A deal with Iran in two or three days, says Trump

Claims about the war in Iran coming to an eed at any moment have been made so many times that it is difficult to take any predictions from the White House seriously. But the fact is that while the US naval blockade of all Iranian ports continues, Iran and its poor people are being bled dry. No oil exports, no trade, nothing coming in except humanitarian shipments. At some point there is going to ba another total breakdown of society in Iran and the streets will be filled with thousands of people protesting. This is what Trump is probably counting on, so that even though there are still breaches of the ceasefire, the rulers of Iran do actually want the war to end so that the country can benefit from at least partial lifting of international sanctions. If there really is a deal waiting in the wings will it be the victory for the US that Trump has been boasting about for so long? In his latest remarks, Trump said that the deal would be sigbed in two or three days and as soon as the signatures are on the agreement, the Strait of Hormuz will open. As for the nuclear issue, Trump is saying he has got it in the bag, ie Iran will pledge not to build a nuclear bomb. But Iran has said this before, so only if the Tehran regime starts to dismantle what's left of its uranium-enrichment programme and hands over the 440 kilos of 60-per-cent-enriched material will anyone believe that the nukes question is finally resolved. If Trump's latest pledge about an end to the war falls apart, like all his previous promises, then the missiles could start flying all over again. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER. AMAZON, WATERSTONES, ROWANVALE BOOKS.

Israel and Iran back to war

Donald Trump has told Israel to stop bombing Iran but Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, has ignored him. This tells a lot. Trump has said he is in charge and if he tells Netanyahu what to do or not to, he obeys. This simply isn't true. The ceasafire is now so shakey it's as good as dead and buried. Iran fired a barrage of missiles at Israel, supposedly in return for Israel's continued launching of attacks against Hezbollah in Lebanon. Trump told Netanyahu not to retaliate. But how could he expect Israel not to fire back when Iranian missiles have come hurtling towards them? Of course Israel retaliated, just as Trump has retaliated against Iran when the mullahs have fired missiles and drones at US military forces in the Middle East. Tit-for-tat is an accpeted form of warfare. So, the ceasefire, already a misnomer after masses of breaches since it was announced in April, is over for now. Meanwhile, how will the resurgence of missile attacks affect the negotiations to end the war? Basically, there is never going to be a deal unless there is a comprehensive settlement which involves the US, Iran, Israel, Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis in Yemen. And that sort of agreement, ie no more attacks from any quarter, looks as far away as it has ever been. Even if there is a sort of deal between the US and Iran, there will still be plenty of scope for war if none of the other parties are signed up.

A sense of drift in Washington

Most images of Donald Trump on social media and in the newspapers these days show him with his eyes closed as yet another interminable meeting takes place in the Oval Office. He will be 80 this year and it looks like he's getting tired, especially since so many things are going wrong for him. There is a real sense of drift at the moment because there is still no breakthrough in the war with Iran. We don't know what's going on behind the scenes, but Tehran and its injury-recovered supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, seem to be putiing their foot down and insisting on having all Iran's frozen assets released, totalling around $24 billion, before any deal is discussed about limiting their nuclear programme and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Does Trump fall asleep when the subject of Iran crops up in conversation? Trump has to be careful. If pictures keep on being published of him nodding off in the Oval Office, comparisons will increasaingly be made with his predecessor, Joe Biden, who invariably closed his eyes during the latter part of his term in office. Trump would not like to be compared with "poor old Joe".

JD Vance has a thing about Britain

The vice president of the United States doesn't have much of a role to play and it must be pretty frustrating which is why perhaps the current holder, JD Vance, spends so much time haranguing Britain over one thing or another. In his latest verbal outburst, he has blamed the appalling murder of the young Henry Nowak by a Sikh called Vickrum Digwa on mass immigration into the UK. If he believes that, ok, but keep his views to himself. What makes him think we are interested in what the US vice president believes, especially when it is simplistic nonsense. He has done this bfore, as has, of course, Elon Musk, who loves to take the side of the Reform leader Nigel Farage in rebuking Britain and the British government for its immigration policies. The more one hears the views of JD Vance, the more unlikely, it seems to me, that he will be a suitable candidate to succeed Donald Trump in 2028. In fact, if things continue to go badly for the Trump administration it is far more likely that the winner of the 2028 presidential election will be a Democrat. The Democratic party just has to get its act together and find a candidate who will wow America and the rest of the world. He or she hasn't emerged yet. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER. AMAZON, WATERSTONES, ROWANVALE BOOKS.

Putin sitting down to talk with Zelensky? Can't see it

In Vladimir Putin's eyes, his bete noir, Volodymyr Zelensky, has been a dead man ever since he failed to be toppled and then fought back against his invasion troops. But now Zelensky has written an open letter inviting Putin to hold face-to-face talks to find a settlement. Zelensky must have known that he would be rebuffed. Putin is not remotely in the frame of mind to talk real peace with anyone and certainly not at the same table with his arch opponent from Kyiv. It would play very badly back home unless of course Zelensky had given the impression beforehand that he was ready to do a deal that would deliver more Ukrainian land into Putin's hands. And he's not going to do that. So the Zelensky letter was fairly pointless except that it forced Putin to respond. Even then, I can't envisage Putin agreeing to be in the same room as Zelensky, let alone sit across from him at a table. This is why it's going to be so difficult for anyone else, whether Trump's special envoys or some selected European chief negotiator, to persuade Putin to make some concessions. He doesn't want a compromise deal, he wants to crush Ukraine, and in particular, its leader.

Ceasefires? What ceasefires?

The wordd 'ceasefire' has a certain connotation. It means, simply, that two warring sides agree to stop fighting and shooting and bombing and all goes quiet. It's a huge relief to the poor people whose lives have been ruined by warfare, and it's a big boost for the negotiators attempting to bring wars to an end. But not today. There is a ceasefire between the US and Iran but almost daily there are tit-for-tat strikes. Even worse ceasefire violations are going on in Lebanon and Gaza. Hezbollah continues to fire rockets into Israel and the Israeli Defence Forces retaliate with airstrikes, In Gaza, Hamas is active as ever and the IDF launches attacks on a pretty comprehensive fashion. People die. Donald Trump has been making light of the ceasefire breaches but the fact is, for the people, the civilians, in all three countries, and in the Gulf nations being targeted by Iran, life remains hellish. The word 'ceasefire' is meaningless for them. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER. AMAZON, ROWANVALE BOOKS, WATERSTONES.

Will Donald Trump really meet with Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei?

Donald Trump, in his usual way, has thrown into the air an idea that he might meet up with Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, the Iranian supreme leader to discuss and sign an agreement. Could this ever happen? It's difficult to imagine the two men meeting and shaking hands. Not after the destruction US bombs and missiles have done to Iran, not after the bombing of Iran's three main nuclear sites, and particularly not after Mojtaba Khamenei was grievously wounded when bombs killed his father, the then suprme leader, on day one of the US/Israeli attacks on Iran that began on February 28. However, if Trump has put forward the idea, I guess it's just possible the matter has been raised but I would have thought it was wishful thinking that the supreme leader would agree to sit down with the US president. And where would such a meeting take place? Not in Washington, that's for sure. And not in Tehran. It would have to be somewhere like Qatar or possibly Pakistan. But first of all, we have to have an agreement, and that seems far away at the moment, with bombs and drones falling most days. The Strait of Hormuz is not totally static, a few ships have been going through on the Omani side of the chokepoint with US warships coordinating their safe passage. But we are only talking about a dozen or so. All the rest are still stuck out in the Gulf of Oman or Gulf or Arabia. The crews must be sick to death of their situation. If there is going to be a deal to sign and a meeting between Trump and Khamenei, the sooner the better.