The hunt for Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei

It is the covert operation that is never officially discussed or confirmed but the hunt for Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei is preoccupying Mossad and the CIA. While President Trump considers his next move in the war with Iran, Israel’s foreign intelligence service and their American counterparts are jointly trying to trace the supreme leader who took power after his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed in an Israeli airstrike on February 28. The challenge for the world’s most sophisticated intelligence agencies is that the target has gone silent. Mojtaba appears not to have picked up a phone or opened a laptop for about 150 days. He is somewhere in a deep shelter, his face disfigured from injuries sustained in the airstrike that killed his father, and he does not dare emerge into daylight for fear of being spotted by an American spy satellite. To track his father, Israel and the US used every cyber trick in the book, including hacking traffic cameras in Tehran to spot the vehicles used by the former supreme leader’s bodyguards and associates. Technology, orchestrated by the American National Security Agency (NSA) and Israel’s equivalent, known as Unit 8200, uncovered where Ali Khamenei and his principal military and intelligence officials would be on that day. They were all eliminated. This time, it is different. Whether or not it makes sense to try to assassinate the new supreme leader when it is clear the military is really in charge of Iran, the fact remains that Mojtaba has a key role in the regime and decisions on military action and he has gone missing. The key to pinpointing his location is now human intelligence (humint), not eavesdropping and surveillance technology. There are still people in the intelligence community who believe he may be dead and that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is faking his survival to legitimise its war with the US. So what is needed is proof of his existence and confirmation of where he is hiding, perhaps in one of the underground tunnels in Tehran or the military bunker close to the religious city of Qom, about 90 miles south of the capital. With cyber sleuthing less effective, Mossad, with its network of agents inside Iran, many of them demoralised and disillusioned Iranian nationals, is prioritising its efforts on these two questions: Mojtaba’s status and his whereabouts. “The challenge for Israel is the same problem we had in trying to find and release hostages in Gaza,” said Rami Igra, a former division chief of Mossad. “Israeli intelligence controlled the whole of Gaza, every toilet was rigged [bugged] to trace where they were being held but we didn’t find them. There was too much reliance on electronic technology and not enough on real people, human intelligence. “Mojtaba may not be using a phone but if he exists at all, he has other forms of communication, like little pieces of paper. They are using multiple layers of couriers carrying messages. “These couriers are unaware of what they’re doing, other than taking messages from one person to the next. So, if they [Mossad] find him it will be because of a human element. But the regime in Tehran is aware of this danger.” Just as Osama bin Laden, the founder of al-Qaeda, was traced by the CIA through one of his couriers, so Mossad’s focus is on identifying and following those carrying messages to and from Mojtaba. “The only real way to get to Mojtaba is to recruit an agent who is in contact with him,” said Igra. “But this is very difficult because there is tough screening in Iran of all people close to him, and probably only two or three members of the IRGC know how to contact him. “We can also track other people using their phones and listen in on discussions about Mojtaba and where he might be. Iran is a country where the people are suffering from lack of money and we have ways of offering rewards on the internet for information,” he said. Are Mossad agents following key members of the regime to track Mojtaba? President Masoud Pezeshkian, for example, claimed he had spent two and half hours with the injured supreme leader and said he was fine. “This is bullshit,” Igra said. “The Iranian president never saw him.” Avner Avraham, a former lieutenant colonel in Mossad, identified another problem in the hunt for the ayatollah. “They are also using doubles, just like Saddam Hussein did,” he said. He added: “Mojtaba stays in different locations and people are employed to feed him. But what they don’t know is whether the food they are providing is for the real Mojtaba or a double. So they go home at night and believe they are looking after the supreme leader when it fact he’s probably a fake.” At some point, the Iranian people will demand to see their new supreme leader. He failed to appear for his father’s funeral this month. They only evidence for his existence is several official statements about the war issued in his name. Is it possible that to appease the Iranian people, Mojtaba might record a personal message, just like bin Laden used to do when he was hiding in the border area of Afghanistan and Pakistan? “Even if he doesn’t show his face, he could use his voice to give a message to the Iranian people,” Avraham said. “But that could make him vulnerable. It’s possible to glean information from the voice file, such as the type of recorder used and possibly the location where the voice was recorded.” A former senior US defence official said: “I am quite sure, given [the airstrike] on February 28, that Mojtaba is practising much better operational security and, as a result, human intelligence will be more important in the hunt for him. “I am sceptical about US humint since Iran has been a denied area for 40 years. Israeli human intelligence is clearly much better but it also has its limits.” If Mossad and the CIA manage to establish Mojtaba’s whereabouts, political leaders in the US and Israel will have to decide how to act on the information. A former leading US intelligence official summed up their dilemma: “I think we have probably dispatched enough Iranian leaders for the time being, unless there is very strong confidence that the current leader will be replaced by someone committed to a democratic future for Iran and who will ride in on a white horse.”

Tump's Qatari Air Force One scandal

When the Pentagon took possession of the gifted Qatari Boeing 747-8 airliner to convert into Donald Trump's temporary Air Force One - more luxury, less security - it was clear to all aviation experts that the plan to rush the new plane into use in less than a year for a mere $400 million was far-fetched, impractical, and potentially risky for the president. The Pentagon denied it and said the Qatari Air Force One would have all the relevant security features to make it safe for the president to use as his Air Force One wherever he went. Now we know this was simply not the case. When Trump took it to the Nato summit in Ankara, he was advised not to board it for the return journey because of fears of a possible Iranian-inspired attack on the plane. Why the concern? Because Trump's luxurily-fitted plane didn't have anti-missile defences. With a $400 millio price tag for the conversion of the Qatari plane, there wasn't enough money to install such crucial defensive systems. Clearly, the Secret Service was appalled which is why Trump had to return to Washington from Ankara on his old Air Force One which does have anti-missile systems and all the other security features which make it safe for the president to use in any part of the world. Now, surprise, surprise, the Quatari-gifted plane has been returned to the workshop for the full security adaptation. If it hadn't been for the fantastic stories by the New York Times, none of this would have materialised. But the story I wrote for The Times way back when Trump first accepted the Qatari gift said this: it would require at least $1 billion for the conversion work, all the crucial saftey features would be needed and it would take at least two years to get it done, all of which has proved to be right on the ball! PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER. WATERSTONES, ROWANVALE BOOKS, AMAZON

Trump's doubtful nuclear deal with Saudi Arabia

President Trump always had this dream of uniting all the Arab countries behind Israel in opposition to Iran. It still remains a dream. Last week, as part of this scheme for the whole region, the president announced he had agreed to transfer nuclear technology to Saudi Arabia, but then made it clear it was dependent on the royal kingdom agreeing to full diplomatic relations with Israel. One imagines that for the Saudi government this could be a condition too far, certainly at this time. Saudi Arabia has always insisted that any diplomatic agreement with Israel would only be possible once there is a deal going ahead for a Palestinian state. Israel under Benjamin Netanyahu is opposed to a Palestinian state, and Israeli soldiers are still occupying more than half of Gaza where peace is as fragile as ever. The other challenge for Trump is that the war with Iran is showing no sign of ending. Indeed, in recent days, the violence has escalated with US strikes every night on Iranian military targets and reciprocal attacks by Iran against countries in the Gulf region. The Houthis in Yemen, financed and supported by Iran, have now also rejoined the fight and have targeted Saudi oil tankers transiting the Red Sea. The escalation in the war has driven up oil prices to $100 a barrel, raising new concerns about the cost of living in the US and around the world. The announcement about the transfer of nuclear technology to Saudi Arabia provoked immediate concerns that at some time in the future, the Saudis might try to produce a nuclear bomb if they can learn the process of enriching uranium. Trump has said an agreement for the transfer of technology would not allow any future move to acquire nuclear weapons. Nevertheless, the timing of the announcement is not helpful when the president keeps on repeating that Iran must never be allowed to have a nuclear bomb. The broader question is whether Trump’s vision of a united Middle East is either practical or feasible in the current circumstances. The president himself has blamed Israel for any hostility towards the Israeli government around the world, citing the military action taken against Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon which have caused widescale deaths of civilians. It is difficult to see how an Arab country, such as Saudi Arabia, will contemplate lining up diplomatically with Israel while these attacks continue. The president started implementing his dream during his first term in office when Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates signed a deal to have full relations with Israel. It was called the Abraham Accords.Trump wants the Abraham Accords to embrace other Arab countries in his second term in office. But if the war in Iran and the Israeli action in Gaza and Lebanon continue, the chances of that happening are not hopeful.

Is Trump preparing for a big escalation in the war with Iran?

We have now had more than ten days of US raids on Iranian military targets, aimed at degrading the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' ability to attack ships in the Strait of Hormuz. But it's still not having the affect Trump is looking for which is a full backdown by Tehran and a return to negotiations. As a consequence, I think there is now a strong chance that Trump will up the ante and focus far more on the IRGC itself. This might even involve a temporary landing of troops in Iran to destroy an IRGC stronghold. If this happens, it will be seen as the biggest escalation of the war and a dangerous one because of the rik of casualties on the American side. But something has to happen. The US can't just launch raids every night on the same old targets - air defence systems, communications sites, maritime units, drone storage sites etc for months and months. A new phase must surely be coming, unless Tehran suddenly caves in and begs to go back to Switzerland for talks. There has been no begging so far, whatever Trump claims. So, my prediction is, watch out, Iran. Something bigger is about to happen that could send the IRGC reeling.

Trump warns he will hit bridges and power plants in Iran for every ship targeted in the Gulf

Donald Trump has vowed in the past to destroy Iranian civilisation. No one believed he really meant it. Now, however, he has told Iran via his Truth Social platform that every time the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps fires at a ship in the Strait of Hormuz he will order his military to bomb a bridge or a power plant. This time I think he means it. A lot of commentators have pointed out that deliberately targeting a civilian infrastructure site is a breach of the Geneva Convention. But then, surely, so is deliberately targeting a commercial ship trying to go about its business in an international waterway. So, unlawful or not under international law, the message from Trump might, just might, make Tehran think again about hitting ships. It probably won't because the IRGC which runs the country can't bear the thought of giving into Trump. So, more ships will be hit by missiles and drones. This means that in the next week or so, Iran is going to lose a handful of bridges and power plants. This is brinkmanship at its worst. One can only say, thank God Iran doesn't have a nuclear weapon because by now we would be in a nuclear stand-off.

War with Iran is getting bigger and bigger

So much for the much-trumpeted 60-day ceasefire. We had a few days of non-violence and then Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps attacked two ships in the Gulf and now every day it's war. If it goes on much longer both sides will run out of missiles and drones and bombs. The war is also expanding, with the Houthis in Yemen, always ready for a scrap, now intending to carry out their own blockade of Saudi Arabia. The US will have to deal with it which means taking warships and fighter aircraft away from the war with Iran. What must Israel be thinking right now? Netanyahu probably wants to get involved again, even though the Israeli military are still busy with Gaza and Hezbollah.The new British prime minister Andy Burnham is already under pressure from Trump to allow UK bases to be used for bombing Iran. Will Burnham reverse Keir Starmer's decision to allow only defensive strikes to go ahead from the bases? It seems unlikely unless Burnham is desperate to curry favour with Trump. So, for the moment, Europe is staying out of the war but might this change? Again, I think it's unlikely. Europe wants a negotiated end to the war and will continue to refuse to go to Trump's aid. But diplomacy for now is out of the window.When is the war ever going to stop?

Iran's deep-bunkered weapons sites are frustrating Trump

American bombs, cruise missiles and latest state of the art drones have laid waste to Iranian bridges, coastal defences, control towers and other military installations in the past week. But even as President Trump threatens to escalate the war and hit his enemy ever harder, Iran has so far proved capable of retaliating with its own strikes. Iran is relying on its survival as a military power, capable of confronting the US, on a network of underground “missile cities” and a developing nuclear site buried so deep in a mountain no American bomb can reach it. These deep, bunkered facilities stand between victory for Trump and a long drawn-out war which no one wins. In one of several interviews last week, the president declared the US would soon be targeting the nuclear complex known as “Pickaxe Mountain”, which is an affront to his demand that Iran should never pursue a nuclear weapon. Trump said the site buried under a granite mountain would receive “a nice big fat shot right in the front door”. The underground site, formally known as Kuh-e Kolang Gaz La (Kolang meaning pickaxe) is not yet operational but is located immediately southwest of Natanz, one of three nuclear sites hit by the US and Israel in Operation Midnight Hammer in June last year. So far, Pickaxe Mountain has not been targeted, even though US intelligence believes it’s being built to produce gas centrifuges for enriching uranium to weapons-grade level and for the enriching process itself. It has two pairs of extensively hardened entrances, east and west, and the caverns below where nuclear production work could be carried out are estimated to be more than 100 metres deep (about 330ft). Trump’s reference to hitting the site “in the front door” suggests any attack would aim to seal off the entrances rather than try to penetrate deep enough to demolish the underground caverns. The US air force has only one conventional bomb type capable of reaching deeply-buried facilities. But the 30,000lb GBU-57 massive ordnance penetrator (MOP), dropped by B-2 stealth bombers on Natanz and the two other nuclear sites at Fordow and Isfahan last year, can penetrate “only” an estimated 200ft underground. “An attack on Pickaxe Mountain could target the above-ground incoming power supply lines, the location of ventilation shafts [which is what the B-2s targeted in the attacks on the three other sites in June last year] and the open tunnel entrances,” the Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security predicted. “We’re watching Pickaxe Mountain very closely,” Trump said in the interview with Hugh Hewitt, a conservative talk show host on Salem Radio. “We’re going to take out Pickaxe Mountain. Tell the Iranians to be ready.” However, even with its now limited stock of MOPs - 14 out of an existing stock of around 20 were used up in Operation Midnight Hammer – the US military cannot guarantee putting Pickaxe Mountain out of action for very long. The same challenge has been found with Iran’s deeply-buried missile cities, dozens of underground sites located around the country where medium-range and short-range ballistic missiles and launchers are housed. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps aerospace force stores the missiles in multi-level tunnel systems, many of them also buried in mountains. Iran last week released a video showing two IRGC commanders (now both dead), touring the tunnels in one of the underground cities, seen lined with missiles and launchers. Previous footage on state media has shown extensive tunnels where stockpiles of weapons are stored. During more than a week of strikes, US Central Command has said its attacks would “degrade” Iran’s missile and drone capabilities. But the large-scale retaliatory attacks launched by Iran against Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Jordan and elsewhere in the Middle East, have demonstrated that the IRGC’s longstanding plans for war have paid off.