The war with Iran can't go on like this for ever

This tit-for-tat stuff can't go one for ever. At some time, those with a brain in their head will have to call a halt and suggest some way out of this nonsense. You can't bludgeon a whole country into submission. Well, at least not one like Iran. The Tehran regime has clearly decided it's not going to lose this one and will hang on regardless. It's an incredible lesson for the world's military superpower. Might doesn't always, in fact rarely, win the day. What we have at the moment with US Central Command carrying out more attacks every day and putting out statements saying the strikes are intended to "degrade" Iran's ability to target ships in the Strait of Hormuz, is all good and fine. But the strikes are NOT stopping Iran from responding with retaliatory missile and drone attacks on the poor Gulf states, and they are not making it safe for ships to go through the chokepoint. So, in other words, the daily/nightly strikes are destroying a lot of military hardware, but Iran seems to have an inexhaustible supply of weapons to fire at countries allied to the US. So, where is it going? Can this carry on for ever? No, of course not. What I want to know is this: what are Trump's military chiefs telling thir commander-in-chief? Do they just carry out his orders without offering any cautionary advice? Are they telling him that he is winning? It's very clear the US is not winning at the moment. So, why don't Pete Hegseth, the US defence secretary, and General Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, confront Trump and say they are getting nowhere? Because, they are afraid to do so. It's as simple as that. Just like the military chiefs in Moscow are afraid to tell Putin that he is losing the war in Ukraine.

What will break Iran?

With the war between the US and Iran effectively back to square one, what can Donald Trump do to make the Tehran regime back down and go for peace? It won't be from bombing and more bombing. That doesn't seem to work. The only alternative is to destroy Iran's economy. That would require a lot of bombing of all Iran's energy sites which basically allow the country to survive and mount such a leak-free naval blockade that all trade in and out of Iran stops totally. But will Trump go for the jugular? He has largely refrained from destroying Iran's oil terminals, partly because it would have a devastating impact on the Iranian people and world oil prices - thus the global economy. The blockade is back on, so Iran from today will start losing billions of dollars in revenue. But so far that hasn't worked either. As for Trump's announcement that he is going to take over the Strait of Hormuz and charge shipping companies a 20 per cent levy for benefiting from military protection is all hoo haa. You can't denounce Iran for threatening to charge a toll and then do exactly the same. So that won't happen. Basically, Trump is in a right old fix. Whatever he does or threatens to do against Iran, the new mullahs and generals in Tehran stubbornly refuse to cooperate. The war will go on and on and on.

Now the US uses navy drones to hit Iran

It's just like the war in Ukraine where Kyiv is using every type of drone - aerial, naval, underwater. Now for the first time the US has launched surface drones to hit Iran's missile boats and other targets. It's extraordinary how Ukraine has changed the face of warfare for the rest of the world. Israel actually started it years back when they launched aerial drones to hit Syrian air defence systems in the 1970s. Israel pioneered the use of armed drones in warfare, althpugh the US used drones for surveillance in the Vietnam War in the 1960s. But drone warfare has taken off in the battle between Russia and Ukraine, and the drones have become longer-range, more deadly, and far more accurate. Now it's drone warfare between the US and Iran, and the first use by the US of naval surface drones shows how everyone has learnt the lessons from Ukraine. The only trouble is, they are one-way weapon systems, ie kamikaze. Once they've fulfilled their mission, they are destroyed by their own explosives. What the US needs is a two-way naval drone, that comes back, arms up and returns. It probably won't be long. Iran is already using aerial drones to target ships in the Strait of Hormuz and oil facilities in the Gulf. The UK government has transformed its defence strategy by focusing more on drones than anything else. It's the drone warefare era until soemthing else turns up of course.

Looks like Iran will never give up

Whatever the US throws at Iran, the regime rulers still come up with an answer and launch strikes on Gulf states. Despite all the bombings that have taken place since the war began at the end of February, Iran still seems to have a plentiful supply of missiles and drones. How is this possible? The US is supposed to have hit Iran's drone and missile factories, so you would have thought by now the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps would be running out of stocks. But it is not the case. The US military has a massive advantage in terms of firepower but Iran is not cowed. It seems extraordinary that the IRGC can answer back every time they get targeted. This must mean that the Pentagon and the US intelligence community have seriously underestimated the missile and drone stocks Iran has. The bizarre thing is that the US cannot keep targeting Iran's arms production plants unless the IRGC makes the mistake of firing more drones against ships in the Strait of Hormuz. When the IRGC does launch strikes on ships it gives the US instant justification for launching massive retaliatory attacks. Does the IRGC not realise this? Apparently not. This is because the Tehran regime is so obsessed with trying to control the Strait of Hormuz it is literally inviting the US to target its weapons sites and communications facilities. It's madness.

Iran/US confrontation now at critical point

Tehran is claiming that the recent attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz were a mistake, carried out by some unregulated unit of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. I don't believe a word of it, there is no such thing as an ill-disciplined IRGC unit doing its own thing. Nevertheless, the military retaliation from the US was so huge that the rulers in Tehran realised it WAS a mistake, but it was their mistake, not some disobedient drone operating unit. So, Iran rushed off to Oman to talk about the strait and get the language sorted out between the two countries which, geographically, are in the dominant position either side of the strait. And then the severely injured and possibly disfigured new supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei issues a state,ent from his hideout that he wants revenge for the death of his father. That means only one thing if you're sitting in the White House. The ayatollah is threatening Donald Trump personally. So Trump instantly responded that he would destroy every part of Iran if there was an attempt on his life. It's one foot forward and three steps back. That's the way it is with this war. If the new supreme leader is calling on his citizens, wherever they are, to go for Trump, then this war is not going to end soon.

Nato doesn't know where it is with Donald Trump

The Nato summit in Ankara was as confusing as ever for those taking part. Donald Trump was in their midst and sounding off about the alliance being rubbish and not spending enough money on defence and failing to support the US in its war with Iran. And yet, at the end, Trump said he loved everyone, everyone loved him and the alliance had a bright future. Or words to that effect. Generally what Trump says in public is what he means. So at some stage in the summit, Trump must have thought to himself: "This organisation isn't so bad after all. Everyone is being so nice to me and when I want a quick nap no one jogs my arm." So when it was over, it was all sweetness and light. How long this will last we will have to see, especially now that the US and Iran have gone back to battering each other, and the issue of who runs the Strait of Hormuz remains as fuzzy as ever. It's never going to be a Nato war, but at some point the alliance will have to give more backing to the US, if only for the sake of the future of the whole of the Middle East.

Iran thinks it's winning. It's not

Every time the ceasefire between the US and Iran breaks it's the generals and mullahs in Tehran who start it by loosing off drones and missiles at ships which dare to take the southern route through the Strait of Hormuz, ie the Omani side which is protected by US warships. Why they're doing this is obvious. They want all shipping companies to obey their demands whch is for all ships to use the northern side of the strait, ie near Iran, which means they can control and eventually charge companies for the privilege. But every time Tehran orders drone attacks on shipping, violating the ceasefire, they get slammed by the US military. More air defence systems, drone factories, communications sites etc etc get destroyed. Iran is losing this current argument but still thinks it's winning. Tehran and especially the leaders of the Islamic Rebolutionary Guard Corps, are deluding themselves. The US Navy is not going to go away. It's there for the duration, and the more times the ceasefire is breached, the more strikes Iran will get from US bombs and missiles. When will they get the message? The big question is, does Iran actually want peace or does it think that by fighting for control of the Strait of Hormuz it will just have to carry on confronting the US....for ever? This is a hopeless strategy and eventually the US will actually win because so much of Iran's military infrastructure will be destroyed that it won't be able to answer back. But while the Iranian regime thinks it's winning, there will be no peace, just a constant violation of the ceasefire. The key thing for Donald Trump is that if he stays the course, Iran will eventually get the message and go for peace.