World views from the author of First with the News, a memoir of life on the front line
Sunday, 8 February 2026
Why was a US admiral at the Iran talks?
The oresence of a fully uniformed US admiral at the talks on Friday between American and Iranian delegates was a nice touch. More a piece of theatre than a diplomatic move. I don't suppose Admiral Brad Cooper, commander of Central Command, and thus the boss of the armada of ships currently in the Gulf off Iran, had to actually say anything other than "how do you do, good to meet you" when he was introduced to Abbas Araghchi, the Iranian foreign minister. But the symbolism was huge. It was Donald Trump's way of saying to Tehran, "we're here to do a diplomatic deal but if you don't play ball then Admiral Cooper has his orders to start bombing military sites in Iran". I'm sure the Iranian foreign minister got the message. I wonder if the Iranians were warned beforehand that the admiral in his uniform would be participating in the talks, held in Muscat in Oman. Central Command covers 16 countries including all of the nations in the Gulf region. So for the admiral it was a chance to meet an important figure representing the country which basically provides most of the aggravation in the Middle East, either directly or indirectly through its proxy militia. The involvement of Admiral Cooper in Muscat was an in-your-face signal from Trump that his massive armada, headed by the carrier, USS Abraham Lincoln, is ready and waiting for the order to strike at Iran if the talks fail to achieve the required objectives: an end to Iran's nuclear ambitions, the handover of all the 60 per cent-enriched uraniuma, a halt to all further uranium-enrichment, the axeing of all links to Iran's proxy forces in the Middle East such as Hezbollah and the Houthis in Yemen, and the stopping of all killings of protesters by the security forces. It's a big ask which Araghchi has already dutifully dismissed. He wants just the nuclear issue to be discussed. He will have returned to Tehran, hoever, with the image of Admiral Cooper staring at him across the table.
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Saturday, 7 February 2026
Trump wants the war in Ukraine to end by June
It's always risky to name a date to end a war that has shown no sign yet of ever coming to an end. Donald Trump's latest deadline for stopping the killings and destruction is June. It sounds arbitrary except that if the war were to end by that month, it would probably help the Republicans to keep their seats in the US mid-term elections in November. So we can expect a massive push from Washington to fix many more trilateral talks between the US, Russia and Ukraine to find the formula that so far has been sadly absent. Eventually, we could see a summit between Trump, Putin and Zelensky, although that would seem to be pie-in-the-sky at the moment. There won't be a summit of this stature until the negotiators have done a deal, and that's as far off as ever. Meanwhile, to emphasise the leverage that Putin has over Zelesnky, his forces have been pounding Ukraine's energy sector with hundreds of drones and amissiles, so that large numbers of Ukrainians are living in freezing conditions. War is always cruel, but Putin is masterminding the cruellest of all, making as many civilians as possible suffer from appalling cold temperatures, lack of water, and no power to cook food. How many Ukrainians are dying from cold or lack of food? Under Trump's timetable this will all come to an end in four months. I seriously doubt it.
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Friday, 6 February 2026
Could there be a new nuclear arms race?
The expiration of the New Start Treaty reducing the size of the nuclear arsenals held by the United States and Russia has inevitably led to fears that the world is about to see a so-called nuclear arms race with each of the two signatories to that treaty rushing ahead to build more and more warheads and missiles. But it's not in their interest to start spending vast new sums on increasing the size of the arsenals. There are already way too many to make the Cold War's Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD) concept any less or more effective. Russia certainly can't afford to build and field hundreds or thousands more nukes, and nor can the US. The focus will surely be more on modernising the nukes now getting old and potentially unreliable, rather than increasing stocks. However, when a treaty of such historic importance expires without any talk of urgent meetings to extend it, should the world be worried? Donald Trump's approach is actually the right one. Instead of trying to extend the New Start Treaty, he says he wants a totally new treaty and for it to be signed by China as well. This is surely the way forward. China will resist it but with Beijing planning to build its stock of nuclear warheads from 600 to at least 1,000 by 2030, there is every reason to persuade Beijing to join a treaty to keep nuclear stocks to a limited level, even though China is far behind the American and Russian stockpiles. Meanwhile, the real arms race will continue to be in developing hypersonic missiles, nuclear or conventionally armed. A new treaty limiting these weapons would make sense, too.
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Thursday, 5 February 2026
Latest Russia/Ukraine talks go nowhere
The exchange of a few hundred prisoners of war was all that was achieved in the latest talks involving Ukraine and Russia in Abu Dhabi. You could argue that was at least something. But on the question of the two biggest obstacles to peace - land and Ukraine's future security guarantees from the US - there was seemingly no movement at all. When is there ever going to be a change of mind on Putin's part, or Zelensky's part? Neither is prepared to give up their red line demands - Putin to have the whole of Donbas, asnd Zelensky to hold onto the 20 per cent of land his military still control in Donetsk in the Donbas region. It's not just an impasse, it's an unmoveable blockage. Whatever Donald Trump says to Zelensky, the Ukrainian leader is never going to back down on this issue, and whatever incentives Trump gives to Putin to concede the land issue. the Russian leader is never going to stop the war until he gets Donbas on a plate. Not just that, he wants agreement for Donbas to be designated a Russian province and for the world to recognise it. On the security question, we have heard before that Zelensky has been offered a deal which he says is satisfactory. But if and when it is actually implemented, what will it involve? Not US troops stationed in Ukraine. That will never happen. Not US fighter jets based in Ukraine. That won't happen either. So how strong will the guarantees be once the war is over, to give Kyiv reassurance that in the event of future aggression from Moscow, the US will rush to help? The US is never going to agree a deal in which there is a possibility that as a result the US and Russia will be at war. That's just not going to happen, either, not while Trump is president.
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Wednesday, 4 February 2026
Can Ukraine and Russia ever do a deal?
Representatives from Russia, Ukraine and the US are gathering in Abu Dhabi for a second round of talks to try and forge a peace settlement to end the four-year war. But is there really any hope of a breakthrough when both sides are so adamant about the land issue. Zelensky cannot envisage any time when he might consider giving up the whole of the Donbas to the Russians without a fight; and Putin says there will be no end to the war until Kyiv hands over Donbas. According to newspaper reports, there is a growing feeling in Ukraine, especially perhaps in Donbas, that getting peace would be better than hanging on for dear life to the bits of Donbas still controlled by Ukraine. In fact it's about 20 per cent of Donetsk, one of two provinces in the Donbas region. That's a lot of land to surrender, especially as it includes crucial defensive positions which so far have managed to keep the Russian military at bay for the last four years. Has it come to this? Peace or land? This is the question which is going to come up again and again in the Abu Dhabi talks. I just don't see this being resolved. Zelensky is never going to agree. Zelensky can't agree. Not when so many Ukrainian lives have been lost in Moscow's relentless bombing and drone campaign in Donbas.
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Tuesday, 3 February 2026
Why did so many people love Jeffrey Epstein?
I don't think I'm misquoting Donald Trump who described Jeffrey Epstein as a slezebag and creep. But Trump for a time also fell under his spell, even if in later years he banned him from his Mar-a-Lago resort residence. The queue of people from the top end of society who fell for Epstein's charms was so long that he managed to absorb into his web huge numbers of rich and famous - and of course royalty. Now, in hindsight, with so much known about what he was doing, it beggars belief that such people carried on adoring him, even when they knew or suspected he was abusing young women/girls. There have been other examples over the years of people becoming attracted to monster human beings, but Epstein is on a pedestal all of his own. His supposed charm and money and powerful friends brought people with similar attributes running to his door. The Epstein club was a unique haven for the rich and famous who wanted to indulge in Epstein's world, supposedly with the promise of secrecy and omerta (the Mafia 'code' for keeping quiet). He was found out and now everyone in his vast contacts book is being exposed. In a brilliant interview in The Times today between Peter Mandelson, former British ambassador to the US, and Katy Balls, Washington editor, the now-disgraced figure in the Epstein scandal gives a pretty good insight into how he got drawn into the Epstein world. He said he was invited to one of Epstein's famous dinner parties and found himself next to a brilliant brain surgeon, and opposite was Bill Gates, with Bill Clinton down the other end of the table. Power.and glamour and influence were on the menu. It doesn't excuse the appalling lack of judgement on the part of everyone who succumbed to Epstein's charms. But it should be a lesson for all power-chasing politicians and the like to take a step back when a seemingly engaging, island-owning charmer shakes your hand and invites you to a swanky dinner party.
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Monday, 2 February 2026
Is Greenland really important for Trump's Golden Dome?
Negotiations for an American take-over of Greenland have gone quiet. The threat of military action may have been abandoned, for the moment, but Trump still wants the largest island in the world. Much of the focus has been on his desire to grab the rare earth minerals buried under Greenland. But the priority reason has already been hinted at. Trump appears to have been told by the Pentagon that if he is to have his Golden Dome anti-missile system to protect the whole of the US, he must acquire Greenland to convert it into a huge anti-missile base, with interceptors in silos all over the island. Situated as it is on the edge of the Arctic, Greenland is in the perfect spot for intercepting hostile nuclear missiles coming from Russia, China or North Korea. These ballistic missiles, were they ever to be launched against the North American continent, would fly above the Earth over the North Pole. At present, there are silos with interceptors in Alaska and California, and there has been much discussion about installing some in New York State. But if the first layer of defence was established on Greenland, it would increase by a significant amount the ability to knock out enemy nukes aiming for the US. At present the US only has an early-warning missile installation site on northwest Greenland. Trump wants to take control of Greenland because he feels America can then do what it wants on the island to provide the sort of missile defence he hopes the Golden Dome will be able to guarantee. But in reality, with negotiations, there is probably a solution to Trump's massive military expansion plans for Greenland without grabbing its sovereignty at the same time.
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