Who to believe, the US or Iran, over the negotiations?

Ever since the negotiations between the US and Iran began, whether directly or through intermediaries (Pakistan, Qatar), we have seen conflicting reports of what has or has not been achieved. The US makes big claims, and Iran denies them. Vice President JD Vance claimed yesterday that the Tehran negotiators had agreed to allow international nuclear inspectors into Iran to monitor all suspected nuke programmes. Iran said this wasn't true. Who are we to believe? It's actually the same old story. The Iranian negotiators might say something privately to someone, whether to Vance or to the Pakistan prime minister, but then in public says the opposite. What matters as far the rest of us is concerned is the public statement because that is how Iran works. The public statements are the ones that matter. So even when Donald Trump claims the Iranians have said privately that they will do this or do that, it only counts when a formal statement is made in public, and that more often than not contradicts what some Iranian negotiator might have whispered into someone's ear during negotiations. The US behave in a different way. When Trump makes bold claims about what Iran has agreed to do during private discussions, they turn out to be "in your dreams" remarks. So, for example, Trump said Iran had agreed to hand over the 440 kilograms of highly-enriched uranium and that the US and Iran would work together to dig out the material in canisters from deep underground where they were buried by the B-2 bombing in June last year. Tehran said they never agreed to that. So, this is what we have to put up with for the next 60 days or, claims from both sides which clash. The lesson is to listen to what Iran says publicly because that is when the supreme leader and his military backers have agreed what to make public. All the supposed private stuff doesn't really matter.

Trump challenged by Iran and algae

It's going to be tough-going for Donald Trump to get a final settlement with Iran that looks and seems better than the one signed by Barack Obama in 2015 without firing a shot. So far, from the 60-day talks in Switzerland, the discussions are all about exactly the same things that Obama's negotiating team talked about, with the big exception that Iran has found its super-leverage card in the Strait of Hormuz and neither side has yet got down to the nitty-gritty details vis a vis Tehran's nuclear programme. And yet already the US has temporarily lifted a whole bunch of sanctions and allowed Iran to export oil which means that the new regime in Tehran has won a huge bonus just from day one of the Switzerland talks. How many more goodies is the US going to grant Tehran? No wonder the Republicans in Congress are beginning to feel uneasy about the war and the aftermath. American taxpayers will also be asking why Iran is benefting so much from the talks while the cost of living for them is still high and causing suffering. This is all bad news for Trump and now he has been hit by the algae problem, the spreading green on the famous Reflecting Pool in Washington DC which should be super-blue. The millions of dollars spent on updating the pool appear to have been wasted. The algae is back and the blueness has gone. One poor duck has already died sipping the water. All Trump needs now is for the ballroom he is building at the eastern end of the White House to go pear-shaped. It's already massively over budget. Perhaps the golden look he is creating will turn green, like the Reflecting Pool.

Trump can't bomb Iran again

Since the much-criticised Memorandum of Understanding was signed by the US and Iran, Donald Trump has at least three times said that if a final settlement is not reached to his satisfaction he can always go back to bombing Iran. Everyone knows, probably even Trump, that this is not true. Now that the peace momentum, if there is a peace momentum, is underway, the option of returning to bombing has gone for good. What would it achieve anyway? Just more death and destruction and therefore more money will have to be raised to help Iran reconstruct. Also, it wouldn't look very good if Trump just reverted to bombing every time the negotiations are beginning to look a bit fragile. Iran will just bury itself in its bunker and refuse to continue negotiating and probably do its best to rush for a nuclear bomb, although that would be impossible at the moment because so much was destroyed by the US and Israeli bombing of nuclear plants in June last year. No, Trump's only option now is diplomacy and keep fingers crosssed that the mullahs and generals in Tehran will be ready to do a deal of sorts. So, that's a win for Iran. Meanwhile, the Iranian negotiators continue to use the other winning card they possess - citing Lebanon and Israel's continuing strikes against Hezbollah as the key element, as far as they are concerned, in the negotiations. If Tehran is happy with the progress made it's because they know they have screwed Trump over Israel's actions in Lebanon. Trump knows that however much he swears at Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli leader will carry on targeting Hezbollah every time Hezbollah targets Israel.

Iran has all the cards as talks begin

The negotiators from Tehran gathering in Switzerland for the beginning of talks with the US to forge an overall long-term deal will be super-confident that they hold the cards. This is because the main card in Donald Trump's hands is the bombing card but he doesn't really have that anymore because if he starts bombing again, the whole deal will crash and we will be back to square one. Whereas Iran has the Strait of Hormuz card, which will remain its best leverage for ever. Also, the Iranian foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, one of the two main negotiators, has all the wealth of experience of negotiating on behalf of Tehran for the nuclear deal agreed under the Obam administrion in 2015. He knows his nukes much much better than any of the American negotiators. He has all the technical stuff in his head. His fellow negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of the Iranian parliament and a former commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. knows his onions, too, and won't conceded anything which might weaken the power of the IRGC. So, JD Vance who seems to spend more time writing books than performing as vice president, and the other two negotiators, Steve Whitkoff, Trump's business buddy, and Jared Kushner, the president's son-in-law, know more about business ventures and property than the intricacies of diplomacy. All in all, these talks in Switzerland are going to cement in all the goodies already promised in the memorandum of understanding - sanctions relief, unfreezing of Iranian funds and the $300 billion reconstruction fund - while failing probably to get a fullproof nuclear deal. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER. AMAZON, WATERSTONES, ROWANVALE BOOKS.

The Lebanon question is going to ruin the Iran deal

The Lebanon issue is striking back. Iran has been very clever. By insisting that Israel's war with Hezbollah in Lebanon has to be linked inextricably with the Trump/Iran deal, it means every time there is violence in Lebanon, the Iranians take revenge, by closing the Strait of Hormuz again - like they have today - or refusing to start discussions in the 60-day phase of the negotiations to conclude a final settlement. This puts all the emphasis on Israel to stop bombing Hezbollah. But if Hezbollah attacks Israel, Israel will attack Hezbollah, Benjamin Netanyahu has made that clear. So it goes on. The Trump/Iran deal is so fragile, it could collapse any day. But the clever thing is that Iran can then blame Israel, when in fact it's just as much Iran's fault because the mullahs have failed to rein in Hezbollah. But Trump will be so angry he will also blame Israel. Yes, the leaders of the Iranian regime have been very clever. They have outsmarted everyone.

Trump battles to persuade his critics that the Iran deal is good

Republican heavyweights, newspaper columnists and broadcasters have all given the thumbs down to Donald Trump's deal with Iran. Israel hates it. The Gulf states don't like it, Western leaders praised Trump when they met him for the G7 meeting but they probably didn't mean it. They praised him because they were desperate to get back on side with him and keep him happy. So, Trump has a helluva battle on his hands to try and prove to the world that he has engineered the best possible deal with the regime in Tehran. The only way, it seems, he can do that is by making the next 60 days the toughest of all for Tehran so that when all the details have been agreed on the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions-lifting and the nuclear question, Tehran will be seen to have taken its medicine and the US can claim to have won the arguments. That, unfortunately, looks pretty unlikely. There is already so much that is good for Tehran in the Memorandum of Understanding, now signed by Trump, that the future detailed agreement may go their way as well. For Trump, he has to show that his negotiating style will get there in the end, and in 60 days' time, the world will feel a safer place. Good luck with that.

Tons of money for Iran if the peace deal is honoured

All the details of the Memorandum of Understanding between Iran and the US are now published, and it shows beyond question that if the Tehran regime behaves itself and adheres to the terms of the agreement, Iran will be flooded with money: a $300 billion investment fund for reconstruction, paid for mostly by Arab states in the Gulf, an unfreezing of £24 billion which had been held in European banks, mostly in Belgium for some reason, and a huge amount of revenue from the sale of oil to anyone who wants it, mostly China, with all sanctions lifted. It's a bonanza for Iran. Their negotiators have done well. As for the Strait of Hormuz, Iran has agreed there will be no tolls or fees for the next 60 days during the next stage of negotiations. But after that Iran and Oman will hold talks about the "management" of the strait for the safe passing of ships through the chokehold. What on earth does that mean? Is there a chance Iran and Oman will be allowed to charge some sort of admin fee in future? If so, that woulld be totally against what Trump and co have been saying ever since the war with Iran began. It would also be counter to international maritime law. Once again, the Iranian negotiators have done exceptionally well to get that sentence into the MoU. Trump will need to do a lot of explaining to the world's shipping companies. Insurance premiums will go up, the cost of oil will be affected and Iran will get richer. The nuke issue will have to be dealt with in the next 60 days as well, not enough time I would have thought to nail down the detail that will have to be negotiated to prevent Iran from ever getting a nuclear weapon.