The Pentagon is in a permanent state of topsy-turvyness

There is about as much unity in the Pentagon right now as there is in the Royal Family in Britain. Many officials are either not talking to each other or when they do talk, they shout. The latest victim of this idiotic state of affairs is Dan Driscoll, the now former but extremely capable US Army secretary, the top civilian job in this service. He had just had enough of bashing his head against the brick wall, while trying to persuade Pete Hegseth, the ex-Fox News US War Secretary, to approve his plan to rebuild the army, make it more streamlined and better eqipped, not with tanks and heavy artillery but the latest high-tech stuff, such as drones, bought off the shelf. It all seemed eminently sensible the way wars are now being prosecuted. But Hegseth is obsessed with developing a warrior force that doesn't have women in it or anyone else who isn't a full-grown male, sure of his masculinity and sexuality. Whole layers of experienced army officers have been fired, including the top dog, General Randy George. He was kicked out with no notice and he has yet to be replaced. Tp say that the top echelons of the army, and the other services, are walking on eggshells gives a pretty good idea of the fear and anxiety that Hegseth has caused. Hegseth may be His Master's Voice, but he is causing such outrage in the higher ranks, it's no wonder everyone is fearful of their jobs. Dan Driscoll will be sorely missed. There was a time when his name was being put forward as the next war/defence secretary. Not surprising, perhaps, that Hegseth did everything he could to get rid of him.

Pentagon planning warfare at the speed of light

The drones were seen flying low near the Rio Grande Valley in Texas last week when the Locust shot them from the sky. It was the first time the US Army had used its new laser weapon in anger, destroying targets it claimed were flying in support of Mexican drug cartels. While previously the idea of laser beams replacing surface-to-air missile interceptors was considered to be a science fiction fantasy, laser warfare is becoming a reality. The Pentagon is spending about $1 billion this year on developing a variety of “directed-energy” systems, and several are already operational after more than two decades of research. The relatively low cost of laser defences is the driving factor. The Locust, whose name stands for “Low-Cost UAV Simulation Testing,” was recently sent to Texas to arm the 8,000-strong, Joint Task Force Southern Border, with a “Multipurpose High Energy Laser.” Built by AeroVironment, a defence company based in Arlington, Virginia, the vehicle-mounted weapon is capable of firing 20-kilowatt beams that can physically burn through targets. “Neutralising threats at the speed of light” is how AeroVironment promotes the weapon in a video on its website, showing animated quadcopters tumbling from the sky. The military did not reveal details about its use last week, or whether the drones were shot down over American or Mexican territory. But it stated that the unmanned aircraft had presented “a physical threat” to US military and US Customs and Border Protection personnel. The US Marine Corps has acquired the same mobile Locust system for operational use against small drones, and it has also been mounted on the aircraft carrier, USS George HW Bush, which conducted a successful sea test in October last year. “Using directed-energy weapons, such as this, is part of the future of warfare, and it’s better than us firing a $2 million missile at a [cheap] drone,” a Pentagon official said. Dozens of countries are trying to develop similar directed-energy weapons. The UK has a laser weapon called DragonFire which could be on Royal Navy warships by 2027. China has deployed a truck-mounted laser system and has also put laser weapons on amphibious warships. Russia has a portable anti-drone laser weapon which has been tested in combat conditions. Israel’s 100-kilowatt Iron Beam laser weapon is known to have shot down drones launched by Hezbollah in Lebanon during the current crisis in the Middle East.For the Pentagon, which has used a large proportion of its most expensive weapon systems in the war with Iran, in particular its stocks of anti-missile and anti-drone interceptors, the availability of directed energy weapons has become a priority. Instead of shooting down a $30,000 long-range armed drone with a multi-million-dollar, top-end interceptor like the army’s Patriot system or the navy’s Standard SM-3 missile, one shot from a laser weapon could theoretically cost a few dollars. In its overview of the last defence budget, the Department of War admitted that “peer adversaries” had succeeded in outpacing the US “kinetic weapon magazine depth and production capability with UAS [unmanned aerial systems], missiles, and advanced sensors”. “As threat vectors evolve, directed energy technologies redefine defence, delivering scalable precision and unmatched cost efficiency to secure the battlespace of tomorrow,” the Pentagon said. As well as testing the high-power Locust, the US Navy is already equipping its Arleigh Burke-class destroyers with ODIN (optical dazzling interdictor) and HELIOS (high-energy laser with integrated optical dazzler and surveillance) low-energy weapons, which are designed to blind the sensors and cameras of a drone rather than destroying it. But the ambition is for more power - of a kind that could quickly take out a cruise missile, a large drone or anti-ship missile. The Pentagon’s SCADE CTA (scaled directed energy critical technology areas) programme is aiming to develop a laser of 150 to 500 kilowatts in strength. Admiral Daryl Caudle, US Chief of Naval Operations, said recently he envisaged a megawatt-sized (1,000 kilowatts) laser weapon for the new Trump-class warships announced by the president in December last year. “I don’t think a one-megawatt laser is beyond what should be on that battery,” he said, referring to the battleships. In May, Trump himself posted an AI-generated image of a warship painted with a US flag lasering a drone with an Iranian flag, with the caption: “Lasers: Bing, Bing, GONE!!!” - although there is no such confirmed use of the technology this year. The potential for powerful laser beams to burn through fast-moving targets also poses new challenges, however, including how that power can be focussed and sustained. “One big problem is that weather patterns, such as fog and mist, can affect the tracking and the laser accuracy, and there’s nothing you can do about that,” said Mark Cancian, a former colonel who served three decades in the US Marine Corps and is a senior adviser to the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. “It’s basic physics. Fog and mist and dust can physically interfere with the beam. Lasers are seen as the long-term solution for counter-drone warfare because the price per shot is so low, compared with the huge cost of the systems we currently use to shoot them down. But it has been difficult to operationalise,” he said. “The other challenge is power. The army has a mobile power system but the navy would face a greater demand for power to keep the laser stable over a longer period,” Cancian said. “It’s harder to have an effective laser on a ship because it’s more often the case that the navy would be dealing with a larger missile which means they have to track over an extended time. The laser beam has to be spot on for a long time, whereas the army, for example, might be tracking a quadcopter which can be taken down quickly [like the three drug cartel drones],” he said. Trump is not the first president to enthuse about laser technology. In his famous “Star Wars” speech on March 23, 1983, President Ronald Reagan appealed to America’s scientists to come up with an anti-missile shield in space and on the ground to protect the US from a Soviet nuclear attack. His vision was to have exotic systems, including X-ray and chemical lasers and neutral particle beams positioned on space platforms, to target and burn up incoming nuclear warheads. Ultimately that vision was unaffordable. Trump breathed new life into Reagan’s dream, however, when he ordered the Pentagon to devise a “Golden Dome” missile shield over the US, including the the idea of space-based interceptors. Cost estimates of the Golden Dome have varied from $185 billion over ten years, according to the Pentagon, to $1 trillion, according to the Congressional Budget Office.

US and Iran strike back

A month of relative quiet and now it's back to tit-for-tat strikes. Clearly US Central Command got wind of a plot by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to lay mines in the Strait of Hormuz, so preemptive action was taken and the suspected site for the minelaying was blasted. Then Iran retaliated with strikes on Jordan and the UAE. This is the type of war which can go on for ever. It also shows that the IRGC is going to continue threatening the strait but the military leaders will have learned one lesson. Whenever they plan an attack, the US gets to hear of it. Nothing can be secret. It means it's almost impossible to plan any sort of attack without the US listening in. That should be a considerable deterrent. Yet the IRGC goes ahead with its plans anyway. This demonstrates, not for the first time, that the IRGC is never going to give up, whatever damage is done to Iran's economy through the naval blockade and sanctions. What is perhaps strange is that the US has not focused all its military action on the IRGC itself. I have no idea how many IRGC personnel have been killed in the bombing raids. But it's clear this military organisation feels it can just carry on threatening the strait because it remains and will always remain the best leverage it has against the US.

What is Putin going to do next?

It looks as if Putin is preparing to throw everything - bar nuclear - at Kyiv's energy plants to make sure the winter is a terrible dark experience for the Ukrainian people. There is probably very little Zelensky and the military can do about it. Putin is more desperate than ever because after nearly five years of war against Ukraine, he hasn't got much to show for it. Western experts are warning that in his frustration he might take on a Nato country and launch some form of incursion or mini-offensive to punish the West for backing Ukraine. But if he were to do that, Putin would be in even more trouble. He can't really believe that taking on Nato will improve his situation. So, I think Putin's next move will be to step up attacks on Ukraine by a magnitude, and maybe even send in more troops to restart the ground campaign which has stalemated. What Putin won't do is think about doing a deal with Ukraine. So, any efforts by the US or Europe to fashion some sort of negotiating stance is going to fail. Putin is not interested in peace with Ukraine. He is still determined to see Ukraine, or at least the Zelensky government, collapse. Zelensky has had huge problems, with the continuing evidence of corruption and the dramatic upheavals at the top of his government, after the dismissal of the popular defence minister. He will need to reunite his government and prepare for a tough few months before winter arrives. All the threats from Moscow about attacking Britain for backing Ukraine are just that - threats. Putin is right now in a very weak position and can't afford any more aggressive moves, especially against the Nato alliance.

Will the Venezuelan people benefit from this huge oil deal with the US?

The US is going to have its hands on 65 billion barrels of Venezuelan oil in a huge deal between Caracas and Washington that will bring private American investment into the earthquake-hit country. Ostensibly, this will be good news for the poor country which has been ravaged by corruption and super-corrupt leadership for so long. Ex-President Nicolas Maduro may be in a US jail awaiting trial on drug-trafficking charges. But he left behind the remnants of his power base in charge. The deal has been done with the interim president, Delcy Rodriguez. But will this really be a massive optimism boost for the whole country which is going to suffer from the earthquake damage for years to come? And will all the money be invested in improving the lives of the people or will it get salted away into private bank accounts? It is difficult to predict because the leadership during the Maduro era was awash with corruption. Is Delcy Rodriguez who was Maduro's vice president and therefore must have known what was going on all those years, now going to be the country's saviour? Trump decided that she was a woman he could do business with and this is why we now have this massive oil deal which will provide the US with all the oil reserves it feels it needs for the future. Is there any small print in the deal which offers guarantees that the quid pro quo for the oil will be a much-improved economy in Venezuela and a better standard of living for its people? The people who negotiated the deal were Marco Rubio, the secretary of state, and Pete Hegseth, the defence secretary. A very odd combination unless there is some sort of security guarantee included which we don't know about. The Venezuela story still has an unknown end.

Trump will never be able to declare victory in Iran

The first six months of the war with Iran have been a sombre lesson for the United States and for its commander-in-chief. President Trump’s Operation Epic Fury has failed to bring down the regime in Tehran because the White House and military planners underestimated their enemy. After months of bombing destruction, a naval blockade and unprecedented economic sanctions, the mullahs and generals in Iran have adapted their warfare response to undermine and eventually thwart America’s vast superiority in firepower. “Iran’s strongest strategy was not to win a conventional military contest against the United States or Israel. It was to make the war harder to contain,” Neda Bolourchi, a national security analyst, concluded in an assessment of the conflict for the prestigious Modern War Institute at West Point in New York state. “Persian Gulf capitals, shipping insurers, energy markets, fertiliser markets, data centres, US allies and domestic political audiences all became part of the battlefield,” she wrote. The US military planners knew there was a risk Iran would try to close the Strait of Hormuz as one of its main leverages against the armada of warships and missiles assembled by Central Command in the region. However, the aim of Operation Epic Fury was to cause such damage to Iran’s military infrastructure that one of two consequences would follow: the collapse of the regime or a peace deal weighted heavily in favour of Trump’s demands for an end to the nuclear programme, a huge reduction in Iran’s ballistic missile inventory, and a pledge by Tehran to stop funding its proxy militia, including Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthis in Yemen. “As in Vietnam, we simply did not understand our enemy in Iran. The assumption that the leadership that succeeded Ayatollah Ali Khomeini would fold like an old tent proved fundamentally wrong,” a former senior Pentagon official said. “Strategy matters. We apparently had no Plan B if the initial air campaign failed to produce the desired results,” the former official said. “There are numerous options we could have put in place before going to war, such as a blockade [imposed more than a month after Operation Epic Fury began], support for resistance groups, or ground-force operations.,” he said. “We are also at the wrong end of the cost equation. We are defending ourselves with weapons costing an order-of-magnitude or more than those they intercept [a Patriot interceptor missile costs $3.9 million as opposed to an Iranian Shahed-136 drone at between $20,000 and $50,000} . Nor can we produce them at scale. And our national deficit just hit $40 trillion. We are pricing ourselves out of the market,” he said. The ground-troops option was never realistically on the cards because of America’s aversion to battlefield casualties. The decision to go for air and naval power, rather than boots on the ground, was to avoid American fatalities, although 18 US personnel have been killed in Iranian retaliatory strikes. Central Command still sent 2,200 marines and later more than 2,000 paratroopers from 82nd Airborne Division to the Gulf, in addition to the 50,000 troops already in the region.. All of them have been kicking their heels ever since. Trump’s threats to invade Kharg Island, which manages up to 90 per cent of Iran’s crude oil exports, never materialised into action by the marines or paratroopers, whose numbers were insufficient for even a short-term ground operation. The biggest lesson for the US is one that should have been learned a long time ago: that air power alone, even on the scale the American military can provide, rarely leads to a long-lasting and satisfactory political outcome. If the confrontation with Iran escalates into a new round of US military strikes, that basic lesson will still be valid which means Trump will never be able to declare victory. ends

Looking back at the Iran war with frustration

Donald Trump had every expectation that a mighty show of American firepower from the air and from the sea would make Iran tremble and plead for mercy. He was wrong. The one thing learned is that the regime in Tehran has an infinite capacity to absorb pain and survive in power. There seems to be no likelihood that this situation will change now or ever. The first six months of the confrontation have proved that the Tehran regime is so intent on staying in power, never mind the consequences for the 90 million Iranian people, that it doesn't seem to matter what Trump throws at them, whether it be bombs and missiles or economic sanctions. Iran also knows that it has China's back, and Russia's. So with these two big beasts on their side, the Iranian generals who are largely in charge, will battle on. This is seriously bad news for Trump who has tried everything and ultimately has failed to get the regime in Tehran to bow down to his demands. There would seem to be no prospects for any kind of peace settlement. So the confrontation, whether military or not, will just keep going. Perhaps for years. In other words, beyond Trump's presidency into the next one, whoever succeeds him.

China won't help Trump's economic war against Iran

Donald Trump needs China to play ball if his economic D-Day operation against Iran is going to work and drive the Tehran regime to the negotiating table. China is Iran's biggest trading partner, buying a huge proportion of Iranian oil. But China is not going to play ball. China never plays ball unless it's in its interest. I assume Trump was warned about this before he got his Treasury Secretary to announce the new sanctions against Iran and ordered all of Iran's trading partners to obey the new economic measures. China, I'm sure, will continue to trade with Iran. Other countries, too, will also risk Trump's sanctions and back Iran. So, like the military campaign, the economic campaign is not going to make such a difference if China and others just carry on as usual. Trade wars and tit-for-tat trade wars invariably make things worse, not better. Trump is due to see the Chinese leader, Xi Zinping, next month, and he won't want to screw that up before he even gets to Beijing. So D-Day might be a flop, although Scott Bessent, Treasury Secretary, seems pretty confident it will bring the mullahs and generals to their knees. But after years of international sanctions, Iran has learned how to get round them, just as North Korea has done all these years.

Why tell the world the UK is giving missile blueprints to Ukraine?

Why on earth has Andy Burnham, newish UK prime minister, announced to the world that he has approved giving missile blueprints to Ukraine so that Kyiv can make its own version of the weapon? Sure, it's good to remind Vladimir Putin that the West is on Ukraine's side. But something which should have been kept secret has been blurted out like it's intended as a slap in the face for the Kremlin. Good on yer, some might say. But the most important responsibility for Burnham is to keep this country safe, not Ukraine's, and telling Putin that the UK is handing classified blueprints to Kyiv seems to me to be foolish at the very least. Putin is already targeting Britain with cyber warfare, close-in submarines and warships. Why invite mnore aggression from Moscow? The blueprints are for components of the UK's Storm Shadow cruise missile which was jointly developed with the French who call it Scalp Mrk 2. It's a pretty fancy piece of kit which has been used by Ukraine since 2023 anbd is now regularly fired at targets inside Russia. The plan is for Kyiv to have its own factory churning out Storm Shadow/Scalps. But why the huge publicity? The first thing Russia will do is start hitting the factory. There are occasions when secrecy is justified. This is one of them.

US and Iran should do a deal

It's time for Washington and Tehran to stop threatening each other with military and economic action. Everyone in the world is fed up with the bickering and warnings and blackmail. It's all about ego and power abd status and money. Enough! Negotiators should get together and talk talk talk until a deal is done. The way things are going, the military bit of the war is going to start all over again and will make a deal that much more difficult. There is stillhuge US firepower in the region and Donald Trump might just have another bash but we know for sure that Iran will respond in kind by attacking US bases in the region and targeting energy plants in the Gulf. All pointless destruction for no reason other than to prove to Trump that the new regime in Tehran is not going to back down. Basically, the war was avoidable. There was a kind of deal on the table but Trump ignored it. Now he is stuck in an unholy mess and talking of an economic D-Day against Iran. The poor Iranian people, none of whom want this war to continue ruining their lives, will suffer even more. But they have leaders, both clerical and military, who don't care a fig for their personal suffering. All they want is to survive as a regime and mastermind hatred towards the US and the West. It really is time for all this hatred and revenge to be brought to a close. But I fear the presence of Trump in the White House and the bullies of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in Tehran are going to make a deal impossible. This is a catastrophe for the world.

Prince Harry and Prince William are like non-brothers

Harry and Meghan are hoping that their return to Britain to live and educate their children will bring them back into the royal family fold. But there is one huge obstacle in the way. Harry apparently hasn't spoken to his brother, William, for years. William is so angry with his brother for breaching every royal protocol going that he has cut himself off from his exiled sibling. Once Harry is back, will William make any effort to reunite with his brother or will he cold-shoulder him and Meghan for ever? King Charles will probably try to intervene between his two sons to stop this huge divide, but the Prince of Wales is his own man and he might fight against his father's efforts. Also, Katherine and Meghan cannot endure each other, judging by what has happened in the past between the two sisters-in-law. Meghan and Kate are totally different human beings and I think it's fair to say that while Kate is loved by the public, Meghan is not. This is going to make life very difficult for both Harry and Meghan when they set up home in the countryside outside London, probably near where Charles has his beloved home in Gloucestershire. Could they even be sort of neighbours? But even if their change in geography makes it possible for the King to get to know his two grandchildren - the son and daughter of Harry and Meghan - it looks highly unlikely that Prince William and Kate will be making trips to the H and M new home for fun get-togethers. I fear it's all too late. There's too much animosity between the two brothers.

Prince Harry has to pay his share of legal damages

The troubles for Prince Harry just keep on coming. Having lost his case against Associated Newspapers, publishers of the Daily Mail, failing to impress the judge that the newspaper had used criminal and devious ways to breach his private life and that of his family, he now has to pay his share of more than £9 million in legal costs. Harry is a wealthy man but this will be a huge blow to his finances, just when he is in the process of buying or renting a mansion somewhere in the countryside back in England while apparently continuing to pay for his and Meghan's posh estate in California and their holiday home in Portugal. Harry was left a lot of money by his mother, Princess Diana, and by his grandmother, Queen Elizabeth, so his bank balance is not exactly empty. Nevertheless, with no regular income from employment, apart from Meghan's housewifery television programmes, things could get a little tight for the couple. Perhaps he hopes that by moving to England, King Charles will give him a bob or two to help him along. I somehow doubt it.

Harry and Meghan are coming home

Most newspapers in the UK today splashed on the most dramatic, extraordinary story of all time: Prince Harry and his wife, the Duchess of Sussex, are to leave their multi-million-dollar home in California and return to the UK to live with their two children. TV presenters were aghast with the news which broke last night. The papers are full of analysis. It's huge. Where will they live, will they get cosy with the King and Camilla, will they actually talk to the Prince of Wales and the lovely Katherine? It's mindboggling, except that it's not, of course. But it certainly shocked all the royal correspondents. This is the couple who used to be a Royal Couple who left Britain to live in California and drop all idea of being working members of the royal family. Now, they want to come home and live a life like everyone else. For this reason, I feel sorry for them because as soon as it is discovered where they are living there is going to be a mad stampede to follow their every move. Life will not be normal, like it was in California where the local people, used to celebrities, largely left them alone to get on with their Netflix lives. Back here, it's going to be drama every day, particularly for Meghan who has made it clear she wants to be left alone while at the same time enjoy as nuch publicity as possible. It's a contradiction that doesn't really work, not here anyway. I wish them luck, especially their children at school and I hope for their sake they are not "doorstepped" wherever they go, day and night. But the likelihood is that even now every photographic agency is planning ahead for the first big image scoop. Good luck, Harry and Meghan. I mean it.

Trump's threat to bomb Oman is bonkers

Bombing Iran hasn't got the result he wanted, so threatening to bomb Oman, an ally of the United States and, incidentally, a centuries-old partner with Britain, particularly to do with military, intelligence and security issues, would be madness. In fact, bonkers. Donald Trump can't have meant it, he just says these things without thinking and then starts to row back when questioned by reporters. He is angry because it looks like Oman and Iran will do a deal together which will allow/enable Oman on the south side of the Strait of Hormuz to take charge of shipping passing through their designated channel, while Iran on the north side will administrate the other channel. Whether it will involve tolls or service charges or some other clever financial penalty, is not yet clear. But Trump doesn't like it and posted that he would bomb Oman if it dared to do such a deal with Iran. Oman is a wonderful country with very friendly and very pro-British people, excellent hospitals, largely thanks to British doctors, and a famous beach where turtles come every year to lay their eggs. So, please, Mr Trump, no bombing. The questions is, will this threat change the relationship Oman has with the West? Will it do a deal with Iran under pressure from Tehran? What will Trump actually do if this deal is signed without US approval? The reality is, there is very little Trump can do to stop this Strait of Hormuz deal from going ahead. He'll rave and complain but Tehran is basically getting what it wants, at least as far as the strait is concerned. Bombing Oman is not an option!

Putin warns Britain

The British government, both under Conservatives and Labour, has been one of the most stalwart of supporters of Ukraine and its leader President Zelensky. Zelensky has been to 10 Downing Street more than any other leader for the last four years. The key difference today is that there seem to be no red lines as far as the UK is concerned about British-supplied weapons being used by Ukrainian against targets inside Russia. Everything supplied, from drones to cruise missiles, are now being launched against Russia, and London seems to be happy about it. Putin has noticed and he keeps up with everything that the UK does for Ukraine and against Russia, and he has warned of consequences. Two UK companies are known to be supplying Ukraine with medium-range drones which have been used against targets inside Russia. What is Putin planning to do? Well, he is already doing it, he is sending warships to frolic around in the English channel, and he is sending submarines to map all the super-sensitive cables running under the Channel, and his cyber-warfare specialist teams are attacking every aspect of British life every day. But could he do more? In other words, might he actually fire something at a target in the UK? This, of course, would be viewed as a direct aggressive move and could lead to an outright war between Russia and the UK (and thus Nato). Putin is far more likely to be somewhat more cunning than that. Cyber attacks could proliferate. When Putin is angry he tends to lash out. We will all have to be on our guard.

Jared Kushner, Trump's everywhere envoy

Jared Kushner never seems to stop. Today he is in Jerusalem seeing Benjamin Netanyahu, yesterday he was in Egypt talking to Hamas leader, Khalil al-Hayya and to the Egyptian President al-Sisi. The question is, how good an envoy is he? Is he a tough talker and negotiator or is he just a message carrier for his father-in-law? By now, after two years of being a Trump special envoy for everywhere, he must have acquired negotiating skills but will he persuade Netanyahu, for example, to row back on his rejection of Trump's 20-point peace plan for Gaza or will he come away as frustrated as Trump has become with the Israeli leader? Netanyahu has a huge amount at stake. He is due to stand for reelection in October and he dare not do or say anything which could look as if he is backing down vis a vis Hamas. He wants Hamas to totally disarm before he orders any Israeli troop withdrawals. That's presumably what he will tell Kushner. But what Trump wants to hear is that Israel will withdraw from Gaza at the same time as Hamas starts handing over its weapons. In other words, choreography. So far, Netanyahu says NO to that. Let's see whether Kushner has the balls and clout to get Netanyahu to show more of a compromise. It seems unlikely.

Has Trump lost his global clout?

Like the bee or butterfly flapping its wings can have an effect on the world's environment, so the words of Donald Trump used to shake every capital on the planet. But is that still the case? Does everyone jump when Trump comes out with one of his bold statements, like when he threatened to destroy Iran's civilisation? He still has the power to shock and surprise, but after so many U-turns and changes of mind, I would say the Trump Effect has now dwindled. Is Iran terrified at the thought of Trump reordering military strikes? I somehow doubt it. The Tehran regime has learned to treat some of his warnings and threats with a pinch of salt or a shrug of the shoulders. Does Israel's prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, jump to attention every time Trump barks at him? Not any more. Netanyahu rejected Trump's peace plan for Gaza because it didn't say that Hamas had to totally disarm BEFORE Israel start to withdraw its troops from the territory. Does Europe quiver at the thought of a Trump phone call, demanding this or that? No longer, I suspect. This must mean that for his final two years in Office, Trump is going to struggle to get his own way. This will make him increasingly frustrated which is probably not a good thpught.

Why Trump is on Iran's hitlist

The assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on February 28 has placed President Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, on a forever revenge hit list carried by Iran’s world network of militant Shia activists, a former Mossad official has told The Times. It was this revenge motivation which persuaded the US Secret Service to orchestrate the elaborate subterfuge which led to Trump being evacuated from Air Force One through a catering container truck to another plane at Ankara international airport for his flight home, following the end of the Nato summit in the Turkish capital on July 8. Among the mass of intelligence pouring in from all quarters over recent months, it is believed an intercepted conversation or directive from Tehran may have made reference to the option of using a man-portable missile launcher close to the airport when Trump was due to take off on Air Force One. There was a suspected sighting of such a weapon system on that day, according to the New York Times. “The Americans are looking at an enormous amount of information, and if there’s intelligence that suggests somebody, whether the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps [IRGC] or the Iranian intelligence service or a terrorist group is seeking revenge on Trump for the assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, then it has to be taken seriously,” Rami Igra, former Mossad official, said. “Ali Khamenei was a religious leader, the most important personality in the Shia world. There are 250 million people in this world who are Shia Muslim. So there is a huge religious incentive for seeking revenge for the death of their leader,” he said. “It’s most likely that it ws a technological source, rather than a human source, which provided the intelligence. Technological sources are hardcore evidence which would have come from an interception of a conversation or a directive about where someone should be and at what place and time,” said Igra who was head of Mossad’s hostage and missing-in-action (MIA) department. “The US Secret Service never takes chances. They’re not allowed to take chances. Their job is to imagine the worst all the time. Israel always passes on the intelligence it gets, even to unfriendly nations, if it will save peoples’ lives,” he said. He said Iran had a history of carrying out assassinations. “But the only assassination involving the Iranian intelligence service specifically was the attack on the Mykonos restaurant in Berlin against anti-Iranian activists in the 1990s [on September 17, 1992, four exiled Kurdish-Iranian individuals were killed. A German court ruled that top leaders of the Iranian government were involved].” “On the whole, the Iranian intelligence service is not in the business of assassinations. Its speciality is espionage. Israel’s Shin Bet counter-espionage organisation has picked up 30 Israeli spies, recruited by the Iranian intelligence service,” Igra said. Iran has two overlapping intelligence services, the Ministry of Intelligence (MOI), and the IRGC’s own organisation, both of which come under the aegis of the supreme leader. In addition, there is the IRGC’s Quds Force, the overseas operations branch which carries out intelligence-gathering, sabotage and support for Iran’s proxy militia forces throughout the Middle East. Major-General Qasem Soleimani was the head of the Quds Force when he was assassinated by a US armed drone outside Baghdad airport on January 3, 2020. he IRGC intelligence branch has been specially active in recent years, kidnapping Iranian dissidents and attempted abductions of Israeli businessmen. Both the MOI and IRGC are known to be active in Turkey and the United Arab Emirates. The US Justice Department revealed that the IRGC was behind an assassination attempt against Trump when he was on the presidential campaign trail in 2024. “It’s no secret that the Iranians have wanted to assassinate Trump and other figures from this first term like Mike Pompeo [then secretary of state], John Bolton [national security adviser], and Brian Hook [special representative for Iran] who were involved in the drone strike that killed Soleimani in 2020,” a former senior US diplomatic official said. “This desire for revenge has been quickened by the Israeli pager assassination plot that decapitated Hezbollah [in 2024], strikes against IRGC figures in Syria before the fall of [President Bashar al-] Assad and the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh of Hamas in Tehran in 2024, not to mention the decapitation strikes that began the current war with Iran, including the killing of the supreme leader, and many senior leaders of the security elements,” the former official said. “Iran has not had much success, so far, with assassinating western senior leaders, as opposed to regime opponents, but they have demonstrated their reach by going after soft targets like the Jewish community centre in Buenos Aires [which killed 85 people in 1994] and [the US air base barracks at] Khobar Towers in Saudi Arabia in 1996 [when a truck bomb killed 19 American airmen].” “The fact that they have, so far, failed to take out western leaders doesn't mean they will stop trying or that at some point they might not succeed.” The now-confirmed switch in planes at Ankara via the catering truck was not the first time that the US Secret Service has had to use deception to protect the life of the president. President Bill Clinton flew secretly to India and Pakistan in 2000 when a crisis was building over Kashmir between the two nuclear powers. He, too, switched from Air Force One to an unmarked aircraft. Both President George W Bush and President Barack Obama, used decoys and deception to visit, respectively, Baghdad in 2003 eight months after the start of the Iraq war, and Afghanistan to meet US troops in 2010.

Europe having to get used to extreme heat

This is the future and it doesn't look or feel good. Temperatures heading for 40C across the continent and in the United Kingdom, a summer of hot, hot, steamy weather and, in the UK at least, no air conditioning in homes. Outside, there is no wind, just oppressive hotness. This is not the future any of us wants but as the politicians throughout Europe and the rest of the world have failed, failed, failed to do anything serious about climate change, it is now hitting us very severely and there is very little we simple folk can do about it. The terrifying fact is that even if world leaders, including and especially Donald Trump and Xi Zinping, suddenly realise they have to do something, it's all too late. Temperatures have risen this year and will do so again next year and the following year. Green grass will vanish, trees will die, people will die, jobs will go, the world will creak and groan. and yet, still, the wars we now have will carry on as normal. What a future for our children and grandchildren.

Secret Service caters for Donald Trump

Donald Trump is a big guy, so being shuffled into a catering container for his switch to another plane for a getaway from Ankara the other week must have seemed somewhat undignified. But he was under orders from the Secret Service. They wanted him to leave the Nato summit in Ankara by a method that at all costs evaded the possible threat of an Iranian missile hitting his normal plane, Air Force One. Of course it's the responsibility of the president's Secret Service detail to decide what's best for him, but it was certainly unusual for the president of the United States to be exited by subterfuge from a Nato country to return home. But this is the world we live in, or to be more precise, this is the world western leaders have to face when there are malign states intent on targeting them. It is true, of course, that Iran's own leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed on the first day of the US/Israel war which began on February 28th, and targeting Trump in revenge is something which the US intelligence services have been aware of since that decapitation strike. It's another reason why any peace deal between the US and Iran is highly unlikely while Trump is in the White House. Trump's "catering" experience at Ankara airpoprt will go down in history as one of the more quixotic evacuation procedures used to keep the president safe.

Is Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei in charge after all?

Despite facial disfigurements and other injuries to his body and his hideaway never-seen existence, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei who took over as Iran's supreme leader when his father was killed on the first day of the US/Israel war with Iran, seems actually to be in charge and making decisions which others are obeying. He seems to have taken the hardest-possible line on doing any sort of deal with the US and appears determined to put his stamp on the future of Iran. While the military in the shape of the commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, are the visible leaders of the country, the disabled supreme leader is still issuing orders. How it is being done is difficult to guage but clearly the courier system he is suspected of using from his command bunker is working effectively. Mojtaba, I am sure, has one driving motivation for taking the toughest line with the US. He blames Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, for the assassination of his father, the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. He no doubt wants revenge and the best way, I giess, is for him to put so much pressure on Trump by hanging on to the Strait of Hormuz, that the US will just give up. Whatever happens in the next few weeks, Iran's control of the strait is not going to be conceded in any future deal, if there is ever a deal. Mojtaba may have vanished into his bunker somewhere, but he is alive and dictating the terms for what he will see as Trump's surrender.

Will Venezuela be Trump's only triumph?

The way things are going wrong for Trump in Iran, Gaza and Ukraine, it may turn out that when he leaves office in January 2029 he will have only one foreign success story to his name and for his legacy. Mind you, even the Venezuela venture hasn't exactly worked out well for the people. American Delta Force commandos swept in by heliopter in the dead of night and captured the dreadful President Nicolas Maduro and his wife in their pyjamas and took them back to the US for trial on drugs charges. But has that meant a transformation for the Venezuelan people, with oil money back in the treasury coffers to be spent on housing and social welfare and better living standards? Definitely not. And quite what the arrangement now is between Washington and Caracas over how the country is to be run remains somewhat cloudy. Anyway, the whizzo military operation to seize Maduro was without question a coup for Trump. But that's all he has to boast about. Everything else has gone wrong. Gaza is still in a mess with Israel and Hamas locked in anger and retribution, Iran is a hopeless case with no end in sight to an intractable impasse over the Strait of Hormuz and everything else, and the war in Ukraine is a for-ever conflict. Not much to write home about for a president who vowed to end all wars.

Netanyahu says no to Trump's Hamas disarmament plan

It has taken him more than a week but now Benjamin Netanyahu has come out and said he rejects the Hamas disarmament peace plan announced with such fanfare by Donald Trump. Well, of course he has. Netanyahu will never agree to any plan which stipulates that Israeli troops must withdraw from Gaza in a phased programme while Hamas throws a few weapons on a pile. The Trump plan is doomed. Hamas agreed to disarm but only on the understanding that Israel would totally withdraw from Gaza. But Netanyahu's future as prime minister rests on him being able to claim victory over Hamas which, in his mind, means the terror organisation must be seen to be disarmed of all weaponry BEFORE he orders any of the Israel Defence Forces to start leaving the Gaza Strip. Currently the IDF controls and occupies more than half of the territory. Now, of course, this will give Hamas the excuse to say to Trump, 'sorry, we're not going to disarm while the IDF refuses to leave Gaza'. Bang goes Trump's dream. It may be a ploy by Netanyahu to stir things up and force Hamas to adopt a different approach. But it seems more likely that between now and the elections in Israel in October, Netanyau is not going to give an inch on Gaza or Hamas.

Iran is going to set new rules for the Strait of Hormuz reopening

It might seem as if a deal between Iran and Oman over the management and administration of the Strait of Hormuz is going to lead to the instant reopening of the chokepoint and a return to the flow of shipping to pre-Iran-war levels. No such luck. Tehran has a much broader concept in mind which will become clear very soon. To further humiliate President Trump, it looks like the Iranian negotiators want the reopening of the strait to be directly linked to every word in the now-maligned Memorandaum of Understanding signed by the US and Iran om June 17. That would mean the US agreeing to lift the naval blockade, allow full exporting of Iranian oil and the unfreezing of financial assets. Iran believes it to be in the ascendancy over the US, so the imminent Iran/Oman arrangement which is bound to include a facility for charging shipping companies for services rendered, will be dependent on a much broader deal with the US, before the strait is fully reopened. This will be the worst outcome for Trump and a huge victory for Tehran. How on earth did it get to this point?

Ending Ukraine war was going to be Trump's legacy

Famously, Donald Trump promised to end the war in Ukraine within twenty-fours of taking office for the second time. Now, no one even suggests in Washington that the US president is even thinking about Russia and Ukraine, let alone banging heads together and getting a deal. Trump is totally focused on Iran and Hamas, and seems to have forgotten his pledge about the war in Ukraine. It's a war that has no end. Ukraine was doing quite well and is now almost daily hitting targets inside Russia, especially oil facilities of every kind to try and reduce the amount of revenue for Moscow to spend on the war. But Ukraine is running out of anti-defence missiles. So Russia is helping itself and striking Kyiv and other towns whenever it likes, killing Ukrainians. The US is also running out of Patriot interceptors, so Zelensky is not going to get any more from Trump, and will have to rely on Europe for some form of missile interceptors. But Europe doesn't have an abundance of these defensive weapons either. So poor Kyiv is going to suffer hits every night without the means to protect citizens. So, the war in Ukraine is not going to end soon. In fact, by the time Trump leaves office in January 2029, the war will still be going on, I predict, and the next president will have the job of trying to get negotiations going. One thing he won't promise is to end the war within twnety-four hours of taking office.

Iran and Oman will do a deal never mind Donald Trump

It doesn't seem to matter any more what Donald Trump says or threatens, the war is going to stop between the US and Iran with the following result: the Strait of Hormuz will be under the control of Iran on the north side and Oman on the south side and both will charge shipping companies "service fees", the half-ton of 60-per-cent-enriched uranium will remain in Iran, buried for the moment under piles of crumbled concrete and earth, the new regime in Tehran will survive and become evem more anti-US and anti-Israel and will continue to threaten the whole region, and Iran's ballistic missile production will keep going. Therefore, nothing, apart from a huge amount of damage to Iran's weapons infrastructure, navy and air defence systems, will have been achieved to ensure any form of lasting peace. Iran will remain the biggest threat to the Middle East and will claim a sort of victory over the US. It's difficult to see how Trump can engineer any other conclusion to this disastrous war.

Is Trump going to allow Iran to control the Strait of Hormuz?

The only talks gpoing on about Iran are the ones between Tehran and Oman about joint administration of the Strait of Hormuz. The focus is on Iran charging a service fee for ships entering the Gulf waterway through the Strait, and Oman charging a similar service fee for ships leaving the Gulf. It looks like Trump had this in mind when he called off the new round of bombing and said there was a deal in the offing. How dramatically things have changed. Not that long ago, Trump and Marco Rubio, his secretary of state and national security adviser, said the only way ahead was for the Strait to be totally opened and free of any kind of fee or toll. This was, after all, the situation before the war was started by the US and Israel. Now, five months later, the Iranians apoear to be on the brink of getting something which is both counter to international maritime law and to the wishes of the White House and every shipping company which uses the Gulf waterway. What an extraordinary and perilous change in circumstances. It's victory for Iran, however it is put by American officials. Now we'll have the Houthis in Yemen saying they want control of the strait linking the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, and China will be making demands about the Taiwan Strait etc etc. This is definitely the way things are going re Iran because Trump is so frustrated by the way the war has hit him back in the face that he wants an end to it whatever the deal looks like. It's seriously bad news. However, the only alternative is war and more war.

Trump has laid bare the limits of superpowerdom

Iran has been a much much tougher nut to crack than Iraq.The fact that Donald Trump has called off his latest planned mass aistrikes on Iran's power plants and bridges is not a sign of strength on his part but a confession of weakness. He can't defeat Iran or bring its rulers to their knees. The Tehran regime is sinply not going to back down from its absolute red line which is that in future and for eternity the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is going to control the Strait of Hormuz, with or without sharing financial proceeds with Oman across the other side of the chokepoint. Trump said he stopped the strikes because Saudi Arabia and Qatar and Iran asked him to, in return for an imminent, almost-ready settlement deal. Whether Iran put in a call, we don't know. Iran denies it. And Iran has also denied that talks with the US are to renew this afternoon. In fact, the only talks going on have been between Iran and Oman, sorting out who gets what re the Strait of Hormuz to keep it open by way of charging every ship a fee for safe passage. So, there is no imminent deal to end the war. In fact, Iranian rulers, according to reports, have indicated to Trump that if he launches further strikes, they will just respond with widespread missile hits on energy plants across the Gulf region. In other words, Iran has called Trump's bluff. This mighty superpower has been found wanting. It's running out of missiles, both offensive and defensive ones, abd even if there was an inexaustible supply, which there isn't, the US would still not be able to defeat Iran which is a huge country run by people who enjoy war. This is a moment of true disaster for the US and for the US military. China will be grinning all the way to its arms factories.

Trump calls off the new bombing raids

Keeping up with Donald Trump is like running a marathon where the final tape changes location every few minutes. You never know in which direction to go. Yesterday, Trump was definitely in bombing mood and mode. Today, he has had a change of mind. Something happened overnight which made him think maybe Iran would be sensible after all. I don't believe it, the sensible bit, but obviously the leaders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps read the runes and rang someone to plead for peace. Well, mot peace, but renewed peace talks. Whether anything comes of it we will have to see. But this brinkmanship diplomacy does work sometimes. Maybe the IRGC, basically the rules of Iran, believe it when Trump warned, as he does, that he was planning to destroy every energy plant and bridge and reduce Iran to a pile of rubble. Anyway, a lot of leaders took fright, not just the Iranian ones. Mohammed bin Salman, the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia, rang Trump and urged caution. Please, no escalation, he asked. Others, probably the Pakistanis, Qataris etc, also made phone calls. Trump is suggesting that the new talks will lead, or will have to lead, to the total unhindered reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and no nukes. And he wants the agreement to be rapidly concluded. It's fingers-crossed time for everyone, especially for Trump.

Trump poised for more bombing

There has been a relatively quiet period for a few days but all the signs and signals in Washington are that Donald Trump wants to return to bombing Iran big time. He has been promising to knock out all of Iran's bridges and power plants and it might be on the cards for this coming week. Many of his advisers will be cautioning against it. For a start, it will be devastating for the Iranian people whom he promised to protect and help after the savage regime killed thousands of protesters in the streets of Iran's cities. But also, what will Iran's response be? It will inflame the whole of the Middle East. But Trump is getting more frustrated every hour as he sees the regime in Tehran staying resilient and unmoving. Perhaps Trump hopes that by warning of a massive bombardment in the comping days, the Iranian generals and mullahs will give in and start negotiating again.But if they don't and the bombing starts, no one, especially, Trump, will be able to predict the consequences.

Will Hamas really disarm?

No one imagined that Hamas would voluntarily hand over its weapons and turn to politics and peace in the Gaza Strip. Even when President Trump announced his Board of Peace and the 20 stages towards a settlement to end the war with Israel, the sticking point, every analyst insisted, would be the disarmament of an organisation designated a terrorist group by the United States, Britain, the European Union, Australia and many other nations. Now, after months of negotiations, involving Trump’s two Middle East envoys, and mediators, Egypt, Qatar and Turkey, carried out without any fanfare, the seemingly impossible has been achieved. In what could be on one his most auspicious Truth Social posts, Trump announced that Hamas had finally agreed to disarm. Nothing in the Middle East is as simple as that. There are conditions which at this point might also appear to be unresolvable. For example, the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) will have to withdraw totally from their current occupation of around 53 per cent of Gaza. The announcement by Trump envisions a phased and concurrent disarmament and troop-withdrawal process. Under its new leader, Khalil al Hayya, appointed less than two weeks ago and with a reputation as a tough negotiator, it’s unlikely that Hamas will cooperate unless Israeli troops withdraw as per the agreement. Indeed, Hamas’s position prior to the Trump announcement was that the IDF had to withdraw from its so-called Yellow Line occupation before any disarmament took place. Nevertheless, the Trump Truth Social post provided the US president with the first piece of positive diplomatic endeavour for a long time. The five-month war with Iran has not gone the way he had wished and the Pentagon had promised, and the challenges ahead are becoming more complex and more frustrating for the White House as the strikes and counter-strikes continue. The Hamas breakthrough, if it turns out to be a genuine breakthrough, might just give Trump a new momentum towards his dream of a grand bargain for the Middle East, with or without the hardline mullahs and generals in Tehran. Trump’s envoys, Steve Witkoff, the president’s billionaire business friend, and Jared Kushner, his son-in-law, have been putting in the hours along with the regional mediators to push Hamas to this point. But there is still a long way to go and a large part of the future focus will be on persuading Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, and his most right-wing cabinet members that this is a golden opportunity, not to be missed. Under pressure from Trump who has said he will be “very, very disappointed” if Netanyahu fails to back the progress that has been made in recent months, the Israeli government will have little choice but to react positively, although no doubt with a large slice of scepticism and caution. History has shown that terrorist organisations do disarm (the Provisional IRA in 2005 and the Basque separatist group ETA in 2017, as just two examples). However, so much more is at stake with the Hamas decision. Could this lead, as Trump hopes, to a new, democratic and incorrupt government in Gaza, a decent life for the two million Palestinian people, and ultimately an independent nation, living in harmony with its Israeli neighbour? All these political objectives might seem far-fetched today when one remembers what happened on 7 October, 2023. Will Hamas genuinely transform itself from being what Israel views as a band of murderers, rapists and hostage-takers to an organisation prepared to sacrifice its bloodcurdling past for a fresh start? There are too many questions to be answered before any judgment can be made. For example, despite the IDF’s destruction of much of Hamas’s weapons stocks and underground war tunnels, the organisation still has an, albeit limited, arsenal of anti-tank missiles, short- and medium-range rockets and rocket-propelled grenades, and the means to produce more in bunkered workshops. Who will they hand the weapons to, where will they be held, or will they be destroyed? And how will the withdrawal of IDF troops from the Yellow Line in Gaza be orchestrated? Trump talks of a new Palestinian government. But will Hamas be represented if the disarmament process is completed? And will the Israeli government under its present leadership ever agree to an independent Palestinian state? Netanyahu is standing for re-election in October. There would seem to be zero chance that he will accept any such concept if he wins.

More and more countries being absorbed into the war with Iran

The number of countries being caught up in the US war with Iran is increasing by the week. Now it's Egypt being targeted by Iranian drones. The military rulers in Tehran are trying to incite a total Middle East war. Why they think this will help their own country and the poor Iranian people is difficult to fathom. But the leaders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps don't need any reminding that they were set up as a revolutionary force. In other words, their job is to spread revolution throughout the Arab/Muslim world. Iran wants to be the dominating nation, so it's all in their interest to show they can project power in opposition to what they see as the interfering western nations, mainly the United States. This is a revolution without end, and therefore Donald Trump, having started the war, must now contemplate the reality that Iran is never going to give up, or more specifically, the IRGC is never going to give up. The IRGC rulers are lapping up the chance to target everyone in the region to bring them to their knees. Reports in Washington today say Trump is getting angrier and angrier that he can't persuade Iran to do a deal. That will only encourage the IRGC leaders to keep going. This war is not going to end any time soon. If ever.

Europe will never patrol the Strait of Hormuz with a war on

A new government in London and suddenly there is an expectation rising in Washington that the UK, France and other European countries will send their navies to help patrol the Strait of Hormuz and keep the Iranians out. It isn't going to happen. Wes Streeting, the government minister translated from Health to Defence, seems keen keen to muster up some warsips to ride alongside the US Navy as a signal to Iran that the western world is now united against them. I'm not sure how this enthusiasm has suddenly emerged because I just don't see it happening. The UK position has always been that naval help is available for the Strait of Hormuz but not, repeat not, when the war is still uhderway. Well, as we see almost every day, the war IS still on and ships in the strait are being fired at. So any warships from Europe in the Gulf would become targets. While Trump would be delighted if his European allies helped out - and that would help with dodgy relations between the US and Nato as a whole - it's never going to take off. Did Andy Burnham say to Trump in his phone call that he would send the Royal Navy to the Strait of Hormuz? Did Streeting say the same to Pete Hegseth, his counterpart in America, that the Royal Navy was ready and willing? If they did, then they did so without the backing of any of the other European partners who will continue to say non, non, non, nein, nein, nein.

Netanyahu makes his pitch with Trump

It could be a very tricky conversation for Benjamin Netanyahu in the Oval Office today when the Israeli prime minister and President Donald Trump get together. The last time Trump spoke on the phone to Bibi, an expletive was used by the president. Netanyahu will be desperate to softsoap Trump and yet at the same time get his message across that the US cannot, must not, back out of the confrontation with Iran because it's now or never. The last thing the Israeli prime minister wants to hear is that Trump is desperate for the renewed peace talks to succeed so that he can end the war and claim victory. Netanyahu knows that victory against Tehran is still a long way off and however well the talks go, the likelihood is that the outcome will be bad for Israel. So there will be some sharp words today, I suspect, althugh Netanyahu knows how to play the game and he will want to leave the Oval Office with Trump's arms wrapped round him or at least holding on to his arm to show that he is once again back in his favour.

The hunt for Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei

It is the covert operation that is never officially discussed or confirmed but the hunt for Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei is preoccupying Mossad and the CIA. While President Trump considers his next move in the war with Iran, Israel’s foreign intelligence service and their American counterparts are jointly trying to trace the supreme leader who took power after his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed in an Israeli airstrike on February 28. The challenge for the world’s most sophisticated intelligence agencies is that the target has gone silent. Mojtaba appears not to have picked up a phone or opened a laptop for about 150 days. He is somewhere in a deep shelter, his face disfigured from injuries sustained in the airstrike that killed his father, and he does not dare emerge into daylight for fear of being spotted by an American spy satellite. To track his father, Israel and the US used every cyber trick in the book, including hacking traffic cameras in Tehran to spot the vehicles used by the former supreme leader’s bodyguards and associates. Technology, orchestrated by the American National Security Agency (NSA) and Israel’s equivalent, known as Unit 8200, uncovered where Ali Khamenei and his principal military and intelligence officials would be on that day. They were all eliminated. This time, it is different. Whether or not it makes sense to try to assassinate the new supreme leader when it is clear the military is really in charge of Iran, the fact remains that Mojtaba has a key role in the regime and decisions on military action and he has gone missing. The key to pinpointing his location is now human intelligence (humint), not eavesdropping and surveillance technology. There are still people in the intelligence community who believe he may be dead and that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is faking his survival to legitimise its war with the US. So what is needed is proof of his existence and confirmation of where he is hiding, perhaps in one of the underground tunnels in Tehran or the military bunker close to the religious city of Qom, about 90 miles south of the capital. With cyber sleuthing less effective, Mossad, with its network of agents inside Iran, many of them demoralised and disillusioned Iranian nationals, is prioritising its efforts on these two questions: Mojtaba’s status and his whereabouts. “The challenge for Israel is the same problem we had in trying to find and release hostages in Gaza,” said Rami Igra, a former division chief of Mossad. “Israeli intelligence controlled the whole of Gaza, every toilet was rigged [bugged] to trace where they were being held but we didn’t find them. There was too much reliance on electronic technology and not enough on real people, human intelligence. “Mojtaba may not be using a phone but if he exists at all, he has other forms of communication, like little pieces of paper. They are using multiple layers of couriers carrying messages. “These couriers are unaware of what they’re doing, other than taking messages from one person to the next. So, if they [Mossad] find him it will be because of a human element. But the regime in Tehran is aware of this danger.” Just as Osama bin Laden, the founder of al-Qaeda, was traced by the CIA through one of his couriers, so Mossad’s focus is on identifying and following those carrying messages to and from Mojtaba. “The only real way to get to Mojtaba is to recruit an agent who is in contact with him,” said Igra. “But this is very difficult because there is tough screening in Iran of all people close to him, and probably only two or three members of the IRGC know how to contact him. “We can also track other people using their phones and listen in on discussions about Mojtaba and where he might be. Iran is a country where the people are suffering from lack of money and we have ways of offering rewards on the internet for information,” he said. Are Mossad agents following key members of the regime to track Mojtaba? President Masoud Pezeshkian, for example, claimed he had spent two and half hours with the injured supreme leader and said he was fine. “This is bullshit,” Igra said. “The Iranian president never saw him.” Avner Avraham, a former lieutenant colonel in Mossad, identified another problem in the hunt for the ayatollah. “They are also using doubles, just like Saddam Hussein did,” he said. He added: “Mojtaba stays in different locations and people are employed to feed him. But what they don’t know is whether the food they are providing is for the real Mojtaba or a double. So they go home at night and believe they are looking after the supreme leader when it fact he’s probably a fake.” At some point, the Iranian people will demand to see their new supreme leader. He failed to appear for his father’s funeral this month. They only evidence for his existence is several official statements about the war issued in his name. Is it possible that to appease the Iranian people, Mojtaba might record a personal message, just like bin Laden used to do when he was hiding in the border area of Afghanistan and Pakistan? “Even if he doesn’t show his face, he could use his voice to give a message to the Iranian people,” Avraham said. “But that could make him vulnerable. It’s possible to glean information from the voice file, such as the type of recorder used and possibly the location where the voice was recorded.” A former senior US defence official said: “I am quite sure, given [the airstrike] on February 28, that Mojtaba is practising much better operational security and, as a result, human intelligence will be more important in the hunt for him. “I am sceptical about US humint since Iran has been a denied area for 40 years. Israeli human intelligence is clearly much better but it also has its limits.” If Mossad and the CIA manage to establish Mojtaba’s whereabouts, political leaders in the US and Israel will have to decide how to act on the information. A former leading US intelligence official summed up their dilemma: “I think we have probably dispatched enough Iranian leaders for the time being, unless there is very strong confidence that the current leader will be replaced by someone committed to a democratic future for Iran and who will ride in on a white horse.”

Tump's Qatari Air Force One scandal

When the Pentagon took possession of the gifted Qatari Boeing 747-8 airliner to convert into Donald Trump's temporary Air Force One - more luxury, less security - it was clear to all aviation experts that the plan to rush the new plane into use in less than a year for a mere $400 million was far-fetched, impractical, and potentially risky for the president. The Pentagon denied it and said the Qatari Air Force One would have all the relevant security features to make it safe for the president to use as his Air Force One wherever he went. Now we know this was simply not the case. When Trump took it to the Nato summit in Ankara, he was advised not to board it for the return journey because of fears of a possible Iranian-inspired attack on the plane. Why the concern? Because Trump's luxurily-fitted plane didn't have anti-missile defences. With a $400 millio price tag for the conversion of the Qatari plane, there wasn't enough money to install such crucial defensive systems. Clearly, the Secret Service was appalled which is why Trump had to return to Washington from Ankara on his old Air Force One which does have anti-missile systems and all the other security features which make it safe for the president to use in any part of the world. Now, surprise, surprise, the Quatari-gifted plane has been returned to the workshop for the full security adaptation. If it hadn't been for the fantastic stories by the New York Times, none of this would have materialised. But the story I wrote for The Times way back when Trump first accepted the Qatari gift said this: it would require at least $1 billion for the conversion work, all the crucial saftey features would be needed and it would take at least two years to get it done, all of which has proved to be right on the ball! PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER. WATERSTONES, ROWANVALE BOOKS, AMAZON

Trump's doubtful nuclear deal with Saudi Arabia

President Trump always had this dream of uniting all the Arab countries behind Israel in opposition to Iran. It still remains a dream. Last week, as part of this scheme for the whole region, the president announced he had agreed to transfer nuclear technology to Saudi Arabia, but then made it clear it was dependent on the royal kingdom agreeing to full diplomatic relations with Israel. One imagines that for the Saudi government this could be a condition too far, certainly at this time. Saudi Arabia has always insisted that any diplomatic agreement with Israel would only be possible once there is a deal going ahead for a Palestinian state. Israel under Benjamin Netanyahu is opposed to a Palestinian state, and Israeli soldiers are still occupying more than half of Gaza where peace is as fragile as ever. The other challenge for Trump is that the war with Iran is showing no sign of ending. Indeed, in recent days, the violence has escalated with US strikes every night on Iranian military targets and reciprocal attacks by Iran against countries in the Gulf region. The Houthis in Yemen, financed and supported by Iran, have now also rejoined the fight and have targeted Saudi oil tankers transiting the Red Sea. The escalation in the war has driven up oil prices to $100 a barrel, raising new concerns about the cost of living in the US and around the world. The announcement about the transfer of nuclear technology to Saudi Arabia provoked immediate concerns that at some time in the future, the Saudis might try to produce a nuclear bomb if they can learn the process of enriching uranium. Trump has said an agreement for the transfer of technology would not allow any future move to acquire nuclear weapons. Nevertheless, the timing of the announcement is not helpful when the president keeps on repeating that Iran must never be allowed to have a nuclear bomb. The broader question is whether Trump’s vision of a united Middle East is either practical or feasible in the current circumstances. The president himself has blamed Israel for any hostility towards the Israeli government around the world, citing the military action taken against Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon which have caused widescale deaths of civilians. It is difficult to see how an Arab country, such as Saudi Arabia, will contemplate lining up diplomatically with Israel while these attacks continue. The president started implementing his dream during his first term in office when Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates signed a deal to have full relations with Israel. It was called the Abraham Accords.Trump wants the Abraham Accords to embrace other Arab countries in his second term in office. But if the war in Iran and the Israeli action in Gaza and Lebanon continue, the chances of that happening are not hopeful.

Is Trump preparing for a big escalation in the war with Iran?

We have now had more than ten days of US raids on Iranian military targets, aimed at degrading the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' ability to attack ships in the Strait of Hormuz. But it's still not having the affect Trump is looking for which is a full backdown by Tehran and a return to negotiations. As a consequence, I think there is now a strong chance that Trump will up the ante and focus far more on the IRGC itself. This might even involve a temporary landing of troops in Iran to destroy an IRGC stronghold. If this happens, it will be seen as the biggest escalation of the war and a dangerous one because of the rik of casualties on the American side. But something has to happen. The US can't just launch raids every night on the same old targets - air defence systems, communications sites, maritime units, drone storage sites etc for months and months. A new phase must surely be coming, unless Tehran suddenly caves in and begs to go back to Switzerland for talks. There has been no begging so far, whatever Trump claims. So, my prediction is, watch out, Iran. Something bigger is about to happen that could send the IRGC reeling.

Trump warns he will hit bridges and power plants in Iran for every ship targeted in the Gulf

Donald Trump has vowed in the past to destroy Iranian civilisation. No one believed he really meant it. Now, however, he has told Iran via his Truth Social platform that every time the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps fires at a ship in the Strait of Hormuz he will order his military to bomb a bridge or a power plant. This time I think he means it. A lot of commentators have pointed out that deliberately targeting a civilian infrastructure site is a breach of the Geneva Convention. But then, surely, so is deliberately targeting a commercial ship trying to go about its business in an international waterway. So, unlawful or not under international law, the message from Trump might, just might, make Tehran think again about hitting ships. It probably won't because the IRGC which runs the country can't bear the thought of giving into Trump. So, more ships will be hit by missiles and drones. This means that in the next week or so, Iran is going to lose a handful of bridges and power plants. This is brinkmanship at its worst. One can only say, thank God Iran doesn't have a nuclear weapon because by now we would be in a nuclear stand-off.

War with Iran is getting bigger and bigger

So much for the much-trumpeted 60-day ceasefire. We had a few days of non-violence and then Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps attacked two ships in the Gulf and now every day it's war. If it goes on much longer both sides will run out of missiles and drones and bombs. The war is also expanding, with the Houthis in Yemen, always ready for a scrap, now intending to carry out their own blockade of Saudi Arabia. The US will have to deal with it which means taking warships and fighter aircraft away from the war with Iran. What must Israel be thinking right now? Netanyahu probably wants to get involved again, even though the Israeli military are still busy with Gaza and Hezbollah.The new British prime minister Andy Burnham is already under pressure from Trump to allow UK bases to be used for bombing Iran. Will Burnham reverse Keir Starmer's decision to allow only defensive strikes to go ahead from the bases? It seems unlikely unless Burnham is desperate to curry favour with Trump. So, for the moment, Europe is staying out of the war but might this change? Again, I think it's unlikely. Europe wants a negotiated end to the war and will continue to refuse to go to Trump's aid. But diplomacy for now is out of the window.When is the war ever going to stop?

Iran's deep-bunkered weapons sites are frustrating Trump

American bombs, cruise missiles and latest state of the art drones have laid waste to Iranian bridges, coastal defences, control towers and other military installations in the past week. But even as President Trump threatens to escalate the war and hit his enemy ever harder, Iran has so far proved capable of retaliating with its own strikes. Iran is relying on its survival as a military power, capable of confronting the US, on a network of underground “missile cities” and a developing nuclear site buried so deep in a mountain no American bomb can reach it. These deep, bunkered facilities stand between victory for Trump and a long drawn-out war which no one wins. In one of several interviews last week, the president declared the US would soon be targeting the nuclear complex known as “Pickaxe Mountain”, which is an affront to his demand that Iran should never pursue a nuclear weapon. Trump said the site buried under a granite mountain would receive “a nice big fat shot right in the front door”. The underground site, formally known as Kuh-e Kolang Gaz La (Kolang meaning pickaxe) is not yet operational but is located immediately southwest of Natanz, one of three nuclear sites hit by the US and Israel in Operation Midnight Hammer in June last year. So far, Pickaxe Mountain has not been targeted, even though US intelligence believes it’s being built to produce gas centrifuges for enriching uranium to weapons-grade level and for the enriching process itself. It has two pairs of extensively hardened entrances, east and west, and the caverns below where nuclear production work could be carried out are estimated to be more than 100 metres deep (about 330ft). Trump’s reference to hitting the site “in the front door” suggests any attack would aim to seal off the entrances rather than try to penetrate deep enough to demolish the underground caverns. The US air force has only one conventional bomb type capable of reaching deeply-buried facilities. But the 30,000lb GBU-57 massive ordnance penetrator (MOP), dropped by B-2 stealth bombers on Natanz and the two other nuclear sites at Fordow and Isfahan last year, can penetrate “only” an estimated 200ft underground. “An attack on Pickaxe Mountain could target the above-ground incoming power supply lines, the location of ventilation shafts [which is what the B-2s targeted in the attacks on the three other sites in June last year] and the open tunnel entrances,” the Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security predicted. “We’re watching Pickaxe Mountain very closely,” Trump said in the interview with Hugh Hewitt, a conservative talk show host on Salem Radio. “We’re going to take out Pickaxe Mountain. Tell the Iranians to be ready.” However, even with its now limited stock of MOPs - 14 out of an existing stock of around 20 were used up in Operation Midnight Hammer – the US military cannot guarantee putting Pickaxe Mountain out of action for very long. The same challenge has been found with Iran’s deeply-buried missile cities, dozens of underground sites located around the country where medium-range and short-range ballistic missiles and launchers are housed. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps aerospace force stores the missiles in multi-level tunnel systems, many of them also buried in mountains. Iran last week released a video showing two IRGC commanders (now both dead), touring the tunnels in one of the underground cities, seen lined with missiles and launchers. Previous footage on state media has shown extensive tunnels where stockpiles of weapons are stored. During more than a week of strikes, US Central Command has said its attacks would “degrade” Iran’s missile and drone capabilities. But the large-scale retaliatory attacks launched by Iran against Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Jordan and elsewhere in the Middle East, have demonstrated that the IRGC’s longstanding plans for war have paid off.

The war in Iran is being ramped up

The death of two US servicemen, killed in Jordan by an Iranian strike has lit the touch paper. Now more and more attacks by the US military are seemingly being aimed at Iran's civilian infrastructure. This is going to get very ugly for the Iranians. But will the regime in Tehran start thinking again about whether to call a halt to retaliatory strikes and hits on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and go back to peace negotiations? I fear this is all too late now. I believe it won't be long before we hear once again of US plans to take or destroy Kharg Island which is full of Iranian oil terminals and pipelines, just like we did weeks ago, except that Trump never went ahead with it. I think Trump believes, rightly so, that the Iranian regime can never be trusted and that, therefore, it needs to be taught a lesson it will never safely emerge from. This next week is going to see a thunderous response from the US. Donald Trump has now decided to go back to full-scale war with everything being seen as a legitimate target. Before this devastation gets underway, Tehran will need to think hard about the future of its country and the poor population which is in the midst of this nightmare.

This is a war with no red lines

Officials keep still using the phrase "red lines" when talking of the war between the US and Iran, as if both sides have an agreed limit to the direction and scale of the attacks with missiles, bombs and drones. In fact there are no red lines anymore, other than the nuclear one of course (one hopes). Iran has been attacking civilian targets in the Gulf since the war began and now the US has taken the gloves off and is attacking bridges, roads, power stations and other energy sites. Donald Trump vowed that next week, unless Iran came to the negotiating table, he would order the military to carry out huge attacks on Iran's infrastructure. That seems to have started already. So, forget the red lines jargon. All bets are off. The US will go for Iran's energy infrastructure, something which Trump has been promising to do for weeks. If it's on a large scale, then Iran's economy is going to go bust very quickly. It's amazing to remember that in the Memorandum of Understanding or Misunderstanding as one columnist in the US put it, Iran was promised a huge investment fund of $300 billion as part of the agreement to help reconstruct the country. Why on earth didn't Iran take that and get on with rebuilding the damaged country? Instead, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched attacks on ships in the Gulf because it didn't want ships to use the southern route close to Oman - out of their control. So so stupid and shortsighted. That investment money could have been used to bring the smile back to the Iranian people. But the IRGC doesn't care about the ordinary people, and now Iranians are getting scared because roads they need to connect communities are being bombed. When will the IRGC ever learn? PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER IN PAPERBACK. ROWANVALE bOOKS, wATERSTONES, AMAZON.

Is a negotiated settlement with Iran now off the table?

There really doesn't seem any point in renewing the "peace" negotiations between the US and Iran. Both sides are now rigidly in war mode. This is a disaster for the Gulf, for the Middle East, for the world. Donald Trump went to war and hoped for a quick finish. But failed. The "new" regime in Tehran, having lost its supreme leader through assassination, has never really been interested in doing business with the US but just wants revenge, however long it takes. Right now, the generals and mullahs want revenge by hanging onto the Strait of Hormuz, but they probably want personal revenge as well. This is a dangerous period. One hears very little these days of back channel attempts by Pakistan, Qatar and others to get the two sides together. So for the time being, probably the next two or three months, it's going to be war, war, war and no serious negotiations. Again, this is a disaster for everyone. It does demonstrate, does it not, that the United Nations is an ineffective organisation with no role to play at all. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER, A VERY EXCITING PAPERBACK PUBLISHED BY ROWANVALE BOOKS.

Five days of renewed war in Iran and still no peace

It looks like Iran is just going to stomach whatever the US hurls at it and wait for the moment when Donald Trump has had enough and turns his attention elsewhere. Remeber, there are still several thousand Marines waiting for orders from the commander-in-chief. Since being deployed to the region, they have done nothing except try and keep on board their warships. They haven't been anywhere near Iranian territory. Will Trump ever use them? I think not. The reason is that so far the war has been about weapons, not personnel. About thirteen US military personnel have been killed in Operation Epic Fury but not in Iran. Trump knows that if he sends in the marines and the infantry from 82nd Airborne Division also in the region, it could lead to a dramatic rise in fatalities. That's when people back home and Congress will start to get really angry about the war. For the vast majority of Americans it's just a war of drones and missiles happening a long way from home. But fatalities will bring home the truth of this war which is that at present there is no end in sight. Will Trump blink first or will the rulers of the regime in Tehran be forced to blink first because of the damage the war and renewed naval blockade is doing to the economy? No one is blinking right now but the nearer we get to the midterm elections in the US, the more likely it will be Trump who blinks first.

The war with Iran can't go on like this for ever

This tit-for-tat stuff can't go one for ever. At some time, those with a brain in their head will have to call a halt and suggest some way out of this nonsense. You can't bludgeon a whole country into submission. Well, at least not one like Iran. The Tehran regime has clearly decided it's not going to lose this one and will hang on regardless. It's an incredible lesson for the world's military superpower. Might doesn't always, in fact rarely, win the day. What we have at the moment with US Central Command carrying out more attacks every day and putting out statements saying the strikes are intended to "degrade" Iran's ability to target ships in the Strait of Hormuz, is all good and fine. But the strikes are NOT stopping Iran from responding with retaliatory missile and drone attacks on the poor Gulf states, and they are not making it safe for ships to go through the chokepoint. So, in other words, the daily/nightly strikes are destroying a lot of military hardware, but Iran seems to have an inexhaustible supply of weapons to fire at countries allied to the US. So, where is it going? Can this carry on for ever? No, of course not. What I want to know is this: what are Trump's military chiefs telling thir commander-in-chief? Do they just carry out his orders without offering any cautionary advice? Are they telling him that he is winning? It's very clear the US is not winning at the moment. So, why don't Pete Hegseth, the US defence secretary, and General Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, confront Trump and say they are getting nowhere? Because, they are afraid to do so. It's as simple as that. Just like the military chiefs in Moscow are afraid to tell Putin that he is losing the war in Ukraine.

What will break Iran?

With the war between the US and Iran effectively back to square one, what can Donald Trump do to make the Tehran regime back down and go for peace? It won't be from bombing and more bombing. That doesn't seem to work. The only alternative is to destroy Iran's economy. That would require a lot of bombing of all Iran's energy sites which basically allow the country to survive and mount such a leak-free naval blockade that all trade in and out of Iran stops totally. But will Trump go for the jugular? He has largely refrained from destroying Iran's oil terminals, partly because it would have a devastating impact on the Iranian people and world oil prices - thus the global economy. The blockade is back on, so Iran from today will start losing billions of dollars in revenue. But so far that hasn't worked either. As for Trump's announcement that he is going to take over the Strait of Hormuz and charge shipping companies a 20 per cent levy for benefiting from military protection is all hoo haa. You can't denounce Iran for threatening to charge a toll and then do exactly the same. So that won't happen. Basically, Trump is in a right old fix. Whatever he does or threatens to do against Iran, the new mullahs and generals in Tehran stubbornly refuse to cooperate. The war will go on and on and on.

Now the US uses navy drones to hit Iran

It's just like the war in Ukraine where Kyiv is using every type of drone - aerial, naval, underwater. Now for the first time the US has launched surface drones to hit Iran's missile boats and other targets. It's extraordinary how Ukraine has changed the face of warfare for the rest of the world. Israel actually started it years back when they launched aerial drones to hit Syrian air defence systems in the 1970s. Israel pioneered the use of armed drones in warfare, althpugh the US used drones for surveillance in the Vietnam War in the 1960s. But drone warfare has taken off in the battle between Russia and Ukraine, and the drones have become longer-range, more deadly, and far more accurate. Now it's drone warfare between the US and Iran, and the first use by the US of naval surface drones shows how everyone has learnt the lessons from Ukraine. The only trouble is, they are one-way weapon systems, ie kamikaze. Once they've fulfilled their mission, they are destroyed by their own explosives. What the US needs is a two-way naval drone, that comes back, arms up and returns. It probably won't be long. Iran is already using aerial drones to target ships in the Strait of Hormuz and oil facilities in the Gulf. The UK government has transformed its defence strategy by focusing more on drones than anything else. It's the drone warefare era until soemthing else turns up of course.

Looks like Iran will never give up

Whatever the US throws at Iran, the regime rulers still come up with an answer and launch strikes on Gulf states. Despite all the bombings that have taken place since the war began at the end of February, Iran still seems to have a plentiful supply of missiles and drones. How is this possible? The US is supposed to have hit Iran's drone and missile factories, so you would have thought by now the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps would be running out of stocks. But it is not the case. The US military has a massive advantage in terms of firepower but Iran is not cowed. It seems extraordinary that the IRGC can answer back every time they get targeted. This must mean that the Pentagon and the US intelligence community have seriously underestimated the missile and drone stocks Iran has. The bizarre thing is that the US cannot keep targeting Iran's arms production plants unless the IRGC makes the mistake of firing more drones against ships in the Strait of Hormuz. When the IRGC does launch strikes on ships it gives the US instant justification for launching massive retaliatory attacks. Does the IRGC not realise this? Apparently not. This is because the Tehran regime is so obsessed with trying to control the Strait of Hormuz it is literally inviting the US to target its weapons sites and communications facilities. It's madness.

Iran/US confrontation now at critical point

Tehran is claiming that the recent attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz were a mistake, carried out by some unregulated unit of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. I don't believe a word of it, there is no such thing as an ill-disciplined IRGC unit doing its own thing. Nevertheless, the military retaliation from the US was so huge that the rulers in Tehran realised it WAS a mistake, but it was their mistake, not some disobedient drone operating unit. So, Iran rushed off to Oman to talk about the strait and get the language sorted out between the two countries which, geographically, are in the dominant position either side of the strait. And then the severely injured and possibly disfigured new supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei issues a state,ent from his hideout that he wants revenge for the death of his father. That means only one thing if you're sitting in the White House. The ayatollah is threatening Donald Trump personally. So Trump instantly responded that he would destroy every part of Iran if there was an attempt on his life. It's one foot forward and three steps back. That's the way it is with this war. If the new supreme leader is calling on his citizens, wherever they are, to go for Trump, then this war is not going to end soon.

Nato doesn't know where it is with Donald Trump

The Nato summit in Ankara was as confusing as ever for those taking part. Donald Trump was in their midst and sounding off about the alliance being rubbish and not spending enough money on defence and failing to support the US in its war with Iran. And yet, at the end, Trump said he loved everyone, everyone loved him and the alliance had a bright future. Or words to that effect. Generally what Trump says in public is what he means. So at some stage in the summit, Trump must have thought to himself: "This organisation isn't so bad after all. Everyone is being so nice to me and when I want a quick nap no one jogs my arm." So when it was over, it was all sweetness and light. How long this will last we will have to see, especially now that the US and Iran have gone back to battering each other, and the issue of who runs the Strait of Hormuz remains as fuzzy as ever. It's never going to be a Nato war, but at some point the alliance will have to give more backing to the US, if only for the sake of the future of the whole of the Middle East.

Iran thinks it's winning. It's not

Every time the ceasefire between the US and Iran breaks it's the generals and mullahs in Tehran who start it by loosing off drones and missiles at ships which dare to take the southern route through the Strait of Hormuz, ie the Omani side which is protected by US warships. Why they're doing this is obvious. They want all shipping companies to obey their demands whch is for all ships to use the northern side of the strait, ie near Iran, which means they can control and eventually charge companies for the privilege. But every time Tehran orders drone attacks on shipping, violating the ceasefire, they get slammed by the US military. More air defence systems, drone factories, communications sites etc etc get destroyed. Iran is losing this current argument but still thinks it's winning. Tehran and especially the leaders of the Islamic Rebolutionary Guard Corps, are deluding themselves. The US Navy is not going to go away. It's there for the duration, and the more times the ceasefire is breached, the more strikes Iran will get from US bombs and missiles. When will they get the message? The big question is, does Iran actually want peace or does it think that by fighting for control of the Strait of Hormuz it will just have to carry on confronting the US....for ever? This is a hopeless strategy and eventually the US will actually win because so much of Iran's military infrastructure will be destroyed that it won't be able to answer back. But while the Iranian regime thinks it's winning, there will be no peace, just a constant violation of the ceasefire. The key thing for Donald Trump is that if he stays the course, Iran will eventually get the message and go for peace.

It's back to war with Iran as Trump calls its leaders "scum".

Donald Trump never chooses his words carefully. He just tells it as he sees it. So, when he was asked about the latest tit-for-tat strikes between the US and Iran, Trump said the leaders of Iran were evil and "scum". He repeated it just to make sure the reporter who asked the question had got the message. What hope is there now of a proper peace deal? None whatsoever. The leaders in Tehran had clearly decided to launch attacks on three ships in the Strait of Hormuz to coincide with the funeral of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the Nato summit in Ankara. They have heard the millions of Iranians attending the funeral in the streets of Tehran and other cities calling for revenge and decided to incite them into even hatred and anger against the US. Launching the drone and missile strikes, and then retaliating for US attacks with more than 80 launches against American bases in Bahrain and Kuwait was the Iranian regime's strategy to show the people that their brave military were protecting the country from American domination. Will the Iranian people be fooled? Don't they remember the slaughter in the streets not that long ago when their protests against the regime were met with brutality and mass killing? The talks in Switzerland between the US and Iran and intermediaries look doomed to fail. Trump doesn't seem to care. I suspect the talks WILL continue, but if Iran continues to behave the way it did on Tuesday- attacking the three ships - it will all be for nothing. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER. ROWANVALE BOOKS, WATERSTONES, AMAZON.

An oil tanker on fire shows Iran means business

Amidst the so-called negotiations between the US and Iran and the funeral of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, attended by millions seeking revenge, the Tehran regime is making it clear who is boss in the Strait of Hormuz. Donald Trump is being humiliated every time the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps ignores the "deal" reached with Washington anhd attacks yet another oil tanker, as they did today. Why? Because it was apparently using the wrong shipping route through the strait. A projectile was fired at the tanker, setting it on fire, because it was hugging the Omani coastline, instead of passing on the southern (Iranian) side. This is what is going to happen until every ship uses the route designated by Tehran. The mullahs and Iranian generals are getting away with it because they know Trump is desperate to hang on to the deal. In fact what Trump should do is reimpose the naval blockade of Iranian ports every time the IRGC aims a projectile at a tanker. If they are allowed to get away with it, this will be the future of the Strait of Hormuz. It will be controlled by the IRGC. Trump cannot let that happen. So he should take a tough line and make no concessions. There is no alternative. Otherwise, shipping companies will be punished every time they try to use the northern route through the strait. Punish the IRGC or do their bidding? There is only one answer.

Will Trump intervene over England's red card player?

It is pretty extraordinary that President Trump felt he was entitled to ring the head of FIFA and suggest that the red card handed to the US football team's number one striker should not disqualify him from playing in the World Cup game tonight against Belgium.. What I liked most was when Trump said he knew about these things and didn't think the player had caused a foul. Well, we all have views abouyt fouls on football pitches and it's rare for anyone to agree with the referee. So Trump is like one of us. But to pick up the phone and ring FIFA to get the suspension delayed for a year, that is a privilege we don't have. So, if you're Belgian, it all looks like a bit of corrupt inside dealing. The FIFA boss was very happy to do what Trump wanted, and I expect he called him Donald. Now that the England team have lost a player for the next match vecause of a red card, perhaps Trump can make a phone call for him as well. That would be more even-handed. But I don't expect Trump will do that. He doesn't care about the England team. He just wants the US to win the World Cup. It's a bigger scandal than doping. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER IN PAPERBACK. AMAZON, WATERSTONES, ROWANVALE BOOKS.

Nato at yet another crossroads

Nato has had a pretty disastrous period in recent years and now, with its next summit due this coming week, there will no doubt be a call for resurgence and more spending and closer ties and a united front against Russia. But will it mean anything? Alliance members are still struggling to find the money for all the new equipment and expertise required to fight the next war, or, hopefully, deter the next war, and it could be years before the whole organisation is, as it were, fighting fit for the future. Donald Trump has been scathing about Nato for so long, one wonders whether he will ever become a fan again. He will be at the Nato summit and will no doubt barge his way through the various leaders and chat up the only people he still seems to like, such as President Erdogan of Turkey and, for some odd reason, President Macron of France. I say odd, because the two are as unalike as you could imagine but Trump likes Macron. I think he's also fascinated by his much older wife. I doubt he will bother with poor Keir Starmer who is on his way out and whatever he says at the summit won't count, especially after the very modest amount of extra money he has agreed to spend on defence, as outlined by the Defence Investment Plan. Andy Burnham will be prime minister a week or so after Starmer returns from the summit, so no one will be interested in what Starmer says, apart from goodbye. Cruel, but true. Whether Nato will survive will depend on whether Trump has had a rethink and feels the alliance isn't such a bad thing after all. That just may happen, especially if everyone flatters him like he's some sort of Hollywood icon or whatever.