Trump will never be able to declare victory in Iran

The first six months of the war with Iran have been a sombre lesson for the United States and for its commander-in-chief. President Trump’s Operation Epic Fury has failed to bring down the regime in Tehran because the White House and military planners underestimated their enemy. After months of bombing destruction, a naval blockade and unprecedented economic sanctions, the mullahs and generals in Iran have adapted their warfare response to undermine and eventually thwart America’s vast superiority in firepower. “Iran’s strongest strategy was not to win a conventional military contest against the United States or Israel. It was to make the war harder to contain,” Neda Bolourchi, a national security analyst, concluded in an assessment of the conflict for the prestigious Modern War Institute at West Point in New York state. “Persian Gulf capitals, shipping insurers, energy markets, fertiliser markets, data centres, US allies and domestic political audiences all became part of the battlefield,” she wrote. The US military planners knew there was a risk Iran would try to close the Strait of Hormuz as one of its main leverages against the armada of warships and missiles assembled by Central Command in the region. However, the aim of Operation Epic Fury was to cause such damage to Iran’s military infrastructure that one of two consequences would follow: the collapse of the regime or a peace deal weighted heavily in favour of Trump’s demands for an end to the nuclear programme, a huge reduction in Iran’s ballistic missile inventory, and a pledge by Tehran to stop funding its proxy militia, including Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthis in Yemen. “As in Vietnam, we simply did not understand our enemy in Iran. The assumption that the leadership that succeeded Ayatollah Ali Khomeini would fold like an old tent proved fundamentally wrong,” a former senior Pentagon official said. “Strategy matters. We apparently had no Plan B if the initial air campaign failed to produce the desired results,” the former official said. “There are numerous options we could have put in place before going to war, such as a blockade [imposed more than a month after Operation Epic Fury began], support for resistance groups, or ground-force operations.,” he said. “We are also at the wrong end of the cost equation. We are defending ourselves with weapons costing an order-of-magnitude or more than those they intercept [a Patriot interceptor missile costs $3.9 million as opposed to an Iranian Shahed-136 drone at between $20,000 and $50,000} . Nor can we produce them at scale. And our national deficit just hit $40 trillion. We are pricing ourselves out of the market,” he said. The ground-troops option was never realistically on the cards because of America’s aversion to battlefield casualties. The decision to go for air and naval power, rather than boots on the ground, was to avoid American fatalities, although 18 US personnel have been killed in Iranian retaliatory strikes. Central Command still sent 2,200 marines and later more than 2,000 paratroopers from 82nd Airborne Division to the Gulf, in addition to the 50,000 troops already in the region.. All of them have been kicking their heels ever since. Trump’s threats to invade Kharg Island, which manages up to 90 per cent of Iran’s crude oil exports, never materialised into action by the marines or paratroopers, whose numbers were insufficient for even a short-term ground operation. The biggest lesson for the US is one that should have been learned a long time ago: that air power alone, even on the scale the American military can provide, rarely leads to a long-lasting and satisfactory political outcome. If the confrontation with Iran escalates into a new round of US military strikes, that basic lesson will still be valid which means Trump will never be able to declare victory. ends

Looking back at the Iran war with frustration

Donald Trump had every expectation that a mighty show of American firepower from the air and from the sea would make Iran tremble and plead for mercy. He was wrong. The one thing learned is that the regime in Tehran has an infinite capacity to absorb pain and survive in power. There seems to be no likelihood that this situation will change now or ever. The first six months of the confrontation have proved that the Tehran regime is so intent on staying in power, never mind the consequences for the 90 million Iranian people, that it doesn't seem to matter what Trump throws at them, whether it be bombs and missiles or economic sanctions. Iran also knows that it has China's back, and Russia's. So with these two big beasts on their side, the Iranian generals who are largely in charge, will battle on. This is seriously bad news for Trump who has tried everything and ultimately has failed to get the regime in Tehran to bow down to his demands. There would seem to be no prospects for any kind of peace settlement. So the confrontation, whether military or not, will just keep going. Perhaps for years. In other words, beyond Trump's presidency into the next one, whoever succeeds him.

China won't help Trump's economic war against Iran

Donald Trump needs China to play ball if his economic D-Day operation against Iran is going to work and drive the Tehran regime to the negotiating table. China is Iran's biggest trading partner, buying a huge proportion of Iranian oil. But China is not going to play ball. China never plays ball unless it's in its interest. I assume Trump was warned about this before he got his Treasury Secretary to announce the new sanctions against Iran and ordered all of Iran's trading partners to obey the new economic measures. China, I'm sure, will continue to trade with Iran. Other countries, too, will also risk Trump's sanctions and back Iran. So, like the military campaign, the economic campaign is not going to make such a difference if China and others just carry on as usual. Trade wars and tit-for-tat trade wars invariably make things worse, not better. Trump is due to see the Chinese leader, Xi Zinping, next month, and he won't want to screw that up before he even gets to Beijing. So D-Day might be a flop, although Scott Bessent, Treasury Secretary, seems pretty confident it will bring the mullahs and generals to their knees. But after years of international sanctions, Iran has learned how to get round them, just as North Korea has done all these years.

Why tell the world the UK is giving missile blueprints to Ukraine?

Why on earth has Andy Burnham, newish UK prime minister, announced to the world that he has approved giving missile blueprints to Ukraine so that Kyiv can make its own version of the weapon? Sure, it's good to remind Vladimir Putin that the West is on Ukraine's side. But something which should have been kept secret has been blurted out like it's intended as a slap in the face for the Kremlin. Good on yer, some might say. But the most important responsibility for Burnham is to keep this country safe, not Ukraine's, and telling Putin that the UK is handing classified blueprints to Kyiv seems to me to be foolish at the very least. Putin is already targeting Britain with cyber warfare, close-in submarines and warships. Why invite mnore aggression from Moscow? The blueprints are for components of the UK's Storm Shadow cruise missile which was jointly developed with the French who call it Scalp Mrk 2. It's a pretty fancy piece of kit which has been used by Ukraine since 2023 anbd is now regularly fired at targets inside Russia. The plan is for Kyiv to have its own factory churning out Storm Shadow/Scalps. But why the huge publicity? The first thing Russia will do is start hitting the factory. There are occasions when secrecy is justified. This is one of them.

US and Iran should do a deal

It's time for Washington and Tehran to stop threatening each other with military and economic action. Everyone in the world is fed up with the bickering and warnings and blackmail. It's all about ego and power abd status and money. Enough! Negotiators should get together and talk talk talk until a deal is done. The way things are going, the military bit of the war is going to start all over again and will make a deal that much more difficult. There is stillhuge US firepower in the region and Donald Trump might just have another bash but we know for sure that Iran will respond in kind by attacking US bases in the region and targeting energy plants in the Gulf. All pointless destruction for no reason other than to prove to Trump that the new regime in Tehran is not going to back down. Basically, the war was avoidable. There was a kind of deal on the table but Trump ignored it. Now he is stuck in an unholy mess and talking of an economic D-Day against Iran. The poor Iranian people, none of whom want this war to continue ruining their lives, will suffer even more. But they have leaders, both clerical and military, who don't care a fig for their personal suffering. All they want is to survive as a regime and mastermind hatred towards the US and the West. It really is time for all this hatred and revenge to be brought to a close. But I fear the presence of Trump in the White House and the bullies of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in Tehran are going to make a deal impossible. This is a catastrophe for the world.

Prince Harry and Prince William are like non-brothers

Harry and Meghan are hoping that their return to Britain to live and educate their children will bring them back into the royal family fold. But there is one huge obstacle in the way. Harry apparently hasn't spoken to his brother, William, for years. William is so angry with his brother for breaching every royal protocol going that he has cut himself off from his exiled sibling. Once Harry is back, will William make any effort to reunite with his brother or will he cold-shoulder him and Meghan for ever? King Charles will probably try to intervene between his two sons to stop this huge divide, but the Prince of Wales is his own man and he might fight against his father's efforts. Also, Katherine and Meghan cannot endure each other, judging by what has happened in the past between the two sisters-in-law. Meghan and Kate are totally different human beings and I think it's fair to say that while Kate is loved by the public, Meghan is not. This is going to make life very difficult for both Harry and Meghan when they set up home in the countryside outside London, probably near where Charles has his beloved home in Gloucestershire. Could they even be sort of neighbours? But even if their change in geography makes it possible for the King to get to know his two grandchildren - the son and daughter of Harry and Meghan - it looks highly unlikely that Prince William and Kate will be making trips to the H and M new home for fun get-togethers. I fear it's all too late. There's too much animosity between the two brothers.

Prince Harry has to pay his share of legal damages

The troubles for Prince Harry just keep on coming. Having lost his case against Associated Newspapers, publishers of the Daily Mail, failing to impress the judge that the newspaper had used criminal and devious ways to breach his private life and that of his family, he now has to pay his share of more than £9 million in legal costs. Harry is a wealthy man but this will be a huge blow to his finances, just when he is in the process of buying or renting a mansion somewhere in the countryside back in England while apparently continuing to pay for his and Meghan's posh estate in California and their holiday home in Portugal. Harry was left a lot of money by his mother, Princess Diana, and by his grandmother, Queen Elizabeth, so his bank balance is not exactly empty. Nevertheless, with no regular income from employment, apart from Meghan's housewifery television programmes, things could get a little tight for the couple. Perhaps he hopes that by moving to England, King Charles will give him a bob or two to help him along. I somehow doubt it.