Trump says "just sit back and relax"

Donald Trump is in a very relaxed mood and wants all Americans to stop worrying about the war against Iran. In a Truth Social post he advised everyone "just sit back and relax". It's difficult for most families to do that because the war has caused the cost of living to rocket upwards and most of them can't afford to fill up their cars with petrol (gas, for the Americans). But what Trump I guess is trying to do is calm the waters as the negotiations continue to end the war although there is little sign a deal is coming any day soon. In fact, the longer it all goes on, the more tetchy both side become and, sure enough, they start firing at each other. This is the way with ceasefires. Look what's happening in southern Lebanon where there is supposed to be a ceasefire and also in Gaza where another ceasefire is supposed to be running. With Iran, it's all called self-defense attacks. The US thinks Iran is about to loose off a missile or drone and slams a few bombs into the launch sites. Then the Islamic Rebolutionary Guard Corps fires off a missile and drone towards US bases in Kuwait by way of retaliation. This has happened two or three times since the ceasefire. And I have no doubt there will be more such incidents until a peace deal is signed. Will it actually ever happen? Right now, it seems unlikely. But Trump says sit and relax, so maybe he is convinced there will be a settlement.

Why does Europe want to negotiate with Putin?

The worst job in the world is to try negotiating with President Vladimir Putin to end the war in Ukraine to everyone’s satisfaction. Yet European leaders want to do just that. Frustrated by the failure of the Trump administration to negotiate anything of value with Putin, Europe is scurrying around looking for the ideal candidate to confront the Russian leader across the table and bash out a peace deal. It’s a fantasy world, of course. If Putin obstructed Trump, his old sparring partner, and never remotely got close to a deal with the Americans, why would he consider sitting down with some European leader, or ex-leader, to bring the four-year war to an end? Indeed, why would Trump be happy to hand over the poisoned chalice to a European at a time when he has little affection for anything Europe and has been dismissive of the Transatlantic alliance following his go-it-alone (alongside Israel) war with Iran? European Union foreign ministers are discussing the potential for diplomatic intervention vis a vis the war in Ukraine at am informal meeting in Cyprus today. Already alarm bells have been ringing about the need first to formulate a policy approach towards Russia before anointing an individual to be the EU chief negotiator. The renewed interest in Europe taking over the diplomatic efforts to forge an agreement between Putin and Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky would appear to be doomed - but for one thing. Putin is probably at his weakest since the war began on 24 February 2022. While his natural response to that realisation has been to escalate the war, not back down, somewhere in his mind he must quietly fancy the idea of an EU special negotiator supplanting Trump’s team and arriving at the Kremlin to sit at one end of the 20ft white-topped oval beech table inside the Kremlin while he sits grandly at the other end. The Russian leader, when questioned, has even indicated he might contemplate a European role in trying to find a formula for peace. But he instantly came up with a name that would suit him, his old friend former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroder. EU leaders didn’t like the sound of that and other names have been floated, such as Angela Merkel who speaks fluent Russian and always got on with Putin when she was German chancellor, and Mario Draghi, former Italian prime minister. President Alexander Stubb of Finland has suggested he would be prepared to take on the role provided there was first a ceasefire agreed. This is all premature stuff. But the EU has Zelensky on side. He has been pushing for a bigger role for Europe for a long time, ever since his verbal battering from Trump and Vice President JD Vance in the Oval Office fifteen months ago. However, it’s trickier for Europe than it is for the Trump administration. Trump comes with his personality baggage, and Putin likes that. As a former KGB boss, he loves the drama of a set-to with a Big Rival. Trump fills that spot nicely. They play the game in front of the world’s TV cameras and expectations are high. But, as with the notorious Anchorage summit in Iceland on 15 August last year, nothing of any significance emerged. Would Putin really succumb to the charms of a European chief negotiator and make conciliatory noises about a possible peace deal after he had effectively snubbed Trump’s efforts? Europe also has its problems. Unlike Washington which has wavered over Ukraine like the huge Stars and Stripes flags now installed on the north and south lawns of the White House, European leaders have been pretty steadfast both in terms of arming Kyiv and standing shoulder-to-shoulder with Zelensky in fighting off the Russians. Europe, too, has been adamant that it backs Zelensky’s position on territory. Putin’s demand for the whole of the Donbas region, including the areas still under Ukrainian ownership, has been rejected by Kyiv. Trump, on the other hand, has spoken in the past about the necessity of doing a territorial deal to end the war. So, any Europe-led diplomatic intervention based on that sort of red line would start on shaky ground in Putin’s eyes. Nevertheless, the state of the battlefield after more than four years might still be the decisive factor. According to Anne Keast-Butler, director of GCHQ, the government’s signal intelligence centre, nearly 500,000 Russian soldiers have been killed since the war began. That’s a higher figure than has been officially estimated in recent months. Russian invasion troops have achieved zero territorial gains for months; and even though Putin launched 90 hypersonic and intermediate-range ballistic missiles and 600 drones at Kyiv and other cities on the night of 23-24 May, Ukraine’s determination not to falter has remained resolute. Ukrainian strikes with drones and cruise missiles into Russia, hitting targets on the outskirts of Moscow must have concentrated Putin’s thinking as he hides away in his network of bunkers. Trump’s focus right now is on Iran, with Cuba waiting in the wings for White House treatment. Perhaps the president will be relieved to hand over the war in Ukraine to the Europeans. He has as good as said it’s a European responsibility. However, is Europe truly ready to take on the role? In the end, Trump will want to claim the trophy for ending a war he boasted he could wrap up in twenty-four hours. He won’t like Europe getting in the way of that dream. Whoever is chosen to be the EU chief negotiator could well be battling it out with Trump as well as Putin. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER.

Proposed Iran deal makes no sense

Iran claims Donald Trump is making excessive demands to bring the war to an end and find a peace settlement. But it's just as much the other way around. The hardliners (aren't they all?) in Tehran are making demands that Trump can never agree to. Princippaly to do with the Strait of Hormuz. The situation at the strait HAS to return to the status quo ante, in other words, a free-flowing shipping route through the chokepoint without any interference from either Iran on one side or Oman on the other. Any final deal that allows the Islamic Revolutionbary Guard Corps to have "management" contrtol of its side of the strait, whether demanding tolls or not, cannot be allowed, not if Trump wants to declare victory over the mullahs in Iran. But this is what is being implied in the one-page memorandum of understanding, or, at least, in the thinking of the Tehran regime and its interpretation of the MoU. Iran, having enjoyed the fruits of control over the strait it doesn't want to give it up. The thought of extracting $1 million a go every time a ship goes through the strait would be like manna from heaven. It would help Iran to rebuild its economy and, possibly, renew its nuclear programme. So, Trump cannot agree to a deal which even hints at Iran benefiting from reopening the strait. He had a meeting in the White House Situation Room on Friday to talk about the MoU but came out after two hours without giving it a nod of approval. So he must have doubts. On the other hand, he is pretty anxious to wrap the whole thing up, whatever he claims about "not rushing" into a settlement. The other thing that makes no sense is the apparent Trump order to lift the naval blockade. This is crazy because it's working and making Tehran desperate. So keep the blockade going until all the dots and dashes have been sorted out.

Nato must stand up to Putin

A Russian (who else could it be?) armed drone flies low over the border into Romania and smashes into the top floors of an apartment block exploding in a ball of flame and injuring two civilians. All Nato has said so far is that it will defend every inch of every alliance member. But actually, that's just words. Romania has been droned by Moscow and has got away with it. It could have been a misfiring by Russia but it looks far more likely to be a deliberate strike to see what Nato would do. Nothing it seems, so Putin will be very happy. Of course its tricky for Nato because they can't just fire off a drone or two at Russia in retaliation, but first and foremost that Russian drone should have been shot down before it reached the Romanian city of Galati, and then examined with great care to prove it was a Russian brand. And then Moscow should have been warned that if they do anything like this again, it will be regarded as an attack on the whole of Nato, and see if that gives Putin a reason to be more cautious next time.

A potential Iran deal in the midst of strikes and counter-strikes

As so often with ceasefires, the violence still carries on. Iran threatens US ships with drones and ballistic missiles, so America takes instant safeguarding action, and then Iran retaliates with strikes on a US base in Kuwait and so on and so on. But amidst all the military action, the negotiators have been getting on with the job of finding a formula for peace. Now, it seems there may be a final draft. But Trump seems to have rejected it as a fabrication. So who knows what is going on. The new draft, just a one-page document, appears to say that Iran and Oman will share the joint management of the Strait of Hormuz to allow all shipping safe passage. But will this include a toll system? Either way, Trump is not going to approve a deal which gives Iran any sort of control over the strait. It didn't exist before the US and Israel attacked Iren on February 28, so the president is never going to go along with Iranian control now. But with Oman on side as joint manager of the strait, may be this could be a concession worth looking at but only if there is a guarantee of free passage for all ships, plus of course, an agreement by Tehran to give up enriching uranium to a high grade. But it may be a step backwards too far for Trump who wants two days to think his thoughts. I guess he will say no, and then what?

Never take our eyes off North Korea

It is one of the most extraordinary things about this world that every so often there is another war and we all think the third world war is about to arrive. So the Russian war against Ukraine and the US/Israel war against Iran have consumed every newspaper, radio and TV station. Death and destruction and lives ruined, people made homeless, despair and desperation and poverty. But all this time, North Korea just carries on developing more and better long-range ballistic missiles, more and more nuclear warheads, more and more long-range artillery systems, cruise missiles and every other type of missile you can imagine. Does anyone do anything about it? No, because it is now what we expect North Korea and its scary leader Kim Jong-un to do. He is building a mighty fortress around his country and you hardly hear a whisper from Washington. Donald Trump has suggested he might have another go at meeting up with his "friend", Kim, but Kim can't be bothered to meet him. All he wants to do is dress up in his fancy leather coat that goes down to his ankles and watch as the latest ballistic and cruise missiles get fired off and then everyone around him claps and fawns over their leader. It's a total anathema, it's a blotch on the planet but it's there and will remain there and the world just gets on with other crises. North Korea is probably one of the gravest threats to world peace but Kim is left alone to get on with it.

The price of peace with Iran

A US/Iran “peace” deal on paper might bring the war to an end but what will it mean for the future of the Middle East, America’s standing in the region and the security of Israel? Even as President Trump’s negotiators and special mediators (Pakistan’s army chief and prime minister), were trying to finalise the wording of the memorandum of understanding laying down the principles of a peace settlement, the idea of a grand-design strategy was already under discussion. A contained or, better still, conciliatory regime in Tehran could make the difference between a future of constant warfare and a region blessed with prosperity and improving relations. At this stage, after a bitter war which has brought death and destruction to more than half a dozen countries in the Gulf region, it might seem overly optimistic to imagine that a tentative deal between Washington and Tehran might lead to a period of genuine stability, even possibly an element of trust between longstanding enemies. It looks out of the question at present with so much rivalry and hatred and enduring ideological differences. However, the Trump administration is intent on expanding the Abraham Accords, the deal that saw the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain sign an agreement to normalise diplomatic relations with Israel ion September 15, 2020, during Trump’s first term. With Israel’s military attacks against Hamas in Gaza and against Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Tel Aviv government's refusal to countenance an independent Palestinian state, any further moves to bring countries such as Saudi Arabia into the Abraham Accords family had to be abandoned. The US/Israel war on Iran, even though supported by Gulf allies fearful of Tehran’s nuclear ambitions, further postponed discussions with Washington over its grand-design concept for the Middle East. First, however, depending on the effectiveness and viability of a peace deal with Iran, the US will need to make key military decisions about its presence in the region over the next few years. It has become an axiom in western diplomatic circles that Iran can never be trusted to act in good faith. As a consequence, the US will have to retain a permanent aircraft carrier strike group in the region and preserve the 50,000 troop levels currently spread out in a number of Gulf nations. For the foreseeable future, while the negotiations continue to find a satisfactory nuclear deal with Tehran, it will be imperative to have all the military assets at a high state of readiness to impress on Tehran the need to reach a long-term agreement on the country’s uranium-enrichment programme. There are currently around 4,400 marines stationed on amphibious assault ships in the Gulf, about 3,000 combat soldiers from 82nd Airborne Division and hundreds of special operations troops, awaiting orders from Trump for action in Iran. They can’t stay there for ever but will have to remain during the proposed 30-day ceasefire extension. However, the US view on what military assets must stay in the region to deter Iran will conflict with the stance adopted by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC). “Iran appears to believe that it is negotiating from a stronger position than the United States and is accordingly attempting to remake the regional order in a way that benefits Iran,” said the Institute for the Study of War in Washington. This suggests that whatever agreement is signed about reopening the Strait of Hormuz, the long-term plan of Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, may be to retain some form of strategic control over the strait. For the purposes of the peace deal with Washington, however, Iran will no doubt initially play ball and reopen the waterway without imposing tolls on shipping, in return for the US lifting its naval blockade of all Iranian ports. The blockade which has involved two dozen US warships and about 150 aircraft, has been remarkably successful: more than 100 commercial ships have been prevented from entering or leaving the ports over the last six weeks. Iran has lost $450 million a day in trade. Admiral Brad Cooper, commander of US Central Command, said the blockade had allowed “zero trade in and out of Iranian ports which has squeezed Iran economically.” Trump has vowed to keep the blockade going because it has been the best leverage against Tehran. But the required quid pro quo – lifting the blockade for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz – will force Admiral Cooper to stand the warships down. Key to guaranteeing the free passage of shipping through the strait in the future will be the presence of a European-led coalition-of-the-willing armada of ships to safeguard all vessels of every nationality. The UK has been in the lead in developing such a coalition. Provided this arrangement is not scuppered by a renewal of Iranian intervention, it could help repair relations between Trump and American allies in Europe which have become frazzled ever since the US launched its war on Iran without consultation on February 28. Trump was angry that European leaders didn’t instantly offer to help in the war on Iran. But if European navies can now play a significant role in ensuring the safety of shipping in the Gulf, Trump might come round to the view that Europe and Nato have a place after all alongside the US. Likewise, the end of the war in Iran would potentially have other positive diplomatic consequences, notably in the Middle East. But that would depend on something which Tehran has been insisting on since the negotiations began, the simultaneous ending of Israel’s war with Hezbollah. Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s leader, has warned Trump that Hezbollah, supported and armed by Iran, would always remain a threat to Israeli security, and that he must have the right to protect his citizens by targeting the designated terrorist group whenever required. This will be a stumbling block for Trump’s dream of wrapping the Abraham Accords around all of America’s Arab allies which he sees as the best way to defend Israel long-term and build opposition to Iran. Ultimately, the goal must be more than just containing Iran. Trump says he has found the new leaders in Iran to be more practically-minded. An Iranian regime more intent on pursuing prosperity for its people than threatening Israel, and the Middle East in general, would be a result Trump could boast about for the rest of his presidential term and beyond.