows who the Houthis are because they pop up whenever they want and cause trouble. Today, they are playing a leading role in forcing oil prices up beyond $100 a barrel. They have taken control of the whole coastline of Yemen, effectively putting them in charge of the Bab al-Mandab Strait, another one of those wretched maritime choke points through which Saudi Arabia, in particular, transits its crude oil to Asia. The Houthis are saying that after their lightning military advance to grab the Red Sea coastline and key coastal towns,such as Mokha, as well as an island in the middle of the strait called Perim Island, they can dictate which tankers can transit and which can't. So far they have said their focus is to stop all Saudi tankers going through the strait. How the Houthis have managed to build themselves into such a major strike force is hard to comprehend. Of course they have had help from Iran but the Houthis are also a fiercely independent organisation and they clearly have effective leadership. Literally, no one, not the United States, not Saudi Arabia, not the Gulf states, know what to do about the Houthis. They are running rampant and getting away with it.

AI is beginning to sound truly scary

Progress in developing artificial intelligence (AI) systems has reached a level where experts are warning AI could destroy the human race within ten years. Most people would have seen that prediction and laughed because it seems more fantasy than reality. However, the warning came from someone in the AI industry who can see how the rapid developments could be turned against us if the new super AI systems end up in the wrong hands. The apocalyptic warning suggested that evil people might use AI to produce biological weapons which could wipe out the human race. It’s bad enough that the world is facing dramatic climate change, producing dangerous heatwaves in many countries, widespread fires and flooding from glaciers melting. There is no easy way for the world to combat these growing threats but a consensus for action among all politicians in the United States and among US allies would go at least some of the way towards finding solutions. Unfortunately, there are so many other threats and dangers, such as the war between the US and Iran, the war between Russia and Ukraine and the negative effects they are having on the world economy that the dramatic warning of AI’s capacity to ruin all our lives has not really had the impact on public opinion it deserves. When AI was first developed the focus initially was on the good it would do for humanity, particularly in medical research. But now, because the big players in developing AI, such as Anthropic, OpenAI, Nvidia, Microsoft and Google, have made such rapid advances it seems it is almost too late to stop the technological momentum. Every government in the western world now has AI experts as part of its administration. But do they have sufficient influence to bring some common sense into this new technological era? The trouble is, potential adversaries of the United States are pursuing the same dream of producing AI-controlled weapons that will, like the armed drone today, transform conflicts of the future, with robots replacing humans. China, a big-power rival of the United States, has recently demonstrated its success in producing robots that can run faster than any human being. The omens for persuading the world to step back from developing advanced super-intelligent AI systems that will replace humans – advocated last week by Senator Bernie Sanders - are not good. The world has failed to take adequate measures to stop global warming. Whatever steps are taken in the future will only help to reduce the impact of climate change on our lives, they won’t be able to stop the damage already done. It could be the same with AI. Unless measures are taken to forge an international agreement on limiting the potential threat of AI, the momentum will just carry one. Then, the warning of a threat to the human race might just be facing us all in the next decade or so.

Iran is literally asking for trouble

For reasons that only the generals of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps can explain, Iran has taken it into its head to start firing ballistic missiles at US warships. In response, US Central Command, ready round-the-clock for retaliatory strikes, struck back at five Iranian oil tankers, putting them out of action. This may make Iran think again but somehow I doubt it. If the IRGC generals could actually hit a US warship and cause damage and casualties that would be a big feather in their cap and give them motivation to try again. Every missile fired at an American ship has been brought down, and it goes without saying that if the IRGC did manage to get a missile through the defences, that would be a huge blow to the US military. Donald Trump would demand huge revenge. Trump has said this is not a war at the moment. But any damage to a US warship and the gloves would be off. The IRGC generals know this but they seem to believe that it's still worth having a go. Trump has said the confrontation is likely to continue until after the American midterm elections on November 3. In other words, these strikes and counter-strikes are going to continue until then, with Iran hoping that the midterm elections will go badly for the Republicans, and therefore badly for Trump. Sounds like a war to me.

Violence by Israeli settlers against Palestinian communities is appalling

Ed Milliband, the foreign secretary, has been condemned by Israel for accusing Jewish settlers of ethnic cleansing in their attempt to drive out Palestinian communities from their homes on the West Bank. The only experience I have had of witnessing ethnic cleansing was during the war in Bosnia when all three ethnic communities, the Serbs, Croats and Bosnian Muslims committed atrocities in efforts to expel ethnic groupings not matched with theirs. It was frightening, brutal and criminal, and up to 100,000 people were murdered, at least 65 per cent of them Muslims, and tens of thousands of women and girls were raped, again, mostly Muslims, over a period of three years from 1992 to 1995. This was ethnic cleansing on a vast scale, although not by comparison with the atrocities caused by the Nazis in the Second World War. What we have on the West Bank is an attempt by far right Jewish settlers to brutalise the local Palestinians out of their homes to make way for more settlements and to extend the territory of Israel itself. For the Palestinians driven from their homes and olive groves, it must seem like ethnic cleasing. Nevertheless, one should always be cautious about using phrases which have such terrifyingly apocalyptic historical connotations. Comparing the excessive violence shown by the Jewish settlers to the ethnic cleansing in Bosnia and, more significantly, to Nazi Germany, is, therefore, unwise, inaccurate and dangerous. That does not undermine the argument, however, that what is going on in the West Bank every day is wrong and hateful and should be condemned by everyone, including and especially by the Israeli government.

Trump's envoys thank Putin for wonderful memories

Clearly Putin laid out the red carpet for his two American visitors. So enthused were Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner that they told the wqorld they left Moscow with wonderful memories. Presumably they were talking about the exceptional food and drink, the plushness of their hotel bedrooms and the charming people they spoke to during their 24-hour visit. Never mind whether they actually achieved any breakthrough over ending the war in Ukraine - no sign of that. In fact, it seemed the only message they came away with was Putin's pronouncement that Russia was winning the war and wanted to finish it off. Putin's analysis of the war doesn't really bear any serious scrutiny. The ground element of the war has been in a stalemate for as long as one can remember. The drones and missiles keep flying, but Ukraine has caused so much damage to targets, especially Russia's navy, inside Russia, that most observers would say Kyiv has achieved more than Moscow and has more leverage than Putin has to persuade Witkoff and Kushner that actually Ukraine is winning the war. The Ukrainian military certainly hasn't lost it. But perhaps during his three or four hour chat with the two US envoys, Putin showed them a map of Ukraine to prove his claim that the Russians are marching on to victory. Neither envoy has a military background but they will have been briefed before they flew to Moscow that the amount of territory seized by Russia in the last year has amounted to a few dozen square kilometres. Nothing to write home about. Still, Witkoff and Kushner had a wonderful time in Moscow. Perhaps they will also have a wonderful memory of their visit to Kyiv today.

Putin orders weekend ceasefire

Putin has made a smart move by announcing a ceasefire while Trump's two envoys are around to talk about ending the war in Ukraine. Obviously it makes practical sense because the two message-carriers, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, are due in Kyiv tomorrow and it would be bit of a slap in Trump's face if missiles started landing in the Ukrainian capital while they are chatting to Zelensky. On the other hand, Putin could have ordered a missile strike elsewhere in Ukraine to remind Washington that he can do that whenever he likes. However, he chose the sensible option because he wants to demonstrate that he is in control and if he orders a ceasefire then the Russian military get a couple of days off. Zelensky would be wise to stop attacks on Russia for the weekend, so everyone gets a breather, and Witkoff and Kushner can gop about their business without having to pop into a bunker every half an hour. If these latest talks fail to deliver anything, then I think all bets are off and the war will rage on through the coming winter and another year will go by.

Trump's envoys off to Moscow

Whenever Donald Trump's two travelling envoys, Steve Whitkoff and Jared Kushner, go off to see Putin there is a sudden revival of optimism that perhaps this time the Russian president really will want to talk peace and not carry on destroying Ukraine. But can there really be an hope that the visit planned for tomorrow will make any difference? Putin says he likes having these two around. But that may mean he doesn't mind their vists because he is so good at winding them round his finger, as it were. He knows what he wants and he knows that the two envoys know what he wants. So there is little room for manouevre. Putin will talk about territory. He'll say he wants the whole of the Donbas region before he will negotiate seriously, and the two envoys will come away from Moscow with this meassage and pass it on to Zelensky who they are going to see on Sunday. But Zelensky has heard this message a million times. So it will make no difference. Swings and roundabouts.