Thursday, 23 July 2026

Is Trump preparing for a big escalation in the war with Iran?

We have now had more than ten days of US raids on Iranian military targets, aimed at degrading the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' ability to attack ships in the Strait of Hormuz. But it's still not having the affect Trump is looking for which is a full backdown by Tehran and a return to negotiations. As a consequence, I think there is now a strong chance that Trump will up the ante and focus far more on the IRGC itself. This might even involve a temporary landing of troops in Iran to destroy an IRGC stronghold. If this happens, it will be seen as the biggest escalation of the war and a dangerous one because of the rik of casualties on the American side. But something has to happen. The US can't just launch raids every night on the same old targets - air defence systems, communications sites, maritime units, drone storage sites etc for months and months. A new phase must surely be coming, unless Tehran suddenly caves in and begs to go back to Switzerland for talks. There has been no begging so far, whatever Trump claims. So, my prediction is, watch out, Iran. Something bigger is about to happen that could send the IRGC reeling.

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