It's Trump and Putin versus Zelensky and Europe

Donald Trump has clearly decided that he wants to do business with Putin, and Ukraine, like for Moscow, is in the way. It seemed likely from the start when Trump won a second term that this was the way it would end up. Trump, remember, said he would end the war in Ukraine on his first day back in the White House. What he had in mind was a quick phone call to Putin, agree the way forward and then tell Zelensky, "accept or you are on your own". It didn't happen that way for one reason or another. But now, here we are back in the same groove. Trump intends to do a deal with Putin, and Zelensky better watch out if he turns it down. There is no way Europe can fill the gap sufficiently if the US backs off totally. So, European leaders who have pledged eternal support for Kyiv will also have to back down. When this happens is not yet clear but the wheels are in motion. Trump will give Zelensky, or preferably a new leader if he can fix it, a security guarantee for the future provided the land Putin wants is handed over. This is effectively the deal Trump has been after from the beginning. He keeps on saying Zelensky could have had this deal years ago. So, in other words, it's all his (Zelensky's) fault. Will Ukraine ever agree to sign up to such a deal? Zelensky will never sign anything that gives territory to Putin on a plate. So, if Trump pushes ahead with his plan, Zelensky's days are numbered. Will the Ukrainian people, and more importantly, will the Ukrainian military who have lost so many lives on the battlefieled, be ready to sign up to this Trump deal? Everyone in Ukraine wants peace, but, surely not by surrendering to the leader whose army invaded their country.

Steve Witkoff says Putin is "a humanitarian"

Steve Witkoff, President Trump's special envoy for everything, is a billionaire business friend but he has certainly learned the art of diplomacy as he goes about the world trying to stop wars on behalf of the White Office. Today he has met with Putin in St Petersburg and to his face told the Russian leader he thought he was "a humanitarian". This will have come as a surprise to the Ukrainian people who have died in their hundreds of thousands following the invasion by Russian troops of their sovereign country more than four and a half years ago. To be fair to Witkoff, the remark was in a different context. Putin had agreed, after an appeal from Trump, to free Stephen Hubbard, a 74-year-old American citizen who was jailed after supposedly being detained while fighting the Russians in Ukraine. Witkoff used the word humanitarian to thank Putin for releasing the prisoner who is now on his way home. Nevertheless, most people would hesitate to use such a word when addressing the man who ordered the invasion in February 2022 and is continuing to authorise his military to target Ukrainian cities every night with drones and ballistic missiles. The only hope is that the release of Stephen Hubbard might just possibly be a precursor to a general move to end the war finally. Praising Putin for his humanity, in that wider context, might end up being a clever move to keep Putin sweet and encourage him to look more favourably on a peace settlement.

Could the Three Big Leaders resolve Ukraine?

Putin and Trump and Xi all sitting together round a table to discuss the war in Ukraine, trade, nuclear weapons etc etc. It all sounds like global politics on a stick. But if the leaders of Russia, the US and China try and work out a way of stopping the war in Ukraine, it's not going to be pretty for the Kyiv government. In fact, it makes no sense at all. Ukraine was invaded by its neighbour, Russia, and so Ukraine must be at the negotiating table to end the war. It can't be any other way. But things have moved on in recent months. Trump seems to be sick of Ukraine, especially its leader, Volodymyr Zelensky, and it would suit him to impose a settlement, so that he can cross Ukraine off the list of foreign problems. Bizarrely, Trump has suggested that if he does meet Putin and Xi Zinping - probably in Beijing - he wouldn't need to talk about Ukraine because Russia wasn't doing very much at the moment! Has Trump not seen the news every day? Russia has been relentlessly bombing Ukraine's power plants every night and much of the country is in darkness. I think a trilateral summit between the US, Russia and China is not a bad thing. But if it goes ahead solely to talk about Ukraine, nothing will be achieved. Kyiv and Europe, too, have to be involved.

Be nice to Putin and he will do a deal!

There is a new strategy in the White House for dealing with President Putin. If you are nice to him, he will immediately back away from aggression in Ukraine and agree to a peace deal. That is the only conclusion one can reach following Donald Trump's decision to lift a whole bunch of sanctions against Russia. Trump said it was part of a process to move towards a settlement. In other words, offer a carrot instead of a stick to Putin. Putin's response? He ordered massive targeting of Ukraine's energy plants overnight, turning out the lights and turning off heating for hundreds of thousands of people. No, Mr Trump, giving a juicy carrot to Putin has the opposite effect. He will take the lifting of sanctions, thank you so much, but he has no intention of giving anything in return. Why should he? He's doing fine because he has Trump on his side. Putin only responds to strength. Before the Trump move, fixed without Congress approval, the view held by most experts, military and civilian, was that the only way Ukraine could force Russia to the negotiating table was to achieve such effective results on the battlefield that Putin would have no alternative but to seek a deal before he lost everything he had gained from the invasion of Ukraine. But the lifting of sanctions, even if temporary, gives Putin a new lease of life. He can now hammer away at Ukraine throughout the winter until, as he hopes, Kyiv begs for mercy. This is not going to happen. But it's hardly surprising Zelensky is so angry with his one-time friend in the White House.

Parisienne-style war

There may be no drones or ballistic missiles involved, but Paris today looks like it has been hit by a deadly enemy force. Buildings destroyed, shops on fire and looted, streets littered with the detritus of violent protests. Everyone loves Paris. Just walking on the pavements and stopping for a coffee or baguette and watching people go by. It's a wonderful city. But it is being destroyed by thousands of protestors who are not satisfied with just peaceful demonstrations against their government. They have to destroy and loot and put fear into the city streets. There is a long history of violent protest in Paris and other French cities. But what is going on right now throughout France is a terrible indictment of how governments have failed young people who go to schools that are overcrowded and under-funded, they cannot get jobs and face futures without hope of fulflling dreams. This is the case pretty much here in the UK as well, but so far - and please don't let it happen - there are no riots. But it could happen. Young people need to have hope of a better future. In France, it seems hope has died. But violence of any kind, especially as witnessed in French cities, is never justified or excusable.

Katie Zacharia outed by the media

Becoming press secretary to President Donald Trump is hard enough but to accept that job when you know you have skeletons in the cupboard which will get out is like being a matador facing a ferocious bull without his muleta - the red cloak he swings in the raging animal's path to distract him. Katie Zacharia arrived in front of the White House press corps on her first day as Trump's press secretary without any form of protection. In fact, from the moment she opened her mouth, you knew she was going to be in serious trouble with the baying press corps. It was brutal to watch. She claimed to be a lawyer but it turned out she wasn't. She had failed her bar exam - in China - and althougb she has a law degree she has no other credential that allow her to be described as a practising attorney. Attorney, she ain't. That and the fact she couldn't string words together properly and only managed to answer three questions. Then, lto ater, she appeared on Fox News before the arch interrogator, Sean Hannity, and fell into a deep hole. Again, it was brutal. Trump showed he has a kind side to him because he literally invited her to step down if she wasn't happy. So, she did, after just five days in the post. The lesson? Never take on the media unless you are really sure of yourself and totally sure your credentials for the job will stand up to scrutiny.

Trump finds Putin easier than Zelensky

I really do think Volodymyr Zelensky has the most difficult job in the world, bar none. He has to keep Donald Trump sweet while the US president is constantly kicking him in the nether regions. He has now almost criticised Trump for backing Putin after the extraordinary decision to buy Russian diesel to make up for shortages in America. But he can't come out and slam Trump because Ukraine relies on the US to provide intelligence and missile interceptors to stay alive. Now Trump has said that he finds Putin much easier to deal with than Zelensky. But that's hardly surprising. When he deals with Putin he talks to him like a fellow leader on the world stage and asks him for favours - ie the diesel deal. When he talks to Zelensky, he has to deal with a stubborn leader who wants to save his country from extinction and Trump finds that irritating. He wants a clear-cut deal to end the war. Putin gets what he wants, territorially, and Ukraine gets some sort of vague security arrangement with the US. Meanwhile, Trump is outraged that Ukraine has restarted hitting Russian oil installations but says nothing about Putin doing exactly the same to Ukraine's energy plants. All Zelensky can do is rush around Europe to make sure the Europeans are still on side. It's deja vue every month. This war is just not going to end.