Proposed Iran deal makes no sense

Iran claims Donald Trump is making excessive demands to bring the war to an end and find a peace settlement. But it's just as much the other way around. The hardliners (aren't they all?) in Tehran are making demands that Trump can never agree to. Princippaly to do with the Strait of Hormuz. The situation at the strait HAS to return to the status quo ante, in other words, a free-flowing shipping route through the chokepoint without any interference from either Iran on one side or Oman on the other. Any final deal that allows the Islamic Revolutionbary Guard Corps to have "management" contrtol of its side of the strait, whether demanding tolls or not, cannot be allowed, not if Trump wants to declare victory over the mullahs in Iran. But this is what is being implied in the one-page memorandum of understanding, or, at least, in the thinking of the Tehran regime and its interpretation of the MoU. Iran, having enjoyed the fruits of control over the strait it doesn't want to give it up. The thought of extracting $1 million a go every time a ship goes through the strait would be like manna from heaven. It would help Iran to rebuild its economy and, possibly, renew its nuclear programme. So, Trump cannot agree to a deal which even hints at Iran benefiting from reopening the strait. He had a meeting in the White House Situation Room on Friday to talk about the MoU but came out after two hours without giving it a nod of approval. So he must have doubts. On the other hand, he is pretty anxious to wrap the whole thing up, whatever he claims about "not rushing" into a settlement. The other thing that makes no sense is the apparent Trump order to lift the naval blockade. This is crazy because it's working and making Tehran desperate. So keep the blockade going until all the dots and dashes have been sorted out.

Nato must stand up to Putin

A Russian (who else could it be?) armed drone flies low over the border into Romania and smashes into the top floors of an apartment block exploding in a ball of flame and injuring two civilians. All Nato has said so far is that it will defend every inch of every alliance member. But actually, that's just words. Romania has been droned by Moscow and has got away with it. It could have been a misfiring by Russia but it looks far more likely to be a deliberate strike to see what Nato would do. Nothing it seems, so Putin will be very happy. Of course its tricky for Nato because they can't just fire off a drone or two at Russia in retaliation, but first and foremost that Russian drone should have been shot down before it reached the Romanian city of Galati, and then examined with great care to prove it was a Russian brand. And then Moscow should have been warned that if they do anything like this again, it will be regarded as an attack on the whole of Nato, and see if that gives Putin a reason to be more cautious next time.

A potential Iran deal in the midst of strikes and counter-strikes

As so often with ceasefires, the violence still carries on. Iran threatens US ships with drones and ballistic missiles, so America takes instant safeguarding action, and then Iran retaliates with strikes on a US base in Kuwait and so on and so on. But amidst all the military action, the negotiators have been getting on with the job of finding a formula for peace. Now, it seems there may be a final draft. But Trump seems to have rejected it as a fabrication. So who knows what is going on. The new draft, just a one-page document, appears to say that Iran and Oman will share the joint management of the Strait of Hormuz to allow all shipping safe passage. But will this include a toll system? Either way, Trump is not going to approve a deal which gives Iran any sort of control over the strait. It didn't exist before the US and Israel attacked Iren on February 28, so the president is never going to go along with Iranian control now. But with Oman on side as joint manager of the strait, may be this could be a concession worth looking at but only if there is a guarantee of free passage for all ships, plus of course, an agreement by Tehran to give up enriching uranium to a high grade. But it may be a step backwards too far for Trump who wants two days to think his thoughts. I guess he will say no, and then what?

Never take our eyes off North Korea

It is one of the most extraordinary things about this world that every so often there is another war and we all think the third world war is about to arrive. So the Russian war against Ukraine and the US/Israel war against Iran have consumed every newspaper, radio and TV station. Death and destruction and lives ruined, people made homeless, despair and desperation and poverty. But all this time, North Korea just carries on developing more and better long-range ballistic missiles, more and more nuclear warheads, more and more long-range artillery systems, cruise missiles and every other type of missile you can imagine. Does anyone do anything about it? No, because it is now what we expect North Korea and its scary leader Kim Jong-un to do. He is building a mighty fortress around his country and you hardly hear a whisper from Washington. Donald Trump has suggested he might have another go at meeting up with his "friend", Kim, but Kim can't be bothered to meet him. All he wants to do is dress up in his fancy leather coat that goes down to his ankles and watch as the latest ballistic and cruise missiles get fired off and then everyone around him claps and fawns over their leader. It's a total anathema, it's a blotch on the planet but it's there and will remain there and the world just gets on with other crises. North Korea is probably one of the gravest threats to world peace but Kim is left alone to get on with it.

The price of peace with Iran

A US/Iran “peace” deal on paper might bring the war to an end but what will it mean for the future of the Middle East, America’s standing in the region and the security of Israel? Even as President Trump’s negotiators and special mediators (Pakistan’s army chief and prime minister), were trying to finalise the wording of the memorandum of understanding laying down the principles of a peace settlement, the idea of a grand-design strategy was already under discussion. A contained or, better still, conciliatory regime in Tehran could make the difference between a future of constant warfare and a region blessed with prosperity and improving relations. At this stage, after a bitter war which has brought death and destruction to more than half a dozen countries in the Gulf region, it might seem overly optimistic to imagine that a tentative deal between Washington and Tehran might lead to a period of genuine stability, even possibly an element of trust between longstanding enemies. It looks out of the question at present with so much rivalry and hatred and enduring ideological differences. However, the Trump administration is intent on expanding the Abraham Accords, the deal that saw the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain sign an agreement to normalise diplomatic relations with Israel ion September 15, 2020, during Trump’s first term. With Israel’s military attacks against Hamas in Gaza and against Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Tel Aviv government's refusal to countenance an independent Palestinian state, any further moves to bring countries such as Saudi Arabia into the Abraham Accords family had to be abandoned. The US/Israel war on Iran, even though supported by Gulf allies fearful of Tehran’s nuclear ambitions, further postponed discussions with Washington over its grand-design concept for the Middle East. First, however, depending on the effectiveness and viability of a peace deal with Iran, the US will need to make key military decisions about its presence in the region over the next few years. It has become an axiom in western diplomatic circles that Iran can never be trusted to act in good faith. As a consequence, the US will have to retain a permanent aircraft carrier strike group in the region and preserve the 50,000 troop levels currently spread out in a number of Gulf nations. For the foreseeable future, while the negotiations continue to find a satisfactory nuclear deal with Tehran, it will be imperative to have all the military assets at a high state of readiness to impress on Tehran the need to reach a long-term agreement on the country’s uranium-enrichment programme. There are currently around 4,400 marines stationed on amphibious assault ships in the Gulf, about 3,000 combat soldiers from 82nd Airborne Division and hundreds of special operations troops, awaiting orders from Trump for action in Iran. They can’t stay there for ever but will have to remain during the proposed 30-day ceasefire extension. However, the US view on what military assets must stay in the region to deter Iran will conflict with the stance adopted by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC). “Iran appears to believe that it is negotiating from a stronger position than the United States and is accordingly attempting to remake the regional order in a way that benefits Iran,” said the Institute for the Study of War in Washington. This suggests that whatever agreement is signed about reopening the Strait of Hormuz, the long-term plan of Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, may be to retain some form of strategic control over the strait. For the purposes of the peace deal with Washington, however, Iran will no doubt initially play ball and reopen the waterway without imposing tolls on shipping, in return for the US lifting its naval blockade of all Iranian ports. The blockade which has involved two dozen US warships and about 150 aircraft, has been remarkably successful: more than 100 commercial ships have been prevented from entering or leaving the ports over the last six weeks. Iran has lost $450 million a day in trade. Admiral Brad Cooper, commander of US Central Command, said the blockade had allowed “zero trade in and out of Iranian ports which has squeezed Iran economically.” Trump has vowed to keep the blockade going because it has been the best leverage against Tehran. But the required quid pro quo – lifting the blockade for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz – will force Admiral Cooper to stand the warships down. Key to guaranteeing the free passage of shipping through the strait in the future will be the presence of a European-led coalition-of-the-willing armada of ships to safeguard all vessels of every nationality. The UK has been in the lead in developing such a coalition. Provided this arrangement is not scuppered by a renewal of Iranian intervention, it could help repair relations between Trump and American allies in Europe which have become frazzled ever since the US launched its war on Iran without consultation on February 28. Trump was angry that European leaders didn’t instantly offer to help in the war on Iran. But if European navies can now play a significant role in ensuring the safety of shipping in the Gulf, Trump might come round to the view that Europe and Nato have a place after all alongside the US. Likewise, the end of the war in Iran would potentially have other positive diplomatic consequences, notably in the Middle East. But that would depend on something which Tehran has been insisting on since the negotiations began, the simultaneous ending of Israel’s war with Hezbollah. Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s leader, has warned Trump that Hezbollah, supported and armed by Iran, would always remain a threat to Israeli security, and that he must have the right to protect his citizens by targeting the designated terrorist group whenever required. This will be a stumbling block for Trump’s dream of wrapping the Abraham Accords around all of America’s Arab allies which he sees as the best way to defend Israel long-term and build opposition to Iran. Ultimately, the goal must be more than just containing Iran. Trump says he has found the new leaders in Iran to be more practically-minded. An Iranian regime more intent on pursuing prosperity for its people than threatening Israel, and the Middle East in general, would be a result Trump could boast about for the rest of his presidential term and beyond.

Trump really does believe a deal with Iran is about to happen

Donald Trump is all smiles today. He is reasonably happy with the way the talks are going to end the war But he is also urging caution to demonstrate that he is not going to rush into a bad deal. He says he doesn't do bad deals ever. Certainly the signs in Tehran and around the Middle East are increasingly hopeful. Of course, as has happened before, it could still all go wrong, but I think this time the rulers in Tehran are keen to negotiate a deal to open the Strait of Hormuz. One problem is the supreme leader, Ayatollah Motjaba Khamenei. Very few people know where he is in hiding, and those that do, have to get messages couriered to him so that he can keep abreast of the state of the negotiations. He has to approve everything personally, and thus there are delays because apparently it can take days for the couriers to reach him. It's a bit like when Osama bin Laden was hiding in his compound in Abbotabad in Pakistan. Al-Qaeda, the terrorist organisation he founded, had to use trusted couriers to pass messages. It was thanks to this system that the CIA was able to track him down. They followed the main courier. Thus, bin Laden was finally traced and taken down. Now I'm not saying the same will happen to Mojtaba Khamenei, but you can bet Israel's Mossad are trying to pinpoint his location via the couriers. But they can't take him out becauae there is a ceasefire and Trump would be furious. He says the current Iranian leaders are more practical to deal with, and I assume that includes the supreme leader. So stay away, Mossad.

US naval blockade was the final nail in Iran's economic coffin

From defiance to a deal, the regime in Tehran has finally come to the conclusion the country cannot survive economically if the US naval blockade continues to slice huge chunks of income from the treasury coffers. The blockade, only imposed after everything else failed to get a peace settlement, has been remarkably successful. Ships going in and out of Iranian ports have been stopped by an array of US guided-missile destroyers. Last night US Central Command issued some fascinating statistics which underline why suddenly Tehran is at last interested in doing a deal with the Americans. Centcom said the warships had "redirected" - ie blocked - more than 100 commercial vessels since the action began on April 13. So, in six weeks, the US warships have stopped all ships entering and leaving the ports. In addition, they have disabled four and allowed 26 humanitarian aid ships to pass. The massive operation has involved both warhsips and aircraft. Centcom said 200 aircraft and warships had taken part - probably about a dozen warships and the rest were aircraft from the two aircraft carriers in the region, the USS Abraham Lincoln and the USS George HW Bush, as well as fighters from the USS Tripoli amphibious ready group, part of the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit. The blockade has targeted vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas. That means every port on the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. Admiral Brad Cooper, commander of Centcom, said the blockade had allowed zero trade into and out of Iranian ports "which has squeezed Iran economically". One estimate is that Iran has lost $450 million in trade every day since the action began. Even the Tehran regime, having done the maths, realised it couldn't go on. So, a deal began to emerge. It's a renarkable achievement by the US Mavy and Marines.