Will Trump be impeached if Democrats win the House?

I think it's almost inevitable that if the Democrats win the House of Representatives in the midterm elections in November, Donald Trump will be facing impeachment. There is already a lot of chit-chat about it in Washington. That doesn't mean Trumnp will be ousted because the Senate is likely to remain in Republican majority hands and will overrule all attempts to get rid of the president. We've been here before. But it does mean that the Democrats will give Trump a really hard time, and there will be headlines which even he won't be able to claim are fake news. With impeachment procedures underway, in the event of a Democratic win in November, it will also electrify the atmosphere in Washington. Trump will be under constant media pressure, even more than he is at the moment. On the other hand, if the Democrats go around telling everyone they are going to try and impeach the president if they win the House, then it might just dissuade some doubting voters amongst Republicans to stick with Trump after all. No one really enjoys impeachment proceedings. They disrupt normal life and make the US look bad in the eyes of the rest of the world. It will also make Trump steeming mad and he would try and take revenge somehow on leading Democrats pushing for his downfall. If the Democrats fail to win the House, it might just be because too many of them have been talking too much about impeaching Trump rather than offering new legislation to help people cope with the rising cost of living.

A plague on all these dangerous virus laboratories

How unsurprising that now it's Russia which has let loose a potentially mass-killing virus to alarm the world yet again. First, it was a lab in Wuhan in China which appears to have released, in error, the Covid-19 virus in 2019 which spread around the world, killing millions of people, ruining countless lives and giving millions of others life-changing illnesses. China has always denied it was the Wuhan laboratory which leaked Covid but everyone else believes otherwise. Now Russia is trying to deny any problem after a woman died after inhaling pneumonic plague which poured out of a glass test tube she dropped on a laboratory floor in Siberia. Are we about to face another pandemic with everyone wearing masks? It's deja vue all over again! The US which has offered to help Russia, is trying to calm things by saying there is no evidence yet pf mass spreading of the virus, and as Marco Rubio, the US secretary of state, said, there are very few flights between Russia and the US or to Europe for that matter. But here's a thing. The worst scenario would be if the plague virus spreads in Russia, Russian troops serving in Ukraine get it and spread it, and then Europeans and Americans who constantly go in and out of Ukraine helping the Kyiv government, get infected and when they return home they apread it, and so on. This is alarmist. But this is what happened with Covid, when tens of thousands of Chinese, including from Wuhan, visited friends and relations in Europe to celebrate the Chinese New Year, and Covid-19 took hold everywhere. With the Covid pandemic in mind, let us hope the Russian authorities are sufficiently astute to clamp everything down and stop the plague from spreading anywhere. The omens are not good.

Mystery deepens as Trump orders all bombers home from UK base

The sudden departure of all 12 of the US Air Force's B1-B bombers based at RAF Fairford in Gloucestershire is the latest development in one of the most bizarre mysteries of recent times. While the police are still investigating six men, one Iranian-born, allegedly connected to a bomb plot against RAF Fairford, the US has taken fright and ordered every bomber to fly home. Can there really be intelligence that Iran was planning to hit the base and destroy the bombers? What with? Drones? It all seems far-fetched but there has to be something the spooks have uncovered to make the US act in such an extraordinary way. RAF Fairford is already heavily guarded and protected. It's a pretty humiliating admission if the US military and British police cannot keep this base safe from terrorists. No one is telling us what this is about, so it has given rise to mass speculation. The arrested "plotters" were all bailed. So were they just doing a dry run? The exit of the 12 bombers, all of which had previously been used to launch strikes on targets in Iran - so much cheaper and quicker than having to fly all the way from bases in the US - suggests that a real terrorist attack was imminent. I can understand the US wanting to make sure none of the B1s are damaged in any way but flying them all off back to America seems extreme to say the least. It doesn't say much for America's confidence in the British authorities to keep these vital warmaking assets safe.

How can the Iranian economy survive?

Even the top security official in Iran has now admitted that times are tough. The continuing US naval blockade which stops all oil exports, and the heavy sanctions are taking their toll on the Iranian economy. Life for the Iranian people is really bad. The New York Times reports that many people in important jobs like nursing and teaching are giving up because they earn so little or are not paid at all. I assume they mean they are taking more menial jobs which pay netter. But how long can Iran carry on without imploding? This is what Donald Trump is counting on. He wants Iran to die economically, so he can then dictate the terms of surrender.So far, the regime in Tehran has hung on, hoping that the midterm elections in the US will be so bad for Trump and the Republican party that it will give Iran leverage to dictate their own terms for a settlement. The reality is that the "war" - for xhe moment without actual bombing - will just grind on with neither side winning or losing. But if the economy in Iran is really that bad, then there may come a time when the whole population cries out and street protests return. Would the regime dare to kill the protesters again like they did before the US launched its war? I fear for the poor Iranian people.

Sacked Royal Navy chief loses his knighthood. Oh come on!

I can't write Admiral Sir Ben Key anymore because the former head of the Royal Navy who was sacked last year for having an affair with a subordinate, has had his knighthood removed. Plus his CBE and all his medals. Are we really in the 21st century? By all accounts the former admiral served as the First Sea Lord with distinction, vision and commitment. He was also liked and was fair. But he had an affair with a woman of lesser rank - well, obviously every woman in the Royal Navy is of lesser rank because he was the top admiral - and he gets punished not once but three times. Loss of job, loss of medals and honours, loss of knighthood. This seems to me to be cruel and way over the top, especially when you see other public figures who have not served the nation with distinction retaining their knighthoods. I will name no names. Of course, the armed services have rigid conduct standards, and this is right and proper, but not only have the powers-that-be kicked Mr Key out of the Navy, they have then kicked him again and again, removing all the honours and medals which for very good reasons were awarded to reflect his achievements in the service of his country. Had he shoplifted or robbed a bank, the removal of his knighthood would be seen as fully justified. In his case, he made a personal mistake. The treatment he has received has been brutal, although a little mercy was shown because he has been allowed to keep his pension.

Incredible bravery displayed on the Tel Aviv-bound plane

If the Indian pilot, wounded and losing consciousness, had not managed to flip the key to open the cockpit door to the passenger plane hurtling towards the ground, the story would have been very different. This amazing guy must have been in pain and was bleeding profusely, yet he knew he had to get that door open. Under strict rules, all cockpit doors on every commercial airliner have to be locked to prevent any passenger with murder intent or terrorism or suicide in mind from gaining entry and attacking the pilot and co-pilot. But, in this case, the door had to be unlocked to stop a total disaster. The Indian pilot is, without question, a hero, and the passengers who overwhelmed the co-pilot who had attacked his colleague are also heroes, brave beyond comprehension. It is yet another example of the extraordinary courage that lies dormant in human beings which blasts out when required to resolve a crisis of unprecedented proportions. Nothing can be worse than being stuck in a plane which is hurtling to the ground while the pilots are incapacitated. Also it nwas amazing that there were two other pilots on board who were due to take the plane back after it had landed in Tel Aviv. So they stepped forward and took over the controls. It was truly a miracle for everyone on board. Such a change from all the misery around the world.

American troops leave Iraq for good

The last American soldiers from a two-decade military commitment in Iraq have finally withdrawn from the sole-remaining base at Erbil in the north of the country. About 100 British troops have also been withdrawn, unable to stay without US logistical and intelligence back-up. Unlike the chaotic evacuation of thousands of US troops and petrified Afghans from Afghanistan in 2021, this was a quiet, unopposed withdrawal of a few hundred American soldiers. So ends the presence of US forces in Iraq, perceived by the Baghdad government as a sign of increasing confidence in its ability to keep the country’s enemies at bay. However, since the decision was taken by President Joe Biden in September 2024 to remove all US troops from Iraq by September 30 this year, the Middle East dynamics have changed dramatically. The US is at war with Iran, Iranian proxy militias are ever-present in Iraq, plotting attacks on American forces in the region, and the influence of Tehran on the Baghdad government has grown exponentially. The underlying threats and the continuing responsibility of the US to monitor the region and act militarily if required were highlighted by Admiral Brad Cooper, commander of US Central Command who oversaw the troop-withdrawal from Erbil. “As we step back and hand full primary responsibility for Iraq’s security to the government of Iraq and the brave people of Iraq, the US and coalition forces stationed across the region will remain ready to respond to any Isis [Islamic State] threats that arise,” he said. Operation Inherent Resolve, codename for the US-led coalition mission against Isis in Iraq and Syria, formed when the terrorist group seized huge swathes of territory in both countries and declared an Islamic caliphate, will remain in being. However, from now on, the counter-Isis mission will be headquartered in Jordan. Many of the 1,500 American and coalition forces based at Erbil, capital of Kurdistan in northern Iraq, will transfer to Jordan. The RAF will continue to fly over Syria to combat the remnants of Isis but it is unclear whether they have permission to fly over Iraq. America’s military involvement in Iraq is a tale of many woes which have been exhaustively chronicled since the decision by President George W Bush to invade the country in 2003 to topple its leader, Saddam Hussein, and remove the Iraqi dictator’s suspected hidden weapons of mass destruction. Intelligence failed then, and failed again when, after Bush had declared “Mission Accomplished” on May 1, 2003, an al-Qaeda-led insurgency erupted across Iraq, leading to the birth of the Islamic State, forcing the US to stay put and face an enemy bent on murderous revenge against the western occupiers. America’s military commitment in Iraq effectively lasted 23 years, from 2003 to 2026, although there was a period, from 2011 to 2014, where none were present. Baghdad appealed to the US and coalition partners, including Britain, in 2014 to redeploy troops to help destroy Isis, although in an advise-and-assist capacity. The lessons from those two decades have been sobering for the US military. Political mistakes made in Washington and by Bush’s envoy, Paul Bremer, sent to Baghdad to administrate the post-Saddam era, quadrupled the challenges they faced. The US-led coalition had to counter the growing intensity and violence of the insurgents who, like the Taliban in Afghanistan, and Iran today, learnt how to adapt warfare techniques to confront a superpower army. Specifically, the insurgents who evolved into Isis used improvised explosive devices (IEDs), and cheap, off-the-shelf commercial drones with grenades attached to kill and maim. The biggest political mistake which complicated the job of the thousands of American troops during this period was the decision by the Bush administration to launch a nation-building programme to turn Iraq into a democracy-loving ally while at the same time getting rid of the country’s army and civil service, sent home for being Baathist loyalists to Saddam. It left a vacuum which was exploited by the insurgents whose numbers were multiplied by disillusioned Baathists who joined up. The impact for the US-led coalition and for the Iraqi people was devastating. Nearly 4,600 American troops were killed between 2003 and 2026. It has been estimated that between 187,000 and 211,000 Iraqi civilians died from violent action during the same period. US Central Command is now on overwatch from Jordan, as well as at other forward-operating bases spread throughout the Middle East. But will the absence of American troops in Iraq, albeit in relatively limited numbers, pose greater risks for the region as a whole? Could Isis revive? Will Iran benefit? The lesson from Afghanistan, where no residual US force was left as an insurance policy, cannot be ignored. Jasim al-Bahadli, an Iraqi security analyst, told Reuters: “Iran stands to benefit strategically from the coalition departure because it removes a military presence that for years acted as a counter-weight to Tehran’s influence in Iraq.” He also warned that Iran’s militant proxies in Iraq would seek to gain more influence over Baghdad’s security and political decision-making.