Saturday 9 February 2019

Brexit exit is 58 days away and then what?

It is almost criminal, and certainly unbelievable, that the United Kingdom will be leaving the European Union in 58 days time and yet there is not a single person either in this country or in the 27 other European nations who knows what is going to happen. For sure. Lots of suggestions and predictions and scenarios but no one really has much of a clue. There are plenty of people who think they know what is best for this country, most of them diametrically opposed to each other, but all we have to go on is Theresa May endlessly saying that the UK WILL leave the EU on March 29 whatever happens between now and then. I don't think it's a negotiating point or a clever blackmail plan to force critics to support her deal. I just think Theresa has that date in her head and nothing will move her from it. It's like an essential part of the mandate which she believes the people of this country - well the Leavers - gave her when they voted in the referendum in 2016. To be honest I don't think most people worry about whether it's March 29 or September 30 or whatever. But for Theresa, anything after March 29 would be an admission of failure on her part. It's all a part of her stubbornness. I'm not against stubbornness provided it's part of a grand political strategy that will lead to the best solution in the end. But I fear in her case, it's stubbornness because that's the way she is. I still believe that it would be better to get her wretched Brexit deal signed and approved and then at least we have a foundation upon which to work to negotiate a proper trade relationship with the EU over the next two years or so. But I no longer believe the House of Commons is capable of approving anything fixed by Theresa May. Too many Conservative rebels and Labour MPs want a different form of Brexit. Jeremy Corbyn, the Labour "leader" who has been asleep for the last two years has come up with a five-point plan at the last minute which , summed up in three words, amounts to a "very soft Brexit". In other words, so soft that it looks remarkably like still being part of the EU - ie remaining in the customs union and in the single market. All fine, especially for a Remainer like me, but the Brexiteers who want total separation from everything EUish , this isn't going to get approved in Parliament. And why has it taken so long for Corbyn to produce his blueprint, if you can call it that? He has just managed totally to stir up the pot and presented it as if Theresa is going to jump at the chance of supporting it. She didn't and won't. So the prime minister will go on tripping back and forth to Brussels hoping for a change of mind from the increasingly stony-faced EU leaders and bureaucrats. I fear that I shall be writing a similar sort of blog in a month's time with the last few days before Brexit day ticking away. It's a total shambles.

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