Never take our eyes off North Korea

It is one of the most extraordinary things about this world that every so often there is another war and we all think the third world war is about to arrive. So the Russian war against Ukraine and the US/Israel war against Iran have consumed every newspaper, radio and TV station. Death and destruction and lives ruined, people made homeless, despair and desperation and poverty. But all this time, North Korea just carries on developing more and better long-range ballistic missiles, more and more nuclear warheads, more and more long-range artillery systems, cruise missiles and every other type of missile you can imagine. Does anyone do anything about it? No, because it is now what we expect North Korea and its scary leader Kim Jong-un to do. He is building a mighty fortress around his country and you hardly hear a whisper from Washington. Donald Trump has suggested he might have another go at meeting up with his "friend", Kim, but Kim can't be bothered to meet him. All he wants to do is dress up in his fancy leather coat that goes down to his ankles and watch as the latest ballistic and cruise missiles get fired off and then everyone around him claps and fawns over their leader. It's a total anathema, it's a blotch on the planet but it's there and will remain there and the world just gets on with other crises. North Korea is probably one of the gravest threats to world peace but Kim is left alone to get on with it.

The price of peace with Iran

A US/Iran “peace” deal on paper might bring the war to an end but what will it mean for the future of the Middle East, America’s standing in the region and the security of Israel? Even as President Trump’s negotiators and special mediators (Pakistan’s army chief and prime minister), were trying to finalise the wording of the memorandum of understanding laying down the principles of a peace settlement, the idea of a grand-design strategy was already under discussion. A contained or, better still, conciliatory regime in Tehran could make the difference between a future of constant warfare and a region blessed with prosperity and improving relations. At this stage, after a bitter war which has brought death and destruction to more than half a dozen countries in the Gulf region, it might seem overly optimistic to imagine that a tentative deal between Washington and Tehran might lead to a period of genuine stability, even possibly an element of trust between longstanding enemies. It looks out of the question at present with so much rivalry and hatred and enduring ideological differences. However, the Trump administration is intent on expanding the Abraham Accords, the deal that saw the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain sign an agreement to normalise diplomatic relations with Israel ion September 15, 2020, during Trump’s first term. With Israel’s military attacks against Hamas in Gaza and against Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Tel Aviv government's refusal to countenance an independent Palestinian state, any further moves to bring countries such as Saudi Arabia into the Abraham Accords family had to be abandoned. The US/Israel war on Iran, even though supported by Gulf allies fearful of Tehran’s nuclear ambitions, further postponed discussions with Washington over its grand-design concept for the Middle East. First, however, depending on the effectiveness and viability of a peace deal with Iran, the US will need to make key military decisions about its presence in the region over the next few years. It has become an axiom in western diplomatic circles that Iran can never be trusted to act in good faith. As a consequence, the US will have to retain a permanent aircraft carrier strike group in the region and preserve the 50,000 troop levels currently spread out in a number of Gulf nations. For the foreseeable future, while the negotiations continue to find a satisfactory nuclear deal with Tehran, it will be imperative to have all the military assets at a high state of readiness to impress on Tehran the need to reach a long-term agreement on the country’s uranium-enrichment programme. There are currently around 4,400 marines stationed on amphibious assault ships in the Gulf, about 3,000 combat soldiers from 82nd Airborne Division and hundreds of special operations troops, awaiting orders from Trump for action in Iran. They can’t stay there for ever but will have to remain during the proposed 30-day ceasefire extension. However, the US view on what military assets must stay in the region to deter Iran will conflict with the stance adopted by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC). “Iran appears to believe that it is negotiating from a stronger position than the United States and is accordingly attempting to remake the regional order in a way that benefits Iran,” said the Institute for the Study of War in Washington. This suggests that whatever agreement is signed about reopening the Strait of Hormuz, the long-term plan of Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, may be to retain some form of strategic control over the strait. For the purposes of the peace deal with Washington, however, Iran will no doubt initially play ball and reopen the waterway without imposing tolls on shipping, in return for the US lifting its naval blockade of all Iranian ports. The blockade which has involved two dozen US warships and about 150 aircraft, has been remarkably successful: more than 100 commercial ships have been prevented from entering or leaving the ports over the last six weeks. Iran has lost $450 million a day in trade. Admiral Brad Cooper, commander of US Central Command, said the blockade had allowed “zero trade in and out of Iranian ports which has squeezed Iran economically.” Trump has vowed to keep the blockade going because it has been the best leverage against Tehran. But the required quid pro quo – lifting the blockade for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz – will force Admiral Cooper to stand the warships down. Key to guaranteeing the free passage of shipping through the strait in the future will be the presence of a European-led coalition-of-the-willing armada of ships to safeguard all vessels of every nationality. The UK has been in the lead in developing such a coalition. Provided this arrangement is not scuppered by a renewal of Iranian intervention, it could help repair relations between Trump and American allies in Europe which have become frazzled ever since the US launched its war on Iran without consultation on February 28. Trump was angry that European leaders didn’t instantly offer to help in the war on Iran. But if European navies can now play a significant role in ensuring the safety of shipping in the Gulf, Trump might come round to the view that Europe and Nato have a place after all alongside the US. Likewise, the end of the war in Iran would potentially have other positive diplomatic consequences, notably in the Middle East. But that would depend on something which Tehran has been insisting on since the negotiations began, the simultaneous ending of Israel’s war with Hezbollah. Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s leader, has warned Trump that Hezbollah, supported and armed by Iran, would always remain a threat to Israeli security, and that he must have the right to protect his citizens by targeting the designated terrorist group whenever required. This will be a stumbling block for Trump’s dream of wrapping the Abraham Accords around all of America’s Arab allies which he sees as the best way to defend Israel long-term and build opposition to Iran. Ultimately, the goal must be more than just containing Iran. Trump says he has found the new leaders in Iran to be more practically-minded. An Iranian regime more intent on pursuing prosperity for its people than threatening Israel, and the Middle East in general, would be a result Trump could boast about for the rest of his presidential term and beyond.

Trump really does believe a deal with Iran is about to happen

Donald Trump is all smiles today. He is reasonably happy with the way the talks are going to end the war But he is also urging caution to demonstrate that he is not going to rush into a bad deal. He says he doesn't do bad deals ever. Certainly the signs in Tehran and around the Middle East are increasingly hopeful. Of course, as has happened before, it could still all go wrong, but I think this time the rulers in Tehran are keen to negotiate a deal to open the Strait of Hormuz. One problem is the supreme leader, Ayatollah Motjaba Khamenei. Very few people know where he is in hiding, and those that do, have to get messages couriered to him so that he can keep abreast of the state of the negotiations. He has to approve everything personally, and thus there are delays because apparently it can take days for the couriers to reach him. It's a bit like when Osama bin Laden was hiding in his compound in Abbotabad in Pakistan. Al-Qaeda, the terrorist organisation he founded, had to use trusted couriers to pass messages. It was thanks to this system that the CIA was able to track him down. They followed the main courier. Thus, bin Laden was finally traced and taken down. Now I'm not saying the same will happen to Mojtaba Khamenei, but you can bet Israel's Mossad are trying to pinpoint his location via the couriers. But they can't take him out becauae there is a ceasefire and Trump would be furious. He says the current Iranian leaders are more practical to deal with, and I assume that includes the supreme leader. So stay away, Mossad.

US naval blockade was the final nail in Iran's economic coffin

From defiance to a deal, the regime in Tehran has finally come to the conclusion the country cannot survive economically if the US naval blockade continues to slice huge chunks of income from the treasury coffers. The blockade, only imposed after everything else failed to get a peace settlement, has been remarkably successful. Ships going in and out of Iranian ports have been stopped by an array of US guided-missile destroyers. Last night US Central Command issued some fascinating statistics which underline why suddenly Tehran is at last interested in doing a deal with the Americans. Centcom said the warships had "redirected" - ie blocked - more than 100 commercial vessels since the action began on April 13. So, in six weeks, the US warships have stopped all ships entering and leaving the ports. In addition, they have disabled four and allowed 26 humanitarian aid ships to pass. The massive operation has involved both warhsips and aircraft. Centcom said 200 aircraft and warships had taken part - probably about a dozen warships and the rest were aircraft from the two aircraft carriers in the region, the USS Abraham Lincoln and the USS George HW Bush, as well as fighters from the USS Tripoli amphibious ready group, part of the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit. The blockade has targeted vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas. That means every port on the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. Admiral Brad Cooper, commander of Centcom, said the blockade had allowed zero trade into and out of Iranian ports "which has squeezed Iran economically". One estimate is that Iran has lost $450 million in trade every day since the action began. Even the Tehran regime, having done the maths, realised it couldn't go on. So, a deal began to emerge. It's a renarkable achievement by the US Mavy and Marines.

Deal tenterhooks over Iran war

Not for the first time and probably not for the last time there is heightened talk of a possible imminent deal to end the war in Iran. It could all come to nothing like so often before but, despite all the fiery words from the regime in Tehran I cannot believe the relatively new and almost invisible supreme leader really wants his country to be subjected to another round of massive bombing by the US and Israel. The leaders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps go on about taking revenge in a way the world has not yet seen. But this is just words. Whatever is claimed, the previous round of bombing did huge damage to the IRGC's military machine, and a second phase will destroy whatever is left. So, this weekend, aware that Donald Trump has been talking with his Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth about the options for launchig more attacks, Tehran seems to be wavering. Talks between the Iranian parliamentary speaker and chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and the canny Pakistan chief of staff of the army Field Marshal Syed Munir, in Tehran have obviously ended with some sort of formula. There is renewed talk of a memorandum of understanding, the phrase used by Trump when he set down 30 wish-list objectives, the most important of which is the reopening of free passage for all shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. If Tehran agrees to stop interfering in the strait that will be a huge plus for Trump, even though the strait was open before he launched attacks on Iran on February 28. The nuclear issue may well be ppstponed for a later date. This is not such a big plus for Trump because his principal mantra is that Iran cannot ever have a nuclear weapon. Let's see how close the Iranian memorandum of understanding is to Trump's memorandum of understanding. I guess there will be significant differences, but maybe, just maybe, the wording will be less abrasive and more amenable to Trump's demands.

Trump has to "win" the war in Iran before midterms

If the war with Iran is still going on by the midterm elections in November, Donald Trump could be a big loser. The Republicans could lose the House of Representatives and maybe even the Senate. So the president has less than six months to find a solution which he would be able to describe as a victory. Iran is not going to help him. In fact with this setting up of the so-called Persian Gulf Strait Authority which Tehran intends to use as a way of charging all ships fees for passing through the chokepoint (possibly sharing the funds with Oman across the water), it means the Islamic revolutionary rulers in Iran will become the Mafia bosses of the strait. It's protection money - "you pay a fee or else we attack you and burn your ship". Trump could never describe that as a victory. Likewise, if the nuclear issue is not reolved that will also prevent Trump from ending the war satisfactorily. One way or another, those 440.9 kilos of 60-per-cent-enriched uranium, lying buried under damaged nuclear plants, has to be uncovered and sent out of Iran. If not, it will remain a permanent worry for the White House and for the Middle East, and for all of us. So, what can Trump do in the next six months to save Congress from being handed to the Democrats in November? Restart widescale bombing of military targets might look good but what will it actually achieve? Giving in to Iran's Strait of Hormuz blackmail would be a political disaster. So there is only one option for Trump. He must tell Tehran that he plans to redouble the blockade of all Iranian ports for an indefinite period unless Iran stops interfering in the Strait of Hormuz. And as an added warning, Trump should tell Tehran that if it fails to back away from the strait, he will order the Pentagon to bomb every nuclear site for a period of two weeks until they are totally destroyed. Then see what the mullahs do!

Iran tries to make control of the Strait of Hormuz official

Iran is getting more confident about taking over the Strait of Hormuz. It has formed a special authority to be in charge of the key part of the chokepoint in order to dictate who can go through and who can't and to charge a fee. It's outrageous but the regime in Tehran has geography on its side and it's going to be a huge challenge for Donald Trump and the whole shipping world. What in practical terms can Trump do to prevent Iran absorbing the strait under its control? It doesn't seem to matter how many aircraft carriers the US Navy sends to the Gulf or how many guided-missile destroyers. The fact is, the Iranians are sitting pretty on their land overlooking the strait and they have most of the cards in their hands. Unless, of course, Trump authorises a massive military operation to seize a chunk of Iranian coastline and put troops everywhere to make sure ships get through without being interfered with or charged. Just bombing everything won't make a difference. It has to be troops on the ground. But Iran knows for sure Trump doesn't want to do that. So before the US/Israeli strikes began on February 28, tankers and other vessels were passing through the strait without any interference from Iran. Now it has totally changed. So the war has made things worse, not better. As for the nuclear issues, that is still in limbo. So, where are we, nearly twelve weeks into the war? We've gone backwards, everything is worse than it was before February 28.Someone very clever has to sort this out once and for all. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER. WATERSTONES, ROWANVALE BOOKS, AMAZON.