The selected new supreme leader is Iran's two-fingers to Trump

Iran has done what Donald Trump said publicly would be unacceptable. The Assembly of Experts, all radical Shi'ite clerics, voted for the son of the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to be the new supreme leader. Trump said Mojtaba Khamenei, the 56-year-old son, was definitely not on his list of suitable candidates (suitable to Washington) to take over the top slot. But Mojtaba Khamenei was duly selected and now, because of his tight, longstanding association with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, he is probably the worst possible outcome for the US and Israel, now starting DayTen of the war against Tehran. The IRGC basically runs the country under the say-so of the supreme leader. This corps of up to 180,000 ayatollah devotees controls about 60 per cent of Iran's economy and is in charge of defence and foreign policy and is key to all the terrorist attacks throughout the Middle East and Europe, courtesy of its overseas wing, the Quds Force. So, with Mojtaba Khamenei now in charge, there is no hope of any kind of practical deal between Iran and the US, and no hope whatsoever for the poor Iranian people who just want a decent life. Israel has already threatened to bump off the new supreme leader and clearly he is going to be someone with a target on his back. But even if Israel succeeds, I doubt this will bring the Tehran regime to its knees. How is this war going to come to an end? PLEASE BUY AGENT REDUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER, SEQUEL TO SHADOW LIVES. AMAZON, ROWANVALE BOOKS AND WATERSTSONES.

Can the US get its hands on Iran's 400 kilos of enriched uranium?

On the ninth day of the US/Israel war against Iran and still no attempt is being made to find and remove the 400 kilograms of 60 per cent enriched uranium which lies buried at the damaged Isfahan nuclear site. Too dangerous to send in US special forces, Donald Trump must be hoping that if he bombs Iran to capitulation the Tehran regime will just hand over the 400 kilos and have done with the ambition to build a bomb. But this is probably never going to happen. So US spy satellites are watching any move by the Iranians to dig out the canisters, and if they do, they will be bombed. The next stage in the bombmaking process, apart from enriching the 60 per cent material to fissile strength (90 per cent) is to turn the uranium from its present state which consists of uranium hexafluoride (ie gas) into metal for shaping into a warhead. At the moment the 400 kilos have little significance. but if the war ends and these canisters are still in Iranian hands, Trump will not be able to claim victory. So, right now there is stalemate. But this is an issue which has to be resolved before the war comes to an end. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY SPY THRILLER PAPERBACK. AMAZON, ROWANVALE BOOKS, WATERSTONES.

How Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was a sitting duck

By the time the Ayatollah began his day in Tehran, the spies listening to his calls were already extremely familiar with the habits of a supreme leader whose number was up. In orbit overhead, an Orion, the largest and most secretive of all American space satellites, could detect the voices of the regime as they exchanged increasingly worried messages about the build up of forces in the region. There were other high-tech efforts to track what is known as “life-pattern surveillance” of Ali Khamenei and his henchmen, including the now well-documented hacking of Tehran’s traffic camera network to track the movement of his bodyguards. All that remained in days and weeks before Khamenei’s killing, however, was the most prized asset of all: boots on the ground to confirm that all the technological surveillance was correct, that on a Saturday morning in Tehran, Khamenei would be a sitting duck. There, American intelligence officials turned to the masters of espionage in Iran: Mossad, Israel’s spy agency. Unrivalled in its experience of assassinating top military commanders and nuclear scientists, the agency was ultimately leading the plot to kill the supreme leader. It was only a matter of time before Khamenei and senior regime officials were eliminated, General Jack Keane, former vice-chief of staff of the US army and a trusted confidant of the Trump administration, told The Times. Indeed, there was little they could do to stop it, he said. “Although the Iranian leadership knew there was this risk, and changed their security procedures, even these changes had new habits which became predictable. Explaining the events that led up to Khamenei’s killing, Keane detailed an extensive intelligence operation that came to a stunning conclusion. “We were monitoring not just Ayatollah Ali Khamenei but the other leaders too,” he said. “And this is how we knew there was going to be a key meeting and that it would be in the presidential compound. We knew that Khamenei would not be in his bunker, given the meeting was scheduled for daytime, which provided a narrow opportunity to act.” Keane would know. The retired four-star general has long been one of the most influential military figures in Washington. When Donald Trump first won the White House in 2016, he wanted Keane to be his defence secretary but the general’s wife had just died, and Keane reluctantly declined the job. “We have a long experience in tracking high-value Islamic targets and the intelligence was very good,” he explained. “But Mossad provided the human intelligence, while we provided the other intelligence elements.” He said that the Israelis had “effectively taken up residence” in Tehran. “They resemble Persians as they speak Farsi without a hint of an accent and are well versed in the culture, customs and appropriate dress,” he said. “And they have developed scores of informants.” All this, said Keane, meant there was “no point” in the CIA attempting to have its own boots on the ground to “duplicate this sort of capability when they can rely on our close ally, which is the decision taken by previous administrations, given the multiple other threats worldwide that the CIA must entertain”. He added: “As such, we rely on Israeli human intelligence inside Iran and we don’t feel it’s necessary to replicate Mossad. We admire their dedication and continuous success they have achieved for many years. If the CIA’s human spying assets in Iran are limited, as Keane suggests, it enjoys technological superiority, deploying its Orion satellites and other overhead surveillance, such as the RC-135 Rivet Joint aircraft that can scoop up communications, and Reaper intelligence-gathering drones. Both these systems have been operating near and over Iran. During the planning stage of the mission, the CIA and the National Security Agency provided back-up in tracking the supreme leader’s habits and routines. Analysis of signals intelligence data collected by an Orion, operated by the US National Reconnaissance Office and capable of listening in on mobile phone conversations from more than 22,000 miles above the Earth, supported Mossad’s daily reports of the whereabouts of Khamenei. Sources suggest that, had the Ayatollah remained in his bunker, he would still have been targeted. There was a plan to take him out there but it would have been more complex. Instead of going down this route, there was judged to be a unique and brief opportunity with the Iranian leaders all coming together. Mossad had been tracking Khamenei for months and there was a question about whether they should go ahead themselves or wait for the Americans in a joint operation. Both Mossad and the CIA knew that Khamenei had alternative sites that could enable him to survive outside Tehran. And there was a fear, too, that he might be spirited out of the capital. But Mossad’s sources discovered that the Ayatollah would be meeting his top officials in central Tehran on Saturday. Both in Israel and the US, the meeting was considered too opportunist a gift to ignore. So the decision was taken to “seize the moment”. There have been claims however, that by staying in central Tehran and not fleeing, Khamenei may have wanted to die as a martyr. US military sources suggest that, if the ultimate objective of war is to break your enemy, the targeting of leadership can have a huge impact on the way a future operation goes. That appears to be Israel’s modus operandi. On September 27, 2024, the Israeli air force carried out an airstrike on Hezbollah’s headquarters in Beirut after receiving intelligence that the leader, Hassan Nasrallah, and his main commanders would all be together at a meeting. The death of Nasrallah and many of his commanders transformed the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. The Israelis also learnt lessons from the 12-day war against Iran in June, when they assassinated key nuclear scientists and military commanders. In Operation Epic Fury, after the killing of Khamenei and some of his top commanders, Iranian ballistic missile launches were reduced by 50 per cent on day two, by 75 per cent on day three and by 86 per cent on day four. This was achieved not just by targeting Iran’s missiles, missile transportation systems and command and control with airstrikes but also with massive cyberattacks, US sources said. One US source said: “We knew from electronic eavesdropping that the Iranians planned to retaliate massively. Their thinking was that if on day one they could cause a lot of casualties it would begin to break the US and Israeli resolve. “They deliberately aimed most of their launches at the Gulf states. They hoped the Gulf nations would put pressure on the US to stand down because of the impact on oil prices and world economies and stability in the region.” However, the US has been knocking out Iran’s missiles, so the Iranians were prevented from carrying out the massive retaliation they had planned. The US military estimated that if Iran managed to launch salvos at the rate of 25 to 50 ballistic missiles at a time, a percentage would get through, even with the array of defences deployed. The Israelis have the Arrow anti-missile system, and the US have Thaad (terminal high-altitude area defence), Patriots and Standard SM-3 interceptors on Aegis guided missile destroyers. It turned out that Iran had only managed salvos of between two and five missiles, US sources said. Iranian drone strikes are also down by 73 per cent since the opening days of the war, according to General Dan Caine, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff. “We will now begin to expand inland, striking progressively deeper into Iranian territory,” he said at a press conference this week. Keane said the mission to eliminate Khamenei showed the effectiveness of human intelligence on the ground being supplemented by electronic surveillance. “Put it all together,” he said, “and you can find anyone and track them at any given time.” PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER IN PAPERBACK. AMAZON, ROWANVALE BOOKS, WATERSTONES

Trump wants Iran to surrender and become rich

Donald Trump is offering Iran a future of prosperity and wealth, provided the mullahs and ayatollahs drop out of the scene and hand over the government to a nice, peace-loving, western-orientated, democracy enthusiast who will transform the country's prospects. It is as they say, a big ask. Trump will want a hand in the choice of new leader. Another big ask. It all seems unreal except that the US president genuinely believes that you can bomb a country into democracy. I expect a large percentage of the Iranian population, especially the younger generation, would be very happy to have their country back and live a life that is closer to western democracy than Islamic autocracy. But to get there, the clerics who now the country with the backing of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps will have other ideas. They have made it clear they are not going to surrrender to Trump's wishes, let alone consider total capitulation, as he has been demanding. If that remains the case, then it means poor Iran and the poor Iranian people who just want peace will face more and more bombing and more and more destruction. Peace is, unhappily, a long way off, thanks to the extreme clerics who run the show.

The long arm of the Trump war department

The most extraordinary event so far in Operation Epic Fury, Donald Trump's war against Iran, is the sinking of an Iranian warship off Sri Lanka. A long way from Iran - about 2,000 miles - and sunk by a US submarine firing torpedos. First, this is the first firing in anger by an American submarine since I don't know when, and, second, it shows the Pentagon, and more specifically US Central Command, is on the lookout for anything Iranian floating or flying which can be targeted. The Iranian warship, a frigate called Iris Dena, sunk about 25 miles off the southern Sri Lankan coast. It sent out a Mayday appeal and 32 of the sailors were rescued. But 80 sailors died. Because it was part of the Iranian navy I guess the Pentagon thought it was a legitimate target, following Trump's stated desire to demolish the whole of the ayatollah's navy. This was one warship that got away, until a US submarine sneaked up on it and fired a torpedo or two into its hull. The crew on board probably thought they were well out of it when they were suddenly attacked. If there are any other Iranian warships still sailing the seas, they better watch out.This is unquestionably an unequal war. Iran likes to think of itself as a big power with tons of ballistic missiles to threaten anyone who attacks the country. But the reality is, their weapons and armaments and warships are being picked off at a huge rate on a daily basis by the US and Israeli military, and soon Iran will have nothing left. This is clearly part of the Epic Fury plan. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY PAPERBACK SPY THRILLER. AMAZON, ROWANVALE BOOKS, WATERSTONES.

When is this war in Iran going to end?

The way the Israeli air force in particular is bombing Tehran every day, there won't be much left for the new supreme leader - supposedly the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's son, Mojtaba - to govern. wWhat's more, Israel has said it will assassinate the new leader anyway. This is serious stuff. In fact, it looks like Israel is taking over the momentum of this war, taking advantage of having the US in the air on its side pounding away as well, to do what it always wanted to do which was to remove from the planet the most serious risk to Israel's future. Right now, it seems this war is going to go on and on. Trump said four or five weeks but I reckon more like four or five months. Unless, the new ayatollah supreme leader, or his successor or his successor, depending on what Israel decides, begs for mercy and calls for a halt and formally gives up nuclear weapon ambitions and all ballistic missiles AND Iran's alignment with Hamas, Hezbollah, the nasty militias in Iraq and anyone else who benefits from Iranian money and weapons. All of which seems highly unlikely. So, does Trump really want a war lasting for months when, supposedly, he hates wars. I think there will come a point when something seriously awful happens, and the rest of the world will start to get involved to bring it all to an end. At the moment, there appears to be no effort anywhere, apart from UN entreaties, to stop the bombings. BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY SPY THRILLER PAPERBACK. AMAZON, ROWANVALE BOOKS, WATERSTONES.

Did Trump breach the executive order against assassinations?

In 1975 President Gerald Ford signed an Executive Order 11905 which banned any US official in whatever capacity, including the president himself, to engage in assassinations of heads of state and government leaders. It arose out of an investigation into the many attempts made by the CIA - eight in all - to cause the demise of Fidel Castro, the Cuban dictator. That executive order was reaffirmed by President Jimmy Carter and President Ronald Reagan. The executive order holds to this day. Yet, the first objective of Operation Epic Fury appears to have been the targeting and killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of Iran. So, that represents the first assassination of a head of state since that original executive order. Technically it was the Israelis who killed Khamenei because it was Israeli air force fighter bombers which dropped the bombs on the office compound where he and many of his officials and military commanders were meeting. But it was CIA intelligence which helped to pinpoint the ayatollah's whereabouts. So, it was really a joint US/Israel operation which ended with the death of Iran's leader. I don't know how the White House legal counsel will have advised the president. But some sort of justification must have been proferred. It's certainly one of the reasons why Keir Starmer refused to support the US operation. No one, apart from a few rabid Iranians in Tehran, will mourn for the loss of the ayatollah whose rule was notable for repression, brutality and an obsession with having a nuclear bomb. PLEASE BUY AND ENJOY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER. AMAZON, ROWANVALE BOOKS, WATERSTONES.